tv Bloomberg Surveillance Bloomberg July 22, 2022 6:00am-7:00am EDT
>> it would take a lot for the ecb to stop normalizing. >> the ecb is back into dangerous territory here. >> they are hoping they can hike without triggering an even deeper downturn, but that is an open question. >> the risk of the markets as we talk ourselves into a recession. >> the ecb is in an incredibly tough place. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: live from new york city, for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance"
on tv and radio. alongside tom keene, i am jonathan ferro, here with kailey leinz. futures down. it is the end of forward guidance. tom: we can talk about that and bonds forward next week to a very important fed meeting. but we have to do -- what i see on the data screen right now is the shocking speed that we see in curve inversion. absolutely stunning how we revisit new, greater inversion. jonathan: what i see in economic data in europe, it is dreadful. pmi a downside surprised here that is not what you want to see the day after a for the basis point hike. socgen still calling this one unbuyable potentially through the rest of the year. tom: that is on the gdp as well they have become dependent perhaps after what we saw
yesterday. obviously, the market not impressed. the surge in euro terms right around. it is about economic data, wrapped against, as lagarde mentioned yesterday, original politics. tom: -- jonathan: isn't it good news we stop pretending what will happen in europe? tom: you know where i am on this. jonathan: what do you make of snap chat coming out and saying no forecast, no guidance, we do not know where we are going either? tom: i just said to matt miller that the conflation of tech is tech is ohlone. there is profit-making tech and story stocks. jonathan: can we take a macro signal from the outcome of snap chat and earnings? kailey: you might be able to in what they are talking about is advertisers pulling up because the macroeconomic environment deteriorating. are they going to be a bellwether for twitter, meta, alphabet? also what i thought interesting
is they are slowing hiring. how many times have we heard that over the last couple weeks? jonathan: i have to say, sin't that the goal, the objective of fed policy? job openings to be reduced, just take the man out of the labor market? kailey: in theory, esp the question is are they acting so aggressively that by the time data catches up see not just a cooling but outright destruction in the labor market? as we talk about where fed funds need to get to, where does unemployment get -- need to get to? jonathan: the one thing in corporate comms that worried me was at&t, coming out and saying people effectively are delaying paying their bills. that is some ring -- something worth paying attention to. tom: i would agree that is 18 leave. i would also say they have a little bit of competition. i just take massive issue of media conflating snap with name your big tech stop making good
billion -- gajillions of money. kailey: we've seen it in meta already. apple privacy changes have been weighing on that stock for a long time. jonathan: i will whip through the price action. the nasdaq, lower by half. the yield and six basis points. euro-dollar 101.55. kailey: i will try to get myself out of the doghouse with tom keene. we have a lot going on. just about 25 minutes from now, we will get a decision from the bank of russia. we have already seen 10.5 percentage points of rate cuts from april to june. we affect another 50 basis points today, although our economists at bloomberg
intelligence think the central bank will raise forecasts -- what a turnaround compared to when they first invaded ukraine. we will get results from twitter -- just results, not a call, because that is all the drama with elon musk it will he be forced to buy the company? looking at a share price of $39. does not look like the market believes it. but we will pay attention to the advertising and daily active users. are they falling victim to the same forces as snap, advertising slowing down? at 9:45 eastern, we get the pre-lim read on pmi's for the month of july. we expect manufacturing to fall to the 52 level, but we have seen a string of downside surprises in economic get over the last 24 hours or so, in part why we are seeing a big rally in the bond market, so will we see follow-through on the is in
europe when it comes to those numbers later on? jonathan: in looking at treasuries, yields lower by 5 or 6 basis points. this range we have traded in in the last 24 hours, the high off yesterday's session. jim caron joins us, chief fixed income strategist at morgan stanley. with that a major economic data released -- what do you make of that? jim: we are at an inflection point. markets are trying to figure out if they need to follow the nominal growth or the real growth area nominal growth, which has been reasonably positive, but when you adjust for inflation, the real data is looking very weak. we are seeing pmi's start near critical threshold levels, and all the survey data is suggesting that. a lot of cash in the system right now. people are skeptical as to where to go. i think the bond markets have been placed where they sold off,
yields have gone up, and it is just attracting some buyers at this point, because there is a lot of uncertainty out there. tom: you go right where i am thinking about, which is the sugar high of inflation. that would be tang and the sugar how you get from it. there is a point after the third tang where it does not work. discuss the nominal joy we are seeing now versus the realreal of 2023. jim: it is interesting kate if we put a couple data points together -- we all know wages have been rising, nominal wages have been rising. but if you look at real wages, adjusted for inflation, they are down 3.4% year-over-year. we recently had a retail sales number that was a month over month number that was pretty big, positive 1%. we also had, in the same week, a cpi number that was 1.3%. when you subtract the 1.3 from
