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tv   Bloomberg Surveillance  Bloomberg  March 29, 2022 8:00am-9:00am EDT

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>> i am very concerned that all of these higher prices will lead to different spending choices and for people to pull back. >> i'm very impressed and surprised at how resilient equities have been. >> we still have to focus on what the central banks are going to do. >> i am more focused on the overall level of rates and most importantly the shape of the curve. >> this is certainly shaping up as a very different economic cycle from anything we have seen in the recent past. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning, everyone.
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on radio, on television, an important point in the war in ukraine. we blow up the show now this 8:00 hour in new york. the headlines speak and the markets react. tom: i have to say -- jonathan: i have to say, we have repeated this a couple of times now, following talks, a constructive tone from both sides. ukraine coming straight out of the gate and suggesting there's ground for a meeting between the two leaders come of vladimir putin and president zelenskyy. russia pledging to sharply cut military operations in and around ukraine's capital. that is some good news for this disaster that has unfolded for all of our eyes on the ukrainian people over the last month. tom: our conversations forward in this hour are two important. ruble and 10 big figures says all. jonathan: futures up by 0.5%. we saw a two-year yield in
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germany through zero. positive territory for the first time since 2014. crude is interesting. let's try to go through things calmly. we had a gap lower on brent crude, and then we snapped back a little bit. this is good news for the war effort for the ukrainians on the ground in ukraine. from a markets perspective, this removes the risk of escalation in sanctions. what i don't think it does is take any of those sanctions away anytime soon, and i think what it does do is stop things from getting worse, but not necessarily help things get better in the energy market. tom: you've got to believe mr. biden will speak off of this news this morning. lisa: we are all hoping this is solid, but it doesn't -- but it does go to the question, how quickly does russia get back into the international sphere at a time when there is huge dependency on the commodities? do we still maintain supply chain disruption, the food disruptions, the oil sanctions
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that are causing the inflationary inputs to all rise at a substantial pace? tom: for global wall street, we will speak with the oil minister of the united arab emirates at this historic point, but first, maria tadeo. jonathan: joins us right now out of europe. let's start here, the headlines out of ukraine come out of russia. you also agree that for the first time, they are actually quite aligned, a constructive view? maria: you are right that the ukrainian delegation and russian delegation walk away with the same conclusions. every time it was a very different picture, where the two sides would be very far apart. this time it does seem that they attended the same meeting and agreed to a number of issues. the thing that caught my eye is russia saying we are open to this meeting between valletta mayor zelenskyy and vladimir putin. -- between vol a lot of mayor zelenskyy as between valletta mayor zelenskyy -- between
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valletta mayor zelenskyy -- between the a lot of their zelenskyy -- between valletta may zelenskyy -- between valletta mayor zelenskyy -- and president putin. we remember the pictures in the capital city of ukraine. there has been an idea for days that this is an operation that had already failed for russia, perhaps trying to save face for the fact that russia has really solidified its control of the ukrainian capital. jonathan: the whole of the last two months, it has been incredible difficult to trust the russian side. they told us they were not going to invade. they invaded. when they say they are going to sharply cut military operations, have we got any detail over what that actually means and how we will verify it in the coming days?
