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tv   Bloomberg Markets European Open  Bloomberg  January 25, 2023 3:00am-4:00am EST

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i am tom mackenzie in london and these are your top stories. microsoft falls in late trade off after forecasting slowing sales for its planned computer unit. tesla earnings are out tonight. sources say the u.s. and germany are set to send tanks to ukraine in a move set to prevent a fracture to allied unity. and activist investor hindenburg research accuses adani group companies of accounting fraud. the indian conglomerate says it will respond shortly to the allegations. let's take a look at the futures and when it comes to such a big week for tech earnings, the concerns have always been that the cuts in jobs were flagging slowing demand, and indeed that was what we heard from executives at microsoft in terms of its cloud division business, azure, and what they expect to see softening demand for that
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crucial part of the business. that has led to broader risk off sentiment across markets. ftse 100 bound. interesting in terms of the pricing of bank rate hikes. bloomberg economics now see 50 basis points followed by 25 basis points from the bank of england. the task for officials of the ecb, that rhetoric around how fast and high to go on rate is. over in france, the cap is up 0.1%. interesting to hear from jeremy grant saying that the s&p stateside could be looking at further losses and downside of around 17%. let's see how things are shaping up across assets. futures is in the u.s. pointing lower at this time due to that microsoft story on the importance of tesla and their earnings later today. we had asml earnings in europe
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coming out slightly stronger than estimates. aussie dollar was big, currently gaining 0.7%. that is the biggest gainer for the aussie dollar after cpi inflation came out for our straley at a 32 year high and wrapped up expectations for another rate hike. bitcoin looking to post two straight days of losses since the start of the year. it has had a pretty strong run up. it is just down zero point 8%, tying to the risk off sentiment and the microsoft story. and adani enterprises down after the claims of fraud from hindenburg research. these are allegations at this stage and they will be putting out a response is in near term. let's get over to valerie tytel. you have been looking at peak inflation, what it means for
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volatility, and risk position. valerie: that is right for it i want to zero in on this chart which is showing implied volatility in the treasury and fx markets. the treasury market is this line in blue. with of these lines, we are still elevated versus pre-covid levels, but it has declined. what has spurred that decline was that peak inflation print in november when it was clear in the u.s. we might be past the peak of inflation. volatility has declined and what is important about this is a lot of asset managers, wall street drinks -- banks use a lot of volatility in their risk models. so if you are sure that inflation has peaked and volatility has peaked, that means every day when these asset managers come into the office and refresh these bar models, their value of risk has gone down, which will push them further out the risk curve into
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riskier assets like e.m. bonds, emfx. it is now quite certain that the treasuries, which last year did not behave like a safe haven asset, they can still see further declines in volatility. we are getting the haven asset status, leading investors to move further out into the second quarter of 2023. tom: a great chart on falling volatility and what that might mean in terms of pushing investors further out. there is a lot to digest across markets, including the tech sector where we mentioned microsoft shares swung into the red after it said that revenue growth in its cloud computing business will ease. the company also warned of a further slowdown in corporate software sales and on the economic front, inflation accelerated the fastest pace in 32 years the last quarter for australia, prompting bets for an
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interest rate hike from the rba at the next meeting. joining us now is niall o'sullivan, cio for neuberger berman. as well as kristine aquino. kristine, let's start with the tech story. microsoft, this had been the concern. we have been weighing up the cost cutting which some investors saw is a positive versus the risks around they fall off in demand. that seems to be what is transpiring for microsoft. the broader implications for the tech sector, then. kristine: the big read across is microsoft's warning that the sales are bound to slow, and that moves with what we are seeing in this tech sector, the cost cutting drive we are seeing in mass layoffs and now feeding into them and for services in the sector. that makes a lot of sense when you are thinking about companies
