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tv   Bloomberg Surveillance  Bloomberg  December 2, 2022 8:00am-9:00am EST

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>> do i believe inflation is off its peak?
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absolutely. >> this rally will go further. the post-pandemic distortion will last for some time. this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning everyone, on radio and television. a job statement so much more in the coming hours. huge news out of washington but everyone is focused on the state of the american labor economy. the state of labor is the jobs report. and in america, a possible strike. jonathan: does this administration say you have the right to strike? are you still after the decision to impose this bill on workers
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through congress. tom: it comes down to wages and wages is the focus be happier. jonathan: the headline number comes down to wages and what does it mean for this federal reserve. ahead of that fed meeting we still have cpi before that. we heard from chairman powell and he took a lot of weight out of the front yield of the curve. it looks like he is shifting the balance away from overcooking it. tom: what does the spread market say about the recession? lisa: people are staying away from high yield but you see spreads come in. there is a bigger issue when you
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start talking about the move you see in rates and talk about the optimism you see in markets which is a stealth cutback. is it companies that are not doing the same kind of hiring plans that they have previously and how much people are hearing about that? tom: part of this is year and with the rationalization of the markets in chaos. over to catherine burton who is a hedge fund reporter says that without bridgewater, they've had of rough couple of weeks. jonathan: bridgewater associates erased most of its returns shaping up the hedge fund giants
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best year in a decade. it tumbled 13.2% in the first quarter going to 6% from 2022. tom: i would suggest we would see a lot more like this. what you think is behind that? tom: i don't want to speculate on that. the volatility that we have, it's not just vicks, it's the yield curve volatility and what we have seen in fx as well. i would love to talk to rebecca patterson at bridgewater. lisa: the wind shifts so quickly. i don't cohere with the economic projection. tom: the vix closing at a 19 level yesterday. jonathan: equity futures totally unchanged. 26 minutes away from the
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payrolls report. your 10 year at 351. a weaker dollar for sure after the last month. 1.05. tom: a stronger you want is something to look for monday morning or sunday evening. nadia level, everybody is looking at a whisper number down lower. if we go the other way and we get 200,000 or higher, what does your equity space do? nadia: it will be challenging for equities but we're focused on not only the job numbers but the wage growth. chairman powell has made it clear that non-housing services is a key point of concern. we need to see that come down closer to something that can get to the pasted 3.5%.
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that's what we watching closely because we don't want to end up in a wage growth spiral. tom: stephen colbert would call it growthiness. how does that look in 2023? nadia: we do expect it to slow. we are looking for an earnings recession. we don't think the consistence -- consensus is appreciated, another 10% reduction in the consensus going forward. even that may be a bit optimistic depending on how shallow or deep in long the recession might be in 2023. jonathan: it's amazing to see how many strategists are calling
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for a flat market over the next 12 months. can you walk us through the path to a fourth thousand on the other? what you think it will look like? nadia: it won't remain flat. but we are expecting is that we will see another pullback in this market. it would be unusual for a bear market to bottom ahead of a recession. we haven't seen that before and we think is we get into 2023 the market will shift away from the fed action to economic reactions. we are expecting this market to pullback. test that 35 77 level we saw on the s&p entrant back to the 4000 level. we think at that time the fed is going to respond to a weaker economy, a weaker job market and lower inflation.
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we are looking forward to come in and the foreperson were arranged in the earnings will be behind us and help us have a more sustainable rally in the market as we head into the back end of the year. lisa: he was buying right now? nadia: you see systematic buying. you see a bit of a short cover happening in the market. this rally wasn't expected so you see a bit of a short recovery happening. once we get into 2023, it's investors and they still remain on the sidelines anticipating a better entry point in the better half of the year. lisa: where will they go as we've seen bonds rally tremendously? nadia: we are positioned offensively within equities because we are expecting a pullback in the market. look at some of the sectors that
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are up? what sector is up that is energy. if you are an energy you made a lot of money. we have been recommending consumer staples. those are areas of the market that will be more resilient. we are also focused on quality and value. jonathan: another bank for looking at a 4000 year end. look at those numbers. we will go through them point by point and i will put them on twitter. bank of america 4000, city 3900, credit suisse, 4150, hsbc, four thousand, jeffries 4200. morgan stanley 3900,ubs 4000.
