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tv   Bloomberg Markets  Bloomberg  February 22, 2022 1:00pm-2:00pm EST

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president putin is planning an invasion of ukraine. >> every indication is that russia continues to plan for a full-scale attack on ukraine. we see the ongoing military buildup. they promise to step back but they are stepping up. mark: the united states is expected to announce new sanctions after the european union and the u.k. sent out initial packages targeting moscow. the moves follow weeks of warnings from the u.s. and its partners that president putin could be planning to invade ukraine, something his government has repeatedly denied. president biden will address the situation in ukraine shortly. the u.s. supreme court agreed to rejoin the debate over gay and speech rights, excepting an appeal from a colorado website designer who says she won't for
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same-sex weddings. she maintains colorado as violent in her first amendment protections. a federal appeals court ruled against her. in coronavirus infections in the united states have slowed to the lowest levels since the arrival of the highly contagious omicron variant. that is according to data compiled by johns hopkins university and bloomberg. hong kong will test its entire population of 7.4 million people three times and maintained strict social distancing rules in a bid to slow now break that is now the worst on record for china. health authorities today announced over 6000 confirmed cases. in the meantime, the omicron variant has gained a foothold in wuhan come the central chinese city were covid-19 first emerged in 2019. so far, at least 14 people have
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tested positive, making -- marking the first surgeons in the city in more than six month. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and at quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i am mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. >> good afternoon from new york. i am matt miller. welcome to bloomberg markets. here the top stories we are following from around the world. in just a few moments until president biden steps up to the podium. we will bring you his comments on the crisis in ukraine as the u.s. is expected to announce new sanctions and we will follow all of the market fallout as well. plus we will look at how russia sanctions could further impact
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the global supply chain crisis. we will talk chips with caroline hyde. as russia tensions escalate, we will look at how investors can hedge risk with the cofounder of bondbloxx, focused solely on fixed income post up a quick check of the markets right now. we have seen a slow and steady decline in the equities indexes throughout the afternoon. the s&p 500 now down 1.2%. you do see the nasdaq fallen a little bit more. it is not really pulling down stocks the weight techs have been -- the way techs have been. you see the dollar index is trading down fractionally. you also see a back-and-forth in
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terms of the 10 year yield. we have been up over the unchanged level and down below it, right now at 191.99. investors are not flooding into treasuries, either for the perceived safety of government debt. it is an interesting market but it is a risk off market. bitcoin is out but it is still down from levels we have seen it in the past, trading for around 37,000 dollars. take a look at some of the assets tied to russia. huge moves in brent crude. only $97. we were within a fewcents of $100 earlier this morning. the ruble right now, you can buy 79 and change for a dollar. so coming down now fractionally, came down substantially in the past few sessions. this bouncing back after huge drop in yesterday's session. right now that is the russian benchmark. nickel -- nickel continues
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to gain. there's been a lot of movement in we are saying that continue. president biden set to deliver remarks any moment now on ukraine and on further sanctions for russia. here's what other world leaders have been saying about the crisis. >> what russia has done is against international commitment and further escalates the crisis and receives our strong -- >> no specification of the pipeline can take place right now, and without the certification. >>. >>, nord stream 2 cannot go into operation today the u.k. is sectioning the following five russian banks. we are sanctioning three very high networth individuals. this is the first tranche, the
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first barrage of what we are prepared to do. >> europe is not afraid of russia's actions. we choose our partners and our partners choose us. >> i do think this is an invasion. if it is, i think the sooner the sanctions are off the ground, the better. matt: joining us down from brussels is otilia dhand. she has a background in political risk and geopolitics, advises clients on those matters as well. let me first ask you how we should frame the moves that russia is made now, identifying these two states as independent, or territories as independent, in ukraine. some leaders have said this is essentially annexing the territories. vladimir putin says that is not what he is doing. otilia: thank you.
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what they effectively have done is recognize independence of the two separatists republics, which is different from what originally happened with crimea. there are number of other separatist regions that russia recognizes as independent, including -- without actually annexing the territory. important to recognize russia recognized the claim of luhansk and donetsk republics and that is -- could be a main point of contention in the coming days. matt: we just showed a map and it is important to point out we show luhansk and donetsk and
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there is a shaded. that shows where the russian independence is, how far they have come now. can we move that shading to cover the entire territory? are you going to see rusch s russian military bases in the area that are currently under ukrainian control or were yesterday? >> there are several options that russia -- and can be just placing the troops in the luhansk and donetsk -- potential escalation along the existing line to exceed to the russian side. could be the movement of troops across without holding the territory. finally, it could be the movement of troops into these territories -- several options.
