Skip to main content

tv   Bloomberg Surveillance  Bloomberg  July 22, 2022 8:00am-9:00am EDT

8:00 am
>> a bit more weakness, cracks and consumer housing market. >> the inflation picture in
8:01 am
europe and globally focuses central blank -- central banks to raise loans. >> it is really to a getting into this range. >> the ecb is going into a period where we already see slow growth. >> i think personally, they made an error. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan farrow, and lisa abramowitz. tom: jonathan ferro, lisa abramowitz and tom keene, thrilled to be with you, looking into a critical week next week and for jerome powell and certainly for germany its fragmentation friday. jonathan: i would go further, it is the brink of recession thursday. in looking to the front end of the german bund curve, down 25 basis points is a big move. tom: copper does not come in, i am looking at chicago and copper tells me something different. oil giving the economic slowdown
8:02 am
indicator. jonathan: the next talk, pmi's, and the date has not been terrific. down eight basis points on the 10 year periods to 79 on a 10-year yield. tom: again, we saw massive curve in version two -225 basis points. i believe we have a fed meeting coming up on thursday, but the yield dynamics seem so separate after what we missed -- witnessed yesterday, but -- all of us picking up the debris. jonathan: i think we are all confused about that news conference. just getting some numbers from twitter coming in at $1 billion, and adjusted revenue of 1.870 billion. that is a downside. the average monetize a bull daily average user, did i do that right? tom: have another hard seltzer.
8:03 am
jonathan: 237 .8 million and the estimate to 30 78 5 million. that is after the massive snap yesterday afternoon. tom: it is a revenue, estimate and we estimate this, we misunderstand these social media efforts are compared to real technology, as we mentioned on facebook. jonathan: i think of a massive execution problem this quarter. i know everyone is looking for a macro signal, i would not get it from the social media companies, i would look at alphabet and facebook, and not a company like twitter who we do not know who will run the company and no one in that company knows either. tom: help -- you helped us with hard seltzer, help us with snap and twitter. kailey: just in the fact in the
8:04 am
metal debt of the matter that they are in a battle with the richest man in the world. that reflects advertising industry headwinds with the environment as well as the pending apposition -- application of elon musk. so it is both and, but when we get meta-and alphabet, are they going to fall victim to the same slowdown in ad spending as companies look around at what the economy is doing and say not so much. tom: the biggest mystery on the screen is that you go to the real yields. jonathan: it is elementary and obvious, it is the drop in yields in germany, after the ecb made a move to hike interest rates, they keyed up wanting september. the data is seen -- is speaking loudly and clearly. tom: 32 on the vicks, down to 23, it is not the glory of 10 points and i will take nine. jonathan: futures down and on
8:05 am
the nasdaq down .3%. crew down by .4 percentage points. hanging onto 95, 1 0117, there it is for you and the bond market down by seven basis points and just on 28050 on the u.s. 10 year. tom: with us is lizzie young, always with a different view, and for you, it is the things to watch in august that are different and twisted. which indicator or ratio matters to you as a crystal ball for august? liz: first and foremost next week matters because we are going to get wrecked -- economic data and we will hear from the fed and the expectation is that it might be the last big hike that we get before they could slow down, at least the size of hikes in september. also next week we are getting 30% of s&p performance including
8:06 am
earnings which will be in cross sectors. earnings season has been mixed, not terrible but we have heard from a lot of companies that they are thinking the following environment will be more challenging and preparing themselves for that challenge. i think next week when we hear the rubber hit the road as how this has affected companies in the consumer space and material space and industrials, that is where you feel the squeeze. jonathan: how much confidence do you have the bounce in the stock market? liz: i do not have a ton of confidence that it is durable yet, i think it is dangerous to declare victory before we see any moderation in inflation. the other thing i would say is that i think what the federal reserve wants to see is that there is a trend down in inflation and as we know it is not just one data point, even if inflation starts to moderate with the july data, that does not mean that it is over. we just need to see it happen
8:07 am
for three consecutive months before the fed will say you know what's, it is working, we can take our foot off of the gas pedal. kailey: you say it is dangerous or too early to call the bottom, was it too early to call the depth of the 6040 portfolio as we have done so many times because i am looking at a healthy bond rally. liz: i think it was probably ok to start thinking about 60-40 presenting a knock -- an opportunity again, it was not wrong to say that 60-40 did not work for a long time but while we had bond yearlings as long -- as low as they were they were not providing that diversification benefit but now there is more of an opportunity. here is where i would be careful. you cannot paint with a broad brush in bonds. you cannot say corporate bonds there is a huge opportunity because if we are worried about a recession situation and more stress in the equity market,