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that are gearing up for a challenging, potentially recessionary environment. they are trying to get their ducks in a row and trying to cut corners where they can. that is the strongest and most important read across we can get from these microsoft results. tom: how much do you want to draw out of the microsoft earnings for the tech sector? is this evidence we are facing a recession this year? niall: we are looking at slowdowns in the areas where consumer discretionary spending is greatest. both stories are quite interesting. the previous one about the risk turning, and this story about earnings is telling another side of things. what is driving markets at the moment are contradictions like that from the top-down and bottom-up. tom: kristine, when it comes to the central-bank action, valerie was talking about expectations from some in the markets that perhaps we are starting to see a
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pause being considered by some of the banks, but then australia reminding of the stickiness of inflation at 32 year highs. is this an idiosyncratic story for australia? or is there a broader lesson here for central banks? how much of this will be digested by the hawks at the ecb? kristine: australia is a useful bellwether. it is worrying we are seeing inflation again at these levels. australia is a small, open economy. it is a very vulnerable one across the crest prince we are seeing from china, the u.s., and the global economy. the fact that we are again seeing and insurgents in inflation especially after we got indication from the rba that they will at least at thinking about a slow down in the tightening process, if not a complete fit to rate cuts, that poor is cold water -- that pours
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cold water to that notion. if you are thinking about banning on a soft landing -- betting on a soft landing and the idea we could avoid a slow down, what we are seeing in australia is the opposite. tom: niall, what do the markets need to see to get what the banks are telling us about rate hikes? niall: we think rates are going to stay high for longer. they will keep at it and maybe framing the question about those raises, i was reading yesterday that over the last 50 years, looking at 16 oecd economies, any time inflation has gone above eight, how long does it take to get below three? the median is about 10 years. in terms of what people are looking at here, they are hoping for an event -- you can describe it as they are trying for hope
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over experience for what will happen. but the point that has been made is that there is a real return of risk off sentiment in the bond markets. bond markets now have attractive returns that they did not have a four. -- have before. like you said, volatility has fallen, which means people can miss -- make risk positions. you are seeing a push and pull between what the markets want to believe and employing capital versus what the central banks are trying to tell them. what will happen over time as the inflation data is going to prove more sticky than people think. tom: what would you need to see to ramp up your risk exposure? would it be a pause or a cut? niall: at the moment, we have been overweight on the credit side because we think the positions have been attractive relatively speeding -- speaking. we are looking for a place where
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people begin to look more at the two year, five year, 10 year point. at this stage when you look at projections in the u.s., europe, they are projecting real returns at lower rates, which is what the central banks are saying they are not going to do. tom: the construction of china and the reopening theme, how do you want to play that story? niall: how that is playing out is on the commodities side. may be different than before, but you look at what that means for things like iron ore, copper, very good for the commodities complex. also in the recent past, the biggest fishery has been europe. -- beneficiary has been europe. we are reducing some of our positions in developed markets and moving towards emerging markets. tom: focused on em and china central to that play. thank you for that analysis.
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that is the neuberger berman cio for multi-asset strategies in emea and kristine aquino. it is a miss for givaudan. we will be joined by the ceo of the swiss fragrance maker. we will be talking about margins, input costs, and whether they will pass on some of those grievances in 2023. stay with us for that interview. this is bloomberg. ♪
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tom: welcome back. we have some lines dropping from adani group, their cfo, in response to the hindenburg research report and claims by that group of fraud.
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adani group. the adani group cfo commenting and putting out a statement saying that the company maintains the highest standards of corporate governance. this is our top story in the bloomberg business flash. here is laura wright. laura: shares in adani group companies are falling after the activist investor and didn't break research said it was shorting the empire's stocks. it -- hindenburg specializes in activist shortselling on the report was released the same day that adani enterprises began a key shares sale over subscribed. adani's cfo says the company has always been in compliance with laws. the u.s. stock exchange says that some trades will be declared null and void after glitches caused trading hold in hundreds of stocks.
