tv Bloomberg Markets Bloomberg February 15, 2022 1:00pm-2:00pm EST
reservations over a russian statement that it was beginning a partial pullback of troops from the ukrainian border. >> now this has to be about working resolutely and with determination for a peaceful resolution to this crisis. the fact that we are hearing that some troops are being withdrawn is a good sign and we hope that more will follow. mark: president putin told reporters that the talks with the chancellor were businesslike and he is hoping for a diplomatic solution to tensions with the u.s. and its allies, but he warned that moscow will not wait forever for the west to address it demande ukraine never join native. the president will speak at 3:30 p.m. on the crisis today and we will bring in his remarks live. there is more fallout from the truck led demonstrations that have paralyzed ottawa.
the police chief, whose hands off approach to the crisis, has drawn criticism and has resigned, according to multiple reports. his decision comes a day after the prime minister invoked emergency powers to ease the protests and choke off money to demonstrators. senate republicans have moved to install the banking panel vote on the five nominees to the federal reserve, as part of their efforts to block sarah bloom raskin's nomination as the vice chair for supervision. pat toomey said today that "basic questions have not been adequately addressed and the committee should not proceed with a vote on sarah bloom raskin until they are." global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i'm mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. ♪
>> good afternoon. from new york, it is 1:00 p.m., six opium in london and i'm matt miller. welcome to "bloomberg markets." here are the stories we are following for you from around the world. the latest on ukraine as president biden prepares to address the country on the situation later this afternoon. in this week's etf iq, we look at the unexpected cause of heavy outflows in two of the largest funds. and leisure travel demand wars back, we will discuss -- roars back, we will discuss that on the back of marriott's earnings beat this morning. now a check of the markets. we have a rally on our hands.the s&p is up about 1.1%, this on the back of
a headline that says that russia does plan on pulling back troops after exercises. i will point out that although we have gained back everything that we lost yesterday, and then some, we still had friday's losses. we lost 1.9% on friday, for tens of 1% yesterday, so back to about half of what we lost in those wo combined. -- two combine. investors are feeling safe enough to let go of federal debt. and you can also see the bloomberg dollar index coming off, the dollar has been a safe haven lately. and oil is coming down, right now 4% at a relatively high level with $91.86 for a barrel of west texas intermediate crude. president biden is going to address the nation at 3:30 p.m. on the situation in ukraine and joining us is avon hearst head of global political strategy,
geopolitical issues are what we usually talk to her about. and and wonder what you think first of all about the headline that drove markets higher today, tina. they seem to believe or put trust in the fact that the russians plan on pulling back a large portion of their troops. tina: i think that the markets want to believe that there will not be conflict and have taken what is more of a murmer as a signal. i do not think we are in signal territory yet, although i have been clear i do not think that the situation is inevitable. it's cautious optimism that is the best we can do. there are still over 100 battalions mobilized. matt: it seems like one of the demands from putin's administration is not really possible. they want to make sure that ukraine does not join nato, but isn't it part of the ukrainian
constitution and that direction? -- the ukraine constitution that they are heading that direction? that they are planning to join by the 20 30's? -- 2030's? tina: there is a lot entangled in the concept. nato has an open door policy, so not willing to give putin the security guarantee he seeks, that ukraine will never be allowed to join. russia also has objected to ukraine's earlier ambitions to become an eu association member. and at the core, let's remember that putin has said clearly in his own writing that he does not believe ukraine is a sovereign state at all. so, there is a lot going on here in the idea of a lot of investors saying, why do we keep poking the bear?
because it is not going to be enough. matt: what will he want the next? what does he want, what are his ultimate aims? tina: preventing what he has called the historical aberration of an independent and sovereign ukraine is one of them. at that will be difficult to do, barring a military takeover, invasion and everything else. i think that he will be willing to settle for what has already happened as a result of this troop mobilization, signaling to the world that he can undermine ukrainian's stability anytime he wants. he doesn't need to invade, he can just organize exercises along the borders. the biggest move today was not with the markets reacted to, it was what happened in the russian parliament, which was a vote to recognize the two regions in
southeastern ukraine that were the scene of the conflict in 2014, donetsk and luhansk. this is another lover putin is using to -- lever putin is using to get ukraine to secede. so hard and soft power initiatives going on. matt: what can he take? you have followed the troop mobilizations and have pointed out that in his current set up he could invade ukraine, but does not have enough troops there to occupy the country, so what can he do? tina: well, there is a lot of speculations flying around amongst military experts and security experts, um, but in my view is full-blown invasion is next to impossible for russia. the costs would be very high.
