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tv   Bloomberg Markets European Open  Bloomberg  May 4, 2022 3:00am-4:00am EDT

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francine: let's take a look at futures. it's all about the fed positioning. if you look at what traders are expecting, three hikes, 50 basis points for the next three meetings. the ftse pretty much flat and the dax pretty much flat. if you look at the oil embargo, are we going to have to ration, that is the million dollar's chin. tom: when it comes to the fed, will 50 basis points be taken as dovish by the markets. the rba with that surprise increase above estimates from australia. will the fed also open the door to 75 basis points. the longer-term question is whether the fed can actually engineer a soft landing amid concerns about inflationary pressures. let's check in on markets in europe. gains of 12% in spain.
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-- .2% in spain. the handoff is there, but with that volatility when it comes to central-bank action. the cac 40 only up .2%, and range found in the u.k. on the ftse 100. let's look at how things are playing asset by asset. the bloomberg dollar index at two year highs. s&p e-mini is pointing to gains of .2%, much of that contingent on jay powell. the u.s. 10 year currently below the 3% level, but we could get there. then the bloomberg dollar index currently range bound as well, but the strength of the greenback has been pronounced at two year highs. bond or land now saying there is a proposal to ben -- bonder lyon
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saying there is a proposal two russian oil. francine: it's an oil embargo over the next six months. if we look at sectors, overall 18 sectors. i have 10 on the upside. not huge moves, but gaining between points 01 and .6%. i'm seeing pressure for retail, technology and food and beverage. but owner very -- earnings overall, a jewelry company came up with strong earnings. those share prices are up. tom: a relatively positive picture when it comes to the earnings run. the focus is ensuring on corporate's that have the margin. ecuador one of those -- equinor one of those companies, norway's biggest producer of energy with
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a positive top line. but down 2% despite that result that beat. aston martin with a change at the top, the ceo stepping down and being replaced by the former ceo her already. -- of for are a. -- ferrari. sberbank gaining 2% despite the fact the eu president has said they will be blocked from swift. francine: let's get back to that breaking on russian sanctions. maria tadeo is in germany. it seems like phasing out oil and gas in the next six months is quite aggressive. maria: yes, we had confirmation of that new package. it is proposed and up to the member states to approve. the idea is this will be approved by the end of the week.
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you heard from the commissioner that putin has to pay a heavy price. this is an embargo with a six to eight month transition period for crude. this is a key detail, this will also include a special regime for hungary and slovakia. viktor orban had suggested he will not approve an embargo because it would be detrimental to his economy. i hear this will ensure a carveout for the hungarians. tom: that's how you deal with some of the divisions within europe then, maria. oil is the easy part in the energy complex, what about gas? maria: you could argue that. gas is a political weapon. when you look at germany. the german government meeting right behind me at this castle
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is a special retreat. they are doing perhaps soul-searching when it comes to their dependency on russia. but tom, i wouldn't undermined the significance of this move either. we know that oil is the moneymaker for vladimir putin. gas is a bigger issue for a number of countries, but oil continues to make a lot of money for the russians so this will have an impact. i'm sure the russians will put out a response today. putin had already hinted that russia will take countermeasures to unfriendly countries that target what he says is an unfair operation from the west. francine: maria tadeo there live in germany for us. let's get to the key market drivers with our editor kirsteen aquino. interesting timing proposing this phaseout by the end of the year, on fed day where we are really worried about inflation
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and interest rates. kristine: that really adds to the anxiety about overall inflation in the economy, whether that is from goods and services or the price of commodities like oil. now that we are getting these headlines, it's not necessarily creating an immediate impact on the oil price. rent is elevated, but not within the recent ranges. and still down from the highs we saw earlier this year when russia first invaded. i think for investors the big question is whether this proposal can make it through the famous eu red tape, and whether it will actually pass in its current form. or as maria was alluding to, it will have to be watered down and will need to have carveouts for various countries. tom: brent currently trading at $107, when it comes to 50 basis points will that be seen by the markets as database?
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kristine: i think that is the danger. if they deliver anything less than 50 that will be less -- quite a dovish step given that the fomc have already like that as nearly a done deal. markets are turning their sites to a potential 75 basis point hike. we got to a 50% probability in terms of rising for that over the last couple days. but of course, it really shows how much have amped up their hawkish expectations and now are expecting policymakers to deliver. francine: what i'm hearing from traders, they were saying, it's difficult as a chief executive to know what to do with prices. if you are a young trader, you haven't lived through inflation, my tip of the day, speak to a bloomberg who lived through the 80's and 90's.