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the exchange says the systems issue affected more than 250 stocks as trading started in yesterday's session. some of the biggest u.s. firms including wells farm -- wells fargo and mcdonald's were hit. murdoch is planning to drop the merger plan with fox. the deal first announced in october was widely seen as a way for murdoch to submit his control over the family media empire. that is the bloomberg business flash. tom: thank you very much. coming up, dani burger is joined by the chairman of the european investment fund for digital sovereignty. that interview is next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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tom: welcome back to the open. we are 19 minutes into the european trading day. are seeing losses on the european benchmark, concern from the tech sector on the back of softening demand flagged by microsoft's cloud business and the reminder of the stickiness of inflation reminded by the data out of australia. it is at 0.7 percent on the
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nasdaq futures. the purpose of the european investment fund is to help businesses access finance. this is part of your's quest to increase digital sovereignty. -- this is part of europe's quest to increase digital sovereignty. dani burger is at the largest equity conference in europe. good morning. dani: thank you. the prior ceo of the eif has started a new role. it is as chairman of the european fund for digital sovereignty, also known as the tech champions' fund. thank you for joining us this morning. i find it fascinating that you are now running a fund of funds to make sure you invest in european tech, or at least european tech stays in europe. how did we get to this place where you are worried about european tech getting financing
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abroad? why is european tech funding behind? alain: we have financing coming from outside of europe, but we would like to give an alternative source of funding for these companies that are going fast very successfully, but do not get money from europe . the role is about the number of these companies. three quarters of them will be financed by non-european funds. dani: what is the goal? how do you get europe up to speed? alain: we need to collect money from the member states, 22 member states which is quite remarkable have already signed up on this initiative. they will support the fund, which at the end will support these companies through the emergence of big funds in europe, which we do not have if
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you compare it to situations in the u.s. we have 40 funds over the size of $2 billion in the u.s. in europe, we have three funds. that the -- we do not have the means of supporting the creation or scale up of these firms. dani: you're coming from behind. the u.s. and asia is growing larger. how long do you foresee it to take to get to a place where you want to be at where those funds are readily available for european tech looking to refinance? alain: it will be quite fast for the europe initiative. the first investment should come in the first quarter out of this year. the idea that the ultimate goal is to finance about 15 to 20 big are funds, so beyond $1 billion, and making significant steps as
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big as other players in the world. doing that, we will be much closer to them and offering more support quickly in finances. dani: you mentioned that 22 member states are supportive of this and given all of the concerns around europe, fragmentation has been part of the conversation. in trying to get member states onboard, what would you say is the state of cohesion among eu board members? alain: this is a larger question. specifically there, we have been able to attract their attention because in most of the countries, you see the same fundamentals. the best example is in biotech, which has been financed by european funds in the states, therefore we know that the rest of the story, we are binding financing from the u.s. and the
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industrialization of the vaccines as a whole. the idea is again to provide such support and what we observe the question of. it is not limited to one or two countries. wherever you go, i have spent a lot of time talking to them. most of them are concerned by the fact that there companies and their talent which are moving from europe to elsewhere. dani: part of the conversation right now when it comes to corporate europe and energy transition, this is something that the fund is looking at specifically, the response to the americans, to the inflation reduction act. as you are looking at how funds invest in the energy transition, at the companies themselves, do you think europe need some sort of response to this? alain: yes, and europe is
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thinking how to facilitate specifically in the rule of competitions that we have in place. you remember during the climate crisis, we have introduced flexibility to these problems and this role will be extended from now. therefore we can expect additional measures and this fund that we are leading now is a valuable place to support companies. most of them will be attracted by these new incentives from the u.s. on the basis of technology, and this is exactly the point we are touching on. dani: do you think the primary response should be more support for the digital fund for european sovereignty? thank you so much for joining us this morning. tom, back to you.
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alain godard, the chair of the european fund for tech champions. tom: dani burger with the chairman of the european fund for digital sovereignty. let's get back to the stocks on the move. easyjet coming in with much better results than the markets had expected. it is rallying almost 9%, losses coming much lower for the last quarter than had been the estimates. let me give you a couple more lines on easyjet because they are also forecasting strong demand for their flights will continue in the quarters ahead. they are predicting strong demand. bernstein saying that the airline reporting season has started optimistically and they expect easyjet to be the first of several strong prints across the sector. certainly being rewarded for smaller losses than expected. givaudan, we will speak to the
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ceo in a couple of minutes. it was a missed for the fragrance maker. asml also coming in with a slightly better print in terms of their sales. they make high-tech equipment, their machines still in demand this year of -- demand this year despite the tensions around china. we will bring you more on that story throughout the hour. across the benchmark, equities are seeing losses of 0.2%. nasdaq futures pointing lower by 0.7%. coming up, we will be joined by the ceo of givaudan, gilles andrier. that is next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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tom: welcome back to the open. we are 30 minutes into the european trading day. your are your top stories.