1, retail sales are actually at -.3%. people are starting to buy less goods but they are paying more money this will start to weigh on inventory adjustments which will weigh on gdp. the real data is actually telling us -- forgive the pun -- the real story, which is that things are starting to slow down more materially than what many in the markets are thinking, and certainly the nominal data does suggest. kailey: what does that mean for the fed? what they are trying to achieve his demand slow down. if that is already starting, does that mean it does not have to go as far? jim: that is the crux of the matter get i think they will go as far. the fed is hiking interest rates into a known slow down in the markets. this is something that they do not normally do. i think they only did this once in the last 50 years, and it was
in the 1970's here this is almost unprecedented. the fed sees they have to bring down inflation at this stage. i leave they are willing to go 75 basis points in july, possibly 50 to 75 in september. they will keep going up to 3.75%, or maybe even a little bit higher, by early next year. despite the fact that we are slowing, are we slowing enough to actually get inflation to where they want it to be? i think the answer to that at this point is no, they are not. so they are willing to be aggressive even in the face of this weakness. jonathan: what do you make of the easing financials? jim: i am a little mixed, because i think people are very happy about the fact that maybe interest rates have stopped going up. look at what is going on along the yield curve.
and i understand that, when interest rates though low, people think they will be somewhat stable, people start to move into growth equity, and that starts to bring up equity prices, high yield starts to come down, people start to look yield because they believe the thrust higher into interest rate is over. what they are not taking about enough is why our rates going down? they are not going down for good reasons. they are going down because the economy is slowing. i see this as a bit of a sugar high. i see this as ok, let's go buy something, but why our rates going down, maybe i should rethink this. so i am skeptical on this rally at this point for those reasons. jonathan: after the news conference finished yesterday with president lagarde, what did you and your team say together? the first words that left your mouths, what were you thinking? jim: i have no idea what is going on.
[laughter] it was very little detail put in this transmission protection instrument that really made it seem they just open the door to say we will hike interest rates, but we have this other tool in case there is a problem, and it is a big tool, do not worry about it, we got it. the ecb clearly wants to live in the markets. tom: in bloomberg opinion -- "tpi -- to protect italy." jonathan: great to catch up with you. that seems to be the take away after that ecb news conference -- people's heads spinning. my head was about to explode. if i hear cpi too many times today, i think it will go that way. tom: an acquaintance of a family member had a monograph from 1945 in oxford of john monet. nothing has changed since then.
nothing more in the political effusion off the memory of world war ii. i thought lagarde did well given all the conflicting politics she faces. jonathan: the euro weaker. futures down a little bit after a decent run at gains. from new york, this is bloomberg . ritika: keeping up-to-date with news from around the world with the first word, i am ritika gupta. u.s. social media giants are on track to lose $49 billion since yesterday's close. concerns on the outlook for online advertising for the whole sector appear that sees a major slowdown. commerce secretary gina raimondo warns the u.s. cannot relying on taiwan for semi conductors in an to an annual security forum. she called the $50 billion
package a sputnik moment for america. in the u.k., a new poll shows foreign secretary liz truss extending her lead over former chancellor rishi sunak to be the next prime minister. in a pool of conservative party members, 62% said they would vote for truss, 38% went for sunak. turkey says an agreement to allow shipments of ukraine's grain will be signed in istanbul today. ukraine, russia, and the u.n. will sign the accord. ukraine's grain shipments have been largely stalled as ports have been blocked since the russian invasion. one of elon musk's top executives at tesla the subject of an internal investigation. bloomberg learned omead afshar is being looked at at his role in a plan to purchase hard-to-get construction materials. he runs the company's texas
key ecb interest rates by 50 basis points and approved the transmission protection instrument. we expect inflation to remain undesirably high for some time owing to continued pressure from energy and food prices and pipeline pressures. jonathan: go back to bed and get under the covers. the ecb hiking interest rates. or maybe go back to sleep, because that is what it felt like at the news conference at times yesterday. tom: it was not a snooze fest. i hung on every word. jonathan: i bet you were. did you even carry that news conference on radio? tom: we did -- jonathan: how much of it? tom: maybe 90 seconds. there was a lot of good comment across all of business media. what martin arnold did was great. as we heard from jim caron, it is a big "so what" -- it needs to be tested.
