tv Bloomberg Surveillance Bloomberg July 18, 2022 7:00am-8:00am EDT
>> retail sales plus corporate earnings equal u.s. continuing to outperform. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance." jonathan: good morning, good morning, this is "bloomberg surveillance, i'm jonathan ferro along with kailey leinz. on the nasdaq 100, we are up by 1.12%. earlier, bank of america earnings, coming up next, goldman. tom: goldman sachs telling us maybe it be eight better quarter and we will hear from j.p. morgan in a moment. green on the screen, it's a very nice live through the market, 22,000. jonathan: next week the federal reserve conclusion after the consumer sentiment survey of data on friday with a rate hike
that is 75 and not on hundred. >> i don't know what to make of the ecb meeting. i think it's hugely anticipated by economic wants. -- wonks. what is she going to say that's going to change the dialogue around a brutal war in ukraine and horrific weather. jonathan: what's the most important aspect of thursday? the ucp work nord stream one coming online and how much gas will do it. jonathan: i will -- tom: i will go with that. we are seeing it in the price of gold -- gold -- the price of coal and gas. the distinction between the confidence and tone in europe versus america, it's really stark. jonathan: let's just say that what you are hearing from the bank executives about the strength and the resilience of the u.s. economy is perhaps not shared by the you. counterpart.
kailey: it's a serious cost-of-living crisis and that is the difference between the europe in the u.s.. in the u.s. inflation has mostly been driven by high demand. in europe it's a lot of energy. the ecb isn't necessarily ready to do anything about it. they are hiking into material economic weakness. how much will they be able to deliver? jonathan: new york city, pouring rain. in london they have a heat wave. typically i would joke about london and their so-called heat waves but ultimately this is a hot, hot one in the city of london today. jonathan: yeah in europe and as matt miller mentioned earlier in texas, i think graham is the right word as well and it goes to climate change. what i would emphasize certainly what we are seeing is climate change flat-out being pushed aside. you see it in australia and with newcastle and europe.
jonathan: the housing across the city will be problematic over the last couple of days. jonathan: we have air conditioning at queen victoria street. -- tom: we have air conditioning at queen victoria street. jonathan: that's right. on the nasdaq 100 we look something like this, 1.4%. bond market, yields higher. this is what risk on looks like, isn't it? positive 7/10 of 1%. a euro that is stronger today. crude, 9930 four, up 1.8%. kailey: gains in oil prices is not what the biden administration wants to see after august 3. that is still a few weeks away. let's get through what's happening on this monday where we got bank of america result 15
to 20 minutes ago. goldman sachs was on deck. we have heard bank after bank talking about the strength of the consumer and the economy. what is it looking like when it comes to trading revenue and investment in getting? 10:00 a.m., the national association of homebuilders housing index, expecting it to all further with a cooling in the housing market and the impact of higher rates starting to bite. then at 4 p.m. we will get treasury capital flow data that be really interesting to help us understand the behavior of the dollar in recent months and just demand in general for dollar-denominated assets with a lag from the state that is six months old and still china could be interesting, chinese treasuries are holding at $1 trillion for the first time in 12 years. jonathan: goldman earnings should be 25 minutes away. joining us now is the portfolio manager at j.p. morgan.
i hate this question but we have to ask it, bad news, is a good news in this market? phil: looking at the economic data we got so far, john, with retail sales from friday or the june payroll number, you would think this is just an all-time environment to take risk. the problem is we have a nine plus inflation guide number and that strong game that i just mentioned, which had been good news for the economy, is bad news if you think about what it means for the reserve. it opens their window to continue to be very aggressive. on the flipside this is a worse year, the worse we have ever seen for fixed income. that's not hyperbole. the worst ever for the aggregate index was 2.9% in 94 and if you talk to old bond people about 1994 they go cross eyed. the aggregate is down 10% right
now. this is less uncertainty about how aggressive the fed is going to be. really, no end in sight in inflation rolling over. that's something that has caused interest rate volatility to jump 70% from last year, of course leading equity volume. i made tom crazy because i compared the 10 year treasury to reggie jackson and all that stuff. but that stuff has to slow in order for folks to be more comfortable about equities and that is the reason we are a little underweight right now. tom: the most prestigious degrees in america from fordham led by salvatore a few years ago, the giant, we all studied dominic salvador. i want you to account for the inflated revenue stream. as you asset allocated, how do you treat revenue growth that is not for percent to 5% but is a
goofy thing of real growth less chang or miss inflation on top of it? phil: that is what makes it look misleading, tom, the nominal rate of revenue streams, he would point to something very risk on. but as he said it's inflated here. the inflation story for us, maybe it peaked in june. maybe. but the end of the day the fact that the federal reserve, tom, is going rapidly through neutral. that was the hope earlier. moving rapidly through neutral into restrictive, as you mentioned, the yield curve inverting, pretty significantly putting the crosshairs on growth. leading us to be more underweight on risk. however we are pounding our fists on diversification right now. do you realize that the 60/40, everyday i wake up i try to do it as an asset allocator.
