tv Bloomberg Markets Americas Bloomberg May 19, 2022 10:00am-11:00am EDT
we look for the safe haven. finding that bottom stop. recession. growth scare. or rebound. where does the stock drop start -- stop? consumer debt is rising, we get the latest read on the housing market with president of markers construction group. from new york, i am alix steel, welcome to bloomberg markets. i'm looking at the bear market for the s&p. that number, 3837. we are all from that. guy: i am setting myself up for a tongue twister. where does the stock drops stop? it is something i'm going to get all of my guests to say today, going to have fun with that. the month on month, -2.4.
negative -- third negative month in aim row. the economists were looking for -2.3. we are worse than expected, revisions are worse than expected. alex, it has gone from the twos to the fives. that is going to have an impact. the fed is going to be paying attention. alix: what is the wealth effect from that to keep people from buying stuff or not? what does that mean for the equity market? that leads to the question of the day. where does the stock drops stop? technical research at renesas -- renaissance macro. look at the s&p and tell me where it ins. >> i think the trend work that we do shows we are in a downtrend. it is hard to bump the bear market. i know there is a 20%
qualification for that. most of the characteristics we look at have suggested we have been in the bear market for about six weeks. we are going to continue to see that. one of the things that is important is seeing the market discount this peak inflation idea, getting through peak inflation. if you look at the performance of energy, the performance of yields up until a week ago, we were not there yet. i think that is going to continue. we think the market trades somewhere between 3500 to 3600 as a minimum to get us into that zone. the good news is, you started to get into a situation where there is nowhere to run, nowhere to hide. they took out apple last week. they took out some of these staple names this week. walmart, a safe haven name, who doesn't go to walmart, regardless of the economic conditions? once you start doing that and getting into the -- these bear
markets historically, that is good news we can point to today. guy: what are you seeing in a 10 year? jeff: the 10 year is interesting. it is too early to make a call. historically, as we get into peak inflation, bond yields decline, generally a month prior to those peaks in inflation, going back to the 1950's. we get a cpi print, what happened to bond yields? they went down. walmart, what happened to bond yields? they went down. the further into the curve, the 10 year is starting to tell us, the fed is committed to squelching out inflation. that is good news for the longer end of the curve. that is an important thing to watch and monitor. one of the contrarian calls would be that bond yields go down. i am not talking down to 50 basis points, but maybe some
investment thesis in the long bonds between now and the remainder of the year. alix: what we have seen through the top end yields, it begs the question, what do you do with growth? i mentioned the nasdaq 100 is up by almost .5%. what does that mean for the growth stuff, tech, bit coin? jeff: there is some aspects of tech that are going to be done. we have labeled those concepts as fargo is 18 months ago. bitcoin is a great example, it gets tricky because it is money. we get into the definitions of money. that is a full segment. i think you've got these french equities we are -- that are driven by negative, real rates. we are not talking real rates going 100 basis points, what we have to keep in mind, growth and rates do not have as strong a
relationship historically as what we have seen over the last two years. there is some normalization, and unfortunately, for growth investors, i do not think that normalization is going to give you the type of nitrous oxide or jet fuel to propel these names, like they were. value tends to do well in a postpeak environment for inflation. value is a better bet, though it is not dominant, it is a better bet than growth. guy: energy has had a great run, are we running out of road? jeff: we are not seeing it yet on a relative basis. we take our cues from the market. we keep one foot planted in history. what we do know, as we get towards that peak inflation, energy names start to lose their relative performance. we have not seen it yet. we talked about this with bond yields. i think it is safe to take a little bit of money off the
table from energy. we have been there for almost two years. we feel comfortable playing this from a strong hand standpoint. i would not be underweight the sector, we are watching for that relative performance term as it relates to health care and staples. we know once you get past peak inflation, health care tends to dominate. that will be an interesting shift in the dynamic of where inflation is boiling to today. if we get health care starting to outperform energy, we have a high confidence level that we are in this peak inflation and getting past this peak inflation zone, in terms of what the market since is and what the market cares about. alix: i am trying to get your take on positioning. do we have clean positions, or do we feel like there is going to be the conversation about margin calls? jeff: that is part of the nowhere to run, nowhere to hide.
