tv Bloomberg Markets European Open Bloomberg May 24, 2022 3:00am-4:00am EDT
the oil embargo. we're waiting for the details. >> you know europe, francine. it is always moving slowly. there are debates. eventually the europeans do the right thing which is what i they did. who would tell them to borrow on markets and give engrants to some countries at reduced interest. francine: when you look at currency. is dollar-euro parity a problem? >> i'm not going comment. the only thing i will say is we're very atentative. we monitor very carefully because it has an impact on inflation. francine: you have been pretty vocal on cryptocurrencies. we have spoken about different currencies. where are we now, may 2022 on this? >> the central bank digital currency interesting explored and analyzed its needs and
purposes completely cleared between all 19 members of the euro area. i think we are moving on at a steady and good pace in order to make sure that we have the right technology and right design for the future and serve the right needs obviously focusing on retail and we don't want to set aside the commercial banks. they have to be part of the process and we said that all along and they have to be partners in this endeavor so i think it is going well. it is not going to happen overnight because we are actually putting on the table the guarantee of the sovereign in this matter. a digital euro will have the same guarantee as a bank note. francine: we see so much volatility in the market. bitcoin, we're not sure what bitcoin is at this point. is it a hedge against inflation or a real asset class? >> all i know is it has moved up
and down. some people are experiencing this at the moment to their peril. francine: one last question because i know you have to go and have many meetings. what are you most looking forward to this davos? >> oh, i try to grab as much food for out this, as much new development suggestions from colleagues, friends, people that i meet. i'm not necessarily into a messaging trip here. i'm more interested in what other people have to say. francine: as always, thank you so much for joke us on bloomberg. that was the president over the european central bank. back to you in london. mark: fantastic. thank you much indeed. a couple of lines come out from christine lagarde. she reiterated this back at out of negative rates by the end of the third quarter saying that the european central bank is not behind the curve and the timing
is perfect. we'll see whether investors agree on that. we'll check euro-dollar shortly. checking the markets now. of course investors also digesting the earnings downgrade from snap. the forecast reduced on concerns about the macro economics and inmedication that and high yields and a drop in advertising revenues and that is going through social media space. china remains front and center. stimulus around $20 billion in tax cuts. downgrading their views. the government is targeting 5.5%. bloomberg exhibition said it
could fall as low as 2%. the cac lower by 75 points the spanish ieb exlower. italy lower by 1%. it is risk off today after the moves that we saw yesterday. positive up until that session and earnings downgrade from snap. let's see how things are playing out. the focus on what's happening within tech. looking at further losses, 2%. the euro, 107 has inched up up .2% digesting those comments from the european central bank. the u.s. 10-year at 283. brentz lower on the back again of concerns there is not enough stimulus coming through from china. down by 1%. let's go to bloomberg's managing editor. what are you looking at? mark: you said it is all about tech. i'm looking at the nasdaq 100.
i'm lacking inspiration today. i'm resorting to technicals. price actions are so terrible. when will its stop falling and bottom out? it is unclear what the catalyst is. we're probably due for a fair market bounce at some point. when will it come? this might sound like a made up imaginary unicorn stuff to trade off. when you see more than 50% retracement that's when people starts to notes pull back a long way. do i buy in otis bail? enough, this tallies with its consolidation period, we saw in late 2020, many stopped out or entered position at that level. that is the highest volume trade area we have seen in last 20 years.
