tv Bloomberg Surveillance Bloomberg March 11, 2022 8:00am-9:00am EST
♪ >> this war is exacerbating trends we were already seeing. >> there is no equilibrium for the market. >> there's no doubt there is more vulnerability in the forecast. >> the risk of punching a more negative growth outlook is certainly one to be considered. >> the fed wants growth to slow some. they think it is going faster than sustainable. but they don't want to overdo it. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning, everyone. on an eventful friday, on radio, on television, i look at one headline from putin, up we go.
we have given up 40% of that move in the last hour. jonathan: futures up 47 on the s&p. positive developments, the line from vladimir putin, and a couple of hours to go. tom: we have to go right to annmarie hordern's important interview with the foreign minister of ukraine in the 11:00 hour. he is confirming more news which directly goes into the bond market and the write-downs ahead. jonathan: we keep going back to it, the difference between what they are telling us and what is happening on the ground. we need to get the other side of the story. how do you -- how did the ukrainians interpret what is happening at the moment? what we got from the ukrainian foreign minister yesterday, i don't think that characterizes things as positive in any way, shape or form. tom: we see what bloomberg news does with the ukraine update and
all the different complexities. the financial times and blackrock with some form of estimated right down, and i go to the telegraph, and james crisp with stunning photos of a massive attack planned. lisa: how do you have discussions about possibly ending the conflict when you are still getting bombed? i think that is one key question i am curious to hear from the ukrainian foreign minister. is that a precondition to any serious talks with vladimir putin? he says there's progress being made. how much progress of the bonds are still falling? tom: what will you listen for from president biden? lisa: what additionally the u.s. is able to do. i am thinking of aluminum, thinking of uranium. that is definitely catching people's attention. also, how to transform what we are seeing on the inflation front into something that is used directly to combat the war in ukraine rather than the broad-based inflationary
pressures we have been seeing for a number of months now. tom: goldman sachs, first out of the box with what we are going to see this week. everything is back to growth, markdowns, and jan hatzius gets out front. jonathan: those three things, how poisonous are they? to lisa's point on what the president might do later, the import of russian goods, can he get the eu to come along for the ride? just go through the numbers. russia sells about 1/3 of its exports to the eu, 5% to the u.s. europe is a much bigger issue here. in the u.s. get the europeans to follow? tom: we saw u.k. sections off of duma members here. i'm going to go to the haven measurement, a more constructive say haven screen that a few days ago. jonathan: things have picked up in the last hour or so.
futures up a little more than 1% on the s&p. the nasdaq 100 up 1.3 percent, colette 1.4% -- call it 1.4% yield. crude backing away in a big way, now positive just 0.3% at $126.23. tom: we have an incredibly important interview at 8:45 on the international relations of this war. right now on the equity markets and the mathematics of it, amy wu silverman joins with rbc capital markets. i look at some of the famous volatility services yesterday. this is fancy dynamics off the bloomberg. what do i see? its massively enhanced volatility across the complex. explain the cost in real word -- in real-world terms of trying to play volatility here. amy: we are breathing rarefied
air in terms of volatility. we are an extremely high levels. if you were just looking for a simple hedge, it is going to cost you. we were talking about views are a little skewed when you have absolute levels of implied volatility hi. those numbers and percentile changes start to look low. i would say these hedges are expensive, but that does not mean that they will not necessarily pay out. jonathan: talk to me about opportunity. what is the big call for you? amy: it really depends if you have to be in the market or you don't. if you have to be in the market, if you are already fully positioned, i think overwriting strategy is essentially strategy where you have already been long the stock and you are selling calls on top of it. makes sense now because of the high levels, but absolute volatility levels are high.