jonathan: i think bfa said from whatever it takes to whatever yesterday. on the nasdaq, lower 0.6%. down six basis points on the 10 year stateside. the button market -- let me tell you what 10-year boone -- bunds are. the two-year down 19 basis points. the pmi out of europe today were terrible. let's be up front. they were just bad. tom: 23 basis points on the german two-year is what i see. it shows the transatlantic divide we have got paid we have a divide in washington as well. bloomberg's joe mathieu briefs is now kid i do not want to do the postmortem on this conference. everyone is doing this. everyone has got a political view. i want you to answer for our domestic and international audience, what is the so what?
where was this in september or december or in the history books? joe: if you're talking about the january 6 committee, come september, partly we could get more hearings. we understand last night, from members of the committee, more witnesses are coming forward, more evidence. liz cheney says it is the dam beginning to break. timing is a real problem. we were supposed to get a final report from this committee imminently. last night was supposed to be the grand finale. now we know it is not. they will drop an interim report. what happens if republicans take control of the house in november? they will dissolve this committee and turnaround and investigate the investigators. tom: joe, you're really good at this. you get outside the beltway -- it is hard to believe, but he has not taken in all the kool-aid yet of d.c. what's the "so what" of this in
the history books, other than democrats feel this way, republicans feel that way? joe: if you're talking about sedition and witness tampering, if that is provable, that is a big deal. the committee has two purposes. one is to that the record straight gave you are a history buff. we want to know what actually happened to keep it from happening again. separately, there is the matter of legal justice. it is unclear how, if, this committee actually dovetails with that investigation. liz cheney wants to provide information. the chairman says that is not their job, they are just to set the record straight, merrick garland can do what he wants. kailey: to that point, and you mentioned liz cheney, she is feeling the heat from deviating from her party. at least adam kinzinger is not seeking reelection. joe: with regard to her own
race, that is its own thing in wyoming. people are wondering how may democrats may vote for liz cheney. but she could be in trouble. she could also be setting herself up for a presidential run down the road. with regard to the midterms themselves, we started this segment talking about interest rates and inflation, and that is where the conversation will begin that is where decisions will be made at the about box. it will likely not be driven by what this committee is doing. kailey: obviously the other needs that hit the wires yesterday was president biden tested positive for covid-19. i remember when president trump tested positive in october of 2020. that was a completely different moment in the pandemic and in the news cycle. it was all because talk about for days because we did not have advanced vaccination and treatments. it seems not anyone is paying attention. joe: you are dealing with an almost 80-year-old man, and there are concerns about his health, but the white house was
quick to kick out images and video of the president to reassure the world that he is fine. he is isolated in the residence, apparently working hard. every image he is behind the desk and doing something. that is the way it goes. the messaging from the white house is really striking, as we look at where we were a year ago today. joe biden was in a cnn town hall, and he said that he will not get covid if you take the vaccine. fact checkers played with that at that time. yesterday in the white house reaping room, they said we expected this would always happen with regard to the president being infected. we never heard that before, not directly. but also, sooner or later everyone will get it care that is the first time i've heard that from a white house official, certainly in this administration, that was partially elected to beat covid. jonathan: joe mathieu, we will check in with you. if there was a time in this
pandemic -- tom: i think it is really bad medicine. if you get vaccinated, that does not diminish the opportunity to enjoy covid. what that means is, when you get sick, you get much less sick, particularly with the double boosters. the president gets covid and everyone goes nuts -- i got covid, i do not even hear from you -- jonathan: yes, you did. [laughter] tom: ok, you sent me a fruit basket. other than that -- jonathan: i checked in multiple times. don't even start. nasdaq will s&p, we are down. the weakness is something we have to sit on. down three quarters of 1%. the data around europe is just bad pure for those people out there saying you will talk us into a recession -- i am not talking anyone into anything. i'm just looking at economic data -- it speaks pretty loudly. tom: can we get ready for the
