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tv   Bloomberg Surveillance  Bloomberg  December 7, 2022 7:00am-8:00am EST

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>> inflation is too high and i will contend that this current inflation battle is not one off. >> the likelihood of a soft landing is quite low. >> the idea of a soft landing is mean so much of the data would be historically unique. >> no one is placing big bets that will see a miraculous second-half rally. >> we can be sure this will be a jumpy ride. >> this is bloomberg surveillance.
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jonathan: brammo on world cup. tom: it's deeper than we need to go. lisa: you are tearing the u.s. team apart. tom: three days ago, she's an expert. jonathan: what was your problem with the team? they are cute. lisa: you are mischaracterizing it. you said the spanish team was passing and they had too much and they don't have a game after that. john said but the u.s. can't pass like that. i like error chances. jonathan: equities right now are -0.4%.
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we've had warning after warning on wall street in the last 24 hours and it's been overwhelming. we've heard about a bumpy ride ahead. maybe a mild to hard recession and that's what we are waiting for but a moment, we don't see it. payrolls on friday are great. where are we headed? tom: i'm in the camp of optimism but equities and commodities, there is all this microanalysis. the bottom line is, it's pricing recession, that's the summary. it's all pricing in this likelihood of recession. jonathan: 0.2%, the most inverted yield we've seen since the early 1980's. the fact that crude is negative
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on the year, this is just staggering after the year we have had to see crude negative for the year. lisa: i don't get it and people say you don't understand recession. it's not being priced into the energy stocks so the stock market is not seeing the same picture that the oil futures market is seeing, who is right? they say oil stocks have to come down but why not the other way? why not see oil go up? have you flown anywhere? do you see how plaque -- how packed the airplanes are? tom: my answer on flying is you can get there. the answer is they are looking for a rampant rebound on wti prices. jonathan: look at london, big gains.
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maybe demand is kicking back in. lisa: we saw progress but it's not being priced into the market. it's not making a dent on oil prices. why didn't oil prices pop? have we seen this story before? jonathan: more easing of restrictions in china, down one third of 1%. does it become five day of losses today? the euro is stronger by 1%. 70 four on wti. tom: if the grim chart and edward morrison was with us. there was some nuances there. ed is looking for demand to come in and it has not come in.
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there was a caution about what global demand does. lisa: it will be a story we will continue to track and we're watching at 10:00 a.m., the bank of canada rate decision. it has set the tone and has been out front of other banks, do they downshift in their seven consecutive rate hiking cycle given how high yields have gone? their housing market has started to roll over. we will get the eia crude oil report and we've been talking about why oil prices have come down so much. our inventories starting to build which assignable black demand or are they declining? inventories are still pretty tight. you could see a real pop up in oil prices because of that lack of resilience. at 3 p.m., u.s. consumer credit
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data on the margins which will determine how much spending power consumers had step we saw a decline in disposable incomes. can people borrow? can they charge it and not pay it back for a while? to me, that's been one of the main questions on this recovery. people have money to spend and that is the reason why you are seeing these economic data points come in stronger than expected. jonathan: is it being depleted? we got a hint from bank of america that maybe we start to see that cushion be depleted. tom: i think there is a lot of framework going on but we will have some outlooks today as we always due in december. i quoted you like four times in
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the 9:00 hour yesterday and you said it's cute. i totally disagree with this approach. jonathan: put this in a headline -- in outlook that's different than all the other outlooks. increase portfolio risk, we are overweight equities so let's get straight to it. why are you guys going overweight equities? >> the recession is not a question of if, it's a question of when step we think a recession will come at some point maybe late next year. between now and then come up markets will have huge fluctuations and when you look at the type of events that are likely to occur between now and
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then, there's plenty of reason to expect the recession, the news flow will be reporting flows between now and the end of next year. look at the news out of china. when you look at equities or risky credit, the attractiveness for rebound here, there is some element there. when the fed is looking to signal a pause in the tightening cycle while those recessionary moves in a coming yet, that's likely to bring good news to the market. oil is coming down this likely to bring down inflation. for the next three months, no recession yet and high credit spreads, falling inflation and falling oil prices in the fed signals a pause.