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tom: 99% of our guests have said there going to lowball. lisa: when did stocks stop becoming a discount mechanism? jonathan: i am on the same page with you. lisa: this is basically been going on for the past couple of weeks. jonathan: the last couple of years? tom: e position of our guests to careers or on the line with these calls.y traw on weaker earnings. lisa: if inflation does roll over and people expect the fed to go back to some kind of easy money policy, less restrictive and move quickly. i could see stocks go back to rallying and valuations make sense. i think the bridgewater step shows how difficult it is to be a macro investor and make any call that moves in tandem
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without goes. jonathan: bridgewater made most of its money by betting on rising interest rates, stronger dollar and falling stocks. and what we have seen is falling interest rates, a stronger dollar and rising stocks. based on what we have seen you can read between the lines. lisa: the speed in which we have seen the dollar weaken has been dramatic. the speed at which the moves of come faster viewers. 70 basis point move in the 10 year, this highlights the stuff is causing some of the short coverage we were talking about. tom: rebecca batterson will join us on monday.
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lisa: the entourages speaking to us from the corners and exists. jonathan: did you have an imaginary friend growing up? tom: the entourage all work from home on friday. jonathan: payrolls in 20 minutes. this is bloomberg. lisa: keeping you up-to-date, with the first word i'm lisa mateo. less than 20 minutes from now we will get the u.s. jobs report. traders waiting to see if it provides clues on the federal reserve's next moves. the report may fall short of the turning point that officials are seeking in their battle to beat back inflation. the economy created 200,000 jobs
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in november. in south africa, rulers of the ruling party or meeting today. ramaphosa has considered resigning after they found he may have violated the constitution. they say is not a done deal. >> is not that we've excepted that the president is leaving. in the case of that happening, we don't seat at the moment. lisa: the pentagon is considering a major expansion for ukraine's armed forces. the plan has been discussed by weeks by lloyd austin and other top military officials. it could leave thousands of ukrainian troops to be trained by u.s. forces at a base in germany. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries.
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i am lisa mateo, this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> we have more confidence that this rally will continue. i think rates will go lower. they are going to pause probably in january and the markets will get in front of that. this is a classic fed pause, stockmarket rally. jonathan: mike wilson from morgan stanley. upon january, tom. no step down, they are saying that at the start of 2023, they think you get a pause that early
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in the year. tom: you want to listen to mike wilson yesterday from morgan stanley and then you have rick rieder on. they are not naval gazing 12 months. just getting out 90 days. jonathan: never mind about the bearishness, to get bullish and get behind this bull market rallied. it has continued. tom: i go back to revenue analysis and the nominal gdp numbers good. we are coming up on jobs in 12 minutes. the former governor of the federal reserve, at the university of chicago. dr. prof. randall s kroszner
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, austan goolsbee will join the federal reserve team. i don't want to take a lot of time, we could do an hour on the economy. this is the guy who wrote the micro economics bible was steve levin of freakonomics and others. he is steeped in micro economics. what will that voice mean to the fed? dr. kroszner: you can see from his comments that he has emphasized the supply side of the economy. focused on that and said may be the fed should not be doing as much because it is a supply issue in the fed can't dress that. -- can't address that. lisa: how do you game out the supply side when china and reopening is the surprise for
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next year? dr. kroszner: that is one of the issues. are we going to see a whole bunch of changes that will relax supply-side constraints. if you can't figure out the demand side because price pressures come from where supply and demand come together. lisa: what are you seeing right now that the market is not in terms of the stickiness of inflation and whether we have seen peak inflation or how quickly it can come down? dr. kroszner: it's likely that inflation will be heading lower but i'm not sure that it will come down so quickly with core inflation. i think there are two reasons, chairman powell mentioned both. you have rents coming down. it's not just today rents but also over a number of months. the other part that's relevant
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for today is he is worried about services. the strength of the labor market. as i've been saying, the fed is going to keep at it until they see the labor market crack and i think they talk about that. wage increases continue to be high, it will be difficult for inflation to come down. that will take a little while. lisa: did you see a real shift in tone at the brooking institute with jay powell where perhaps he was less willing to stick with it? less willing to go all the way to five and hold it there? dr. kroszner: i did not hear that at all. what he wanted to get out was that they will not go 75 basis points forever. what i think was clear in the markets and largely accepted is that they will do 50 at this meeting and then we will see how inflation involves. i think they will continue into the mid-fives. i think they will end with the