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microsoft falls than late trade after forecasting slowing scales -- sales through its cloud computing unit. tesla earnings are out tonight. u.s. and germany are poised to send tanks to ukraine. it is a move likely to present a fracture to allied unity. and adani enterprises shares are losses as the cfo denies allegations by activist investor hindenburg research, accusing the indian conglomerate of accounting fraud. let's check in on the markets and microsoft sending shivers through the tech sector, bleeding into risk off moves we are seeing. the benchmark in europe down 0.2%. the ftse 100 holding off by just 0.1%. the debate among ecb officials continues. panetta coming out and saying,
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aren't we supposed to be analyzing the data? let's switch it over and see how things are playing out across sectors. not surprising that technology is at the bottom of the list, and the importance of its cloud division and the outlook for demand beating heart of the microsoft prospects and they suggest that sales will weaken in the weeks ahead. at the top of the list, utilities are a safe haven, travel and leisure with the games for easyjet and the back of the broader airline space. it was a strong beat for easyjet and that individual stop is rallying on the back of that. talking the earnings season, it was a miss for givaudan as fourth-quarter sales disappointed. morgan stanley sites severe d stocking in north america, hitting the company's taste and wellness unit. joining us now is gilles andrier
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, givaudan ceo. it is a busy day for you and the team. talk to us about the demand outlook in terms of volumes you are seeing from customers in the quarters ahead when you look ahead to the rest of 2023. gilles: looking quarter to quarter is not the right way to look at it. there are a number of new launches. there are many ways to look at this, the best way to look here, so we were looking in the year which was disruptive in 2022. we were successful passing down the price increase. we have the u.s. going down on the back of slowdowns of the consumer demand. inventory from our clients
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coming down, so they have adjusted inventories because of the supply chain. this is a one-time effect in 2022. at the same time, europe, people focus on the u.s. but not as much as the fact that europe is -- which i have never seen in my life. that is why we talk about the natural hedges moving along, where the geography is down and it can be supplemented by another geography. what we see with clients, we have the global clients, many of their volumes are coming down on the back of high price increases. for us, we are sated by the increase of volumes. again, talks about the natural hedges. tom: you talked about the ability last year to pass on
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some of the input costs. are you able to continue to do that in 2023? what level do you need to offset that input price? gilles: in 2022, we had these types of input costs, so about 70 million in personnel. 364 and overall 1.5 billion swiss francs. we actually managed to protect the down, so the ebitda mains at 1.5 billion swiss francs thanks to the price increase we managed in 2022. going forward, we still see some remaining headwinds for the products, which will go 5% for the group.
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the price increases are within the plans, we have been very collaborative, and we have managed over two years to move with those robust increases to price increases. we are very confident now. tom: the reopening impact of china on your business, very quickly. gilles: china was not that bad. we grew to percent in china. china is a big market for us, so with the reopening, we remain optimistic that the domestic sales in china will come back to growth we have been you stupid what is interesting is that the chinese have been consuming much more -- come back to growth we have been seeing. what is interesting is that the chinese growth has been coming
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back much more than before. tom: thank you for your time this morning on the challenges of passing through those high input costs. shares in adani group companies are paring losses because the cfo denies allegations by activist investor hindenburg. the short seller accuses that the firms owned by asia's richest man have brazen market manipulation and accounting fraud. adani group cfo says the company has always been in compliance with the law and maintains the highest standards of corporate governance. for more, let's bring in bloomberg's reporter who covers news from mumbai. what are the key allegations from hindenburg research? >> they made key allegations about account manipulation of fraud, and also thinking about the kind of share companies that have created. an also highlighting the
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accounts. these are key allegations that hindenburg has made. it is also not the first time that a firm like hindenburg has made these allegations. potential default by adani group were allegations as well. tom: what has the response been? to what extent is the group likely to assuage investor concerns? >> that is a good question. he covered a fair bit of it, but he also mentioned about the timing of such a report. they are in compliance with regulations and this timing clearly shows that there is intention behind this kind of statement.
