tv Bloomberg Markets Asia Bloomberg November 2, 2022 10:00pm-11:00pm EDT
morning here in hong kong as well as singapore. 11:00 in tokyo. this is bloomberg markets. i'm rishaad with david and yvonne. yvonne: a new phase in the fed's inflation fight. smaller hikes along the way. >> we still have some ways to go and incoming data since our last meeting suggests that the ultimate level of interest rates will be higher than previously expected. yvonne: asian markets extending wall street declines on that message of chinese stocks lower as officials reinforce covid zero, squashing rumors of a reopening plan. north korea fired more missiles today, including one that triggered an alert in japan. rishaad: what do we have? got the federal reserve, economist saying it is reminiscent of winston churchill when he remarked that now is not the end, it is not the beginning
of the end, but it is perhaps the beginning. i was trying to say the end of the beginning. federal reserve data, plenty ahead of that. pmi's and we've got asian buyers reacting as well. they'll be raising interest rates. david, we have china covid zero and other things. services and reopening stocks. david: there was a lot of reasons to sell the rally, let's put it that way. the reopening that really rallied hard. 13% on her index, up until this morning. that is the china reopening story. three days of gains across the benchmark. we had the fed meeting, to your point, and again, after the fed meeting, nothing new. markets have to be price their expectations. almost mechanical adjustment on rates. the dollar and of course the pivot down in the equity
markets. and again, to my point early on, the bond markets, as we can see here, on the way up. double digit gains as far as the basis points, as far as new zealand and australia are concerned. speaking of the reopening story in china, the rally went on arguably a day too long. so maybe we are getting that come off a little bit help -- suffice to say the story unless we get a lot more clarity and confirmation, we were told by our guest from ubs, we need to wait and see really to chase this rally further. yvonne: not just yet. do not chase it, right? and you can confirm really quickly as we are seeing here right now, speaking of getting burned, the pivot, not quite. we did not get it from jay powell. he tried to sway things the other direction after that post policy statement in the press
conference, really just talking about how peak rates are going to be above the median estimates that were set back in september. you see that in wall street and the s&p basically overnight, basically flipping by over 130 points. during the press conference alone. and here is more from jay powell. jay powell: today the fomc raised our policy rate by 75 basis points. my colleagues and i are strongly committed to bringing inflation back down to our 2% goal. if we do not get inflation under control, because we do not tell you enough, now we are in a situation where inflation will become entrenched. we have both the tools that we need and the resolve it will take to restore price stability on behalf of american families. it is very premature to be thinking about policy. when people think about lags, they think about policy. we still have some ways to go. and incoming data since our last meeting suggests that the ultimate level of interest rates will be higher than previously expected. we have some grounded left to cover here and cover it we will.
rishaad: as david has been saying, higher for longer here. upping the ante a little bit there, having a look at how these implied rates come through right now. we've got them bumped up slightly for next year. currently the fed rotation is to hit 5% by march and stay there all the way through the end of the fourth quarter of next year. so there we go, that is also in some ways, david, moved since you first sent the message out. david: absolutely in effect when you look at the two-year futures right now if the cash market was trading in japan you would get yields pushing up further. let's get more contacts from garfield reynold, contributor to our blog here. that is the point, isn't it? they came out and revised their forecast to five and a do you now see at least more rooms for the short end of the treasury markets with higher yields, that is?
