tv Bloomberg Surveillance Bloomberg May 10, 2022 8:00am-9:01am EDT
>> we have a perfect storm of weakening global growth. >> don't panic as you see this sea of red. >> i don't think this is time you can go hand over fist in the bond market. >> we have not yet been convinced that we are going to see outright recession. >> markets have been may be too aggressive in the short-term and not thinking too much about what happens next year as well. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning, everyone. on radio, on television, even
full-day before and inflation report. the president will report in the 11:00 hour this morning. jonathan: 11:30 eastern time, trying to push back fears about inflation and ultimately push forward their idea they can do some thing about it. for this market, nothing else matters. cpi tomorrow. tom: what is important is the new pervasive view after talking with javier bloss about how it is spreading -- javier blas about how it is spreading throughout the system. jonathan: that is what is interesting about what we saw yesterday. treasuries advanced, yields dropped. we talked about upside risk to inflation. yesterday much more about downside risk to growth because of what has been developing this inflation. that is a new development for this market, with energy equities struggling instead of rallying. yield moving lower instead of climbing. tom: underscored by john williams in comments moments ago, john williams, president of
the new york fed, makes very clear he's got a 2% growth rate, and this inflation comes down, but he's got a three year horizon. jonathan: he's got the wrong year, hasn't it? it is 20 hunting for -- it is 2024, and the likes of citi think this will stick with us for longer. they also believe that endpoint is going to be higher than many people believe. tom:tom: let's go narrow here, value add with lisa abramowicz. to your wheelhouse away from full faith and credit, what did mere mortals in the bomber could say? -- in the bond market say? lisa: they were starting to move away from riskier credit any more significant way based on the price action. kathy jones was spot on when she was talking about the fear right now amongst so many credit investors, which is that this next phase of rate hiking is going to lead to the growth scare's, is going to lead to more of a problem with credit which is often a canary for the rest of the risk complex. tom: the imagery of a busy day
for all of us in economics, finance, investment. the international relations recovering. mr. draghi, mr. biden in some form of meetings here, and they have to focus on mr. putin. jonathan: i wonder who's got the harder job right now. would mario draghi rather be the ecb president? i think that ecb job is much harder now. much harder than it was when he was there. when he was there it was just one move. let's seize. let's let's ease -- let's ease. this year, i have no idea what you are faced with. tom: thank you prince charles, and for the queen this morning which one to 3.31 on sterling. to all of the interviews we have, if we crack one of five on nero -- crack 105 on a euro, wow. still 33.48 on the vix. jonathan: 10 year yield breaking
3% earlier this morning. we broke through 20% in yesterday's session and yields raced lower. that is interesting. at the front end, same kind move. olds lower, not higher. you've got to pay attention to that. something happening here in the last day or so that has not happened in the last few months. yields are coming back down. again, i just want to repeat, this is not some kind of judgment about what i think is going to happen in the future. it is just an observation about some thing happening now. it is notable. tom: it is. we will have to see how it unfolds. we will hinge everything on a study of inflation tomorrow. lisa shalett is with morgan stanley wealth management. she hinges everything on having a plan and then heaven per bid -- heaven forbid, staying with the plan in times of stress. what is the plan, and how do you have the courage to stay with it now? lisa s: i actually think, as radical as the last week has been and volatile as the last
week has been, there's an element of it that is somewhat predictable. what i mean by that is that the market has finally gotten to the point where it has digested the level and degree to which the fed is going to be hawkish, but they had not yet really fast forwarded that to what are the probabilities that the fed can really execute a soft landing. so we know from history in the post-world war ii period, the fed has tightened roughly 14 times. 11 of those episodes have resulted in a recession, and only three times have we pulled off a soft landing. this is a fed, and jerome powell admitted this, that is operating against a backdrop where there is an extraordinary degree of difficulty. not only is the macro environment, but they geopolitical environment is complex. the fed itself is trying to do
something that they have never done before, which is simultaneously raise rates and reduce the size of the balance sheet. to me, yesterday was very much something to be expected, that eventually we were going to get a growth scare where everyone starts worrying about the fact that we might in fact have a hard landing. while we continue to be in the camp that says we don't see an eminent recession, the reality is that growth may slow much faster than folks believe, so it is notable to your and jonathan's point that finally the bond market is getting on the bandwagon, meaning starting to worry less about upward moves in inflation and potentially beginning to think about downward moves in inflation, which are a reflection of weaker growth. jonathan: two-part question.