and the reason why i have said i think a pullback is possible is because putin has already managed to achieve important aims, one of them is to put into the mainstream this idea that russia's security interests are not respected. but there has been backlash as well, nord stream 2 and other considerations. the cost of invasion are very high. putin goal is to maintain optionality. if there is a pullback, the markets will rally, but this could happen again in six months, 18 months, six years time. matt: how important is nord stream 2 to him? and the flow of gas through other pipelines, does he need that to continue? tina: yes, but putin signed an agreement with president xi on the sidelines of the beijing winter olympics and he has a hedge going. it does not replace at the
economic contribution of russia's gas sales to the european union, but sending more gas to china is a useful hedge. it will not make up for this sanctions that will hit and china is not that good of a friend, but maintaining optionality is really the best way i think to read what is going on here. matt: are we moving back to the future in terms of the global paradigm? it seems like we are looking at a nato versus the soviet union? tina: it would be easier if we were going back to the future because we know what that map looks like. unfortunately, it is something much more fragmented and temporary, issue-based and episodic. and that is a nightmare for the markets. the cold war really was not bad for us. if anything, although conflict
is very bad, you know, for the people literally in the crosshairs, what we see now with subthreshold moves, cyberattacks and economic responses like sanctions, they are very messy, they way down the economy and they make the investment environment less predictable. matt: it is great to get your insight, we appreciate your time today. tino fordham from avon hearst. outside of geopolitical issues, investors are keeping their eyes on inflation. we had ppi data released this morning showing red-hot hot prices at the producer level. inflation also being felt when it comes to consumers in terms of rental prices. averag -- an growth of 8%, an all-time high. in december, u.s. home prices jumped to percent year-over-year for the month. and planet is leading the way with a more than 35% increase in
rent. what makes it even more difficult fo consumers to swallowr is getting out of rentals and into homes is becoming increasingly difficult as the mortgage rates rise to their highest level since the beginning of 2020. 3.69%, i believe, right now. and the supply, in terms of starter homes, is just not there. consumers are stuck if they have not gotten out yet in rentals. turning to breaking news we are looking at from the sec. they are probing the trading affiliates of by finance -- bin ance's u.s. operations. they are examining the relationship between the u.s. arm and two trading firms with ties to the founder. we will continue to bring you any developments on that. vacationers shrugged off concerns, we will discuss
let's dig deeper into the appetite for travel and bring in the founder and ceo of subscription travel, inspirato. this is brent handler. what you are offering is a luxury service. what you source is luxury homes for people who travel a lot and vacation a lot and offer them a subscription service, right? brent: right, thank you for having me. it's electrics obstruction that focuses on the high-end consumer. and we really offer those services and certainty that you would get it in star hotel, but we make it available in homes throughout the world.a n we manage -- and we manage and control of the homes, we actually take control of them and furnish of the homes, outfit them and provide the homes into service and it certainly -- and certainly is different from the
vacation rule that that you would get if you are going to go online to try to book something on your own. matt: what are we talking about, give us a ballpark cost and how often you have to use it to make it economical. brent: we have two subscriptions, when that a $600 a month and you pay-as-you-go. the average nightly rate is just over $1500 a night. and we have a very innovative subscription called inspirato pass, $2500 a month with no nightly rates, taxes over fees. you pay $2500 a month. and we have technology that uses an algorithm to provide you more than 1.8 million options where you can travel, and h option, depending on what you pick, you lease a certain number of days before you book your next reservation. that has been the growth engine. matt: if i am in for $2500 a month, how many nights can i
stay? you probably do not want people living in your properties. brent: you cannot live in the properties. if you book something, 30 days, you would have to wait 30 days before you book your next reservation. so depending upon what you book and when you book it, it depends on how often you can travel. but the platform works well because of the opacity that we provide for our partners. because we offer no price to our subscribers, the luxury brands are allowing us to purchase inventory at a fraction of the cost to anybody else who would be purchasing it. matt: fascinating, i could ask you a million more questions, but i want to get to the industry and the economy, what does it look like to you from 2020 until now? what bounce back have you seen in leisure travel? brent: we are 100% focused on leisure, so we were closed from mid-march to probably june.