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from previous experience, russia has the gradual escalation to the point russia feels it can succeed in securing the best political angle. matt: is there any signal that ukrainian forces are going to push back against russian independences here? they've been tried before and i will to build buildup of troops, but any sign a bigger defensive moves from ukraine? >> well, what we have seen from ukraine so far has been relatively measured response. the expectation would be they would be defending -- since 2014. they could follow the example of georgia, which was not very lucky and that was to engage in the act of fighting across the line with the russian military
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as happened in 2008. but that was not very successful tactic. probably on the russia to claim that ukrainian military is escalating violence in eastern ukraine. matt: we're just about to hear from the u.s. president in terms of further sanctions that the united states can place on russia, although, i mean, they are fairly toothless unless western europe plays along in terms of dotting the means of financing for moscow and stopping buying gas? how likely or unlikely is that? >> well, you don't really need gas. right now we see guys going down quite rapidly in europe. -- we see gas going down quite rapidly in europe.
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what we have seen from the u.s. and european side and they focus mainly on individual sanctions. of the financial sector in particular. and exports to russia technological services. -- products and services. it is the sanctioning of any transaction investment in the separatist territory. this seems to be the main line, the big question over the past few weeks has been nord stream 2. we've seen the german government removing the funding that is need for suffocation of the pipeline. matt: if you look at the map again, otilia, there is not a clear line from russia down to the crimean peninsula. we were told for so long one of vladimir putin's aims, he wants
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to get a land bridge down to his peninsula there. is that still likely he will push for that? otilia: keep the map there because it is quite obvious from the picture it is a long way from luhansk to -- donetsk to crimea. it is not necessarily the base plan. you can see when you look at the map, there is a long road that leads from -- down to crimea but that is several hundred kilometers on open stretch of road. what you need in that case is a broad sweep that would take you all the way down to crimea. that a substantial military operation that would require significant forces and 150,000 troops may just not be enough. matt: otilia, thank you for your
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intelligence on these issues. great to get your insight of otilia dhand talking about the latest in russia, in ukraine. coming up, with many sectors dependent on semi conductors and supply chain challenges persisting, we will go like to the micron headquarters to discuss the impact on the chipmaker. this is bloomberg. ♪
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matt: russia sanctions could further affect the global supply chain crisis, especially for automakers who are one of the key consumers of semi conductors also joining us now from the micron headquarters in boise, idaho, caroline hyde. looking into the chip shortage. we have been asking for months now why did not chipmaker see this coming? why did they not invest more? why can't they give us the tips we need? caroline: enough a lot of it was the perfect storm, wasn't it? when you have manufacturing in asia and they have zero tolerance on covid, you're going up supply chain disruption. manufacturing has to be put on ice. you'll have let micron here that does have a globally diversified supply chain. output in japan and malaysia and china as well and taiwan.
