tv Bloomberg Markets European Open Bloomberg November 30, 2022 3:00am-4:00am EST
calls for the fed to maintain its plans for rate hikes. hostile forces. chinese authorities pledge to crackdown on protesters angry about government covid policies. the imf says it may need to cut the nation's growth forecast. a brexit big bang. the u.k. will relax ring fencing rules for banks as the government looks to turbocharge the city of london. >> futures are seeing a little bit of a lift. ftse 100 futures gaining. we look at china, some of the restrictions for the economy. the big speech, jay powell on labor economics. tom: we are expecting further commentary from jay powell.
spanish ibex is up. in the u.k., the ftse 100 gaining 0.2%. the month of november has been the best month for the ftse 100 in around two how things are plg out cross as a. the dollar is a big talking point, the worst month i'm about 12 years, we continue to watch the fed, and the commentary from officials like fed chair jay powell. futures stateside pointing to modest gains of .2%. gains for the single currency in europe, 1.03, and inflation data out of france coming in higher than estimates. we will get the all-around figure for the euro zone later on. the u.s. 10-year 3.73, a move of 11 basis points, and more action in terms of sovereign debt in
the euro zone on the back of that inflation print out of france. money moving out, yields up for the boones and btp's. brent $84 a barrel, we will discuss that later in the show. i'm the lead up to opec+. officials on the u.k. are looking at relaxing the ring thing thing -- fencing. barclays up .6%, hsbc down .4%, lloyds getting 1% and natwest gaining .7%. what we're hearing from the reporting is that any relaxation is likely to be focused on the smaller lenders. francine: back to that france cpi, it is remaining elevated. it does seem to be testing some of what we heard about recessionary pressures. euro-dollar 1.0356, but if you look at that november france eu
harmonized, pretty much as expected, 7.1%, higher as we go into possible quarters of recession. the sectors on the move, i'm seeing quite a lot of green overall. industrials, health care amongst some of the ones that are gaining the most. raw materials also as well. there seems to be a general move to riskier assets today, as we also had data that was encouraging across the euro zone. let's get to our mliv managing editor mark cudmore, you are looking at u.k. stocks? mark: yes, fran. it is a nice day if you are trading market and i'm going to give you more good news. these rising stock markets are still very cheap at least when it comes to the u.k. this is the ftse 100 the last year, 10.1% since the middle of october. it kind of snuck up on me, the news flow in the u.k. has been
so bleak, both on the economics and politics side. maybe england's victory and the world cup has been positive in the short-term, but this is a impressive move. so is it time to sell? the u.k. economy is pretty bleak. two counterpoints. one is, the u.k. economy isn't necessarily reflected in the ftse 100. a weaker economy can mean weaker sterling, which can help ftse 100. so this is always a u.k. economy play. the next chart is a valuations chart. the best estimated blended pe ratio for the ftse 100 of last 10 years is still at a massive discount. yes, it has bounced passively -- massively over the last mont h. while the price index seems like it is at the top end of the range, and getting towards the all-time highs of 2018, on a valuations basis, this u.k.
stockmarket is still looking extraordinarily cheap. it is a good day if you are in markets. francine: positive news, as long as you have risk appetite. our bloomberg mliv managing editor, looking at past earnings for ftse 100 companies. tom: a countdown to be jay powell speech. ahead of that, the former new york president bill dudley and st. louis fed president james bullard have called for more rate hikes to tame inflation. francine: joining us now is the blackrock co. chief investment officer for fundamental equities, so much going on, what are you expecting to hear from jay powell later? nigel: i think there is a long way to go. we are seeing around this current time, peaking in inflation, but we believe the path will be slow on the downside through 2023. he will remain hawkish, i'm not sure he will be super impressed
by the recent rally in risk assets. it's probably going to be caution for markets we might hear from him later. tom: how would you characterize that rally in risk and equity markets, it's been pretty pronounced, the move into bonds over november. is this a bear market rally in equities? nigel: i think it is. people are looking for the pivot, the turn, they want this all to be over. i'm afraid this is going to last much longer people are expecting. this is a very different kind of environment and we've seen the last 45 plus years. this is a inflationary recession. the central banks are determined to reduce inflation, and that will take time. we will see goods inflation coming down, but the services inflation is going to be much stickier and difficult to control. rates are going to have to stay higher than the market is expecting.
