tv Bloomberg Daybreak Asia Bloomberg November 3, 2022 7:00pm-9:00pm EDT
>> >> you are watching daybreak: asia live from new york, sydney, and singapore counting down to opens in tokyo and so. >> australia is online. asian trade is facing headwinds from a new fears that a hawkish fed may trigger global recession. a key segment of the treasury yield curve is in forwarding to a four decade extreme. apple joins austerity as rising rates and a sluggish demand prompt job cuts and hiring slowdowns. the hong kong rugby seven is returning after three years as the city tries to sell the message it is open for business. we are getting continued bank earnings from singapore. this is what we are seeing when it comes to ocbc numbers. we had numbers from dbs yesterday. we are seeing in the fourth quarter, the margin is above two .1%, on track to deliver 2022 targets.
net income the third quarter $1.61 billion. eating expectations of $1.5 billion. when it comes to the interest margin numbers, the total income, $3.15 billion. estimates were for $3 billion. we are watching wolf management threes at $179 million. we saw weakness for wolf management from dbs numbers. they may remain watchful for near-term downside risk including inflationary pressures being specifically pointed out there. the nonperforming loans ratio is 1.2%, down from 1.39%. roundly, strong numbers from ocbc. shares are up 4.2% year to date. the broader index has been flat over that time. >> locale u.s. futures are trading at the asian open.
we saw pressure in the new york session with the s&p 500 losing ground for fourth consecutive session. after hours we are watching nasdaq futures. apple may be halting hiring in roles outside r&d area apple is taking -- r&d. apple is taking a hit after hours. big tech was already taking a hit in the regular session given that yields resumed gains. the deepest inversion in four decades. we continue to speculate about what the fed will do next. hawkish rhetoric is coming from fed officials. we continue to watch crude prices. they are under pressure. they were down in the new york session given broad risk off sentiment. below $88 per barrel. all eyes are on jobs numbers as we watch jobless claims in new york, down slightly, but at
levels we have not seen in a very long time. >> we are just getting to the start of trading in sydney. >> talking about the open for the a a sex 200. -- the asx 200. we are a little lower, extending big drops in the prior session. it is down to fears that the fed could be hiking to a recession. across the board, the aussie dollar is weakening slightly over the last few sessions. the set up for the rest of the asian region, risk off today. particularly japan at the open in the next hour. it was a shot yesterday for public holiday. a bit of catch-up could be in order. kiwi stocks are down .5%. >> let's bring in our chief rates correspondent for asia garfield reynolds and are global
economics and policy editor kathleen hays. garfield, the yield situation. the two, the 10 inversion the most extreme in four decades. what we expect from the jobs numbers, more selling? >> we pretty much ado unless there is a fairly severe downside surprise. looking at the expectations, the consensus is for a slightly softer report aligned with the left -- the last time around, slightly softer. if it comes in at consensus, 3.6 unemployment, that is not enough to put jay powell off from the stance they outlined thursday. thursday our time, wednesday the u.s.. that being the case, you would need a significant jump. you would need jobs numbers coming in instead of just at
200,000, 100,000 or something. crucially, we would need a severe slowdown in wages. absent that, it's likely to be more of the same. the risk is skewed asymmetrically. if we get a slight of, jobless stays where it is, 3.5. if we get more hiring and wage growth, that could create severe reactions in a market that is fearful of what the fed is going to do. >> kathleen, what are we expecting the fed to do as they digest jobs numbers friday? >> there is a fear the fed is hiking to recession. i could put it in different words from some economists including larry summers, the treasury secretary. urging the fed to get more aggressive run rate hikes for a long time. you may not get inflation down without a recession. inflation this i has never gone down without a recession. that is the point of comparing the yield curve of 40 years ago.
maybe that is because inflation is where it was 40 years ago. with jay powell having said it is an overheated job market, we look for signs it's cooling off. this will show to most economists and the fed that so far the labor market is as tight as the latest jobless claims would show. payroll, the estimate is just under 200,000. unemployment is up 3.6%. when people start looking for jobs again, when they enter the labor before it could come up before they get that job they are unemployed and that is why sometimes the unemployment rate rises. year-over-year, 4.7%. the average going into the recession, the 2020 recession, was 2.5%. it was not long ago it was so much lower. it shot up. for the fed, the big immediate question is, you have done 75
basis points, what about december? would any cooling suggest it is time to do 50? as jay powell said, there is a long way to go and we will look at more numbers to see when and if they can make the hikes smaller and when they can pause. >> when it comes to the boe, it was interesting. the difference and similarities of the fed and boe trying to navigate and guide market expectation in different ways. for the bank of england, the economy is already endured a recession. it has been hit by the war in ukraine, the jump in gas prices across the continent. on the island of the united kingdom, they are already in a difficult position because their inflation rate is even higher than the u.s. and they have a weaker economy. that's why they did the 75 basis
point rate hike. it was a 7-2 vote unlike the last meeting were only two people voted for 75 points. now the bank of england sees a shyer -- shallower rate hike path than the market does, pricing in something like 5% at the height of the cycle. andrew bailey went out of his way to calm expectations. >> the bankrate required to return inflation sustainably to target is shallower than that priced into financial markets. >> he spoke exclusively to bloomberg television. those were prepared remarks after the decision was announced. it shows a clear message.
this is not off-the-cuff. he wants people to know. 6% compared. if they do not get the new fiscal plan from sunak and his team, jeremy hunt, for two more weeks. how stringent and austere will it be? that could affect the boe rate path ahead. >> garfield, we have inflation numbers out of asia today not to mention the rbn policy statement. what will be important in markets? >> today the main thing that is important for markets is the fed and payrolls looking forward. it is hard to get too excited on the bond and currency front. you have the difficulty of it being overwritten by the fed. you only have to look at the way
the australian dollar has underperformed the new zealand dollar because of the rba is taking a softer stance than the rbnz but both the aussie dollar and kiwi dollar are down by a lot. the main thing we are looking for in this space today is japan, stocks when they come back, and the bond market, will there be pressure on the boj to come in to keep that to year yield under .25 again? and the yen. it has held up pretty well despite what the fed is saying and markets are pricing. it is less than 150. stronger than ¥150 per dollar. that will remain a key issue if anything in the asian space today said soft fresh declines in the again, it will -- in the yen. >> let's get to vonnie quinn with first word headlines. >> the u.s. and south korea
warned north korea that using a north -- eight nuclear weapon against allied nations would result in the end of the camry shame after a series of north korean missile launches including a test thursday. the u.s. and south korea attended a joint briefing in washington that they would extend the military drills pyongyang calls provocation. >> we have decided to extend vigilance storm. that is our long scheduled combined training exercise to further bolster our readiness. >> sources tell bloomberg the eu is testing the feasibility of using billions of dollars of russian central bank assets to help ukraine's reconstruction. legal experts are looking into possible options, focusing on how to sees about $3 billion of the central bank of russia's reserves that were frozen by the eu and other allies.
