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tv   Bloomberg Markets European Close  Bloomberg  March 9, 2022 11:00am-12:00pm EST

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europe. this is "bloomberg markets: european close," with guy johnson and alix steel. ♪ guy: 30 minutes to go until the european close. it has been a really solid session, bouncing back from recent losses, up by 4% when it comes to the stoxx 600. when it comes to some of the other individual markets, you got five, 6% gains. let's talk about what is driving that. the car sector up very strongly. luxury stocks are doing well. the travel sector bouncing back as well. the stocks higher in the same cannot be said for the gas market. that is the dutch contract. you can see $158, down by 1/4 today. head of the ecb tomorrow.
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we have a handle once again on euro dollar, up by 1.32%. a key figure for christine lagarde to monitor. a weekly currency does not help -- a weaker currency does not help in this type of environment. kailey: the action really isn't so much in fx in the u.s.. it is in stocks, bonds and commodities. the s&p 500 up about 2.4%, so we are seeing the debt buying coming in. it is technology really leading the way. some massive moves to the upside for stocks. also moves to the upside when it comes to treasury yield. all of that factoring into the inflation conversation. some broadening in the commodity complex, even as you are seeing
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the u.s. embargo on russian energy imports. wti is down about 4.5%. even with that size, $118 a barrel, so goes to show you how far we have come. guy: absolutely amazing. we have the ecb coming up. we have the announcement and then the critical press conference. an inflationary hit coming as well. if you want to see that represented, take a look at the energy market today. the dax coming into the close. germany incredibly exposed to the russian energy story, so it is no surprise maybe that the germans have signaled their opposition to a ban on russian energy imports. we have seen pushback against sberbank onto the swiss
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sanctions list because that is the mechanism by which that energy is paid for. what is the state of play when it comes to the german economy? this to typical situation -- this difficult situation is continuing to evolve. bloomberg's frankfurt bureau chief is sitting next to me. you are a guru when it comes to german industrials. energy prices have soared massively. what is the state of play right now? >> the industry as such is very much exposed, as you said. i think at the moment, most of the policymakers have tried very hard to mitigate that exposure is good as they can, in a sense. they have been pushing back against targeting stronger sanctions than the ones that have been taken already. but at the moment, that is something that goes across entire industrial sectors. it is banks, machinery makers,
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pharmaceutical companies. they are all uncertain about the develop and's, and the exposure you just outlined is less about the industrial activity but more about the energy costs. that is a big concern for companies. guy: what would happen here if the energy was turned off, if there were hints coming from the russian spokeswoman today that this could be on the cards? the russians are reviewing their energy come, it's. what would happen if the energy was turned off? >> probably not too much in the near term. the government is made it very clear that the energy reserves would probably be sufficient to get through the summer, maybe the fall, but it is also very clear from a current perspective that reserves are not sufficient for the winter, and that is the big concern. the companies and policy makers still have enough time to try to get that reserves level up, but at the same time, if the russians were to move and cut off supplies, that would basically mean they would have to russian energy supply, which
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would be a pretty dramatic step. guy: thanks for being here, christoph. thank you very much, indeed. let's talk a little bit about what is happening down the road from here at the ecb. the meeting is underway already ahead of tomorrow's announcement and press conference. we are going to have dinner tonight, then they will continue the discussions tomorrow. constantine vite -- constantine -- constantine bite -- konstantin veit, pimco portfolio manager, joining us now. there's a gross effect coming from the ukrainian situation. the energy prices, the linkages that exist between companies like germany and russia, and then there's the inflation area impacts as well. she's obviously going to try and tread very cautiously. what does she need to do tomorrow to keep the show on the rails? konstantin: this will not be an
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easy one from a communication perspective. as you mentioned, there's the growth angle, the inflation angle, so the near term inflation trajectory is very clear, but the medium term trajectory is less clear than before. so to some extent, they can make the case to look through the current spike in inflation given that it is clearly a supply side story, a negative supply shock for the economy, but on the other hand, they cannot look through this forever because there is a risk down the line that goes into inflation expectations and assuages expectations to a large extent. the key for her will be to keep all options on the table, to remain flexible on both sides, and emphasize that they stand ready to end accommodation if need be. kailey: as we have been talking, a red headline just crossed the bloomberg terminal, a bloomberg's group that blackrock