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tom: on almost a transatlantic basis, if we have disinflation down to 2%, we still have nominal gdp, is that enough to support the market away from the gloom and we have better nominal gdp were revenues survived? >> that's a great point and it's something. we focus on real gdp. nominal gdp will also come down but despite the doom we are seeing, earnings have held up and is primarily because stocks are in inflation hedge, some better than others. having the healthy rise of
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inflation, if inflation comes down to three or 4% and real gdp growth holds up, that is not a terrible environment for equities is certainly a good environment for risky credit. lisa: how much is this a bet that consensus is wrong? will you see more strength for longer and you don't want to miss that? is this pushing against what everyone is saying which is a bad first half and a good second half and saying it could be the opposite? >> i think that's a good summary. we were in the camp this year that recession risks were well above 50%. it didn't materialize in our modeling methodologies told the something was changing. we are now at an inflection point. it's hard to say how long that will last, it's not the beginning of a new cycle. we've been waiting for the second half of 2022 and that we
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are waiting for the first half of 2020. what if it is later than that? i think that the dynamic here. this tug-of-war between the fed and the economy is where the recession is. tom: we've got to talk about how italy changes to rejoin the world cup. it's the first time they missed it since 1958. you two are watching this so how does a team restructure themselves? jonathan: the team is pretty decent. they just won the european championships. tom: and they had ties that killed them. jonathan: it was kind of on. tom: alessio, what do you think? >> we were still celebrating the
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euro 2020 when and forgot to pay attention and qualify. it's sad to miss two years in a row. jonathan: that was the extent of it. before you run, be specific, broad, overweight equities but get specific for a call for next year? >> emerging markets. they will outperform developed markets especially in the first half of the year and we like value and small indie caps. jonathan: thank you for leaving us with that. tom: that's the call on em. jonathan: coming up, northwestern mutual management. ♪ lisa: keeping you up-to-date with newsroom around the world with the first words --
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incumbent democratic u.s. senator raphael warnock has won reelection in the georgia runoff. he defeated republican herschel walker with little more than 51% of the vote. walker had been handpicked by former president trump. the victory allows democrats to hold a real majority in the senate with 51 seats. two of donald trump's companies have been convicted in the criminal tax fraud trial in new york. they were found guilty of engaging in a scheme that allowed executives to evade taxes on company pay perks for more than a decade. the former president was in charge and prosecutor's told the jury he knew exactly what was going on. in china, major shift from covid zero policy. beijing eased a range of restrictions aimed at preventing transmission of the virus. they included allowing some people to quarantine at home instead of in centralized camps plus authorities have scrapped virus tests in public venues. the chinese government has been under pressure to change its approach. in germany, more than 3000 law
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enforcement officials conducted raids aimed at breaking up what authorities call a coup attempt. they detained 25 people linked to a far right terrorist group that wants to overthrow the government. it's called the biggest ever rated targeting right-wing extremists in germany. global news, 24 hours a day and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> american manufacturing is back, folks. apple had to buy all the advanced chips from overseas and
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now they will bring more of the supply chain home. the united states is in a position to lead the world economy in the years ahead if we keep our focus. jonathan: that was the president of the united states yesterday in phoenix, arizona. the beginning of something big? tom: i want to say is i stand corrected on the idea of manufacturing in america. i thought some of the conversations yesterday showed the import of this even if it's out a long time. jonathan: reassuring is another phrase you here now. clearly, things are changing in a material way. tom: what i think it really says is the success of some of these american geographies that can execute this. can you see a 74 billion dollars semiconductor plant outside new york city?
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i don't think so. jonathan: they used the phrase de-risking the supply chain. when people think about that, they are thinking about taking china out of the supply chain. how much more of this will we see? tom: the president with a splash yesterday and he went to arizona instead of atlanta where there was a very important election. joseph matthew joins us now. you talked to the guy the count the votes, what did you learn from the state of georgia before we heard mr. warnock one? >> they were just in the process of counting when i spoke with them and the secretary of state told us on bloomberg radio that it was likely the end of the line runoff elections in georgia. we talked about this, george is not the only state that has runoff but it has roots in jim
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crow going back to the 1960's, to suppress the black vote. in 2022, we have two black nominees fighting against each other for a u.s. senate seat and a question as to why this is in place and that's a conversation that will be had in the general assembly in georgia. tom: what is you learn about early voting in the first tuesday of november and this runoff? what is new? >> it made the difference in what's new is republicans are on board, looking back at the last couple of weeks in which early voting was discouraged by some including donald trump who handpicked and endorsed herschel walker. you cannot win elections like this when you rely on same-day turnout and that's the big part of the story. raphael warnock winning with a huge late -- lead and it turned out to be insurmountable. another record vote yesterday and he won the suburbs. the northern suburbs of atlanta
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chose raphael warnock over the trump-endorsed candidate and that's where we stand this morning. lisa: how much is this a repudiation of donald trump leadership over the republican party? there are lots of potential candidates and -- and it's important to have a robust field but not many republicans are willing to come out and say donald trump should not run. >> we are hearing more of those people come out this morning, not so much that he shouldn't run but he may not get very far. we will see how that looks in the new year. republicans are angry this morning, they see a missed opportunity and a candidate that couldn't quite get the job done and an overhang by donald trump that in georgia is a big deal. donald trump had a very corrosive relationship with the republican party in the state and it played out last night.