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kristine: its immense pressure on other central banks for sure. we saw the rba deliver a bigger than expected rate hike yesterday. that makes sense. australia is an open small economy that really responds to what happens globally. the rba really needed to deliver that surprise to create that impact instead of markets following the global trend. it brings the pressure as well for the bank of england, meeting immediately after that that on thursday. we are seeing pricing for a 50 basis hike in september. that will be a difficult line for the bank of england to walk as the u.k. is still grappling with its worst cost-of-living isis in decades. tom: thank you for wanting us through some key market themes. joining us now is called donovan. -- paul donovan i'm not going to
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be loving him -- lumping him in with boomers -- global chief economist at ubs. we heard the former imf chief economist saying that that is good to 5%. paul: i think that's an aggressive call. we are in aggressive -- situation where we are seeing inflation come down. the question is how far and fast , not the direction of travel. the growth risks are there. we have started to get some hints of this in anecdotal data where companies are saying consumers are resisting price increases and starting to scale back their demand. that will be an area increasingly in focus this year. francine: i love our central bankers, but i hope they're not
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watching today. the problem is they are behind the curve. paul: we've got a couple of problems here. if you shut the markets, the markets will say the fed know something we don't and they are going to start -- they are going to stop pricing. that will affect things like the property market which is already reacting to the increase in mortgage rates . from there you have the furniture trade and the building trade and it dribbles out very quick. -- dribbles out very quickly. -- ripples out very quickly. francine: because? paul: nobody fills in surveys anymore. we've got increased political polarization. look at the michigan data. democrats telling us best of all possible worlds, and republicans
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telling us complete disaster. we've got data quality problems which means you can't be certain what is going on in real time. francine: when is the last time you did a survey? 1985. tom: you make excuses, i've got dinner, swimming lessons. i spent five years in china, but constant conversation was what was the actual quality of the data? quality across the board is problematic. the big story is the oil complex. in your notes, you suggested higher oil doesn't necessarily mean higher inflation, can you unpack that for us? paul: commodity prices have two effects. there is a price inflation and a growth deflation story. they've i'm spending more money putting diesel into my land rover, i've got less money to spend on the village pub.
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so demand goes down. we have had some hints in the states of the implications of this where for example in last month's consumer price inflation number, fast food prices have the biggest monthly decline in two decades. fast food has got very little to do with food prices, but as households are feeling that squeeze coming through from energy costs, they are looking to cut back elsewhere and companies are responding to it. it's not a clear-cut situation, it is both a price inflation and a growth deflation consequence. francine: if i was a pessimist, i would say people are taking advantage of this. tom: i have this image of you running to kfc which is a bit disconcerting as prices drop there. francine: frappuccinos. tom: this has been a bugbear for you.
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francine: paul donovan, stays with us, we will talk about inflationary pressures and more. we will have more on our top story throughout the show. this is bloomberg. ♪
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francine: welcome back to the open, everyone.
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15 minutes into the european trading day. bonds following, u.s. equity futures modest gains. against fluctuations in european stocks, it's all about the biggest that interest rate increase since 2000. traders across the world waiting for more clues on how aggressively they will tackle inflation. markets are kind of moving sideways. tom: there is movement in the bond market, the selloff continuing. btp yields up five basis points on the italian 10 year, and five basis points the german ten-year. as investors continue to digest a more hawkish rba. that selloff has deepened. the asset class on track to post its worst year ever. with more is dani burger. dani: i'm looking at this positioning heading into the meeting. it is real money versus fast
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money, asset managers versus hedge funds. hedge funds have been growing their short positions, part of the fuel behind the selloff. asset managers have their long position, many of them have mandates to hold something when it comes the bond market. but the spread between these two have reached the most extreme level since 2020. considering today's decision, one of these groups could get burnt. hedge funds have the discretion to act much quicker, so you could see some short covering move the market. we had the rba decision which did its part to push yields higher, so how will be global market react. we are already seeing german bund yields back above 1%, u.k. 2-year yield's just under 2%. francine: the chart of the hour, up the week, dani burger with what we could see from that that. still with this is paul donovan,
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ubs chief economist, it's great to talk about inflation. this underpins everything that happens on the markets. when writing in saying copy in london is -- owen writing in saying copy in london is three pounds across the board. you are saying this will be short-lived. paul: what we had was a phenomenal demand search. we had this stash of savings acquired during the pandemic, and certain goods go up in price dramatically. but what's happened is the savings part has been spent. we come back to a more normal pattern of savings, but with records of life. last year, there was record supply of goods, record manufacturing output and that supply is still there. so in certain goods we already seeing deflation, televisions case in point where prices are coming down. coffee prices absolutely going
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up and people remember that because it is something we buy every day. every hour in some cases. so you remember the price going up. used-car prices substantially lower than they were six weeks ago. certain consumer electronics we are seeing prices drop where we would expect them to. that's the key point. tom: what about wages, this is remarkable to me. swimming classes for my five-year-old, couldn't find any teachers. almost a pound an hour. they couldn't get the staff, what is happening with labor costs, are you seeing any wage price spiral? is it becoming sticky now? paul: the important point is wage cost price spiral, not wage price spiral.