8:08 am
that also means more stress in corporate bonds, investment-grade and high-yield. they have gotten a little bit worse but they have not gotten as bad as you would expect them to be in a recessionary environment. you have to be looking at treasuries and high-quality bonds. kailey: what would you be looking for, we heard 700 plus. liz: yes, and spreads have doubled since the beginning of the year but think about where they have gotten to in other recessionary environments. you hear them above 10%. they might not get to that level, that they could widen out, so i would be careful in that space because what you see usually is the equity market will correct, but then there is a correlation between equities and high-yield bonds. the other thing is that you are hearing from companies that have credit card businesses that they are preparing for loan losses and for consumers to not necessarily be spending as much and for the payment cycle to
8:09 am
slow down. you have to think about that as well as well as a debt market indicator. jonathan: one of the big winners, the energy sector in the stock market, it has rolled over a lot and it was a beneficiary of the big inflation trade. i wonder how this performs as growth decelerates. what are you looking for? liz: i think you have to separate what energy is trading at versus what energy stocks might trade at. if you are an income investor and you are a cyclical investor and you need to balance your portfolio, energy stocks might offering ok opportunity and they are paying a nice dividend. it is not that you need to get out of energy stocks, that if you can take the other side of that and look at the commodity itself, because we are seeing a slowdown in demand and we are all hoping for a slowdown in inflation and we have central banks trying to fight that story, i do not think that energy will see a ton more upside. it could stay elevated compared
8:10 am
to where it was before, but i do not think there is a ton more juice that we will squeeze out of it as an energy trade per -- economy wise. jonathan: every futures down by 1/10 of 1% and on crude down 1.3% to 95 tyler's -- $95. tom: equities are resilient and i do not know which way cuts on the headlines but what i saw yesterday from the health company, what you see from american express shows in the summary, equities are resilient. jonathan: twitter resilient, there is one for you. stocks down 2%. kailey: only as a site the same advertising headwinds as snap talked about. that is far worse, down 31% and also trading down in tandem with alphabet and meta-. it is up 3%. we get those reports next week.
8:11 am
tom: i am really focused on what you guys need to do to finish strong and valued to bloomberg surveillance, and i have never seen it friendly. jonathan: what games you want to see? tom: tot's roma. i just cannot figure out where. jonathan: you're the one who knows this. tom: i think it is in rome, but that is why baseball is here. jonathan: friendly preseason could be anywhere in the world, i have no idea, it might not be in north london. tom: it is a value add that you can add to bloomberg. tom: someone will message me immediately. our friendly's friendly? jonathan: people are usually less aggressive. tom: do the stars play? jonathan: some do. this is us right now getting fit
8:12 am
for federal reserve meeting. what are you on this morning? honestly? tom: jon's entourage just sent me the lineup. we have the greatest set of bookers on the planet, extra this friday. jonathan: please do not. hardtack. futures down 10%. tom: i am talking to them right now. jonathan: this is bloomberg. >> keeping you up-to-date around the news, commerce secretary warns that the u.s. cannot keep relying on taiwan for semiconductor's in a virtual speech to the asset security forum. he said congress needs to pass legislation to support domestic production and calls the $50 billion package "a sputnik moment" for america. aggressive groups want chuck schumer to recuse himself from legislation with big tech and they say has a conflict of
8:13 am
interest because of his daughter's work on amazon and meta-platforms. 16 groups have been advocating for antitrust measures tracking -- cracking down on tech giants. a recession might be on the horizon in the euro area, private sector activity unexpectedly shrank this month for the first time since the pandemic lockdown early 2021. a survey of purchasing managers dropped to a 17 month low. and you factoring out but fell and -- output fell. liz trust is extending her lead over rishi sunak. according to a survey of conservative party members, 62% said that they would vote for truss and 38 went for sunak, an earlier poll had truss leading by 19 points. necking quarter revenue soared to a record leading a company to raise its forecast for full-year
8:14 am
revenue. its customers that -- cap spending on travel despite cancellations and long waits. meanwhile the company's expenses rose 32%. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. this is bloomberg. ♪ what if you were a global bank who wanted to supercharge your audit system? so you tap ibm to un-silo your data. and start crunching a year's worth of transactions against thousands of compliance controls with the help of ai. now you're making smarter decisions faster. operating costs are lower. and everyone from your auditors to your bankers feels like a million bucks. let's create smarter ways of putting your data to work. ibm. let's create
8:15 am
8:16 am
8:17 am
8:18 am