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and as we speak, adani group has been set for hp share sale. -- for a key share sale. the market is expecting that to marginally continue buying, denying all of the allegations, and they are still in line with adani enterprises, which has launched today following the issue of ipo. tom: talk to us. the timing is intriguing, isn't it? the news breaks in the short position they are taking from hindenburg research, and you have the sale of shares today. how will received was that sale of shares? >> we picked up from key sources and sovereign funds over that
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and others like societe generale , as well as domestic investors. there are keen to invest and the final picture with the most value for the indian times when they informed us from the sources that the following issue is going to be resounding in sectors but also looking at key sovereign funds. tom: bloomberg's sanjai in mumbai. let's get you up to speed with what else is happening and bring you back to the story in the u.k. we have got lizzy burden in the ground outside of coventry. she is basically outside the headquarters of amazon in that city, and she is reporting on industrial strikes there. we have plenty more coming up. this is bloomberg. ♪
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tom: welcome back to the open. we are 42 minutes into the european trading day, pretty subdued action across equities. the top of the list, basic resources, bottom of the list, technology. that ties it to the microsoft story.
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let's get to the geopolitics and the u.s. and germany are poised to announce they will supply ukraine with their main battle tanks. it is understood that berlin has decided to send leopard tanks after washington agreed to send its own m1 abrams tanks. the move would represent a major policy shift of president biden and chancellor scholz in germany. for more, let's bring in roz matheson. talk about why we have the u.s. and germany coming together on this. >> the clock is ticking and this is happening now because there is a sense that russia may be gearing up as soon as next month for a fresh new offensive, possibly even to belarus in the north and that ukraine needs to get ready for that. not only just a potentially be able to stop russia in its tracks, but also to push russia back from the territories it occupied in recent months.
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the war on the ground is bogged down through the winter months, no one really making much ground, and this could be the moment for either country to make that push. for ukraine to be in a better position, they need these tanks and with speed, and that is the realization that has come through for germany and the u.s., under a lot of pressure from other countries in europe. we have seen poland being very pressing on germany for weeks to make this decision. tom: what impact would it have on the ground for ukrainians? rosalind: it would be substantial because they have been reliant on very old tanks. what they have since then his armored personnel carriers. these are much more lighter, these are fragile. these are properly western made tanks that are built to do a big job in the field. about 70 tons of the u.s. tanks
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might get bob in the mud in ukraine, but you are really trying to push through villages and towns. you need to send your tanks in first to protect infantry, so it could be a game changer for ukraine. tom: the calculation for d.c. and the germans is that this could be seen as escalation by vladimir putin. do we have any sense of the russian response to this move? rosalind: very quiet so far, but russia has been saying throughout that they have been sending different weapons in to retaliate. calculation is that they can now send these in and not have that substantial risk of vladimir putin saying this is a direct attack on russia by nato and these countries. they are taking that call at this point and also taking the call that ukraine needs it. if it is not going now, it will be too late. that is why these tanks need to get there asap. will it get there is in a matter
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of weeks or months? tom: thank you for getting us up to speed on that decision, the reported decision by the americans and the germans to provide supply of tanks to ukraine. let's get the bloomberg first word news with laura wright. laura: former vice president mike pence is the latest politician to be found with classified documents in his private possession. according to his attorney, a number of items were found in his home in indiana and turned over to the fbi in a recent search. two special councils are investigating similar breaches by president biden and former president trump. the new york stock exchange says some traits will be declared null and void after a glitch caused wild price swings and trading holds in hundreds of stocks. the exchange says a system issue affected more than 250 stocks as trading started in yesterday's session. some of the biggest u.s. firms including wells fargo and mcdonald's were hit.