this year it's down 10%. very rare. here's the punchline, every other time the 60/40 was down 10%, the following 12 month return was average positive 18. that's really important for us right now. kailey: you are saying essentially it is time to buy bonds if you don't want to buy risk assets? phil: we believe that what occurred this year, nowhere to hide, the barclays bloomberg aggregate down 10%, those days we think are behind us. from the asset allocation portfolio construction decision, even though we are not as bullish on equities just yet, future interest rate hikes, bonds will provide diversification and that is something that will really, we are really clear on that with clients despite what has happened in the first seven months of this year. jonathan: commenting on red sox
yankees, phil? final word on that? phil: no contest, i will leave it at that. [laughter] jonathan: tk, you have to have it. tom: it happens every summer. can you comment on the fact in this world, radio and television, we are in the middle of a massive thunderstorm. thunder and lightning generated this morning from 270 park avenue. jonathan: is that right? are they building a new building? we have seen that structure going up. how big that is. absolutely massive. phil: i hope i make it that long. [laughter] tom: you are in good company. jonathan: phil, jp morgan, asset management. you can feel it shake this morning, the building. the future is up by 1.2. counting it down to goldman earnings about 20 minutes away. jonathan: very different from
bank of america and what we saw from fortress diamond here a few days ago. it's going to go through it and stop by as well, always an original story. tom: what i find fascinating is where gorman has gone to wealth management, what is jp morgan going to? maybe they are the bank least change? jonathan: the day after the fed next week it is apple's turn. down picking up? tom: i haven't read, suba does a great job here, dan eyes and the rest of them. i haven't really read it other than what are they going to do, stop generating cash? i don't think so. jonathan: the banks are talking to us about the consumer resilience and how much savings there are, leverage being lower than it used to be on consumer balance sheets. we know all that stuff. i want a real insight into what's happening with spending
right now and we are looking to tech for that. tom: i got mango today, i just don't like it. jonathan: mango tango? tom: un-american. jonathan: i want to comment from kaylee about capex, southwest spending, all that good stuff, tom. tom: we don't know the answers, do we? kailey: we'll find out. jonathan: there we go. she's on this before, hasn't she? she knows. i'm sorry, kailey. [laughter] from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ >> keeping you up-to-date with news from around the world, i'm ritika gupta. gulf producers, optimistic on increased output after the visit to saudi arabia by president biden. confident that there will be a few more steps in the coming week and that any decisions to pump more would be made within opec.