the former pakistani minister is stable following surgery to remove bullet fragments. he was shot in the leg thursday at a political rally on eastern punjab. his pdi party says he blames the prime minister and his administration for the attack. his government condemned the incident and called for an investigation. at least one bystander was killed in the gunfire. >> ecb president christine lagarde says there is still a ways to go on raising interest rates to counter record inflation. christine lagarde says the ecb will use all instruments to bring it back to a 2% target. she said while a mild recession as possible, it would not be sufficient to tame inflation. the euro zone hit 10.7% last month. global news 24 hours a day on air and on bloomberg quick take powered by more than 2700 journalists and anaylsts in over 120 countries. . i am vonnie quinn, this is bloomberg. >> we have more to come on daybreak: asia as we continue to
australian and new zealand bonds is contrasted by steep intraday moves in treasuries. the 210 and version reaching the most extreme levels in decades. we are seeing bonds rising a little bit when it comes to australia. the yield curve is steady with maturities across the curve little changed in friday morning trading. we are seeing the aussie dollar largely unchanged, just under 63 u.s. cents. we are waiting on the reserve bank quarterly statement on monetary policy as well. >> our next guest is cautious on equities but likes u.s. treasuries and rate bonds, of bnp paribas wealth management. is this a call on quality and income,? what happens when we see pressure on bonds again?
>> it is a relative call, obviously, for now. we are cautious on equities. there is still a lot of uncertainty, especially, how long or how high it will be. we have an interest rate hike. next year there is a high chance for the u.s. to go into recession. for now, we think no matter the extent of the drawdown, the p multiples, their earnings estimates, the credit spreads. those indicators have not fallen back to previous recessionary levels. we worry about equities. compared to u.s. treasuries and also develops market investment bonds, now they are paying
attractive yields that we have not seen for many years. the last time was 2004. the u.s. treasury is paying like 4% plus. some u.s. investment rate bonds are paying 5% or 6%. we think they are relatively attractive asset classes. >> if you are expecting a u.s. recession next year, when do you expect the fed to start decelerating? it has been a hawkish fed putting pressure on bonds and the broader equity market as well. >> we expect, especially for the december meeting, that they may slow the rate hike to 50 basis points. and next water, next year, it could be 25 basis points. the terminal weight could be around 75%.
then we'll see a pause. we are expecting the u.s. going into a recession second quarter next year. >> when you look at the signs of dysfunction already trading in u.s. treasury and bond markets, is there a greater chance, as you say, of a policy missteps, over tightening, and a potential credit event? >> this is the concern now for a lot of investors. especially when you look at the history. when the fed tightens, especially now, a very fast cycle, something could break. there are trends that we could see a credit event and this is one of the key risks. this is why u.s. treasury is a hedge the recession and also any
credit events, if that happens. >> i have to talk about china. it is quite perplexing to a lot of people. a third day of gains for u.s. listed chinese equities aren't reports that were first unverified and then -- on reports that were first unverified then reputed. is this money sitting on the sideline waiting for the offer to get in? >> there is still a lot of uncertainty on china. especially from an investor perspective. they are equating investing in china with a rising political risk premium. there is a lot of concern and uncertainty. we don't really have a good indication of when china will reopen again. i think that's the key.
we have been seeing outflows and money on the sideline. i think the key catalyst is, there are many signs of reopening. the path will be gradual, but his long as there is a clear direction -- as long as there is a clear direction i think the market will see a turnaround in investment sentiment. if we are seeing signs it has already bottomed out, this is another adequate sign. thirdly, in terms of a lot of the adr, i think we could maybe see preliminary findings by november or early december. i think that is key. >> grace tam chief investment advisor at bnp paribas wealth management. get the stories you need to know
they will eliminate 13% of staff in front of their report next week. looking at a number of companies again either with a hiring freeze or cut back. the red on the screen for your today performance on the stock says it all up, and one survey out there indicates job cut announcements in general are up 40% year-over-year in october with more layoffs supposedly on the way. haidi: we had that scope yesterday when it comes to twitter and plan to cuts under elon musk, and now we are hearing reports about other extreme cost-cutting when it comes to whether spending as well. >> writers -- reuters out with reports and twitter is been directed -- cut $1 billion annually by slashing expenses on cloud and servers. bloomberg has been reporting extensively on the drumbeat of layoffs, sources saying half the
workforce, around 3700 people will be let go on friday, and we are told musk himself once to deliver the word to staffers on friday. we are told he is asking those who remain on staff to come back to the office, went to change policies and get rid of that once a month rest day, something he did not like. back to go. haidi: su keenan with the latest and in this new era of tech austerity. the route in bonds is spreading. we take a closer look as to when this is a wake-up call for investors. --
today, nobody should read into it that is the new norm. people should not be surprised when they see that we are looking at things were different lenses. haidi: the bank of the governor and really on the central bank's rate hike, that was a 75 basis point move, but officials signaled this is a once off in a smaller pace of rate hikes coming in months ahead. in terms of market reaction, the pound dropping as much as 2%, the most since early october, now trading fairly steady. it investors concerned the boe is not being aggressive enough to fully bring inflation, already running over 10% back under control. the 30 year yield is the most sensitive to consumer prices. we saw that jumping as much as 20 basis points with boe signaling perhaps markets are getting ahead of themselves at where they are pricing the peak iterates.