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maria: we will have to verify it . they have flat out lied about targeting civilians. a lot of this has to be verified and we will probably have to wait to me which is key here is the russians saying we agree, we need to pull back some of the deployment in order to have neutral trust in the talks, so that is a good thing. we have seen many different talks happening here. he's employing his political capital. he said this week we need something on paper. lisa: how willing are weston leaders to reward this if it
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sticks, in terms of withdrawing troops and easing some of the sanctions, versus continuing to penalize what a lot of people view as completely unjust and frankly a humanitarian disaster in ukraine caused by the invasion? maria: it is a disaster when you look at mariupol. 80% of the city has been destroyed. the ukrainians are insisting that war crimes have been committed, but you mckay very good point. the first thing the russians will say is that we have shown you goodwill, so you have to lifted sanctions. -- to lift the sanctions. this will create a huge fight within the european union because some countries would be inclined to do that, and some in eastern europe have already told me we should not do this. we don't learn from history until the russians pull back completely. we should not lift any of the sanctions on the country. jonathan: thank you, maria
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tadeo. a big move in dollar ruble by 11%. russian assets will be well off of this, but who trades them? not many people now, that is for sure. a decent move in europe. on the equity benchmark in frank for -- in frankfurt, the dax up. what it does unlock i think from here, if you can tell me this does not get worse, if you can convince me that is the case for the rest of this year, it is an opening for the ecb. that speaks to the move we are seeing at the front end in germany, and that for -- and for that matter, throughout the whole of the curve this morning. tom: and asymmetric at that, and again theory of the moment on what many would say is financed by energy. the british protectorate that became the united arab emirates, the families of united arab emirates came together with the
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power of abu dhabi and their oil to control a large part of the market and culturally to be a huge part of the arabian peninsula. suhail bin mohamed al mazrouei joins us now, the uae minister of energy, and he is hugely qualified to speak on these matters. thank you so much for joining bloomberg this morning. i would like to know the power that an ascendant united arab emirates has now over russia. explain the dialogue. explain the change in the relationship of uae with russia in the last weeks. >> it is great to be with you and to address your audiences. first of all, uae is a member of
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an alliance called opec+. that alliance is doing a great job, and my view, balancing the market, balancing supply and demand. we have a history within that alliance, and we have been through wars. we have been through conflict, been through sanctions. some of the members, iran and venezuela. but something we always do, we have one objective only, which is trying to maintain the supply to the market and ensure that that supply is affordable. nowadays when the geopolitics
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sets in, the price is going higher and we are increasing production gradually according to our plan, but we cannot under any circumstances see a replacement for 10% of the world's production. so i don't think actively if we bring politics into the organization we can help the consumers. tom: you say that, sir, but very importantly, others within abu dhabi are considering their russian businesses. should the united arab emirates provide sanctions of some form, formal or informal, to mr. putin in russia? suhail: i am not going to talk about the politics. i'm here to tell you about the
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market. i'm here to tell you what can we do to ensure that the consumers in the u.s. and europe and elsewhere are getting an affordable supply of hydrocarbon. in order for us to do that, we have to use every battle that is available. if you are asked -- every barrel that is available. if you are asking us to increase , then you are asking the price to be higher, and that is something we cannot do. lisa: excuse me, i am wondering. you say it is important to have affordable gas, affordable crude. what is affordable? what is the line in the sand when it comes to a price point for you? suhail: the price is the result, the balance between supply and demand.
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you know we do our best, and the world six months ago convened in cop-26 and ask the financial institutions to limit the financing of new oil and gas projects, and now six months after that, they are asking to pump more oil. that does not go hand-in-hand. we need now to put a strategy and come up with resources to find new barrels. we have already lost and growth more than one million barrels. lisa: you raise such an interesting point about the lack of investment which has caused a lapse of production in this market, which is a reason why people say it is so tight. is there a price at which the supply-demand push and pull is a lot higher than it used to be for opec? is $100 a barrel much more
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sustainable over a longer term for you based on the lack of production and the lack of investment? suhail: we always look at the consumers, and we all know that the current prices today are not comfortable too many countries. we need to get the prices to something that is reasonable. what is that price level? [indiscernible] we can bring more oil and sustain that oil for years to come. as you know, the world is almost consuming 100 million barrels a day. every year we lose 8 million of that. very limited countries are investing or canned and ford to invest at $20 oil to $100 today.