in the u.k., sky news canceled the final debate in conservative party candidate, saying that two of the five pulled out of the event after last night's debate turned personal where soon act -- rishi sunak accused others of borrowing and conservative mps are illuminating one candidate today. the international monetary fund that they would other global out substantially in the next update after the g20 finance ministers ended their meeting in bali without agreeing on a communique and the imf downgrading their outlooks by 3.6 percent after russia in graded ukraine -- invaded ukraine. international airshow outside london, delta airlines purchasing 100 other 737 max 10 jetliners with a value of $7.6
billion overall, usually there are big discounts on big orders in august. the bond rate is the first large-scale gathering of aviation industry leaders in three years. global news 24 hours a day on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta, this is bloomberg. ♪
>> they made a major shift in their policies, recognizing since they started amassing forces that the markets have been affected and there is a sub why demand issue with announced increases for july and august. basically what we heard on the trip, i'm very confident we will see a few more steps in the coming weeks. jonathan: one of the shop at -- sharpest minds in the state department, a senior designer on energy security from cvs. good morning in 12 minutes we will have 12 minutes from goldman, hopefully. going into that, futures are off. the path continuing for now by 1.2 percent. yield time by a at three basis points. a dollar weakness out there at the ecb and doj on thursday this wednesday with tom crude up by 99.5%. jonathan: i really want to point
out curve inversion. john, -20 basis points, the difference in yield between the 10 year and the two-year getting out to one quarter of one basis point with any breakdown they. jonathan: a lot of that, a lot of that came from the rally yield to lower. tom: remember, for outcomes into yields, it gets complicated. always complicated in american politics is the great thing that i get wrong, you get wrong, every quarter gets wrong. arizona, a quaint place of two little congressional districts and with phoenix it has exploded. anne-marie, on fascinated by the work in the washington post this morning of pence and trump out in arizona trying to find the next republican party. phoenix is not the phoenix we grew up with. anne-marie: no, certainly not. arizona is purple, right? a ton of companies coming in
bringing on the social economic level a lot of higher educated individuals and it is starting move left. we have seen that over the course of the last eight or 10 years or so and it is why the republican party is out there trying to make sure they can shore up the right wing base had of november and 2024, that is where trump and pence are looking. tom: the great unknown here, i know so many people upset by the eight flavors of latino, latina, this and that. how are the two parties going to deal with a critical part of the arizona public? annmarie: it's a great question. a lot of members of the community don't like this label. a recent episode from jill biden, talking to a group of latinos talking about how they are as diverse as a breakfast burrito, getting a ton of
pushback. you can see each side trying to make sure they are shoring up this massive voting base and depending on who you are talking to is it really breaking through? not so sure. kailey: jonathan: obviously -- kailey: obviously it's all in the run-up to the midterms in november in the biggest problem dogging the democrats is inflation, hence him being so visible about trying to rein in gas and oil prices. how successful was his trip to saudi arabia in terms of echoing and resonating with his own party or even the u.s. public. kailey: coming home to the white house, many would say he's coming home empty-handed. a few wins in terms of overflights, the saudi's will now be able to develop. then you had u.s. officials there saying that they do believe that there will be certain steps taken in the next few weeks like what happened at the opec plus meeting.
but immediately after the president in u.s. officials said this, saudi official said that it depends on supply and demand and that there was no clear-cut firm decision that they would come to the president's rescue. when it comes to oil it will be a you weeks until you see whether or not the trip was a clear win for the president in terms of bringing down oil and gas prices. kailey: conversation about contradictions, talking about her arius that is on the campaign trail, but also at the same time pushing more fossil fuels. he wanted to be a climate president and it looks like that agenda in terms of the legislature isn't something joe manchin will let through. annmarie: ambition of the campaign trail versus the reality of entering the white house. this is the real politics he's facing on so many fronts. foreign policy changing because of domestic issues at home. whether it is going to the
kingdom and asking for a lift on the terrace or asking u.s. producers, asking global producers to pump more oil at the same time, they are trying to bring down the use of fossil fuel. right now what you are bringing up is they will not be able to get through those provisions about fighting climate change and a bill because their own senator in their own party will not go forward with it. senator manchin holds so much power. they need him to get this done and it doesn't look like it's going to happen. jonathan: reality and we say it again, it's at the white house this time. anne-marie holden does not stop. it was wonderful there, tom. just a follow the president through the middle east, a real historical element as well, historical element from this president. tom: this guy has been on the road. bavaria, madrid, saudi.
where to next, that's the big question. jonathan: goldman sachs coming in at $2.7 billion on the equity side of things, 2.86 with fixed trading revenue at 3.11. going through these numbers, investment banking revenue coming in at 1.7 9 billion with an estimate of 1.88. goldman coming in a little bit lighter than expected there. kailey: -- tom: there are a number of ways to do this, book is up with nothing shabby, resilient, that's the important word now. now if you don't say resilient, you play. resilient first-hand performance. jonathan: stock up by 1.73%.