garfield: poe, yeah, i definitely think so david. it is this relentless drive higher in both where the fed is going and where the fed expects to be going. and the way that markets have turned -- if you think back to the beginning of the year, markets were ahead of the fed. they were like you need to raise rates and you need to start raising them soon and do so aggressively, because inflation is not going to be transitory. however, once the fed started acting, markets started to price in a pause well before the fed was expecting one, because they expect the fed's actions to have sufficient consequences to bring down inflation. now, as you heard from jay powell just now, he is not expecting that anywhere near where we are and we have had this relentless increase in where markets expect the terminal rate to be. three months ago, the fed futures curve was signaling peak
rate for the fed with three and a half percent. we are already above three and a half percent in the actual rates and the fed has got further to go. now we've got as you said 5%. we got forecast that it could be 5.5%. larry summers and others have talked potentially about going to 6%. with all of that going on, a two year yield at about 4.6 looks well and truly undercooked. yvonne: all right, we are aiming closer to five. what does this mean overall when it comes to -- overall, just what market sentiment is going to be like, right? how do i look at smaller pace of hikes, which was seen as dovish, but then a peak rates, which is seemingly hawkish? was the market right to make that call that this is a hawkish statement? garfield: well, i think the market is having a strong expectation that the fed wanted
to frontload hikes and then pause. now, there is obviously perhaps a hidden -- very well hidden, a little bit of concern within the policymaking space that you cannot keep on delivering 75 basis point hikes in china, so you do need to slow down. because you are getting to a point where there is some traction flows, rate hikes, there is some impact. the problem is as long as inflation is at a level like that, you cannot be countenance and, you know, and and to rate hikes. in particular the other difficult event the fed is having his hammering home this message that it does not want to repeat the mistakes of the 1980's and turn around and cut rates at the first hint of a recession. because back in the late 70's, early 80's, that is what happened. it ended up creating a bigger inflation problem over the medium term. rishaad: garfield, good stuff.
garfield reynold's. let's have a look at the first word news. north korea firing at least three ballistic missiles thursday, prompting japan because one flew over its territory. kim jong-un's regime of 23 missiles, north korea started the week by threatening to take powerful measures if the united states did not halt military drills with partners, including south korea. take a look at the u.s. and netherlands expected to hold a new round of talks this month on restricting china's access to advanced chip technologies. sources telling bloomberg that washington has been pressuring the dutch government to halt sales of a wide variety of chip production machines to china. they produce one-of-a-kind machines and the u.s. needs it onboard to exempt -- exert maximum pressure on beijing. wheat futures tumbling. russia's participation in the black sea grain deal, moscow says it's written -- received written guarantees that safe
passage will be used only for grain exports. nations welcoming russia's return with the help of the turkish president. u.s. saying it will work with allies to remove iran from the u.n. commission on the status of women. they seek to punish the regime in tehran over protests for the death of a woman who flouted strict islamic dress codes. they've already placed restrictions on the so-called morality police. and that is a look at the first word headlines. yvonne: we have one million happy founder to tell us how an extended time of financial and social upheaval could derail progress in the digital economy. david: that's a lot of smiles. coming up, former indonesian finance minister on the cost of asia's energy transition. so lots to look forward to hear on the program. this is bloomberg. ♪
asia. ringing together top leaders in business and finance good we are going to get straight to the event. standing by with the former finance minister of indonesia. haslinda: they are the men in the hot seat right now. good to have you with us. love the concerns about how they will respond to the 75 moved by the fed. will that force the hand? >> respond to the interest hike by the fed. in indonesia, the central bank, it is focused on the inflation. but it is also important to maintain or ensure that there will not be excessive overshoot, because otherwise, it might be a panic in the market. because of that, i think
indonesia should respond with the interest rate hike by raising also the interest rate. haslinda: how high should the governor go? he has already frontloaded 15 in a row? chatib: of course, they need to maintain the disparity in indonesia. my guess may be not a 50 basis point. haslinda: the point really is the -- is not under that much pressure. still quite resilient, down about 8%. the likes of the korean yuan, there is no pressure there. fair assessment to make. chatib: i agree with you. i do not think the valuation needs to raise interest rates by 75 basis points. but the excessive overshoot might be a panic. so, the strategy for indonesia is smoothing the volatility by
raising also the interest rate. haslinda: indonesia's gdp going forward, we had the imf projecting 5% growth. that seems to be pretty optimistic, given the challenging environment. chatib: well, i am not as optimistic as imf. but i can see possibly the slowdown, but probably the fear of recession is small. our export is only 25% compared to a country like singapore, it's 180%. singapore would be affected very much by this, so with the global economy. but probably indonesia, less. haslinda: having said that, we have possibly a recession in europe. a mild recession in the u.s., if it does happen. indonesia has been spared. surely that would impact economies like indonesia? chatib: the country that indonesia should look at carefully is china.