"real yield" this afternoon? i just want a victory lap -- -0.25 -- 25 basis points of inversion since about 4:00 a.m. this morning. this is the banner. the banner says "halfway to priya misra." i do not think i would ever say that is quickly. jonathan: she was looking for -40. i think maybe she still is. arguably because rates have to go up more and the front end will suffer. futures down one third of 1%. from new york this friday morning, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ." ♪
snap is a paper plane in a windstorm. you want to look to things like google and facebook. the bond market right now. big range on a 10-year treasury. pushing 3.1% at the highs yesterday. look out for the pmis later this morning. look after pmis earlier this morning in europe. check out how europe is trading. germany. yields in. 22 basis points on a 10-year after the ecb just hiked 50 basis point. the euro -.3%. the data out of europe ugly. if i had to pick a word, ugly. tom: i will get it out on twitter. jon, real gdp is totally different, radically different than the united states. inherent dynamism isn't there
even though everyone we know is going to paris. jonathan: the number one shock, tom. i know you are complaining because you want to go to paris. the number one shock could be a negative supply shock. what could happen, given the communication from the ecb, you get a shut off of gas from russia and the ecb ends of hiking rates because of the inflation story? tom: i'm data dependent. jonathan: they are with you, totally. you understand what they do with the data. you have a decent understanding of their reaction function. it is all meaningless. tom: i look at reaction function, just like i look at the sharp risk-free rate. what is that rate right now? jonathan: in germany, 1%, if that is what you are talking about. tom: your short-term paper is an
anchor. i'm about ready to go negative in germany. jonathan: we are getting there. tom: are you done or what? jonathan: you keep bringing stuff up some giving you numbers. tom: i want a ticket so i can watch the "real yield" this afternoon. they have shares lined up like three rows deep. it's like a foo fighters concert. you have the gallery going and everybody wears the real yield ticket. they take it home. jonathan: it is going to be a hot one. tom: let's go to brian levitt who has a really sharp scenario-based midyear view. invesco does that so well. not on term with emily wilkins of michigan state. they walk by each other carefully. i want to go to your wonderful midyear review and scenario
analysis. how do our listeners and viewers do scenario analysis given uncertainties, including more? -- war? brian: look at it from the cycle is challenged. we know high inflation and policy tightening raises the prospect of a pretty significant slowdown. even indicators of the bond market suggesting a contraction. a mild recession is certainly in the offing. at the same time the market has priced in a decent amount of it. you are starting to see inflationary pressures and expectations come down, which could start to provide some clarity on policy and set the stage for a recovery. tom: let's get to july 27. you have a fabulous chart
showing the distinctions of the central banks, who is tightening, who is not. how long is jerome powell after what we saw yesterday with christine lagarde? brian: policy makers in the western world are going to need to do more unfortunately to bring inflation down. i heard you talk about this. they are raising rates into a slowdown in the united states. unfortunately in europe even worse than that. one place you are seeing policy ease is china. china had back-to-back rough years in the market because of the regulatory environment and zero covid. easing policy in china is a tailwind. we are still in the western world grappling with the headwind of ever tighter policy here. kailey: talking about the headwinds they are hiking into a weaker economic environment. the bond market is having a war with itself. yields keep trying to go up
because rates are going to go up. that concern around a potential recession or slowdown is keeping yields capped. what is your assumption about seeing the peak in yields? do people want to be buying volunteer? brian: i believe we have probably seen the peak in yields. when you're in a recovery, and expansion, interest rates move higher. equity values adjust. what you see now is short rates that have moved up a lot since last fall. they may need to go a bit higher depending on where the fed goes. long rates start to stabilize and come in amid expectation of lower inflation and slowing economic growth. investors see their statement. think of it in terms of 60/40. the 40 did not work this time. we had a rate adjustment. i would not be selling my government bonds or quality