the bounce back was very direct and very fast for us. we really believe that the affluent consumer uses travel as an essential service and they were not willing to forgo that. we have seen the bounce back really, really strong, really starting in 2020 and continuing through now. there's areas of softness, parts of the caribbean can be soft. even europe this summer is a little softer because what we see is when markets have strict mask mandates or if they still have covid restrictions, until they really start to loosen up we do not see as much forward-looking travel, but over the course of our 420 homes around the world we definitely have real headwind and we think that we are moving forward in
terms of the luxury traveler, particularly for homes versus hotels. matt: one of the most popular places to go, your most popular properties? brent: well, tahoe is extremely popular. lots of five-star availability. we have fantastic inventory there. big ski mountains like vale are popular. montana is growing into a new luxury market. overall, i would say everything but a little bit of the caribbean. and for the most part i think the booking windows will get shorter for places like europe, and they will be longer for domestic travelers. matt: sign me up for yellowstone. thanks for joining us, the founder and ceo of inspirato talking to us about the bounce back in leisure travel. still ahead, why heavy outflows in january from two of the biggest etf's were likely
matt: this is "bloomberg markets." time for our etf iq segment. with tech leading the rally today, we wanted to look at the invesco qqq, the fifth largest etf and its outflows in january were at the second largest since the dot com crash, driven by attacks loss harvesting -- tax loss harvesting. walk us through how this works and affected the q's. >> that is the biggest toy because of the number of outflows they saw, but buy is
the number one process. if you have a fun do you are holding and it loses money over a given time, you would sell of that security or that bond in december, then buy an etf to maintain exposure to whatever marketing equity -- equity market is. whether it is small cap, or whatever it may be, and he will hold it for that 30 day window, book those losses to offset any gains you have. then you will sell the etf and pick the stocks you want to buy in january or pick a different fund that you can precisely hold. what ends up happening is that causes etf's to have overwhelming seasonality of flows pretty much every single december and weak outflows for most januarys. matt: we saw huge movement over the last few sessions, most notably on friday evening going
into the weekend, then early this morning because of russia headlines. i wanted to touch on that with you. in the etf world, where are you seeing the movement? james: there is no ukrainian etf, which would be the best way to follow what is going on here, but there are some russian etf's. the largest is a very complex one that holds market cap weighted russia companies, some in russia, some in other countries that deal with russia. on thing it doese do's limit exposure to oil companies. historically, it has been a good transition or play for that market. obviously, with oil skyrocketing it's obviously been a detriment, but russia is the most rsx -- it's the way to look at the market. $150 million in flows in january, $150 million in the
grand scheme of the markets does not seem like a lot, but this was a $1.3 billion fund, $150 million coming in is people trying to pick a bottom on what is going on. matt: we will be watching rsx for movement. i want to ask you about highlighting one of the cheapest bitcoin. etf's. i'm assuming it is not a spot fdf -- etf, what is it? james: it is not an etf, it is an etp. this is what is classified technically as an etc. fidelity, it is a huge name, they launched recently an etf in canada that holds spot bitcoin around 95 basis points. but this one in europe is a big deal because they are launching it at 75 basis points, which ties for the cheapest bitcoin exposure you can get. you look at the 2%.
