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tv   Bloomberg Surveillance  Bloomberg  March 4, 2022 7:00am-8:00am EST

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>> this is in many ways the second cold war. >> we are coming out of a pandemic and going into another shock. >> the fed is in a very tough place here. >> go too fast, they risk stagflation. go to slow, 7.5 percent and rising inflation can become entrenched. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: it is payrolls friday. it does not feel like it. from new york city, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance, " live on tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. big things can happen in the fog of war. tom: we had the panic last night. i think panic is the right word. we don't usually like to do that, but can we agree 7:30 last night, panic? jonathan: i think a lot of people were scared.
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this morning we have worked through the headlines, less reason to be. if people are just engaging with the content this morning, they read as follows. what happened overnight, there was some fighting between ukrainian and russian forces on the site of a nuclear plant. a fire broke out. that fire, though, broke out at a training complex at the plant. the fire has been contained. the iaea informed us no change in radiation levels. it has not affected essential equipment either. we also understand russian forces ar now in control of the site. tom: they are in control of the site, moving north from crimea. what we have seen is a real adjustment, and part of it is a friday adjustment. this is not about the jobs report. it is about trying to figure out flows and balance sheets into the weekend. just one statistic coming to see the euro print, a weaker euro is
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extraordinary, about the tensions that are. there now -- that are there now. jonathan: the banks in europe down really hard. socgen, deutsche bank, the usual names down by 25% on the week so far. lisa: it has been tremendous. we did avoid a worst-case scenario according to the reports so far. however, the attack on the nuclear facility, while it does seem to be stabilized, is an escalation that has raised the specter of additional sanctions on oil or other harder moves, which i think is what is pervading the market this morning and some of feel. jonathan: you sit down, you go through the headlines, it is company after company. maersk suspending new air bookings for russia and ukraine, suspending europe intercontinental rail bookings, suspending new bookings for belarus.
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those are the latest headlines. we have seen company after company, some of this is moral application and some of this -- moral obligation and some of it is business operations. tom: mr. putin saying an hour ago and some comment that he has no evil intent to his neighbors. the reality is we are in a war. what i would note is the span we are seeing. yesterday we saw ikea make some comments, and this morning maersk, and also luxury provider her ms. -- provider hermes shutting down their stores. jonathan: you would agree there is a difference between the moral obligation in stepping away from russia and just business operations. we saw with the car companies, the auto manufacturers, they can't get the parts out of ukraine. that is very different to say and we can me the cars, the operation is ok, we just won't sell you the cars anymore.
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tom: that is going to fold into the ecb and what they do here, but what is so unusual about this friday is the balance sheet adjustments that are being guesstimated off the russian market open. jonathan: and how to price the european banks as well. futures down 0.8% on the s&p, on the nasdaq by 0.75%. it is $109 40 two cents -- it is 109.42 on euro-dollar. lisa: probably the least important payrolls friday we've had in a long time. the expectation is for deceleration in job creation, 420 3000, although we've got a number of different estimates on that front. how much does it offset the increase we are seeing a
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commodities? very much front and center after a series of meetings that antony blinken is having with a number of native leaders, he will talk to my mers of the press. how much do we hear about additional sanctions after talking about sanctioning the oligarchs? that has really been the target yesterday, additional oligarchs target, saying their support has facilitated putin's war of choice against ukraine. how much further can they go? our eyes are on overnight and entered tomorrow, the national people's congress talking about the economic goals, expecting a growth target between 5% and 5.5%, the first time since 1991 that that goal is below 6%. do we hear something about the from the situation -- something from them about the situation in russia and ukraine? jonathan: team coverage on this situation starts right now with