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his fingerprints were all over this campaign. republicans are also wondering what if there was a different candidate? it was still a close race. there were times when herschel walker was ahead in the count. if this had been a different candidate, we could be having a very different conversation today. jonathan: wonderful to catch up, as always. i love it down in georgia. tom: i have only spent a little bit of time there. i made it to the four seasons and that saudi by went. jonathan: that's the extent of your tour. tom: i just didn't get south. what are the ramifications on capitol hill this morning after one more vote for the democrats in the senate? ann-marie this is huge for the democrats.
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this was nice to have but this is stood out to me this morning, the first time since 1934 that no incumbent senator from the president's party lost reelection. if you look at the midterms over all for 2022, this was a huge win for president biden, especially when you had the lead up thinking it was going to be a red wave in a referendum on the biden administration. i think this was a huge victory for joe biden. lisa: if former president trump does not run again, will president biden run again? he has been reluctant to say he won't run again particularly because he believes he is the only person who can win again versus the former president. ann-marie: i can't get into the hypotheticals with president biden if president trump runs but what we note now is that the former president said he is going to run.
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if that is how the playing field is at the moment, then i think you will see joe biden step in. you also made a good point yesterday which was the fact that joe biden, even heave -- even decides not to run, he cannot say that. he has a legislative agenda you want to get through the next two years and he wants to try to work with republicans. we see that already happening with the defense spending bill and that legislation hit the wires last night. he cannot say he is not going to run. even if he plans on not doing it , he has said in the press that he wants to talk to his family. if president trump backs out, you have to take another look at it. lisa: we are now passed the midterm elections and have a sense of what the shakeout will be in oil prices are at the lowest in gasoline prices are at
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the lowest level going back to early this year? is this time to start moving away from some of the policies that led to the outcome they wanted which was lower gasoline prices and perhaps trying to reduce the cost of living? annmarie: we are closer to the u.s. doing that now as opposed to a few months ago but i there is still too many unknowns and you still have wti trading above $70 per barrel. when it gets closer to 60's when you can see the u.s. have real impetus to fill out the spr. the unknowns are huge. we need to find out what's going on with demand in china in terms of covid zero. potentially the saudi arabia meeting couldn't shed light on that. we also have a huge geopolitical risk that could change prices in a matter of moments. that's not just russia's war in ukraine but it's also issues
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going on and potential in iran which is digging in its heels as it has protests continuing. there are number of unknowns for this administration to go out and buy oil but they have to be closer to 60. jonathan: great coverage from d.c. equities are rolling over a little bit. a bit softer in the last 10 minutes or so. lisa: after the dire projections yesterday talking about a downturn, they have not been the best prognosticators. jamie dimon was talking about going back five years, it depends on when. tom: rick wagoner, general motors, one of the first ceos i talked to, duke economics, he can talk about economics.
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he's got credibility to do that. jonathan: i think bank of america is good at referring back to the research branch of the bank. tom: yes. i want to talk about -- talk to solomon about markets. ♪
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tom: equities rolling over just a little bit. good morning to you. equities down across the board here on the s&p 500. negative on the nasdaq. starting negative as well. your s&p shaping up as follows if we can get it on the screen for you. are we going to do that? are we not? what took so long? tom: they are looking at the dow. jonathan: is that what they are doing? tom: there are looking at the dow. a great note from axios. showing how foolish the dow is
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now, how antiquated it is. tom: felix actually has got some major credit here. i wonder if they are going to make changes in the index to equilibrium. jonathan: let's say they stop price waiting in the index. let's say they start market cap waiting. i wonder how much more money that would attract. my problem with the dow -- tom: the journals talk. jonathan: it is not about whether i think it is going to be up or down, it is the construction of it and that given the last 20 years and this massive shift over the last decades cynically, there is just not that much money indexed to the dow. tom: it is cultural, but the gap has gotten wider in the last year. >> i get it. you want to know where the
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market is. you want to know where the dow is. the way i've described it, it is like asking for the weather for a town that people don't live in anymore. it kind of doesn't make sense to me. tom: where we are going to be in 20 years on this, i figure we are going to be dashed jonathan: clearly things have shifted, but it wouldn't be difficult to update this and change it. 30 companies are a cross-section of the american economy. big tech names. i think it makes sense. i think that is good, that is great. tom: it is made up of individual names and lisa's glancing at individual names. what are the plans on that? lisa: i am looking at apple and i don't know if you saw these stories that one of its suppliers, that is -- tom: it is a complete failure. lisa: a demand-side issue.