tom: critical increased dividend on the common share this year, this is that use of cash development and again the reaffirmation of confidence in having a business looking forward under any uncertainty. jonathan: investment banking, we will guide you through the next few minutes in about five minutes with reaction to these bank numbers from ken leon at cfra with goldman dropping the numbers around the stock part a little bit futures positive by more than 1% on the s&p 500. yield is higher by 3% to 4% with 22. as seen on tv, this is bloomberg. ♪
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a big we run trading revenue they dive on these numbers. hey, sonali basak. only: -- sonali: with the ratio and expected benefits, it's a low work and lighter, a big beat over the fixed income trading desks, 34% jump year-over-year on fixed income trading helping goldman sachs this quarter jumped more than anyone else, more than jp morgan or citigroup by a percentage jump. equities trading beating expectations. where did we fall short of little bit? you said investment banking overall but the art of the business that still one out is advisory. that is where goldman sachs is the rainmaker. the king of wall street.
that business, $1.2 billion, bringing in advisory revenue and a quarter like this is stunning but you were talking about investment banking and where they fall, that's underwriting fees and when they project ahead you are looking at them project a tighter pipeline, a decreased pipeline here when it comes to both net and equities underwriting moving forward with ramifications for these lower asset values. you are seeing the quiet -- declines in the value of their equity portfolio. jonathan: consumer banking, mr. solomon has some form of reaffirmation and victory lap. i know you haven't really had time to look at it, but certainly it is not gloomy. it's consumer banking, business starting, giving up posters? sonali: it's a part of -- giving out toasters? sonali: they are trying to start
partnerships all over. tom: how is the apple going? you know the gossip. sonali: you have to move over to gm with partnerships of long-term clients with what it means for lending books. a lot of the rationale early on, can they continue to grow the business enough? making it a stable and less reliant ship? jonathan: jonathan can purchase the hummer ev? sonali: perhaps one day with buy now pay later. who knows. [laughter] jonathan: you are going to buy now pay later something that big, sonali? tom: welcome to america. [laughter] sonali: the idea is to serve different clients in different ways in that is what they are trying to do, small compared to the rest of goldman sachs. but they are beating on expectations in terms of revenue for the quarter and having to plug away and answer questions about strategic direction,
trading barely up on value today with morgan stanley at 1.4 times the value with james gorman getting a lot of credit here for pivoting the bank to big investments but can david solomon command of same premium in stock markets while they are heading into a tougher economic environment? jonathan: really busy couple of days, what time is the call? sonali: 9:30 i believe. jonathan: we will catch up with you again, nobel. tom? it's up? tom: the consumer banking thing is doing better. let's frame out a two decade thick and thin return for bank of america and goldman sachs. jp morgan, i could have picked other banks as well but this speaks volumes. bank of america is up 2% per year, jp morgan, stellar performance, up 11%. goldman sachs is sort of in
between, the 8% per year, bringing us to ken leon. who does goldman sachs want to be? do they want to be a responsible bank like bank of america? do they want to be wealth management, like morgan stanley? or as william cohan wrote, do they just want to be goldman sachs? ken: goldman will be goldman, it's a great franchise but the second order speaks to your question about the separation on those exposed to credit card, consumer loan and commercial, they were dinged and had to build their numbers back up. bank of america is one of them with morgan stanley having a huge increase like we saw with goldman sachs today. goldman wants to be more like morgan stanley. those businesses are bigger consumer wealth management offsets in decline asset management.
that is a part of their strategy, to expand to get the millennials early in the investment stage and then they move into the private banks. the asset management business was down significantly with the earnings of beat on a lower mark to market pricing, likely to come back in the second half of the year. i like the goldman roof work today, i think it's a good one. they do want to be more like morgan stanley to close the gap from 11 to 14 times pe multiple. responding for the trading in the routine you have to have recurrent repeatable success with stable income that comes really from wealth asset management. kailey: you like the report, clearly the market does, too, but let's talk about where they missed in the debt and equity where it reflected a decline in
industrywide volume with a talk on mergers and acquisition transactions. how do you expect that environment to change in the second half in the rate of these investment banks changing with it. ken: i'm not sure it's going to change in the full year for the first half of the industry but it be 15% and we go into that slow third-quarter, really the holiday season with an uncertain market in europe that is 25% of the rank revenue in investment banking. hard decisions have to be made looking out to 2023 as it relates to staff and current investment banking. those numbers are not going to come back. we came off the sugar high of the last two years of easy money and i think possibly you get some improvement but they are going to have to look at staffing decisions and extend. kailey: we have seen some big
beats from trading and goldman is not alone in that. do you have to continue to see markets be so volatile for a ballast on these things considering what you are saying about the making environment not getting better? ken: you never get rewarded from trading and you can't predict, but volatility serves well in fixed income, currencies, and commodities derivatives. equities, it's kind of lightens up a bit because we have moved from a risk onto risk off environment for investors and institutions and retail. volatility is your friend. especially if you are a smart trader like goldman sachs. jonathan: no one in america is planning to go to europe. these banks, are they going to surprise us with acquisitions in europe? ken: there was a comment earlier about credit suisse and phantom banks.