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bloomberg's maria tadeo in brussels, emily wilkins and washington, d.c. what we saw take place last night was stunning, a firefight around the site of europe's largest nuclear power plant. what is the reaction from the europeans this morning? maria: we have to be very careful around the reporting of this. what we do know is that the international has said this was shelled by russian weapons, but the reactors have not been affected. there is no radiation or leakage coming out of this, but there were two people injured. the big questions for nato minutes used -- for nato members and foreign ministers is who controls the site and what they intend on doing. what i get from the people i have been speaking with the entire morning is that they do worry that vladimir putin is saying i have no intention of hurting ukrainians, but on the ground it is a very different picture, and everything we have seen so far from the language, but also the military actions
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from russia, are escalating. they worry that russia is trying to force a conversation about nuclear. vladimir putin talked about nuclear deterrence. one official told me this is now playing with fire, and this is serious on this point. main nature today -- nato today also concerned about any escalation. tom: what is the trajectory of the war this weekend? there's a nuclear plant. there is another one to the west-northwest, and beyond that there is another one way northwest, and another one passed that. what is the trajectory of the war of the landgrab? maria: it is get to the capital and take control of the entire country. we have seen this for pretty much every point around ukraine. crane is completely trapped from
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pretty much every angle. we see that the russians have not been able to take over the big cities, but that is the next plane. they say the operation is going according to plan, repeating, "russians and ukrainians are the same people and we continue on a mission." remember, they have to talk about a special -- remember, they talk about a special operation differ ukraine from nazis. the word nazi is very politically charged in russia. it goes back to the second world war. when you use this word, it really dehumanizes the other person. it just means you are a terrible person, and of course, the government of russia, and vladimir putin's eyes, is on a mission to get rid of this. of course, we know the reality on the ground is very different on the ground, and ukrainians did vote for zelenskyy
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to be president, who is now an icon in the country. lisa: how much do we know on reporting that biden is encouraging domestic producers to pump more so they can provide a buffer if we should go further in terms of dissension front? emily:emily: there is absolutely pressure on president biden to go further. you heard speaker pelosi yesterday, she did not mince words. she said i am all for it. ban it. then we saw that bipartisan effort to have a ban. beside biden's own party, he's under pressure from oil executives who say you need to move up production of shale, that the u.s. does need to work on becoming or energy independent right now. they know it is not going to happen overnight, but there needs to be a plan in place. at this point we have not seen the white house budged too much on this issue. they have said they are worried that any sort of band will wind
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up hurting the economy and hurt americans at the pump. gas prices are a major consideration or president biden. it is something that is very much on his mind and the mind of all democrats as they try to make sure they are holding onto congress and t upcoming midterms. at the same point, we have seen this war continue on. we have seen the pressure continue. clearly there's a lot of bipartisan support for ukraine. we are going to be seeing another funding request come through, $10 billion for humanitarian and military aid to ukraine. we are expecting that to be considered next week as congress prepares to fund the government to give the white house that amount of money as well. there's a lot of support for this, and i think the pressure is just going to continue on biden to do something about banning the u.s. purchase of russian oil. jonathan: that pressure is building. emily wilkins in washington, maria tadeo in brussels. for most people, last night was a step up in risk. how do nato members respond?
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that is where things start to get difficult. if you believe that things are going to get worse before they get better, what is the next move from european allies? tom: the next move for me, and we are not nato members, but was in the politics of this, i have listened to experienced military authorities, as we have with general hodges and general commit. both of them are grim, which means you have to apply materiel to the threat. that is what i would look for next, nato supplying ukraine in a huge way. jonathan: that is a strategic military decision. what is the -- what does the step up in sanctions look like? tom: are we back to square one? jonathan: we are in a big way. futures down about 1% on the s&p . yields in seven basis points, lower to 1.7683%. crewed up more than 2%. this is bloomberg.