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you're still going to have kinks that occur and have to also meet that demand that just -- the fact the a desire today's it -- data centers, bones, web cameras which is a perfect stormof t supply-side issues. we are seeing this call on news administration to give us more money, make it more attractive to build in the united states. here they are expanding their r&d facility. in boise, idaho, they want to begin increasing the talent, increasing the pipeline of innovation but also in manufacturing. they need a chunk of change for that. they still have to sign that off to make it much more alluring to build in the u.s. 45% difference, cost difference
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between asia and the u.s. at the moment. matt: what kind of on shoring are we going to see for chips, caroline? are we going to see more fabs in the u.s.? are we going to see more workers at u.s. chip fabs? are we going to see a lot more of it made in the usa? caroline: if they get that money, matt. the statistics are back in the 1990's, about 37% of all chips are manufactured in the united states. that dwindles to about 12%. the likes of micron, the biggest u.s. maker of memory chips, they want to see that escalade back up and ensure the resiliency to supply chain is furthered by being able to build perhaps here in the united states are they do need better incentives. a lot more money has been spent by the chinese government to make sure there the powerhouse when it comes to manufacturing but you are seeing steps being taken. intel spending that $10 million building in ohio. we are seeing more fabrication
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being made in idaho. they got the virginia manufacturing also in micron. we will see is scale up. they at the same time going to see more problems when it comes to supply chain issues. remember, enough a lot of the noble gases that are made to make these tiny wafers, you need the likes of neon gas, and a lot of that comes from ukraine-russia. matt: caroline hyde drawing the connection pressed between russia, ukraine, and the chip world. the bigger picture is that we just are not getting what we need and that is fouling the production across a number of industries. it is incredibly important to bid. to do for special coverage about supply chain pain all day on bloomberg. we will be speaking to the micron ceo a little bit later on. still ahead, investing in the
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fixed income space through etf's. more on that conversation still ahead with joanna gallegos, bondbloxx. this is bloomberg. ♪
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matt: this is "bloomberg markets." some fixed income investors looking to etf's in the hunt for new opportunities in the space. joining us to discuss is joanna gallegos, bondbloxx co-founder. her from just launched 70 bts that focus on u.s. high-yield bonds. thank you for your time. i have to ask first, in this kind of volatility, it must be difficult to launch these etf's or am i wrong? does it create opportunity for you? >> thank you for having me.
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this is the perfect time to launch targeted fixed income. we are able to provide tools to investors to better manage their risk and provide better exposure to individual sectors. i think in the volatility we have seen your to date, had portfolio managers or alligators had these choices before and constructed the portfolios buried differently or going for they are able to do that and continue to manage the risk more precisely. there's no better time than now. matt: what are your offerings looking like? we have said seven different etf's. are they focused on high-yield? are they specifically aimed at investors looking for returns? broken up regionally by industry group? what are we looking at? >> bondbloxx launched six months ago and this is our first launch, seven high-yield sector funds. we started in high-yield because we heard overwhelming feedback from institutional investors they did not have the tools that
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would enable them to execute targeted views. it is really strange they have not had these because for over 20 years, the equity etf's has been available in lots of different sectors and different exposures for people to be very precise in the way they allocate most of so this particular -- so this is seven sectors in high-yield. we wanted to ensure people had more choice than just the blunt type of tools and the broad-based tools out there today. matt: you have experience from
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blackrock, jp morgan, northern trust, state street. why the focus on high-yield? is that just a starting place? are you looking to expand beyond that? >> backed by very special team came together because we saw an immense gap and capability in etf offering. this is not their only entry into this space. we will continue to launch products fixed income to provide them access so they can more precisely express their views. you will see us move into other asset classes. we will look at other geographies and even different risk metrics as we file for three credit ratings just in january. matt: how difficult is this next year going to be as we look at forecast for seven rate hikes? >> i think this environment, removing -- moving into potential raising rates, rising rates for volatility, we have seen etf's incredible tool of excess liquidity for investors and an incredible tool to allow somebody to implement their investment views. we are really optimistic that our audit offering is going to be a big unmet demand for institutional investors.
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we are optimistic that these tools are needed and needed now. matt: joanna gallegos from bondbloxx talking about their seven new high-yield fixed income etf's. let's take a quick look at markets because we have seen the s&p as well as the nasdaq comes steadily down to day. during the first hour of trading this morning, we were bouncing back and forth between gains and losses but we are now looking at an s&p 500 solidly down 1.2%. the dow is now off almost 500 points. we await the president talking about or sanctions on russia. this is bloomberg. ♪
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mark: i am mark crumpton first word news. three white men convicted of killing ahmaud arbery are found
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guilty of federal hate crimes. the jury found the men deprived the 25-year-old man of his right to use a public street when they gunned him down while jogging in the georgia neighborhood. travis mcmichael, his father gregory mcmichael, and their neighbor william bryan face up to life in prison. on top of their life sentences only mr. brian was eligible for parole. the u.s. supreme court rejected an appeal by energy transfer lp's dakota access pipeline. the justices refused to question a federal appeals court ruling that said the army corps of engineers should have appeared at an environmental impact statement before granting the pipeline the right to cross under the lake in north dakota. the action leaves uncertainty surrounding the 1200 mile pipeline which carries 200 million barrels of crude a year from north dakota to illinois. pentagon officials are
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considering authorizing national guard personnel to provide assistance at key traffic arteries in washington. this ahead of potential trucker protests timed to coincide with president biden's state of the union next week. the requests come amid growing concerns washington could be the site of disruptions similar to those that have tied up the canadian capitol of ottawa over covid-19 requirements and other pandemic related public health measures. global news 24 hours a day on air and on quicktake by bloomberg. powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i am mark crumpton, this is bloomberg. ♪ greg: i am greg burnell. matt: and i am matt miller.