because china is one of our largest -- if china slows down, it will affect the commodity price and also energy prices. and we know that about 60% of our exports, i do believe that this will have an impact on our exports. haslinda: how concerned are you about the impact from china, given the current pace of the slowdown? chatib: i was not, but at the same time, do not forget that with geopolitical tension in europe now, there is russia limiting their supply of natural gas to germany. and the demand for coal has increased. the coal price is going to be high at this moment. in indonesia, we've got the benefit of it because coal is a big chunk of our exports. haslinda: i want to check on operation twist. there's been a lot of skepticism that it is working good what is your assessment of what is happening there? chatib: we probably have to do
an evaluation later on, but at this moment, i do not see this strategy as quite effective, because in the short-term, it might create confusion in the market. indonesia would like to anchor inflation, but they are aiming also to have the low interest rate. so we will see the impact later on. haslinda: the thing is, indonesia wants to bring in folks support. what needs to be done for that to happen? chatib: a couple of things, yet. the first one you're talking about the idea of the classic recipe of the investment climate. the second one, i think the interest rate is still very important. and also, the anchor of the fiscal policy. haslinda: talk to us about the fiscal policy. how much physical space is the right now? chatib: good question, because next year by 20 when he three --
2023 the government is said to have it be less than 3%, so you can look at the balance sheet. the government will drop because the dipped rises at the same time. the deficit is less than 3%, so we will see the contractionary of our physical. what the government is supposed to do is due compensation. under this kind of situation, the most important thing for the government is to improve the spending quality. and to put -- in my view, the most important action. haslinda: how might that play out? how should the money be spent? where should the priority areas be? chatib: he had a couple of social assistance programs. this group of people is -- if you give them money, they are going to spend the money. that is exactly what we did
during covid and that is the reason why our recession was mild. haslinda: just one final question before we let you go, is a mighty dollar environment and some say the pound, if the dollar keeps rising at this pace, something will break. what might that be? chatib: well, like it or not, i think we have to follow the market. because from the perspective of indonesia, what they can do -- that is one thing, the volatility. talking from the indonesian side, are currency is less compelled than many currencies and we need to weaken our competitive currency. haslinda: thank you so much for your insights. meeting him in person for the first time in three years, that is pretty cool. chairman at bank. yvonne: it is great to have those in-person conversations good we felt that last year.
david: just like that we are back and just like that, let's get it back to singapore. haslinda standing by with her next guest. haslinda: well, that's right. sean kidney, ceo of climate bonds initiative. the world's number one certifier of green debt. good to have you with us. sean: and it's the color of money. haslinda: the color of money and the color of the future. the thing is, so many concerns out there. slowing economy. the climate seems to be taking a backseat. when it comes to green bonds, is there an increase, a decrease,
plateauing? sean: while economists are dealing with crisis, what they are doing is increasing their exposure. increasing their investment. the kind of green technologies we need to see. europe, way up, india, way up. why? gas price volatility is freaking everyone out. now, unlike five years ago, there is an alternative where energy is cheaper and can be more places in the world. you are seeing the gas prices, they are spiking. the cost of fuel is freaking people out toward green and green bonds going through the roof. haslinda: and asia is kind of leading the pack in a way. what is driving that? sean: investor demand. everything is investor demand and because investors, you understand, there's two things going on for first, there is the concern around climate change. plus, they also see governments -- the climate summit made a
huge difference amongst investors. the view is the shape of the future has now been decided. the only question is the speed which it will take to get there. and that leaves lots of room for investment positioning. haslinda: the thing is, right now, there is a lot of capitalism where money is headed, whether it is green, whether it is in not. there is a lot to do with the greater regulation as well. how is that playing out? sean: it is playing out really well. people are freaked out because every government now is trying to provide clear guidance to a market on what qualifies and it looks different. in indonesia, you don't wear one of these things when you go to a meeting. and the underlying principles if you look at the g20 principles for taxonomies for example, they are very clear. so really, it is noise. in practice, the shift is very clear. the guidance is clear. the understanding of what we have to do is very clear and the
demand -- well, let me just say in asia, green bonds this year, all corporate bonds, great. last year it was when he 5%. haslinda: where are the biggest opportunities in the next 12 to 24 months? sean: green buildings, 40% of the missions reductions. -- emissions reductions. green buildings are a part of the picture and the appetite is messy. you will see a repercussion in portfolios to high-performance in terms of energy. transport, where we already see this extraordinary shift. mass transit is more important. look at china's high-speed rail think why isn't there one of those in every country in the world? there will be in 20 years time. rishaad: sean, i would just like to get a sense of the criticism that green bonds do get sometimes.
