tv Bloomberg Markets Asia Bloomberg January 26, 2023 9:00pm-11:00pm EST
markets. david: let's get to the top stories today, stocks across the region in advance for a fifth week of gains, investors turning a blind eye to mixed economic data out of the united states. pressure is piling up on the bank of japan as inflation comes in hot and the imf calling for better risk management. center bank of indonesia come -- signaling and into its hiking cycle, we are exclusively from the governor later on. rishaad: that data from tokyo, is all about ships. not just from intel, but also chip curbs on china, adani set
to come out fighting against claims of fraudulent behavior. markets right now, we have a bit of a mixed bag. the volume is really, really huge. david: it was up, to your point there. the chip story nudging it off the highs of the day. .3% to the downside. indy one market we will be looking at closely after the holiday yesterday. in terms of the bond markets, yields are generally on the way up. the aussie dollar continues to lead a lot of the change in the space higher. let's go to the top story, sources are telling bloomberg that the japanese and dutch are set to join the u.s. here in these curbs, to charter -- to
curb china's access to components. some of the chipmakers now substantially lower, and it dovetails as far as earnings are concerned. their guidance has far set is concerned is gloomy. intraday little higher. rishaad: intel, 10% down after hours. looking at one of the most gloomy quarterly forecasts in its history. the ceo there trying to reassure everybody, saying i'd like to remind everyone that we are on a multiyear journey. one other place that has been on a multi-year journey to get
inflation up is in japan. inflation tokyo continuing to outpace expectations, rising to 4% in january. people getting in on the back of that, that's what cpi is doing at the moment in regard to tokyo itself. consumer prices up in the quarter. that's not the only data point we are looking at. the u.s. is certainly in focus. david: it's a fairly important economy with a fairly important central bank that's basing its decisions on the data coming out of that economy. less convincing when you look at the drivers. kathleen hays is here to unpack the story for us. where these latest? ? numbers leave the fed kathleen:
i think it leaves him scratching their head as it has a lot to do with timing. that gdp number of 2.9% beating the forecast for the fourth quarter number, down a bit from 3.2% in the third quarter. the second half of the year at 3% gdp growth, one thing you have here as well is these internal parts. there is your 2.9% gain, it looks pretty good. also you look at consumer spending, it was up 2.1%, and that is a number that is a deceleration. if you look at real final sales, then you find it even weaker. slicing and dicing in different ways, the consumer was not strong in the fourth quarter outside of service pretty much. another thing we have to look at , look at inventories.
inventories accounted for about half of the gain in gdp. partly what is wrong is frequently inventories rise when producers, wholesalers and retailers think they're looking down the road three or six months, they are expecting strong consumer demand and it doesn't materialize. and then their inventory builds up. when they build up, you have to let them wear down. on a micro level, that's what is happening with intel right now. if you have a question mark for the fed, inside doesn't look so good, is this enough to downshift to 25 basis points? a bloomberg opinion, and nash, says you have to give up now, you have to keep going. a strong voice, many have made it clear they are going to offer 25. i don't think this gdp report is
going to change either decision but it is an important piece of information. rishaad: all that thought, i'm going to look at what bill ackman from pershing is saying. this is off the back of what we've been hearing from hindenburg research, suggesting that been siphoning funds and manipulating the stock. we are expecting a response from the adani group as they come out and defend themselves from that report. so that is adani and bill ackman's view. let's have a look at what else is happening out there with the global economy. david has something here. david: the way those headlines are dropping might need some clarification. but this is is, on bill ackman's
account, there are two tweets up. one is what is coming in after, which is a bit confusing. adani's response to the research, he's comparing it to what they went through with herbalife. it's the same as that response to ackman's original pre-hundred 50 page presentation. he says her life remains a pyramid scheme, and bill ackman found hindenburg report highly credible and extremely well researched, and that the response spoke volumes. to clarify his point there, and attempting to step back, he is clarifying they don't have skin in the game here. we are not invested long or short in any of the adani companies or herbalife, nor have we done independent research. you should not consider this investment advice, just his judgment based on the report and also their response.