that could be lower than what is being seen by investors. let's take a look at broader asian set up, asx 200 half an hour into trading planning for a second straight session. the broader concern around it investors is that the fed could be hiking into recession here. we had jobless claims supporting the need for the fed to stay aggressive. it cannot take its foot off the gas just yet. japan futures coming online and singapore guiding for a lower start. japan's reopening after a public holiday thursday, down to these concerns around the recessionary outlook, the outlook for big tech given we saw apple putting a pause on job hiring there. china could be one of the bright spots for us, given we did see china stops in new york rallying for a third straight session. haidi: that report on a period of austerity and a pause in hiring for apple potentially having huge market implications.
let's get you over to vonnie quinn. >> be because you guess where to make the yuan exchange rate more flexible. in a statement of governor vowed to safeguard the currency's stability and facilitate economic growth. in contrast to the fed up tightening to be because he easing since has helped push the yuan to is was level since 2007. a chinese rocket booster is said to make an uncontrolled reentry to the atmosphere on friday and pieces good question worth. china says there is little danger from falling debris, but the u.s. and europe says the risk of injury on the ground is still higher than what is acceptable. it is the fourth time in two years that a booster has crashed back to earth. jeff bezos is said to be interested in bidding for the nfl's washington commanders with jay-z as a possible investor. they are exploring options, including a sale of the commanders weeks after facing renewed record to step down. bezos's personal fortune could
make it hard for other bidders to compete. president bolsonaro of brazil as called and his supporters to dismantle hundreds of roadblocks. he says they are harming the economy and are not a legitimate form of dissent. he said holding protest elsewhere is very welcome. bolsonaro supporters who refuse to accept his defeat in sunday's election have been taking to the streets across brazil. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i am vonnie quinn. this is bloomberg. shery: a chinese startup is said to unveil its first production ev car in the first quarter of next year fitted with sensors and cameras that can monitor at the driver's vital signs. the founder told bloomberg there is huge potential in china. >> beyonca is an idea that was formed a couple of years back
to detect you via cameras and sensors, and autonomous driving will take over and we will shepherd you into a safety lane. hopefully with all of the data and algorithms that we are deploying could help doctors to make a better judgment on you. >> in the chinese market you have this huge range, cars from very low to very high prices. where do you see this card fitting in? >> we position the car in super premium or upper premium. we wanted to design a sporting -- sporty, sexy car and with all of the ai we are developing, we hope we have a chance to redefine what is a upper premium, super premium definition of premium car so to
speak. >> it sounds like you have a very ambitious vision for the future, and you talked a bit about the fundraising aspect of this. how is that going in terms of fundraising, and helping you need? >> pretty tough. globally, it is not the best timing, but we covered it. a lot of us, we came from professional backgrounds. we just need to manage this one step at a time hoping that things will get better, and we are hopeful things will get better. >> i also went to the rescue for your outlook on the china market more broadly. i think it september, ev sales were up 30% from one year ago, so obviously there is a lot of growth, but there are something like 200 electric car companies in china now. what do you see for the future?
is there enough business for 200 companies in this market? >> the chinese is the largest market in the world. if there is an opportunity and chance, this is the place, as a matter of fact. therefore, keep my fingers crossed. i have no doubt about it, but again, consolidation might happen, and i would not see consolidation in that bed way. consolidation means partnerships. haidi: founder and chairman speaking exclusively to our greater china senior executive editor. hong kong will be seven is said to return this weekend. our chief north asian correspondent stephen engle joins us from the arena. always such a chaotic and
vibrant time to be in hong kong. does the vibe feel the same three years on? >> we do not have the fence in the stands -- fans in the stands just yet. they are expecting 30,000 fans. by ordinance they can only be 85% capacity and tickets sold is 28,000. one thing that will be missing are a lot of those overseas fans that come your, that flock here this weekend for imbibing a little alcohol and business deals. it is a banker get together and a place where people have a good time. i went to walk down here, obviously it is empty right now and the stands will fill up for the first match after 3:00 p.m. today. everywhere you see red jackets over the seats indicates where you cannot sit.
overall not too many red seats. it will be packed and heaving. down there is the infamous south stands where a few alcoholic beverages might be drug, and that is the key. how will you police in hong kong what is a mask mandate outside? quietly people are saying if you eat and drink you do not have to wear a mask. i have been covering being at the rugby sevens for more than 30 years. you eat and drink all the time. so this is a good litmus test for how much elements hong kong authorities are going to have for a lot of dare i say drunken individuals having a good time. shery: you are reminding me of the good old days. i was there, you are right, there is no way that you can socially distance in that environment. what with the experience be like
for players as well? i remember they got to enjoy hong kong back then. >> that is right, unfortunately, they have all been put into a bubble, so they will not necessarily have the type of interaction with the city and that fans in years past. that is what is so great, i do not mean to be such a cheerleader, but it is an amazing weekend for those who have never been to the rugby sevens, is hong kong's pressure valve. it is a business city full of pressure, and this weekend is usually the time when you release some of that pressure and have a good time. everyone has a good time. when the french come out, there is some boeing. there is legacy hatred built up there but it is in good nature and good fun. we will have to see whether the old teams, e.g., -- fiji, new zealand.