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that is a good thing if you are paying -- if we look around the world, global output is pretty much about pre-pandemic levels in every major economy, but global employment is below pre-pandemic levels. you are people are producing or stop. -- fewer people are producing more stuff. now i'm not saying we ignore this. we monitor this very carefully, but i don't think this is a huge issue. what we're seeing is relative wage changes. some professions have suddenly become more in demand, truck drivers classic case. and you get a one-off thing is in wages coming through to attract people back into the profession, so there is some relative wage increase. francine: unilever is shifting cooking oil types because of what is happening in ukraine.
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are we going to see more inflation in europe and what does it mean for ecb? paul: inflation is the change in prices. are you saying, we are going to see oil go up 100% a year? will it be to 50 next year and $500 after, that becomes a negative influence on inflation if the answer is no. as we go through this year, the base effect start to fade. when you look at inflation, you're comparing a normal economy with a locked down economy. the changes huge. given three months, already in the u.s. and u.k., you will be comparing a normal economy to a normal economy. francine: i need to buy a tv just so i feel like i am saving money. tom: there are some counterintuitive's within the data just to give us the context.
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always excellent, thank you, paul donovan. paul: it probably will be cheaper than it was in 2000 because you have had deflation for a long period in things like consumer electronics. tom: the chief economist at ubs. we are going to get onto the corporate earnings picture. vestas is forecasting its first loss in a decade after costs related to the windmill maker's exit from russia. the 2022 profit will be in the range of zero to -5%. joining us now is the ceo of vestas. let's talk about the supply chain constraints. where within the supply chain are the pressures most acute and
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what is the timeframe as to when you expect those duties? henrik: thank you for having me on this conversation. the supply chain is becoming tight for quite some time in q1 just complicated all of that with the latest russian-ukraine conflict. that mixed with certain lockdowns in china has created ripple effects to the outside harbors and some of the logistics. i think the transport logistics right now is complicated to say the least. and at the same time, we're seeing less borders in certain raw materials and components. francine: given that we have higher natural gas prices, what
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does it mean for renewables? is that transition going to take longer or will it be accelerated? henrik: on the high-level, the energy transition has never been more imminent. what goes to politicians and business leaders, because we have to make an elective decision there to get the energy transition to move faster. we have been talking about it for a long time and that definitely has to accelerate because we need to become more independent. i think that is the outlook, but that does not change that 2022 will be a pretty tough and difficult year. but the long-term outlook for the renewable industry has never been better. tom: are you getting more
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inquiries from clients concerned about higher energy costs? and are you continuing to raise prices in the quarters ahead? henrik: when we go home tonight and check our meter at home on the electricity, we know that has become more expensive. electricity prices are at historical high prices in most parts of the world and especially in europe. most of those customers that have that output from the turbines have become incredibly more valuable. and we see that from the energy companies, our customers, the utilities and of course, that part of it is definitely coping with an increased price on the turbine. francine: right. henrik: because it will be more expensive. francine: the worst idea is to go home and check your
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electricity because it raises your blood pressure in .2 seconds. how long does it take you to build a turbine, and is it regulation, can you go any faster in putting these things online? henrik: if you called me today and asked for something, you will be able to get within three to four months anywhere in the world. today they permitting and application process in many countries takes years, and this is where i think we have to make that swift change now. if we can get that changes in the permitting, we can get the solution for it. francine: the chief executive officer of vestas. markets expect the fed to raise interest rates by basis -- 50 basis points today. traders have not lived through
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inflation, they don't know what to do with it. tom: ask the boomers. paul donovan unpacking it for us. we look ahead to that next. this is bloomberg. ♪ what's it like having xfinity internet?