>> the research team that bank of america has a real -- a year-end recession but says it is a slight recession and recession is not accompanied by high unemployment which means it ought to come back out. it is more the impact of the fed raising rates. jonathan: the chairman and ceo of bank of america catching up with david westin. futures down .1% on the s&p and the nasdaq 100 down 30 points. yields are lower this morning down six basis points on a 10 year and even lower over in germany. we have to talk about that data out of europe, taylor, sub 50 on
8:19 am
the pmi and yields lower in germany on a two year. tom: i have been missing this, he had the french bailout last week of energy and this you have the germany uniper the modern utility if you can call it that, and i calculate that the bailout is 1.3 3 million per employee, which is one metric of 11,000 employees as well, but it is government to the rescue. jonathan: mind you, they take a stake in 30%, that holding gives him a big enough holding to have rights on strategic decisions. tom: i do not know. jonathan: later this year there will be big decisions to make. tom: it is a new capitalism that speaks to the crisis at hand. it has been hard to get to them to talk because he has different
8:20 am
hours at bloomberg. damien, i am watching malaysia unwind. maybe the bank has to level at 56, and on and on, what is the great unwind of the into the weekend -- of em into the weekend. damien: a relative safe haven has been asia. the assault you are saying and bond markets, that is only on the day. we talked about the malaysian ruby and the philippine peso, it my hat -- it might have been a say phase and -- safe haven and let us be clear, emerging markets, there is no good news. people pointed out in 18% year to date decline and the em has wiped away profit. seven years of profits have been wiped out by this performance. tom: how big of a crisis is this to the western world and international monetary fund? damian: i mean it has been
8:21 am
relatively ignored by the developed market and central banks. know that the fed and the ecb and the pboc are now scaling back their balance sheet. on a year-over-year basis, the balance sheet is down 4.7% year-over-year. the last time that happened was the end of 2018 and the stock markets reacted poorly off the back of it, 20%. we expect some weakness and gaps in the plumbing system for sure. kailey: let us talk about china because we have had a lot of conversation about covid 0 any impact on the chinese economy. the property sector, it seems like every morning i come in and read that things have gotten even worse and a huge chunk of china's economy. have we understood the risk of that? damian: that is a great question and it is not helping that china is censoring information around
8:22 am
the mortgage crisis going on there. to my perspective the whole pyramid is collapsing. the fact that you have mortgage boycotts, over 100,000 homeowners are not paying their mortgages because they never got a home. you know that they presell. it is expanding to the banking market and the agricultural bank of china is feeling pain. the housing market in china is 40% of middle-class health whole household wealth and 35% of the government's. it is a big part of the economy. kailey: what is a policy response, how much do you have to ease and support to get that bleeding to stop? damian: they need to incentivize local governments to finish some of these undeveloped projects. that needs to happen right now so the projects are finished so that people have their homes and they pay their mortgages. right now banks do not want to lend in china and we need to get the banking community involved
8:23 am
and there does not seem to be a willingness. jonathan: it sounds like a recession coming up. damian: look at you, for me, you guys call me, it is a friday center -- summer morning, the yanks just got swept up by the astros. if you want to talk balance sheets, you look at the big four and the fact that they are getting smaller is never a good thing for money supply globally or emerging markets. jonathan: yahweh's want to talk about support. french grand prix this weekend, i -- what are you looking for? damian: i love max and red bull and christian. colin is my favorite racer and he will be hard to beat, i love it. jonathan: i would like to introduce tom to formula one properly. we got him into football eventually, we can do that on formula one eventually. thank you. what did you think, a bit of f1
8:24 am
in your life? tom: ken pruitt who taught me so much tried to teach me. jonathan: he could not convert me. tom: i have a ton of messages about tottenham, it was israel. i just priced it out. kailey: i think it is on the road trip now. jonathan: the flight or take it to get in the game. tom: mary. i think you and i need to do research on the -- on the lavon. we do not have to sit next to each other, $10,796. jonathan: return, business class. it seems like a lot to go for a friendly. we should be there for the start of the season in north london, that is what we should do. go and watch their first game. tom: isn't near tel aviv, i cannot -- i do not know. jonathan: i can believe you are
8:25 am
bothering the travel team with trips that we will not take. tom: mary and i are buds. jonathan: the market is ok? the friendly equity market down .1%. tom: jon, the next 22.95. everyone is saying that the world is coming to an end in equities. michael read it, it is right, and i agree. jonathan: what do you know -- what do make of the bond market move. tom: frankly i am looking at germany. jonathan: you started looking at 5:00 a.m.. the data was not great and i am looking at the u.s. pmi's at 9:45. tom: wait a minute. how many pmi's are there? jonathan: which ones? the s&p global, the ism survey as well, there are different ones in different places. does that help? tom: it is helpful.