they've been high the full-time. the second thing is you can be tactical about it. i still think there are terror whisks that abound, so if you are -- there are tail risks that abound, so i think they make a lot of sense even though the price tag may shock a few people. lisa: we are talking about some of the disruptions in the commodity space, with lme and what happens there. do you see any hands of potential issues with collateral, with counterparty risk, as you talk about doubling down and some of the derivatives spaces? amy: it is an interesting question because one thing we were speaking with clients about yesterday was just these defaults on the bond side. i learned about the aggregate function of bloomberg yesterday because we were talking about how much of their exposure are indifferent various russian bonds. you are not seeing those tail risks quite yet in the options market, so people aren't really
owning for some sort of damage. as we get further along and there is still no offramp, people are starting to look at this, and they have been through the credit proxies. but i think they will start to get more single stocks as well. lisa: our margins being increased not necessarily margin calls yet come but are there more conservator will garments -- margin calls yet, but are there more conservative requirements to make wages? amy: in the x options market, things are still business as usual. i think there are some pockets of exception. i forget what the etf's name is, we are still waiting to see what will happen to the auctions there. we have seen that was various other products that passed their
view -- that passed there. what i have learned is interesting is sometimes it is completely up to whoever that provider is. sometimes there's more clear rules around it. right now that is not something we are seeing. it is the exception of a few etf's tied to russia. jonathan: wonderful to catch up. amy wu silverman of rbc capital markets. want to get to this headline from nestle. they have stopped importing non-essential products to russia. non-essential products include nespresso. those comments coming in a statement on the website. we are starting to see wall street finally joined the long list of companies pulling back, and for obvious reasons for wall street, it takes a while to untangle some of those relationships and pull back. much more complicated in many
ways, but we are starting to see it. one that stands out for others, sydney has a much bigger presence there. if they want to step back, can they make a sale in the only thing away from a sale that is going to be a bank sanctioned? tom: the phrase i would use is work out. be you do a complete write-off, but even if you write it off, what happens to mr. putin in the zeitgeist is talking about nationalization in some of these businesses, commercial, or banking. i would really suggest the complexities here are not understood. jonathan: are we catching up with damian next? because there's a coupon payment coming up next week for the russian sovereign that are going to get a lot of attention, for good reason. lisa: because what is the actual
rule now, they are banned from making coupon payments on sovereign debt? do you actually know the logistics of it? jonathan: i don't. just let damian dewitt. very confusing. lisa: there was also a payment bond to foreigners, which is the reason we have not got a lot of fault yet. jonathan: can we bring it home to the united states? i just heard from neil dutta of renaissance macro a few moments ago, pointing me towards this. on the employment front in america, according to the center small business poll survey, firms reported increased paid employment and hours worked the highest since october. services seeing some follow-through from reopening as well. there are good things still happening in the was economy, and i think that is a subtle pushback against what may be we
have heard from goldman more recently. tom: yes, i would aggressively say there are some good things happening in the economy, and the real issue here is do wages come up a little bit. they are not going to come up to 7.9%, but do we get wage growth that actually shows some life? jonathan: is it fair to say that this is one of the most difficult fed meetings for this fed chair in quite a while? tom: we don't have the textbooks. wait, there aren't any. it is a war. we are distant. they know in europe this is a war. jonathan: yields are 2% on tens. for tens, heard on radio, things on tv, you're not l -- heard on radio, seen on tv, an exclusive interview with ukraine's foreign minister with annmarie hordern. this is bloomberg. ritika: keeping you up to date
with news from around the world, with the first word, i'm ritika gupta. president biden set to a call -- set to call for an end to russia's preferred trading status today. the president can't unilaterally change the trade status because that authority lies with congress. most, craddick and republican lawmakers have called for suspending those normal trade relations. u.s. senate has passed a spending bill that includes $13.6 billion in security and human terry and aid for ukraine, part of the $1.5 trillion measure that will keep the federal government in operation for the rest of the fiscal year. federal agencies will hit 6.7% increase. the bill now goes to president biden for his signature. economists surveyed by bloomberg expect policymakers to be cautious when it comes to raising a just rates. according to the survey, the central bank will raise rates for the first time since 2018. economists also say the fed will signal a faster pace of hikes this year. though they may be cautious because of the war in ukraine.