fiji has the advantage including five victories over the last several years. we will have to see the 13 or 14 or 16 teams can give a good challenge. shery: rugby sevens is not about rugby, you were watching the games and then you go to the parties and the drinking, and then you go to -- the party scene in hong kong. have fun, stephen engle. coming up, a new report finds gender biases are caused a strain in the economy, about $80 billion a year. we discussed that next with deloitte access economics. this is bloomberg. ♪
haidi: a new report by deloitte as found colleges and unconscious biases based on gender good booze the australian economy by $80 billion a year. joining me know is a partner at deloitte access economics. i find this intriguing. we note greater inclusivity, greater diversity and representation comes with enormous economic benefits, but tell us about this report and the key findings. >> thank you so much for having me. this report starts in a sobering
place. it is in australia we are not doing as well as we could on many measures of participation and debate, then it boils down to the fact that it probably relates to the things that we think and say and believe about gender, the norms that we hold in society, which in australia are surprisingly conservative. then it takes over to something more positive and says actually we have the ability to change our minds. and in changing our minds, we have a workforce that is willing and able and here to participate more fully in the economy, and that translates to huge economic growth. haidi: part of the structural barriers to more women's participation, more meaningful for dissipation, elevation to leader levels, do you see that
being reflected in policy changes particularly as we get reforms about childcare? >> definitely, these are all positive, and what this report does is says, yes, structural changes important, but what is also important is how we react to that structural change. this happens between households, people and -- people and relationships talking to people. decisions about who goes to work, how often you go to work. this is about how the structural changes come to life and make a difference. shery: can you explain to us at the mechanics of this report, because it is always really difficult to qualify economic impact of something, and yet you measure the impact of gender norms. how do good -- how did you do that? >> it is incredibly difficult,
but what we do is a the things that your gender norms to about the economy is impact her decisions about how much you will participate in the workforce and when you do participate how that workforce towards you. are you going to work at all, are you going to work part-time as a female, and these are the choices you make, and these choices are impacted by the beliefs that you hold. and then when you are in the workforce, you rise to leadership positions, and all of these things are interlinked. the way that we translate it we sort of use things that we see in other countries as realistic and achievable benchmarks and say if we reached some of those things sooner, if we change faster and better in australia, what with the economic impact of that be? shery: so how much progress has australia made so far? >> on a few things, i am sad to
say that we have actually gone backwards. the sobering start of this report is to say in 2006 were we were 15 on the gender gap index, we have gone backwards. at the same time that we are going backwards it what the numbers are telling us, it also looks like it is going backwards in what we believe. younger generations are actually holding some of these more conservative views more strongly, which is really surprising. shery: really great report, and very sobering for us to follow the progress made for women. be sure to tune into bloomberg radio to hear more from the big newsmakers. get in-depth analysis from the daybreak team. listen to the app or on
because that it will be a temporary in quarters. lenovo cannot tell some of its most advanced computers in china. quarterly profit of more than doubled giving it more firepower to boosted investment in other businesses. the flagship firm for age's richest person sought revenue almost triple. adani enterprises stop as it serves more than 3500% in the past five years despite concerns over debt levels. tiger global management is pulling back from china and pausing future stock investments. sources tell bloomberg tiger trunk its portfolio percentage from the midteens to mid single digits over fears of geopolitical tensions and covid zero. it investors are to be focused on india and asia. shery: we are counting down to the start of trading tokyo and seoul. over in japan we get a company's
final services composite, preliminary pmi and composite pmi's both above 50 in expansion territory. tokyo and beijing are arranging a meeting between prime minister kishida and president xi. we are watching pictures of ribbons over the holiday with tensions simmering over north korea's missile launches. several -- a similar story in korea. the parliament defense committee will meet at 10:00 a.m. local time amid rising tensions. we are watching a finance minister holding an emergency academic meeting. among the companies reporting earnings are lotte shopping and kumho petrochemicals. haidi: a korean insurer's
decision to market collection -- let's get more from our guest. why was this event the catalyst? >> it was a very unusual event, it was the first such missed call since 2009 and south korea, and actually that spooked the markets, and we had a selloff in perpetual bonds across the region. shery: are we going to continue to see this uncertainty around the sector? >> we had under the company -- a nother company announced that it will miss a call as well and south korea, so that takes the grand total to two. that is unusual, and we are likely to see more tumbling bonds and more rattled investors
especially as this is part and parcel of the crisis in korea's short-term debt market. haidi: this is seen as a bit of a reality check. to what extent do we see a contagion having a more long-lasting impact? >> it is definitely a risk. it is quite often aware there are still some problems lying dormant is not always clear in advance. obviously, there is a property market crisis in china. there is property market trouble in vietnam. so far korea's it seems to be self generated and self-contained, but you never know who might have exposure where. we saw a bond selloff yesterday, so there is a potential or things to broad not. shery: kathleen bosley there
with the latest on south korea, take a look at other markets. we are seeing the asx 200 trading at the moment. take a look at those losses, .3 of 1% after we saw a slump of almost 2% already in the previous session. we are watching aussie yields as well jump. jump in exports, we are also waiting for the korea and japan open, nikkei futures under pressure, not surprising given that u.s. futures continued to lose ground after stocks already fell in the new york session, down for a fourth consecutive session already. a lot of concerns about fed tightening at a time when we are expecting job numbers to come out. jobless claims at near record lows, giving more fuel to chairman powell's reasoning.
haidi: it goes to whether we might see another bout of selling and treasuries, just remarkable huge move in intraday pricing action, and as we see the .2 10 curve moving to extremes we have not seen in years. we have not seen dramatic moves in australian and new zealand yields, we are watching for the quarterly policy update later on today. we are seeing relative stability across assets in this part of the world. we have to bend resuming trade in the friday session, south korea coming online in just a few minutes time. our next guest has a preference for cash. we will be speaking to steve brice. this is bloomberg. ♪ this is what it's like to have a comprehensive wealth plan with tax-smart investing strategies
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after four sessions of losses for u.s. stocks, investors trying to digest a hawkish fed against a dovish boe, and we have the rba policy statement coming up as well. haidi: all of these reports of potential belt-tightening and the tech sector, the report from apple putting a pause on irene and lyft, potential imminent job cuts at twitter, all of this casting a chill. is this the cold chill of winter in tech austerity and will that reverberate in asian suppliers. let's take a look at how we are setting up this final trading session of the week. annabelle: we are going for a lower start in asia, a lot of risk on the horizon, we have the open of japan, south korea and the start of trading forecast treasury. at the moment we are focusing on moves we have a two year and the 10 year given all of this talk about yield curve it aversion
because that earlier reach that gap. it is a very good indicator of recession risk on the horizon in around 812 to 18 month -- a 12 to 18 month period. the nikkei is off, it was shot yesterday for a public holiday session, so this is investors having the first test reactor the fed. we also have the open in korea, and as you are mentioning these moves in big tech have been weighing on sentiment, the nasdaq down for five straight sessions, futures going for a lower start. kosdaq operates in losses for the broader kospi. another playing into this is what we had in apple, they are planning a hiring freeze. korean won trading weaker at the start. asx 200 is one hour into the
trading session this morning, we are already seeing it lower at the start of trade, yields trading on changed -- unchanged. we have the rba policy statement due in about 30 minutes, and oil weaker today. traders focusing on recession risk rather than tight supplies we have in the market. shery: let's bring in our next guest, steve brice, ceo at charter wealth management. is this defensive positioning you have given uncertainty in the markets, and would bonds also plan to the portfolio? >> we are overweight cash. we are lower down in equities as we move toward a recession, around 75% positive. you mentioned the yield curve it aversion being at a record levels, but the three-month 10
year inverted as well, which is an important signal for recession to going forward. we like investment grade corporate credit both in markets and in asia. obviously yields we have seen over the course of the past 12 months as well as the spread widening that we have seen after attractive opportunity, getting much higher yields for that. it is a good place to hunker down. shery: if you are expecting a recession soon, what does that mean for the fed going forward? we continue to hear this hawkish rhetoric. will they need to prevent and how much will markets be pricing this in? when you have this yields differential hurting even more from asia's perspective? >> the fed has been extremely focused on inflation today.