it sounds like you expect more downside in equity prices, but the second part, if we had that downside selloff, does he carry come of the nature of the selloff change? lisa s: i think that it does because we start to get a lot more defensive. it is why bonds are finally getting a bid here, so i think that defensive trade that unwound the long-duration stable growth stock trade that was really unwinding fiercely last week starts to get a bid. it is what do i want to own if the economy is genuinely slowing. lisa a: so you are basically saying big tech is a bright spot for the next couple of months. lisa s: i want to be really careful because i don't know that i think big tech in all caps is, but i think long-duration assets actively
selected are the place to be. so we have begun to add duration. we started that about three or four weeks ago. albeit it was early, and many of our clients who began to head back into bonds have not had a great three or four weeks, but we do think that trade may begin to work, and some of the higher quality growth oriented names are certainly worth looking at today and buying, and that is what we are advising our clients to do. lisa a: some people have talked about the unwind of certain nonprofitable tech companies and others as the bursting of a bubble. i take a look at peloton this morning. the shares were down 92% from the peak even before going into today. the shares getting massacred right now in premarket trading after they reported their earnings. is peloton a one-off, or is this something that is endemic, that has not been fully beaten out of the system?
lisa s: i think we are starting to get there. on the stock side of things, i think we certainly have. what is interesting is among the other profitable tech companies, the stocks may actually have led in the credit market needs to catch up and blow some of these ccc and junk spreads out even further. but from a stoxx perspective, you are -- a stock perspective, you are probably getting to the point where there's enough pain in the streets where these valuations start to look a little bit better. the key issue, however, is to recognize that companies and investors are now looking at cost of capital. that means to what extent has cost of debt go not -- debt gone up and cost of equity gone up, and both have gone up in this rising rate environment and the
policy pivot. jonathan: lisa shalett, awesome as always. thank you. that point at the end there, equity led and the pain in credit, is still to come -- the pain in credit is still to come, what do you make of that? lisa a: basically, credit has been much more immune than usual because of how much companies locked in debt for a very long time. they had silence ballot -- they had solid balance sheets. there's a prolonged pain in the bond market that will not be seen until years from now when they have to finance the cost of capital. you are not getting the same reaction function air. i think it is fascinating. have we lost some of the indicative tools of how we gain what is going to come next in the next part of the cycle? jonathan: here's point two of that conversation. it is an observation. david stubbs of jp morgan saying by the bond move, and lisa shalett turning around and
saying that is a religion of the growth difficulties still do come. as you get that change and it develops even further, the nature of save -- of selloff in the equity market, that changes too. tom: this is about your belief construct. the call it a set up. you have a set up as a belief of educating -- of executing a trade. but the real issue is you have to have a belief system of which to invest in. that is really what is being asked in here. jonathan: i think we've been tested more than once. you get comfortable with an idea, and then this market punches you in the face. yields lower by three basis points on the 10 year. futures positive 0.9%. i wasn't talking about maria. [laughter] she did the same thing, i'm sure. this is bloomberg. ritika: keeping you up to date with news from around the world, with the first word, i'm ritika gupta. president biden will highlight
efforts to stem inflation today at a time when soaring prices certain democrats -- threatened democrats' slim chances of holding onto congress. in the u.k., prime minister boris johnson vowing to ramp up pressure on what he caused vladimir putin's cronies by driving dirty money out of the country. johnson set an agenda that is also heavy on electoral priorities, including cutting waiting lists at plandemic it -- at pandemic hit hospitals. prince charles standing in for the queen, said to have mobility issues. british airways overhauling my lindeman -- overhauling management. it has put new executives in charge of operation technology and customer services. the airline has been forced to
