Skip to main content

tv   Bloomberg Surveillance  Bloomberg  February 9, 2022 6:00am-7:00am EST

6:00 am
trend-less market. >> i think that corporate america can handle higher yields. >> markets are facing less liquidity and tightening economy overall. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: can we burn the masks? good morning, good morning, this is bloomberg surveillance live alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz i am jonathan ferro. futures up .7%. are we moving on from omicron? tom: you see that and may be in the market as well. the governor has tough decisions to make and i believe a wednesday announcement on losing the masks indoors in new york may be where we are at. jonathan: the democrats are finding a different variant. it is called the midterms. tom: i don't agree -- sorry, i
6:01 am
do agree. jonathan: make your mind up. tom: i do agree. yes, i like tang better than orangeina, moving on. what i read out of san francisco is that it is to do with due vault county. i'm worried about what are they going to do about mask mandates on 59th street? jonathan: lisa, schools is what you are worrying about? lisa: in two weeks that expires. is it politics, the midterm elections that is the new variant, or is this a scientifically driven response? i find it fascinating this move comes after a series of polls shows that americans are more tired of the pandemic and would like to see some of the aspects dropped than they are worried about death and destruction. it seems like the population is moving on. jonathan: do think that is contributing to the list in the equity market? lisa: i wouldn't take it that
6:02 am
far. this seems like a buy the dip moment. on that level i can't imagine people in the market care about the pandemic anymore because they shrugged that off for months. jonathan: this market is shrugging everything off, settling down in the bonded equity market. tom: maybe the inflation report tomorrow is bigger than the jobs report on friday. it is nuanced. what i would suggest is once again foreign-exchange does not signal. to me that is a vote of confidence that we want to get 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 rate hikes. jonathan: equity futures up .7% on the s&p, yields down lower three basis points. lisa: how much is the move we are seeing in the bond market a reassessment of how hawkish fed and ecb officials will be? we will hear from the fed governor as well as the cleveland president at 10:30 and
6:03 am
12:30 eastern time respectively ahead of the cpi report tomorrow. the expectation is 7.3 percent inflation, consumer prices increasing that much would be the highest level going back to the early 1980's. how does this factor into the real yield discussion and real wage discussion? how much are wages dropping on a real basis? it leads to consumer dissatisfaction that we see in a number of surveys, including the university of michigan that comes out friday. two: 30 pm president biden is meeting with ceos of electric facilities and duke energy. how do they invest to avoid the spike in gasoline prices? aaa gasoline prices rising to the highest in the united states going back to about seven years, almost $3.50 on average.this for the variant called the midterms.
6:04 am
disney is reporting earnings, the chief executive officer is expected to join bloomberg around 5:30 p.m. how are they dealing with the resurgence to their parks, is that a viable place to go, and how much will that pick up with people thinking it is over? the streaming wars, especially after netflix that we saw last week. jonathan: netflix had a hard time. a new kardashians is coming to hulu, which i know you are excited about. in april. on the international scene that will stream on disney plus, so i'm told. tom: who? jonathan: disney plus, the kardashians, hulu. late spring. that's a promo. any time, kendell, anytime. this came from the ecb, he said
6:05 am
i would not do zeus from what has happened in recent days that there is an ecb calendar that corresponds to an underlying calendar of markets. went on to say that perhaps reactions were very high and too high in recent days. is that the ecb pushing back a bit? >> the ecb clearly signaled that a shift is coming, right? the question is how big the shift is. we have to put into perspective we have not had ecb tightening since 2011. the ecb is heading to proper tightening this year, it is a historical thing. we can discuss whether they would be ready to raise rates, with the specific timing is, but the bottom line is this will be a year big change for the ecb and the tweaks in communication are tactical around that. jonathan: do think it could be year of euro outperformance? what will drive that? jens: when the ecb went into
6:06 am
negative and 2014 and they did their first ever qe in 2015, we had very pronounced euro weakness. 20% against the dollar. also very significant moves against other global currencies. the euro has been on almost a long-term hangover from those policies since then. therefore, if there is a reversal it could be very very important. tom: i look at where we are, let's go to denmark which has to deal with the big countries like germany, and i will nail this, where is the neutral rate? we don't have a clue, do we? jens: i think that that is a very key part. tom: very danish too. jens: danish with a little bit of money accent.
