tv Bloomberg Markets Americas Bloomberg January 20, 2023 10:00am-11:00am EST
>> from the financial centers of the world, this is "bloomberg markets," with alix steel and guy johnson. ♪ alix: it is 30 minutes into the u.s. trading day. friday, january 20. avoiding the 1970's. larry summers warns central banks not to go soft and inflation. we will have an exclusive with esther george. tech braces for more pain. google cut 6% of its workforce
as big tech is forced to trim fat. the stock up over 4%. almost 100 80 million options contracts are expiring today, the highest in a decade for a january. equities fizzled this week after a stellar start to the year. i'm alix steel. my cohost in london, guy johnson. welcome to "bloomberg markets." it's been a difficult week for the data. a murky picture, making direction for equities more, get a. guy: no question. bad news is bad news, good news is bad news. it is hard to judge what is happening. i think the market is confused. everyone is confused. the data flowing on the bloomberg terminal and the latest numbers. existing home sales. i cannot see the month over month number yet. i will wait for the update. the data look better than anticipated. revised a little lower. this month, -1.5%. the rate of change shifts.
that was versus an expected number of -3.4%. confusing data. the data is all over the place. i keep coming back to claims telling us the labor market is strong. we base everything from there and you have a good handle on what's happening. alix: some superlative so that. existing home sales had the lowest since 2010 and dropped to most since 2008. that is what the fed might want to actually see happen. in terms of how you read the equity market, and i mentioned options expiration, it will be a difficult. volume is super huge. you have a lot of calls and option expiration. what do you do with a week like this? do you have to put on more puts for february? guy: given the start we had to the year a lot of people were on the wrong side of it and therefore chasing the market. therefore they are probably long on the call side of the fed and that will make this difficult. alix: a quick check on the
markets. s&p up by about .3%. nasdaq up by .7%. the dow a little weaker. transports have been behaving well, along with homebuilders. if you're looking for a breakout, that is what we are seeing versus the economic data which is more lumpy. guy: one stat. the survey of where the xxp will finish is 452. alix: the bond market, pretty much the whole market is on offer. the 10-year yields up by about six basis points. we want to send you over to kansas city fed president esther george in an exclusive exit interview. >> hello and thank you very much. we would like to welcome everyone watching on bloomberg television and radio around the world. esther george is joining me, the
president for a few more days of the kansas city fed. it is her sort of exit interview. we thank you for having us. i would like to start with the data we just got. data we saw earlier this week. existing home sales are falling. prices fell for existing home sales. we saw retail sales coming in, the ism come in weak. is the economy unfolding as you thought it would? >> welcome to kansas city. i think the economy is responding to some of the forecast and the work the federal reserve is doing full -- doing to bring better balance between supply and demand. as rates have gone up, it always hits most directly the real estate markets. we have seen that in housing were mortgage rates have doubled. these trends are to be expected in that sector in particular. michael: a lot of your
colleagues are paying more attention to current rate measures than to the data that comes out in the cpi and pce price measures. it is lagged. why don't you just ignore the idea of the core rate? everyone says inflation is too high, look at the core rate. you know that is influenced by housing. if you take that out, it seems inflation is coming down faster than you thought. esther: it's encouraging to see. we have seen this in the goods sector of the economy. that sector has been coming down . when we look at the housing component of that, we can see this year that should be coming out some of its highs. for me the focus has been on the services sector and the inflation pressures we continue to see their. -- there. inflation is still well above the fed's target. to be true to that price stability mandate it looks like
we will have to be a little more patient to see if we are on the right trend and be there more convincingly. michael: what would it take to convince you? esther: looking to the component of the market right now where we continue to see a lot of pressure. labor markets are very tight. i hear that. when i go around the region talking to our contacts. i think the pressures we see in the services sector look likely to continue. we knew that spending is continuing. people are still traveling a lot and taking advantage of that. i think that would be a component where i would want to see some progress before having more confidence we are seeing inflation come down. michael: the fed was slow to see inflation for rising as fast as it did. could you be too slow to see inflation falling? you think you could fall faster than you anticipate? esther: it is one of the things