some that started in sweden in 2015 that are at 2.5%. so to come in at 75 basis points right now is a big thing and we are waiting for regulators to allow for a spot etf because we think the u.s. markets will drive prices down even further. matt: we have seen these, claim shares has a bitcoin project as well. james, thank you for joining us, an analyst for bloomberg intelligence. much more ahead on russia and the effect it has had, the fallout we have seen on the markets. we are waiting for the president to speak this afternoon on that as well as we see the s&p rise 1.4%. this is bloomberg. ♪
latest developments in the ukraine crisis. his remarks come after the german chancellor met with president vladimir putin in moscow and western allies reacted cautiously to a russian statement that it was beginning to pull back troops from the ukrainian border. the president will be speaking at 3:30 p.m. washington time, you can watch his remarks live on bloomberg television. senate republicans are delaying a vote today on president biden's five nominees for the federal reserve. senator pat toomey says the lawmakers will boycott the vote, which will deny democrats the quorum needed to move forward. republicans are trying to block the confirmation of sarah bloom raskin as the vice chair for supervision. which mcconnell said the president should find --senator mitch mcconnell said the president should find a mainstream nominee. >> president biden's nominee can be in an extremely powerful
position. this slot comes from a major unilateral power, but of the nominee, sarah bloom raskin, has spent recent years pressuring the fed to stop being a neutral regulator and instead become an ideological left-wing activist the body. mark: republicans have also questioned her previous role as director of fintech company reserve trust, and her views mitigating the financial risks of climate change. at the u.k.'s prince andrew has reached an agreement to settle claims that he sexually assaulted a teenage girl decades ago, according to a filing from his accuser's lawyer. she had claimed that the prince was one of several men to whom jeffrey epstein lent her for abuse. the european union stopped diplomats, as a nuclear agreement with iran his insight. joseph burrell urged global powers to reach a compromise.
iran's foreign minister warned of the u.s. and other western powers to show their true intentions by removing sanctions on iran's economy. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i'm mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> welcome to bloomberg markets. matt: here are the top stories we are following from around the world. tensions remain surrounding ukraine, as mark mentioned the german chancellor met with president putin today in moscow and president biden will address the u.s. on the situation later today. and while ukraine tensions are starting to ease, so are the
protests in canada. protesters are heading home, leading to those border crossings finally being reopened. virgin galactic is ready for customers to defy gravity, announcing it is opening commercial ticket sales, a huge milestone in their mission for space tourism. all that and more is coming up. jon: and he said it, the easing tensions narrative has been what investors have been looking at today. here is a look at what has been happening in trading. the obvious sector that is worth watching is tech, investors willing to get into the beaten up names in the s&p, stocks like nvidia, a big deal with intel leading momentum from the chip group. on the other side, energy, which has had such a big move recently in part because of the geopolitical risks, pulling back as we have seen oil move lower. we'll continue to watch the
headlines on the geopolitical front, but coming back to that story of tech, i think it is a good time to have a conversation around whether or not investors truly feel comfortable with that sector. that's our segment to start off. the bank of america survey showing despite the activity we have seen today, that fund managers are the most underweight they have been since basically 2006. this chart tells the tale for you, the fact that you have seen a big portion of the fund managers who are sitting on cash or increasing cash holdings, not to say that they are not interested in staying in the stock market. we even saw buying off of the lows of the small-cap and mid-cap stocks, but everybody is wondering just because of that growth from tech stocks over the last years, is this the time to dip your toes in.
there is a skeptic will be based on the bank of america analysis. matt: i am intrigued by the bond picture there. people are forecasting in the end of the almost 40 year bull market in bonds right now and cormac molen wrote a piece this morning saying maybe it is just a mini bear market and makes interesting points as to why we could see bonds continue their rally. if that is the case, and you are a longer term fixed income investor, this could well represent a buying opportunity. jon: and worth watching, and worth watching with her stories of uncertainty, whether it is inflation or what you told us about, the geopolitical uncertainty. so, ukraine obviously in focus again today, but let's have a deeper conversation with chris who is joining us from moscow. nice to have you with us. things are moving hourly right
now, but it felt like the market was interpreting this as an easing of tensions. how are you viewing the latest? chris: that is how we look at it as well. we always thought this week with the military exercises, that we would reach a peak of speculation or of risk. so that is not a surprise, but today you have had groups, the officials, stating that there is no intention for a full russian invasion, talking about bringing troops back from the border area and generally looking to de-escalate the situation. i think it is right to interpret this as quite a hopeful sign. matt: it seems like everyday they clearly state they do not plan to invade ukraine, but it's interesting because everybody in the world thinks it is going to happen except for russia and ukraine, right?