we might look tr the start of the bear market. maybe this week or after. tom: thank you. let's bring in our markets reporter on tech. they are still hiring an additional 500 people this year at snap. concern about the advertising revenue particularly when it comes to social media companies. how much should we draw? is this idio sin accuratic? >> you can tell that investors are disappointed. for a long time tech stocks were these profit warnings in the u.s. stock market. this shows they too are not immune from headwinds like inflation and rising interest rates and the war in ukraine. at the same time consumers are coming out of the pandemic and not holed up at home with their
phones anymore and i think people are really kind of concluding that a lot of social media are not as safe as we thought they were. mark: this is about that move around spending from those online objects and businesses too, services, things like travel and leisure. let's get back to davos where fran san francisco standing by after that market interview with president christine lagarde of the e.c.b. francine? francine: tom, thank you so much. we talked about inflation and risk, recession. i'm now delighted to be talking to the chief executive of u.b.s. ralph, thank you for joining us. so much to talk about when it comes to inflation and recession. what are your clients telling you? do they want to be fully invested or are they worried about what's coming? >> i'm not sure they are worried about what's coming. that's where most clients need
advice how to go about their portfolios. it is unique for us as a wealth manager to be able to -- now is the time to give advice. now it is pretty unclear. now is the time. how would you want to protect your wealth or develop your wealth? what you see at this moment because it is not clear is that they stay invested but not more money is coming into the market. francine: is the this the only way to make money in the next 12 months? >> it only happens when there are transactions, if there are no transactions, money will not flow. this will not last for long. i think in the next three months there will be much more clarity
coming through as to the direction and clearly a couple of things. we just went through, we had -- three major shocks, right? the pandemic shock. the war shock, and the energy transition shock. supply shocks. demand shocks all together. of course it is unclear at this moment in time. we will have to figure this one out. find bigger steps to maneuver in order to settle. clarity from china. francine: but interest rates are going up in europe. >> absolutely. the rates getting into positive territory. they can make bigger steps there. real rates are negative. i think it may not be as bad to make those moves. it builds ammunition for when you need it again.
that is a positive. francine: talk to me about russian sanctions. how difficult is it going after this money on people that are sanction without hurting clients that have not been sanctioned? >> well, i mean, the point is in essence every russian has been sentenced that doesn't have a permit to resize in tervetion u. or switzerland. if you receive 100,000 or pay 100,000 or 50,000, we are to report and to control that money. that's a sanction. and then you have more specific sanctions. honestly, like we do, always with our clients, we are pretty straight. this is what it is. we have to deal with it. you have to deal with it. we have to comply with sanctions. they know u.b.s. is a global
institution. will it is u.s. sanction, u.k. sanctions, swiss angsts, we have to comply. francine: was there a danger of oversanctioning? just to make sure they won't get in trouble? i don't know whether this is a danger or not or if it was the right thing to do. >> you have to go back to what is the purpose of sanctions to begin with p and that is more political decision for us to follow suit. in the beginning it was more -- as to the clarity and what the sanctions met and how to comply with them. it has become makeup more clearer in the last couple of weeks. clearly we applied with it. we had some more time to discuss is this a situation that you mean? francine: i have to ask you about m&a. we have been talking -- nothing
has happened. are you expecting cross border? do you want to be part of a consolidation phase? there are always rumors. >> we came wake up a strategy. we made it clear that we bank on the wealth trends in the world. we see most wealth will be created in asia and the u.s. if you want to focus on those, that is basically the geography where we will invest. we can grow organically. we're showing that every quarter but in the u.s. as we have indicated we have announced the -- wealth front. francine: the u.s., right? >> so yes, we are active. we're active in a way that we can accelerate our organic plans by investing in skills, scale or growth and that's where we would be looking at. francine: you can do well in the
u.s.? how much are you expecting to be able to tackle that market? >> we are a large player. we rank anywhere number four, number five. we have a sizable position. doing very well there. we go back a long time in the u.s. we're doing really well. we have financial advisers. how can with e make them better and how can they grow their business? francine: do you think you can take on wall street titans? >> sure. i don't know why not? we are truly the largest global network for private money. 4.45 trillion. there is only one. u.b.s. not to brag. that is what we are. the question is how do you bring it together and make it
interesting for all of your schients we're truly managing this as an ecosystem where we see vem opportunities for u.s. clients and brazilian opportunities for asian clients. they don't want to invest in -- francine: sometimes they have liquidity issues. look at europe. consolidation in europe? are you buying anything in europe? >> i want to separate the question. in the eurozone, i think, i find really difficult. they have done a tremendous job creating a level playing field. they should have much more credibility, much more confidence from the local authorities in what they have done and built. also in terms of safety there. as long as the local authorities sit in liquidity, there is not a lot of benefit. francine: i need to ask you
about working from home. i imagine that one of the things they think about is how to retain talent. is that through bonuses or flexibility to work at home? >> always a mix. for us it is very important that we are. >> in a way that we think it is important for anyone, specifically, all the generations to come. we offered them that flexibility. we're not saying you all need to come back to work but within your team you have to agree when are you all together in the office because i think there is merritt in being in the office together at moments if you want to coach, transfer experience, if you want to plan and you know, if you want to have planning sessions or there is the merit to be together.