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♪ ritika: keeping you up to date with news from around the world, with the first word, i'm ritika gupta. u.s. secretary of state antony blinken is praising the speed, unity, and determination the nato alliance showed as it came together after russia's invasion of ukraine. lincoln spoke to reporter the head of a meeting of nato's foreign affairs ministers in brussels today. >> hours is a defensive alliance. we seek no conflict. but if conflict comes to us, we are ready for it, and we will defend every inch of nato territory. ritika: blinken will travel in the next few days to countries that border russia or ukraine, including poland, this when you, latvia -- poland, lithuania, latvia, and estonia. city halls have been bathed in the blue and gold of the ukrainian flag.
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grocery stores and liquor stores from alabama to idaho have pulled russian products. jp morgan is warning that russia's economy could be headed for a major collapse. the bank's analyst says the increasing collapse of the exports could see a fallout comparable to 1998. jp morgan is pretty thing a peak to trough crash in russian to mystic product -- russian domestic product of about 11%. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪
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♪ jonathan: just getting pictures
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of what appears to be secretary blinken alongside nato members in a family photo in brussels, belgium. that is jen's stilton berg -- jen's stoltenberg -- jens stilton berg -- jens stoltenberg alongside secretary blinken. tom: can you imagine the scenarios and outcomes they have been briefed on by their military authorities? jonathan: the gentleman right in the center, the nato secretary-general, his words this morning, it just demonstrates the recklessness of this war and the importance of ending it. how they choose to respond to this today, i've got no idea, but certainly in the fog of war, bad things can happen. that is what people were concerned about overnight as that firefighting was taking place on the side of europe's
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largest nuclear power plant. tom: we will continue with coverage on this, and of course we got reporters in poland and brussels and other parts of this european continent, and the g7 meetings this morning. it is jobs day. we will give you the coverage of it. there will be important information. but far more than that is the thermometers we have worldwide inequities, bonds, currencies, commodities. priya misra at td securities is expert at looking at full faith in credit and sovereign dynamics. what does your world say this morning about where our balance sheets and where our financial system is heading? priya: the fixed income market is extreme the concerned about what is happening. political risk is always hard to price in. you've got binary outcomes. we are also worried about credit , how much of this is going to spill over into value sheets for banks, for corporate's, so i
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think the treasury market is reacting in a classic flight to quality safe haven type move. but the fed is setting up to hike as well, so i think the market pricing in this policy mistake is also a concern, that the fed is concerned about inflation. we are living through another stagflationary shock. is that going to make the fed overdo it? that is why we see the market pricing in cuts year from now, which is really a policy mistake of the fed. tom: dovetail your work with mark mccormack. he's been wonderful on strong dollar, resilient dollar, and the events have shown him to be very correct. with euro chris -- we have euro swissie at the precipice. link those worlds together. priya: i think what the market is worried about is that the fed has to respond to inflation. as much as they want to be humble and nimble, it's inflation -- if inflation is
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that hi, do they raise rates? that is going to tighten financial conditions. plus, we are living through a war that also tightens financial conditions, and the effect of financial conditions on the economy is very hard to measure. what the market is saying is that the fed may overdo it, but i would caution the market a bit on that. i think we are absolutely going to get a few hikes, but can the fed pause once they get rates to 1%, 1.5%, and reassess and really see if the economy is responding to financial conditions? they might be tolerant of higher inflation as long as it is decelerating. you talk about the jobs report not being that important, which is not, absolutely, but i would watch participation. if that starts to rise, that is some sign that labor supply is picking up, and that is going to bring some downward pressure on wage inflation. it might allow the fed to be a little more number in terms of pausing and preventing this