it is looking at lagging indicators, which just increases the probability that we do see that recession, obviously focused on the job market. there is anecdotal evidence that hiring is slowing but we are creating way too many jobs for the fed to be worried about growth. they will be too late and you will have a lot of time to sit in the pipe that will push us into recession. that david is going to happen. we will be of 75 basis points to slower rate hikes. charlie seems very close, but we are still a ways from moving to easing tightness, so we will have to live with that tightening policy a little longer within. haidi: the broader macro recession might still be imminent, but when it comes to profit was edited we are starting to see that in terms of the last declining quarters for the s&p 500, excluding energy,
which is a big outlier. you think valuations at this point are looking pretty level? >> that is good question, because this year has been focused on lower evaluations while earnings continue to grow. the story for 2023, earnings do look vulnerable. last time i looked one week ago we are around 7%, 80% of growth for the u.s.. you could see evaluations being support. that requires not just the slowing of rate hikes, change of focus away from inflation to see evaluations offset that, and that is why we feel we do believe that at some point in the next 6 to 12 months there will be a huge buying opportunity and equities -- in equities. basically on this environment
where earnings growth is being revised down and estimates being revised down, and the fed is not ready to back off from tightening yet. haidi: i look at some of your china references and the clear line with policy priorities, tech and energy and the like. is this for investing post reopening of the economy? do you make on the price action we have seen this week based on these refuted reports? >> i think what is interesting is it did not take much positive rumors or news, whichever way you view it. we have seen weakness coming through their. what we are seeing when it comes to chinese equities as we are approaching pessimism now to try to time that is really
challenging in terms of getting the exact low, the sentiment for china is incredibly weak at the moment. so even less bad news or positive policy pronouncements would be supportive for the stock market. timing that is difficult, it is difficult to be too bearish on china as far as we are concerned. haidi: in light of the reality check from the fed this week and depending on what we get from jobs numbers for tomorrow, how much further upside do see per dollar strength? >> we will probably see a retest of recent highs. we have had big policy statements elsewhere as well. the u.k. was interesting where they obviously hiked by 75 basis points but backtrack and said we are not going to continue hiking at the space.
peak rates were not too far away from it. probably going to retest the highest next year. we do have a bullish outlook for the dollar. the dollar is close to multi-decade highs from a valuation perspective. at some point it will turn. we do not think we are at it yet. haidi: always great to chat with you. let's get you to belle. annabelle: this is a little bit of a catch of trade as well, given that japan was shot yesterday for a public holiday, but we have been tracking this barrage of missiles north korea has been firing over the course of the week, one of which was close enough to japan to spark an alert yesterday. in terms of the set up today, stocks mostly moving higher. north korea's moves a possible retaliation to u.s. and south
korea carrying out point military drills, which they said they plan to extend, and both the u.s. and south korea saying kim jong-un's regime is at risk if he does was already using nuclear weapons. we are also watching the tech sector this morning and japan, a bit of a day two reaction to what we had with the nasdaq declining for five straight sessions are a lot of concerns about broader woes facing the sector, and we are hearing reports apple could put a hiring freeze in ways or most departments. tech lower at the start of trade, apple reports, as the stock has declined around 10% over the past four sessions. shery: let's get the vonnie quinn. >> the u.s. and south korea for north korea's using a nuclear weapon against allied nations would result in the end of the kim regime. it came after a series of missile lunches, including the test on thursday of a suspected
icbm. the u.s. and south korean defense minister told watching today would extend military drills pyongyang calls a provocation. >> i have consulted with minister li and we have decided to extend vigilant storm, which is our long scheduled combined training exercises to further bolster our readiness and interoperability. >> sources tell bloomberg ve was studying the feasibility of using billions of dollars to up ukraine's reconstructed efforts. the discussions are said to be a early stage with legal experts looking into possible options. they are focusing on how to cease $300 billion of russian's central bank reserves. the former pakistani prime minister is in stable condition following surgery to remove bullet fragments. imran khan was shot on thursday. is pretty says --
the government is condemned the incident and is calling for an investigation. police say at least one bystander was killed in the gunfire. the ecb president says that there is still a way to go on raising interest rates to counter record inflation. she says ecb will use all of its instruments to bring it back to the 2% target and says while a mild recession as possible, it would not be sufficient to contain inflation. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i am vonnie quinn. this is bloomberg. ♪ shery: we map the future of fintech in the asia-pacific in our exclusive conversation with the president and ceo of global telecom. a hawkish fed stoking fears of a deeper u.s. recession ahead of friday's jobs data.