those are the only countries saying, hold your horses. in terms of the most important, the market has been driven by those headlines, so this morning in the u.s., and we were just talking to tina fordham and she said the most important development has been the duma voting to recognize that these two rebel regions in ukraine. what do you think about that? chris: our position has been that russia primarily wants to negotiate, we never really saw any high risk of an invasion of ukraine. that is something that the kremlin would not, i think, do or risk public support for. the russian people today are quite different from those who lived in the soviet union. russian people today would not accept heavy casualties from a war they did not support, and they would not accept sanctions that have been talked about.
so we have seen as a low probability. instead we saw the kremlin either looking to push its negotiation agenda, but plan b, if that did not work, would be to recognize the separatists regions as a breakaway republic, similar to what we have near georgia. and essentially that is what the duma is saying, the threat level has moved. instead of if we do not get a negotiated settlement, then instead of invasion the plan now is recognizing the separatist region there as an independent republic, which russia would support. that is the way the narrative is moving. jon: we are awaiting president biden to speak on the latest developments in the crisis, running headlines right now about a white house spokesperson saying he will not announce new policy on ukraine today. so what should we be watching
for? chris: i think he will restate what he has been saying quite a lot, which is a clear warning to moscow that if its forces do invade ukraine, then the u.s. and europe will be working together to hit russia with very severe economic sanctions and will kill off any prospects for nord stream 2. so we can expect that very clear warning from president biden again this evening. remember the backdrop, you have a situation where president putin has said that there will be no invasion, but over the last couple days the narrative from the white house has been there will be an invasion tomorrow. so one of those situations is going to be wrong, but i would expect from president biden -- that he will position himself to say, assuming there is no invasion, that he feels this because of the severe warning because -- warning that the
alleys have delivered to moscow. that they afterwards will know the warning has worked. matt: what do you think about moving 20% from its highs, just at the end of last year. it has made a decent recovery, actually, in the last couple weeks. does it have more room to run? chris: it does, but we are really talking about the situation where we are clarifying no residual risk before you can talk about a full recovery. if we were to get something very clear in the next week or so, russian forces coming back to barracks, a clear reduction on the ukrainian border, and a commitment to toxin both with nato and the -- talks both with nato and on the minsk agreement, then you would have a good shot of the indices coming back up
towards as they were in november, probably led by those stocks that took the biggest hit. banks led the way down because part of the sanctions were to be to cut russia offer from the financial systems. so i would expect banks to lead the rally. and we have seen the ruble move as well, it was at 69 when the crisis started. and given where the oil price is today, if we did not have geopolitical tensions, the sanctions risk, my guess is the ruble would be in the mid 60's, not trading in the mid 70's. so a significant amount of recovery as investors get more comfortable as the risk is abating. after high risk, it will take several weeks for people to get comfortable no matter what happens. jon: we appreciate your time, a helpful perspective therefrom
virgin galactic launching into orbit. as you point out, longer-term and has not been a great ride. >> let's talk about the ticket sales. would you go to space? matt: obviously. >> i would not. matt: it would be so much fun. >> i cannot even do roller coasters. for those in your camp, you can actually go to space, make a deposit of $150,000 with a total cost of 450,000. that is how much it will cost for a 90 minute spaceflight. the ceo says they plan to have their first 1000 customers on board later this year in the launch of essentially their first commercial flight. an it would included some zero weight gravity time, similar to the kind you saw with richard branson last year. but since he took the flight in july, the stock has actually
dropped, dropping about 80%. it's competing with the blue origin but also dealing with regulators, they had to grounded flights recently, too. but they did get back up into the air. i want to show you how it is relative to its peers. we looked at the cost relative to a civilian trip to the international space station and it is a total bargain, $450,000 with virgin galactic versus a trip to the iss through space-x, $55 million, and that is on the lower end. matt: how far do you get with virgin galactic? you go up into -- kriti: the outer atmosphere. matt: what do you get for $450,000? kriti: same thing, but you get that zero gravity time, come on. matt: i think that cory johnson went up and did this for free as
a reporter at one point. jon: you have to get the 150k, that is the bottom line. maybe we could each cough up 50k and get that initial payment down for you. it is interesting, you are showing us the comparables and reminding us of jeff bezos's space ambitions and elon musk with space-x. when there is encouraging news for companies like virgin galactic, it reminds investors that this is one of the main ways they have been able to play the space race. kriti: yeah, and interesting that the stock, if you compare it to what has been driving the stock it has definitely been analyst recommendations, folks moving the price target up and down. it's nearing it.