municipal bonds. kailey: is growth and equities also your friend in a slowdown? brian: yeah, defensive higher-quality growth businesses tend to do well in a slowdown. it is the recovery expansion phase where you want to be very cyclical when you slow down more economically sensitive parts of the market. it tends to do less well. investors piling into things like energy probably doing it somewhat near the high. more growth businesses tend to do well when they don't require such economic activity. tom: strategies have to write about a mini bull market. 12 months trailing. s&p and dow above correction level. they are down 8%, 7%, 12 months trailing. there's a point you have to blinken say should i be more in
equity -- blink and say should i be more in equity? where should we be in the mix? brian: it depends on the time horizon. if you're buying, you're probably not all that unhappy a couple of years from now. do we have room to grow? i suspect we do. we have not traditional bottom indicators flash, call ratios higher. there's probably a bit more room to go. we have valuation adjustment. now we likely need to adjust for some earnings pressure. the way i tell people, if you think of the average peak and trough decline associate with recession in the last 10 recessions, 31%. the s&p to 23.4%. we have done a good amount of what the average is. averages lie. i don't think any of us expect severe recession like that. if it is a more mild variety,
there may be room to go. you don't have to get to the bottom is an investor. you can buy halfway or more than halfway through and for long-term investors that pays off well. kailey: let's talk about the room to go for the dollar. it's heading for the worst week since may. brian: the dollar has responded to a move by the european central bank. they will be trading. the euro will be a big part of it. ecb raising rates more than expected leads to an adjustment in the dollar. the currency will flow to where it is treated best. the united states, yeah, we have some challenges on the economic front but certainly not as severe as what you are seeing in europe. i think the dollar is likely to be strong relative to larger trading partners.
jonathan: wake up early, do an interview with us, go play golf at 11:00. brian: i play golf with clients. tom: 200 basis points per year, you know. he's busy. jonathan: you go play golf with clients. perfect time to go play golf with clients. tom: could you see me on a golf course? jonathan: you caddied, didn't you? tom: big time. where lee trevino won the u.s. open a few years ago. there are scenes in "cash check" -- caddyshack" that are hilarious. they would pay me to leave the golf course. jonathan: a lot of money and that? caddying? tom: i could keep it from nelson rockefeller. i was rich. it was in my youth. jonathan: many years ago. tom: supply and demand.
it's absolutely crazy. it has been really interesting. cutter airlines -- qatar airlines is cheaper than new york to paris. i find that just saying everything about the band. jonathan: business class. you did not specify. this raises a question about the back half of this year. this year they can charge what they want and people are buying tickets. i don't know if they can repeat that act later this year. tom: i had the buy to british columbia yesterday. it was on the edge of reasonable. jonathan: it came down a bit? tom: what can i say? air kirby is united airlines. they have been good. jonathan: are we naming the
airlines after the ceo now? tom: i got them in two hours. i thought that was pretty good. jonathan: futures down point percent -- .2%. tom: my luggage is in des moines. jonathan: this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: keeping you up-to-date with news from around the world, the january 6 committee says the former president ignored calling off the mob storming the capitol. members cast the inaction as a desperate final ploy in his struggle to hold onto the presidency. the white house is confident president biden will avoid the worst of the coronavirus thanks to vaccines in a therapeutic drug. the president is it. see mild symptoms but has begun taking -- has begun having mild symptoms.
the republican candidate for governor in new york state was attacked at a campaign event. a man. drag him to the ground before being subdued no one was hurt. -- dissolve parliament and officially called following mario draghi's move. turkiye says ukrainian grain will be in istanbul. grain shipment have been stored as the ports have been blocked since the russian invasion, leading to an increase in world hunger. amazon started delivering packages to u.s. customers using the first of 100,000 electric vans from rivian. amazon hopes to have the vans
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>> i'm doing well. getting a lot of work done and continuing to get it done. thanks for your concern. keep the faith. jonathan: the president has covid, and is not the news of it it would have been two years ago. futures negative on the s&p 500. on the nasdaq we are down by 131%. -- one third of 1%. the flow is going into treasuries. bunds aggressively lower. hero week -- euro weaker.