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up its russia bet as the invasion was going on and has suffered record losses. the emerging frontiers fund lost 1/10 of its value in february. so obviously that is as we have seen the russian economy looking set to crater. firms are talking about a recession we have not seen in quite some time. as for the european economy, do you think it is heading for a recession? how is the ecb going to have to revive its growth outlook? konstantin: the base case at this stage is still not recession, but it is certainly higher than before. they might also characterize the risk to growth is tilted to the downside. so overall it speaks to being very cautious. we are in extreme uncertainty, and it would be very surprising if the ecb decisively runs in
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one direction or the other, so i would expect them to stay put, to highlight that they stand ready to do whatever it takes on both sides, to take on eventually high inflation, but also to make sure that they don't plunge the economy into a recession. guy: let's talk about the single currency. the euro has been under pressure. a weaker currency only exacerbates an inflation area impulse that is coming from this crisis. do you think there is a need for the ecb to actively talk up the single currency at this point? does the euro need to get stronger from here? how would they do that? is it raising rates, ending qe a little bit earlier? how would they lift the currency at the moment? konstantin: the currency
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naturally flows through into their staff projections, and i think the moves we have seen so far are simply not large enough to swing the pendulum one way or the other, so a weaker currency at the margin agile little bit to the inflation outlook and the stronger currency dampens the inflation outlook, but we would need to see much bigger moves for this to be relevant. so i think this consideration for the ecb at this point in time, i don't think they will try to actively top the currency up because of the risk of tightening of financial conditions, and this is probably map something they want to achieve at this point in time. kailey: as we are having this conversation about europe, about the ecb wanting to maybe stay supportive for longer, at least not move as aggressively, it is not necessarily the same conversation in the u.s. how do you view what could be a potentially growing divide across the atlantic? konstantin: i think that is an important point because the inflation picture is indeed very different get while headline
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inflation is elevated in both jurisdictions, the nature of inflation is very different. in the u.s., it is a demand lead story, and inflation story. you had stimulus, you have a red-hot labor market, pressure on wages, and to some extent inflation expectations, and that is not what you are seeing in the euro area, mainly driven by energy shocks and supply-side bottlenecks, so clearly this is something the ecb could to some extent look through, but if it drags on for too long it could become a problem. there is certainly a case to be made for the ecb being more patient than the fed at this point in time. guy: to that point, if this does drag on as you say come of the fear will be that we will see second-round effects. we are already seeing labor demanding higher wages in the united states. we have not seen as much of that in europe. when do you think it comes? konstantin: that is difficult to say. if you look at the current staff
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projections of the ecb, the projections of 2023 and 2024 are around 3% per employee. this is broadly the neville union -- the level you need to achieve your 2% inflation target. just as a reference, pre-pandemic, the decade before you had 1.7 percent compensation per employee, so that is quite a stretch. it is not inconceivable that we get there at some stage, but given what is going on currently and the elevated uncertainty, i think the risk at the margin to see second-round effects is probably a little lower than before the escalation of the conflict, given that it could well be that the labor unions prefer job security overpay rises. kailey: konstantin, thank you so much for joining us. of course, konstantin was just talking about the conflict. we are getting headlines out of the u.s. defense official says russia is closing in on kharkiv,
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still one of the largest cities in ukraine. an official also saying more than 110 missile launches against ukraine happened so far, but russia still lacks total air superiority over ukraine. coming up, we will take stock on what exact with the situation on the ground is. is there a possible peaceful end to the war? where has ukraine's president zelensky drawn the redline? we will hear from his deputy chief of staff next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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guy: russia says it has opened humanitarian routes in ukraine so civilians can leave a number of key cities safely. at the same time, the u.s. says the russians have stepped up their bombardment of the capital kyiv. bloomberg's maria tadeo spoke exquisitely tuesday deputy chief of staff to ukraine's president zelensky. take a listen to what he had to say. >> we all have to be very careful with the russian statements, be it good statements or bad statements. we have many propaganda statements throughout these two weeks of the war, but very