a, that they are more expensive than they should be. and the second one is how would you then stop them being used for greenwashing purposes? sean: they are not more expensive. green bonds perform better. pricing is a rule for the primary. there are more valuable to investors in a cyclical market because they hold their value. green bonds hold their value. if you remember the quote, he made money not from business yield but making sure he never lost money. green bonds are the perfect instrument. so that part is going really well. the greenwashing part, there is not an anxiety about it. most of the anxiety is because people are doing stuff not understanding how ambitious they have been. we look at the 2030 target to achieve globally. these are really drastic. so capping emissions, not good enough. we need to be looking etc. etc.
financial leaders investment summit. a big panel of guests talking about navigating through this uncertainty. luke ellis will be speaking in that panel. a lot of things going on today. rishaad: you two were there yesterday. there was a buzz about what was going on on the ground. there's always tons of uncertainty. if there wasn't some certainty, we wouldn't have markets. the hong kong monetary authority conference taking place. david: we will get you guys updated on what's going on. one of the key takeaways from yesterday was hearing from mainland chinese regulators talking about some of the key issues, addressing that they are aware of these pain points in the economy, watching them closely. this acknowledgment is that hong
kong can go ahead. yvonne: also, look forward. also, don't listen to the american press they said and focus on what china is doing. that was the latest line we got yesterday. i thought what luke ellis said was quite telling as well. very insightful from what he said yesterday in our interview, talking about the recession in the u.s. being inevitable to curb inflation. what it's going to take to push that inflation genie back in the bottle. rishaad: we have these pictures there. quickly checking on how japan did close. 3/10 of 1% down. we've just seen what's happening in the rest of the region in tokyo. we are looking at some of that talk out there about the covid zero policies in china being altered, perhaps made less rigorous. that's being dispelled.
you're taking a look at reopening stocks here? david: the further we get from that social media post, the more dated that gets, in the absence of anything that confirms that narrative, you will get headwinds running into this market which we are getting today in some ways. some of the stocks and focus there. reopening index is down 3%. flip the boards if we can. have a look at that. the apple story. 3000 nationwide cases. we had the three handle across china right now. korean defense shares on the back of what the north has been launching since yesterday. three more today. back to the china story. the lack of more concrete details on what's going on there. yvonne: continuing to bring
volatility to these markets. social media going nuts about possible signs, although unconfirmed, where these messages were coming from. some sort of reopening committee. policymakers trying to play that down yesterday. the top health body says the zero tolerance approach remains the oldman strategy after those unverified posts. let's bring in charlie zhu. also sofia horta e costa. what is the latest we are hearing when it comes to covid zero? charlie: as you mentioned just now, the national health commission put out a statement last night saying the covid zero policy is still here to stay. they are going to continue to stick to the policy which means they will still continue to take drastic measures to quickly put
down any virus outbreak. that's dashing hopes of investors that the policy would be used anytime soon. there's been a lot of speculation and stock markets are that. so i think based on what they have said repeatedly before the party congress, there is no way china will give up the policy anytime soon. if they are going to do that, they are going to do it step-by-step. lots of things need to happen before chinese is the policy, including for example the posting of the vaccination rate among the elderly of the nation. they have said so many times that if china opened up, adopting the lying flat approach which is what a lot of the western countries have been doing, there will be a lot of deaths. one million deaths. david: right.