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here are the top stories from around the world. the eu and u.k. put sanctions on russia. president biden will address the nation to provide an update on the situation. as tensions between russia and ukraine rise many commodities jump, spurring fears of supply disruption digging deep into how aluminum is being impacted and swedish fintech company klarna expands to candida. we speak to the cofounder and ceo on the new ability to split purchases into four payments per that and more coming up. greg: let's check in on the market action. major averages a lot of caution among investors considering russia. ukraine, and the developments over the weekend, we enter the shortened trading week on both sides of the border with caution. in toronto down three quarters of a percent.
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s&p 500 a little more than that, a full percent. the nasdaq down 1.5%. the bond market is behaving itself. it is a wait and see feel, matt. it has been a bit of a cautious trade. trying to figure out what comes next. the energy market, the commodity market can move off this as well. for what it's worth we want to take a look at assets tied closer to the situation with russia and the ukraine. brent oil at $96.86. that is a psychological mark when people think about soaring energy costs. you like the price until it tamps down consumer behaviors. you see moves in terms of the reaction. the russian index up 1.5% and nickel getting a boost in terms of a closer look at the action
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we might see directly tied to what is happening. what is happening is the big question. we are awaiting president biden in half an hour. let's bring in samuel greene for more insight at kings college of london. he is the author of "putin versus the people." thank you for joining us. let's start about the next steps. there were developments over the weekend that were unsettling. where does it go from here? samuel: we don't know. putin is maintaining ambiguity. he set out the rhetorical political basis for taking over ukraine. that is not the war he has declared the moment. he seems to be taking troops up to the cease-fire line in eastern ukraine where it has been more or less since 2015. he also indicated if things do not go the way he wants them to, he might move beyond that and we
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find ourselves in a shooting war. western governments are struggling with this question of, how do they calibrate the response such that it deters them from going further while also a leaving significant power grabs if he does decide to pursue? matt: is there anything they can do? is it putin's for the taking essentially? samuel: militarily ukraine is the ones fighting this out. there will not be western boots on the ground. there are western arms in the ukrainian arsenal but beyond that it is a war everybody recognizes -- if putin wants to win, he is going to win. the question is, at what cost of the russian military and what cost in terms of the russian economy? that is what i think people are trying to ramp up. the problem for everybody, including me who earn their money analyzing this, we really
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don't know what putin is after. he said he was after trying to keep ukraine out of nato. what he did the last few days only brings ukraine closer to nato and increase support. some say he wants to drive a wedge between ukraine and the european union. this has been counterproductive from that perspective. if you think what he wants to do is take over the country, well, why do it so peacefully? if he wants to rebuild the soviet union -- matt: because it is expensive. why wouldn't he do it piecemeal? it is expensive to do it all at once in terms of lives and his popularity at home. this way the eu is not going to stop buying his gas. he can kind of sneak in and take it piece by piece and rebuild the soviet union. samuel: may be and that is a possibility leaders have to take seriously. i think to a certain extent that is why we have seen the eu sanctions response more robust
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than i would've expected. it is not just targeting people directly linked or directly linked to the kremlin. it is sanctions on sovereign debt and sanctions on nord stream 2. that i think will be slightly surprising to the kremlin and they will have to think about what might come next. greg: in terms of what russia might do next to that is hard enough to figure out. the other side of this when we talk about a flashpoint for geopolitical tensions is what nato will have to say, what the united states will have to say. more importantly, what they might do about it. does that make this issue a bigger issue for all of us? samuel: i think they have been pretty clear. there is not going to be nato troops on the ground in ukraine. i think if we do get into a shooting war, there will be a lot of pressure probably do have a more robust nato presence on the eastern flank. we might expect troops in poland and lithuania, especially since we are seeing alongside the action in ukraine russia digging