we have to be mindful of. there are lags with this policy instrument. it transfers to financial conditions. we also know there is a lag. it is in the pipeline coming. it is one of the reasons i supported that downshift to a 50 basis point increase. i think it will be important to begin to watch carefully what signs we are seeing in the data, but also listening to our contacts in the region and understanding if we are beginning to see the kind of progress we need to see. michael: you had a reputation as it an uber hawk, very on top of inflation. you were the first to warn about the lags and the fact that the fed had to be careful. was that because of something you are hearing from your constituents out here? esther: in this most current tightening cycle i think we were beginning to approach this at the same time we were taking some dramatic moves to reduce the balance sheet. you want to make sure as you start off on that path of
tightening that you are communicating well and you are not going to be more disruptive with that. we are in a good place today. being very clear about the commitment to getting back to 2%, some of this aggressive tightening, but we are reaching a point where it's important to start looking around corners, listening more carefully for where some of those shifts will take place. michael: have you been surprised by the strength of the labor market and the fact you have raised rates 450 basis points in the employment rate has gone down question mark -- unemployment rate has gone down? esther: it's a tight labor market. we have seen 3.5% unemployment before. when you look at the people engaging in the workforce, we are still down in terms of participation compared to everywhere in 2019. we see a lot of job openings. for every available worker. in that sense all the indicators show how tight the labor market is. again, when ichabod and talk to people is their number one
concern. the ability to find people to come to work. on the supply side of the economy we are seeing some binding constraints. they are making it more complicated to see inflation come down in a convincing manner. michael: freezing on a planet by a full percentage point and it's about 1.5 million people lose their jobs. is there a path to avoid that? this is a different enough dynamic that on employment does not have the right significantly? -- rise significantly? esther: when we see those vacancies removed, as we see this imbalance begin to be addressed. hi think the scenario of a soft landing is one we would all want to see. there is possibilities for that. there is still a lot of money sitting in the checking accounts of households. they may hang on to that.
that might create more persistent need to tighten. you have to wait and see how it unfolds. michael: why do you think wall street does not believe you when you say you will hold rates for a long period and do whatever is necessary? esther: i don't know on the right person to speak on behalf of wall street. i will tell you we can have different horizons and different lenses through which we look at this issue. i hear a lot about recession probabilities. a lot of focus on what will be the peak rate. i think for me and my colleagues the focus is on getting back to price stability. that is really a very singular focus right now. thinking about what it takes to have that policy be sufficiently restrictive, not overly restrictive to get to that point of the 2% long-run inflation goal. michael: let's stipulate you do that. what do we see in the economy
when the cycle is over? do we go back to the new normal of low rates and low inflation? do we go to an old normal? what kind of economy do you expect? esther: i think it will be different. i don't have the crystal ball to see what it will be. one of the things that's been extraordinary to watch during this time, you had a lot of demand come in. the support from fiscal stimulus, from monetary policy produced a lot of demand. yet we are looking at still pretty low growth. we are looking at binding constraints on supply and in particular looking at the labor market. i think one of the things that will be interesting to watch unfold, and i hope research looks at this is we were focused for the last two decades on the demand deficiency in our economy. i think this time we have seen there are constraints on the supply side. what structural -- the nature of
those might be i think will be worth keeping an eye on. i think longer term it will have implications for monetary policy. michael: how is the structure of your district's economy changed in your time at the fed? how does that affect monetary policy? esther: so many things have changed over my time at the fed. this part of the country is heavily focused on ag and energy. the ag sector has seen a lot of consolidation. forms are bigger. the wa they do their work is different. we see transportation and logistics in this part of the country. very important factors in how we understand what is going on in the region. i suspect many of those trends will continue and as the structures in the economy change the federal reserve as it carries out its mission has to be mindful of that. we are well-positioned to do that both by boots on the ground as we talk to people and the
team of people that do our research and think about what is going on. michael: when you look at politics ec complaints from places in the south, the midwest that policymaking is decided on the coasts. i'm wondering if there is any kind of feeling the kansas city district does not get represented, not by you well but the feelings of people here are not as reflected in monetary policy, on wall street, and an economic policy as other parts of the country. esther: that is true. you have an economy that has different aspects to it across the country. the coast, urban areas versus rural. one thing that's important about the design of the federal reserve is that it does give line of sight to the policy deliberations for people in the 10 federal districts.