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five handle but they will stop in december and just hold it just below five right around five. that's probably where they will hold it. and i think they will hold her for a while because i don't think inflation will come down unless there's a shock for mr. pruden. tom: i want you to speak to global wall street, i want you to do some brown mathematics. there is a greek letter of the equation which is called epsilon which is this massive uncertainty out there. have you ever seen uncertainty like this? dr. kroszner: the way it has manifest as you see incredibly strong movements in the markets from small changes in information. a couple of weeks back when we got a slightly better inflation report, markets took off like a rocket. that's one data point that was slightly different than expected. that shows that the markets are
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quite skittish and they jump a lot even with a little bit of information. jonathan: you will stick with us and break down these numbers when when they arrive. we have michael mckee which means something big is about to happen. let's go through these number together. how big is the range of what are you looking for? mike: there's a concentration around 188. oak surveys the idea, what we do if it's too small? that will be the question for wall street to answer? lisa: what about wages? mike: that will be the big issue. service industries are the ones that are still having to pay up. we are going to watch and see.
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weather service industry wages are rising and the impact on the overall hourly earnings. lisa: we see savings go down and spending surprise to the upside. when you speak to economist and fed members are they surprised on how quickly people are getting ahead of the story? mike: the theory is that inflation is bad because people will spend money today before it becomes worth less in the future. i don't think consumers think like that. at this point, there was a big cash cushion that people had coming out of the pandemic. we are seeing credit card usage start to rise. it's not where used to be that people are spending more on credit. it shows you the will of the american people to hang in there.
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tom: retail sales are up 7%-8%. jonathan: what is the rally right now? lisa: 250 bucks. jonathan: you should demand more than that. payroll is on its way. this is bloomberg. ♪
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jonathan: payrolls friday on bloomberg surveillance. the data is seconds away. equity futures 4075. here is mike mckee. mike: the whisper number was wrong.
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a significant beat to the upside , and that puts us ahead. i am looking here for the revised monthly october number was. it was 261 and the change for october was revised up by 23,000. from 261 to 284. it was a lot faster back in october than we thought. the unemployment rate is holding steady at 3.7%. that 100,000 job loss does not translate. 14,000 jobs created in manufacturing. earnings, up .6%. that is stronger than anticipated. that pushes up hourly earnings
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to 5.1% it's a decline but significantly higher than it was in the initial report. labor force participation rate, it drops to 62.1. that wages number has got wall street's attention. jonathan: equities down, 1.4. yields are higher, by about 10 basis points back to 432 just south of 360. with equities down in the yield up. the dollar is stronger. upside to price on payrolls, upside to price on wages. tom: i know that mike is diving into the data. my quick calculation on the 90 day three-month average, i
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believe the statistic is 280,000. can we have a moment of silence for ben evans who nailed this 1.5 hours ago. jonathan: 433 on the 10 year. that's lower than we were on the last payroll report. went do you think these numbers might mean? mike: it fits the narrative that we are still seeing a strong economy so the fed has to do more. how high do they have to go? the emphasis that powell put out is that if we don't see wages come down we will have to keep going up until they do. they need to be in the 3, 3 .5 range. wages are still a problem the fed has to address. it doesn't mean they have to go 75 basis points.
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it does probably move the fed funds futures out into 2023 with more of an increase priced in until we see some sort of change here. lisa: why was the whisper number so wrong? why are they so confident there will be a massive deceleration? mike: we did have the poor adp report and we had the ism manufacturing report coming in saying there is still contraction in payrolls. there has been a lot of news about layoffs and planned job cuts, mostly intact. we have seen over the last week, probably that all got absorbed into people's thinking about what was going to happen. we have been cautioned by ceos that things are not as bad as they seem. remember how hard it is to hire people. they don't want to let people go. tom: what are the market
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statistics? jonathan: trying to get back to the levels that chairman powell spoke of this week. tom: real yield is up but we will go through that in a moment. dr. prof. randall s kroszner with the university of chicago booth school of business , do we have any understanding of the veracity of our statistics given the new america, the new technology. are we making this up as we go or can we estimate in good faith? dr. kroszner: we have reasonable insight into that. there are a lot of changes, things are new. we are bouncing out of an unusual. l period with covert shutdowns.
