tv Bloomberg Markets European Close Bloomberg July 20, 2022 11:00am-12:00pm EDT
anna: it is wednesday, the 20th of july. stocks are mixed. the countdown to the close starts right now. quite the countdown is on in europe. this is bloomberg markets: european close, with guy johnson and alix steel. anna: welcome back, everybody. this is bloomberg markets: european close. guy johnson is off today. i'm here in london, alix steel in new york. in london, this is what european
equity markets look like right now. the stoxx 600, pretty flat. lead up and down by what the earnings are doing, both in europe and the united states. to some extent by italian politics. and also what is going on with gas and gas diplomacy. we have the ftse under pressure today. there had been some relief when mario draghi said he did think his coalition could be rebuilt we wait to find out whether the coalition members think the same. that market, down by 1.6%. we keep that nervousness in mind as we head toward the ecb tomorrow. the natural gas price in europe, yesterday we saw it falling, all of the news flow suggesting we are going to see the tap low back on. president putin did say the tops will go back on -- the taps will go back on, but there may be conditions attached. we will wait and see what happens. alix: it feels like the u.s. and
europe are diverging when it comes to the performance of the equity markets. in the u.s. the s&p had a pretty broad rally. we were weaker before, but we have bounced above that level again. the nasdaq 100, very much outperforming, up by 1.5%, led by netflix, as well as amazon. in the s&p you are seeing royal caribbean rising. we haven't seen that kind of reopening winning streak since back in april. on the downside we have baker hughes, down 10%. the company is warning about supply delays for everything from computer chips to electronic air. the reason why this is important is an oil services company, it has a ton of exposure to the lng as well. the supply constraints from the services company all the way through to the production company could be huge. that is why this is a good read through to the energy space as well. anna: absolutely.
let's focus on one of the big stories of the day, and that is around u.k. politics. we just heard the final results can -- results in the battle to get to the last two, and it is a sunak-truss final. rishi sunak is going to go up against the foreign secretary, liz truss in the runoff to succeed boris johnson. we know boris johnson is not staying in one of these two will succeed. will not find out who until early september. these two will spend august traveling the country, trying to court conservative party members, who are the ones who will decide on this. this does not go to the general population within the party. away from u.k. politics, the eu was getting ready for a possible gas supply cut off by russia. it will propose that member nations reduce natural gas use by 15%, starting next month. >> russia is blackmailing us.
russia is using energy as a weapon. and therefore, in any event, whether it is a partial, major cutoff of russian gas, or a total cut off, europe needs to be ready. anna: joining us now is an assurance kia, who can add some detail and and now -- and announcements. it was widely suggested that we see some measures in brought forward. do we have any concrete measures? >> at the moment with the european commission is suggesting his reducing demand over the next eight months, and that is necessary so europe can pay for gas storage. this is a campaign that is ongoing, and the european commission wants to be at 80% by november.
all of that is aimed at making sure power generation and a number of countries reviving coal fires. alix: what is being held up by sanctions? what is vladimir putin alleging he cannot get to restart the pipeline? anna: there was one turbine that was stuck in maintenance. it is the only place in the world it can undergo scheduled work. germany agreed to this. but at the same time there are five other turbines that have to be maintained, and they have to be sent to canada, because at the moment there is nowhere else they can be serviced.
back for repairs. in the worst-case scenario we will see 20% operational level next week, which is lower than when before the pipeline went for -- russia shut down. anna: then i suppose crucial to see, even if it does restart, what level of stockpiles and storage can european gas get to before the winter? thank you very much for joining us. europe's energy crisis is one of the issues facing the european central bank. it meets tomorrow. joining us now is fabio balboni, hsbc's european economist. let me linger on the gas story. the european commission has said they would expect 1.5% to be taken off european growth if the gas taps turned on.
