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tv   Bloomberg Markets European Open  Bloomberg  November 1, 2022 4:00am-5:01am EDT

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stocks and treasuries rally on optimism and aggressive rate hikes by the fed nearing an end. chinese market surge on speculation the country may exit stringent covert restrictions. the long and winding road. the bank of england becomes the first major central bank to start quantitative tightening. higher taxes are on the way. a bump in energy profits. aramco smashes expectations but president biden wants the industry to invest more in the u.s. or pay up to d.c.. let's take a look. at the futures as we are aware of what's happening in asia. rumors, speculations that may be a committee is being formed to assess whether or not to roll back some covert restrictions in china in the first quarter of next year. an official out of beijing is pushed back on those rumors. they come off a bit but you're
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seeing some solid upside when it comes to chinese companies, tech companies list of in hong kong. gains of 8/10 of a percent. talk about the focus on the pivot from the fed. we've had this conversation before but now arguably there is something of a consensus forming. just look at the likes of the commentary for morgan stanley and jp morgan. all suggesting that there will be some kind of pivot in the early part of 2023. the language of jay powell and company will be essential. let's look at things across the major indexes. were looking at the vet tightening. the first major central bank to start selling some bonds built up. the risks associated with that uncharted territory as the boe heads towards that this afternoon. the ftse 100 posted gains. over in italy, a gains of 1% as
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well. the spanish ibex up as well. let's switch it over and see how things are playing out across asset. we will draw down on that asia story briefly. after the losses we saw on the u.s. yesterday, the nasdaq down a little bit over 1%. s&p pointed to gains. the tech story again china in focus. currently 3073. gains of around 9% in the session on that index. officials pushing back on that story. the gains it's pretty solid on the mainland as well. euro-dollar gaining on the back of weakness from the u.s. dollar. 99's and stay are currently on euro-dollar. 5/10 of a percent. coming back below 4% yields off by six basis points. we had a high -- a high from the rbl.
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you saw a bit of a rally for bonds on the back of that. feeding into that pivot conversation. let's get more with mark cudmore. you've been looking at u.k. and u.s. yields for us. mark: good morning. fomc tomorrow than bank of england both expecting a hike 75 basis points this week but there's a different narrative about which one can afford to continue being hawkish versus dovish and the expectation is the bank of england if they go 25 it will be a dovish narrative. two year 2k yield -- u.k. yields. at the moment u.k. yields are about 120 basis points below u.s. yields. this is over the past six months and you can see it's returned what seems to be the normal range at least until we got into the leadership contest of the u.k. and until we got that
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fiscal plan. were suddenly u.k. yields exploded. and they had to backtrack and we remove liz truss and were back in the normal range. it seems to be back to stability. if you put this on the 30 year chart it provides perspective that shows up until 2014 at 2015 it was more normal for u.k. yields to be above u.s. yields for kind of all prior history and this is really a phenomenon of the last seven years about the u.k. yields. i'm not sure that this recent error can last -- era, last. part of that is consensus forecasts so u.s. inflation next year will be at 4.05%. for the u.k. to be at 6.25%. we know inflation forecasts get revised all the time but there's no reason to assume one is way more accurate than another. that gap is 2.2% saying u.k.