we're flexible. we're rolling out hybrids. we're expecting 2/3 of our workforce to work in a hybrid way. francine: thank you very much. great pleasure to speak to you. today. we're going to have plenty more throughout the day here, day two to have world economic forum in dallas. tom: great stuff. you have the data out of france when it comes to the p.m.i. falling below the forecast just a smidge and manufacturing p.m.i. coming in lower. 54.45. the forecast was for 545.2. just a reminder that euro dollar higher by .3%, madam lagarde reconfirmed that view. it will be at a negative by the end of the third quarter. coming up, we're back in davos where we'll speak with a chairman. that is next. this is bloomberg. ♪
baseline. we have the negative, the adverse, the various alternatives there on the basis of hypothetical. interruption of gas splice. for the moment, we are not seeing a investigation in the euro area. francine: we are joined by -- the chairman. the conversation here, on oil embargoes. inflation and where we're going to look at a recession. thank you very much. first of all for the insurance, reassurance business, you have been in charge for a bit. is it less boring than you thowghtd it would be?
it feels like between covid and the war, it is never dull. >> we are in a sector that is there to absorb risk that are now taken by the primary -- and so the volatility is part of our business. in the last few quarters we had our fair share of volatility. you mentioned covid, ukraine, a big issue. we actually don't see claims. fears of what could happen. the economy outlook is not so rosy. >> what does an oil embargo mean if and when get it? >> that is all about the repercussions like food price and inflation. and on the supply chain. it means inflation planes, on
properties, on motors. spare parts are more expensive. claims we have to pay more. of course some of this is embedded in our models. some of it will be adjusted. the good news is we are able to constantly adjust that plane and premiums for that. francine: do you have worst and best case scenario in terms of claims. i know it is very difficult. cope with know what happened. >> on ukraine we expect the outcome of the ukraine war to be in the range of 10-20 billions for the industry. a medium size event. francine: i'm a bit nervous in
asking you this. do you worry about monkeypox? is this the next pandemic? >> by default, in our business, in every business now, you have to be somehow paranoid about any -- measures to mitigate. we should not make the mistake of down playing anything. who knows what's going to happen at the end of the summer. mortality coming down. francine: has covid changed the way you perceive risks? we haven't had a pandemic in a pretty long time. >> not only what we perceive. you see people taking on life insurance protections. you see people seeking for
example, taking on more cyber risk of protections. the consequence of what is going on in ukraine and you know, of course the war is not just a convection of war but also a lot going on in cyber space and so risk perceptions by policy holders is increasing which is that very good. only 25%. 75% of the risk. francine: it is crazy when you think about it. >> particularly when you look at it in emerging markets. the coverage of in asia, low single digits. francine: if you look at blockchain, can it help in terms of following concerns and measuring some of the risks out
there? >> more and more about yearks some -- but more about the efficiency of the process of documentations than it is about risk taking. data of course is gaining a lot of -- in the way we look at rescues. of course we need to adjust the models because forward looking and assumptions on climbs in any risk has changed in the last few years. francine: 745% of a risk -- a a scary number. you have to pay. >> you have to pay. some of the rescue by the way are probably not ensurable. better described are ensurable at a price that is not economically -- attractsive. in many areas, this is an insurance gap. it is a big issue.