you start taking out apple, a great example of tech. at some point, you say i bought things because i want safety. these are even going down. you look at up volume, the percentage of advantage on a daily basis, we were getting in the levels light last week that were synonymous with where we were in 2020. i think we are getting close, in terms of positioning, the talk on the street of forced liquidations, etc. those are hallmarks to get you into the latter innings of a tactical low in terms of the equity market. i think we are close to that in terms of what we have seen from the data. guy: the only thing that stands out as a sore thumb for me is that thesis of a tactical low, the -- the volatility in vix remains low. i do not remember when we had -- the vix is 31.
history would tell us, experience would tell me, you need to get into the 40's before you start to see that referencing pain in the market. why is volatility so low? what are you seeing in the vix? jeff: we do not use the vix that much. we use skewed data. the skewed data is not there. the data which is a reflection of the volumes, we started to see it late last week, a 25 day foot call ratio was starting to expand in the territory that was consistent with something tactical. i think the grade level for a low is maybe, maybe maybe plus. it is not an a or na+. if you are looking for the stars to align, they are not all aligned. the challenge is, they do not always have to be aligned. it is great when they do, but they do not always have to be to get that 7, 10, 15% bounce back
of of some type of low. guy: thanks for your thoughts. we appreciate it. a graph of -- jeff degraff of renaissance macro. so important to figure out what the charts are saying. business matters we are trying to figure out where the stock drop stops. this is bloomberg. ♪ as a main street bank, pnc has helped over 7 million kids develop their passion for learning. and now we're providing 88 billion dollars to support underserved communities... ...helping us all move forward financially. pnc bank: see how we can make a difference for you.
alix: with the third day, s&p down 3/10. nasdaq 100 in positive territory. where does the stock drop stop? want to pose that question to sarah hunt, alpine's portfolio manager. sarah: i wish i had an answer. it would be great if i could give you a number and say it would be fine. with we are seeing is a second stage of bearishness. you have the first stage, multiples came down, earnings estimates going up. we are seeing margin compression that we talked about last year at the beginning of this year, before you had the problems with energy and everything else. we were looking at the possibility for margins to come down. you are seeing them in real time. i think there is a one-off aspect as to how people are positioned in their inventory. you have to look at rising food and fuel prices. look at the fact that you are
going to have a hard time to get markets where they are. how do we figure out where earnings are going? guy: let's talk about this new phase. we have been through the valuation, recess seems to be offensive. we are going to through the earnings recess. in terms of bigger impact, where do you see being the biggest impact? are we halfway through this process in terms of fighting a bottom, how big an impact with this earnings reset have? sarah: it depends on how bad the earnings are. to the extent that some of this was in targets case, and inventory issue, he saw good numbers out of home depot, t.j. maxx, it is not a consumer pullback. you have a lot of things where people are trying to figure out how to come out of this pandemic. last year, everybody was saying -- staying home. this year, everybody wants to get on a plane and go somewhere. it is difficult for companies to figure that out. i do not think earnings will be across the board difficult.
each sector is going to have their own dynamic. i do not see lower food and fuel prices. unless people can raise prices to counteract that, we have a tough situation for a lot of reasons. it is not a huge surprise that the market is having a lot of trouble adjusting that in trying to figure out where it is going to go next. alix: apple, an estimated price to earnings rest you -- ratio is 22 times. is that enough? sarah: we were out of probable tech before this your started, i think out of probable tech we do ok. it is taking just as much of a beating as nonprofitable pet. apple's story is becoming a bigger story of what is going on. just like amazon, which is getting killed on the retail side, google had great numbers and was punished just as much as
everything else. that getting to everything that jeff mentioned earlier is what the market needs to do to get some sort of sense of bottoming. i do not know where the exact number for that is. that is going to to pend on -- depend on -- either from the fed, from russia, ukraine, there is no resolution to a lot of these unanswered questions. that makes things even more difficult. guy: are you surprised that the vix have not spiked more? normally, you would be expecting this to be in the 40's. it is in the 30's. that signals to me that the market isn't there yet. sarah: i do not follow enough of the vix to understand why it should or should not. i am surprised with what happened yesterday. you saw ringlets, orderliness versus on orderliness.