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so it is not encouraging investments, and many countries and shareholders have been a reliable part. that is troublesome when you have a geopolitical conflict like we have today. we need to get our act together. we will do whatever we can as opec+, but we need the financial markets. we need the lenders to start using on financing so we can bring more barrels in the future. jonathan: if you are taking this so seriously, why was the opec+ meeting this month 13 minutes long? suhail: well, we are meeting in two days and looking at the
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markets. jonathan: sure, but that was not the question, minister. just go back to the meeting, it was 13 minutes long. this is one of the biggest energy crises we have seen, and you had a gathering that lasted 13 minutes. why should we take what you are doing seriously if you only meet for 30 minutes? suhail: well, when we meet, we look at the known and unknown, and there are less unknowns at that meeting, including how many barrels are we going to miss. another thing is the deal was around, which is a major partner and producer in the alliance, all of these things are unknown to us, so it is very difficult to come and make other than the
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plans. so we increased fee 400,000. tom: i'm fascinated by the view east from dubai and i would happy to india. -- and abu dhabi to india or you could you please explain the indian response to this war in ukraine? such an interesting relationship between the united arab emirates and india. please exchange -- please explain to us the india that you see. suhail: many countries have purchased or looked at opportunities, and some have seen a discount and acted on it. these decisions of these countries, we don't have we will and gas sanctions on russian oil and gas, so many countries have
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looked and many others are going to do the same. so thinking of squeezing outside the market when the discount is there is just delusional, and my view. jonathan: we have to leave it there. thank you for being us -- for being with us this morning. the uae energy minister on some of the headlines this morning. if you are just tuning in on tv and radio, for the first time following talks between the ukraine and russia, this time in turkey, we seem to have a constructive tone from both sides. the ukrainians indicating they stand for a meeting between the two leaders. on top of that, russia going another step, pledging to sharply cut military around
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ukraine capital. futures up 0.6% on the s&p. maybe things are getting a bit better. tom: i would love to hear what russia says about the boxy, about the past -- the black sea, the path from odessa to crimea and beyond. that has been devastated. there are no comments on that. jonathan: just as we had this conversation, j&j come out with this statement to suspend supply of personal care products in russia. companies have left. they are leaving. how much needs to be done for them to go back anytime soon? lisa: it seems unlikely that anything in the near term could bring them back, which is why analyst after analyst is coming out now and saying that the sanctions are not going to be lifted quickly and there is going to be a satyr with some european union. how do you offer some sort of reward to get troops out of
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ukraine when it has been a humanitarian disaster and people really are not willing to morally compromise in terms of how they treat that? tom: good tuesday morning on bloomberg radio, on bloomberg television. we will keep you abreast of the data with these headlines out of ukraine, and critically out of istanbul as well. coming, david malpass, president of the world bank, in an important conversation we hope on russia with someone from the council of foreign relations. right now on what this devolves down to for investment, brent schutte joins us, chief investment strategist at northwestern mutual, where short-term, i would suggest, is three years. the uncertainty of the moment causes confusion for anyone looking long-term. how do you adapt? brent: i think jonathan hit the nail on the head when he talked about uncertainty. the most important part is it is a little bit more translucent
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than yesterday. the longer term, i still think you had room for the market to move higher. certainly the rising oil prices put pressure on inflation, but all in all, the economy is still in a different place. that means we have moved to ruin -- we have room to move higher. lisa: does that give the fed the green light to go ice aggressively as they can? brent: i don't know. i guess to me, the fed will try to tighten as much as they need to to get the inflation narrative under control a bit. we will see if their actions follow. i still don't believe the fed intends to cause any sort of economic recession like over tightening. they want to tighten to keep inflation and expectations of the control, which is been lost in all of this. the five-year five-year breakeven is hardly out of control. this is a 1984. this is 2022.