cancel 10% of its flight schedules between march and october because of staff shortages. a big transaction and the drug industry. pfizer has agreed to buy bio haven pharmaceuticals for $11.6 billion in cash to gain an approved treatment for migraine headaches. meanwhile, bio haven shareholders will get half of a share of the new bio haven, which will retain some of the compounds in developing. it is the most extensive american artwork ever to sell at auction get on monday night, a silkscreen of marilyn monroe by andy warhol sold in new york for $195 million. the winning bidder was art dealer larry gekko. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪
try to get that under control. i think if you look at what we have done so far in the last two meetings, we have really started that process. jonathan: that was raphael bostic, the atlanta fed president, sitting down with bloomberg's mike mckee. . we will hear from bargain, waller, kashkari today. the s&p advancing 0.9%, the nasdaq up to 1.6% -- up 1.6%. julian emmanuel writes in, friend of the show. the 10 year yield backing off 20 basis points in the last 24 hours. thank you, julian. tom: it is a to mulch was time, to say the least -- it is a to mull to us -- a to mulch was -- a tumultuous time, to say the
least. joining us is cecilia rouse, chair of the u.s. council of economic advisors. did you have the feldstein version? cecilia: i'm dating myself, i had the auto x -- the auto eckstein. tom: otto eckstein would say parse the data. what part of it is the focus of the president this morning? cecilia: the president is focused on the whole of it because he understands the cost of food and gas and the price of everyday items for the american family. he comes from a family where that would be meaningful if you had to pay more for a tank of gas, so he's focused on all of
it. today he is going to lay out his plan for addressing price increases. of course, his economic advisor, i am focused on the part about core inflation which is not focused on gas and food. that tells us more about what the federal reserve can control as it tries to address inflation, and also the parts that are more enduring and that are more challenging to address. the president is focused on the whole of it because that is the reality for american families. jonathan: the whole of it is polished -- tom: the whole of it is politicians have to come up with a plan. what is the plan? cecilia: from day one, this president has been focused on generating an economy where there is sustainable growth that works for all americans. as he likes to say, he wants to build it from the bottom up and the middle out. that is what underlies the american rescue plan. it was import to get shots into arms and for houses and businesses to have resources to get through the pandemic.
now he is focused on inflation, so he understands that we need to address gas prices. much of the gas price increases a late have been because of the war, russia's war against ukraine. the president, and trying to ease those prices, has released historic levels from our strategic petroleum reserve in concert with other countries so that to date, there have been about 240 million barrels released worldwide. in addition, he is urging gas and oil companies to increase their production domestically by using existing leases and increase their drilling so that we can get more oil on the market. but he also is focused on reducing long-term costs for families. that is through, for example, reducing prescription costs, by allowing medicare to negotiate prices, by addressing childcare costs, by addressing the cost of housing. these are policies at we know will help increase our economic growth, and sure that it is more broadly shared, and in the process, reduce the costs for families. but he wants to do so in a
deficit reducing way. his budget last year, he reduced the deficit by $300 billion, on track to reduce it by $1.5 trillion this year, and he does so by increasing taxes on our very wealthiest. lisa: with retrospect, with hindsight being our, was it a mistake in march of 2020 12 issue $1400 checks to every american who qualified? cecilia: it is so hard to go back and do retrospective because it is hard to imagine the counterfactual. zandi has tried -- mark zandi has tried to do so, and looking at the pandemic policies, has estimated that had we not acted, this goes back to cares as well, including the american rescue plan, we may well have faced a double-dip recession in 2021. we would be facing elevated unemployment today and we would not have had the economic growth that we had last year, which is what put us on a pass for more sustainable growth going forward.