i am not clear on how it is calculated to get the numbers, but the volatility in the bond market has been so bad that the volatility in the stock market is almost normalish. that is where we are right now. i do not think anything can quite take a direction and stick with it. alix: let's talk about bond volatility and the bid into the bond market. is that where you should be going for safety? sarah: it is hard to be running into bonds when the fed is raising rates. i appreciate that as inflation peaks, maybe bonds peak. we are more equity managers then fixed income managers, i do not want to speak too much on where you should or should not go in the bond market. with a tightening cycle ongoing, you are going to see more volatility in bonds. i will say that the fact that the royal cruise line had to pay 8% for a bond issuance that they did tells me that it is
tightening, which is a question, how far will the fed go to tighten financial conditions? guy: if you've got money, cash, what should you be doing? should you be sitting on it, or would there be opportunities you would be doing to deploy that cash, rather than rotate that portfolio? sarah: every time you had a day where the market was up, you have a reversal the next day. we have had a little bit of elevated capital within our portfolios across the board recently. i am still hoping to find some sort of place where you can say, ok, i feel like there is a bottom, therefore, i do not mind spending that cash. otherwise, you are looking for specific stocks you like, and potentially adding to them. even energy could get cheaper in this route. energy has legs, i do not see what brings prices down in the near term. generally, if prices are moving
higher or staying elevated relative to history, that is going to be one of the good earnings stories of the year. alix: if you haven't sold yet, should you be selling now? sarah: if you weren't as spiritually handed to you as the market was yesterday, getting punched in the face, if you haven't done it yet, i almost think you should wait for a bottom to add to anything. i wouldn't be running out of equities, i think that is one of those reactions that you turn around and if you do get them, better news by the end of the year. midterms are coming up, i think the market, the equity market will be happier with that information. guy: thank you for your time, always appreciate it. sarah hunt of alpine woods. what are we doing next? the hedge fund that did battle with amateur traders.
ritika: allies rejected jetblue, $3.3 billion takeover. their choice is either to back jet loop or standby, with a rifle on intercontinental airline. the existing licensee has agreed to buy the entire portfolio and operate under a new brand, donald's became the latest company to announce it would pull out of russia in the wake of the invasion of ukraine.
-- this concludes what has been a widely watched commitment for 200 aircrafts that was reached three years ago. the plane -- $50 billion, ing says it has negotiated a substantial discount. that is your latest business. alix: and the market, that we have seen over the last few weeks, we had our first casualty. shutting down his 7.8 million dollar hedge fund. more than a year ago, the fund was hammered in short squeeze, our correspondent joins us now. is this a reaction to market conditions, or is this payback after the gamestop debacle last year? close even after the gamestop debacle, and ending the year lower, he was able to recoup the losses in january of last year. this year happened. in the first four months of this
year, he was down about 23%. a lot of his peers were down more in that timeframe. after two years of losses, he did say to investors he was going to throw in the towel and return money to investors after initially trying to reboot the fund. guy: is this the final act? does anybody believe it is the final act? >> he was known for shorting stocks and being successful at it. and a market like you are seeing now, a little bit of short positioning could have done a lot of investors well. the question for me is, if you look at what happened with plotkin and the peers losing money like chase coleman, who took off in the.com first, you have to know what the new set of hedge funds will look like, and who will gain from this market route. investors turn to hedge funds to hedge.