and the impact on earnings as we go through 2023, and into 2024, we're still not pricing where we think those earnings will actually come. francine: this story is as long as time. it has been two or three quarters that equities don't seem to believe that fed participants when they say we need to hike more, even if inflation has peaked. nigel: there's still money around the system. you're still not seeing the real contraction, which is what central banks are trying to do. you've got to look at the 80's and 70's to have a reflective of this takes time. the central banks are controlling monetary policy, tightening the economy, that will slow the economy and lead to a reduction in inflationary pressures. the market is getting ahead of itself. unfortunately, this is another bear market rally. saying that, there are opportunities for long-term
investors to pick up stocks that have gotten very cheap. but we've seen this big rally over the last six weeks, we're probably getting towards the peak of that. i suspect we will see some disappointment as we move into 2023. tom: with that long-term view and focus around endurance of margins and earnings, where are you finding that resilience? nigel: it's becoming a great market. it's going to be down to real fun medals of companies who are able to -- fundamentals of companies you are able to grow margins, control costs. much more differentiation across the market. that opens up lots of different sectors. it doesn't mean you will be hunker down in defensive. health care remains attractive, but there are other opportunities. the banking sector, very different circumstances to the deflationary shock in 2000 8-9,
the banking sector could do relatively well in this more recessionary environment. the co thing to remember -- that is the other thing to remember, the nominal numbers remain higher, don't get too fixated on real gdp, think about nominal growth. francine: what banks? you could argue that europe is still largely over bank. it is different if you are a barclays or jp morgan. nigel: we can't mention specific stocks, but we are going for the higher-quality end of the banking sector. those that can provide share buybacks and strong given the -- strong dividends. interest rates will remain higher for longer, those banks will benefit in that environment. tom: you're not overly concerned about recession risk when it comes to the banking sector. health care has been a big pick, it has been almost consensus amongst guests we get on the show.
in terms of the opportunity to get into health care, how wide is that window open at this point? is that opportunity starting to slip? nigel: with health care, it's a longer term duration type of play. you are looking for copies that have products and services focused towards aging demographics across the world. there are opportunities that i wouldn't go bonker portfolios, but we still see that sector having positive opportunities, just as we do in the industrial sector. we have quite a broad spread of different sectors in this market, but the key is when you be bought earnings and margins -- is going to be about earnings and margins. tom: health care and the banks, nigel bolton staying with us, we will get more calls in just a few minutes. chinese officials about to
it simply because of the impact it has brought on people and the economy. it is tough on people. it is also negatively impacting the chinese economy. tom: the imf managing director speaking to the associated press. the fundus as it may have to trim its forecast for china's economic growth, citing economic restrictions and the property crisis. let's stay on this story. officials have pledged to crackdown on what they call "hostile forces," as a warning to protesters angry about strict covid rules. let's bring in enda curran out of hong kong. what does the latest messaging from china on covid zero? enda: we're getting two strains
of messaging out of beijing. on the one hand, there is a very strict message via the state media and social media that foreign or hostile forces cannot be tolerated in any form within china's political discourse. this commentary does not explicitly mention protests over the past weekend, but have been -- has been interpreted as a strict message going out there. nobody with these protests have been labeled as being involved with foreign influences. that was one side of the coin. but on the other site of the coin, the state press appeared to be softening their tone on covid. there's articles appearing about the importance of responsibility for one's own health. there are articles about those who have contracted covid and survived. that is being interpreted as a softening for how china might start to eventually navigate from its strict restrictions
around containing covid zero. on the one hand a firm message to anyone was to get involved in protests, on the other hand saying we are listening on covid zero, and some changes likely on the way. francine: what did today's economic data tell us, how is the economy in china actually changing? enda: you've got the public health element. but you also have the economic aspect what's going on. we have numbers on the pmi side, both manufacturing and services in contractionary territory. it was really no surprise given what's going on with mobility, the restrictions on the industrial and consumer side. you hear it out of the imf, that they need to tweak this model. lots of economists continue to be unsure where china's economy will go next year. it's not about the current
sequencing of data, we know that is under pressure, it is about is there a material roadmap? when will it materialize, how long will it take, how complicated will it be and will be the public health affect? one economist said to me today, there is a feeling that china is at the end of the beginning of all this, but still has got a long road to go. francine: thank you so much, our enda curran, in asia. still with us as nigel bolton from blackrock equities. you were talking about the energy transition, but what do you do with china? nigel: if you look at valuation levels, you could say china assets are cheap. there is a geopolitical risk element which has really grown the last year or so. that makes it very hard for a