so the american rescue plan was an insurance policy. we did not know how long this pandemic was going to remain a challenge. we need to get shots into arms so we could retain our lives -- we needed to get shots into arms so we could regain our lives. it is a consequence of helping families and businesses get through the pandemic when we were facing supply chains which could not quite handle that sustained demand. lisa: how much does inflation have to come down before the end of the year for this growth that we are seeing to be sustained, for that not to really curtail some of the momentum we are seeing in households? cecilia: what is important is that we maintain our economic activity, and we don't want the inflation to become spiraling out of control, and for individual households to become underwater. so we need the federal reserve's mandate, price stability and full employment. it is your header, jay powell, emphasizing how the federal reserve is on it. that is what they are focused on
as well. the president would urge congress to confirm his nominees so that the federal reserve board has all hands on deck to fulfill their dual mandate. that is what is going to be most important. we see that inflation expect patients are anchored, so we are optimistic that the federal reserve can do its job. meanwhile, the president is also focused on doing what he can to ease the pain at the pump and ensure that families can pay a reasonable price for gas. he's focused on food prices and addressing those costs that families face every day on that are so important for them. jonathan: cecelia, thank you, chair of the white house counsel of economic advisers. we know what the president is focused on. now we need to see the plan of the policies, and today could be an important step. tom: what i did not get to talk to dr. rouse about, and she is truly one of our best out of princeton, is this is the economic realities we hear in
every interview buttressed up against the political realities. she mentioned otto eckstein, who we tragically lost at a very young age to cancer. i remember that when i was in hospital -- in high school or maybe a bit on from there. it was at a time of 5% inflation, and it was one of the reasons it brought down lbj. this president has the same pressure at 8% inflation. what do you do without slamming the country into a recession? that is the heart of the matter. jonathan: we don't know what the counterfactual is, but we know there were several warnings. larry summers warned at the time, mohamed el-erian came out last summer in said wind down qe , and this fed ignored it all. tom: they get a victory lap right now, particularly professors summers, but the issue is politically, how do you do this? the economic mumbo-jumbo only gets you so far. how do you do this politically
jonathan: this time tomorrow we will be seconds away from a really important inflation print. that is now 24 hours away. from new york city this morning, good morning. futures up 1% on the s&p. and the nasdaq 100 we are positive 1.6%. yields are lower by five basis points this time on the 10 year to 2.9849%. tom: the yield dynamics, to me it is a fluttery thing. every time i look at the screen, the red and green mix of the yield market is a different story. i really don't know what that signals for today. maybe it is wait for tomorrow. jonathan: the only thing i can say about the move in yields is that every time we have brought up the story around it, they move the other day, and quickly. yesterday morning, 3.1% today --
3.20%. today a break of 3%. tom: lisa mentioned the core cpi tomorrow. i think that is on the couple. jonathan: the month on month figure -- that is unacceptable. jonathan: the month on month figure is going to be critical. tom: and the makeup of it as well. right now we do go global, and it is wonderful to have with us again, from citigroup, nathan sheets, global chief economist and former undersecretary of the treasury for international affairs, was public service at the federal reserve system as well. wonderful to have you with us. i want to go to stanley fisher, who you had an acquaintance with at m.i.t. a number of years ago. suddenly, the u.s. central bank head is central banker to the world. how close is jerome powell to being central banker to the world? nathan: that is certainly true during times of stress, when global markets are under duress
and under pressure. they need dollars. several indications over the last few years, the fed has stepped up and provided that. but similarly in an episode like we are in right now come over central banks are struggling with is truly extraordinary set of shocks, and at inflation environment unlike anything we have seen in decades, the fed is pretty much setting the tone. as the fed has shifted more hawkish, that opened the way for a lot of central banks to be more hawkish as well. tom: one of the stresses back to 2006, we have a week singapore dollar which is usually a crown jewel of tiger economies. tell us what those economies do after the easy decision to defend by raising rates. nathan: the fed is moving, and