you can go from kansas all the way to the rocky mountains west and engage with people who understand their voices heard. those perspectives do go back to the fomc when we talk about the nature of policy. we don't have the kind of surgical instruments that let us affect those. i think they are being opened understand that the different regions experience the economy differently. people experience the economy differently. it's important for people to have trusted the work the federal reserve is doing and i think that design is so important to have that unfold. michael: you hear a lot from wall street that the fed gets things wrong. you have been with the fed for a very long time. even prior to becoming president of the kansas city fed. what do you think the biggest mistake in policy the fed has made over those decades you have been here? esther: i'm sure people could
point to a number of things. when i look at the long-run focus of this institution our mandate is one of long-run decision-making, of deliberation around that, ensuring stability in the economy. i think those are hard many times as the economy is shifting and you have seen different business cycles come through to get time to exactly right. one thing i think the federal reserve is committed to is learning from those experiences and learning what happened in them. we have done that from the 2008 and 2009 period when financial stability became such an important aspect of how the federal reserve changes mandates. you see a lot more attention on thinking about what role does financial stability play in terms of our ability to conduct the kind of monetary policy we need to. those kinds of attentions to
past episodes are important. michael: one big issue in economics is the treatment of women. your bank is one of the best in terms of diversity in the federal reserve system. is that a conscious effort? is it because you were a woman? esther: i think it is a conscious effort because, again, my own experiences are the breath of diversity you bring to problem-solving is so important. that happens around the fomc table. it happens in conferences. it happens when we hire people to continue the mission of the fed. the more you extend the opportunity for that talent to come in, whether it is at the jackson hole symposium, at the fomc table, it begins to widen. the perspectives that come to bear on important policy issues. i always thought that was important. i think it will continue to be
important for this institution. michael: you mentioned the jackson hole conference. this is davos week. it has changed dramatically as tv has come in and it's become a bigger thing. you let tv come to the jackson hole conference. are you worried it takes over? a lot of people hoping to be invited want to know what the future of the conference is going to be like. esther: i think you know we have been very transparent about what goes on at jackson hole. that's been a commitment from the start. this is a conference focused on central-bank issues. we bring academics and policymakers to talk about those issues. a commitment to being transparent has always been there and has served as well. it informs the public about what goes on at the conference. during the pandemic when we could not gather in person would begin to find other ways to do it. many organizations did. we created the opportunity to do
that. we will keep that commitment to transparency. michael: esther george, thank you much. chiefs or jaguar's? esther: time in kansas city. i think it will be a great lineup and i'm rooting for the chiefs. michael: per final interview as president of the kansas city federal reserve. we will send it back to you. guy: thank you very much indeed, mike mckee and kansas city fed president esther george. we wish her well and thank her for her service. coming up big tech, big cuts. google the latest company to slash the workforce. 12,000 jobs said to go. details to follow. the start up his next. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ ose in life - a “why.” maybe it's perfecting that special place that you want
lisa: it is a time for a look at some of the biggest business stories. elon musk could testify as soon as today in the tesla fraud trial internment cisco. shareholders contend his 2018 tweets about a plan to take the electric carmaker private amended tell lies that cost them big losses. his lawyers are arguing he was not sincere. saudi arabia's sovereign wealth fund considered by formula one racing defaulted in the early stages last year when it's owner liberty media was not interested in selling. the fund valued formula one it well above $20 billion. genesis has become the latest crypto firm to collapse in the wake of the ftx exchange downfall. they filed for chapter 11 bankers who protection in new york. its top 50 claims amount to about $3.4 billion. more job losses.
wayfair cutting about 10% of its workforce. the company announced the reduction would include around 80% of its corporate employees. initiative will not to more than 1.4 billion dollars in annualized cost actions. it is expected to help wayfair break even on adjusting's earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization basis earlier in 2023 has a first step towards positive free cash flow. google is joining the list of tech companies drastically scaling back on operations. alphabet says it will cut about 12,000 jobs, more than 6% of its global workforce. google has been dealing with a slowdown in digital advertising. last year the cloud computing division still trails amazon and microsoft. that is your latest business flash. guy: thank you very much. 22 minutes past 7:00 on the west coast. -- 10:00 on the west coast.