for plotkin, will it be a final asset? only time will tell. a great track record for the last few years. alix: do we have a read yet on how hedge managers are doing? sonali: is he going to be the only one that ends up having to return money to investors after such peak losses? we see how the year keeps going, but a lot more selling than there is buying. how are investors going to mitigate losses in this market route. the other thing i have to say, a lot of the easy trade have gone away, the cost of leverage is rising. anybody who is clipping coupons are doing anything that was a smaller term without that leverage, the question is whether those returns look like as fed raises interest rates higher. guy: i am assuming he is going to be running family money effectively. what does his shop look like in terms of not running external
money, running internal money? what kind of ship is that going to look like? sonali: we do not know what that looks like yet. there are some 30 investment professionals looking at melvin alone. all of these other shops, start to go through so much carnage, are they going to be shutting staff as their assets decline? are investors going to ask for renegotiation of fees? will make it or difficult to retain talent. these are pertinent russians. there was a talent war going on a year ago. the buy side was hiring hot and heavy. i know funds who are ready to pick through the carnage and start to attract talent from funds that are facing trouble this year. guy: yep. the talent war on wall street continues. opportunities, maybe. sonali, thank you for this great scoop. coming up, our next guest says the federal reserve is likely to keep tightening. fed speaker -- what does that
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and the futures. overnight, up slightly, then, down more than 1%, almost green, more than .6%. let's see how the day plays out. there is so much uncertainty in this system. retail earnings and a shoe as inflation creates a problem for these companies. weighing on investors, wondering when this will happen for other companies paired we have been talking about the possibility of a bear market rally. it is in place. so long is last week's low or the -- earlier this month's low holds, we are ugly to see, we could see a bounce back up into this range. it could be more of a bounce as opposed to a bear market rally. that move up is not a bear market rally, take a look at the rsi, close to oversold territory. if this round phillips into more and some sort of bear market rally, things could go along the
lines of what we saw in 2008, a number of weeks or months, and uneven, predictable one. may be up towards, not 2, 4500, but then that steep downtrend, that confirms the s&p 500 for a much lower level at some point this year. one thing that could help, the possibility of a bounce, the yields. the 10 year yield over the last couple of days, down 31 days. this as the overshot after the fed raised rates. they are in the whisper idea that perhaps things have gotten so bad that the fed is going to back off. the fed is not making any indication of that. that is something investors will be thinking about. bonds are haven aspects. we are seeing that traditional move. the key chart to watch as far as whether or not we get some kind of bounce could be the vix. if you look at the vix, you see lower highs which suggest that even as the s&p 500 has been selling off, the option is less
worried. it is more likely, to my view, you would see the vix dropped to 20 before going to 40. even though there probably is some sort of super spike ahead later this year. right now, who knows. let's see what happens with this volatility. alix: that would stress guy out. george saying earlier to, this caused michael for early, the chief u.s. economist at jp morgan, to lower his growth forecast. he says that growth has to flow, this has been what the fed has said, the fed will does what it takes to make sure that happens there is a narrative, that is what we are seeing in the market. the fed needs to break things, inflation and control, things are subsequently breaking. joining us now, longtail founder and cio with three decades of experience in the market. is this what we are seeing?
close i think we have talked about this for six months. i call it self-inflicted wounds. they went too far in terms of easing, now they have to reverse. they were buying assets a couple of months ago, liquidity is absolutely her and us. it tells me that markets are breaking. it has been the fact for a long time. guy: does the market break? an interesting piece on the bloomberg, you are looking at the possibility for the market concern. liquidity is a key factor. when it dries up, it dries up quickly. is that something we should be concerned about? are you seeing evidence that could happen? vineer: many market participant watch measures of liquidity. that is important, the depth in the futures contract, that has been declining for quite a while. right now, it is almost as bad
as it was during covid, may be the financial crisis. that can give the fed an excuse because it is not about growth and inflation. if markets quit functioning, it can give the fed an excuse to stop fighting aggressively and start talking in a friendly way for the market easing, potentially. alix: that would be a huge shift. do you think we could actually see that? does the market look like for that to happen? vineer: if you look at what is being priced in the market, treasuries are around 270 or so, the curve inverted just woman terribly a few months ago. then it started steepening again. we are sitting at the lows of the s&p 500, the recent low, liquidity is beginning to fall drastically. i think i sharp selloff, where the s&p falls maybe a couple
hundred points again in a day or two, let's say 3500 or below, i think that results in the fed saying, like as third jordan said, we are watching the markets. i think that is sufficient to call into question how far the foot is. guy: she said that inflation is the priority. his inflation still high where the market isn't functioning, what does the fed do? vineer: the mistake was made last year when they cap buying assets. there is no easy way out. the worst outcome, as a financial market participants we know, you can imagine the worst outcome, it can happen, and sometimes it does -- inflation doesn't come down, maybe it comes down to 6% 7%. there is general misery from prices. you've got the stock market down 30%.