i suppose europe will be planning to take measures, but 1.5% doesn't sound much to a lot of people. what is your expectation for what damage could be done by a switching off of these taps? fabio: we know some countries have put forward emergency plans, so we went through these. if implemented we estimate a bigger possible loss to output, in the region of 2.5%. some countries will be had more -- germany, italy, because they are more reliant on russian gas. there is a huge uncertainty around some of those numbers. the european commission has just put forward a plan, so it is some of that reduction of demand comes through and -- comes through an efficiency gain, of course impact in terms of output losses will be less. if instead we have to go through a hard russianing, and particularly with some energy-intensive firms that have been shut down, the impact is going to be bigger. there is a huge range of
uncertainty, and i believe that is why the european commission is telling countries, let's start doing some savings now so we might have smaller troubles later on. alix: in that scenario can the ecb raise rates? in the way they may want to? i'm hearing increased calls for 50 basis points in september, october, maybe tomorrow. fabio: we don't think so. we think certainly they will try to increase rates while they can, and that is why, including yesterday there was a story suggesting there is a chance they might do 50 basis points tomorrow. but if we do get into a recession in the euro zone, we think it is likely they will have to pause. it will create a big policy dilemma, because this is a shock that potentially could push prices even higher, and it would increase the risk of second run effects. on the other hand, it is also going to slow down the labor market, so it could take off
pressure there. but more importantly, the euro zone always has to look after the weakest link in the area, and as a result of that with a deep recession in the euro zone we think it is unlikely the ecb will continue to plow through with big rate rises through the winter. anna: so if we did see that rationing, how many rate rises do we get in the meantime? we are getting only the first one in what was expected to be a series, due tomorrow. fabio: we could get july, we could get september, depending on when the russian starts to climb. from october the risk in terms of whether the ecb gets going. alix: ok, how can they do that if they are dealing with the european gas pricing -- gas crisis, as well as italian politics? i'm asking because they are supposed to unveil the transition protection mechanism tomorrow. you expect that to be delivered, and how do they do that without creating distortions in the
market? fabio: this is the other big question mark, perhaps the bigger question for tomorrow's meeting. the ecb is about to agree on this anti-fragmentation to a, but one of the premises is that there is a common shock that affects all countries equally, possibly with different implications for the countries. what is happening in italy is not a common shock. to a large extent it is a self-inflicted shock, and as a result some of the accounts are going to argue, we already have a tool for that, the omt. and if italy gets into trouble they will need to sign up to some conditions. so, possible escalation of the political crisis in italy. we are going to know the results of the confidence vote shortly. he could put the ecb in a difficult position tomorrow. anna: we just heard the prime minister is asking for a
confidence vote. we were expecting him to speak this afternoon, then there will be a vote on it. we will see if that coalition is holding together around him. one of our guests earlier was saying this mechanism, this anti-fragmentation tool had to be unlimited to set a five -- to satisfy the markets, but limited to satisfy the courts. how can the ecb crafted thing like that? fabio: it is hard to square the circle in this circumstance, but in terms of the market i think the bigger the number, to some extent, the less likely it is you will have to use it. but then the question, and has to be limited in the sense that there has to be some strings attached. anna: or the omt is going to be cited as an alternative? fabio: exactly. this one will have lighter conditions, possibly along the lines of eligibility criteria, like countries not eating under
the excessive deficit procedure, ring on track with recovery and resilience plans. at least the market knows that any point in time i country can find those conditions, and therefore the ecb can intervene. countries can also lose those credibility -- eligibility criteria. alix: earlier today the italian-germany 10 year spread widened another 10 pips. if we don't get specifics of this anti-fragmentation tool tomorrow, what happens to the market? fabio: i think there is a risk we could see further pressure on the italian spread. the political situation plays a role, but without this anti-fragmentation tool, what we have is flexibility is probably not enough to limit some of this pressure.