joining us now is alex webb a bloomberg quicktake. i want to start with the google story. google is the quintessential growth stock. can you be a growth stock and cut jobs at this kind of scale? alex: i wonder if that is a question the management is asking themselves. you have seen the share price come down massively. a lot of that has to do with interest rates and tech stocks generally being a bit less appealing on that basis. they are trying perhaps to show investors they can increase profitability without needing to grow the top line. if that is the thought process, it would suggest maybe there is a slight pivot away from the growth trajectory. to be maybe cynical, maybe it is a rainy day and they are using that is cover to cut some of the chaff so when things start to
perk up again, which they may well do, they're in a better situation. alix: looking at class a shares of pe about 20 times. is 20 times enough to justify a growth stock that may no longer be a growth stock? alex: i think 20 times is in line broadly with the rest of the market as a whole. the s&p 500. do you say a lot of the sizable stocks in the market are growth stocks? this might be a? for an equity strategist than me. clearly a discount to apple and a premium to facebook. arethe question nobody knows te answer to yet is are these changes permanent. guy: let's talk about netflix. management changes there.
and things are working. it looks like it is actually going to be delivering. has netflix come through the hole and now on its way out again? alex: if we take it back to this question about growth stocks, one of the things with growth stocks is they are sort of an assumption. i am massively over civil fine but at some point you can flip a switch and generate cash flow when you need to. that is the question with netflix. is that possible? one of the things driving subscriber growth is investing in content. you need new content not just for new subscribers but to retain existing ones. there's always going to be a relatively high level of cash spend. the actual profitability missed estimates even though the user growth was higher. the question about the advertising business is, is that we have offsetting the cash spend and yet retain subscribers? netflix is saying yesterday when
they announced the numbers the people who have been signing up for the ad supported tear are not cannibalizing the existing high-level subscribers. time will tell of that is actually the case. they might have been attracted to that tier to make proper money but they have to have a well-functioning advertising business. they could be making upwards of $15 per month per user with half of that coming from ads. they have got to build that up and it's not there yet. alix: how much can they actively make per user to justify the kind of spend? you mentioned $15. did they get to $20, $25? alex: hulu dose seven dollars a month of advertising revenue per prescriber. if you can get that to $13, you're looking at $20 a month. alix: thanks a lot, alex webb. coming up, we turn to the broader market. nasdaq 100 of by 1%.
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alix: we are about an hour into the u.s. trading session. we are looking at another rally, kailey leinz is tracking those moves for us. >> this is likely to still be a down week because we are coming off a three day losing streak on the s&p 500. .61% move is not enough to offset that. it is outperforming, up 1%. we had bond yields moving higher. the bond yield is up to 345 but
it's likely about the individual stories. netflix is up 7% after blowing out of the water on subscriber subscription. investors are taking that news well. technically bad news that is being taking well is job cut announcement. wayfair is cutting 10% of its workforce but getting a really nice reward in the market for that. that stock is up 15%. investors liking those cost-cutting efforts. alphabet inc. announcing it's going to cut about 12,000 people, that stock is up 5%. the ceo saying i take full responsibility, we over hired. they are facing a different economic environment. let's talk about the economic data we have gotten today in the form of existing home sales.