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to me that does not mean the fed has to overdo it. inflation expectations are not embedded yet. it is not permanent. lisa: meanwhile, i was looking at this dashboard that gina martin adams put out, where basically only 10 out of 15 indicators were flashing yellow or red, and only five remaining are green, including relative earnings-per-share growth. of these flashing signs, which are you actually watching to see if you should change your constructive view? brent: i think people are focusing on the yield curve come first and foremost. let's stick about what is actually happening with quantitative easing over the past few years and how distorted the term premium is probably on the 10 year treasury. to me i would take that with a grain of salt. certainly it shows that we are aging and the cycle, getting further along. a recession could still be two years away, and during that time, the markets move higher. we kind of put this into numbers but cannot -- because i noticed
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the spread between 10 and two was sometimes around -- was somewhere around eight this morning. you did not have a recession until 2001 and you had one of the best equity markets in the history of this country. so realize that it is one indicator. overall, the consumer is still in good shape and corporations are still in good shape, so i don't think a recession is imminent. i think we so have room to run. tom: we were weaned on the optimal portfolio. some of us know that price down, yield up can occur. does the efficient portfolio work here with bonds in retreat? brent: yes, people think about a 60/40 as only being the s&p on the bond market. i think people have gotten an
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education, and they will continue going forward. the s&p 500 is still expensive. you get better earnings growth right now outside the s&p 500 at a cheaper price, so i'm not investing -- i'm not suggesting investors run from not, but i think the economy has for the room to run. jonathan: thank you for being with us. brent schutte of northwestern mutual. working through headlines following talks between ukraine and russia. got to work through some important price action, was equities getting a lift and things getting interesting in the european bond market. unlocking high yields in germany, a positive nominal yield on a german two-year off the back of encouraging headlines out of ukraine and russia. always important to have a skeptical mind about how we move forward from here, but certainly encouraging over the last hour. tom: we've got to take this point, to go 111 euro, we
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weren't expecting that, and there it is. jonathan: you can expect the ecb, does that make them go forward with interest rates later this year? that is how people are thinking about things, and the fx market at least. tom: there are moments of privilege at bloomberg, and one of them was a good come along decade or more so a go in a small room with thomas schelling, the giant of thinking about war, the nobel laureate, where he and i sat mesmerized as professor schelling spoke about how you end wars. liana fix has taken this to a new wonderful extreme in "foreign affairs magazine," with the koerber foundation. we are honored she could join us this morning. i love how you framed if russia wins, if russia loses. fetzer schelling would suggest the only way to end a war is exhaustion. do we need an exhausted putin?
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liana: what we certainly need is a sustainable peace and not a provisional piece. despite the optimistic views of today, this will be the main challenge for ukraine in negotiations. basically, how to prevent that any negotiations right now with russia will only leave ukraine weaker, especially in military terms, and could encourage russia to come back in a couple of months or years to finish the business they started. that is the crucial point, how to prevent an unjust peace and prevent also continuation of a very cruel war we have seen so far. tom: if russia wins or russia loses, is the equal outcome a partition of ukraine? liana: i think the challenge now
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is that we don't see the clear options anymore. russia is too weak to win, but at the same time, they are too strong to lose. that makes the situation right now so difficult to navigate. the ukrainians have put up a formidable resistance, but again, they are also two week to make was her -- to make russia withdraw from all parts of ukraine. so the question you just raise will be a crucial one in negotiations. for president zelenskyy, who has been able to gather ukrainians behind his brave and courageous
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is no appetite whatsoever to give up on crimea or other parts of ukraine, but also from the russian side, they will want to leave negotiations with successes they can sell at home. the russian perspective would to be have liberated the donbass and ukraine. lisa: so we can understand the points of leverage here and what brought both sides to the table at the place where they are now, was it the sanctions or was it really the resistance that has brought vladimir putin to a more compromising stance? liana: absolutely both. without ukraine's resistance, we would not have seen this incredible sanctions package. there were a an international outcry, so what helps ukraine is weakening russia's position and putting further pressure on russia to not put out maximalist positions, but to be open for compromise. this is the moment where we have to keep up pressure on russia,
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and only if ukraine asks us to think about sanctions, then we can consider these options. our main aim should be how can we help ukraine to negotiate a sustainable peace. that should be the goal of all western policy at the moment. lisa: it goes to this question of what the west's response should be in order to get vladimir putin to continue negotiating and to continue to make good. how much will there be discussions about loosening some of the sanctions in response to a certain period of cease fire? is that feasible, or does that seem wrong, considering the fact that we are still talking about war crimes? liana: this is a discussion that we might have at some point, but certainly not the discussion we should have now. we have seen in the past, though we have asked them not to
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follow-up, until we see some incredible withdrawals, some indication that russia is willing to make a presence, we should not waste the issues -- we should no raise the issues of sanctions yet. it might be a tough decision to make to prevent that russia has further ambitions towards nuclear security -- that russia has further ambitions towards its nuclear security. tom: is putin a nuclear threat? liana: he is certainly willing
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to use nuclear as an instrument. he has many more prevention on means before he would actually consider the nuclear option. we have learned from the past that we should never say never when it comes to putin and russia, but again, this is something that, at the moment, he used the west to deter the west from further support for ukraine. military support for ukraine will be incredibly important for years perhaps. as a same time, being coolheaded as the u.s. president has been when he did not raise the u.s. levels of forces. that is at the moment the right
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strategy, but not to pick up anything because the russian has president -- because the russian president proved in the past. jonathan: thank you. it is progress to see the ukrainians in the russians come out of talks with a constructive tone, both of which they share. looking at markets at the moment, up 0.9% on the s&p 500. on the nasdaq, a list of 1%. in europe, if you're looking at the bond market, yields higher on treasuries as we start to think about maybe the prospect of interest rate hikes all over the again from the ecb. this line from the ukrainians, the talks with russia will continue tonight. if you are just tuning income of the headlines from both the ukrainian office in the russian -- the ukrainian office and the russians are both constructive.