6:07 am
[laughter -- little bit of an unusual accent. [laughter] one thing they are searching for is a clue of what the terminal rate is. essentially what you have seen happening in yield curves around the world over the last couple of months is that we have been willing to front load a lot of tightening. we've seen in the u.s. and the u.k. and we are starting to see it in europe where the ecb will hike 50 basis points this year. what the market has not been willing to do is to say this is going to be a sustained tightening cycle that takes policy rates to relatively higher levels, higher than they were in the previous cycle. that is because it is ingrained doubt that the market can take any hikes at all. i think that is still out there. it has not been changing just because we have been pricing and aggressive fed tightening. we still have low terminal
6:08 am
rates. there is good academic work on what the rate really is? no. i think it is something that we are searching for. lisa: there is debate over the past dollar weakness in terms of the euro gaining steam in the u.s. will the frontloading lead to a weakening in the u.s. economy or just simply for the fed to back off and allow a slow, gradual normalization, a goldilocks scenario that a lot of people are hoping for? jens: the first thing that i would say is that we have been pricing incrementally more hikes. a couple months ago we barely had one hike price and now we are sniffing at five. we are moving fast. we knew there was a limit to how much would really be realistic, whether it was five or six, then we could say that that fed support for the dollar will be short-lived at there will be other factors dominating, stronger global growth, ecb tightening, and so forth.
6:09 am
the problem is that the ecb is sending a signal, but at the same time the fed is not willing to say too much. we have not had any pushback on market pricing from the fed and we price more and more. we could certainly be on a path where we have consecutive hikes in march and may and then the market will think about a seven-hike scenario. it is not priced in fully, but we continue to price in incremental hawkish nice and that has been part of the reason why we have not been -- hawkishness and that's part of the reason why we have not seen the dollar stop rallying. can i make one more point? the reason for the u.s. outlook is essentially the point that lisa made in the introduction around real wages. we are at a point in the cycle where inflation is a major issue. the fed is responding to that. if you look at the real economy, disposable income growth is heading into trouble.
6:10 am
growth expectations are coming down. you can look at the bloomberg consensus, it has been coming down for nine months. that perspective at some point the growth is going to start to worry at least some people, in that could be really important for the dollar. jonathan: can you teach some danish, proper danish? give him a line. tom: eric emails in, don't even try. jens: it is not an easy language. it is spelled like it was 500 years ago. jonathan: jens this morning, your danish is "unusual." what were you trying to say? tom: where is the neutral rate? some of the greatest young academics that we have on europe was titanic a decade ago. this is real simple, we don't
6:11 am
know where the terminal rate is on anything. that is why we are flying blind every morning. jonathan: i can't believe that that book is 10 years old, that is frightening. i think it is that long. my second point to make it simple for the people who don't really understand that side of the world we are talking about, how far the ecb can take things, how far the federal reserve can take things before ultimately they have to stop. lisa: before something breaks and the yield curve is flattening or not getting a good signal. you should write a book, what is the terminal rate, we don't know, in every language around the world. jonathan: your danish is unusual. the s&p up .7%, there is a list this morning. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> hong kong reported a record
6:12 am
of more than 1100 new coronavirus cases today. many related to family gatherings during the lunar new year. in new york the state reportedly will drop its stringent indoor mask mandate according to the new york times. the mandate requires businesses to ask customers for proof of vaccination or require mask wearing. protesters blocking traffic between canada and detroit after a supply chain has already worn thin. there has been little impact so far, but the situation could get worse in days. demonstrators are showing their opposition to vaccine rules. an agreement was reached during the trump administration. u.s. government data found china bought 63% of the extra goods promised as part of 200 billion
6:13 am
dollars in purchases. the biden administration said that it would hold china accountable. the fiscal year forecast ending in march, the japanese automakers stuck to a conservative outlook. toyota sees various factors driving earnings, favorable exchange rate and rising prices. global news, 24 hours a day on-air and on quicktake, powered by more than 2,700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. ♪
6:14 am
6:15 am
6:16 am
6:17 am
6:18 am
>> we still don't have any prediction of what president putin will do, we can't control what russia will do next. but we can do and what president macron played a role in doing yesterday is making it clear to our allies and partners there will be consequences. jonathan: your equity market is up higher by .7% on the s&p on the nasdaq, up .9%. yields lower in italy 192.16. the euro-dollar 11434. crude down, $88.77.