or powers in iran suspended the accord that is likely to leave a spike in oil prices. a top eu diplomats has negotiators failed to bridge major differences. the two sides have been close to salvaging the agreement. blackrock reportedly has taken a $17 billion hit in losses on its russian security holdings. the vast majority of those ocean assets can't be sold in the wake of the russian invasion of ukraine. blackrock is the world's largest asset manager and has $10 trillion in assets under management. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪
♪ pres. biden: a battle for freedom has its cost here at home as well. people already are feeling putin's price hikes at the pump. as painful as the prices are today, the cost is going to be higher if we do not act now to deal with this tyrant. jonathan: this story is going to be with us for a while. inflation through 2022 and perhaps beyond. the president calling it putin's price hikes. futures still up, but nowhere
near session highs, up 0.9% on the s&p. on the nasdaq, up 1.2 percent. earlier today, a lift off the back of some comments from president putin on some positive developments. yields stay 32% -- yields stay through 2% on the day. still exposing itself, unraveling, revealed by "the ft," blackrock takes a hit on russia exposure. tom: thank you to matt miller to bring this to my attention. on blackrock -- -- and i guess blackrock is so big it doesn't matter. what does it mean for those that are not blackrock?
damian: is the etf assets. it had as much as $400 million from russia on the books at the end of january. tom: so what is the pressure on a friday afternoon? let's figure out what this stuff is worth now. damian: good luck trying to find it out. remember, a lot of the assets specifically at big institutions like blackrock are under managed accounts. we are not even going to see the extent of the losses for some days, some weeks, some months. even we we were talking pimco, we were talking $1.5 billion in cds exposure. these are just numbers on a piece of paper. it is hard for us to say. it is next wednesday. what do you think is going to be more important, the fed, or russia defaulting on coupon payments? that is the real issue here, and
that is where my eyes are focused. jonathan: the language they are, russia is going to default. that is the language you used. is it that certain? damian: it is. basically -- the 23's are trading at $0.23 on the dollar. the market is already pricing in a default. if you look at cds today, it is a 92% probability of default. lisa: considering the fact it is pretty much priced in, what is the difference between the clearing it a default and where we are right now? damian: a technical default, there's going to be a 30 day grace. on those russian sovereign bonds, so they can go into default, but honestly, i am just trying to keep this in my ear, the reality is technical default, they're definitely going to go into technical. rosneft did make dollar payments
on those bonds. what i am hearing from my sources is the fact that the money was there, we know that, but even in a restructuring, those dollars were not going to be able to go back on shore to russia anyway. tom: i'm staying with this. this is great. matt is obnoxious and he is in my ear. i am glad i don't have to hear him. it is good. this is important because, does it roll into full faith and credit? does the corporate world of russia rollover into the money that putin really controls? damian: the money putin really controls is the money on shore. i have spent a lot of time looking at the super mike of russia's rep site -- russia's webs -- the central bank of russia's website. let me be clear, they have not had as much activity in the repo market since february 2016. this dwarfs anything we saw into any 14, when the russian central
banks used the repo market because they are seeing depositors remove all cash from their local deposits. they need to replenish those by going to the repo market. i am talking sberbank, vtb. they are going in droves, which means their local banking system is crumbling as we speak. tom: take your earpiece out. i give up. let me talk to you about this. you are a grizzled pro at this, and you and i have lived 1998 and a few other joys along the way, including an fx crisis, the collapse in the cartel, but it did to bolivia in 1985. all week, not talking about em, my radar is up. how does this mess affect em? damian: look at what we are doing. look at how the u.s. is approaching venezuela, one white auto -- juan guaidado, nicolas maduro.
we are taking steps to replenish the lost barrels we are losing, according to russia. i don't know if we are going to ban russian oil and gas. i am not even going to comment on that. but what you can comment is the new relationships forming at the margin. look at south korea. amidst it all, we have not talked about the 12th largest economy on the planet has had a leadership change, a pivot towards the u.s., towards japan. we will see more of that in lieu of what is going on. he's going to have a lot of trouble passing legislation. he's facing a super majority in the senate and house in korea. the fact of the matter is this is real. you will see a lot more economies pivoting toward the u.s. tom: i mentioned it this week, the turkish lira with a difficult week as well. we will have to follow that on the black sea. damian sassower, thank you so much. i recommend earpiece 101. ferro flunked it twice before he
finally figured it out. jonathan: i use a molded one now, tom. tom: i tried the molded one. i hear better with the regular one. i hear better with this one them with any of the molded ones i've ever had. jonathan: we will hook damian up a little bit later. this note from ubs, we use 56% less oil to produce a dollar of gdp today than we did in 1973. thank you to sam for flagging that one for me on twitter. tom: it goes to the bloomberg commodity index chart i showed and inflation-adjusted, i stole that from damian sassower were. this is not the 1970's on all sorts of different parts of the commodity landscape. jonathan: less commodity intensive. but the bottom line, people need to eat. they need to use energy. it is getting more expensive. lisa: people need to eat. it is not just oil and gas.