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inflation moving higher in the u.s.. so why are yields 120 basis points lower. that means the real yield deferential of about 3.4 percentage points. if it stays that a wide that would be massive downward pressure over the next year. either will see a lot of sterling weakness against the dollar or u.k. yields higher. my expectation is a combination of both. tom: really interesting context. that inflation dynamic and that gap in terms of the forecast in the u.s. in the u.k.. to your point currently there's quite a strong move into the front-end. the two at 319. bloomberg mliv managing editor mark cudmore thank you very much. some analysts see a change of pace on the horizon. that's the consensus building of
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jp morgan. each see the fed signaling that the pace of hiking will slow ahead of rates speaking in 2023's of the economy has a chance to catch up to the hikes which of heard it already. joining us the cohead of swiss on global equity. good morning and thanks for joining us. we start there then with the fed head of the fomc decision. do you align with this view that a pivot is now looking far more likely from the fed as it weighs up the hikes being pushed through. >> i think it will depend on what data we see coming through certainly the united states does seem to be slightly ahead of europe in terms of dealing with their inflationary pressures, they were hiking faster earlier and probably had negative language in terms of hawkish language from the fed peaking in august so it would make sense
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now we see another 75 basis ranged hike and perhaps slightly smaller incremental hikes into next year. tom: is it too early to start positioning for that scenario and allocate around that outcome? >> i think the problem as far as the equity markets are concerned is that we have probably reflected the financial price of equity markets, we probably got the right price at the moment. bizarrely it's a contradictory statement. we may not yet have the right earnings number for equity markets. not quite sure that we are fully reflecting yet what may be a disappointing year in 2023. and my fear is before we start seeing what one would expect, multiple expansion 2023 despite having negative earnings we may still have the market reacting
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negatively to those worse earnings perhaps reflected in expectation so far. so i think we have a little bit of fragility as we get into 2023 and may be the beginning of 2023 where companies begin to talk more negatively about their expectations for 2023 and in the multiple x factor stricter kick in in the equity -- if that cycle is a traditional equity market cycle. tom: thank you for that take as we are way up whether or not indeed a pivot is in the cards for the federal reserve. let's bring in manus cranny who is at the energy conference in abu dhabi. what's happening in these oil markets. manus: tom, a good man. i've been called many a thing in
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my time. i'll take whatever name you throw it may bring we've got dan yergin here who finished his audience on the floor. good to have you, time is precious. let's get to the rub of the issues on the day. biden is talking about a windfall of war, flying the kite by the possibility of windfall taxes. you live through many administrations. do you think this windfall tax can take flight. >> i think it's a highly charged political environment, whether your democrat or republican you're concerned about high energy prices, what happens in the winter and the industry is cyclical and it's a time when profits are strong. i think what you don't want to do and what we do need is people holding together to address production issues and what happens on december 5.
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you need people cooperating. manus: new sanctions, in december 5 anywhere between 2 million to 3 million barrels with product and crude will come off the market from europe. translate that crisis into what happens on the market. december the fifth that oil comes off. >> the question is how does russia respond to it. as you see the product that comes in february, that might be even more difficult because refining. but i think if ask the question is do you use gas as a weapon or oil as a weapon. it may be in his interest to restrict supply until they go up. manus: americans are talking about a price cap. to the russians just shut in and go no.
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>> basically putting price controls on what's never been done before in the weight of it is in a fall on the shippers and the insurance people who manage it. i think it would be two different for the discount price but the question is is vladimir putin going to allow for the u.s. treasury to set the price of his oil given everything else we've heard in that speech a week or so going -- ago in moscow. and all he said talking about price controls and how you get a shortage of tomatoes. so they had a couple months to prepare for this. manus: do you expect them to shut off the taps? daniel: i don't think completely but i think you can see a disruption of some supply. you are trying to manage something that's never happened before and it involves so many different participants. manus: let's say there is an
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escalation. using the word panic. panic to me on bloomberg, i want to know what that translates to. daniel: i'm knocking up put a price on it but we haven't had a scramble for oil since the 1970's and we could have it today. countries are very much at the edge and i think you have to be conscious of that. sending out the message of confidence. manus: but we have a conflict between saudi arabia and the united states of america. this is energy sovereignty, that is the word you used when you sat in the seat. translate energy sovereignty to the saudi's. daniel: it's interesting how you get a new buzzword. basically take the global supply chain, a country say we have to be more self-sufficient and in oil as well and natural gas now it's less reliant on just efficiency building security and
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investing in it and clearly boost renewable energy as part of that. so i think what's happened over the last year has really made people rethink about -- recognize there's been underinvestment in the petrol resources you need and a question, of the transition is happening but it won't happen overnight. manus: they've been hesitant to invest because of the dislocation a policy from government. there is no clear policy let's say from the current administration which is no drilling on federal land, then talk about windfall taxes. there's a lack of clarity. daniel: step up production now but we want to stop it later. i think it's been a shock for the administration came in only focused on climate and its had to deal with very severe energy problems and they have to work with an industry but don't