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policy mistake the market is starting to price in. lisa: this is similar to what people were pressing in, that this may not be as terrible for equities, that because the fed is not necessarily going to commit a policy error by raising too quickly, we will all have to tolerate a higher level inflation for a longer period of time. what does that mean for the long end? priya: it means that real rates, which would probably rise from here, probably not as much as what we saw in the last cycle. i think it also means inflation expectations are a bit higher. i think the long end, you're talking about the 10 year, the 30 year, can rise as rick evens on inflation stay high? i think real rates might be lower, but i do think nominal rates are likely to rise from here. are we getting to 3%, 4% on the 10 year? i think there's going to be a self-limiting aspect to how much the fed can tighten because
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there's a lot of other tightening happening from other areas. lisa: the reason we are not focused on the jobs report is because we are focused on that stagflationary shock you have mentioned earlier. how much has this environment gotten away from the fed? they have missed their window to make an impact on this market and it will really be dictated by how much the price of oil is, by how much the price of wheat is, aluminum and other commodities? priya: i do think there is the stec legionary shock, but i think the fed is more focused on service inflation yet i think that is going to drive how much tolerance they have. if that inflation metric starts to taper off, the fed can be a little more tolerant because we have seen energy price increases , food price increases in the past. the fed has looked through it because ultimately it does start to hurt the consumer. so i would watch that service inflation, wage inflation. that is where i am a little worried. if that does not decelerate, the
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fed may have no choice but to continue to tighten. i would watch that service number. jonathan: thank you, priya misra of td securities. the focus on what is taking place in ukraine right now, but next week, cpi is going to be a reminder stateside that the fed has a job to do. coming in at 7.8% for next week. scott brown of raymond james looking for 7.8%. thomas -- thomas costerg looking for 11%. tom: i'm going to go out to i believe the may 4 meeting. this was going to be transitory or it was going to ebb away in june, july, august. says who? jonathan: if we get an 8%
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handle, does 1.50% make sense on the two-year? 1.49%? lisa: when you start to get a shock from commodity prices, that actually eats into discretionary spending. so if you have that kind of backdrop, does the handle even matter if you are looking at a scenario moving so quickly? i think a lot of people are grappling with that right now, which is the reason why yields are where they are. jonathan: it will be hard to ignore it, that is for sure. they will want to ignore it. they can't ignore it anymore. tom: i'm looking at the bloomberg financial conditions index with legit math, and i'm sorry, it shows the tightening lisa is talking about. jonathan: payrolls an hour away. 423,000 the median estimate. our attention is not on that. it is on the war in ukraine. from new york city for our audience worldwide, on tv and radio, this is "bloomberg surveillance." yields lower by six basis points
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to 1.77 percent. crude through 110 dollars, and euro-dollar south of $110, -0.9% , a weaker euro. this is bloomberg. ♪
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jonathan: happening now, and news conference with nato secretary-general jens stol tenberg. the nasdaq down by 1.1%. the s&p 500 down about 0.5% through thursday. responsible for some of that, the european banks more broadly. deutsche bank on the week down by 22%. that has lost 25% of its market cap this week alone. it is not just about direct exposure to russia.
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it is also about the ecb not delivering those rate hikes people were looking for. tom: the dax drawdown from the peak is about 19%. the drawdowns that we see in america are way less, as jon has mentioned today. you've got the spx, you've got the dow, they are down. jonathan: they european names getting absolutely hammered, and the seemingly going one way, and the ecb was going to come along for the ride. now the doubt starts to get baked into the movement at the banks. lisa: also the currency, which is part of the reason you are seeing the euro fall out of bed. rates remain deeply negative. jonathan: the dollar the strongest since the summer of 2020. the treasury market shapes up as follows. switch up the board. about an hour from now, the
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expectation is payrolls north of 400,000. thursday we get cpi. could have an 8% handle. doesn't make sense to have twos south of 2.50% with that data point? tom: the challenge is none of this is in the textbook. we will talk to julia coronado about this in a moment, but this was original territory, and with this war it is truly original central-bank territory. jonathan: anybody talking about payroll system right? lisa: we are. [laughter] tom: we will go to jeff rosenberg -- professor rosener will be with us. no wait, he's with morgan stanley. jonathan: thanks for that, tom. we are not focused on payrolls, and for good reason.