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important what has taken place on the ground is a continuation of -- continuation of trying to encircle the capital of ukraine, continuation to encircle a big city in the east of ukraine, kharkiv, continuation of bombing over the civilians of ukraine. that is why we absolutely resist during this war. if u.s. me whether there is age of lemat a solution, we already have a diplomatic solution in the level of delegation. our minister of foreign affairs will meet with foreign minister lavrov. we are ready to talk over a large perspective of topics, but
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we do not see that from president putin himself. we asked the world to have these direct negotiations, to sit down with putin at the negotiating table. maria: you make it clear that for this to be a solution, president zelensky have to sit down with vladimir putin. you still believe that need to happen. >> this needs to happen in order to bring in into the war. but it will under no circumstances be under putin's rules or ultimatums. first and foremost, our precondition for having such negotiations is its -- for having such negotiations is an immediate cease-fire and withdrawal of russian troops from ukraine. kailey: joining us now with more is andrew roberts come a visiting professor at king's college london. he was just in ukraine
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yesterday. thank you so much for joining us. he went on in that interview to say any agreement would not see ukraine cede any territory. do think there's hope for a diplomat at in the near-term -- a diplomatic resolution in the near-term? andrew: no, because i can't see president putin for a moment accepting those conditions that ukraine is setting out. guy: so what is your base case now? what do you think happens over the next few weeks and months? andrew: i think that either kyiv falls or it doesn't. if it does, you might see a partition of the country, the western half would be -- and the
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eastern half would be pro-russian and have a puppet government there. alternatively, if kyiv holds out in president zelensky continues to be president and live and breathe, then i think you will have essentially a victory for ukraine and the russians forced to leave. that is the reason you won't get an early cease-fire. kailey: victory for ukraine wouldn't necessarily be permanent, what? if we know -- permanent, would it? we know that vladimir putin's goal here is to get these territories as russian, not ukrainian. andrew: yes, absolutely. i don't like the term forever war at all. i don't think it always works. but nonetheless, people in
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ukraine at the moment are talking about this partition idea, but that only comes about as zelensky loses. he is there sort of church hill of the modern age -- sort of churchill of the modern age because he is demanding victory. guy: what needs to happen for that victory duke become a reality? the west is trying to figure out what it needs to do to support him and his forces right now. you've been on the ground. what do they need? andrew: the first thing they need are those 28 b 29's. that is important for them to get as soon as possible. that is going to be an american political decision ultimately.
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then it is going to take some time to recondition them. but nonetheless, being able to deny russia the power of the air, which in modern conflict on was always turns out to be the key factor, would be absolutely game changing. kailey: we just got a headline out of the u.s. defense official that the u.s. is working hard to get ukraine that defense it needs, and that the u.s. is seeing signs of russia dropping unguided bombs, so there is a question of what rules of war are at play, if any. from what you saw in the ground, what is the situation actually like in terms of how this battle is being fought? andrew: i wasn't in east ukraine yesterday, i was in west ukraine, but nonetheless, very clear that the rules of warfare are being ignored by the russians. we see various weaponry that is essentially illegal and
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certainly immoral and unethical. we are seeing the way in which the civilians are essentially being targeted, whatever the russians say. so it is a dirty war, essentially, by a rogue state. guy: we certainly don't hope we see the barrel bombs that were being dropped in syria as well. the fear in germany is that the gas supply gets shut off. there were some hints from a russian spokeswoman a little earlier on that that is being considered. do you think that vladimir putin will shut energy off to europe in response to the sanctions that have been applied thus far? andrew: i would not be surprised. of course, it is going to be extreme the expensive for him to do that, especially with oil at $138 a barrel. he's doing very well and continuing to supply energy
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to the west. it could be targeted. there are countries who he would love to see freeze this winter. others not so far away from where i am sitting at the moment might get a better trade. so you've got a series of choices for putin. but of course, they do cost him. guy: all of these actions have a reaction. andrew, thank you very much, indeed. andrew roberts of king's college london. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪
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guy: four and a half minutes to go until the end of trading here in europe. what a trading day it is turning out to be. the stoxx 600 is up nicely. the ftse is up by 2.5%, but it has been outperforming recently. look at the tax.