latest. are we going to see that cooling-off? kathleen: the consent is is a little bit, but probably for jay powell and company, that is going to be it is not quite as hot, but it is not cool yet. let's remember that jay powell explicitly referred to the u.s. labor market not just as tight overheated, and did to cool off so we can see wages not continuing to rise and see some leaf on inflation in the coming months. 195,000 is the estimate for payrolls, a step down from 263,000, but we will watch provisions from past months. that will be another thing that goes into this assessment on just how hot operation is, unemployment expected to go up to 3.6%, still a 50 year low, tighter than the fed things that it needs to be in order to bring
down inflation. a lot of people think it needs to be 4% or higher. average hourly earnings, 0.3% monthly basis, but over the year at .7%, but if you putting in context, for the pandemic -- before the pandemic it was half that. a couple of other things to put on the table, jobless claims, the latest numbers went down. that is another number not showing any signs of a market getting softer. just last week we saw a survey that looks at how many job openings there are. it did not fall to 9.8 million in october, it went up to 10.8. it had been at 10.3. 1.9 million jobs open for every worker looking for a job. it is another sign things have
not shifted. it will not impress the fed, investors much when they look at it, and the stronger labor market will be bad news for stocks and bond yields one would think. haidi: we were talking earlier about how we were hearing for the potential on job cuts and one of the economist we spoke to, this is the first step of what the fed wants to see, right? is this the beginning of potentially a cooling? >> it could be. it has been so very tight, and the surprises how come it has not cooled off more. there is resilience in the economy, retail sales have not been that bad. we will watch earnings and so many things from companies down the road. here is jay powell at is is conference yesterday. what did he do? one of the dumbest -- dovish
things you did is we could consider a50 basis point rate hike later in the year. at the very least critical off for the fed to say 50 basis points, lots of aggressive for a while is fine. he said policy is not restrictive enough yet and he said so far labor market softening is not evident. another think you will be looking for, bloomberg economics says if you want to see if the job market is cooling enough for the fed, watch wages. see how much it slows down because that is one of the main concerns about inflation. if wages keep rising as much as they have it will be awfully hard to cool down inflation. >> kathleen hays, a big week for central banks, we saw the interesting communication from ble opposite of what we are from jay powell about that andrew bailey thinks the market is at
extremes when it comes to pricing expectations for future rate hikes. european stock futures down by just .25 of 1% following the decline that we saw after we heard from fed chair powell, the reaction session and real estate, automakers some of the big decliners. we are also seeing german dax futures looking to the downside as well. the philippine central bank will match the 75 basis point i. the philippine central bank governor felipe medalla joins us in the next hour. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> to clarify what will be the basis of our decisions, first and foremost will be the inflation outlook. >> if inflation is going to persist higher than we project now, this will have an effect on households' income, and therefore will contribute to reduction in activity next year. >> based on the current addictions, the current outlook for inflation, we are still of the view that there will be more need for rate hikes. >> at the beginning of 2020 three, possibly a mild recession, but we do not believe the researcher to will be sufficient to rid pain -- contain inflation. haidi: ecb officials addressing the likelihood of an economic downturn. gentler souls his brain germany's biggest brands to underscore the country's close economic ties.
he will have to navigate growing concerns about europe's broader dependence on beijing. let's get more from john liu. this is one of the deepest and oldest trade and diplomatic relationships beijing as with the west. there is increasing pressure on germany especially from washington. >> i think there is an obvious difference of opinion and terms of how to deal with china. europe is trying to take a more nuanced approach, less confrontational than the one washington is chosen. even within europe there is a question about whether there was a difference between how germany and france went to read this relationship. earlier this year there was talking about a french and german joint visit. german chancellor souls -- scho lz said he hoped to talk to president xi jinping and figure out how the relationship should
be, given the changes china is undertaken, given the changes in the world, at least of which is garza's invasion of ukraine. -- russia's invasion of ukraine. a number of ceos will be there, bmw. beyond tech is one people are watching closely. they have an agreement to sell their vaccine in china, which has not happened. there is expectation, hope that something will come of this visit. shery: there is expectation and hope from investors about what could be coming up at the strings of hominis party meetings. we did not get that much when the party congress, did we? >> the party congress was largely an always has been mostly about personnel. the policy side of governing china, i think we will get
better picture of that will beget the politburo meeting later in september, which should precede the economic work meeting, which happens every year. at that meeting senior leadership will plot at what they want to do for the coming year in the economy, so we will get a sense of priorities. is there going to be more stimulus, a continued effort to hold back flooding in the system because there will be more debt. obviously the biggest question is what is going to happen with covid. shery: i was going to ask, does all of that implicitly lead us to where covid zero is going to go? >> i think that is the major thing hanging over the economy at the moment. it is less of an economic problem obviously then it is a health issue. as long as china as a relatively low number of elderly who have been vaccinated, as long as
china is worried about the ability of its health care system to handle a big spike in infections, leadership into beijing will tread extremely carefully. the actions we have seen lately is more lockdowns, more testing, more of the same. will that start to roll back? there is a lot of hope for it, but we have to see the actions before we take any difference of opinions. shery: john, good to have you with us. here is a check of the latest business flash headlines. a chinese electric start up beyonca telling a vehicle it says can monitor a driver's health was serious incidents like a heart attack. one model will be fitted with sensors and cameras to check vital signs and safely stop the car if the driver cannot. it plans to begin deliveries in 2024 and pricing to compete with bmw and porsche.
>> we are not making an ambulance here. we are making a premium car that contains smart ai to help people, and if we are able to do that with little steps, baby steps, i think perhaps that is an attempt to redefine the concept of premium car. shery: ocbc's profit beat estimates as the lender got a lift from higher interest rates. net income jumped 31% to $1.1 billion from when you earlier. ocbc joins rivals and balancing higher profits from rising interest rates with the downturn in fees for managing but the client's money. starbucks shares rose and trading after sales topped estimates. sales rose 7% compared with the
average analyst' estimate. chinese comparable sales fell 16%, which was better-than-expected by wall street. in london judge has defined glencore -- ahs fined glencore for bribing officials to gain access to oil cargoes. they admitted seven counts of bribery. the traders and executives paid more than $28 million in bribes between 2011 and xfinity rewards is a program whose sole purpose is to say "thank you" with experiences big, small and once-in-a-lifetime. sometimes it's about cheering hard enough to shake the stadium! sometimes, it's as simple as movie night right here at home, on us.