people rein in spending. now, you've got a double problem, which is lower markets, lack of spending, and higher inflation. alix: the other side of that coin though, market jp morgan said, no recession, some people are going to -- summer, people are going to do more stuff. china is going to increase monetary and fiscal measures, is that not a monetary whitehorse? vineer: nominal earnings look fine. i think analysts are going to start recalibrating and ringing earnings down. that has happened in the past. the mind can change quickly. martin question is, not if the u.s. economy is going to survive in the long run. this is a fed driven, fed caused a problem. they can fix it. they can fix the markets by providing liquidity. the question is, what what does the path look like from here to
there? you might end up having a sharp product, which could be a great buying opportunity, and eventually, no recession. things are not looking that good. guy: ok. this is a tricky scenario that you are painting to navigate from an investing point of view. how do i invest in this kind of environment? do i invest in this kind of environment? vineer: that is a great question. i wrote a great piece on to your treasuries. you've got a lot of complexity, when markets become in liquid, what is the most liquid asset? u.s. treasuries, cash. i like to say they are as good, more liquid than gold. you make 2% or 3% additional -- the best part, if we are wrong, and we lose the opportunity cost to inflation, in two years, you
get your capital back because -- alix: won't that principle eased by inflation? vineer: the choice is a hard incision. you give up opportunity, or give up permanent capital by losing mark -- money in the markets? for me, it makes more sense, because the fed can bring down inflation -- guy: what about cash? vineer: cash, to percent or 3% less yield. alix: from that perspective, if i am listening to you, and i have allocated already, can i still do that? is there still time? am i hold up right now until we get relief? vineer: the great thing about the u.s. treasury market, it is on sale. foreign banks have been stalling. generally, bond markets have come under historic pressure.
the two-year treasury exists out there, you can buy as many as you want. it is still a good strategy. it is probably higher in yield than we enter, which is probably 20 basis points. you are getting it better than where we got in. guy: the credit markets. let's talk about what is happening in credit. in order to come to the market, you pay significantly more than you would have done three months ago. what do you see in credit spreads? vineer: this is interesting conundrum. part of it has to do with the fact that people are hoping that credit will not have the same kind of problems like it did in 2008, 2010. part of the reason is, interest rates are low, the vix is low. fix drives -- vicks drives credit spreads. if the stock market makes new lows, and accelerates, you might get a sharp spike in the vix, which drives credit spreads
wider, you get a reverse spiral effect. where people cannot lean on credit. that is the dangerous scenario, in my view. guy: keep an eye on the vix. great stuff. thank you. nice to speak with you, as ever. fantastic. vineer bhansali, longtail founder and cio. we look at how the housing market is grappling with ripening mortgage rates, supply chain issues, peggy of construction group joining us next to talk about what is going on in florida. this is bloomberg. ♪
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principal room. this is bloomberg. ♪ keeping you up-to-date with news from around the world. a sign that beijing is strengthening its energy ties with moscow as europe turned towards banning imports. bloomberg has learned it wants to replenish its strategic stock piles with cheap crude from russia. they are tapped during times of emergencies or sudden distractions. in london, please have wrapped up their high-profile investigation into boris johnson , more than 126 fines have been filed. none of those fines have been identified. a spokesman says johnson will not be fined a second time. the u.s. housing market has shown some signs of pulling off
-- home sales plummeting more than two years. rising prices and mortgage rates, the dow fell more than 2000 per -- global news 24 hours a day, on air and on "bloomberg quicktake." powered by more than 2,700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. alix: let's get details on existing home sales, they have declined by more than expected in the last month. you can look at the different reasons. mortgage rates are rising, demands. joining us is peggy hogan marken, president of marken construction group. it is good to get your perspective. we have been worried that the housing market is going to roll over. do you feel like it is supply or demand driven rollover we are seeing? peggy: i think it is a demand driven rollover to a certain extent.