6:19 am
congress, stocks getting behind the effort of senator schumer recently. tom: i take the word trading seriously. will they own equities in this. of american capitalism? let me do the math and you can dive in with anne-marie on the trading. our bloomberg washington correspondent. we will hear from the governor of new york schedule today, we've heard from oregon and others about an end to the mask mandate. the cdc they said now is not the moment. i am lost. it is like the backside of albert camu's the plague. what is the level of mask chaos in the white house and inside the beltway? anne-marie: jen psaki gets questions about this every day.
6:20 am
we saw a number of democratic states lifting mask mandate and governor holcomb in new york will be doing the same today. when jen psaki continues to say is she puts the finger on the cdc. we will provide the guidance that the cdc provides. is this politically motivated? if the cdc hasn't moved but states are moving is this the midterm elections? the electorate is kind of over these masks. lisa: mask mandates, inflation, or the trading band situation. is schumer shifting gears and taking a much harder line on this? jens: republicans -- anne-marie: republicans as well. it is potentially speaker pelosi
6:21 am
getting in the way. maybe speaker pelosi is onboard. that is the direction of travel. if republicans say we were able to get back congress this is one of the first things we're going to do and democrats are unable to do it. it seems like a number of people who are potentially on the sidelines are coming on board. this might have bipartisan support and this would not be on individual lawmakers. but the senator is drafting would be on family members as well. this would go further than some of the legislation that is on the books. lisa: i feel like we are playing legislative whack-a-mole, but that is what it feels like an washington, d.c. and the democrats and various issues they are trying to cater to. that brings us to president biden meeting with the head of utilities to talk about build back better. are they going to break this off and do something with it, or is
6:22 am
it another issue to put into whack-a-mole congress? annemarie: i doubt he is even going to utter the word "build back better." there has been a tactical shift at the white house to not use that term anymore but to talk about the issues and the potential chunks that were supposed to be part of that legislation they can see get through. senator joe manchin has said that legislation as one piece of legislation is dead. he will talk about climate initiatives. $300 billion would go to solar and wind and all of these potential issues and provisions to boost the grid, etc. you need these massive utility companies. he is doing what he did last week and is bringing corporate america to sell his message.last year they were not able to do it. tom: we will talk about this in the next hour. let me get out in front of it.
6:23 am
from your view at the white house is the relationship between biden and micron changed in the last -- biden and macron changed in the last 48 hours? annemarie: the white house is annoyed that micron has gone on this euro tour of diplomacy, but jen psaki will say that is not true. between last wednesday and today they spoke at least three times. secretary blinken on his way to australia will meet with the so-called quad members. he said that there has been a tabulation of at least 200 when it comes to virtual meetings, phone calls, and in person meetings with their allies regarding what they are going to do with ukraine. i think that they want to show a united front. they think maybe macron has gone a little overboard in his charm offensive, though they are not saying it publicly. for the most part macron has kept up-to-date with his allies.