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not seen people buying as many iphones has been the main issue. that others share down 1.5%. not more notable in terms of the scale, but this is homebuilder, a luxury homebuilder. it is amazing to see anything given some of the prognostications, but they came out with a forecast better than expected. that comment to me, was notable. tom: i still don't know what carvana is. what is carvana besides they make stupid ads? lisa: it is an online car dealer. used cars. the issue is that there are other used car dealers, and those shares are down 19%, almost 20%. there has been a lot of fighting with some of the creditors. tom: we may have damian sassower coming up in this odd emerging
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market ballet that we have in the last three days or so. right now with an incredibly important report, victor joins us, global head of strategy. victor, thank you that you don't mince words. you talk about dispersion, downgrades, defaults. is it feasible we could have a bloomberg total return bond indexed two years in a row with price down? >> it doesn't happen often, but it does happen. for credit in 2000, 2003, almost three years of negative excess returns, 14, 15, something similar happened it is certainly possible. tom: i look at the not impossible and it comes down to your really terse language. let's go to downgrades right now. are the agencies behind the risk that is out there now? >> i suspect so.
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there a lot of enthusiasm at the moment because, you know, fundamentals seem to be fine. we have the rate hikes already and what is also happening is that they have been using up the liquidity buffers they built during covid. so they've gone from effectively lower liquidity to not much liquidity at all. so we are just going to have, going into 2023, refinancing of all the debts, that way you start building in higher interest expense, and that way you start putting negative pressure on ratios, and suddenly you're going to have a fundamental environment that they won't like as much, and that is for the downgrades start to happen.
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lisa: consensus seems to be that the next year is going to be a year of investment recredit. the deterioration in leveraged loans but if you hang on and you watch benchmark rates come in simply because we do start to get some sort of downturn scenario, investment grade will be a sweet spot. do you basically agree with that consensus right now? >> i think investment grade should outperform the credit market, but let's remember, the enthusiasm near comes from the fact that certainly you've got deal back in investment grade credit. that spreads too, by the way. obviously great for investors. the investors yield is the cost of funding, and that has gone up a lot. normally, first you get a bit of
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rate risk and you move on. that transition i think we still have ahead of us. a bit of downward pressure and on top of that, you start adding a bit of margin compression. you get it is a slowdown in certainly, leverage starts to go higher as well. you are going to look at pretty substantial amounts of downgrades. we think about $100 billion or so that u.s. corporate's could lose rating and goat noninvestment grade. i don't think that is in the price. i actually think that is the blind spot right now. where people can still be surprised. lisa: there is a question about when it becomes a systemic risk. she said she is very concerned about the leveraged loan market is potentially being a note of
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systemic risk, of some sort of more significant disruption. do you see anything fundamentally that could drive that? >> i'm not sure i would call it systemic risk. but i would call it a canary in the coal mine, if you like. it is probably the only market where you could argue there were some of the more meaningful deterioration over the last few years. if you look at the lower rated part of the space, we think more than half those companies can end up next year with an interest rate coverage of less than one. that is basically the definition. that being said, you end up with a large number of companies unable to meet their current debt payments with their incomes at a time when the fed is
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essentially going to ration credit. tom: victor, we have damian sassower coming up, and right now we've clearly got a dollar tendency flat to weaker. we've got the idea again percolating that equities will do better than good. tell us about the opportunity or risk in emerging-market debt. is that a place where it is so beat up, so cheap that you have got to own it, or is this still a minefield? victor: it is not so beat not that it is a homerun, but you are right, it tends to do well. that is not necessarily error view immediately because of the status around the dollar, but it has got a few things going for it. one is obviously the dollar.