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there's your cross asset price action. let's say good morning to romaine. romaine: the markets obviously still focused on the situation in ukraine. we saw a breakdown that is much worse than what we saw prior to the war here. keep in the automakers, starting to get some commentary about just how global the auto industry is. we had some of the smaller ev makers like rivian and lucid talking about potentially not being able to meet production targets this year. rivian said the only way it could do it is if it raises prices significantly. those stocks have gotten whipsawed, and you are seeing that trickle into the bigger players here. general motors lower, as is the lantus as they have a little bit more exposure to the european and asian markets. the real issue right now is not just about whether you can get your hands on chips. it is really about the steel, the aluminum, a lot of the other components that go into those cars. the big concern is that we could be in short supply should this
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war continue on. travel stocks remain on the back foot all week long. carnival corp. down for percent. they have said they are trying to make contingency plans for other ports in that area. american airlines down 2%. american airlines, like most u.s. airlines, don't actually hedge their fuel. american, united, jet fuel had no fuel hedges to speak of. jet fuel -- jetblue prices up 20% since russia invaded ukraine. citigroup and the bank stocks may not be as bad, but they are on the back foot this week. citigroup setting up for us words -- for its worst weekly decline since june of last year. tom: we've got a huge movement here, nowhere near the iraq pm lows we saw last eve asked the 8:00 p.m. lows we saw last evening, but -- we saw at 8:00 p.m. last evening.
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at the eccles building, they will say try something. julia coronado joins us out of macropolicy perspectives. the pressure is on. if somebody at the fed says to chairman powell try something, as fdr said, what exactly does he try? julia: i think right now he tries to remain calm. as jonathan highlighted, the fed is faced with some very difficult trade-offs. you've got an incredibly uncertain escalating situation in europe that could end up dragging in the u.s. and a more direct fashion. it is already complicating supply chains at a time of high inflation, so the fed was planning a series of rate hikes, quantitative tightening. i think for now you keep that baseline study and then you watch the events unfold, and you emphasize that they are going to
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proceed with care, with caution. this is a fundamentally different kind of supply chain disruption than the one that was driven by surging demand. this is driven by geopolitical breakdown, and that is something that the energy prices that consumers are about to get hit with, again, that is going to move a lot faster than any wages possibly can, so the resiliency of the u.s. consumer will be tested, as the jobs report is likely to show this morning we are coming in strong, so there is a pretty significant cushion of momentum to absorb this shock , but the data are going to have to tell the story and the fed is going to have to just be extremely careful here. tom: from economic history and moving over to the accounting statements of the world, there is a massive divide between new world theory, which is about the immediate income statement flows, and a more old world look
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about just look at the balance sheet. i think of the swiss as iconic at that. we have a central bank that is ready to be very balance sheet centric, be worried about liquidity, worried about the quality and the valuation of global assets? julia: definitely that is an input into these decisions. one of the things that gave people great confidence in 2022 despite fiscal tightening was balance sheets, strong balance sheets. we heard the fed say it over and over again. but if these assets start getting revalued very quickly and balance sheets look shakier -- and again, it is not just the level of the prices, but the uncertainty, so the volatility is something that gives people because, that affects business hiring and investment decisions, that affects consumer spending decisions, so again, calibrating this is going to be careful, but
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the market is going to be one of the key leading indicators. how much do financial conditions tighten is going to be something chair powell looks very carefully and closely at. lisa: it is definitely a delicate time. it is also a delicate time with a labor market that even jay powell said should assign some overheating. how much do you up scribe -- do you ascribe to the theory that this inflationary shock to high prices will push more people into the labor market, will actually increase the participation rate as people realize they have to fund themselves more aggressively? julia: if you look at prime age labor force participation, it has been on a very nice upward trend for a year now. so we are seeing people come back to the labor force, and there is every reason to expect