i think there -- i think they have been successful in gaining wallet shares in full areas of investment banking and for these banks, goldman even today, investing 20% of their income from europe, you don't want to purchase etf, europe will be a frightful case going into these historic winter months. i would say that they have been pleasantly growing organically in europe as the european index kind of withers. ken: morgan stanley. jonathan: how many times have we said that? tom: again, i've said this, i set it at davos. the decade had a major hat tip
to jamie dimon. it there were real challenges inherited on the trading side with the blowup of morgan stanley before maybe, mr. diamond might argue with me on that, but i don't think there was that challenge their. i'm sorry, in the last five years the real victory lap is brian moynihan. people have no understanding of the train wreck that was the cobbling together of the modern bank of america. jonathan: increased volatility and uncertainty, i remain confident in our ability to navigate this environment. you wouldn't expect to hear anything else, would you? tom: you wouldn't end the first thing i'm going to ask you about -- him about his consumer banking with consumer banking having a very constructive pop. jonathan: that your pitch for an interview? tom: no my pitches i really want another character of these
people. i've got to admit it's a blended russian. i'm fascinated how they move july, august. i'm going to assume the last week of august is the new october as they right size into next year amid all of this uncertainty, they don't know what it's going to be like. jonathan: you won't ask him how many rate hikes? tom: not a fan, you are busting my chops. look, the dow is up. [laughter] jonathan: tom loves the interviews with bank executives. nasdaq up by 1.2. quick look at the bond market with yields higher this morning central bank decisions over the next week, the ecb and the doj on thursday, next wednesday, week to 10 days from now. tom: i didn't see this, and i looked, is there a published fragmentation theory or process? jonathan: we have a name but no description on how it will work.
thursday for europe. tom: there was a flowchart, you know, with a pointer? jonathan: rate hike, more than 10 years. they have to try to tell us what the anti-fragmentation is going to do, how it will work with nord stream one coming back on line with no idea how much gas will come through it. tough times for europe. how many times have i said that? goldman, stock up in the premarket. this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: keeping you up-to-date with news from around the world, i'm ritika gupta. bank of america expected to pay a 200 million dollar fine related to a u.s. investigation into the use of unapproved personal devices in line with penalties imposed on other walls banks. finance firms are required to scrupulously monitor communications involving their business, these fines rank among the largest ever.
the russian defense minister ordering part of their forces to destroy ukrainian long-range missile artillery systems and it's not clear how much of a change this represents. troops have been trying for months to destroy ukrainian weapons with allies stepping up arms shipments to ukraine. h&m deciding to wind down their operations in russia. halting all sales there in march after the russian attack on ukraine. they will reopen the russian stores in order to sell remaining inventory at $190 million. the u.k. bracing for a heat this week. temperatures might hit a record-setting 14 degrees so -- 40 degrees celsius, 104 fahrenheit, hotter than the forecast in madrid for in all of their warmest years, having occurred since 2002. annual report blasts of for lease -- blas.
>> i think investors are better off for now in short duration bonds, treasury bills, the bond market is not priced for the fed getting to as high as 4%. neither is the equity market. jonathan: that was wall street week over the weekend hosted by tom and lisa. i tuned in for that one episode. tom: it was great, it was fine. i wore a suit with wider lapels.