as the fed moves in the u.s. economy is under pressure, still it is better than the rest of the world. you are seeing the dollar strengthened. there's been a debate about how much traction the fed is getting in financial protection, but make no mistake it is getting traction on the dollar, and that has echoes throughout the rest of the world. u.s. stronger currency is helpful for us in fighting inflation, but the weaker currencies who are on the other shy to that are inflationary in those countries and making the challenge for those central banks even more acute. in addition, for many emerging market economies, it creates tensions in their balance sheets given their exposures to dollars. so it does create, as you suggest, some dilemmas for these central banks and may force them into further rate hikes at times
when they don't want to hike rates. lisa: here in the united states in about 24 hours, we are going to get that cpi print, expected to come in at 8.1%, down from 8.5% in the prior read. how important is it to look at the components of what is driving this inflation? what is your projection for how we can understand the granularity of this report? nathan: i think that looking under the hood is going to be critical. we are expecting a 0.4% month-to-month read for core, somewhat lower for headline. but when i look at underlying components, i just have a hard time being too optimistic about the inflation outlook. i think in this environment with high commodity prices, supply chain pressures, potential further disruptions as we are told of what is happening in china to supply chains, it is
not a positive environment for goods prices. there's a lot of inertia in shelter and motor equivalent rents -- and owner equivalent rents. that is not looking like a positive picture. for services, you've got a red-hot labor market and wages may not have risen quite as much as headline cpi. it looks to me like pressures on services prices is likely to be pretty durable as well. so i think those components right now are just not very encouraging, and telltale of longer lived inflation. lisa: so do you think we have seen the peak? nathan: maybe in some arithmetic since, yes. is this the peak for twelve-month headline inflation or even twelve-month core inflation? possibly. is it likely to be on a bit of a downward trajectory, and one that at the end of this year,
our expectation of the measure of core prices, be they pce or cpi, is still likely to have a handle well above federal reserve targets? it is really more like my colleagues have said, more like a plateau. tom: how much control -- lisa: how much control does the fed really have over this invoice neri impulse, if some of it -- if so much of it is coming in addition to what we are seeing in china, to what we are seeing with the oil markets? how much control can the fed really have? nathan: this is the critical question. paul volcker taught us in the 1980's that if the fed is aggressive enough, it can move that demand curve sufficiently to tame inflation, but that is a very painful process, and i think ultimately to get out of this without a recession, the
fed is going to need some help from the outside world. we are going to need to see supply chains improve and commodity prices come down. tom: tom: the common feature -- tom: the common feature of citigroup economics is respect for the data. do you take comfort in imf or wto mobile gdb guesses now, or is it an impossible task -- or wto global gdp guesses now, or is it an impossible task? nathan: we have a tendency to try to forecast landings where inflation eases down, growth slows some, and we avoid recession. the reality is the other outcomes are just so messy, it is hard to figure out what they look like on paper. so we write down these soft landing scenarios, and there is
a plausible path to a soft landing, but right now the inflation risk, even the stagflation risk is quite appreciable, and those kinds of forecasts don't help me sleep a whole lot better. tom: are we at any point were returned to a nominal analysis from a real analysis? are things so out of whack we would literally go back pre-arthur burns? nathan: as inflation surges, we have to start thinking about the nominal's as well as the reals. to be clear, i think at the end of the day, how does the fed contraction, and the fed has to get traction -- how does the fed get traction? and i think the fed has to get traction getting reals. how much are they going to have to push interest rates positive in real terms to get traction on this thing? in their sep from a couple
months ago, they said just a little bit positive. that is not clear to me at all, that we need a substantially positive real rate. so some stage in going on is going to be critical for the fed to be more real. jonathan: nathan sheets of citi. that is how divided things are, that you've got a group of individuals who think perhaps it got to go above 2%, to 15%, get restrictive. others doubting whether they can even get to 2% based on what is happening right now. lisa: how much do we have to depend on events that are well outside of fed's control? that is what nathan was talking about that really factors into this belief. people who think the fed is not going to get that far off so think growth is going to slow down enough and you were going to see some relief in some of these inflationary components. others say there is just too much moment, under the hood. jonathan: an awesome lineup for you in the next hour on bloomberg tv. troy gayeski of fs investments