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so some encouraging signs from talks in turkey this morning. tom: in the data, i don't know where to begin. obviously the most enthusiastic is the nasdaq, up 1%. to me, it is the retreat of the swiss franc, rounded up, really an indication of the relief right now. jonathan: on wti, down. down on brent, too. tom: thanks to our team for adapting and adjusting. we know adapt with david malpass, president of the world bank. i know he's laughing at me because he knows i really what to quiz him on yen valuation nine, x, but that would be appropriate this morning with the president of the world bank. want to cut to the chase.
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if you shifted the world bank to aid, how would you assist in that process? diana: is a worldwide -- david: it is a worldwide process, but markets are really adjusting some. the world bank puts a lot of money into food and aid, one of the crises facing poor people. we do $17 billion per year in various forms of food support. one of the critical things for people in poor countries is that they have targeted support, meaning not subsidies that support everyone, or can you targeted towards the people that needed the most. we have put in a lot of money already. we were able to disperse over
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i've hundred million dollars, aid that was much needed by the government, and they were early in the war. tom: i am absolutely fascinated, and i say this with great respect for the institution, how the world bank treats russia. mom is ago -- bloomberg making decisions in the last 48 hours on the use of our terminal within russia. david malpass, how does the world bank address a sanctioned russia around your usual mandates? david: russia is shareholder of the world bank and purchase baits in board discussions we stopped lending to the dashed discussions. we stopped lending to
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the -- we stopped lending to them after the crimea invasion. many people have come out of russia. the bigger issue is building a response for not only ukraine, but for the refugees in eastern europe. lisa: wheat is still incredibly elevated. you have seen some of the farming fields and ukraine decimated. farmers can't get out there. how much is this going to disrupt your ability to help and what you think should be priced into the market? david: critical is that supply increase outside of russia and ukraine. ukraine may have some come back in crops, but you need to have fertilizer and seeds and the planting cycle, so a critical
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variable for the world is how responsive is supply elsewhere. that could send us for subsidies that are being done that sometimes stop people from producing and increasing their output. as far as refugees, we have a great gill of contacts with the other agencies that, along with the world bank, are responding to refugees in poland, romania, and egypt that are directly engaging with the refugees and helping the european agencies that are helping those people. lisa: we hope that your efforts are successful. we were talking about what we hope this change is if this cease fire does come to fruition. if this is real, how much does this change your outlook? how much an improvement for you
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are just moving and presenting the -- to you? david: i was just in senegal and morocco. the burdens on countries that are facing fragility in the region. in north africa, the problem is the weapons and flow coming into islamic fundamentalism that even this morning, there was a bombing in nigeria. these are big problems, and on top of that, the price of diesel fuel goes up, so the best response from the world can be more production and market action. if they were allowed to ship peanuts to the united states,
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right now their biggest customer is china. it buys some 400,000 tons per year, and the u.s. not because we have so many barriers. the ethanol subsidies in the u.s. are so expensive that it destroys the market. i just want to make the point that there's a lot that the advanced economies can do to allow people to sell to those markets. tom: there is the david malpass we know and love from another time and place. one final comment, if you will. you have a staff that is world-class -- speaks of resiliency and food. how do you bring food resiliency to the planting season of ukraine? david: fertilizer from western
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europe, they have been cut off from belarus, but i think secession of violence is the first start. ukrainian farmers included, so you have to stop the war and then quickly provide them enough funding for seeds and the fertilizer. i think those steps could still be taken here in march. jonathan:jonathan: david malpass, thank you. valuable conversation, and a timely one, too. central bank is reacting out of europe. the governor in the governing council saying, "listing rates to zero in 2022 is important for