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i am here in frank -- the dax. i am here in frankfurt today. the dax up by 7% today. the cac 40 up by 6.5%. the ecb coming up tomorrow is a major event. where these markets simply oversold, or is there something more to it? is there optimism that maybe we will see energy markets stabilizing? that has certainly been a factor here today in germany. we will deal with the details in just a moment. some really interesting stocks on the move today. adidas climbing nicely off the back of its guidance. wizz having a better day as well. we will push you forward to the ecb. that is coming up. this is bloomberg. ♪
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guy: 30 seconds until the end of regular trading for european equities and we are roaring into
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the close. a massive upside day for europeans doctor. that map -- for european stocks. that map does not do justice. the gains on substantial volume. the ftse is up 3% but it is an underperformer after outperforming recently. the cac 40 is up 6.64%. germany the market is up 7.1% as we head into the close. you can caveat that by saying year to date is down 13.48%. what we are seeing today is a big rally to the upside for the short-term equity markets oversold position. let's take into the details and talk about how the session has developed. i'm not sure the session chart does it justice. the stoxx 600 up for catch up
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4.26% -- the stoxx 600 up 4.26%. other asset classes are interesting. the ecb tomorrow. christine lagarde will welcome a stronger euro, up 1.67%, trading up through 110. gas prices have come down sharply. the price of gas today, most people do not buy gas on the spot, but we are seeing the price down 30%. then we get a big selloff in the bond market. it is fascinating to watch what is happening. we continue to see yields grinding higher. it is interesting we are seeing stocks and bonds in a different direction once again. they did that relationship starting to be reestablished. there have been recent days
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where stocks have been going down and bonds have been going down as well. let's look at the stoxx 600 from a sector point of view. up at the top you have the car sector doing well, you have the luxury sector up as well, the travel sector having a solid day. at the bottom of the two outperformers of recent days, the mining sector and the energy sector. let's talk about individual names with exposure to central and eastern europe. it has been beaten up. wizz declining 15.22%. this is the central european low-cost carrier. adidas out with really good numbers. the numbers are mixed but the guidance is good from adidas. con up in the big bounce we are seeing in german stocks. adidas looks like it will close up nearly 13% today. kailey: a big bounce in stocks
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in europe. a headline just crossing -- tin dropping in london. let's talk about oil. prices in the futures market have risen more than 30% is the invasion of ukraine. the secretary-general says there is no shortage of oil. he says the cartel will continue to meet supply. >> we will do whatever we can to contribute our quarter in mitigating this catastrophe that is facing the global energy industry. >> we had the occidental ceo on earlier. she said prices could go as high as $150 a barrel. do you agree with that? >> with opec, we concentrated on
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the supply and demand balance. facing the global energy i had dinner with vicki and i know her views. there is a common discussion on where prices are heading. there is a perceived shortage in the market. i can tell you as of this morning there is not physical shortage for oil. there is a very strong perception in the market because of the volume that is at stake stop the russian federation is the second largest exporter of hydrocarbons in the world, second only to saudi arabia. therefore you can understand the anxiety of the markets while
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this is seven to eight bottles of export incumbent. this is a matter of perception and projections, but physically there is no shortage of oil at the moment. guy: that was the outgoing opec secretary-general speaking with bloomberg's kriti gupta at the conference in houston. as we were playing you that tape we got a headline coming out of the financial times reporting the uae is to call it opec-plus to increase oil production. the plus is significant. the other headline you mentioned , tin dropping in london, the biggest loss since 2010. how do you invest in metals markets when we are getting the kind of volatility we are
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seeing? we are watching what is happening is nickel. huge swings in commodities making people nervous of investing into the space. the volatility looks like it will continue and be substantial. what happens next to the metals market, what should we expect to be seeing. tyler broda joining us from rbc, where he is the head of eu metal mining research. thanks for your time today. that tin headline encapsulates the story for me. huge amounts of volatility. how do people put money for work when we are seeing these kind of rice swings? tyler: the volatility is unprecedented. you see what is happening in nickel. the potential implications all of this has on funding for commodity markets. another variable which is still developing. we will go through a short-term phase where the market has to
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react to the change that has come through with having the sharp cut off of russian supplies out of the markets. we still have no whether these russian metals -- we still do not know whether these russian metals will find their way into the global markets. china has been notably absent from taking part in russian commodities in the last couple of weeks, being worried about sanctions. whether or not that changes as time goes on -- as you say, incredibly volatile situation. from our conversation with clients there is a lot of hesitation. kailey: obviously there's a difference between the near term and what could go wrong in the long term. we are talking about europe accelerating its transition to different energy sources. all of that needs metals as well . i'm wondering what the longer-term repercussions of the conflict are beyond the immediate supply challenges? tyler: you're absolutely right.