against the backdrop of still very high fiscal deficit, and if we go down the rules of what -- of possible gas rationing, there will be more pressure on fiscal deficit. we think that backdrop, probably there will be more pressure on the italian sovereign broadened -- sovereign bond spreads. it is important for the ecb to deliver tomorrow. anna: thanks so much for joining us. nice to see you on here. fabio balboni of hsbc. coming up on this program, we will jump from italian politics to british politics. it is down to two, the race to be the next prime minister has been narrowed down to liz truss and rishi sunak. we will speak to someone supporting rishi sunak, u.k. mp john glen. this is bloomberg. ♪
seemingly struggling with his voice a little bit -- we hope he feels better -- in london yesterday. u.k. foreign secretary liz truss ousted penny morton in the race to be conservative leader. she will compete against the former chancellor, rishi sunak, now over the summer. joining us is john glen, u.k. mp and former city minister. very nice to speak with you. i know you are backing rishi sunak. we want to talk to you about that, but i wonder what you make of the policies put forward by liz truss so far, in particular her tax cut plan. what would you make of those? john: i'm not here to defend or stand up for liz truss, i am she sunak's supporter, and he has a set out clear proposals that deal with inflation, which is the major threat facing the u.k. economy and globally. i think there is alignment between both of them over the desire to have tax cuts, but for
rishi sunak, this has to be on the back of growth, so we can continue to support public services and we will be able to move forward with tax cuts. liz has a different perspective, and that is what we will take out to the united kingdom. anna: i thought you might want to give us your thoughts on what she is proposing? citi has set her proposals would be the greatest risk to u.k., because of what they would do with inflation and institutional disruption. do you agree with that? john: what i know as the city minister for the last four and half years is, look at these proposals very carefully, and they value stability, they value sound public finances, they recognize the inflationary pressure is corrosive to the economy as a whole, and i hope they will see that rishi sunak has a plan to do with that and a plan to deal with growth. we challenge liz to set out how
she is going to deal with those concerns, but my job is to bring as much scrutiny of the former chancellor, rishi sunak's proposals, and recognize over the last three years while he has been dealing with grave difficulties facing the world economy and u.k., he has taken those tough decisions and i think he is well acquainted to take the country forward. anna: we also heard last night from the current chancellor, and he was talking about the possibility of introducing call-in powers over the bank of england. do you think they are necessary, and if we get them does that mean for bank of england independence? john: i was very involved in actually signing off on that bill before i left the building two weeks ago, when i resigned the day after rishi sunak resigned. the call-in power was always going to be an extremely rarely used instrument to force the
regulators to look at something in extreme circumstances. now, i imagine what has happened is because there is no -- we effectively have a caretaker prime minister at the moment, whilst this leadership election is going on. the current chancellor did not feel comfortable taking that forward. but he also said last night that is something he is continuing to consider, and whoever wins the leadership election, they will be a decision made early in september. alix: could the in powers -- the call-in powers be exercised in secret? is a concern independence of the boe if so? john: no, it would not threaten the boe. that would never be the intention. but obviously i am not in government anymore, so it will be for my successors and a new chancellor, if it is a new chancellor, to make those decisions in due course.
i have always said that the bank of england and the financial conduct authority in london do an excellent job, and their independence, having strong regulators, is absolutely instrumental to the success of the financial services sector. that is what i champion while i was in office. alix: i want to take a broad look. there has been strike after strike. it is really hot where you are. there are fires. have seen a wage price spiral and to nhs officials. we are seeing inflation at 40-plus your highs. are we in a summer of discontent right now? john: that is for you to make commentary, it is for me to focus on the issues affecting the country. i acknowledge all of those things. these are tough times for the country, and for the government. the inflation see, that is related a lot to the global
energy supply, and obviously this very, very unusual period of weather is putting strain on public services across the board. it is a challenging time for public services and the government, absolutely. anna: do you think climate has been missing in action on the agenda when it comes to this leadership battle? i know many of the contestants, including the final two, have committed to net zero, but it seems to come with conditionality. especially with liz truss, as to whether that would damage people's livelihoods. john: rishi sunak a at cop, in seeking to make london the first financial center, companies listed on the london stock exchange, and he will continue to try and lead those sorts of conversations across the g7 and g20 should he be elected prime minister in seven weeks time. i'm aware the other candidate has a slightly different view,
and i'm obviously sure her team will be happy to justify that. but from my point of view this is a critical issue, and green finance was an area of my responsibility in government. anna: back on the call-in powers, this is something that has led to a lot of words being written this morning in london. he described this as something -- and you were there at the treasury when this was being crafted -- to be used in rare situations, to four slip -- to force regulators to look at something. are we suggesting that we could see a government call-in a governor and lean on them on interest rates, or would we never get to that point? john: that is not how it was envisaged. it was envisaged as a backstop, emergency option to avoid a government having to do primary legislation. and as i say, the issue now is that i'm not in power, i'm not taking the bill through