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australian inflation accelerated to the fastest pace in 32 years in the final three months of 2022. that is prompting money markets to prices and interest rate hikes at the next month's rba meeting. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and at bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. tom. tom: laura wright in london. coming up, strike action in the u.k. spreads from the public to the private sector. we are live at amazon's warehouse in the english midlands. that is next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> is the u.k. leveling up? the data suggests not. in 2019, the conservative party won an election, promising to level up written -- britain. that is to close the gap with
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the richer region of london on the southeast. bloomberg is tracking the progress of leveling up against the government has us on metrics, which include measures like pay, productivity, and well-being. the picture is getting worse. since 2019, 77 percent of constituencies have fallen further behind london and southeast. in the so-called redwall streets , the former industrial heartland swung from neighbor the conservative at the last election 97% are losing ground. and these are direct levers that the government could be -- to reduce regional equality, but it is not. in transport, london and southeast received 105 pounds of spending per head at the last count. -- 905 pounds of spending per head at the last count. the spending gap on overall public services has also widened in favor of the capitol. the danger for rishi sunak as he
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risks an electoral backlash, as conservatives have not delivered on their promises. tom: that is joe mays on the failure of the leveling up policy. let's check in on some of the big corporate stories, a big week for earnings. asml coming in with eight --with a beat. they are seemingly brushing off concerns about further restrictions as japan and the netherlands, those two governments get closer to aligning with the u.s. and restrictions of sales to china. that stock down by 1.7%. givaudan, we spoke to the ceo about the challenges they faced around pricing. the ceo sees some optimism around china reopening, particularly for its fragrances. that stock currently down 0.7%.
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and easy jack -- easyjet close to flying, pardon the pun. they are up almost 10% of the back of optimism. the earnings story was a big beat and the losses were false marla -- far smaller in the recent quarter. getting significantly on the back of that news, the broader picture around the airline sector looking positive at this stage. it is a slightly different picture when it comes to industrial action, particularly around amazon. amazon's u.k. workers are on strike today. it is the first time at the amazon's warehouses in coventry. lizzy burden is on the ground for us. what is the latest? lizzy: i am not sure if you can hear the parking. we are on the picket line and cars are being stopped by the union on their way in to see whether they want to join the strike. 300 workers at this amazon fulfillment center are expected to join today. they are members of the gmb
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union which is asking for a 50% pay rise to 15 pounds an hour. they say that is necessary for workers to deal with the cost-of-living crisis and that they deserve it because they have grafted through the pandemic. but amazon is not even entertaining that demand. it says that its offer of pay is competitive, pays the national living wage. it is proud of what it pays, it says, but the union says that is nothing to brag about paying the absolute member number -- absolute minimum. amazon has gotten 200 million pounds of profits in 2021. the union says if amazon does not give in today, it will try to organize more strike dates later on in the coming weeks. tom: the importance of this story is that this is not just a coventry or amazon focused issue. this is about the spread of industrial action from the public sector to the private
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sector. talk to us about that. lizzy: indeed, because it shows the discontent has spread from public to private. you have already seen the chaos across transport, health care, the civil service, teaching, but this is in the private sector too, and what is significant about that is it gives new meanings to the wage price spiral. you have already seen wage growth at the fastest outside of record since november. amazon, unlike the national health service, could raise prices to cover a higher wage bill if it were to given to these demands. and that could add to the persistently high inflation we are already seeing in the u.k., the very thing that these workers want to fend off to help themselves deal with. tom: lizzy burden on the ground in coventry for us at the amazon warehouse. thank you. let's check in on a major story for us and we have the response now from adani group and their
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cfo pushing back on allegations from hindenburg research, taking a short position on these company of claims of fraud. the cfo says they stick to the highest standards of corporate governance and that adani has already -- always been in compliance with the laws. this is a conglomerate with multiple business entities. some of that pressure has ended on the back of that cfo statement. the founder is asia's richest man. across the european markets, you are seeing losses of 0.10%. the future state side pointing lower. stay with us. "surveillance: early edition" is up next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> this is bloomberg surveillance, early addition with francine lacqua.


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