the market overlay. you wrote a fantastic piece today in terms of how difficult it is to remain short in the chinese market. we are simply a news report away from those shorts getting burned. sofia: exactly. this is the volatility traders market. yes, there was hope that there would be some kind of pivot from china. but it's not really a real hope. when the market moves, it moves incredibly quickly in china. there's a sense that you don't want to miss out. people know that china will eventually have to start repealing some of the strictest closes -- covid measures. that will be such a huge market event. you don't want to be on the wrong side of the trade. this market can be incredibly painful. people had just bought last week. the hang seng index is now the
most volatile one in the world. you can make money in this market but it's a very tricky market to play. really, the lesson from the past two weeks has been really being positioned one way on china is a difficult thing to do right now. rishaad: getting back to china here. these lockdowns are existing around the country. you are experiencing them. how severe are they? how much economic damage are they creating on the ground? charlie: we feel the implementation of covid zero on the ground has tightened. for example, i've been under lockdown in my residential compound for about seven days because of detection of just one case near where i live. similar things are happening elsewhere. you may have seen reports about foxconn factory in central china , the biggest assembler of
apple iphones, the whole district has been locked down. it will be locked down for seven days. that raises the question, will it disrupt the supply chain? they've said that all the workers will work in a bubble environment, limiting contact with the rest of the world. it's a question how they are going to handle the components, the product out of the factory. the economy is under a lot of pressure because of covid zero policies. the latest pmi data looks like this is going to continue unless the policy is changed. david: i mean, we saw what happened at disneyland in shanghai. to your point, is the
uncertainty that you might get locked down or trapped somewhere , is that still a big reason why people aren't moving about as much? what are you seeing exactly? what are you seeing on the ground? charlie: exactly. a lot of people have canceled their holiday trips or business trips because of concerns about being locked down in the place where they are going to or concerns about being put under lockdown where they could return to their home base. this is definitely weighing on people's minds. some of my colleagues have experienced that recently. it's not because the covid lockdown protocol. if there's one single case in the district, the whole area
will be put under lockdown. if the case is in their apartment or hotel room for example, that's quite scary. yvonne: despite all that, we are seeing southbound flows to hong kong being the biggest influence since march. mainland investors buying stocks for up to 20 straight days, the longest winning streak since december. what's driving that? sofia: there's a currency play. the yuan is weakening. the pboc set a weaker fixed today, saying it is comfortable with weakness. i think it's also a question of what's in the price. when the china enterprises index is trading at the lowest level since 2005, there will be inevitably dip buying. it's also a market that is incredibly underpriced versus mainland markets. what you face with that choice, there might be evaluation there. if markets find a positive
signal, it doesn't really take much for the markets to move higher. mainland money tends to come before a real rally. it could be a leading indicator as well. david: all right. all things china. this just sprung up right now. in the currency markets, when you take a look at hong kong dollar and the yuan, we are 7% parity. not that we will get there anytime soon. the other thing that's happening is, with the fed raising interest rates and hong kong following suit, you might have missed this. it might take some pressure off of the hong kong dollar for now. any relief rally or any drop on
dollar hong kong dollar could remain temporary if you will. the broader story is that we are trying to reprice the fed at the terminal rate. that's why this is probably flipped. watch this closely. rishaad: let's have a look at the first word news headlines. a new phase in the campaign to regain control of inflation. u.s. interest rates going higher than projected. it could soon involve smaller hikes. powell saying there still some way to go before policy is are strict of enough. >> at some point, it will become appropriate to slow the pace.
that time is coming. it may come as soon as the next meeting or the one after that. no decision has been made. rishaad: -- near where the disaster happen. authorities released records of frantic emergency calls showing police had almost four hours of warning about the growing crowd crash. china and pakistan have agreed to launch a high-speed rail project that could cost almost $10 billion. the prime ministers office confirming the deal after a meeting in beijing. china slowing some of its lending due to growth concerns. if eob is government has agreed to renew a cease-fire, raising hopes that an end to the civil war might be insight. representatives signed the
rishaad: your back with bloomberg markets as we head to the -- haslinda amin is with our next guest who was chief business officer at google x. haslinda: that's right. he's the founder of one billion happy. that's where i want to start off this conversation. good to have you with us. mo: thank you. haslinda: what was the motivation? mo: one billion happy is motivated by two things. one is the upward trend of stress and unhappiness in the world. look at us. so many people engaged in such an important conversation but that leaves within us as humans the burden of stress and unhappiness. that doesn't allow us to perform
as good as we can. the other is our social intelligence and how human happiness and human behavior is going to affect the behavior of the machines, the ethics of the machines and how that's going to reflect back to us. i started one million happy in 2018. i had the objective of creating a change that not only makes us a little happier but also reflex our future. haslinda: how do you define happy? what are the metrics? how do you know if you are happy? mo: as an engineer, that was the most important milestone in my research. what is happy? if i don't know what it is, it could be right here next to me and i can't find it. i know it sounds weird. i sourced it was an equation. happiness is so predictable. and preventable. it actually follows a mathematical equation. it is equal to or greater than
the difference between the events of your of -- life and your expectations. it's a comparison that happens in your brain between what is now and how i want now to be. look at the current economic environment. for some of us, we are panicking and running around like crazy. for others who have seen economic crisis is before, we expect that to happen and we are prepared for it. we can find peaceful contentment as we deal with the situation. that's happiness. it's not fun. it's not excitement about something. happiness itself is calm and peaceful. i can address the situations in my life with the rigor and calm that i need. haslinda: how do we get to happy? how does ai play that role for us? mo: in the current life we are living, before ai takes over completely which is not that far away. ai is going to be the boss completely within seven years.