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the fed is going to keep added until the labor market cracks. it has not cracked, wages are still going up. the fed can't stop until the labor markets are so slow down because otherwise, you will see wage inflation continue strong, services continue to go up. they will keep at it. they will keep at it until they get into the mid-fives in the next year. jay is hoping, and he talked about this immaculate disinflation. could we bring the inflation rate down without having a significant rise in unemployment? the only way they can do that is if wages come down, more people, the labor market. we haven't seen that yet. interest rates will have to continue to rise. lisa: jay powell talking about
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retirements. what you make of his comments this week? dr. kroszner: that was his hope that maybe if this supply coming into the market could take some of the heat out of wages. we are not seeing a lot of evidence of that now and he was hinting at that but we don't seem to see it. the only way we can do this is to have a slowdown in demand that will slow down the demand for workers and the demand for wage increases. we have never had an immaculate disinflation before. i think it's not very likely. tom: dr. prof. randall s kroszner university of chicago booth from theuniversity of chicago booth school of business on this job stay. two year yield exploding. we have gone from 14 basis
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points up to 17 basis points in the two-year yields. jonathan: back to 440. equities down, futures up by 1.5% in the dollars stronger. tom: none of us is wired and like michael mckee. what is the data that you see in the pages that you go through? mike: i'm trying to do the math here. the interesting thing about hiring, there were 20,000 construction jobs added because they have a lot of rebuilding to do down in florida. but what month is it? it's november and we lost jobs in retailing? that just seems very odd to me. we don't have as many people doing retail work at holiday time? tom: is that amazon?
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mike: one of the things you want to look at under transportation, warehousing and careers -- courriers and warehousing were down 12.4 thousand. they don't seem to have added a lot of people. that is a little strange. jonathan: we will do that in about 20 minutes time. michael mckee will break down the jobs number forest. then we will hear from this amazing lineup. you will hear from secretary walsh respond to these numbers at about 9:45. tom: maybe our most important
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conversation given the railroads. now we bring in a telling point given the bond market movement. jeffrey rosenberg joins us now from black rock. i look at the volatility and i don't want to equated to the news from bridgewater. jeffrey: the surprise to the upside and particularly, is the wage data driving it. stocks are down and bond yields are up and that is the kind of correlation, positive correlation in terms of both going down at the same time that is a challenge for investors. what we learned from chairman
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powell is that the most important determinant for inflation is going to be the services component. what drives that component is wages. what we might be starting to get a hint of here, that was in the earlier conversation, inflation is coming down because of all of those underlying components, the supply side, the goods picture. none of that matters. what matters is a wage price spiral. tom: you're gonna bring that up today? jeffrey: what matters is this wage price and what we are seeing in wages. that's the most important take away. inflation undermines the relationship between stock/bond correlation. tom: i am bus in his chops.