jonathan: live from new york city, your market with a lift going into the opening bell, up a little more than 1% on the s&p. on the nasdaq 100 up 83, advancing 1.4%. yields climbing. on the 10 year, on the two year still around 1.70 going into the federal reserve meeting next wednesday. right now 1.73. fruit is negative, it was -- crude is negative. a lot of this developing in the last few hours off the back of one line from vladimir putin. the russian president. there are certain positive developments as far as negotiators from our side
informed me. vladimir putin to his belarus counterpart. at 10:15 eastern you will hear from the president of the united states, expected to open up the way to introduce tariffs on russian imports. after that, 11:30 eastern time, we will hear from the ukrainian foreign minister with bloomberg's and murray and that is where we -- bloomberg's annmarie hordern and that is where we get the other side of the story. tom: there's been a stunning silence out of ukraine. i want to suggest maria tadeo's conversation 24 hours ago with the leader of estonia who is royalty in estonia and the 60 miles across the gulf of finland to helsinki the focus today is on the fact that the finish president's front and center as the most important person in europe. jonathan: and future membership
of nato will be a big issue for that country as the finnish president speaks with the russian president. we understand from the finnish president's office, i'm waiting for readout. tom: i'm seeing one in the last 12 seconds. finland calls on vladimir putin to enact cease-fire in ukraine. i would say no surprise. jonathan: do you think this has driven this country to shift further towards the west? we often describe this, and i think this is an interesting conversation, we always think about nato going to the east and into the east. not an inch eastwards, you know all of that, what about these countries going to the west. tom: i would suggest sweden is
different than finland and it will be a nuanced separation between the discussions. emotionally it is about st. petersburg, and to the far north it is about the huge summary enable facilities -- huge submarine enable facilities the russian federation has near finland. right now we will migrate and try to get out front of a fed meeting no one is talking about except it is important. lauren goodwin is with new york life investments and she is monitoring the ebb and flow of the american economy. chairman powell is in an impossible position with rising and patient and his goldman sachs markdown and shorter economic rope. which will be more important for you on march 16. lauren: good morning. inflation is the top concern for the fed.
we will see 25 basis points out of the fed wednesday and for the next meeting after that as the fed is trying to get ahead or come from behind on the inflation challenge. that is what they are going to be a little more patient. i do expect to see a revision in the dot plot to show five or six interest rate increases this year. tom: at new york life you are hugely focused on the assumption of your investments. how do you do that as an economist at new york life given a war in ukraine and given the massive uncertainty moving from pandemic to war. how do you advise new york life on what their model interest
rate should be? lauren: there's a lot of uncertainty in the near term but we have the benefit of being able to think in the long term when it comes to actuarial assumptions and being there in our policyholders. short-term impacts like this, they certainly matter in the markets. we have been extremely tactical in trading on the investment side of the business. on the insurance side of the business steady as she goes is the theme of the game. we have not seen any impact to our assumptions based on this crisis. the tactical -- lisa: the tactical trading you're doing now, how few navigated with this uncertainty? lauren: exhaustion us events tend to exacerbate pre-existing trends in the market and it is all about been nation here. when it comes to being -- it has all been about inflation here. when it comes to being in the
market and leading into the pre-existing asset classes that were favorable to us. when it comes to inflation resilience, investors can be tactical. investors thinking about retirement are thinking about inflation resilience, asset classes also supported by structural trends, things like infrastructure, real estate, floating-rate bonds. trying to bridge that balance between what is happening in the market day in and day out with the goals of investors is a bridge we try to balance. lisa: citigroup put out a note this morning where they said they expect 200 basis of rate hikes this year. that means they would end the year with the fed funds rate near where the 10 year rate is right now. you fourth see this -- you foresee this being a serious concern given the concerns wrap inflation? lauren: our expectation is for slightly less hiking.