rishaad: that is the tweet itself that we can read here, caveat emptor, buyer beware at the end of all that. in terms of the boj and what it is likely to do with its 10-year yield curve control, they want it to be more flexible. what is the deal here exactly, kathleen? kathleen: bill ackman wants to get involved in what is going on with adani, and the imf is concerned about what japan is doing and wants to hop in and say here's what you need to do. the bond market isn't functioning well, you've got strong cpi numbers and is well above 2%. i think this is very significant, they are telling them they need to either increase the 10-year yield target, widen the 10 year jgb
band which is 0.5 on either side of zero, shorten the yield curve target, i heard that mentioned a lot while i was in tokyo. start targeting the five year for example. that was start shifting the balance as well. or pivot back to a quantity target for bond purchases. in other words, do quantitative easing or tightening and move away from yield curve control. the bank of japan, people are betting they will have to let this ban widen and move away from this .5 ceiling for the 10 year jgb. the new person will take over april 26, into the month. but they are not convinced this inflation increases going to be sustainable.
the think it may be too early to start reducing stimulus. so they may not make any change yet. i think it's very significant that the imf has gone out of its way, apparently suggesting doing something with the 10 year and shortening the duration of the target. the whole world is kind of waiting to see what happens and if the new governor does take these kind of steps. rishaad: it is unusual for the imf to come out and signal -- single out japan. it has not happen for a while at least. the 10-year yielding .48%. that's a look at one reaction. simon flynt is with us. first of all, let's get your reaction, the market reaction to
the fed here essentially and how they look at those gdp numbers. simon: i read them a slightly dovish overall, as kathleen pointed out, the consumption numbers were weaker than expected and a lot of the growth was driven by inventories. so i think that cements the probability of 25 basis points. i think 50 basis points is extremely unlikely. david: that almost creates a perfect storm in a positive sense, when melenchon opens up next week because hong kong has already played a lot of catch-up. if you get the fed to play ball, this market is going to punch through the ceiling, won't it? simon: a kind of agree. i guess what makes me nervous, a couple of things. first of all, the federal reserve is probably unhappy with
how much financial conditions have loosened. those conditions have loosened by more than 1% since october. probably are concerned there is still a little bit too much stimulus in the economy, so they will try to emphasize that rates should be higher for longer. whether they are successful or not is open to question. the second thing that worries me is whether there is fresh news on china. we've had these wonderful stories about travel frenzies, but i'm not really sure what drives the market next. of course we had this incrementally bad news about the semiconductor bands. rishaad: simon giving his take on the china reopening coming up. also let's look at our first headlines, signaling the current round of tightening is coming to an end. the bank of indonesia hiking
since august, speaking exclusively to bloomberg, the governor said this was sufficient and he now sees the lower peak fed rate than predicted earlier. >> some say will go to 6%. but now our assumption will be 5.25%. this is more certain now compared to last year. rishaad: companies linked to the indian billionaire plan to issue a detailed response friday to a short-sellers report, adani executives named it as bogus and
devoid of facts. adani the group has not yet addressed any substantial issue they themselves have race. the chinese company accused of helping mercenaries in ukraine, the treasury department says they provided satellite imagery to the military. the biden administration has grown increasingly concerned about the role china is playing in the conflict. bankruptcy court documents show some connection to the exchange. deutsche bank's and hsbc are on the list. they do not reveal details such as the size of any debts or other exposure. that's a look at the first word headlines. david: speaking of goldman sachs, in a different light, coming up, energy research, talking about their thoughts on
>> back then come some other view of 6%. now our assumption for the foreseeable future will be peak 5.25%. this is most certain now, compared to last year. rishaad: the governor of the indonesian central bank on where he sees the fed peaking. and talking about pausing themselves with regard to interest rate policies. give us a sense of whether this is something which is regionwide
as well. >> i think everyone -- everyone is it -- expecting the fed to take its rate hikes down. once they pause, i think that will give a lot of relief to the asian central banks. we are starting to see inflation numbers stabilize a little bit. they're not quite back down to where most of the central bank's comfort zone is, but generally if you put them together, with inflation coming off, that will give them a little room. rishaad: and the dollar will be lifting. >> i think foreign interest is coming back into the indonesian government bonds. we saw fairly strong demand at the recent government bond auctions. money is coming back into the
region, and indonesia with relatively high interest rate levels, effectively it's a good story for risk appetite. david: david here in hong kong. you had a few central banks last year that were forced to move because the fed was moving. to your point, if the fed is on pause, or the central banks itching to cut rates, and who will those candidates be this year? >> if you look at the global story, it is slowing. we had a surprise in malaysia, pausing earlier than expected. bank of korea another case in point. these were the final movers in the right tightening cycle. we are little cautious about this growth making a downshift, and even though global recession