parliament. i'm not in a position to verify the intentions of the government. i suggest you speak to somebody and government who can tell you. and i left office it was never envisaged to compromise the independence of the bank of england, which is fundamental to our system in the u.k. anna: thanks very much for your time. john glen, u.k. mp and former city minister. thanks to him for joining us. we will continue to bring you the latest on u.k. politics. this is bloomberg. ♪
anna: welcome back to bloomberg markets: european close. let's take a look at where the markets are trading as we head toward that just four minutes to go. european stocks losing momentum, losing ground as we head through the session. we have been pretty directly -- directionless. european markets seem to be
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anna: welcome back to bloomberg markets: european close. just 23 seconds to go but -- before the end of the european trading day. it has been a dire one, as the map behind me shows. european stocks caught in the doldrums. when it comes to the periphery we are seeing the worst of the lot. the spanish market, the italian market down more than the rest. we are down by 1.7% in the ftse. this is what the session has looked like. and it has been up and down. we started in positive territory, but then succumbed to the downside. before noon in london we got
headlines from the eu with that they are preparing for a winter with no russian gas. despite the fact president putin is going to be turning back on the taps, with conditions, on thursday, that is the planning going on in european capitals. that entrenches that issue firmly in the market's mind. let's get details on where we are on the stoxx 600 right now. no, look at some other assets for you. 1.7 percent lower on the ftse. banking stocks come to the fore as we get nervous about italian politics. we have also seen spreads widening. this was not in the -- this was not the case in the morning when we heard from mario draghi, and he said it was possible to rebuild his coalition. that meant we saw some risk appetite improving toward italian assets. we saw some spreads coming in, but spreads have increased as we got more nervous about where this might lead here in europe. that is where gas prices have been volatile today. they are linked to stocks, it
seems. natural gas prices actually turning around from earlier into a slight gain right now. look at the grr function, which gives us a sector breakdown. technology stocks, that was one of the sectors that was doing badly earlier on today. technology now the best-performing sector. that was one of the sectors we were focusing on at the downside. media, travel, and leisure doing ok and we are evenly divided between gainers and losers. it is different from the u.s. session, u.s. stocks are up by 1.6% on the nasdaq. let's check out a few moves. i will start with volvo, disappointing earnings according to some assessments, but supply chain momentum seems to be improving. unipart is in focus again. are we getting any closer to a bailout there? the market seems to think so. asml disappointed the markets
with what they had to say earlier on about for-your revenue. despite that, the stock up 2.6%. alix: let's do that now. joining us now is shawn coach. walk me through that cut in revenue growth in the first half of this year. what does that mean for the overall chip industry? >> asml cut its revenue growth guidance in half for this year, not because the company is experiencing a problem with demand from its customers. a cut its sales estimate because fast-tracking of shipping of its chip-making machines is leading to delayed sales recognition. the company began skipping some final testing in its factories last year to speed up delivery. this meant clients get their machines more quickly, but asml has to delay booking sales for those shipments until formal customer acceptance. and more fast shipments are
happening because of an acceleration of supply chain constraints, which the company said is also happening in the third quarter. they expect supply chain issues to continue throughout the remainder of this year, to mean in the second half of this year asml will see more fast shipments than they plan to come -- planned, so they will have more revenue than anticipated. anna: it all comes down to some sort of -- is this to do with accounting? is this to do with matching rules and when you are allowed to recognize the revenues? you may have received at the revenues but you are not able to recognize them yet? what are we talking about here? cagan: exactly. it is a bit of a counting -- of an accounting technicality, the initial reaction was negative. shares of asml dropped after the earnings result, but then shares were and rose as much as 4.4% that is because asml has a monopoly in the market for the
latest advanced lithography equipment needed to make chips that are faster, cheaper, and more efficient. and analysts say the company will continue to benefit from the structural growth of this market this year and beyond. so it seems the decline in the stock early in the morning created the buying opportunity for some investors. anna: also hanging over this business is geopolitics. this business is so significant. it makes those giant left auger fee machines, supply, the chipmakers so important in all of the tech we buy. they are subject to the ebbs and flows of geopolitics. where are we at the amount of pressure coming from washington to sell less to china? that was a big talking point. cagan: asml shares have been under extra pressure in recent weeks as the u.s. pushes to ban asml -- to -- pushes the