and analysts are not as convinced of virgin galactic's viability of it as basic exposure, so it is interesting to see that as there is a consensus thought for the average investor, analysts are trading different opinions. jon: thank you, a helpful breakdown of the news on virgin galactic. when we come back, mr. justin trudeau bringing down the hammer and invoking his emergency powers in canada and protesters are getting the message. we'll have the latest from ottawa, next. this is bloomberg. ♪
two border crossings. it let's bring in a reporter who has been covering the situation in ottawa where the police chief has resigned today after his approach to the protest drew criticism. what can you tell us? brian: the police chief had failed from the beginning to stop the convoy from digging in in the capital city, then from being able to keep it contained or crackdown on it. he has taken the strategy of waiting the protesters out rather than taking an aggressive move or making -- of making arrests and people lost patience with it. he has resigned today and i think we will see a more aggressive police response. i think that things are going to change. matt: things certainly will change if the truckers pull out. are they on their way? are they rolling off of the bridges and opening up supply chains? brian: it depends, the bridges
that everybody was concerned about, the ambassador bridge between detroit and windsor was reopened on sunday and has stayed clear. the one in braided between alberta and montana, i believe it is flowing or may reopened today, but there are other border crossings under threat or block and no sign of the capital city truckers leaving anytime soon. jon: you and i were talking earlier today, as part of the emergency powers moved by the prime minister you talked about the moves to essentially get in the way of funding sources, so there is a banking connection to the story. explained that to the audience. -- explain that to the audience. brian: the police, at least in ottawa, are concerned that they cannot get the truckers out by force, so the strategy that the federal government is now leading is to go after them
money commit to freeze accounts of anybody involved, directly involved with the truckers or supporting them somehow. you could have your personal bank account frozen if your company has trucks involved, your corporate account could be frozen and your insurance could be suspended, so they are putting the financial screws to the truckers and anybody who is involved in the blockade. the hope is by doing that you do not have to have officers come in in a situation that could get messy. matt: cash is king, just another reminder. but what is the covid situation like? this is what it comes down to, they are angry or initially were angry about having to get vaccines, but is it even necessary anymore? what is the covid situation in canada? brian: numbers are dropping, most provinces have a plan for
removing a lot of the restrictions. ontario, were ottawa is, today said many researches will be gone in march, so i think that was going to happen anyway. protesters could have sped up the process, but the federal government, i think, if anything is going to be very reticent to roll things back quickly because they do not want to be seen as capitulating the protesters, they are slowly moving things back. they may remove testing requirements. but things were on track to start being rolled back regardless, so the protests may have sped that up. jon: lots of continued tracking of this with brian. as we think about the supply chain issue you were alluding to, you got to a situation where the head is central banker in the country had to weigh in because people were trying to figure out the math on the
economic impact, the inflationary impact, which is what we are watching in the u.s. daily as well. matt: it is interesting, we have seen more and more stories of carmakers, because detroit is so close, obviously, and they are so deeply affected having to shut down production for the second week in a row. if you are in the u.s., and you want to order a dog challenger -- a dodge challenger job rate -- jail break, you think of it as american muscle but clearly it is canadian and you will be waiting on a. jon: connecting the dots, matt miller. he always does. this is bloomberg. ♪
this is closely aligned with the indian government's plan to reach net zero emissions, but india's second richest man has committed $20 million over the next decade, but india's dependence on fossil fuels has some advocates questioning the realism and sincerity of those ambitions. mark: russian president vladimir putin says he hopes for a
diplomatic solution to tensions as he announced a partial pullback of thousands of troops. but vladimir putin warned moscow will not wait forever for the west to address its demand that ukraine never join nato. he spoke at a press conference today after three hours of talks with olaf scholz. meanwhile, nato's secretary-general said he has not yet seen evidence of the troop pullback. >> so far, we have not seen any de-escalation on the ground, not seen any signs of reduced russian military presence on the borders with ukraine. russia has amassed a fighting force in and around crane unprecedented since c
IN COLLECTIONSBloomberg TV Television Archive Television Archive News Search Service
Uploaded by TV Archive on