data ed of europe not great at all. downside surprise. downside surprise. pmis at 9:45 eastern time. tom: it is way better than what president trump confronted. maybe age, maybe health, but verlin says well. lauren sauer is an expert in this field, nebraska medical center. i want to go to our youth. my mother dragged me for boosters. no big deal. there was whooping cough, tetanus, diphtheria, tdap, all the rest of it. why is our fear over a covid booster shot so different than our fear over getting a diphtheria booster shot? lauren: to be honest i think a lot of it is politics and the conversation on how the vaccine was developed. it is rare we see the development of a vaccine play
out in the public like this one has. we are seeing every minutia of the path. people are paying such close attention to the data that are not scientists, not clinicians, and they are candy got misinterpretations into social media that are not quite accurate. i think changing the conversation about how vaccines are made and why we use them is important. bringing the trust back to the process. explaining what happened and how things are developed and getting people back on track with the vaccines you mentioned. a lot of kids have been delayed getting their childhood vaccines because of the covid pandemic. bringing everyone back up to speed and getting the population healthy again. tom: what would you like to see in terms of action from politicians to get us back to where we don't die from diphtheria in one week like members of my family did in about 1905? lauren: a huge piece is
messaging the process and why it is important. we need to have all of our politicians come out and talk about why vaccines are important for their children. we can't have this vitriol, this dialogue playing out in the public sphere. recognizing scientists have a higher level of training, clinicians have a higher level of training than the average politician on how vaccines work, why we use them. the opinion of an individual, and let's just say a member of congress, is different than a physician researcher trained for 20 plus years to develop these vaccines, roll out the trials, and understand the data on how they work. kailey: as we talk about the messaging, what a lot of people see as i'm vaccinated but i still have a positive case. this specially when you talk about a new variant that defeats
all immunity, does that raise the question of getting more boosters into arms or just essentially saying we have to resign ourselves to the fact everyone will contract the virus, it's just a matter of how bad it is for them. lauren: it's honestly somewhere in between. we have a few missteps on the science side potentially talking about sterilizing community early in the pandemic because he did not know how the data would look. expecting people to change their viewpoint from i will get this vaccine and will need a vaccine and get sick to the vaccine is protecting you but it's protect you from getting really sick and possibly ending up in the hospital or dying. that conversation is continuing to play out. eventually when we get the vaccine level really high in the population the mild covid is what we will start to see. people will be vaccinated. probably on a regular vaccine schedule and it will feel like
the way we deal with the flu. to be honest people get really sick and die every year of the flu. research continues on how to make better flu vaccines, how to make universal flu vaccines. it will probably follow the same path. kailey: what is the appropriate policy response in a world where people are not getting as sick but still getting sick and can be contagious? does that mean masks forever? you're out of the office for at least five days if you test positive? howdy things have to evolve in that scenario? lauren: the first step is we still have to do a lot of work to get the vaccination rate up. for mining people -- reminding people if they have got vaccinated, they have to get boosters. pushing the federal government to bring that forth does to people -- fourth does to people. -- dose to people. as we grow vaccine immunity we
will see less masks. i think masking especially indoors is quite appropriate. tom: are we completely to where this virus is endemic? it is here, get over it. it is not moving. lauren: i think it is here. i think it is endemic. we are talking about endemic like it is something we resign ourselves to accept. in reality we have lots of endemic diseases we fight tooth and they'll. tom: -- tooth and nail. tom: give us any sample. lauren: maybe not in the united states we don't talk them in the same way. across the world we fight endemic diseases because they still cause significant morbidity and mortality. doing all we can to stop covid spread and fight covid to protect our people is really important. even if the disease becomes endemic. jonathan: lauren sauer,
wonderful to hear from you as always. we have missed you. university of nebraska medical center's lauren sauer. i was lost in a new article out by mohamed el-erian. it is punchy. a long list of what the federal reserve needs to do to be remembered by economic historians as having unnecessary because the u.s. recession, having destabilized the global economy recovering from covid, having unsettled financial stability and contributed to debt stress in fragile developing countries. that is the conclusion of his peace this morning. -- piece this morning. tom: the thing he brings up i think in august is em. i'm watching every morning some of the em unravelings. you never know how they
correlate. this is a way for the ineptitude of sri lanka and major cultural issues there. on the back end of that where he mentions em i think he is spot on. jonathan: special coverage next wednesday. i'm pleased that announced mohammed will be joining us. that has been confirmed to look out for him on wednesday. tom: can i ask him a question? jonathan: you can talk if you are polite. futures down .2%. the euro weaker. down six basis points. 281.42. from new york this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> it would take a lot to stop mobilizing for oil. >> pretty dangerous territory. arguably some policy mistakes. >> they hope they can hike without triggering a deeper downturn. >> the risk of the markets is we talk ourselves into a recession. >> the ecb is being tough. all central banks are at the mont