they were not down this much is expected but it declined for the 11th month in a row. is one area where you are seeing the deterioration but not showing up in the labor market. it raises the question of where that policy goes from here. they said they will do smaller hikes next month. that is something patrick harker echo that the days of the fed hiking 75 basis points are over but he expects they will raise rates a few times this year. the question becomes, is it about the journey or the destination and how long we stay there? that's what this market is contending with. guy: the market has base he idea that we will see a decent sized recession. the labor market is holding up. esther george talking about a
soft landing. let's turn to our question of the day, where does that leave us on the highs and for the year? joining us now, aoifinn devitt, i was looking for some data on this. if i take a look at european equities a we surveyed 19 strategist for what they saw at the end of the year number on the ear in. aoifinn: 17, 18 days into the year. we would hope we have not seen the highs of anything. we are seeing the repeat of that good news is bad news and bad news is good news conundrum that took us through 2022. what has been a surprise, and i
didn't see this in any of the 16 outlooks on fed policy, none of them accurately call this our performance of non-us stocks. no one called the reversal of the dollar direction and that is the best surprise so far. alix: does this put strategist in an awkward position? do they need to chase the rally? how does earnings factor into something like this? aoifinn: one of the messages i saw was the telegraphing of bad news in advance. that's why we are not seeing the negative earnings surprises that we would. companies are taking a leaf out of the book as far as getting expectations managed and then they surprise on the upside. i think there is more upside again when it comes to europe. this mild winter that's not great for ski resorts is good in
terms of energy demand and pricing. that's probably surprise no one saw coming. it is time to go back to the drawing board on this model. guy: the yield curve is telling me that we are heading for a bad recession? is the yield curve wrong? aoifinn: it has probably gotten ahead of itself. if we look across the outlooks, a recession was an outlier, some had no recession and they were hoping that we would muddle through. employment was strong and that would salvage the consumer. the consumer would be spending on the defensive names and nondiscretionary items, consumer staples. the yield curve is ahead of itself but it is still getting the hawkish sentiment from the fed. it would be churlish to go anywhere else in terms of the
yield curve. from investors standpoint, it's a good time to be sitting in cash. there will be more fallout than some of those lagging sectors like real estate. alix: what's confusing to me, you look at the breakouts, homebuilders, transportation, these sectors could break out. those sectors don't make sense if the bond market is pricing in something binary like 5% and stay there or a bunch of cuts because we are looking at a big recession. aoifinn: this was the question of the day a few weeks ago, how much of the bad news is in the price? with homebuilders we saw a slackening and demand for new homebuyers. much of that was already in the price. if you look at the way netflix numbers have increased, i would guess that we are getting close to a normalization. we are coming out of the post
covid froth and we are getting close to a normalization in homebuilders but also in areas like general consumer demand staples. guy: let's talk about the earnings season because we are about to get into the thick of it. can we have an earnings recession without a recession? aoifinn: i was suggest what we would see as positive news on the market side while the economy does not look great. we will see bankruptcy, closers, feeling the pinch, i think the earning side will exceed that. even looking at those numbers from google and netflix, if we look at those in wayfair, they don't make any sense in light of where the direction of the businesses are going. but the earnings picture will be rosier because of the managing expectations.
we may have a dampened mood on the economy side that will not match what we see in markets. alix: guy was talking about early cycle and it feels like the economy is late cycle and the market feels early cycle. that's a weird dynamic to parse out. we are seeing a ton of money going to e.m. and europe as well, does that continue? aoifinn: that has surprised me. a bit of performance chasing. even during the course of the year we were undermining the case for investing in russia. we asked if china was even investable or if there was a fundamental change in terms of the outlook in china. this was the macro backdrop we were talking about? so why would we see emerging markets upticks all of a sudden? i ceo weighting of conviction.
i do see investors in europe. there are pharmaceutical and industrial names with no reason and selloff. i do see better demand for those valuations but on the emerging market side i would be surprised if we saw a strong rally. alix: aoifinn devitt, chief investment officer. talk about trying to get all the data through here. new home sales following the most but it was better than expected. we will get that information from skyler olson of zillow group.