if you look at how to preserve you know, the necessity, using more access is essential. and there, private and public partnerships are important. in the caps area is crucial. francine: i also heard there are ships in odessa and places like that that are not leaving because the insurance is such a premium that is millions and millions a day to get them out. >> yeah. that is one aspect. we need to see exactly what kinds of damages come out of this. nationalized. francine: do you feel like the insurance industry is doing enough to manage these dirty assets? >> yeah, we do.
in general, i would say yes. i think that is of course like in any ranking. i can only talk about ourselves and you know, we do a lot. managing our assets. ambitions tobe neutral by 2030. we are doing more and more on the liability side. a program in which we will not need coverage to pollut energy producers. francine: thank you so much for the conversation. day two here at the world economic forum. we'll have plenty more throughout the day. great interviews. we'll be speaking with someone twr goldman sachs.
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tom: welcome back to the open. 30 minute spos the european trading day. christine lagarde rejects the idea that the euro area is heading for a recession telling bloomberg the central bank is not in panic mode. the rally snaps. u.s. futures slide after snap slashes its profit forecast. jamie dimon says storm clouds hanging over the u.s. economy may dissipate. ask questions later. a force may be needed after two more half point increases. they said get to 2% and then see. let's check in on these markets after those important comments from the e.c.b. president christine lagarde saying we will be out of negative territory by
the end of the third quarter. on the back of those comments. currently trading. given that warning, that shock from snap and in terms of its earnings forecast downgrade. dragging equities here in europe. additional stimulus yes, but downgrades from the like of u.b.s. and jpmorgan morgan. the european bench mark down .7%. the ftse lower by 60 points reporting that they are looking at a tax on energy and oil. iron ore, corp., all lower largely as a result of concerns about the demand out of china.
also looking at 1.4%. energy down 1.2%. let's get back to davos. day two to have world economic forel. francine is standing by. francine: talk when it comes to inflation. market volatility. i'm with a goldman sachs international chief executive. thank you for joining us. trying too at the markets and figure where the next trade comes from. what are your traders telling you? >> we're seeing volatility. i expect we'll continue to see more. obviously a number of big topics. the gio application is front and center.
-- gio forensics is front and there is a lotter data coming out and if you think what came through the last two years, the pandemic, a massive intervention, you had to find the path forward, it is not surprising there is volatility. this is going to be a tricky journey. francine: how much more volatility should we expect? >> i think this volatile think continue. there is so much more still in front of us. the whole growth question. when we look at the u.s. markets and you talk about the s&p, the consumer still seems to be strong and you can make my arguments for that. the balance sheets are strong. the housing market supply and demand. the economy started to weaken.
the central banks tend to do more than they anticipate. they are going have to do -- rates go to a level to really quell inflation. that could push the markets to a different level. that's what the markets are trying to figure out. we see these moves in the s&p. a huge amount of money came into the equity markets. i think there is still a journey in front of us. francine: do you worry about liquidity at all? >> the decline, there has been significant decline with the s&p down 20%. it has been a very orderly process so far. we'll see if it continues to be orderly. francine: what are your clients telling you? are they optimistic and the future after the volatility?
are they just cautious. >> it depends which market you talking about. europe is obviously going through a meaningful transition particularly on the energy front. the war is in europe. the energy dependency front and center here. a lot more work to do around the energy supply chain and the border supply chain issues. a real focus on inflation. if you talk to the -- you mean be talking to them, i think they will have a view of ip nation which will exceed the view. i think they see it in their businesses continuing for a longer period of time. francine: do you see it in the pipeline, some of the i.p.o.s or just the business that you bring in that europeans are more cautious and taking the step to see how it pans out?
i imagine it is top list of their concerns. >> the thing that is strong is the m&a business. we have not seen a slowdown on that front and that is where the continue side, there are a lot of companies wanting to buy assets for a long period of time and prices run away from them and they are getting to a place now, people are -- we continue to see focus there. a little bit of a wait and see as we get through this volatile period and then the asset manager, the private equity community continues to be very, very active. they are didn't on the financial markets and they are there and they are not as confident as they have been. and we need to find a flaw in the market particularly on the high yield side. the question mark there is where is the -- where is the 10-year going settle? at what rate should we be discounting these cash flows. francine: and the answer?