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that as the fiscal support fades and as inflation rises, and we are also seeing the things that held people back out of the labor force getting better. the omicron wave is behind us. we should start seeing better childcare operations and availability, and all of the things we expected to see. so i do expect a rising labor force participation to be something that is a key theme in labor markets this year, and i think all the leading indicators are there, and it is already underway. jonathan: julia, thanks for being with us on payrolls friday. julia coronado of macropolicy perspectives. we were hoping at the end of this year as the year grows older, the supply chain issues get better. now we've got something else in the mix that couple gaetz things once again. lisa: absolutely. how do you factor things into a world that is changing so dramatically? one thing i think we can't say
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enough is how much is this a game changer for so many people in terms of understanding the trajectory of economic growth. if this resolves quickly, perhaps we can go back into the conversations we were having before. this is a new dynamic. jonathan: i keep mentioning, we have a real lack of visibility on the outlook now, given what has happened in the last couple of weeks. the fed has got to put together some forecast next week and put up the summary of economic projections. growth, inflation, unemployment, all of the above. tom: you went up to 7.8% and even above, but the cover on let's weight is for that inflation report. what i would say is what we are seeing in terms of visibility is what you see with a bloomberg terminal or 100 years ago in any given war come the napoleonic more as an example, if you look at the markets, right now i am looking at the screen with deterioration. jonathan: we are pricing a
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problem in europe. i want to be clear about that. i don't think that is inflammatory. euro-dollar just woke 110. unicredit is down 9.5% in italy in a single day. some of these banks have lost 1/4 of their value. deutsche bank now down 7.4%. lisa: it is not just rates that are going to remain low for longer. it is also economic uncertainty. every analyst we speak to said it is more like stagflation in europe than in the u.s. tom: i remember you and i having lunch in zurich the day this was intervened in 2015. it could be today again. jonathan: are we at parity yet on the yen? not far off it. euro-dollar near session los. -- near session lows. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪
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ritika: keeping you up to date with news from around the world, with the first word, i'm ritika gupta. as the u.s. and allies tighten sanctions on russia and choke off investor demand for its assets, part of wall street are jumping on the buying opportunity it is creating. goldman sachs and jp morgan have been purchasing beaten company bonds tied to russia in recent days. thanks have to blind to comment. ash have declined to comment. -- have declined to comment. some members of the paris-based financial action task force have indicated iran has not made it enough -- made enough progress in tackling financial flows -- indicated the uae has not
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made enough progress in tackling financial flows. the new points-based plan will include scores for how the applicants' nationality contributes to the diversity of their firm. amongst the biggest visa changes ever for a nation that relies heavily on overseas labor. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> russia attacks new to your
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facilities in ukraine. this is a crime, nuclear terrorism, and should have international reaction. the international atomic energy agency should react to what is happening there. jonathan: very strong words coming from the president of lithuania. from new york city, good morning. futures down 0.8% on the s&p. on the nasdaq, down by 0.7%. eu. the dax off by 3%. the cac 40 in paris off by 3.4%. the banks getting hammered over there. euro-dollar, a break of 110. tom: i want to talk about what you just said from the gentleman from the baltic states. this is a huge deal. it is a sub story to ukraine, but the baltics are fragile this weekend. jonathan: commodities responding to a lot of this. paris wheat, record 400 euros a
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ton. tom: it is the one chart back 20 years where i can say it is a moonshot. there's no question about it. let's keep things going. kriti gupta on the same theme this money with a chart. kriti: it is about the impact in terms of russian assets in particular. those dollar bonds for a lot of the state owned giants come those commodity companies that are extremely exposed, here's why this is so significant. we're are looking at the british steel company very exposed. on tv will say, why am i looking at this chart? on radio, it is a horizontal line for two straight years, and then a steep vertical drop. those bonds are trading for as low as $.35 on the dollar. this is so significant because the movie you are seeing minimizes all of the trading activity you have seen in the last two years, and it is something you are seeing in the stock market as well. tom: as you just sat down, we have gone from 115 to 118 we
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greet -- 118 weaker ruble. right now, henrietta treyz joins us on washington. i've got to go to the gentlelady from baltimore, not san francisco, and that is nancy pelosi. she sounded like a republican yesterday. how close is nancy pelosi to powering the house to a stricter tone against mr. putin? henrietta: i think there is an option for votes in the house and even the senate for a resolution today. we don't want to import oil from russia anymore. we want to get on record. it is the same parallel i saw a month ago when everyone out was that's when everyone was coming up gung ho -- when everyone was coming up gung ho. but the reality is the private sector is self sanctioning.