netherlands to ban asml from selling to some governments. the dutch government confirmed u.s. officials are seeking to expand an existing moratorium on the sale of systems to the asian nation. it has yet to agree to any additional restrictions, but we know asml are pros -- opposes the band because the equipment is already a mature technology. anna: things for joining us. cagan koc with the latest on asml. let's see where we are with european stocks. let's have a look as we head toward a break. we can tell you we are weaker, down by .2% on the stoxx 600. the dax down .2%, and the cac down .3%. this diversions between what we
are seeing in europe and the u.s. quite marked today. alix: we will see that diversions and carry that through if you join me on the cable show. that is at 12:00 p.m. in new york on digital radio. you can go to apple, spotify, wherever you get your podcast. coming up, it is the third like in this european story. survival of mario draghi's government is in chaos. we are going to get the latest on what it means from carlo cottarelli, formerly of the's fiscal department. this is bloomberg. ♪
vladimir putin has a europe will start getting gas through a key pipeline, but the russian leader has some conditions. says unless a dispute over sanctioned parts is resolved, that gas flow will be curbed. europe has proposed cutting gas use over 50%. in the u.k. the largest trade union has threatened to strike after the government offer below inflation rate pay raises. they cover about 2.5 million doctors, teachers, and other public sector workers. one worker called another kick in the teeth for the national health service. in italy prime minister mario draghi had a message for those in his coalition. they have to decide whether to get behind him and allow him to govern the country. >> if you want to stay together, build this pact right from the beginning. ritika: the former ecb chief was drafted to lead the country some
17 months ago. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. alix: thanks so much. let's stick with italian politics. they're looking at a live shot here of the italian parliament. francine lacqua is in rome with the latest. it is great to see you. does mario draghi design -- resigned tonight or get the vote? francine: he could. a lot has happened in the last eight hours. mario draghi said these are my conditions, i stay, we move forward, then the party -- parties in his coalition's start saying, i only do this if you give me this, and frankly this is mario draghi as we know him, when he was in charge of the ecb. this is an uncompromising mario draghi. he said you either back me, my government with all of the coalition partners, which means we agree to the reforms, or i'm out. we are expecting about in the
next couple of hours. for the moment the session is still ongoing. we understand the heads of all the parties are meeting to try and figure out what their next move is. anna: we have come along way, haven't we? and still we don't know the answer. meanwhile, italian assets whipsawed by the news flow. what does this mean for the italian economy and europe? francine: the italian economy needs someone who will go through with the reforms. first of all, we need to have in their eyes the ecb that supports italy. if you look at this anti-fragmentation tool or whatever the ecb wants to call it, which is something that doesn't talk about fragmentation, but tries to narrow that spread between the german and italian bonds, it is something italy needs and will use the most. so the ecb needs to have comfort in whoever governs italy that they will go through with reforms and that they are not allowing a free political path,
someone from exempt -- someone for example from the left or right, doesn't go through with the reforms or pension reforms. the other thing we tend to forget is in december there is a big tranche of money italy has from the eu under conditions, and those are going through the reforms. if mr. mario draghi resigns, we do not know who is elected, you don't know whether the reforms will get passed in time. italy may not have access to that all-important money coming from the eu fund. anna: francine, thank you very much. let's stick with this theme. how well italian politics effect the country's outlook? let's talk to carlo cottarelli, former director of the imf's skill affairs department. he is now director of the italian public finances observatory at universita cattolica. let me start with the obvious
questions around -- francine's italian, clearly much better -- other mario draghi stays in his post. carlo: gloria draghi has essentially drawn a line, basically said either you go with this government or i'm not going to be ready to form another government. the center-right has argued, we are not going to go ahead with the current coalition because it includes the five-star movement, which are unpredictable. last week they refused to vote confidence on mario draghi. at this point it is neither mario draghi, it is not the center-right, there will only be a solution which is elections. alix: i was reading article after article about how businesses, investors, employers, people are writing to
mario draghi, begging him to stay on. it is in part why he came back with this ultimatum. if he resigns, regardless of what actually happens, what is the sentiment hit that italy could take? carlo: the news is not from the point of view of markets. this morning after mario draghi, this bread, -- climb to 200. after the most recent development it went down to 120. markets are not going to be very good. we see with the ecb can do in terms of this anti-fragmentation instrument. anna: i know that italy has a history of technocratic governments. i think you lead i one for a brief period. are we going to get away from that in italian politics at some point? carlo: yes, i think that the
political parties are fed up with the technocrats. it is not the issue -- in government i was nominated, designated by the minister, but then the government started. this is actually the first technocratic government since 2012, when monfils was in government. -- monfils was in government. alix: the ecb tomorrow, if they hike, that would hurt italy, however they don't want to finance political instability in italy. and they are notoriously, italy has not been good at spending the money they have gotten from europe.