most people don't realize that. in our current environment, as much as people hate me when i say that, happiness is a choice. it's a choice because your perception of the event is manufactured by your brain. your expectations are set by your brain. being in charge of those, like we are in charge of our trading decisions or are investment decisions, gives you a reality of life that most of the time is not that bad. if anyone is watching us today, they are by definition successful, they are intelligent, they have a proper tv screen, a roof on top of their head. they are probably not starving to death. life is 99% of the time ok. when you see it that way, that calms discontent. the other way of looking at it is to start reacting to everything that comes your way. by definition, that's not only going to make you fail, it's also going to make you miserable. rishaad: very quickly here.
you are saying by 2049, ai will be one billion times more intelligent than humans. that's one part of it. that may pose a danger to society. the algorithms which have made or created artificial intelligence have been done by humans themselves. elements of motivated bias and also those seeds of unhappiness can be launched deep into those codes. how does this affect the trajectory? mo: that's very true. by 2029, the smartest being on planet earth is going to be a machine. by 2045, we think the smartest being will be a billion times smarter than humans. this is in comparison to the intelligence of einstein compared to a fly. the interesting side of this is that when we've coded machines until we started of -- artificial intelligence, we told them everything they should do.
once artificial intelligence started, those machines are a thomas. they develop their own intelligence. accordingly, they can only be influenced. what are we influencing them with? unfortunately, the trend in our words today is to prioritize negativity. most of the time, whether mainstream media or social media, when we portray things, we portray the things that are worthy of attention. we talk about the one company that didn't do very well today but not the other million companies that did well. that bias is making it look like everything in our life is negative. that's not the truth. artificial intelligence is intelligent enough to recognize that. if enough of us can actually show our truth, if we show that we want to be happy, that we have compassion for others, that we have positive feelings of love and other feelings, if only 1% of us can portray that, it's enough to instill doubt in the
minds of the machines that humans are not all negative. when you see it that way, the way i defined ai today is analogous to a 1.5-year-old infant. a billion times smarter than us in 2045 is almost a superpower. it's like we are raising superman. we might as well raise superman with proper ethics, like the parents that adopted superman raised him as an infant with superpowers with ethics so that he becomes superman and not a super villain. mo: interesting conversation. yvonne: yes. how to warm up the robots. great conversation. thank you so much. north korea fires more missiles including one that sparked an alert in japan. we have an update next. this is bloomberg. ♪
sangmi: north korea fired three ballistic missiles including one long-range rocket that could actually be mounted with nuclear warheads and hit u.s. territory. it actually triggered an alarm in japan and told the residence to take shelter. it's not the first time this has happened. a month ago, this happened again. the defense ministry from japan corrected themselves and said it did not fly over japan but it fell in the sea near japan. this does follow the largest barrage of missile launches yesterday when north korea fired at least 23 missiles which included one that actually flew over the nautical sea border with south korea. also causing an alert on an island in korea. that was a chaotic time for the residents there. south korea is mourning the tragic death, the crowd crushed
over the weekend. also, this is bad for the escalation and provocations are unprecedented from north korea. david: thank you for wrapping all of those things for us. similar trajectory, up and then down. three days up, one day down. in fact, we are at session those on the benchmark on the back of that non-pivot from the fed. you could say even a pivot up. pivot light. there we go. [laughter] something that market doesn't need. this is bloomberg. ♪
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