lot of international investors, in particular. we're seeing some people attracted to the valuation, and other people who just say sorry, geopolitics too risky for me. it's a tricky one but when we talk to companies, there is a reluctance to increase investment in china going forward we're seeing companies looking to expand production in other parts of the world now. that's definitely a key change we have seen of the last six to 12 months. tom: you talk to us before the breaker on how you think inflation has probably peaked, but maybe stickier than some are expecting, help me understand how investors who are betting on lower inflation in 2023 are also hopeful of china reopening. how does a reopen the china coexist with our inflation -- lower inflation? nigel: that's the balance investors are trying to get their head around. it makes it difficult, we
haven't seen these kind of circumstances before. we have to step back and look at where the underlying elements of inflation are coming from. when we look at the good side of things, we can see the pressures have eased considerably and we are expecting that to come down next year. when you look at the services side of the economy, certainly in developed markets, that we see as being more persistent and that's the area central bank will focus on in 2023. francine: what are you selling right now? is there something that looks too expensive, i'm thinking of tech but actually it can be anything. nigel: you have to be much more cognizant of valuation then we frankly have been the last 10 years or so. the cost of capital has change significantly. when you see rallies we have seen over the last six weeks or so, it does provide you with opportunities to reduce exposure to those companies that may are not going to prosper in this environment. one of those? -- what are those?
companies that do not have good cost control, or are not able to have pricing power. tom: really important insights. blackrock co. chief investment officer of fundamental equities, hitting on a number of key themes, and how to position if you are a longer-term investor in this inflationary environment. thank you. there is a bit of news to get you caught up on, just checking on the markets currently, across the european equity space, gains of .4%. holding onto the upside within the session so far. u.s. futures pointing hires well, between .2 and .3%, within the currency space, the bloomberg dollar index again down .2%. the euro bid at 1.03, a gain of .2%, but selling when it comes to sovereign bonds in europe. a different picture when it comes to u.s. treasuries. i will bring you more across these markets, including a focus
european trading day. stocks rising, pretty volatile environment in the last 23 minutes of trading. this is ahead of that big speech by jay powell about labor economics, and we are hoping for clues on where he sees inflation. tom: important speech that investors are looking out for. within crypto, the risk on is being felt as well, both bitcoin and either our bid. the redhead from binance, we had heard from cz, the chief executive suggesting he is in the market to buy assets. now we get a redhead stating binance has bought secura -- sakura exchange in japan. entering the japanese market as a regulated entity via this deal. cz had said that he was on the lookout potentially for opportunities to expand his footprint amidst the fallout of
ftx. let's bring you the googler -- bloomberg business flash. >> bloomberg has learned the u.k. is planning to relax bank ring fencing rules as part of efforts to deregulate the city of london. ring fencing, introduced in the wake of the 2008 global financial crisis, requires banking groups to separate their retail services from investment banking activities. according to treasury sources, the government wants the changes to get a big bang out of brexit, a reference to the 1980's deregulation of u.k. financial services. bankrupt cryptocurrency lender blockfi will try to collect some $680 million owed by ftx's alameda. the company has made its first appearance in bankruptcy court, seeking routine approval to keep operating. it is also developing a plan to repay creditors owed more than $1 billion by reorganizing or finding a buyer. amazon's cloud unit plans to add employees next year and keep building new data centers in a
sign the company's broader hiring freeze has not derailed investment plans at its most profitable business. sales in amazon's cloud unit grew 27% in the most recent quarter, though that was the slowest year-over-year growth since amazon began working out -- breaking out the division's performance in 2014. tom: thank you very much indeed. stocks on the move today, the banking sector, the reporting around the relaxation of the ring the fence for that sector. likely to impact smaller lenders more than the large ones like barclays, but eventually more positive sentiment there, a honest game -- modest again for barclays. sap with decent results from one of its competitors stateside workday, that stock up 1%. and future plc, we will speak
to the ceo in the next few minutes, currently up .5%. revenue for the full year in line with estimates, raising the dividend by 21%. this is the owner of marie claire, techradar and others within the media space. we will speak to the chief executive officer in the next few moments. the markets in europe looking at gains of .3%, futures in the u.s. also pointing higher. stay with us. this is bloomberg. ♪
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maintain its plan for rate hikes, as markets look ahead to chair powell's speech today. chinese authorities pledged to crackdown on protesters angry about government covid policies. the imf's georgieva says it may need to cut the nation's growth forecasts. u.k. will relax ring fencing rules for banks. tom: the focus is on china, but also the look ahead to jay powell and to what extent the fed chair will push back on the rally in equities. the loosening of financial conditions even as officials consider a more moderate pace of height later in december. that speech in focus. and reporting out of china that maybe you are getting nuance in terms of the rhetoric, the reporting from state media around covid zero suggesting easing of restrictions. even as they look to clamp on protests.