the impact remains to be seen. risks are to the hawkish side so i think it is reasonable we can expect an acceleration in the fed hiking cycle. the reason we think five to six interest rate hikes is we also have the factor of quantitative tightening. the fed allowing the balance sheet rolloff which will have an impact on financial conditions and the impact a real economic factors like inflation and growth is less certain. there will be an impact to market transmission of those impacts. risks to the hawkish side, but i still expect slightly less hawkish fed than what you have described. jonathan: 200 basis points this year sounds like a lot. lauren goodwin of the new york life investment. 200 basis point includes a 50 basis point hike in may or later this year. that is a lot of work for the fed to do with the yield curve
south of 30 basis points before they've even made the move. lisa: we have heard from these fed officials they are not that concerned about yield curve inversion, that they view some of the distortions in the market as creating less of a signal of recession from this exact measure. how much are they going to be looking at potential disturbances in the markets and has the market really price that in? i thought it was striking that others were saying that it's already been priced in. if that is the case, let's go. jonathan: have you seen high-yield spreads? what are we up year to date? lisa: we saw a record outflow this week and a u.s. investment-grade bond fund. at what point does it percolate into conditions of tightening? tom: we did this on radio yesterday with lisa abramowicz. if you go to the website spi
fe22, this is a global international confab run by vladimir putin. it is still up, 15 -- june 15 to june 18, 2022, i've been invited three times. for the st. petersburg forum or davos in may, i wonder where is globalization in 12 months? that is secondary to the agony we are seeing in ukraine. it is germane to global finance. where is the stability in a year? jonathan: is part of the process , the consequence of what we have seen play out, deglobalization. people started think about security and producing things at home. does that come with a higher price? for a lot of people the answer is yes. we face higher prices, we are seeing tighter financial conditions. we are about to see slower
growth in europe. to put it altogether, go through the goldman list. tighter financial conditions, softer consumer sentiment, slower european growth. of those things what really worries the federal reserve as they look to embark on a rate hiking cycle? tom: christine lagarde in the confusion with lagarde. at the end of the press conference where there hawkish? jonathan: can you make a sense of that press conference yesterday? have you and lisa doing a press conference without letting me know? lisa: it has been happening all week. why weren't you listening? jonathan: no one told me. what we join together.
we could've done that for a special. tom: it is like five levels above. jonathan: you know when you are a kid and all of the other eight-year-olds go to a party you do not find that was happening and you find out monday morning? lisa: you have a story to tell us? jonathan: that did not happen. maybe it did. futures on the nasdaq up 1.2%. tom: in this grimness we miss the humor. jonathan: we are not. there is good reason. the hope we talk about when the equity market is up. i go back to a day this week when we were talking about the prospect of a breakthrough in diplomacy and markets were up. on the same evening, the pictures that dominated the news without a picture of the s&p 500. it was the tragedy in mariupol and that is the contrast. the words versus the reality. lisa: is the carnage on the ground and the 2.5 million plus refugees who now find themselves without a home trying to find out how they move forward. from new york city, this is bloomberg. ritika: keeping you up-to-date
with news from around the world. the united nations says 2.5 million people have now fled you rain since the start of the invasion a little more than two weeks ago. millions more are said to be displaced within ukraine. majority of those are entering poland. a new study says the global death toll from the coronavirus could be 18.2 million, three times higher than official record suggest. a study from the university of washington suggests a lack of testing and unreliable data to explain. in china xi jinping wants to ensure -- he may put a loyalist he has known for decades in charge of the economic and financial systems. shares of london-based publishing company pearson fell
the most in two years. it has rejected takeover proposals from apollo global management. it has a market cap of $7.7 billion and is undergoing a rocky turnaround effort. singer and fashion entrepreneur rihanna is working with an advisor that could value her lingerie company at $3 billion or more. bloomberg has learned a listing could happen as soon as this year. the company raised 100 when he $5 million in january. -- raised $125 million in january. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪
i do not think the sanctions will be reversed very quickly. from a macro economic point of view, we will feel the effects of this quickly for a while. tom: i will not mince words. may be more than in years i will anxiously stop near 7:00 tonight for the weekly prospect of the jp morgan team led by michael feroli and always with an essay by dr. katzman. relationship with russia well past world war i and back to the czars. right now lisa abramowicz and i are thrilled to present with you myra rodriguez, managing principal of mrv associates who is beyond esteem and the study of russia. from harvard long ago.