>> then i think the markets will turn back pretty quickly on the financing side. to sustain the private equity bid. you're talking about i.p.o.s. that is obviously way off, year-on-year, 70%, 80%. in a very different place. francine: what do you worry about, the next 12 months? it feels like we're going to see mayhem for a while and then things stabilize. what if we hit a recession? >> i think we have to get a sense. there are a lot of economists. some of the central banks are starting to feel that inflation has peaked or at least it is peaking and as get to the end of 20 if you're down in the 3% to 4% range. if that is the path it takes then maybin nation is avoided and you get a soft landing and you get growth slightly below trend for a period of time. if inflation stays elevated, the central banks know what they
have to do. that is to push rates and you can potentially get a different outcome. francine: we were talking on air a couple of weetion ago about the fact that you have unlimited -- for the managing director. how difficult is it to attract talent? how much do you need to give people perks? working from home. unlimited vacation if they want them, things like that. to make sure have the very best. >> first of all the talent path line is very, very strong. people wanning to come into the industry, undergrads, a huge pipeline. from everywhere in world. it is a real global pipeline. we great deal about that and continue to attract excellent talent at that level. this is much more a focus on making sure our senior people take some vacation. francine: do you take your logical day? >> i take some. i'll take some this summer but
we want to make sure people take vacation and take consecutive days. a day here and day there doesn't do it. we are operating at high levels of intensity, year in, year out. we wanted to make sure people get a break, recharge their batteries, come back so we can do what we have to do. francine: are you expecting the workforce to go back to 2019? >> if we look back it at those numbers. tbroip 2018. >> same thing. if we look back at those numbers, on a normal day, 80% to 85% of the people would be -- some people would be working from home. people traveling, people on vacation. now it depends on the way of the week. there are many days of the week where there is a 70% number. those numbers are generally drifting up. we have always had a view that flexibility is important. i think we learned ways to make
flexibility even more efficient through the last two years. we're not going to use that. flexibility will be part of the future. francine: richard, thank you so much for your time. the goldman sachs chief financial officer. back to you in london and then we'll have plenty more interviews throughout the day for day two at davos. tom: thank you very much indeed. the central bank of china, pboc and the bank regulator asking lenders to boost lending and a reminder this is within the context of additional stimulus that officials have signed off on including $21 billion worth of tax cuts. infrastructure spending on railway and part of auto sector as well. none of that has done anything to address concerns. you're not seeing a lot of
movement. the other piece of context that is important is we saw that surprise cut of the lone prime rain, the benchmark, five-year loans and mortgages. this is again a -- the central bank, the pboc and regulator asking banks to boost lending. in this concerns many officials about the impacts of the economy. coming up, we speak with a guest live from davos. that interview is next. this is bloomberg.
to be lean on their banks to step up lending. we're focusing on what's happening in davos, the conversations we're having throughout the hour at the world economic forum. francine lacqua is standing by for us. francine: thank you so much, tom. i'm joined by the chief executive officer. thank you for joining us. i have a million and one questions on a familiar topic. energy transition, inflation. first of all, an update on russian operations. where are we? >> we are at the point in the company we have in russia is separated from us. we were in the last stages of selling this company. we are now restarting this process from scratch. so i think -- francine: selling to whom? >> we have to find a viable buyer or eventually an alternative which would be
something close to our employees. there is no question about it. the companies today they consolidate and separate it in there is no direct relationship. remain an investor, that once a year goes to shareholder -- and that's its at this point. francine: when do you expect to go back to normal? ties are russia. >> the company is a small company. 0.5%. for us it is already normal. and the company is working well. it is working in russia in the system as always. so there are no major disruptions to our preations. it is a concern insofar as the relationship with our shareholders remains complex and we need to separate. francine: talk to me a little bit about what the future holds for european gas. we're looking and spoke to the
german economic minister about an oil embargo the next couple of days. is there a worry that vladimir putin retaliates with a gas embargo? >> i think we should be prepared for some kind of retaliation. i think we should be prepared for a reduction of our supply of fossil fuels from russia. don't forget, we also buy coal. coal, oil and gas from russia. this must be taken into account globally. i think we have to be prepared to reduce that dependence. and diversify. that is what the concern is today. francine: if you look at the timetable, the timeline, it just doesn't match. >> it does not match. there will be some shocks i think. we have to be prepared for that. to dream this thing will phase out without any trauma, i think -- there will be -- we have to
be prepared, let's put it this way. for the worst. if it doesn't happen, ok. honestly this is not a -- situation and shocks can happen. francine: what is the best way the deal with the trauma? i want to talk about the win fall tanks and there is one in italy. it hasn't hurt pressure to profits so much. >> it is of course in this predickment, there is a factor . there is no correlation on the gas prices. as we see in the index and dynamics disconnected. so there is some windfall. probably a lot of it. a windfall tax maybe not the best market friendly measure but it is an extraordinary measure that you can understand. clearly a windfall tax is for -- applies for windfall profits.