8:26 am
kaylee, help me. kailey: i have no idea what you want me to say. jonathan: i am told that it is in northern israel. if you knew that why did you ask. you are setting me up this morning. just let me be. futures are down by 0.06% on the s&p and on the nasdaq 100 we are down .2% off of the back of the data in europe which was dreadful. sub 50. the euro is weaker. i said just let me be. tom: here is what is it about, your base. jonathan: you are so excited to talk all the time, it is like anchoring with a child, i just want to speak. euro-dollar, take a site. -- take us out. where is the dow? tom: where is the dow? dow futures up 74. ♪
8:27 am
8:28 am
this is xfinity rewards. our way of showing our appreciation. with rewards of all shapes and sizes. [ cheers ] are we actually going? yes!! and once in a lifetime moments. two tickets to nascar! yes! find rewards like these and so many more in the xfinity app.
8:29 am
8:30 am
jonathan: live from new york city, good morning, a lot of people asking when abramowitz is back. kailey: i am clearly not doing an adequate job. jonathan: you are leaving us unleashed. we are down .3% on the nasdaq 100. yields coming in by seven or eight break -- basis points.
8:31 am
the big break lower in germany. blonde -- bunds rallying hard, on a 10 year down 17. i have said it, the data in europe is deborah -- is dreadful. tom: we will make -- we are making jokes about it but it is not money for the people of the continent of europe and i bring it right over to the united kingdom and i think it rounds on there. i will be watching his currency markets as a litmus paper and i am sorry they have not broken down but you have to watch euro-dollar. jonathan: the euro cannot even get a bed because i do not understand the reaction function of the ecb and i do not understand what tpi is and i have no idea what happens with gas supply. that is why people think that the euro is still unviable. tom: absolutely. begin right now our coverage into a july 27 federal reserve meeting which in sequence with the last one and might be in sequence with the next one is
8:32 am
historic. a student of this, a history of the nation's economics is a former richmond federal reserve president, jeffrey and we are thrilled that he can join us this morning. i want to go back to one of my heroes, a gentleman from washington university of st. louis, douglas north, who codified the word ambiguity and also did a careful study of the dynamics, the movable parts of our economy. all of our listeners, all of our viewers are drowning in the dynamics of our economic world, how do we get control of it? jeffrey: it has to do with getting injured -- getting inflation down. it is the -- it is the institution with a unique control of the monetary condition of the united states together with fiscal authorities they drive inflation and the fed has to do its job now. and do what it takes to get inflation down. i think chairman powell has been
8:33 am
right in recent months, since march, to emphasize the maximum employment is going to be out of reach until we get inflation down, and we need to put concerns about the labor market on whether it is doing a little bit to the side and focus on getting inflation down, that will take reducing and spending growth and reducing nominal spend and the labor market will play out as well. tom: your shop codified economic history with one of my heroes, i have read every single page that he has written. right now he should be writing about comparing volcker to powell and vice versa. he is not part -- paul volker, right? jeffrey: he was a great central banker in an age of monetary mystique, and age in which central banks elaborately cultivated obscurity and a distance from the public, they did not want to be in the
8:34 am
headlines, they wanted to choose when they would be in the headlines, we are in a different day and age. getting inflation down reveals the value of managing expectations and the value to that of being transparent and communicating about what they are about and trying to do. jay powell strikes me as better suited for the age of transparency and in terms of personal demeanor. one thing that paul volker had was the backing of the political establishment in washington and new york. they were able to take the pain and cultivate an appreciation of the pain needed to withstand in order to get inflation down. i think jay powell seems to have abundant political connections, and abundant skill in managing the fed's political connections. so he seems pretty well-suited on those grounds.