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really know very well. manus: we've run out of time. we didn't get him on the final call but the 2 million barrels. it was a paper cut, everyone is saying that. the unintended consequence of a brutal geopolitical war of words between saudi arabia and the united states of america. tom: manus cranny on the ground in abu dhabi with that important conversation. coming up, the great unwind. the boe set to become the first major central bank to sell off assets accumulated during a 13-year-old stimulus program. this is bloomberg. ♪
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tom: almost 17 minutes into the european trading day. the benchmark is up 1.2%, future state side point to the gains of 9.8% after a solid session in asia. let's get back to what's happening in the u.k.. the boe set to become the first major central bank today to sell
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off assets accumulated during a 13-year-old stimulus program. the unwind will represent a test case for how quickly markets can shift away from easy money policies paired for more were joined by lizzy burden. how significant is this and what is the market reaction like. to me this is a big moment for the boe but also central banks. lizzie: they are sailing into uncharted territory for central banks around the world as a guinea pig for markets taking away easy money. it's a big statement from the bank of england to say we are confident in markets because a few weeks ago they were buying bonds to rescue pensioners from market turmoil that followed the many -- the mini budget. we are going to make interest rates the active tool again, a retooling case another crisis comes along. what we do not know is what the bank of england will do with the long end of the curve because that's where the turmoil happened. we're still waiting to hear if
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they're selling bonds they and the other thing is it's not just investors watching this today. it's also the treasury because the boe is selling that loss, of the treasury is covering data loss and reminder to the chancellor there is a price of fiscal u-turns. tom: so far no signs of panic. money moving into guilt at the front end and the long end as well. that repair work continues between the new prime minister working with his chancellor. they've dropped some hints and maybe tax cuts. one of the details on what's coming out of the woodwork? lizzie: an exercise in expectations management and the readout from their meeting yesterday. this morning there are two reports from the institute for public policy research and also the resolution foundation saying government departments cannot take anymore austerity because of inflation and ipp are saying what they need is 40 billion
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pounds of tax writers on the wealthiest in society to flood the fiscal blackhole. jeremy corbyn and rishi sunak are reported to have said that we do need tax rises across the board especially on the wealthiest, those with the broadest shoulders and carry the burden most easily. so they are laying the foundations for a big u-turn from the tax cuts to the tax rises. tom: thanks for breaking that down for us. let's bring back elinor -- eleanor. when it comes to the question of quantitative tightening and lizzie was outlining this and the test case for global central banks, what do you assesses the risk of unintended consequences on this decision by the boe to go ahead with quantitative tightening in this environment? eleanor: i think were coming back to a situation of normality and going back to what was being
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prepared prior to that budget we had. if we listen to what's being said on the fiscal side we are clearly getting the message he had shared during the leadership campaign this summer and we are seeing central bank doing what central banks do, i.e. setting monetary policy and making sure that they are setting the monetary policy. we had some quite interesting language about the independence of the bank of england which was perhaps something of a concern to some market watchers. seeing will move from the easing to tightening was in the books until the bank of england had to intervene. i see this is a return to managing and proper economic behavior. i do not expect there to be unexpected consequences from it.
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unexpected consequences could come from inflation being sticky in the united kingdom and other geographies for other reasons. tom: where does that leave your appetite for u.k. assets? eleanor: it's probably closer to the difficulties we have in terms of trying to balance high-level inflation in the united kingdom, a high level of inflation at slightly behind the curve as far as the united states is concerned. but the u.k. showing some of the problems europe has in terms of high energy prices. some of the problems the u.s. has in terms of labor shortage. and at the same time trying to change its trading partnerships around the world. that doesn't mean there's going to be an adaptation which has to happen within the u.k. economy which i think i prefer to observe from afar rather than get too cold -- close to. eleanor: tom: not wanting to get
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too involved in u.k. assets -- tom: not wanting to get involved in u.k. assets. eleanor, thank you, currently seeing the ftse 100 gaining around 1.4%. the pound is up and gilts are -- as well. our schools of interview with the credit suisse chairman who says the bank is not for sale and will thrive again. this is bloomberg. ♪
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tom: welcome back to the open. solid gains across the benchmark. futures in the u.s. also higher between 8/10 of a percent and a full 1% for the nasdaq futures. trading up, a gain of 1.3% as we look at the quantitative tightening on the bank of england later today. investors continue to weigh up what we expect out of the federal reserve tomorrow. the language from jay powell. whether or not he aligns with the views we've heard that a pivot could be on hand in the first quarter were the early stages of 2023. risk on today the dollar is down .