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policy." steve englander a standard chartered coming out with this, 50 basis point moves at the may and june meetings. just published moments ago. tom: i'm sorry i don't have it in front of me, but someone saying we can get the surprise of the ecb go along all -- ecb going along with the fed and raising rates. jonathan: they have a sequence to go through. they haven't got there yet. so that might be a story for later on this year. at the moment they are working on the lack of this. let's pour through the news together and reset. we have some talks this morning between ukraine and russia and turkey. they have wrapped up. they will continue into tonight as well. the ukrainians suggesting that they want to have a meeting between zelenskyy and vladimir putin, and the russians agreeing to pull back from around
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ukraine's capital. it seems the focus shifts away to the eastern sleeve of the country into the donbass and separatist regions, and what can be achieved there, if anything at all. for the moment, things don't get worse, and that is encouraging for pretty much everyone. lisa: the idea that the shifters has focused to the eastern region rather than flutter my book and -- rather than vladimir talking about kyiv, i am just curious how much we get a shift of concern to the fed if the fed can move faster, if the ecb can move faster. what does that do? jonathan: we will catch up on that story. in this equity market, a squeeze higher. it continues, up 0.8% on the s&p. this is bloomberg. lisa m: keeping you up to date with news from around the world, with the first word, i'm lisa mateo.
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russia will cut military operations near to city in ukraine, including the capital of kyiv. moscow says talks are in a practical phase, and a meeting between residents is possible. -- set the stage for negotiations, which had passed its own version. the measure included $52 billion to bolster tip manufacturing. nielsen, the tv ratings company has agreed to be bought by a group of of equity firms for about $16 billion in cash. the consortium is led by brookfield asset management and elliott management. unitedhealth has agreed to pay about $5.4 billion in cash for home health provider lhc. it will become of unitedhealth
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s optimum health unit. it provides more than 12 million at-home patient interventions a year. actor will smith has apologized for slapping presenter chris rock on stage at the academy awards. the academy has opened a review of the misbehavior. ticket prices for rock's comedy tour have surged. the minimum price rose from $46 to $341. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm lisa mateo. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> inflation is not just a u.s. story. it is a global story, especially
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in europe. the inflation dynamics are a lot more pronounced because they are dependent on russian oil, and they have a greater propensity to go into a recession. tom: subadra rajappa, head of u.s. rates strategy at socgen, on a most historic day. a massive sigh of relief. we will see on all that we know of this war in ukraine. lisa, as you speculated 20 minutes ago, news from "the wall street journal" on a telephone call. lisa: president biden is reportedly going to convene a call with a number of leaders, including mario draghi of italy, olaf scholz of germany, and many omciron of france, -- emmanuel macron of france, boris johnson. it will be interesting to see whether they can really support ukraine in this versus how much they need to remain skeptical of honesty and some of these negotiations on the russian side. tom: we will continue to monitor
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those headlines, and of course, they have been constructive for markets, even safe havens like euro swissie. round it up, weaker swiss franc is one example. we finish strong with jane, head of foreign-exchange strategy with rabobank. rabobank has its pulse -- has the pulse on business transactions worldwide. i've got eight ways to go this morning, but i think we do must -- we must go to the news. how does dollar react to the good news out of ukraine, if we are actually blessed with it? jane: the markets have been reacting to this. it is a dampener for the dollar in that the dollar is a safe haven, just as it is a good thing for the european currencies. have been at the bottom of the pile since this war started. it is good for euro, even
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sterling against the u.s. dollar, but with got to remember that part of the puzzle in terms of what are driving currencies are the interest rate targets. we are assuming that the fed will be hiking aggressively, and that will put a lot of support under the dollar against various currencies in the year ahead. tom: dxy with a dash to 100, weaker dollar off this good news. lisa: even if this means the federal reserve could raise rates more quickly because there is not this tail risk hanging out there, if these talks are truly making the progress a lot of people are hoping for, i wonder, given the fact that we are seeing some speculation, including from steve englander omens ago, that this will allow the fed to move faster. do you think the market's knee-jerk response is wrong and that the dollar can appreciate even verses, for example, the euro, despite some sort of peace in ukraine? jane: of course, we don't have