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francine: welcome back to the open. 30 minutes into the european trading day. here are your top stories. when the fed says height, traders asked how high-end how fast? russia looks to annex occupied ukraine, narrowing its objectives for the invasion. the eu proposes to phase out russian oil by the end of the year, and aims to cut out sberbank and other lenders from swift. tom: the oil prices are up on the back of that decision by the
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european commission to start that gradual embargo. gas is a different question. looking at 50 basis points for the fed hike. that is the market expectation. in the focus switches to the press conference and whether jay powell leaves the door open for 75 basis points. and the $9 trillion balance sheet unwind as they start to allow some assets to roll off. marcus turned around a little in europe,'s lower by .3%. earnings in focus with many investors scrutinizing ability to pass on costs. the ftse 100 lower by .3%. the energy complex and oil higher on the back of that european commission proposal. let's switch focus to the sectors. a bit of divergence when it
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comes to sovereign bonds by the way. yields have come off when it comes to u.s. treasuries, but in europe, yields in germany and italy are up. travel and leisure gaining, media and energy also higher. brent above $107 a barrel last i looked. retail, food and beverage also down amongst the sectors in the red. across the board, a little bit of risk off 30 minutes into the session. maybe investors waiting on the sidelines for clarity when it comes to the reserve. francine: the bank of england playing on thursday. the european commissioner has proposed an orderly ban on russian oil imports. >> today we will propose to ban all russian oil from europe. [applause] this will be a complete import
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ban on all russian oil, seaborne and pipeline, crude and refined. francine: bloomberg's europe correspondent joins us now, maria, i was talking about an oil man with gas. is that not far off, and will boudin just turned around and say i am selling everything i have in terms of energy to someone else? maria: yes, francine. this is exclusively when it comes to oil. it is a light embargo. but she made it clear there is a transition period of six to eight months. there will be a special regime for hungary and slovakia potentially all the way to 2023 so they get this package to the finish line. one thing you mentioned, the europeans are essentially going from coal to oil and potentially gas. there will be a conversation about gas and whether this
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embargo could potentially go into effect. for many europeans, that would be much harder. oil transportation is easier. gas pipelines, you need the infrastructure. a country like germany are not ready for that. when you look at dependency, this continues to be a much bigger deal. oil makes money, but gas for the europeans is much harder to replace. tom: how is this going to work in practice? the phaseout of oil, and what is coming through on this list of sanctions? maria: you saw the reference to first crude, and another transition period for rent find that will take us to the end of 2022. we need that german industry had asked for this to be able to adjust. what's also interesting is this is not just a ban on russian imports of oil, it will be a ban about the services around it. this means the insurance, the
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cargo ships, european vessels won't be able to touch it. they will not be able to transport this, any brokerage or financial will also be banned. it's not just about the primary source here, but also be services around it. if completed, it would put an end to that very huge relationship europe has had for decades when it comes to russia. and a lot of money lost for the regime of vladimir putin. while this put an end to the war, that remains to be seen. when you look at the language out of the kremlin, it doesn't suggest they will stop anytime soon. if anything, vladimir putin will want to declare full war on ukraine by the time we get to victory day on may 9. francine: thank you for the great update. these sanctions will hit specific food groups. maria tadeo live from germany. johnny's now is shandra bell, -- joining us now is sharon bell.
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from goldman sachs, are we looking at a possible recession? sharon: european inflation is already high single digits. you could see some double-digit inflation numbers coming through. you mentioned headline inflation has already gone very high, and this clearly hits cost of living. i think we are pretty close to recession through this year. you talked about the dependency of germany on russian gas, if you are to see that disrupted, there would be a deep recession. we think you appointed, but it is pretty close. . tom: how do you position for that, how are you doing that? sharon: i think a lot of investors are already position that way. if you look at cyclical stocks, the classic industrials and
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consumables, etc. they have already outperformed a lot this year. and commodity as well. a lot of that positioning has taken place. i think a great hedge against higher inflation, weaker economic outcomes too, are still actually commodity sectors. they will be hit by lower demand, but these companies have great cash flows that -- so i think that is still a very good place to be. francine: what do you think the fed will do? is there a possibility that they go for 75 basis points, to give them a good signal that they mean business? sharon: we think they go 50. but clearly there was always a chance they could surprise given how much inflation has been surprising on the outside recently.