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let's check in on some of the individual names as well. the politics overlapping, oil and bp, very solid set of numbers. losses of 8/10 of 1% by your looking at third-quarter net adjusted income -- profits. estimates have been for a little over 6.1 billion bp announcing a share buyback, gaining on the back of an upside in terms of copper. stay with us, and exclusive interview with the chairman. this is bloomberg. ♪
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xfinity rewards is a program whose sole purpose is to say "thank you" with experiences big, small and once-in-a-lifetime. sometimes it's about cheering hard enough to shake the stadium! sometimes, it's as simple as movie night right here at home, on us. you mean the world to us. so we're bringing you closer to what you love. kinda like this. welcome to 30 rock! join xfinity rewards for free on the xfinity app today. our thanks, your rewards.
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tom: 30 minutes into the european trading day and hear your top stories.
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stockton treasuries rally on optimism and rate hikes by the fed are nearing an end. chinese market surge on speculation they may exit stringent covert restrictions. the long unwinding road. the bank of england becomes the first major central bank to start quantitative tightening, a downing street says higher taxes are on the way. bumping energy profits paid aramco and bp smash expectations but president biden wants the industry to invest more in the u.s. or pay more to d.c.. it's a risk on environment is tuesday morning as we look ahead to the federal reserve on wednesday. signaling from jay powell will be crucial in that consensus view, almost consensus view. but you will get the end of frontloading and the pivot is coming sooner rather than later. the fed then on wednesday, the boe of course. tightening this afternoon.
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the rate hike in expectations you may be get 75 on thursday from the boe. warnings from others that that may be too much to digest. benchmark we are seeing gains. the dax is up 137 points. pretty decent gains of 1.4%. a lot of that down to what's happening in basic resources. the boost as well from what's happening in china. the rumors and speculation at this stage but nonetheless rocket fuel for chinese stocks particularly those with that in hong kong ending the session up between 4% and 5%. in terms of those tech stocks, mainland shares also in the green on the back of that person consumer products gaining by 2.5%. the problem is food and telecoms. the riskier parts of these markets in terms of what's happening across basic resources in the safe havens currently
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near the bottom and but still up around 4/10 of a percent. that embattled swiss lender, he says he's convinced the banks newly unveiled restructuring plan will allow it to come out stronger. telling us exclusively for the swiss lender will thrive again, and it is not for sale. >> i think we figured out where we need to go and really very important decisions for the group, it's about looking to execute that plan. >> do you think the worst is behind you? do you think eventually things are still in the works and you might have to raise more capital? or is that even part of the plan? >> we announced a capital increase, we will do that and now it's about execution.
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step-by-step, quarter by quarter , what do we do with securitized product. we will show progress on the operation transformation and the cost reduction program. i think we came along way as a group. we really came along way. we are really looking to some of the fundamental issues that we have and go back to the core of the business, so we really have our key strengths and that's what we are going to execute. i am excited. tom: axel lehman speaking a little over 3%. let's talk energy. it's been another quarter for big oil. massive profit gains by the second highest quarterly results on record. early this morning we heard from oh mv ceo about the outlook for
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this energy market. >> there is some curtailment of production and some of the chemical industry is under big pressure. any industry that uses a high portion of energy has a lot of challenges at this point. and i think we will see some pressure on this in the next quarter. tom: that was earlier this morning. let's switch focus to china because the action chinese stocks is been quite remarkable. do yuan strengthened on unconfirmed social media posts speculating that a committee was being formed to assess scenarios on how to exit covid zero. to discuss this i'm pleased to bring in the managing editor for bloomberg -- a huge rally we see. do people really believe this will happen soon, that this committee will be formed and that this is being assessed now
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by top officials in beijing? >> i think it depends on who you are asking this question too. if you were to ask local consumers, things are getting worse since the party conference. if you look at the lockdowns, big cities in china are all seeing various levels of lockdown. if you were to ask a forward-looking investors, some of them are positioning for reopening indeed. bernstein last week said they are positioning your portfolio, picking up airlines and reopening stop. they also said last week investors should buy the dips into chinese stocks for reasons including hopes. there's a bit of a diverging view among local consumers and investors. tom: very interesting. foreign investors positioning for reopening.