8:35 am
jonathan: this is a delicate subject so you touched on this, how political business fed right now? jeffrey: so, i think they understand that there is nothing that could damage their credibility more than sustained inflation. they can take all the hits that they want on unemployment, labor, and climate change and what have you, but job number one is inflation. if you do not get that down they realize that they are political toast, in some sense. i think that is true of any fed no matter what they say. jonathan: are you convinced that they are willing to tolerate a recession to get inflation down? jeffrey: i do, and they should. jonathan: what kind of referral it -- recession? because a consensus now is short and shallow. jeffrey: i am tempted to say a marriott druggie recession,
8:36 am
whatever it -- a mario druggie -- draghi recession, whatever it takes. the alternative is to let inflation settle by 45% which is another -- which is a recipe for recession down the road and prolonged pain in making the agony longer and stretching out which is not good for the american public and i think they realize that. what they ought to do is stick with it until they get inflation down to under 3%. and to go from there. kailey: so whatever it takes, what will it take? what radon fed funds or unemployment? jeffrey: good question, i think the historical record is clear that they need to get the real federal funds rate at or above zero. so that begs the question what is the actual fed fund rate minus near-term inflation are they investing in at or about
8:37 am
six boys and. -- six point 6%. you have the new york fed consumer survey which is good, a good methodology at 6.8, a difference of 6%. if expectations stay at 6% they will have to get there. it is those -- if those expectations start falling what we have is a rendezvous between the fed fund rate and inspected -- expected inflation. i doubt that expectations are going to fall to 3.5 or four by year end, so i suspect that they will have to go higher than that. kailey: how quickly what they need to get there, 6% is a long way. jeffrey: i do not think slowing down the process does him a lot of good. no matter what, whether they go 50's or 75's, they are still going to be in a situation where inflation is out into next year,
8:38 am
and you will have to make a judgment on when to stop without telling they have done enough or not based on other indications and calculations like the one that i cited, so they might as well get it done, they might as well get there fast. tom: do you look at the path back from this inflation to whatever is normal two to 3%, let us not get into that now, as having a snoot -- smoothness or guide path, or is it kinked where we get to a point and we stop we try to figure out how to lower inflation next and etc.? jeffrey: you know, if the fed tightens enough, i think we will just see a gradual decline down. i think it will sag over a couple of years. i expected to be relatively smooth and i do not have any reason to expect jolts, i expect shock like oil price problems. jonathan: how do you think they would support -- they would
8:39 am
respond to the ned -- negative supply shock on the gas side of things. i do not know if you follow the news conference, but they failed to establish what their reaction function is and how it would respond to a negative supply shock that pushes gas prices higher and growth lower. jeffrey: this is a murky area because oil price shocks tend to cause unemployment people think that is a reason to ease policy. but if you think about it broadly the central bank is controlling the real interest rate, which is the incentive to save and delay consumption and spending for later. and if you get a supply shock, you want people to consume later. what you want to do is raise rates, at least one argument says. there is a case that it does not mean not staying the course of inflation. jonathan: interesting, great to catch up. the former richmond fed president. looking ahead to the fed, this
8:40 am
fed might have to tolerate what he calls a draghi or whatever it takes inflation. tom: they are doing it in the 22 and into the campaign of november 2024. unlike the sanity of the united kingdom, i would suggest that that campaign starts the first wednesday of november this year. jonathan: you have an interesting one, you think the fed will be deterred because of the midterms? tom: i think the fed will be a political fed as it always is and they tell us that they are not. jonathan: even with inflation where it is. do you want to annoy me on the night, i have met, kate more. tom: i have the ceo of boston. jonathan: have you actually got that? i would tune in for that. tom: last time he showed up with a case of sam adams. jonathan: that is a hard seltzer. tom: i would never have one i just look at them and think i do
8:41 am
not want it. jonathan: it just stayed there. kailey: i will get it after hand. tom: what is your favorite hard seltzer. kailey: white claw, lack cherry flavor. jonathan: and it just taste like fizzy water with a hint of black cherry. for the weekend in brooklyn, if you are interested. kailey: on my target patio furniture. jonathan: a lot of economics going on to it. tom: we are deep into research. jonathan: i am convinced that you already have hard tank in the morning. tom: it is homemade. jonathan: is it, future is down .5%. tom: tell anne-marie i do not like the mango. she brought back jeddah some mango. jonathan: you can listen to her story -- to a stories on hard tang. or you can tune in for more bloomberg at 9:00 eastern. tom: we are getting competitive.