gains across the european benchmark of .4%. the ftse 100 up .2%, talking about that potential relaxation of ring fencing for the banking sector. november the best month of was 100 has witnessed in two years. the dax up .5%, adding 76 points. let's have a look at sectors, we focus on basic resources tying into china, and oil as we look ahead to opec+. a lot of debate as to whether opec over the weekend will further cut output. travel and leisure at the top of the list, getting more than 1%. technology also getting. at the bottom of the list, telecoms, banks into basic resources but a lot of bloodletting. francine: multimedia company future has raised his annual dividend 21%. the honor of household brand such as marie claire, techradar
and go compare expect to deliver modest profit growth in 2023. the company is based in the u.k. but focused on further ross the pop -- growth across the pond. joining me now is the chief executive officer, we've been looking forward to this conversation on publishing and media for a while. how much do you see the landscape changing, how much do you do online? and with the social media under attack, i'm thinking of twitter, is it an opportunity for you? zillah: we are pleased that we have more revenue from -- one third of our revenue from online users, but one third is from subscribers and people who by our magazine content. one third of our revenue comes from merchandise. so we are very well diversified
in terms of our revenue sources. we reach about half a billion people a month. and only about 350 of that is directly from the online audience. tom: you talk about the mix. the resilience that gives the business. there are concerns about the u.k. and also europe, what is the impact to advertising? to what extent are advertisers pulling back at this point? zillah: we recognize that the outlook is uncertain for everyone at the moment. we've got to go back to our results. we have had record profit growth, we grew media advertising 7% organically during the last 12 months, we outperformed the market. that goes the quality of the audiences we have. we have endemic audiences who care deeply about the brands we
own. therefore we feel that albeit the market might be uncertain, we are well-positioned to trade into that. francine: how are your readers changing? what trends do you see in publishing the next five to 10 years? zillah: near-term, everyone is trying to save money. everyone in the u.k. last weekend won an air frier based on transactions on our site. it is recognizing media as a disruptive industry. over the last years, we have doubled down on video content and brought up our in-house pricing capability, we are expanding our in-house newsletter, recognizing that people want more personalization, and things they care about. we recognize that media online is a free commodity, but we also see some people want a premium. francine: thanks so much, zillah byng-thorne, ceo of future.
we have to cut short because of breaking news out of china. the former leader died. tom: this is across the terminal now, china's former president has died. that is according to xinhua, the official state news agency. jiang zemin who i believe was in his 90's, we will get delete els -- details on his exact age. there has been long concern about his health a number of years. he headed over to hu jintao. jiang zemin was pivotable in the 1990's in terms of pushing through reforms and allowing the private sector to play a greater role in shaping china's economy. pulling in business leaders and executives into the body politic
of the communist party. he pushed through major reforms that were disruptive but consequential in driving china's growth, and driving the reform and opening of this economy. jiang zemin, absolutely pivotal figure within modern chinese history, and someone who worked closely with his team in the late 1990's to drive reforms that led to the double-digit growth that future leaders certainly lived through, and helped steer. jiang zemin, the redhead crossing the terminal, the former president and communist party leader, dying according to xinhua news agency. we will bring you new details if and when we get this. he was an elderly gentleman in his 90's, and there had been much speculation about his health in recent years. right.