what does our audience need to know right now about the loneliness of vladimir putin? myra: this is a man who for a long time has been planning this tragic invasion. for anybody who has been observing this, we are not surprised, sadly. i do not know how alone he is. he actually has a lot of supporters. he have had -- he has had support for decades among any russians, not just in the upper echelon of the prevalent. -- upper echelon of the kremlin. he has a lot of supporters in the former soviet union. he has done this invasion because he thought he could get away with it. tom: what is the media getting wrong in our analysis?
there is a global onslaught of the analysis of the military, the humanitarian crisis, what does not ring true right now? myra: i think there's a lot of truth in what the media is saying. i think unfortunately, my biggest fear is with time there'll be a level of wariness and there will be the next big story. it could be out of asia. i worry people are going to be weary and tired and that is what vladimir putin is also counting on. i think the media needs to focus on the fact that not only is there the tragic loss of life in ukraine, but there'll be decades of incredible dislocation in that country from the psychological effects as well of being at war. from markets perspective, a lot less important than the human toll, but the markets are also going to feel the volatility. we are seeing a lot of action in
metals, we are seeing action in the spreads. there'll be a contagion effect in emerging markets. lisa: we have been trying to game out the potential contagion effect for big banks. how do you assess the potential risk at a time where it is not just the operations in russia with the likes of goldman sachs and jp morgan exiting the region , but also all of the instruments tied to it and all of the instruments tied to the commodities that are significantly affected. how are you going about gaming that out? myra: that is a great point and i am glad you reminded your viewers up at. from a credit perspective, american banks have little risk with russia. if you look at goldman sachs announcement is pulling out less than 1% of our assets are in russia. i happen to be working in jp
morgan when it was first getting into russian markets in the mid-90's. the absence of the percent -- from a credit perspective the risk is low. the market risk is much higher. all kinds of commodity bonds, you have securitization based on russian assets, you have foreign-exchange portfolios, then you have the fact you have all kinds of countries like sri lanka, the former fsu, the former soviet union countries, some in latin america that are very interconnected to exports and imports, not to mention africa. that is where i worry some of that spillover is going to happen, more from a market risk perspective rather than a credit risk perspective. lisa: are there specific banks
you are keeping your eye on? mayra: definitely unicredit from italy, those banks are much more exposed russia from a credit perspective. then there's also the market risk perspective. of course citibank, goldman sachs, j.p. morgan, they are the largest trading houses, you will still see volatility in their trading portfolios. it will not just be russia and ukraine. it'll be all of the emerging market portfolios they trade. tom: thank you so much. we will do it again very soon. i look at these russian experts, lisa, and they have a depth of knowledge, clearly with understanding the language that none of us have. i cannot even tie their shoelaces. they are filling it. lisa: right now is an important
time to have that kind of understanding. i want to go to mayra's point, looking to the price action in that bank, it is down 38%. you've seen dramatic devaluation of european banks because of the risk and i thought it was helpful to understand how significant the risk of other nations that rely on the imports from ukraine and russia could be. tom: you mentioned unicredit of italy and milan. i had the clearest memories of the overt eastern european expansion of unicredit. i do not have any opinion on socgen or unicredit. there was a business plan 20 years ago that many of these people executed. you mentioned citigroup earlier. what is the working number at citigroup? $10 million? lisa: unicredit down a most 40% in that time. tom: we will continue forward with an eventful friday.
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the countdown to the open starts right now. >> everything you need to get set for the start of u.s. trading. this is "bloomberg: the open" with jonathan ferro. jonathan: live from new york city, we begin with the big issue. russia stepping up its assault across ukraine. president biden commending ukrainian efforts, delivering another warning for vladimir putin. pres. biden: united states and people around the world will continue to support the ukrainian people. ukraine will never be a victory for putin. jonathan: the president speaking from the white house in just over one hour, prepared to announce the end of russia's preferred trade status and declaring the wafers
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