is going to be joining us. dan ives of wedbush as well, and julie beale of kayne anderson resnick. a lot to break down. tom: i am particularly focused on dan ives, on his reaffirmation of tech resiliency here. as david stubbs said, if you are looking out a three year, five year view, that is complete you different than trying to game the fed to july 27. jonathan: we have been looking at the carnage year to date, down 25% on the nasdaq 100. what a move. lisa: has this basically been capitulation? i was looking at some forecasts, including from peter oppenheimer, who said it is time to come in and start buying. how many other people like david stubbs are saying maybe in the short-term, but over the longer term, how much do those growth concerns start to rear their heads as we head towards the end of the year? jonathan: what is interesting is
it was bonds. the 10 year down another step in basis points right now -- another seven basis points right now. lisa: which catches my attention because people are looking at the reaction function as a haven which is not served for the bulk of this year. jonathan: we will be with you together tomorrow to go through the inflation print. for our audience worldwide, equity futures bounce by more than 1% on the s&p. on that asset 100, almost 2%. yields are lower, not higher. bonds are stronger. they are doing ok. we are down seven basis points. 2.9653% right now. heard on radio, seen on tv, for our audience worldwide, this is "bloomberg surveillance." ritika: keeping you up to date with news from around the world, with the first word, i'm ritika gupta. sanctions on russian oil will be high on the agenda today when italy's prime minister mario draghi meets with resident biden at the white house.
draghi resolutely back sanctions despite his country's reliance on russian energy. he has also backed sending heavy weapons to ukraine even though large parts of his ruling coalition object. insulin, the parliament defense committee has concluded the country should join nato. fenlon started on the path to joining the alliance after its neighbor russia invaded ukraine. three out of four finns now support joining nato. in the philippines, ferdinand marcos junior has brought his family back to power 36 years after his dictator father fled the country, with almost all of the returns in the presidential race counted. marcos won about 59% of the vote. his running mate is the daughter of outgoing president rodrigo duterte. china is tightening pandemic restrictions and shanghai and expanding a mass testing sweep in beijing. as people are being shipped off to government run isolation centers under a new definition of what it means to be a close
contact. the country reported a little more than 3400 infections monday, the lowest daily total since march 16. shares of peloton plunging. the fitness company cut its revenue guidance and signed a deal with jp morgan chase to borrow five year term debt. the results suggest peloton's comeback effort is still a long way from taking hold. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪
become underwater, so what we need, the federal reserve mandate is price stability and full employment. meanwhile, the president is also focused on doing what he can to ease the pain at the pump. tom: cecilia rouse, chair of the white house counsel of economic advisors, talking the line of the president towards a very important speech this morning in the 11:00 hour. bloomberg will give you full coverage of that speech on radio and on television as well. cecilia rouse study in years ago the difference between solvency and liquidity. here with a touch on the quiddity, critic up to -- on liquidity, kriti gupta. kriti: they are not saying it is fundamentals, but it is technicals really driven by low liquidity. you can see that when you compare this to volatility. that is me to my chart of the day, volume going back a year. you start to see this uptrend. as volatility increases, volume does, too. that is no surprise. but compare this to win --
two when you did see a vix over 30. volume turnover was much higher, so that really speaks to this idea that the liquidity just isn't there. people are not getting the margins that they really want for this trade, and what it is doing is driving this major selloff, today being the exception as we see a bit of a technical bounce. tom: thanks so much. lisa abramowicz and tom keene look among all of you on radio and television -- and tom keene welcoming all of you on radio and television. right now, barry rid hopes -- barry rid hopes -- barry ritholtz. the clients of wealth management walk in the room and you need to display a self-confidence. how do you form a self-confidence now that gets you, your clients come our viewers, our listeners to 2023? barry: well, we cheat. we don't start discussing long-term investing in