coming up, eu states remain split over russia's oil price cap. we will talk energy with claudio galimberti from rystad energy. this ahead of opec+ and whether they go ahead with a cut, given concerns about demand out of china. we will also talk about that russia oil price cap as well, and the implications. this is bloomberg. ♪
francine: welcome back to the open, everyone. 41 minutes into the european trading day. we're seeing gains, european docs gaining .3%, we had inflation figures in france but it is all about that jay powell speech and what he says on labor economics. tom: brent trading at $83 a barrel, a gain of 1%, wti a modest gain of .6% this morning. this ahead of opec+, they are set to meet sunday, there is speculation the alliance will again agree to reduce supply to counter market weakness. the gathering calms a day before the deadline for eu sanctions on russian crude flows, although a price cap has yet to be financed. joining us now is claudio galimberti, rystad energy senior president of energy and analysis, and someone who has studied the oil market for a number of years and is across
all the granularity for us. let's start with opec+ speculation, do you think they go for a cut given concerns out of china, and growth dynamics globally? claudio: there is a lot of uncertainty. if i was opec+, it would be a tough decision because you have a lot of uncertainty on the demand side. we have seen lockdowns in china, the drop in traffic is just two to 3%, there is a lot of uncertainty on the supply side. we don't know what's going to happen with the russian trade flows. the european union is due not to receive crude from russia starting next week. that could be a big, big drop in russian production. francine: what is opec+ actually tried to do right now?
they seem to be helping russia with some of the prices, are they targeting a price, i know they don't say it openly but are they trying to stabilize the price of oil or help friends? claudio: i think they are trying to do both. the past two years, they have stabilized the market exceptionally well. if you think about the big dislocation from the pandemic, it was in big part thanks to due to opec. with russia, they do be careful with the incoming ban on russian crude trade flow. so, it's a difficult balancing for opec. there are a lot of uncertainties both on the demand and supply side. if i was to guess, probably there is more concern on the demand side as of now. because we believe the ban on russian crude will only have limited impact initially.
in reality, what concerns me is the ban on products that is coming in february. that is going to be a much bigger deal. tom: talk to us about that. it is a big deal and there is no solution. this ban on products hasn't been talked about enough essentially, one of the problems? zillah: the market of crude is very deep. you can find a lot of wires of crude around the world. the problem on the product side is it is not that deep. once you ban russian products, it is difficult for russia to find buyers of its products. at the same token, it is difficult for europe to find diesel supply to be important. so, it's a much bigger deal than the one coming in february. much more concern about that. we cannot discount the importance of the crude van coming next week read -- van cap coming next week. -- ban coming next week.
if they don't find a solution for the insurance, we can have a significant drop in barrels that are transported, waterborne from russia to asia. francine: we have to remind our viewers, we found out about 10 minutes ago that the former chinese president jiang zemin had died. he had organ failure, leukemia, and he was 96. tom: when i was in china, there is a lot of speculation about his health. the former leader who drove through a number of reforms particularly in the late 1990's, and helps to drive the opening of that economy. and talking about the extent to which china, and the reopening, to which it will impact the oil market? francine: when it comes to demand, i imagine there is a period of national mourning. i don't know how that will affect the covid lockdowns we're
seeing, but what does it mean for oil demand? there was concern that if china opened to quickly, it would drive the price of oil much higher. claudio: correct. there is a lot of pent-up demand there because china has been in a state of semi-lockdown the past three years. as soon as there is a breakup of covid, they lock up. we need to be careful they don't lockdown the entire country, that is 1.6 billion people. they want to lockdown the province where this happens. it can be big. as big as the u.k., 60 million, but it is still a fraction of the population. if you look at the province level, you see a huge drop in traffic. nationwide, it is not that big of a difference from a few months ago, when they lockdown beijing or shanghai. if i look at the reopening data, we see that it is just 2% drop so far. so, i'm not too concerned, as
long as the covid doesn't go really out of control. tom: all these different variables, but i'm going to ask this question anyways, looking to 2023, where you see prices? claudio: we have extremely high uncertainty on the supply side, due to the two bands, one next weekend one in february. opec will need to really monitor the situation closely and intervene. opec will be even more crucial next year than it has been the past three years. in the first half of the year, we probably have demanded not as strong. the reason is, we expect china to still be in lockdown at least until the second quarter. or zero covid, not necessarily lockdown. probably there is slowdown in europe and the united states. the second half is where we focus that strong pickup in demand. i would say the second half of
2023 we're probably going to see high prices. francine: thanks so much, claudio galimberti, rystad energy senior vice president of analysis. we have news of jiang zemin diane, is incredible when you think of chinese history and what he has done for the country. tom: absolutely consequential in driving double digit growth. and reforming that economy. he has died, according to xinhua state news agency, at the age of 96. the cause of death included leukemia and multiple organ failure. but within modern chinese history, a consequential figure who works to tackle ingrained interests, what he described as the iron rice bowl around state-owned enterprises. it was controversial. but it did lead to double-digit growth within that economy. you're absolutely right, the cherry on the top in terms of economic reforms was china's entry into the wto in 2001.