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just outlined a little more detail which centers of the economy would be best positioned to benefit should that reopening happen. >> we asked analysts and investors this question, are telling us including bloomberg intelligence in the u.s. sectors including big tech, consumer sector and energy are at best positioned to capitalize on a reopening for chinese economy. in europe i should say when looking at luxury center, resources and semiconductor. so in general i think tourism related sectors are obviously big winners because chinese tourists accounted for 20% of international tourism spending. tom: i'm going to loop back to your comments, your analysis for foreign investors.
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what are you seeing for domestic chinese investors. of been a managing that enthusiasm we are seeing? lianting: i think for domestic investors they are jaded. there living in communities where lockdowns keep happening so for them to have the kind of enthusiasm to the opening will actually happen soon is a bit difficult. they are doing with this trading opportunity. whether they actually think the government is at the senior level. the kind of committee and the system to be put in place for reopening. i don't think they are telling us that as of yet. tom: a pretty significant day for chinese equities but we will see how long it lasts. carrying on across the benchmark. about 3.6% and over in hong kong
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the tech index. coming up, brazil, lula winning but bolsonaro has not yet conceded. this is bloomberg. ♪
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tom: welcome back to the open. it's a risk on, gains across the european benchmark. let's get the bloomberg first word news. >> president biden says he will seek to impose higher cuts -- higher taxes on oil companies that are making windfall profits without reinvesting in production. biden called on big oil to put consumers profits before anything else. democrats have tried unsuccessfully to levy a windfall tax for over a decade. now ukraine has warned widespread blackouts after a massive wave of russian missile attacks damaged power and water supplies on monday including in the capital. the kremlin says grain shipments would be much riskier and more dangerous after pulling out of a
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black sea agreement blaming an attack on its navy vessels in the region. australia's central bank is raised rates and signaled further tightening to come. they lifted the cash rate to 2.8 5%, its highest since 2013 and a move which underlines its pivot away from outsized increases by the central bank cut its outlook. global news 24 hours a day on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm leigh-ann gerrans, this is bloomberg. tom: thank you very much indeed. the brazilian president yet year bolsonaro -- the resign president bolsonaro still keeping silent. leaving folks guessing on whether he will actually concede. joining us to discuss. what is the latest your hearing
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from brazil. he hasn't conceded yet. will it happen imminently. what's going on? >> at the moment we of silence from bolsonaro himself. really important over the last 24 hours we've seen a number of figures in his camp. his vice president, figures within the military indicating they will move towards concession. bolsonaro is stuck between two poles. he has his core of supporters who really do not want him to conceded are conducting protests across brazil mostly on highways. and then his allies who want him to move on. the other thing was seeing his lula rushing to build this broad coalition he will have to construct in order to govern brazil. tom: and we are seeing protests as well on the ground in brazil,
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pro-bolsonaro protests. what happens if he does not admit defeat? >> i think it is very unlikely because his allies have really pushed him to do so. he will have to at some point. the moment, silence is consent. the longer he stays silent, the harder the transition is and of course the longer he stays silent the longer he can keep his base going and really fueling these protests we are seeing that are sporadic but still quite significant. tom: interesting on the silence aspect of it. when it comes to lula and his progress with the cabinet naming key economic officials has there been any movement on that front. clara: still waiting to hear on key appointments, we know he's going to build a large cabinet.