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into debasing positions in belarus. really bringing the russian border right up to the poland and lithuania border in a way it was not before. nato might feel it has to respond in some way as well. but i do think both washington and moscow are focused on making sure russian troops and nato troops do not end up in that situation where they could shoot at each other. matt: what is vladimir putin's next move? i was talking with an analyst earlier asking her if it is possible if he tries to go for the land between the peninsula. it was theorized weeks ago that that was what he was after, a land route to that very important peninsula. is that off? samuel: that theory is out there. if you look at a speech the other day, you could read it to justify that. but you could also read the
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speech to justify the occupation and annexation of ukraine as such. i think a lot of this is really meant to force western and ukrainian leaders to prepare for multiple scenarios which means they are not necessarily as prepared for what putin decides he is going to do. there is a lot of infrastructure across the cease-fire line. it will be the question as to whether ukraine uses that to put pressure on the separatist region's and russia itself. that might provoke russia into moving across the lines and they may do that in order to seize control of the infrastructure. putin said they recognized the boundaries to be the territory they have claimed which is twice as much as with a control. he is giving us a lot of things
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to worry about and there is no good way of knowing what he is going to do next. greg: we have about a minute left. i feel silly asking, at this point in the developments we have seen is there still a path for diplomacy? samuel: there is a path for diplomacy to prevent all out confrontation with the west. even at the lowest of nato-russia relations we talk about strategic security, and transparency, to make sure we don't end up in a conflict where everybody loses. i don't think there is any room for real diplomacy in the foreseeable future about the situation in ukraine. matt: i think it is a great question and great to get the frank intelligence you offer. thank you for joining us. samuel greene, director of the russia institute of king's college in london. coming up, we talked to sebastian siemiatkowski, cofounder of klarna, the
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european by now, pay later company moving into canada today and said to be considering a new funding round. lots to talk about around bnpl. this is bloomberg. ♪
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matt: this is "bloomberg markets ." i am matt miller with greg burnell. swedish fintech company klarna is expanding into canada after launching in the u.s. in u.k. last year. bloomberg is reporting the company is weighing a new funding round that would cement its status as europe's most valuable startup. recently i talked about the outlook for the by now, pay later sector with the ceo of competitor affirm.
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>> the vast majority of players look at their book and say, what will happen to me? things are worsening. that is not how we run the company. we decide what is acceptable delinquency will be for us to make sure we continue growing at the pace we want. if we feel it will worsen, with tighten and address it and change our settings every day. all of that makes us feel comfortable about the performance of our book, not about the competition. matt: that was max talking about his business talking about the competition. let's talk to the competition. sebastian siemiatkowski, founder and ceo of klarna. i feel like i grew up with this company because i have been living in europe the past five years and you are everywhere. certainly there. what differentiates your business from competitors like affirm? sebastian: i had breakfast with
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max a few months before he started affirm. i have fond memories of sharing some of my vision with him. [laughter] from my perspective the big opportunity here is look at canada. in the last year $60 billion was earned from credit card interest and 20% and average interest rate. canada had the highest in the world. there is a massive opportunity here for construction and as an etf once said, margin is our opportunity. if we can come and bring better financials that are more affordable to consumers and merchants, we are all in. matt: it seems like max is not the only one you may have had breakfast with, because the big banks are looking to follow your playbook as well. how do you fend off players like that that are so well-established? sebastian: look, the company has been in existence 17 years.