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the crude and russia is not being purchased. they are concerned about secondary knockoff sanctions, or they want to promote domestic production. i think speaker pelosi is basically getting free money here, free political play, just as every other member is saying. let's get aggressive on putin, hit him where it hurts, and the white house is saying we don't need to. nobody is buying it anyway. so i think the speaker is doing what politicians like to do best, which is get a lot of really good talking points out, but i don't anticipate more than just a resolution saying we support being extra tough on putin. jonathan: we don't need to because nobody is buying it anyway. do you get the feeling they want people to buy russian crude isn't that the goal of carving out energy? henrietta: i get questions from staff on if china is going to purchase. that way to at least get it out into the system, but you don't see that either. we know their pipelines are at capacity.
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they have already russia -- they have already purchased russian crude at discounts in the last quarter. i do get the sense that there is a focus on not disrupting gas prices, and the white house, they are the only ones stressing that more than anything right now, while everyone else is saying ban oil imports. i thing it is an interesting dynamic that the biden administration continues to keep open because they want to make sure that russia and eu nations know that all sanctions options are on the table and that the eu is very much in lockstep with the united states on that. i think this is a lot of politics and a lot of trade, which inherently is political, and i think the white house is getting some really good talking points here. lisa: is president biden truly keeping the door open at this point, or has the plot shifted to oil and gas sanctions that are almost inevitable at this point? henrietta: i think what we should consider is the facts on the ground. the white house and the biden
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administration approved something like 9000 leases, more than the first year of the trump administration. we increased production by something like 4.5% last year. we have a backlog, if you speak with energy experts. i am married to one. if you look at what they are keeping shut in and are they producing, they are returning value to shareholders. i think we can get it out of the u.s., and the reality is imports from russia are down. jonathan: allow me to jump in because jens stoltenberg, the neto secondary general -- the nato secretary-general, is speaking. he says the next few days in ukraine are likely to be worse. if we assume this gets worse, can we assume what the next sanctions step will be? henrietta: i think one of the
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things the nato nations have done is clamping down every sector. what i understand will come next is targeted sanctions at individual sectors. i don't know whether it would be aerospace or insurance companies or shipping companies or certain sorts of production, but i think a more specific round of sanctions, i don't know whether that will be as coordinated with nato allies. all 27 nations get to pick how precisely they put on those sanctions, so i don't know if it will be a process, but some the more specific come through other than just oligarchs is something we are likely to see. i had been very optimistic we will see oil and gas sanctions, but i think it is more going to be that resolution i mentioned and instead shift to individual sectors as we try to target russia more holistically, a
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little more specifically. jonathan: thank you as always. jens stoltenberg, the nato secretary-general, speaking, calling on putin to withdraw forces immediately. we will do what it takes to protect nato territory. the nato secretary-general there. tom: no doubt the follow-on as secretary blinken attended those nato meetings, diplomacy at work. the market signaled the tone and color of that diplomacy. i want to be very careful here. dollar ruble and euro ruble is almost out to new record weakness. this has all happened literally in the last 30 minutes. we are going to print a $119 ruble in a matter of a heartbeat here, and that is extraordinary. jonathan: the line from stoltenberg repeatedly, nato is not seeking a war with russia. on sanctions, a conversation you
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do not want to miss with wally adeyemo, the u.s. deputy treasury secretary. crude north of $111 now. ♪ ♪
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