volatility and drawdowns now, when we are in the midst of a pretty substantial -- we let clients know this is a feature, not a bug of volatility. we repeat it over and over again in 2021. no more than a 5% drawdown on this volatility is the aberration. it is unusual. high volatility is the norm. regular 14%, 15% corrections is average. 13 .6% going back to 1950 is average. so enjoy 2021, but expect more volatility in the future. i'm fond of saying the time to read that card in the seat act is not when the engine falls off the wing at 30,000 feet, but when you are sitting on the tarmac waiting for the chance to leave for jfk. tom: one of my great mentors
john templeton, who was very kind to me at a young age, had a wonderful phrase in that tennessee accent. tom, shares are on sale. why do we have trouble buying when templeton sees shares on sale? barry: well, it is not like we are going to the supermarket and buying milk and eggs, and when we consume them they are gone and we are not happy when prices are higher the next trip to the supermarket. when we won stocks -- when we own stocks and buy more stocks, anything you've bought over the last eight months is probably below what you've paid for it, so people have a very hard time. this is a temporal challenge. people have an incredibly difficult time picturing the world 10, 20 years from now, which is what 90% of our clients come our individual investors, 10% are institutions, and even
those institutions are things like foundations and endowments, so they have a really long time perspective. it is very challenging to think about 2032 or 2042 when thursday was such a disaster. that is the challenge for investors, to pull themselves out of the moment and project forward. lisa: i'm glad you talked about the time horizon. it is one thing if you've got 20 years. it is another if you've got three or five or six years. you say it is sort of the same thing that we have always seen, that volatility is a feature, not a bug. is this time, however, unique for the fed withdrawing stimulus, actually tightening policy the same time central bank's around the world are doing the same and moving away from unprecedented policies at a time of such economic uncertainty? barry: i would not say unique, but i would say rare. the last time we saw a year where both the s&p 500 and the bond index were down double
digits was 1980, 1981, 40 years ago. most of the traders out there don't really know what a rate hiking environment is like and are totally unfamiliar with inflation. this is before most of them were born. forget before they have been on trading desks. so it looks like this is unique and never happened before. you go to the history books, to the charts and the data, and it tells you this has happened before. it is not a coincidence that looking back to 1982, 1981, that was not the worst time to be in equities or bonds. what is different today is all the fiscal stimulus we see coursing through the system and the fact that we are starting from zero and reopening from a pandemic closure. some things are similar, some things are wildly disparate. tom: thanks very much. greatly appreciate it to morning.
lisa, but a jumble. i guess it is a day of a bounce, but we are waiting for the next news item to fall. lisa: honestly, i think what we are seeing is the bond market actually getting a floor. we are seeing that bid into bonds, particularly at the longer-term. this to me is the most notable action in the market. jon was talking about it. we have all been talking about it this morning. even as stocks sold off yesterday, you saw bonds move in the other direction. are people starting to see value in ration -- in duration? we've heard it from analysts, but we are starting to see it in the market. how much does that change the narrative to a growth market instead of a rates care? -- a rate scare? tom: we will see what that is. we need to reaffirm the guys really looking for a wide set of rate increases forward. lisa: i'm still thinking about what david stubbs of jp morgan
said, that the cpi print tomorrow could really change the narrative. if it is soft, how much could that cause a re-rating in the market in terms of growth scare's in the fed not having to do as much, versus it coming in hot, showing that momentum we were hearing from nathan sheets of citi, saying they are going to have to go farther, and even if they stay with 50 basis point rate hikes -- excuse me, i will get my words out, for consecutive meetings, that it is going to be a lot of meetings in a row that they will have to do it. tom: we should point out that mr. hollenhurst works for mr. sheets at citi. draghi is an italian, full faith in distressed credit, that has seen the spread wide and out as well. what is general credit doing better than corporate credit? lisa: we are continuing to see
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it stick? the countdown to the open starts right now. >> everything you need to get set for the start of u.s. trading, since bloomberg the open with jonathan ferro. ♪ jonathan: live from new york, we begin with the big issue. volatility. >> we are seeing extreme volatility. >> these are incredible levels. >> the draw down every time investors get worried. >> valuations are down a lot. >> there is great uncertainty about the near trajectory. >> a lot of shifts in the macro backdrop. >> as the fed is tight, volatility is going up. >> investors are looking for this. >> people want to