6:24 am
phone calls with president biden and he met last night with chancellor schulz. jonathan: kardashian super fan and -- annemarie: i am not a kardashian super fan. that is for you. lisa: trash talking each other. jonathan: we have been around the world, serious diplomacy to try to work out what will happen. we made some breakthroughs in the last couple of days? lisa: i have difficulty trying to understand the different rhetoric. what was said between emmanuel macron and vladimir putin, where do alliances stand with how closely aligned germany is with the u.s. and nord stream 2, that it won't be operational given the fact it is highly unlikely they will ditch the plan. i have a hard time understanding exactly where we are. jonathan: can we conclude that tom is jealous of the way that europeans do things? the vacations and the length of the lunches? tom: i am jealous and i am also
6:25 am
wrong. there is a unit out there, they measure this stuff, and they measure in the bloomberg building, what is the length of a lunch? brussels has the shortest in the eu, 22 minutes. jonathan: they have surveyed this? who has the longest lunch? tom: the bloomberg building in london. jonathan: have you seen the survey, lisa? lisa: is it really there? of course you are making it up. i would guess the shortest is in germany and the longest i would guess is france and spain. jonathan: stereotypes is just not what i am about. tom: so sensitive. jonathan: i expected better from both of you. lisa: are you taking the moral
6:26 am
high ground? jonathan: working out and having a proper diet and i think khloe does a great job. i would love to see you on revenge body. yields lower for basis points. this is bloomberg. ♪
6:27 am
6:28 am
6:29 am
6:30 am
jonathan: lisa has data. lisa, data. who has the longest lunch? lisa: greece and france. greece is three hours, that is number one. spain is three hours, france is two. there is not a survey. i wasn't looking up who has the shortest. jonathan: three hours for lunch? that is insane. futures up .7%. that is my final word. the s&p 500 up .7 percent, the nasdaq 100 with a really tidy list. the s&p coming into today at 5% or so and taking another bite out of the losses in the early part of trading. the bond market backing away
6:31 am
from recent highs, inching closer to the line in the sand, 2%. the highs of the session 192 34 where the highs yesterday and we come in four basis points. just to setting the tone going into cpi tomorrow, that will be the big one. i am hearing a lot of people talking about this, the balance of risks. do we move more on the downside surprise or? an upside surprise --upside surprise? lisa: how much have we taken away the surprise if it is a downside surprise? it is that buy the dip, a complete reaction to the imbalance that people were saying that there will probably be a bigger market response to a downside surprise. jonathan: really setting the tone for the cpi and how we respond going into march. that big decision for the federal reserve in the middle of that month. the ecb will have a decision as well.
6:32 am
if you look at the european debt market looking at italy, backing away, seven straight days yields higher. this morning yields lower. the ecb, the governing councilmember from france, inching back a little big in the price action we've seen over the past week or so, soothing words for the bond market. whether that sticks, t.k., remains to be seen. tom: we haven't gotten to a 19 handle on the vix. right now what we are going to say is the research has gotten better since the crisis, 2007-2008. research is better. every once in a while exceptional pieces, you say this ruined my afternoon i have to read every word. at the bridgewater shop they wrote a brilliant note on the dynamics of what we've got with rate and balance sheet changes at the central bank. rebecca patterson of bridgewater
6:33 am
joins us this morning. congratulations on a thought-provoking note. speaking of the mathematics of columbia and ex-fed, how does that fold into your guesstimate? rebecca: that was very kind of you so early in the morning. tom: i am only kind early in the morning. rebecca: in terms of the fed i really think they are in one of the most difficult situations in our lifetime and that you still have very strong nominal demand even if growth moderates. we expect nominal demand will be over consensus expectations. inflation well over expectations in our view is 12 months from now cpi is probably going to be closer to a five figure, not the three-ish. what does the fed do?