cuts start on friday. we have seen a lot of speculation after the twitter takeover but elon musk, twitter saying the layoffs are designed to place twitter unhealthy path. there is putting twitter alongside many tech companies tapping the brakes on hiring or laying people off. given that we are worried about an upcoming recession. twitter confirming in an emailed to staff that the job cuts will start on friday, that the layoffs are designed to lease twitter unhealthy path coming after the elon musk takeover and shakeup of the social networking business that is no expected to pay half of his jobs. pmi numbers out of japan as well, we are getting the final four are -- final for october coming in at 52, slightly higher than services bmi.
the composite coming in at 51.8, marginally higher than the preliminary number. we are seeing two months of continued expansion in pmi numbers in japan at a time would we have seen asian factory slump in october given the global demand for merchandise goods as continued to weaken. we have seen taiwan registering the weakest bmi reading it over a decade, but japan considering services and pmi numbers and expansionary territory. haidi: take a look at the rba statement, this comes after we saw the 25 basis point i from the rba this week, market expectations looking like anything bigger than that in meetings to come will be a tough ask. we seeing in its monetary policy statement they see the wage index rising to 3% in december, talking about resuming outsized hikes were positive needed. saying this is not a preset path
when it comes to where the central bank goes in its inflation five. unemployment being seen it 3.25%, 4.25% by the time of december 2024 based on the cash rate easing back to 3.9% in december. rba says which price index shrinking. 2024 cpi, this is key, up 4.25% by december of next year. the stickier inflation level is still being seen, cpi at 3.25% for december 2023, that also being revised. that fits in with the broader outlook for weaker growth, higher unemployment. looking like it is close to the end of the rate hike cycle or at least the end of these outsized moves. annabelle: just as were
mentioning there, rba setting a very high bar for anything beyond a 25 basis point hike in the months ahead, and we saw that reflected in those moves, low yields for shorter duration. in terms of the set up for the rest of the asian session, the other factor we are watching closely is what is happening in china, pboc has been turning a different path to its essential big beers. throughout the week there has led to judge because she is in china possibly because, covid zero policies, could be eased in the months ahead, so stocks are being soared by that. also setting us up for a slightly more positive start for chinese shares in asia, talking the broader trend for stocks, because we are looking risk off throughout the session. if you bring up this terminal chart, what has been driving a
lot of that this week, because we actually saw stocks in china and hong kong snapping their two day rally in a prior session coming from southbound flows. chinese traders find the most hong kong shares over the course of this week since march of this year, down to a lot of optimism that we could see some kind of policy pivot on covid zero around march of next year. let's take a look at the broader set up, because we are after an hour into the trading session for japan and korea, and so far we are looking fairly risk off at least for the nikkei. ketchup given japan was shut on thursday for a public holiday. tech sector very much in focus, lines from twitter confirming they will start layoffs. we had reports apple could be putting a hiring freeze in place, so expected to be watching. nikkei trading down 1.6% down at the start of trade. shery: let's get the vonnie
quinn. >> the beginning but is up administrator raised by 75 basis points to 3%, its biggest increase in 33 years. officials are pushing back against market expectations for the skillet future increases, the following the path would induce a two year recession. governor andrew berry told us peak rates will be lower than is priced into financial markets. >> the fact that we did 75 today, we should read into it that is the new norm. i do not think people should be surprised when they see that we in the fed are looking at things through slightly different lenses. >> pboc has reaffirmed place to make the yuan exchange rate more acceptable. the about to safeguard currency's ability of fits within growth. in contrast to the fed tightening, pboc easing stance has after posting want to its lowest level since 2007. a chinese rock of is said to make an uncontrolled reentry to the atmosphere on friday, and
beaches good question with. china says that there is little danger from falling debris, but the u.s. and europe says the risk of injury on the ground is higher than what is acceptable. it is the fourth time in two years that a booster has crashed back to earth. jeff bezos who to be interested in bidding for the washington commanders, possibly with jc as an investor. millionaires are exploring options including a sale of the commanders weeks after facing the new pressure to step down. bezos' personal fortune could make it hard for other bidders to compete. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i am vonnie quinn. this is bloomberg. haidi: we are getting breaking news when it comes to as nbc -- smbc nikko admitting charges,
the president is to go without pay for six months according to reporting from nhk. at the moment where hearing that president will go with that is pay for six months, that he will not be paid for that period after smbc nikko securities admitted to charges of market manipulation following an investigation that led to employee arrests and penalties against one of the largest financial groups. they are accused of rubbing up prices for block offers, and we are hearing -- six of its employees have been indicted for propping up share prices in violation of financial laws in japan. we are looking ahead to a busy week for earnings in asia.
nintendo, softbank all set to release their latest reports. our reporter joins us now. let's set up with nintendo. >> in recent quarters, the chip shortage has affected so many companies. they did say they expect that to improve over the summer. as we come over to the key holiday season for switch sales that will be a focal point. we think nintendo will be pretty strong, they will in effect from the weak yen. we expect software sales to be strong too. shery: the biden demonstration controls concern for chinese chipmakers. i will this affect smic? >> they will be reporting on thursday after close of markets. they may start to ease off into
the fourth. the administration's controls are going to be a problem. the dressing 20 end of next year half of the advancement will be in advanced chip manufacturing. and that is likely to need suppliers from u.s. suppliers. if the control start to kick in, that could be a headwind on smic. haidi: softbank has been challenging to say the least. what are we expecting this quarter? >> softbank comes off of record loss last quarter, so we will have to see how well they have managed to adjust their investment portfolio and deal with foreign currency losses last time around. they are heavily invested in the tech sector. the division fund will be the
tea of softbank's earnings. the ceo is just doing a brief introduction at the earnings visitation. he will not be doing the full presentation, which is a step away from the norm. all eyes on the presentation and will be seen there. shery: interesting, gareth allen joining us. we map the future of fintech in the asia-pacific. our conversation with the president of loeb telecom. -- globe telecome. this is bloomberg. ♪
shery: you were watching "bloomberg daybreak: asia." we are headed toward the apec leaders meeting and we are putting the spotlight on the opportunities and challenges facing the grouping. among top priorities is boosting the digital economy, which proved so vital during the covid-19 pandemic. in southeast asia companies are tapping the growing e-commerce market as consumers adopt mobile and online services at a rapid pace. a recent study by google showing the region's internet economy is on track to hit $200 billion this year with about 20 million
new digital customers. haidi: the philippines' leading fintech provider is trying to leverage this market. they are orbiting start trading and its mobile wallet. the ceo spoke exclusively to us about what is next for gash -- gcash. >> we are trying to broaden a number of services that we provide. when gcash came about, it was to solve the problem of inclusion, access to services. over time we have developed payments and now it is the payment system in the philippines. and next of course, the things that people are never able to access, and trading on the stock exchange is one of them. the number of people trading in exchange. >> how big do you think this
retail stock trading market is potentially in two or three years, what kind of growth? >> i would not hazard a guess because it has never been done, it is uncharted waters. every time we put a service into gcash, the take-up rate is tremendous. hundreds of thousands come into months. something that has never been seen before, so i presume in the millions. hopefully double of what is going on in the exchange today or even triple. smaller amounts of money. >> retail investors have been propping up the market. do you envision the same thing happening in the philippines? >> it is aligned with what the philippine stock exchange once. to open access to their trading, which has never been done before
because it is limited. you have to go through a broker and you have to have a second deposit into the account. this way it is all done by gcash and you have no minimum deposits and everything them. >> a lot of fintech stocks are not profitable but gcash has gone the other way. have metrics change as a result of what you've seen in the fintech space? >> we saw it very early. i am an entrepreneur by heart, a venture capitalist as well. i always wondered how these companies can forever lose money. i told the team i would like for us to show really good academics, because if you are positive economics, when you scale to make money, we got profitable around mid 2021 and have sustained that.