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there paradigm shifts from what is happening already with this conflict regardless of how we develop. the amount of mental will try to bake forward for decarbonization -- the amount of metal we will try to bring forward for decarbonization will be a big pressure on demand. it probably leads to a bigger problem. especially when you cut off russian supply and certain commodities come it will create an underlying -- it has knock on implications on wider demand as well. there were lots of different factors pushing through. as we go forward a lot of metals will be needed. a lot more than we need today. guy: is the base case that the metals market is the global
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market ex russia? is that the base case going forward? tyler: i do not think there is a definitive base case because we have a problem. over time we will see some of this metal find its way out, whether it is unscrupulous traders or whether there is some kind of deal that happens in china. we are at a point where that is the case -- in terms of last three weeks, that is exactly what is happening. that means we are short 40% of the world's palladium. it means metals like nickel and coal are all in deficits and we need to redo the global structure it in some cases we will be left without enough metals to have the same consumption we have had in the past. guy: -- kailey: we spent time focusing on industrial metals. what about precious? what is your view on gold?
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tyler: we are becoming more positive on the gold space since the invasion. even before that we have a set up where we have rising inflation expectations and the fed will create the potential for challenges in the wider markets. ukraine invasion by russia creates a problem set for the central banks but it will be incredibly challenging to deal with. if you look at what is happened since the invasion inflation expectations are up about 50 basis waits on the 10 year. there is a real expectation we could have inflation moving higher than the current 7% to 8%. if that happens that is an environment culture do very well in. guy: a lot of people do not have the opportunity to be able to play individual metals commodities. they do have an opportunity to buy commodities stocks. what is the relationship
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currently between commodities and commodity stocks? you talk about inflation. i'm imagining foster going through the roof. -- i'm imagining costs are going through the roof. how do you imagine stops versus physical? which way would you be going? tyler: that is a way to look at it. with the gold miners, based on where the price of energy is versus the price of gold, the margins might be tighter. i think gold prices have good prospects so that probably alleviates over time. you've probably seen a 10% to 20% increase in the cost base with where current energy prices
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are. by and large, the stocks should be seen their margins expand comment especially when you have access to metals, stops like glencore, exposed to nickel and coalare. , stocks like anglo america, i think that is at this point the best way to play the sector. guy: miners not down very secto. guy: miners not down very much. glencore only down 1.20%. great stuff. appreciate your analysis. tyler broda of rbc capital markets. not much action during the auction process. european stocks have had an incredible day. the dax is up nearly 8%. these are closing numbers. the cac 40 clearing the 7% margin. the ftse 100 lower by the energy stocks, lower by the mining
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stocks, still managing to push higher by 2.8%. the numbers absolutely i watering. the dax up nearly 8%. this is bloomberg. ♪
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ritika: this is "the european close." coming up, sam's out, citigroup chair -- sam zell, citigroup chairman and founder. this is bloomberg. let's check in on the bloomberg first word news. in ukraine, president zelensky says some civilians are escaping around kyiv after russia agreed to open humanitarian corridors. ukraine says not all of those pathways are open yet.