6:34 am
if they tighten too much they risk slowing down the economy, starting a recession, they don't want to do that. they're dealing with pandemic-related data that doesn't give them as much confidence and, i am being generous, by 2018 tightening both rates and quantitative tightening gave us a 20% selloff. they don't want to go too fast but they want to make sure that inflation expectations do not get de-anchored. you will see more rate hikes than what has been priced in so far over the next couple of years, but not as much as needed to get inflation back down to the 2% target. i love the nominal analysis. i want to take it over to a guy who has looked at the social dynamics and social aspects of this. his recent interview with david rubenstein is eliminating. if we get a 5% inflation rate what is the societal dispersion, the effect of 5% inflation
6:35 am
between the haves and have-nots? rebecca: that is a great point and something that the fed is also looking at. one of the reasons they will lead relatively more on balance sheet than rates is it will hit small businesses relatively more. you will hit the lower social economic cohort more biggest they rely relatively more on credit cards. that is one of the reasons that the fed would prefer to do a balance of these tools rather than just rate hikes. as we are looking at the difference -- the different quintiles of wealth in the united states today one good thing, great thing, is that the fiscal transfers that we got in 2020 and 2021 have created more wealth for everybody. you have seen wealth at the bottom cohort go up significantly. their balance sheets are stronger and their debt levels are relatively lower. they are seeing big wage increases. high inflation, especially gas and energy and food prices, they
6:36 am
are definitely going to be a problem, but at least it is happening against this backdrop where the starting point is so much stronger than it has been coming out of past recessions. lisa: this dynamic of negative real wage growth particularly at the lower income levels is one of the reasons why people are saying we won't get to the 5% level in 12 months. it will be lower than that because realistically the economy will have to slow and we are seeing that in consumer sentiment data. how do you push back? rebecca: i think we will see stronger nominal growth for a couple of reasons. one is the reopening. as omicron continues to fade, hopefully, and hopefully we have no new variants we will see people going out to restaurants more and spending more on travel, etc. part of that is the shift from goods to services but overall we think that continues to support growth. more importantly we think that we will see an inventory rebuild. how it affects gdp is wonky.
6:37 am
i don't want to go into that, but i do think that inventory rebuild will continue to create demand, which will create jobs, which will create incomes and spending. third, we think that we are in the early stages of a capex cycle which is mainly tech, we think that it will be mainly broad-based which will be a support for growth. you have 11 million job openings now. while the pandemic is slowing down and it will bring some people back to the labor market, we think to get all of those people back in, to reduce that gap, we will see significantly higher wages. we think that the wage growth will be sticky, commodity prices are likely to be sticky, house prices are likely to be sticky. all of those because supply cannot meet demand. lisa: within this scenario, 5% inflation, 12 months out means a series bond market selloff. a complete recalibration of
6:38 am
longer-term real yields, longer-term base rates the fed can really address. how can the market continued to climb and the economy continued to be stronger than it has been pre-pandemic with that kind of market turmoil? rebecca: you hit the nail on the head. what we are shifting into is an inflection point versus the last 20-30 years. we had central banks fighting deflationary risks. that was pushing people out into more risky assets, into more stocks and longer duration stocks because they benefit from that liquidity. where we were left is investors long bonds come along tech and growth stocks specifically, and guess who has the most? the u.s. we are seeing a reversal of that. higher inflation pushing central banks to tighten, pushing people out of those long duration stocks, out of those bonds.
6:39 am
i think that that leaves the u.s. stock market relatively more vulnerable than a lot of markets overseas. we are not bearish on u.s. equities. we think that the opportunities this year, for the first time in many years, will be more outside the u.s. than in for reasons i just cited. tom: i want to go to your dark and clouded past and talk dollar exchange. it is amazing the foreign-exchange tightness, the range bound nature of it. which way does dollar break? rebecca: we are wrestling with that internally. we have a mixed view on the dollar. we are bearish on the dollar get some of the currencies that we think will benefit more from commodity rises, from the inflation cycle, and we are bullish dollar against some of the other reserve currencies for the central banks face the same amount of pressure. japan would be a good example. or something like china where we see them actually easing, and we think there is more easing to come. the interesting thing now is
6:40 am
that the dollar, you do have the fed tightening cycle that is just warming up now and higher yields traditionally have been a big support for a currency. we also have a pretty wide current account deficit so a big external finance and need. what i mentioned a minute ago about all of the people who have gone into the u.s., foreign allocations come u.s. stocks and bonds are the highest that they've been since the mid-1980's. if we see a piece of that coming out, it is harder to finance our current account deficit. that will be a pretty big parish dollar pressure. i think that is part of the reason in january possibly that we saw the dollar weaker despite yields going up, that tech selloff and some of those foreign investors maybe pulling back a bit. that will be a much more unusual year for the dollar than you would normally expect in a tightening cycle. watch money. watch where you see the foreign capital going in and out of u.s. bonds and u.s. stocks. jonathan: that was a clinic.