can the ecb do to help italy but not enable italy? carlo: in terms of spending money, i think during the last 18 months the money we received from the european union was spent on all of the targets, that were met one by one. what the ecb should do, i don't know, honestly. it is a very difficult spot, because they need to announce something that is sufficiently strong to essentially prevent an attack. it is not -- without conditions attached to it. in 2012 mario draghi managed to do this because he announced something which allowed essentially infinite support as large as needed in support of a
single country. but that required conditionality's to a program of european stability. nobody at the ecb now is proposing the country goes to the esm in the current situation. so they will have to announce something strong, or announce something week. anna: where would you suggest that the ecb --we will not hear this from the ecb, they will not want to talk about the level of spread that will get them involved in the market, but do you have any clues as to the level of spread? you have clearly been watching it narrow and wide and in today's session. we have seen it much whiter than now, so where are the worrying levels the ecb will have in mind? carlo: i think that the basic idea of markets now is there something in the neighborhood between 200 and 250 would be acceptable by the ecb.
the problem is that if you go beyond that you may get into a snowballing effect. actually, even something close to 250 good. last two weeks the spreads started rising, and that caused the ecb to come out with an extraordinary announcement of more flexibility in their new will of bonds coming to maturity. they can be replaced by, for example, an italian bond. and by the announcement of the acceleration of the work on this anti-fragmentation tool. now the issue is to deliver something that is perceived to be strongly enough, and in that case the spread will remain in or about 230. alix: are any conditions set
right now that could trigger an -- another sovereign debt crisis like what we saw 10 years ago? carlo: i hope it does not happen, of course. the good thing is that, the amount of italian public debt in the hands of financial markets has actually declined a lot since the end of 2013. because now the main creditor of italy is actually the ecb itself. the ecb itself will hold at the end of the year, which means basically now about a 29% of italian government debt. that was held, but still there are risks. obviously there will be dangerous. and now a recession is a danger. i do not see a recession now,
alix: wes stocks, really rallying around the highs of the session. the nasdaq up 1.7%, led by netflix, led by amazon. >> the nasdaq really outperforming here, but look at what is not outperforming. that home sales data, really not helping him. we had that massive run-up in the housing market. is it starting to cool? you do see the toll brothers,
down 1.3%, but take a look at this -- la-z-boy, not taking as much of a hit, still down about .6 percent. that is not the only thing moving. remember, there is a lot of geopolitical chaos right now. that is going to be a big topic of conversation. want to keep an eye on things like the s&p 500, the nasdaq as well. this is significant. i kind of bull market. are we setting the stage for that? this is significant as we talk about the breath conversation. member, yesterday had a lot of volume, a lot of conviction buying to the upside, but due to the envelop -- do the evaluations support that? that's why you have calls saying, this bounds, maybe it is a bear market bounce. that is something we are going to keep an eye on, especially when we talk about the geopolitical chaos. the oil story is where you see the likes of baker hughes, which had that major russian right
off, taking the shares. oil is down a little bit, what is that a consequence of dollar strength? we don't know, but it is hitting the stock market hard, adding to that defensive trait. let's bring it full-circle to the geopolitics, the euro continues to move as we see that fluctuation in italy and ahead of the ecb tomorrow as well. anna: one of the possible outcomes for the euro, depending on what the ecb announces. could it be difficult to understand, to untangle the policy from the ecb tomorrow? that could be important when it comes to looking at fx moves. kriti gupta with the latest on the markets. here is what we are watching out for in the next 24 hours. today earnings after the bill, tesla, united airlines. italian senate's confidence vote on mario draghi taking place. president biden gives remarks on tackling climate crisis. alix: tomorrow we have the ecb meeting, the boj meeting, and a ton of earnings. watch what happens with nord
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