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the u.s. warns russian forces are stepping up their bombardment of the capital stop at top biden administration energy official is downplaying report that the leader of saudi arabia and the uae snubbed president biden when the president wanted to talk to them about rising oil prices. >> this is one of the biggest oil countries that is investing more in their own disruption and energy transition and that is another area of critical cooperation between united states and the saudi's. we are talking to them and have a good discussion with other producers. i feel very strongly we are in a good place. ritika: global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i am ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. guy? guy: thank you very much, indeed. bnp paribas off starting to lay out its exposure to the ongoing crisis in ukraine and the
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sanctions being exposed to russia. tomorrow in the building behind me, deutsche bank holds its investor day. i will be speaking to the cfo. deutsche bank will be the first major european lender to take questions on how business is going since the war broke out stop it will be a pivotal moment for the european banking story. steven arons who covers the european banking giant for bloomberg joins us now. what can we expect tomorrow? this was meant to be the big update but we have the shadow of the cranial war over deutsche bank. i imagine the focus will be firmly there, at least initially stop stephen: i think you are totally right. investor focus will be on the implications of the war on banks and deutsche bank specifically. i am certaieram certain there wn
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update on the exposure. other banks have updated the argument on their exposure. deutsche bank has not yet given that detail and that is what i expect for tomorrow. the other questions about the new plan, new targets, there will be a higher profitability target and stuff like that. we will have time to talk about other topics in the war. kailey: obviously there are the direct effects, and then there the ripple effects of the war, which has been a lot of volatility in markets across asset classes. could that be a boon on the trading desk for deutsche bank? steven: it could be. you never know. these people always take bets. sometimes you are on the losing
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end and sometimes you're on the winning end. i'm curve by the fifth quarter we will have gains on the commodities desk. deutsche bank does not have a commodities desk but they have a fairly big emerging markets desk. we will see. that is a question people are asking, how well or how badly it has been doing. guy: in terms of the biggest risk for deutsche bank, is it what is happening in russia directly? my understanding is they do not have a huge exposure there, or is it the risk to what is happening with the german economy? we do not know what will happen with gas supplies. the german economy could be hit really hard. that will have an impact into the corporate clients they are pimping towards. -- they are going towards. talk me through the point into the german economy. steven: you are right.
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they are focusing on the german markets since they first unveiled turnaround. who've already seed write-downs on loans given to nord stream 2, the pipeline that was about to open before russia invaded ukraine. that is now don -- that is now gone. many carmakers have announced production stops. we just heard someone talking about the impact on metals and what that means for the energy transition. all of that will have ripple effects for deutsche bank's. interesting to see how big. kailey: bloomberg steven arons, thank you so much. we all look forward to deutsche bank and guide's interview with the ceo tomorrow. coming up, flesh look at
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inflation in the u.s.. the cpi picture will not tell the whole story. this is bloomberg. ♪
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guy: we will get a couple of takes on inflation tomorrow. the european central bank with its decision. we also get the projections on patient. we will get the inflation data out of the united states at the same time, just before christine lagarde's press conference. cpi number, the bloomberg survey number 7.8% year on year. that is february data. joining us is michael mckee. 7.8% year on year. is a risk to that number to the upside or the downside? michael: probably to the downside. the thing to keep in mind is february data. except for the last few days in
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february it does not encompass what happened -- it encompasses what happened during that month, does not encompass the war. it will be interesting to see the ecb forecast for what the war will mean, particular for energy. we just got the new bloomberg survey of economists for march, where they think inflation is going, they have marked up every category by about 1%. they are looking at cpi for the year to be at 6.1%. it was at 5% last month. guy: we got a job number a couple of hours ago, job openings out of the united states. another strong number. the prior number was revised up even more. the labor market story in the united states continues to look strong. this is a labor market that looks like it is at full employment. given the data we have with jobs and cpi, is 25 really the base case going into the next fed
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meeting? michael: i think it is. this data is backward looking. the problem for the fed's we do not know with the impact of the russian war is. they will probably take it carefully this first time and see before may where we are. guy: jay powell certainly hitting -- certainly hitting at that. looking for rich -- looking forward to your coverage tomorrow. coming up, balance of power. sam zell joining david westin. i will take a turn at bloomberg radio as well. the cable show taking to the air at the top of the hour. a huge day for european equity markets. we will certainly discuss that. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> from the world of politics -- >> we are reinforcing all of the
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baltics and poland with nato forces as a deterrent. >> to the world of business -- >> we are trying to bring something but it is a new version. the old and the new version. >> this is "balance of power" with david westin. david: from bloomberg's world headquarters in new york to our tv and radio audiences worldwide, welcome to "balance of power." we start again today with ukraine. as the conflict continues we hear from the defense department russian troops may be encircling kharkiv even as some people look for a diplomatic solution. we turned to joe mathieu at the white house. bring us up to speed on where things stand with ukraine. joe


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