if you have them or don't have them, that is where the difference lice? francine: -- difference lice. francine: would you welcome that? >> i think it is something if properly done can mitigate the impact. if it is not the sleuks, the long-term, i think it is curb gas price, that high without any reason, there is speculative -- francine: a lot of countries are against this. you have to curb at a european level? do you literally rip out the rule book for energy and restart over? >> look, if you look at gas prices and gas is imported into europe, there is no relationship between what we are paying and what is the price we pay to the suppliers. so it is like 2 1/2 or three
times higher. it is the damage in europe and who is benefiting from that is mostly the trading companies and some importers. imports from elsewhere would not be affected if a cap is put at the right level. i think that needs to kick in, otherwise this will be ongoing for a long time. francine: talk to me a little bit about immobility. is it still in the cards or sit too much? >> mobility is a trend. it is encouraged by the kind of situation if you look at the prices of gasoline at this point. i think this is a big future for the industry. the infrastructure is needed. there is a lot of investment going on gloacialtion the u.s., south america, europe. this is really a very large part of world, we are going on with that plan.
francine: how quickly? >> probably the end of the year, we'll be done with that. francine: thank you so much for joining us. with that, back to you in london. we'll have plenty more interviews throughout the day. tom: thank you very much indeed. of course from davos. coming up, christine lagarde's timetable for hikes. colleagues want to move faster. more from our exclusive interview with christine lagarde. this is bloomberg.
>> we are at the turning point. we have all of the components in place for that. we are turning our back to negative interest rates. we are moving very likely into positive territory at the end of the third quarter and then of course we will calibrate. we will establish exactly by how much we want to do that. francine: when you talk about no longer negative rates. does the market understand this could mean positive rates? >> when you're out of negative, you can be at zero or slightly above zero. this is something that we will determine on the basis of our projections, on the basis of our forward guidance. i think there are good reasons
to believe that all three conditions will be satisfied in june and further on during the summer. francine: where are we in the third quarter? could we be above zero in terms of interest rates? is that the trajectory? >> what i'm saying, i stick to. we will be out of negative interest rates most likely before the end of third quarter. francine: how do you see inflation developing now, because there are so many unknowns because of the war. >> there are lots of forces and some of them, you know, counteracting against each other. you have the war which in and of itself is an absolute drama and has much economic impact not just in the ukraine and russia but the rest of the world. energy prices have gone up significantly and present a big chunk of inflation. we have food prices. a whole series of things weighing on growth down and pushing inflation up. francine: how likely is it that the eurozone goes into
recession? >> we don't have that as a baseline. we do scenarios and we have the negative, the adverse, you know, various alternatives there on the basis of hypotheticals such as boycott of oil, interruption of gas supplies. that would have a negative impact on the economy. tom: that e.c.b. president christine lagarde speaking to francine lacqua at davos a little earlier. those comments moving the markets when it comes to euro-dollar. the highest level you have seen since april the recession is not the base case for the e.c.b. and saying the central bank is not behind the curve at a negative rate by the end of q3. nasdaq futures lower by more than 2%. "surveillance" up next.
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