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i was 23 years back then. we have been trying to fend off banks for that time. what we are focused on is what separates us for the user experience. people think about by now, pay later that is what they associate with us. but on every transaction we have a digital receipt. when you pay with a credit card statement where you barely understand you purchased, you see the items you purchased. we help you track packages and purchases and logistics. we help you make returns. we basically help you manage your commercial life. there is tons of other features like that that we incorporated into the experience. there is much that we lead with and people recognize us for. the 100 million users we have globally are in for a multitude of reasons. greg: i am curious about the foray into canada being based in canada. we could study after study about
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how indebted the consumer is. we expect the bank of canada to have rate hike lift off next week. is there a risk in this environment when you are offering people no interest, four installments, that that could turn bad on you? sebastian: no but that is it. we have not always been clear on this. we are becoming more clear. you should pay with money you have. first and foremost, pain now is 50% of our volume globally -- paying now is 50% of our volume globally. but there are occasionally moments where credit makes sense, maybe shopping online and you want to test the product before you pay for it. you don't want your money processed on the return and wait three weeks if you are using debit. but there are situations like shopping online where it makes sense. the big question is, what type of credit? that has been credit cards with 20% apr with dirty tricks trying to get you into the revolving
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and spend over the credit limit. this is a short-term installment product, interest-free, it costs nothing for the consumer. as you evaluate different credit we believe this is a better form of credit. credit will be necessary and has its place to place society the question is which one? matt: i imagine you had real tailwinds during the pandemic because kids and locked down doing more online shopping than they typically would. does that mean you are prepared for a little bit of a slow down as we all get back outside and on our bikes? sebastian: yeah. our average age is 35. and if you look at the markets, we have the highest maturity, 80% of the population users. i think we would like -- yes, obviously we have seen a slowing in online purchase but if you look at the u.s. there are
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80,000 physical stores. a little bit of the benefit we have is that the u.s. and new markets are growing so fast. we are happy to add canada. it is not only about offering our services. we are proud and happy to establish the first product and engineering house in the north american area in toronto. shopify is on fire so we are super excited about putting in an office and investing in canada beyond offering services to consumers. greg: before he let you go to provide the service you need to source funds as well. many has been cheap for a while now because of the pandemic. i said earlier we are getting clear signals from central banks about cheap money coming to an end. does that change the business for you? sebastian: we are actually fully regulated bank.
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not everybody knows that. as part of our yearly capital calculations and risk calculations we are looking at how sensitive are we to interest rate changes? because we turnaround our balance sheet 12 times a year, which is more frequent than your average bank. 75% of our balance sheet has a duration shorter than three months. the difference as a consequence our exposures to costs by competitors of a typical bank. we also have the ability to change the financing cost to be fairly low. we have depositors sharing savings with us and allowing us to keep the value at a low level. we don't necessarily foresee this could be a major impact on us. massive rates of interest rates will have to be adjusted but in general it is not a big issue. greg: our thanks to sebastian siemiatkowski, the ceo of klarna. this is bloomberg. ♪
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romaine: this is bloomberg markets. i am greg burnell with matt miller. time for the stock of the hour. russia's margin to eastern ukraine triggering mineral cutbacks with the west. alcoa macy difficulty in supply. kriti gupta joins us. kriti: this is so important when talking about how you hedge the geopolitical risk? russia is the second largest aluminum producer but when you see the supply risks come to fruition, aluminum prices spiking, it takes out call with it. alcoa has been benefiting from aluminum prices rising 123%. you will see that read through go into alcoa when it comes to gross margin which is up on the
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year-over-year basis 25%. this is really important when it comes to russia because, at the end of the day, if you look at their exports as a percent of global supply, they have quite a big steak in these major metal markets. aluminum 4% but look at the other ones. palladium 46% as a percentage of global supply. that is important when we are talking about what stocks are actually affected from this news. caroline: brushed aluminum wheels. looks good. [laughter] that is interesting but i want to get back to the general markets for a second. we are at session lows right now. it has been throughout the day slowly moving lower and lower and lower and lower. the dow as well off 500 points and change. the interesting thing i think is that you haven't seen -- sorry, the dow was off 631.
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you haven't seen people piling into the yen, treasuries, to the dollar. the dollar index still at $1 1.74. kriti: we went from the risk off trade into gold to a completely risk off capitulation. i think that is what you're seeing right now. it is all cash tromping even those havens because the uncertainty is that big. caroline: cash is no longer trash. thank you very much for that. kriti gupta with across asset look for us. for greg burnell, i am matt miller. this is bloomberg. ♪
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announcer: the most crucial moments in the trading day. this is "bloomberg markets: the close."
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with caroline hyde, romaine bostick and taylor riggs. ♪ romaine: 2:00 p.m. in london, 7:00 p.m. in new york -- -- we focus heavily today on the shortages of computer chips, the hardware those go into and how the russian-ukraine row could hinder other commodities they need in order to be made. i am romaine bostick. taylor: i am taylor riggs. romaine: and i believe i see caroline out in the pastors of boise, idaho. caroline: the micron r&d headquarters. i am here in boise, idaho. we are keeping the fires burning. the key


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