6:41 am
thank you. we appreciate it. europe is a big piece of this story. the team and morgan stanley saying this, we expect eu equity outperformance to continue given a micro backdrop, bullish trends, and ratios for the normalized already ecb pivot reinforces value rotation and we stay overweight to financials, commodities, and ftse. tom: in the overlay to our global wall street audience come you are better than i am, but bnp paribas is trying to find -- jonathan: that pick up in rates, we can discuss that another time. futures up .7% on the s&p, a lift on the nasdaq up almost 1%. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪
6:42 am
>> in your judge granted bail for two people. the cryptocurrency was stolen in a 2016 hack of the bit currency exchange. they were arrested yesterday. the government says they seized about $3.6 billion in cryptocurrency from the couple. president biden steps of his push for more government spending on energy and climate measures. he meets with the leaders of some of the nation's largest electric utilities. the president's economic agenda includes 300 billion dollars in tax credit for wind and solar power, nuclear and other items that have been backed by utilities. in the u.k. prime minister boris johnson is trying to shore up support within the conservative party. johnson has put morgan in charge of delivering the benefits of brexit. it was part of a mini shuffle of ministers to ride out the political storm from a series of scandals. a bond manager says that even
6:43 am
after a correction in tech stocks and surging yields investors don't understand the risks they are taking. >> i think that there is a profound lack of appreciation for how dangerous the market is and how embedded all of this liquidity is in financial systems. >> asset prices have been grossly inflated by years of rock-bottom interest rates and quantitative easing. global news, 24 hours a day on-air and on quicktake, powered by more than 2,700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. ♪
6:44 am
6:45 am
6:46 am
6:47 am
>> it is biologically impossible to eliminate and efficiently
6:48 am
spreading respiratory virus with an animal host. if someone wrote that as an essay question on a test i would think that is the wrong answer on how to deal with the virus. jonathan: tom keene, lisa abramowicz, i am tom farrow. the s&p up .7%. crude a bit softer, comfortably south, $80 94 cents. euro-dollar just about positive. coming back in a bit. euro-dollar 11442. positive a little more than .1 %. what is about to happen in new york, governor hochul about to get rid of the mask mandate. what is happening in hong kong, china? tom: it is a different world and
6:49 am
in hong kong it is a different world than the olympics in beijing. we get it needed the on global wall street thinking in hong kong. it is an absolute shock. we are a distance from what you are living, but to see that there are three nonstop flights from hong kong to singapore 1600 miles off of singapore air with no flights is jaw-dropping. is hong kong moving to singapore? >> hong kong has always been branded as asia's world series but has been dubbed on social media as asia's isolated city. the airport essentially shut as is the crossing to mainland china. it is absolutely hammering sentiment within hong kong and having an effect on the economy to the point that people moving out of hong kong are leaving in droves. the expatriate community is leaving for roles elsewhere in regional asia or back to where they came from in the first
6:50 am
place. there are those who are leaving over concerns over civil liberties with the political backdrop happening here over the past three years. and you take it all you have to say sentiment towards hong kong as a major financial hub is at a low point. tom: with immense respect to what you at bloomberg hong kong are putting up with, what is your timeline when things get better in hong kong with this pandemic? >> before we can even think about it it feels like we've gone back to where we started. hong kong this week has announced another round a very strict restrictions of movement and activities. everything from playgrounds to bars are closed or restricted. that is where we started in january 2020, and here we are and we don't seem to yet have an end game.