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the other is china reopening. there is no part of the liquid credit space that benefit as much from china open emerging markets. that would probably suggest em can outperform market credit in the months ahead. jonathan: we had the last -- same thing 40 minutes ago. just to get you up to speed, it is interesting to see the equity market roll over and dollar is not stronger. in fact, the dollar is weaker. lisa: this came after some better-than-expected gdp data. eufinance -- asking how much of the dollar story and how much of the other side of the trade? tom: is this an artificial reality compared to what we are going to see on inflation? we can go down like we are going
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down now, it keeps us occupied. and then boom, we go the other way. jonathan: would you like a sneak peek of next week? month over month, this is our survey. an estimated 0.3%. if you want to the headline year-over-year, 7.7 to 7.3. a drop to 6.3. again, that comes 24 hours away from the fed decision. tom: i'm just sort of worn out by the volatility now. we are going down to the next week. friday last week, or thursday last week? it completely changes the way everyone talks about the market. it is a hard landing. the sentiment doesn't shake price, price shapes sentiment. lisa:lisa: i think that is fair.
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as morgan stanley just cut their expectations for the output and sales of iphones because of the recent warnings from the supplier, this goes to the question of how recently is the consumer? that has been the defining feature between whether things are heating up or slowing down. tom: very quickly, a landmark today, boeing makes the last 747. seat 60 j was my favorite c. this is for developers worldwide. 52 years on, that is it for the single best engineering invention of our lifetime. jonathan: you are emotional about this. tom: it is a huge deal. it is the queen of the skies. >> keeping you up-to-date with news from around the world, with the first word, i'm lisa mateo. the erratic senator rafael warnock has turned back herschel walker in georgia's runoff
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election. warnock was reelected with a little more than 51% of the vote. his victory will give democrats a 51-49 edge in the senate, making it easier to legislate. walker had been backed by former president trump. china is retreating from covid zero policies that is blamed for damaging the economy. beijing will now allow some people to quarantine at home instead of in centralized camps. it is also scrapping virus tests to enter public venues. covid zero push down consumer and business confidence and left people stuck in a cycle of outbreaks in lockdown saudi arabia rolling out the red carpet for xi jinping today. the chinese leader will present the kingdom for several days and take part in a regional summit leaders. according to the news agency, they are promising agreements with some $30 billion. it comes to month after the saudi's snubbed president biden pleas for oil. the ceo of euronext say there is
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a new normal in europe. firms are now listing outside london because the uk's financial capital has been declining since rights. >> brexit was a big decision and a big decision builds big consequences. london used to be the largest financial center of the european union and everybody like that. today, london is the largest financial center of the united kingdom. what is happening is that companies that would have been considered a listings in london listed outside of london. >> several weeks ago, paris overtook london as europe's largest stock market. global news 24 hours a day on air and on bloomberg quicktake. powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg.
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then let's take back our market share. checkmate, chess heads. girls, i said “bedtime”! >> we still have the fed just remarking on it, indicating
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below 70. i think that is the first test. jonathan: we are getting closer. that was just yesterday. crude today is negative on the year as of earlier this morning. just absolutely ridiculous. here is a snapshot of the price action for you right now. $74.37. a little more than 1/10 of 1%. yields a bit higher by a single basis point. and this is interesting. just breaking down that correlation between stronger dollar and risk appetite. equities are down seven tents of 1%. the dollar is weaker, not stronger. tom: there is an oddity to it, to say the least. that is a separate story, but the big story to me is we are addicted to these figure moves on strong dollar. what we saw in shock for six months, maybe it is over. jonathan: is china underpinning that move? tom: with the yuan under seven,
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we have a strong risk. this is a joy. joining us right now, damian sassower with bloomberg intelligence chief emerging markets. credit suisse years ago had a famous chart with little flutters up. for those on radio, i am curving my hand up of what everybody got wrong, the interest rate fed. you can make the equivalent chart your world were finally, the dollar is weaker. we are there right now once again. >> you know my mom worked at credit suisse back in the day. tom: really? >> i don't want to go off-topic. tom: it is surveillance, we would never want to do that. >> all week long, it is the first half which is going to be an absolute mess. we expect spreads to go wider. china is supposed to reopen. for emerging markets, i think
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that is what you have to hang your hat on. certainly, that is what is pushing the broad dollar index a little beaker here. i have to say, that is what is going to affect the currencies of large. i don't think it is going higher here. tom: is the opportunity in the risk of equities, or in debt? >> e.m. debt, it has a high correlation to u.s. treasuries. if you are of the belief that the u.s. treasuries are the new -- and we are, like jp morgan and other smart people, they should do 7%-10% as well. jonathan: what is the most important factor, china were the fed? >> it is china in terms of currencies, the fed in terms of data. let's be clear. if you think that in terms of credit equities, it is going to
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be the fed. if you think of it in terms of rates, you have got to look at the currency, you got a look at the dollar you want, you got look for euro-dollar. it is to decide of the same coin. the euro-dollar has really had a greater impact over the last year. it has not always been that way. already moving back into that bear regime? i would say so. jonathan: how would you frame it currently? is this a full reopening or just easing restrictions? >> jonathan, that is a rhetorical question, right? you know what i'm going to say. jonathan: i need answers, come on. >> with china reopening -- and don't get me wrong, they will reopen -- it is going to be very, very different than we have seen in years past because of the property crisis, because of everything going on on the ground. i think china is a big deal.