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concrete proof of the peace yet come up so the market is just speculating at this moment. that is going to be really directional as to whether that piece does -- whether that peace does bring calm to the table. despite the growth coming from energies in europe is this perception that the ecb could be hiking interest rates quite aggressively. this morning the market was pricing and about 425 basis point increase is over the next year -- about four 25 basis point increases over the next year. we've got to remember that not all inflation is equal, and we don't have the same degree of wage inflation in the euro zone as we do in the u.s. the ecb could be hiking to keep inflation expectations lower. it does not need to hike as much
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as the federal reserve because it does not have those second-order inflation aspects right now. lisa: if there is some sort of peace that does get established in ukraine, what is your base case for euro-dollar? jane: if we go back to where we were before the war, we were pivoting around 113 or so. i think we still have the issue of higher energy prices in europe, and that won't necessarily go away because even if there is peace, we are not necessarily going to have the europeans say let's go back to energy policy with russia the way it was before. i still think they will be trying to move away to alternative sources, and that means that there's higher costs in europe for longer. that is something which will repress growth. so while they still may hike sooner to keep inflation expectations lower, you are still going to have that headwind to growth that you wouldn't have had had there not
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been a war. i think that will mean that over the next 18 months or so, euro-dollar will still be lower than it would have been overlies -- would have been otherwise. tom: jane foley, thank you so much. with rabobank, of course. in the foreign-exchange market, the last 48 hours have been absolutely extraordinary. lisa: i know you have been very focused on the japanese yen come of the weakest versus the dollar, now tracing this expectation that they will not allow this ongoing we getting and will have to abandon some of their pinning of the yield curve. i wonder how much we look at and emboldened federal reserve. how much do we suddenly shift the worries about a tail risk from eastern europe into a tail risk coming from central banks trying to convince markets to believe them that they really are going to be as hawkish as a lot of people have been pricing
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in? tom: what is fascinating here, this came up four times yesterday, who cares about japan? who cares about yen? insular nation, etc. the dynamics of trade and the entire dimon -- entire dynamics of the pacific rim, my brain can't even right now. i need more tang. but the answer is japan matters. lisa: especially as you talk about havens. what are the havens in this normal we are living in with the post-poll -- the push-pull? is it apple shares, or do we look like a base haven trade that looks like something to -- something we use to know? tom: we will get to that throughout the morning. the vix is absolutely stunning,
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21, 20, just reaching 19, 18.8 on the vix, from 17 back on down. i think that defines round-trip. stay with us on bloomberg radio and television. good morning. ♪ >> welcome back to another special miami open update for bloomberg tv and radio from tennis channel. the superstars came out to play monday at the joint masters 1000 event. world number one seek us one tick -- the world number one took out phenom coco golf -- phenom coco gauff to reach the final for the first time. naomi osaka cruised into the elite eight for the second consecutive year after she got past allison riske. taylor frisk won the battle of
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the stars & stripes against compatriot, paul -- compatriot tommy paul. don't forget, tennis channel's daily live coverage from the miami open starts at 11:00
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jonathon: do we have a breakthrough in peace talks echo the countdown to the open starts right now.
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announcer: everything you need to get set for the start of u.s. trading. this is bloomberg "the open" with jonathan ferrero. ♪ jonathon: live from new york city, we begin with a big issue, a change of tone. peace talks in turkey developing into something we haven't seen before throughout this devastating war. president zelenskyy meeting is on the table. team coverage starts right now in berlin. maria, put it all together for us. the fee from both sides in the last hour. maria: what i would say is this is the first time where we


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