8:42 am
jonathan: you can tune into real yield, a special someone -- summer edition with tom anchoring. i thought you would be excited about that. tom: looking forward. i am at a loss for words. jonathan: from new york this is bloomberg. ♪ >> keeping you up-to-date with news around the world. jerome powell probably will not continue the pace of interest rate hikes after a straight 75 basis point increase according to economists surveyed, they expect policymakers to raise its rates have a point in september and then shift to a quarter-point hike the last two meetings of the year. the january 6 committee, the former president ignored pleased to call out -- to clock -- to call back the crowd storming the capitol. members cast the action as a desperate final ploy in his struggle to hold onto the presidency.
8:43 am
the white house is confident that president biden will avoid the worst of the coronavirus things to vaccines in a therapeutic drug. the president is experiencing mild symptoms and has been able to take paxlovid. he will isolate at the white house. in new york state the republican candidate for governor was attacked at a campaign event. a man with a pointed weapon tried to drag the congressman to the ground before being subdued. no one was hurt. the attack took place outside the city of rochester. verizon cut its four year profit and revenue forecast. it is trying to keep up with rivals who have made gains through heavy phone discounts. at&t alarmed industry with a warning that some people are struggling to pay their phone bill. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. ♪
8:44 am
8:45 am
8:46 am
8:47 am
8:48 am
>> people are starting to buy less goods but they are paying more money which will weigh on inventory adjustments which will lay on gdp which is not good for profit margins and earnings, and things are slowing down more materially than what many in the markets are thinking. tom: your first fixed income brief of the weekend, james caron and i urge you to see that in its entirety. we reframe into a fed meeting july 27. haley lies -- caleigh lines with me. she did a wonderful time -- kailey lienz and she is halfway
8:49 am
back from kathmandu and i do not know what her path is or whatever. why am -- right now i line up the book "the coercive cash -- the curse of cash" as one of our most courageous books. there is steve engel out of hong kong reporting some of the challenges of the pacific rim and the securities analysis is richard greenfield who was tarred and feathered years ago with a small upstart called bondage and it was not funny at the time and we can look back and we are thrilled that one of the leaders and media joins us today. on the challenge of mr. mosk and chancery court. do the earnings today matter? richard: i mean they matter from the standpoint of it is yet another signal that the market is slowing. you saw that from snapchat and
8:50 am
you have seen it from twitter. there is a building series of signs that the economy is slowing and advertising is slowing whether that is inflation driven or overall broad economic weakness. there are very specific twitter challenges, but overall macroenvironment was clearly google or facebook next week. these are negative data points, both of them for investors right now. tom: i have to rip up the script and jump over to next week. are we going to see the big boys including the amazon advertising model diminished as well? richard: google has been talking about youtube bearing some pressure and there is no doubt that the connected tv ad market is slowing. you will hear that whether it is from fox or paramount. i think everywhere you look connected tv is slowing, and the tv market and local tv is starting to slow.