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maybe that will push them less inclined to do 75. but arguably 50. we also think they will announce the start of balance sheet reduction at this meeting. i think there will be much too here in the press conference afterwards. and about the outlook for the next few months. but our best view is 50 for this meeting. tom: at the top line, the european stocks with losses of about 8% year-to-date, but with the 100 has been better -- the ftse 100 has done better if you carve that one out. what do you think about the broader index through the rest of this year, are we starting to bottom out across the benchmark? sharon: there has been some pain. the broad index down i think 8-9% in euro terms. if you are a dollar investor, you are down 20% because the
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dollar is so much stronger. there has been a paramount of pain in the index level. we are on the brink of recession in many ways. interest rates are going up, all that is being applied to the market. but i think the market is now discounting a week growth scenario. if that russia gas is cut off, the market would have further to fall. but i would see markets rising modestly from here on the back of some earnings growth over the next couple years, weaker euro helping earnings, and valuations versus other assets still. francine: i'm a little obsessed with this idea that you have to ration with certain sectors being shut down. i was reading about a perfume bottle maker that would have to be shut down because it is not essential if there is an oil and gas embargo. do you sell those sectors that
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could be hit first? sharon: it's a tricky one. that's not our core view. investors are not interested in core, average scenarios. a shutdown would be a big tail risk. more manufacturing sectors would be hit by that. and again, maybe if you want to go a bit more cyclical, picking out commodity stocks that are not dependent on manufacturing in europe, or more cyclical sectors which are defensive against that. and if you want to look at more defensive sectors that would be more stable in the outcomes like health care, it's already performed well this year. and not super dependent on those things like manufacturing processes in europe. tom: when it comes to the china question, the drive from that economy -- drag from that economy, would you recommend reducing exposure for european
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luxury and autos where there is that big trade? sharon: we are generally underweight most of the consumer space. not really because of china, but because we think european consumer will be hit by high inflation. but some of those companies also have a lot of exposure to china, too. and china is pretty weak this year, we are below consensus growth, there is possibly more downside risk to gdp given the lockdowns. of course, the market knows this. you've already seen some of these stocks trading down. but in the near they remain at risk. tom: look to defensive's, the energy sector has more potential upside. sharon bell senior portfolio strategist at goldman sachs, thank you for your time. coming up, chipper on chips,
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volkswagen expects the semiconductor squeeze to ease in the second half of the year. this is bloomberg. ♪
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francine: welcome back to the open. 44 minutes into the european trading day. the stoxx 600 down .4%. investors brace for the biggest
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fed move since 2000. they are trying to get more clues on how hawkish they will be. markets are in wait-and-see mode. let's get to the first word news. laura: the u.s. vice president has accused republicans of attacking women's rights following news that the supreme court is poised to strike down roe v. wade. harris argued that a court decision would open the door to stripping away other rights including same-sex marriage. residents of beijing are being urged not to leave the city unnecessarily as the chinese capital ramps up covid restrictions. schools are to be suspended for in-person classes for the next week. in shanghai, the city's exit from a punishing five-week lockdown is being delayed as infections continue to be appearing outside the strict quarantine system. a survey suggests pay for night
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to kingdom financial services workers has doubled since the pandemic began. the wages were 31% higher in february been at the end of 2019, compared with a gain of 14% across the economy. global news, 24 hours a day, on air, and on bloomberg quicktake. powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg, tom, francine. tom: volkswagen has maintained its outlook for the year. higher prices and demand for cars have helped counter the supply chain crunch. the german carmaker reiterating that its projections are at risk from the fallout from the war in ukraine. ceo herbert diess spoke to bloomberg earlier. >> the overall situation with covid in china, the war in ukraine, semiconductors in short
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supply, this is a challenging environment. i'm happy we could show resilience in the first quarter. we hope that the situation in china will improve over time. semiconductors should improve so we have good predictions for that. so i think that we should be able to show some more resilience. >> what makes you so confident about the development in china? china imposes some very harsh lockdowns to fight the covid infection waves. there are concerns about the broader economic cooling, are you going to be able to offset that or are there potential risks? >> you are right. china is still very unpredictable. what's going to happen there. but all our plans are working at low volume. it seems to be that we have gradual improvement we hope at and of may the situation should become better there.