i think it is a testament to how solid the businesses. there is a real business, not just one that raises money and keeps losing it. startups today have raised more money in their market cap. we do not want to be the company. went to build money not only for our market and constituents but also our shareholders who have invested in this business. haidi: ernest cu with haslinda amin at the singapore fintech festival. stay with us for more insight and analysis. we are counting down to apec. more ahead. this is bloomberg. ♪
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shery: hong kong's rugby seven is said to reserve this week and after three years with thousands of fans expected to back the stadium. it may not be the ruckus social event it was before the pandemic. stephen engle joins us live from the arena. talking about rugby seven makes me feel nostalgic. it seems dark today. i was going to be? >> i disagree with you that it might not be as raucous as years passed. it might be more ruckus because there is pent-up party demand after the pandemic and the
protest. it is the premier social event in hong kong. this is the kind of pressure valve for people in hong kong. this is a banking business center, and this is the one weekend of deer that expatriates and locals get together and release some of the pressure. as you can see in the stadium, no one is here now, but they will be here later in the afternoon. the south stands will be ruckus. the litmus test will be on the police and whether they let the party happen. supposedly you have to wear a mask unless you are eating and drinking. what he could at rugby seven -- what do you do at rugby seven? you drink a lot. they are branding this as our hong kong seven. there is capacity for 40,000
spectators, but by ordinance we can only have 85% capacity. that is why there are red sleeves over the backs of chairs where you are not allowed to say. there will be no social distancing here. there will be at least 28,000. there might be 34,000, that is the capacity limit based upon the ordinance. it is going to be a party, and you should be here. haidi: i think what shery meant is we are not the ruckus -- raucous partiers that we were when we were living in hong kong. you can make up for us. what is it like for players. big events, big sporting events as we have seen this week being attracted back to the city? >> this is going to be key. we have had the banker summit, the fintech week.
this culminates a week of opening up hong kong, so this will be a big test to see if we can return to some semblance of normalcy for hong kong. there are fundamental changes in hong kong, but we have to see if they just let things go as they used to or whether there will be police parading through this south stands -- through the south stands. i do not think so. we are being told we do not necessarily have to wear masks right now but that is a tricky subject and the city trying to find its way past the pandemic and the protester. we will have to see later today and this weekend and whether the weather holds. my first rugby seven was 30 years ago, and it was a mud bath. the entire pitch was just to sea of brown mud. you know what they say about the
rugby sevens, it is essentially a big party where a couple of rugby matches breakout in between. haidi: bloomberg's very own party animal. tiger global management is said to be pulling back on worries about geopolitical tensions and covid zero. let's bring in our chief china markets correspondent. this strikes me as interesting timing because we have been talking about the two pivots. one of them is the soap of a chinese covid zero pivot. why are some of these firms now giving up on china? >> that is a great question, and i think it has a lot to do with just how long this drawdown is been for chinese stocks. it has been the longest ride down in history by many measures. if you are a big china investor like tiger global, they are renowned for their early bets on
chinese internet stocks when sentiment was particularly low after the internet bubble burst. they tend to buy undid, but they are not doing it -- on dip but they are not doing it now. you have lost a lot of money if you have china in your portfolio. i think there is a sense of it is at are to be out of the market and hold that dry powder into be buying right now, because investors have been burned so many times in the past 18 months. you saw wall street saying now is the time to buy chinese stocks for cheap. since in the market i'm getting is let's just wait. it is better to be late then to be wrong. shery: we saw u.s. listed chinese stocks gained ground today. what are we expecting for trading? >> that was an interesting move in the golden dragon index because it came after a bad day in hong kong stocks.
i should say most of the short interest is actually on the golden dragon index, a lot of those names are heavily shorted by u.s. investors. it could have been a bit of a squeeze or covering of short positions. we could get a bit of a bounce. hong kong tends to follow what happens in the west. the key thing will be whether investors want to be long into the weekend, because we can get new set of china on the weekend, and that can change your entire investment view in a few days. as we saw this week when people were incredibly bearish on monday and incredibly bullish on tuesday and to paris again on thursday. it is such a volatile market, betting either way or having a strong view on chinese assets either way is a difficult thing to do. shery: our chief chinese markets
correspondent with the preview of how the markets will open as we had toured hong kong -- head toward hong kong and chinese markets trading. bloomberg is wound -- as learned apple may be causing hiring for jobs outside of research and development. we are watching tech broadly given the pressure we are seeing when it comes to some of those jobs. we discussed china's market as covid better the economy. the philippine central-bank governor also joins us live. this is bloomberg. ♪
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