6:51 am
the vaccination rate has been lagging. it is picking up now. they initially want to switch away from the zero policy that they describe it as. on the ground that is not what is happening. the restrictions continue. experts say the omicron is a game changer when it comes to trying to contain the variant. that is where hong kong is stuck right now. lisa: how much social unrest is there under the surface? enda: i think there is a lot of anxiety on the ground, and a lot of definitely frustrations. you obviously have the political story that has been going for some years, concerns about the political crackdown on civil liberties will stop now you have the concerns about the use of force and trying to ram through the covid zero strategy. trying to go back to what is the endgame. you have to question, what is
6:52 am
the way out? lisa: there is a huge concern for the global economy let alone the health concern. if china is forced to drop it zero covid policy that will disrupt supply chains, because a huge hit the global economy. have you been surprised how little you have seen big multinational companies direct some of their trade away from china, some of their factories outside of that nation? enda: the headline kind of story coming into the pandemic was that there would be re-shoring because of trade with the u.s. and disruption from the pandemic. that hasn't happened on the major scale. factories in southeast asia have been relocating back into china. factory managers tell me that china being open for business internally because of covid zero has allowed manufacturing to remain on track and meet global demand that global consumers have been buying. that is the flipside of china zero policy outside looking in.
6:53 am
from the inside looking out one of the clear benefits apart from the health dividends has been that manufacturing is going that help the economy recover. you would notice it in global supply chains. tom: what has real estate done? residential rents or commercial, what is the real estate dynamic given this true shock? enda: in hong kong, for example, it has been a bumper few years in the real estate story. prices were up last year but this year they are projected to start coming down. there are projections to slide by maybe 5%. the commercial side is under pressure too because of the pandemic and structural issues as people now work from home. the fed raising interest rates won't do a lot for the hong kong property market. the china property market, that is all about the stress in the
6:54 am
credit market from the big property developers. that is why the policymakers there have changed gear going in the opposite direction supporting the housing sector. one would expect a floor in china's housing market this year. jonathan: it is good to catch up as always. james major of businessweek running a brilliant story, the global economy risks a big shock without china's covid zero policy. lisa: basically the ideas that you can see a health crisis and all of the shipping lines contract in addition to factory should they open their policies and see a rash of infections. there's not any collective immunity that can prevent that kind of pandemic wave. jonathan: poland, the house minister in a news conference in warsaw saying seeing the end of the covid-19 pandemic. countries seem to be onside with that view. tom: cases, great news,
6:55 am
particularly regional dynamics, hospitalizations, not great news, but really, really good news. deaths have not rolled over, there are great articles on research showing omicron is about a huge number of people sick and it has affected people who are older and fossils and that. jonathan: are you describing someone in particular? tom: i feel lucky. i am fully vaccinated and fully boosted. i am not as sick as others. they may clear within the research that these older people dying are not boosted. jonathan: that is the problem right now? tom: i digress to our johns hopkins crew. jonathan: in new york and sitting here at the moment has improved in a monster way. lisa: which is why you are
6:56 am
seeing the mask mandate dropped today. in two weeks our kids going to get to throw away their masks? jonathan: can you make a decision on one without doing the same thing on the other? does that make sense? lisa: i am shrugging. i can't answer that for you. ♪
6:57 am
6:58 am
6:59 am
7:00 am
♪ >> we are going to have a volatile but trendless market. >> we are in a rising rate environment. >> i think corporate america can handle higher yields. >> markets for the first time in quite some time are facing less liquidity and tightening economy overall. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: the mood improves for now. from new york city, for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. your equity market higher by more than 1% on the nasdaq, up 0.8% on the s&p. tom: 19 on the vix would be a big deal back to january 14, but right now, 20.73 on an early morning vix. i


info Stream Only

Uploaded by TV Archive on