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curve flattening in asia is probably a trend you want to play at the current moment but i think that is probably where you want to park your money amidst the crisis that i see coming in the first half of next year. lisa: a lot of the developing world raise rates ahead of the fed and a lot more quickly and out front of what we see now. can they be the first to start cutting and actually bring investment to the country? can that be supported at a time when you don't necessarily get the same kind of currency responses the cutting and hiking? >> lisa, we all want to think so. we all want to play the receivers. those are the five economies that are probably going to cut rates in the new year. the extent to which they cut rates are only thinking cumulatively over the course of 2023, 200 basis points if that. all of those, that is not a lot of rate cuts. if you are planning for receivers, you are not going to get the juice, i don't think.
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it is going to be about credit spreads and as you move in u.s. recessions, we haven't seen it yet. that is what we are all going to be looking for in the coming year. lisa: so let's talk about your mother. i am kind of kidding, but i am kind of not. holland a second. >> -- hold on a second. lisa: i and curious about the experience of the trader out there. some of the desks entering an incredibly difficult, very different reality where we have a motley picture of rates and inflation. damien: what is the average age? probably 24, 25. admittedly, i am not trading the market anymore every day, so i don't know how a lot of these markets are structured. but i cut my teeth in the late 90's at goldman sachs with party transactions and for me, when
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you start to see some of the things happening that we've been waiting for, the cost of collateral relative to cash, it starts to move now for eight months. there is more collateral out there than cash because the fed is tightening the screws. that is something start to break. that is when we see crowding it other issues. jonathan: you used the word crisis two minutes ago, it wasn't lost on me. why did you use that word? >> the gdp emerging markets really is at an all-time high. growth is going to be 2.9%. that is really, really low. china growth is going to before percent may be. these are not grade levels relative to history. they are crisis levels. admittedly, we talk about emerging markets, the argentina's of the will, the sri lankas. there is a lot to be had there.
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i don't know if it is real. >> at least he admitted. >> degraw is going to texas, the air and judged derby turned out to hunt a $30 million opening day. they are now up to $360 million plus. what do you think? >> look, he could get there. something along those lines, i don't know why he played for the giants i think he is probably going to want to stay in new york. >> i don't know if that is fair. moving to new york as a lifestyle decision. >> get me derek jeter back in the shortstop. >> if you want the documentary on derek jeter. aaron judge, i am happy to have that contract offer public he felt like it was putting him in opposition.
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it was the same thing. tom: where are the dodgers and the angels in this? >> i could see the boston red sox. they are like a slumbering giant of their. jonathan: i'm still waiting for somebody to explain the financial model of this. $300 million. lisa: in all honesty, this is actually one of the oddities of the baseball market, is the major markets have amazing retail royalties for all the products that they sell. incredible ticket sales. if you ever bought tickets, you know how expensive they are. season-ticket holders, and all of these contracts with cable companies, all of these revenue streams that give them a lot of money that they can throw after some of the top talent. is it worth it? and we can discuss it. jonathan: the american market is
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just absolutely massive, it is amazing. >> i thought you were really classy. tom: i have no idea what she is talking about. jonathan: the world cup is deeply emotional. tom: i've learned this. will it be the same in america? jonathan: you have to realize that for a supporter of spain like maria tadeo, she views their performance as have the rest of the world perceives her country. like that is really, really important. as an individual of those countries, you believe people will have a different perception of your country, where you are from based on how that team performs at a single sport in a single game. tom: back to the center, maria doesn't like it. jonathan: we use to have that simpsons cliff, didn't we?
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>> there is a hopeful scenario where you can get us off, but we need to be relisted. >> i think most people are overly concerned with recession.

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