looked nice. it worked out. they almost didn't let me on set. jonathan: nice event to give you the keys for the weekend. kailey: really good oh -- tom: really good oboe player, by the way. jonathan: i know. tom: gifted. festival, somewhere. jonathan: is that just for a long weekend? tom: i'm talking to you and you and weston are all on the same page. kailey: i had no idea. jonathan: ok -- jonathan: i had no idea. tom: seriously, nasdaq leads the way. jonathan: i believe that ritik : is going to talk about it. kriti: it seems to be the trade that's going away. last week it was all 100 basis points, it was the base case for nomura and it drops a little bit where the chart of the day is
the odds of a 100 basis point hike to look at that decision in the last five days where you had the odds going 80% and the reasoning is twofold. on the one hand there is an end ration story that's tough to go. 9% cpi, 11% cpi numbers with strong economic data on friday. does it change that scenario through the fact you have wrong retail sales with lower inflation occasions with 75 seeming more likely? jonathan: it was a morning note this morning, thank you so much. the reading on the weekend, wherever you live, it's simple, they nailed it at fos. you wrote about where i went, the sticking point around rent. a huge uproar in new york city
about it. east of manhattan, an apartment listed for a cheap $3500 in a frenzy of 4050. how do we bring down rent in america? >> this disincentivizes homebuilders in an environment where we have an assorted amount of housing supply. very likely over the next year we continue to see rent putting upward pressure on inflation. getting into the data this week it will be focused on housing sales that can to moderate. this is one of the i think consistencies of the fed rate hike activities with their goals and one of the ways in which they are facing in different inflation than they are used to. jonathan: raising important
questions, what is the optimal way for using realized inflation data on a monetary policy decision? lara: to me we are focusing so much on this monthly university of michigan number that in reality is so sensitive to gasoline prices. we are moving too much of it when it went up or down. the market indicators are more contained when it comes to inflation expectations. looking at inflation right now over the next year a bottom up approach is really bad not those dynamics that drive inflation over the long run. that's really taking it apart and when you do that you do not have durable goods. you don't have energy price deflation. it's virtually impossible to craft a story where it comes neatly back down to 2%. so much has to go right to get inflation to behave well. kailey: one of those factors
will be the federal reserve trying to hike rates and bring in demand. the russian really surrounds how much of the economy and the american consumer in particular will be able to tolerate it. big bank ceos say it's fine. we just heard from the cfo a bank of america saying that the spending levels remain high and deliver the highest order ever for spending in the second order and they sounded quite optimistic. how optimistic are you on the u.s. consumer? lara: resilient. this better foundation for growth going forward with households looking at what's driving household spending, a lot of those components are still there but when you back out of inflation it's clearly drowning out other discretionary spending, again a place where inflation by itself is cannibalizing other demand. looking at rate -- retail sales numbers backed out by inflation
impact, real consumption is slowing. it's not in negative territory. that's to the resilience of the consumer as we look at the economy versus the rest of the world. we are still in better standing. we still have better activity. jonathan: does that mean the fed needs to do more? lara: i think they need to go back to neutral, get there and become more data dependent. give these rate hikes time to work on the economy and not be so reliant on the models that are really constructed for prior episodes where we don't have inflation coming from the disruption in the supply chain. all of the unique pandemic driven inflationary factors. i would be in favor -- in favor of fast to neutral getting us to 3% and then taking a minute to see how that data responds and
realizing that we are just in a very different environment. i don't think that there is enough acknowledgment of that from the fed to. jonathan: agreed. when you think about how fast and quickly we have gotten here. that high call from december of 2015 to december 2018, getting to 250. after this week at 250 it has taken how many months? four or five? jonathan: i'm glad you're bringing this up. i had that mango tango it and i can barely think. give me back the lincoln manner again. radio, i'm reading it to you. they were talking just as you were, suddenly we are nearing restrictive territory. is that really in the market as we go from accommodation to something so rare? jonathan: restrictive as they need to be in the inbox, he was not at an
oboe festival. he's been playing a lot of golf, he said. tom: we talked about it, we went back and forth. we agreed that the sonata and a minor, the g sharp in the second measure, you are a minor and you think g and you hit g sharp on top and the second measure, it's tough to do. jonathan: i'm not going to pretend i know you are talking about, not a musician. but you are, tom. david is, too. [laughter] kailey: might be time to join tom's band. jonathan: is that right? there is a guitar in every room on the floor. amps and cables all over the place. there we go. kailey: stacks of books. barrels of tang. jonathan: as a main street bank, pnc has helped over 7 million kids develop their passion for learning. and now we're providing 88 billion dollars to support underserved communities... ...helping us all move forward financially. pnc bank: see how we can make a difference for you.