8:51 am
the economy is weakening from the standpoint of advertising. companies are seeing topline growth slow, what do they do? cut back on a marketing spend. this is not new, you and i looked over multiple cycles and this is what companies do. they cut their marketing spend, there is nothing shocking about it. the question is how long will it last and how bad it will be in this is a deep, dark recession where ad spend gets crushed, or a shorter-term phenomenon and we bounce back in 23? that is the big question we do not know but you will see meta-, ice -- meta, i keep saying facebook, but we will see them talking about a slowdown in ad revenue, i do not think it is as bad as snapchat, but i do not think it will be a great outlook for them. kailey: to bring it back to twitter they talked about those advertising headwinds but said that part of it is reflected to
8:52 am
uncertainty related to the acquisition. what is your basecase about what the verdict will be in that delaware courts, will he be forced to buy the company? richard: we really do believe he will be forced to buy the company. he signed this agreement when the case in delaware, which will be litigated on an expedited basis, he lost to the push this out. the judge is going to look at this and go the entire elon musk case rests on this question of bots and did twitter disclose the proper amount of bots but when the problem is when you read the merger agreement it never talks about it. there is no discussion and it relies on twitter's public filing and when you read twitter's public filing it says this is how we countb ots -- count bots or real users but we could be wrong. when you read the document it is very hard to see how elon just
8:53 am
sounds like he has buyers remorse whether it is a marketer environment i have no idea. kailey: to that point what happens to the company if a company who is forced to buy it does not want to? richard: it has happened before. the specific performance which is being forced to close a transaction there is precedent for being forced to buy a company, that is his problem, not twitter's. tom: really quickly and i want you to take a broader field of view. is there profit in streaming? is it a durable business? or did they compete it all away spending $200 million on "the gray man." richard: that is an excellent question and the way to answer it is that right now you are seeing one company make a lot of money, which is netflix. netflix is generating 6000 or seven -- six or 7000 billion dollars and it will make more
8:54 am
free cash flow next year. everybody else whether we are talking about disney, or peacock is losing $2.5 billion a year, paramount plows -- plus lost a billion and a half, everyone is drowning in red tape. this is a black hole of streaming because there are too many companies competing and they do not generate a significant amount of time. netflix is 30% of alts time -- of all time spent streaming. youtube is 20%. everybody else tiny, and that is the problem, they are spending billions upon billions of dollars and they are not getting substantial viewership which is the problem. tom: i have 10 more questions and no time, thank you for joining us. we protect the copyright of our analysts and our guests. get it from lsig -- lightshed. i want to look at crypto tuesday
8:55 am
as well. there is a back-and-forth, who has the upper hand? crypto developing as a business or people pushing against a? kailey: it seems like a lot of the leverage got washed out and we saw a breaking out of the trading range it has been in. we are comfortably above $23,000 and that is something we will dig into. this is not what we are expecting because i always push crypto, but the bond market is what has my attention. we are 20 basis points on the german blonde deal. 10 basin points and it is a weaker euro. tom: 2.81% showing concerns about economics and i believe jon ferro, because i have not looked while ferro is all over it. 9:45 we will get the s&p global pmi numbers which will make a lot of sense. another thing we have to look at , excuse me, is west texas
8:56 am
intermediate coming up and then down, $95 a barrel, about $120. kailey: it is -- it is far from it. we are seeing a cooling in wheat and corn. the energy and food price pressures that people have been feeling, there are signs that it will come down and i wonder what that makes for central banks responding to headline inflation. thank you, i spent a week with you, i learned something. tom: farm girl from fargo would have nailed it. one of the stories this week plunging. next week, a rumored return, lisa abramowitz where she will cohost "farm journal." stay with us, this is bloomberg. ♪
8:57 am
psst. girl. you can do better.
8:58 am
ok. wow. i'm right here. and you can do better, too. at least with your big name wireless carrier. with xfinity mobile, you can get unlimited for $30 per month on the nation's most reliable 5g network. they can even save you hundreds a year on your wireless bill, over t-mobile, at&t and verizon. wow. i can do better. yes, you can. i can do better, too. break free from the big three and switch to xfinity mobile. to finally lose 80 pounds and keep it off with golo is amazing. i've been maintaining. the weight is gone and it's never coming back. with golo, i've not only kept off the weight but i'm happier, i'm healthier, and i have a new lease on life. golo is the only thing that will let you lose weight and keep it off. who loses 138 pounds in nine months? i did! golo's a lifestyle change and you make the change and it stays off. (soft music)
8:59 am
9:00 am
jonathan: looking to wrap up a decent week again. good morning, good morning. the market just a little bit softer. the countdown to the open starts right now. >> everything you need to get set for the start of u.s. trading. this is bloomberg "the open," with jonathan ferro. jonathan: live from new york, we begin with the end of forward guidance.


info Stream Only

Uploaded by TV Archive on