francine: he was pivotal trying to get businessmen to enter the chinese country. in the 12 or 14 years he was in charge, the economy actually tripled in size. this was early 90's. tom: through late 90's. absolutely remarkable in terms of pace of growth. we also saw consequences in terms of environmental degradation and corruption. but they didn't hear those reforms particularly around state-owned enterprises. we do have a package that looks at the past, the role of jiang zemin, the former general party secretary of china. let's take a listen now. and look back on his legacy. >> china went through a key period of growth and modernization marked by the opening of the economy to the outside business world.
picked for the top job after the tnn men -- tiananmen crackdown, jiang the country from condemnation to a claim. during his time as head of the commonest economy, china's economy more than tripled in size. millions of rural workers were finally able to live and get jobs in cities, as the iron rice bull system was dismantled in the 1990's. by the end of the decade, beijing and washington signed a landmark deal opening china's markets to the west. paving the way for a long-awaited entry to the wto in 2001. that achievement was matched in the same year, when beijing won the bid to host the 2008 olympics. in the years that followed, foreign investment surged. real estate construction boomed.
while jiang was liberalizing the economy, things were not the same in politics and society. tentative moves towards greater democratization stalled, and jiang ordered a crackdown. as the economy grew, so did the wealth gap. jiang zemin spoke english, and made big efforts to build good relationships with the u.s. he even rang the opening bell at the stock exchange in 1997. an economist says, he brought a liberal street to china's reforms with the assistance of zhu rongzhi. they implemented things that move china in the right direction. he was succeeded by hu jintao as general secretary of the commonest party and china's president.
tom: welcome back to the open. we are 54 minutes into the european trading day. still risk on, gains of .3% across the european benchmark. futures up stateside, futures on the nasdaq .3%. we look ahead to jay powell and that speech, whether it tempers this equity market enthusiasm. and some of the use around china
-- news out of china around easing of restrictions as we digest the death of jiang zemin. the u.k. is planning to relax ring fencing around banks, to get a hopeful big bang out of brexit. lizzy burden is across the details for us, what we know about the ring and sing -- fencing plans? >> the point was after the financial crisis to reduce risk and prevent collapses. banks have been required to have separate parts of capital to absorb losses. the government argues that traps capital unnecessarily, therefore this is part of deregulation post-brexit. i would draw a to st -- draw a distinction between this big bang and margaret thatcher's deregulation. ask business leaders, and they will complain there is not
enough of a plan from this government to grow the economy. that is what they were telling me at the cbi conference last week. and you can see it in two separate surveys this morning that show u.k. business confidence has dropped. i would point out, it is a misnomer to talk about a brexit big bang in the context of ring fencing when the eu rules don't require it, and the u.k. was something of an outlier. francine: extremely different when you are trying to enter a global financial hub, the last time we had a big bang. shots are the highest since we started recording them since 2005. >> food price inflation is above 12%. that will hit the poorest the hardest. general fell price inflation, 7%. retailers are trying to mitigate by spreading out the christmas period as long as they can. we will see whether that can work in a cost-of-living crisis.
francine: our big story today is the death of former chinese president. tom: it's a reminder just how much has changed. jiang zemin presided when the economy is growing, china was opening up to the world and when china's relationship to the united states was improving. all of those things have gone backwards under xi jinping. that contrast is marked. and how they memorialize this man will be really important. 96 years old but at a very different time for china and its relationships with the west. that is the european market open, francine sticks around. this is bloomberg. ♪