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10 more positions than the bolsonaro government had spread a lot of people he needs to bring on board as it creates problems of his own. without it you won't have the support in congress he needs and that will be crucial to pushing through some of the very deep and necessary structural reforms that lie ahead especially into a difficult 2023 where govern -- government revenues will be lower. tom: thank you for the analysis on the latest out of brazil. israelis had to the polls for the country's fifth election in under four years. analysts aren't convinced this can break the cycle of political bad luck which is doomed previous governments. joining us is bloomberg's editor in israel. what are the key issues this time around? >> the key issue seems to be whether or not benjamin netanyahu should return to lead
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the country. it is basically evenly split between the pro netanyahu forces in the anti-netanyahu forces. tom: so a question as to whether or not he will be back in the fold. what are the polls telling us, how much support does he have? >> it's really too close to call at this point. netanyahu's party is according to the opinion polls going to get the largest number of seats. in order to lead the country he'll have to put together a coalition of at least 61 seats of the 120 member parliament. and according to opinion polls he does squeak through and some of the polls but in some he just does not have enough. on the other hand, his main
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rival is the current caretaker prime minister and according to the opinion poll he has not been able to get enough seats to form a coalition either. so we really don't know if there's going to be a sixth election possibly. tom: wow. remarkable. what are the key differences when it comes to economic policy of both of these candidates? alisa: there's not a really large difference in economic policy between the two blocks. the main difference really is personal whether they think netanyahu should lead the country or not. and because of economic policy it's really hard to pin down any
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big differences between the two. >> really interesting, thank you. on that fifth election, possibly a sixth. whether he'll be back in the seat of power there in israel. coming up, central banks are in action. we braked on the market expectations. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> i think we figured out where we need to go and we took some bold and really important decisions but now it's about looking forward to execute that plan. >> do you think the worst is behind you and do you think in
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the eventually -- but eventually things are still in the works you might have to raise more capital? or is that even part of the plan? >> we announced a capital increase. and now it's about execution. step-by-step, a quarter by quarter. we will be fine in -- we will show progress. on the cost reduction. i think we came along way as a group. we've taken the right decision. we are to some of the fundamental issues. looking at the origin. and that's what we are going to execute. . i am more excited. tom: axel lehman speaking
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exclusively in hong kong. . it is of course a major weekly central banks. a slowing in the pace of rate hikes. that's the consensus. which the fed signaling a slowdown. that is so the economy has a chance to catch up that's been pushed through. let's start event with that consensus starting to build. they're all starting to see from the fed. 75 basis points. it's the guidance that so central. >> potentially has a bit of a hawkish risk to it. given the way banks brought down their expectations slightly there is a risk that this could fuel a rally and bond markets. i think he's got to be careful
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to not feel that expectation too much. he might lean towards being more hawkish and saying the rates might slow slightly. we will still get to the same base rate eventually so don't get too excited. so some may be caught on the wrong side with too much dovishness that i think there's a bit of a hawkish risk going into that decision tomorrow. >> our markets pricing into much hawkish in us? joe: a bit of a crazy month given the budget that we saw. that's really blowing up the expectations paid some announcing 50 basis points. some sitting at 100. there were some banks during the height of the crisis singer could be a 200 basis point hike. so those expectations have been blowing up now. i do think we need to see some
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actual change in data and most importantly the report from the opr that's not coming until november 17. getting these projections on the government finances. it was supposed to have come yesterday. don't make the boe easier to predict. i think there's another risk going into that. >> they would prefer to have that assessment before that decision on thursday. when it comes to the earnings story, may be additional political pressure on that company. what is standing out to you on the earnings season so far? >> slightly weaker than expected but if you bring in the other financials and other energy companies like bp it slightly better than expected. i think we've seen bp today with the share buyback. booming broken trade with the interest rate market. so this are doing well. we need to see is how the
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cost-of-living crisis in the interest rates are hurting demand. we haven't seen that. that will come next quarter or maybe after. at the moment receiving the initial signs out there taking out the banks, earnings are actually slightly weaker than expected. >> thanks for breaking down some of those key things. it is risk on still, futures stateside between 8/10 of 1%. nasdaq futures higher by a full 1%. bonds also -- i head of quantitative tightening. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> is not for sale. welcome to "bloomberg surveillance: early edition",
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i'm anna edwards in london with t


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