in the middle income homes, those buyers are being impacted by the mortgage rates. i will say, the high-end home sales, the high-end condo sales, the market is as strong as ever. they are cash buyers with a ton of liquid assets. they want to move down here and take advantage of our economy and great weather. guy: peggy, the people i have talked to, my friends in florida talk about two things. house prices and their stock or folios. their stock portfolios are starting to crack in a big way. is there a reason for one cross to the other? peggy: absolutely. he said the market is not great right now. with inflation where it is that, we are seeing a huge increase in the multifamily sector. rental prices are through the roof. people are pulling their money, they want to get in on this hot real estate market. they are investing in multi-families, it is a safe bet right now. one of the few. alix: let me take the other
side. as the market traders, we are seeing crack's in the sub prime borrowers. credit card debt is rising, loan defaults are picking up on the lower end, are you seeing any of that? peggy: for sure. people are upset. people who are renting are upset. the prices are going up. people cannot afford it. it is a huge issue, not just in florida, but the whole country. i do not know what the solution is. i guess people are moving further outside the cities in looking for affordable housing options. guy: in terms of building houses, what is going on there? as you mentioned earlier on, construction has been booming. supply chains have been snarled. how much has that slowed down the amount of homes that are being built? how much is still
in trade? how much are the ones being built taking to finish? i am curious as to the nuts and bolts of building homes right now, how it is going. peggy: sure. to your point, the supply chain is still an issue. it has stabilized to a certain extent. it is not going to be fixed anytime soon. i think we are talking years, literally. what is happening, the industry has done a great job of adjusting the buying cycle for construction materials, trying to front end load the projects. things are going to be stored. which allows us to continue the process. i think with new infrastructure bill that just passed, we are going to see increased rain in the market, steel and concrete, which are problematic. to shutdown china, the war in ukraine, all of it is adding to our problems. the demand is there, the money is there, the industry is figuring out a way to make it
work. alix: when does it stop working? we are seeing that, wondering when that happens in the retail market. people stop buying stuff in stores when it gets too expensive, do you have any idea as to where that tipping point is? how much pricing power can be passed through? peggy: the only thing we have seen that would reflect that is a little bit of a shift, a little less of interesting condos and a shift towards the multifamily. i think people are still interested, they want to build even though prices are still high. people are willing to pay what in the past you would never have considered. we have clients that are developers that are saying, these numbers would never work, but they are. they are just continuing. they are anxious to get started right away, trying to take advantage of the market. guy: interest rates have gone from two to five.
is this a market that needs slowing down more? is this a market that needs help in slowing down from the federal reserve? peggy: i do. i do think so. not -- a bit of a question. guy: what does that correction look like? how significant does it need to be? peggy: i do not think it needs to be too significant. i think the supply chain, the cost of inflation are natural corrections within the market currently. i think it is something that has got to be watched closely. anything dramatic would have catastrophic effects that would ripple across the country. guy: great to catch up. beautiful day to do it with the housing data out, peggy hogan marker, president of the marker construction group. i want to take you to the rose
garden, the president is speaking. he is joined by the swedish prime minister and the british president, this is on the back of both countries making applicant patience -- making applications to join nato, the president adding his support to that effort and saying he will continue to bring that support. we continue to watch carefully, the view from ankara, the president in turkey. the expectation is, he probably will allow these two countries to join. the president talking about a strong united nato. pres. biden: an attack on one is an attack against all. article five of the washington treaty and the core.
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a tumultuous hour and a half bit -- hour and a half. abigail: there is a reprieve for crypto on the day. on the year, that is why it is a brief reprieve. it coin up slightly. on the year, bloomberg galaxy crypto index down. that is true for ether and bitcoin, both down in a big way. in the way it looks like stocks made bounce in the -- things are setting up for bitcoin. if you look at the technicals on bitcoin, for bitcoin, it may be more than a midterm bound. you can see how bitcoin has been stuck in this range between 30 and $60,000 per bitcoin over the last year, year and a half. down, down, down. that tells you buyers are less confident in terms of not buying on a higher level. the sellers, more confident,
too. there is support around here, let's call it around $30,000, the exact level isn't too critical. if bitcoin can bounce, there is a good chance you see a bounce back up to $40,000 for bitcoin. the reason think it could happen from a technical perspective, the rsi oversold, coming off below that $30 -- 30 level, suggesting we may see the momentum again in it coin. it makes sense, given the fact it has been down, down, down so much. a bit of a reprieve. will it be to 40,000? hard to say. maybe. unlike stocks, there could be a chance that if there is this kind of a bounce, maybe it develops into something more. maybe it is not just near-term. there's -- this could be a positive. guy: yeah. thank you very much, indeed
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