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what makes us relatively confident if the economy cools down, we have very good order books, still or ever intake is high. electric cars are doing extremely well. we could double against last year. in china it is four times more than the year before. our worldwide footprint is working, so we can shift semiconductors to where we ever have supply chains, the market demands are still high. so i'm not too pessimistic about the year. >> when we look at your european operations, you have multiple factors across the entire continent, what is the biggest potential risk from an operational point of view? the potential for the bunc --
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potential shortage of parts, or the risk that russia could cut off gas price -- gas supplies? >> the war in ukraine is what i am most concerned because of its long-term effects. it has a severe effect on raw material prices, energy costs. and it might impact europe, and especially germany quite severely if we are not able to stop that. what's also concerning for me is once again we see that the world falls apart into blocs trying to close down even further which is a big concern to me. prosperity and development in the world is really depending on the worldwide trade and open markets. for the mid and long term that's my biggest concern. francine: that was the volkswagen chief executive officer. the vw cfo has said it is still
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pursuing the ipo of carmaker porsche. volkswagen down .1%. tom: the eu is proposing sanctions. we have more on the fallout for energy markets. stay with us. this is bloomberg. ♪
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tom: welcome back to the open. we are 52 minutes into the european trading day. it is fed day of course. the markets expecting 50 basis points. will the fed chair leave the door open 275 basis points? -- to 75 basis points. every index in the red in europe but only marginally. brent of course higher. data you are seeing a move higher in yields particularly in italian btp's and the german bund as well, up five basis points. francine: the european commissioner has proposed sanctions as a result of the invasion of ukraine. she announced that sberbank and two other banks would be removed from the script payment system. then she announced an orderly ban on russian oil payments,
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sending crude prices higher in london and new york. with us now is will kennedy, usually the bearer of bad news, our executive editor for energy and commodities. we don't know if it is orderly, because we don't know how putin reacts to this. >> i think the orderly bit comes from the idea that this will take time. it will take six months or so to stop importing russian oil. they have given themselves to the end of the year to stop importing russian field. so people have time to adjust and prepare, to make new trading relationships and think about how the logistics are going to work. but as you said, it's a massive change to the global energy market and the way that oil flows around the world. tom: doesn't just get redirected somewhere else question mark the indians are looking the lips, there going to be getting cheaper oil? >> we have seen india step in to
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become a massive fire of russian oil. they have bought more this year than the whole of last year. equally we see from other places we imported a record amount of u.s. oil last month. we are seeing more middle eastern crude come in. we are seeing that reordering of russian crude. but the logistics will be very hard. i think the expectations are that russia will not be able to sell, and it will have an impact on russian food production. the question for russia is how bad the impact will be on it's on production. francine: how much do they care about this? it feels like they're trying to shut down the russian economy, but they also want to shut down from the west in many ways. could that be the game plan for russia?
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>> table have to be. but it is a huge issue. the supply of hydrocarbons to europe has been a huge part of the russian economy for decades. we are still lying on the russian gas, russian oil is a huge change for this economy and the russian economy. it will have a big impact on both sides. what may come into focus is to go back to the point tom made, if other people are just going to buy this, will you have to look at secondary sanctions. will you have to think about sanctions against india and other buyers. this is a pretty momentous path we are walking down. tom: brent currently trading up 2%, the market is reacting to this. we are unpacking the complexities of this decision by the eu commissioners. francine: i'm pretty shocked, the market is ignoring this.
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at some point we hope they wake up and look at these possibilities. tom: plenty more coming up. we will keep across the markets on this big day for the fed. you are seeing losses of .2% across the european space, gains in future stateside. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> the war in ukraine is what i'm most concerned because of its long-term effect. >> it is affecting the gas market in europe. what we have done over the last nine months is looking for every well to increase the production. >> today we will propose to ban all russian oil from europe. >> this is bloomberg surveillance: early edition with francine lacqua. printing: welcome to bloom

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