bloomberg markets. that's coming up ahead, this is bloomberg. keeping you up-to-date from around the world. in germany, a meeting of the u.s. and allies on military aid to ukraine has ended. there was no decision if germany will provide new tanks to ukraine. but they will move quickly if an agreement is agreed on. the kremlin may change the way it calculates taxes on oil. one of the options would add a premium to the key expert blend in northwest europe. in japan, inflation has had 4% for the first time in four decades. it is likely to lead to more speculation that the central bank will changes monetary policy. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake,
powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta, this is bloomberg. alix: existing home rates falling for the 10th straight month. we are live to esther george about the impacts of the tightening. esther: i think the economy is responding to some of the work the federal reserve is doing to bring better balance between supply and demand. as rates of gone up, it always its most directly real estate markets and in particular we have seen that in housing. alix: joining us now is skylar olsen from zillow group inc where do we sit, where do we bought amount? skylar: we are writing the wave of race. it came out a bit better than
expected. that comes with getting a bit of a break with mortgage rates. there is growing sentiment that you can expect that to bob around six. things are definitely slow. this will be a quiet year. we are down new listings every month. the rate of new listings dropping into the market still suffers from interest rate lock-in. you are looking at 18% what was lower in pre-pandemic. good signs coming forward, the builders were on the chair with a negative builder sentiment for 12 months. really eroding in their confidence to start them build new homes. this was the first month in a long time where their confidence
increased. they think it has a lot to do with the costs coming down and it's important and healthy in housing that we are not looking at pandemic profits. it's important to do that towards a stable real estate market. guy: what i'm getting from you, it's bad but it could be worse and there are a few positives creeping in like the cost of materials. how much worse would it be if the labor market rolls over? at the moment, the labor market looks solid. people have jobs. skylar: these are very closely connected markets. i think the best example to think through is thinking about seattle, washington. we have a high concentration of tech and that slowed down its growth compared to other
segments that were slow to open after the pandemic. it was over hiring, too much pressure in that space so we are seeing that layoff and slow down. in seattle, home values dropped 4.5% in the month that month, this past december. that was an extreme drop. you can see this relationship between confidence in job growth , access and her willingness to move forward in the market when housing is expensive. alix: the narrative within tech is that they will go get jobs somewhere else. does that regional market get better or is it a net negative? skylar: it's a net slowdown. lots of places are slowing down, even the more affordable markets are not experienced the pressure
they saw last year. it's absolutely the case that the places we see the least amount of pressure are the areas that experienced such an extreme boon in the first place. those prices coming down is a relief but they struggled with affordability enough. the incentive to move to a different market and why we think about these flows from very unaffordable to affordable, i like to look at years to say. if i'm in the bay area, it will take me to decades to save up 10% down with 5% of my income. i can go to the midwest and that looks like 7-8 years. there's a huge incentive to move onto markets that did not explode or just have always been more affordable as we reach
limits on people's ability to qualify. guy: and working from home makes those moves more palatable. in aggregate, is the u.s. housing market signaling a recession? skylar: i don't think so. i think we are experiencing the same kind of slow down incentives that other markets are experiencing. that recession dynamic will not come from the housing market when we move forward but it is a signal of the slowdown. in some way there are signs in the housing market, just like we see returned activity whenever rates give us a break that to me signal more stability. the last place that signals are giving us cap fitted is our market rate read index. that leaves the cpi measures,
one third of inflation measure come from shelter costs. our leading market rate rent index and they are excellent signs of rental inflation coming down quickly. from my perspective, the soft landing is all about price growth coming down. guy: that is what the data is pointing at at a number of different levels. it's really useful analysis, thank you so much. now the latest casualty in the crypto crisis, is one that you want to pay attention to because in some ways genesis has similar
and the winklevoss companies about the exposure to a single counterparty. you have a lot of young people in finance and crypto learning about counterparty risk. you have a lot of interesting creditors here. they're unsure how the different parties will fare when it cap said the final decisions about the money they get back. one interesting name in finance that's among the biggest creditors with almost 50 million is marcello pare's investment firm. it will be interesting to see whether he and others are as confident after so many hits. guy: when ftx broke it was a top story. this is not the top story today. are we getting used to the idea that this will be something that will ripple through the
industry. were we anticipating this? how does this compare? sonali: maybe it's not as bad as it could've been. bitcoin has been recovering because more steam has been run out of the system. because this creditor list and how contain the exposure is, it's sad how much money is still on the table for more than 340,000 people. which is why that situation is so important. the sec is also on the case of both these companies. because this is a global training business, it shows you that as of now, things are fairly contained despite all of the drama and disasters we have seen over the past 12 months. even in the case of ftx, there is still hope that people can get money back.
an earlier proposal with genesis was that some creditor groups could get $.70 on the dollar. there are some that have accepted something along those lines. these are still early days. there are a lot of questions among the counterparties because there seems to be some dispersion here. if you look at the winklevoss response, you see the threat of potential litigation among the gemini businesses as well as the current digitally currency group. it could get ugly still. let's see how quickly they want to work this out for their clients. guy: it's amazing how orderly this process looks relative to ftx. thank you very much indeed.
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guy: european stocks bounced toward the end of the week. it has been a bumpy week. the highest of the year, that is a key question that were trying to figure out. it's been the best start ever for european equities. we have never seen this before, 2023 is setting records. countdown to the closest starting right now. >> the countdown is on in europe. this is bloomberg markets: european close with guy johnson and alix steel.