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mike: he has a point, i did the calculations. private service industry wages were up .8% while goods were up .4%. lisa: i would love it away on that, whether there is a compositional aspect. there's a shortage with retirees and on the lower end it's a different picture. what is your sense of how much that is contributing to the high rise in wage inflation? what's your sense of that? jeffrey: you always have to look at the compositional effects and
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certainly, there may be some of that as mike highlighted with the retail numbers down and warehouse numbers down. some of that can be seasonal. when you look at the high frequency data on a month-to-month basis, you can get a shift that pushes up this .55 number. the bigger take away if you abstract, smoothed out from the monthly variation is that the 12 month run rate of wage inflation is still above 5%. that's the challenge. we are going to get away from this debate of 50 or 75 in the issue is, is the level of rates restrictive enough? that is going to be the debate because the bond curve, the market is expecting rates to be cut by the second half of 2023. there is a real disconnect between an expectation that we
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can see the fed have success on inflation so much so that they can turn and cut rates versus what we see in the data today which has none of the impact. that will make it challenging, the reality is, that's what you see in the front end of the curve is we have a significant inflation problem in the most important driver of inflation which is in wages. tom: we have a ways to go and i am going to do this, with your heritage at carnegie mellon. we have been here before. there is a belief out there by a lot of people that are financial world and social world will fall apart with higher real rates, higher nominal rates. we have lived this before. what do you presume we will look like financially with the 5% fed rate? jeffrey: we are seeing that
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right now in terms of some of the implications, withdrawal of liquidity which you have seen in the tech sector, some of the early stage venture. and bond markets, the repricing from zero to a positive real interest rate or positive nominal interest rate with inflation staying sticky, a significant negative return in fixed income. adjustment from zero to the 400 basis point increase is a one-time effect. the negative returns in fixed income are hard to repeat a second you're going because you start with the higher income. one of the positive aspects away from the challenges everywhere else in financial markets, cash
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is a yield associated with it. whether it is a real yield after inflation, there is a bunch better opportunity to set cash in front of the yield curve which gives a little place to hide while we see the implication of a much higher nominal interest rate across markets play out. lisa: i am looking at the market movements. to your yields up basis basis points. people gaming that 5% peaks fund rate. if we have not seen a liquidity crisis yet, a financial system accident, what will trigger it given that we have seen volatility on the backs of these numbers? jeffrey: we have seen a rolling sequencing of smaller fires, the analogy small fires prevent
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forest fires. there is an anchoring to the global financial crisis and the metric of what does a liquidity crisis look like? that is a particular one. it picked up a lot of things to mitigate that type of event from happening. the centerpiece of the liquidity crisis does not flow through the regulated financial markets. what we saw in the u.k. with the ldi crisis is exactly this point. you have seen some of those implications and we will continue to see these smaller forest fires as opposed to the big fires. tom: jeffrey rosenberg, just an interesting and nuanced report to summarize the job statistics, but the revision the same way as well.
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futures negative down for 33. i don't have a good fixed number right now. the bond market was up 17 basis points the two-year yelled, we are up 14 basis points as well. i want to get mike mckee in here as well. what you see on page 47 there? mike: we did not talk about the factors behind the unemployment rate which are weird. i household survey shows a hundred 38,000 jobs lost in terms of the number of employed. the unemployment number went down by 48,000. there were fewer unemployed but more who were not employed in the labor force fell by 100 86,000. this is the time of year where you would expect the labor force
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to have increased even with seasonal adjustment patterns because of retail. we do have one of our viewers has been in and suggested it could be that employers have been hoarding workers so they did not need to higher as many workers. people who follow the stuff down at the minute level, i would be interested to see, goldman had a thing on jobless claims the other day suggesting that claims are overstated because they changed the way they did seasonal adjustment dynamics and i wonder if that might be affecting holiday hiring. the numbers during the pandemic did not compared to previous. tom: futures, negative two. ira jersey, how does chairman powell's world change with this
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shop report? ira: the fed has to be less balanced. over the past couple of months the federal reserve has become more balanced in that it is talking hochul surely but they don't want to go too far, chairman powell said that a few days ago. with the report like this you have to be concerned that you are going to get jeff rosenberg's wage price spiral. maybe you only go 50 basis points in december, i think that's still the base case. the market is starting to price that may be the fed is going to have to go 50 again in february. because you wind up at a faster than expected rate of increase, you will get more flattening in the yield curve and price for a harder landing. tom: how can you have a wage price spiral if after adjustment for inflation, people's
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paychecks are getting smaller every month? lisa: everyone is saying we need to get paid more or we will have an early retirement. there are structural issues leading to participant rates going lower in wages higher. the market feels all over the place with one week lower, shifting every one to 4.5% peak funds rate. ira: the market is pricing for a 50 base hike in february, that was almost zero before this data. even though you have had such a strong report, when youth look at things like the fed funds future curve, we have not gone back to where we were a month ago. we are not pricing for a 5, 5 .2
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5% terminal rate by the fed. over time, if you have other data the concurs with this payroll report, we wind up getting back there at some point. i don't think the fed will hike to 5%, to your yields are too low. we have rallied about 50 basis points on the two-year yield and we will undo most of that if the data continues to be as strong as this morning's report suggests. lisa: i take your point and it seems like this data set was of particular importance. from twitter, you want to revise your views on inflation based on today's job report than any other data report and not in a favorable direction. is there the sense that this job
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report changes the scenario for you and others? ira: like everything, this is one report but i think it is pretty meaningful. when you look at some of the other data, the ism manufacturing employment numbers being negative. we have confirmation of this. i would not get it is overly excited is that tweet suggests. we have to look out in the risks are rising that if we do continue to have very strong payrolls and wage gains, the fed is going to have to go beyond the 5.25 thinks we will have to go and that will have significant implications. tom: ira jersey, thank you so much. gina martin adams will be with us here in the morning. equities in the stock market. off of the comment of the wage spiral, i did a moving average
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study back in 2012. wages are up 154% year-over-year from about 2% wage growth and we have ballooned up to 5.1%. is that a spiral? mike: you could count it as a spiral book from 2012 to 2020, wage growth was very slow. the last couple of years are pushing that number up in the fed knew that was going to happen and that is what they are pushing back against and say they will have to raise rates farther to bring down the wage gains. i think what is most important to americans is the calculation of the cpi and measured what they have to pay because everyone is falling behind.
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tom: michael, thank you so much. gina martin adams saves the day. gina, congratulations on the splash of the m.v.p. portfolio. how will the m.v.p. portfolio do in a boy and american labor economy? gina: value is one of the key positions. we combine momentum, low volatility and high probability companies to come up with their 50 stocks within the s&p 500 that are well positioned on a risk return basis to perform well. the before leo did perform well. considering the value is one of those key factors, value stocks perform best when inflation is accelerating.
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signified by the wages component would suggest a value should perform reasonably well. that said, this portfolio is designed to help identify stocks that perform best throughout time and various climates. lisa: we have been talking all morning about how everybody right now is verizon stocks but bullish. we are seeing a bit of shift in tone. what you make of this in terms of who is buying right now versus all the people giving recommendations against that trait early next year? gina: i think a lot of it is about market timing and a bunch of crosscurrents thinking about what will happen over the next month as opposed to next year which causes a lot of confusion. our view is stocks do look a little vulnerable to correction going into year-end.
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you tend to see newer returns to the calendar year turn after stocks of struggle throughout the year. that has categorized 2022. small caps of lost a little bit of momentum which would hint to us that we are due for a bit of a pullback in large caps and this is all information published yesterday. i do think we are poised for a little bit of a pullback here. in 2023, it's all about the fundamentals of will the fed get to a point where they feel satisfied with the disinflation likely to accord. can they persist and an earnings recession. the market is struggling with this right now because they are clinging to the notion that the fed can pivot and none of the data suggest that the fed is
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doing that anytime soon. lisa: on the flipside, earnings are going to be better than people are currently saying in the first quarter because we are seeing those higher rates, those wages being paid an earnings will not come down as much as some people are suggesting? gina: employment is not the best driver of earnings growth. employment is a key factor for the fed. a key factor for defining economic conditions broadly. but what drives earnings growth, the single most important factor is durable goods, the long-term trend in unemployment. we will not get improvement in unemployment or deterioration. the focuses on net, not a positive for earnings growth. you want to watch those other factors, those macro factors the
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driver earnings. but macro is not the whole story, it's about margins and will companies be able to cost cut into a better environment? tom: gina, thank you so much. i'm sure we will speak next week as well. bloomberg intelligence. on the service screen, 270 was a high estimate. what an odd report. been evidence noted, stephen gallagher, david kelly at jp morgan absolutely nailed this. did we know that we would come in with the swing like this? lisa: everything went up including wages. that is what stands out to me. tom: futures negative, -55 as
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well. an eventful friday, stay with us on bloomberg radio and bloomberg television. good morning. ♪ live from new york city, good morning, good morning. equities heading south. the countdown to the open starts right now. everything you need to get set for the start of u.s. trading. this is bloomberg, the open with jonathan ferro. jonathan: live from new york, we begin with the big iss


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