calls appear to be on the rise, possibly the potential move to pause and wait and see from here, rather than trying overdo the tightening. we expect that by the time we hit the middle or second half of this year we should see a downshift, it will be a story of disinflation, meaning growth rates and inflation will taper off but we are not expecting negative inflation. it's a little bit different because in singapore it's a little bit sticky. but whether they move our don't move, there should be fairly limited impact on the interest rates because were also seeing the downshift in growth. david: one economy that seems to stand up based on some of the people we talk to is thailand,
that might be entering some sort of different cycle because of the reopening in china. would you agree? >> if you look at tourism receipts in thailand, with the return of chinese visitors, they are hopeful for a boost in growth. it's about 3% of their gdp. i think if we do see it come back in a big way, they are gearing up for the return of chinese tourists. they should catch up in the months to come. thailand was one that probably lagged last year and the year before because of the closure of borders. i think they will come back this year. i would agree that thailand would be one of the key beneficiaries of the chinese reopening. david: that's a soundbite, inc. you so much. there is plenty more ahead. this is bloomberg. ♪
rishaad: you are back with -- bloomberg markets. chinese travelers taking advantage of the freedom from covid curbs. it's in a rebound a source of travel market goes overall. here is more about where they are seeing pent-up demand. >> first of all, we only have 10 operating peninsula hotels. we focus on quality rather than quantity, and we focus on a small number. nevertheless, that is enough for us to see the trends around the world. we're in europe, paris, and also in asia. what we saw was that last year there was a very strong recovery in the u.s. and also in paris, in europe, when travel resumed. that resumption has been later in asia because the opening up
came later. in japan were seen a great resurgence since october when the restrictions were lifted. now we are seeing that in china and some recovery in demand in the closer markets, hong kong, japan, as we know there is a large pent-up demand from the chinese for travel and we are expecting to see that too. 1.i want to make is that china has become a big market domestically. you think of the u.s. or europe, you have a lot of domestic customers, not just relying on international. we are seeing that in china too. so when things open up in china we see a lot of domestic demand within china as well. rishaad: a quick look at what's happening with markets, focusing on iron ore. citigroup saying that iron ore will not wait for 30% surge, not only affecting those nonferrous
metals elsewhere. iron ore up .2%. the three-month forecast downgraded at citigroup. this is the big story emerging at the moment, as pressure continues on china. it's being seen as a powerful alliance designed to undercut beijing's ambitions to build its own chip capabilities. o(jennifer)pabilities. athe reason why golo customers have such long term success is because we focus on real foods in the right balance so you get the results you want. when i tell people how easy it was for me to lose weight on golo, they don't believe me. they don't believe i can eat real food and lose this much weight. the release supplement makes losing weight easy. release sets you up for successful weight loss because it supports your blood sugar levels between meals
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we're just moving into the last minute of trade in the morning session. live pictures of the imperial palace in tokyo. were getting more news at the direction of travel seems to be clear that japan will likely be downgrading covid essentially to flu level in about three months from now. i'm trying to search my bloomberg terminal here because we also had a line from nhk yesterday. that japan will be downgrading covid 19, the classification on may 8. there we go, as we round up the morning session, the data point which came out a few hours back, the leading indicator for nationwide numbers, 4.4%. my producers will help me out. 4.2%, 10-year gilts off, breaking off the ceiling.
we are inching closer to that level. will the change in the boj be inevitable? rishaad: we will see. the new governor taking the helm in april. let's take a look at the first word news. sources telling us japan as well as the netherlands are set to join the u.s. and limiting china's access to semiconductor machinery. were told they will be setting limits as soon as today. it will further cut beijing's ambitions to build its own domestic chip capabilities. the international monetary fund urging the boj and bank of japan to consider boosting flexibility, suggesting options to include raising the 10-year yield target using an unusually strong tone for policy advice.
the boj tweaked its yield ban in december and traders have been watching closely for signs of any further change. meanwhile the imf exploring a multiyear aid package for ukraine worth as much as $16 billion. assurance from ukraine's donors and creditors that changes are due to lending rules. ukraine saying russia has launched cruise missiles like weapons and drones. a new wave of attacks killed at least 11 people, president zelenskyy calling for donations of more advanced western weaponry. nbc news says president biden is considering a trip to europe in february two mark one year since that russian invasion. a billionaire hedge fund manager saying he found the hindenburg
report highly credible. tweeting the indian conglomerate's response speaks volumes. he followed up by tweeting that he is not advanced -- invested long or short in any adani companies. that's a look at the first word headlines. david: let's talk about indonesia, the central bank has signaled that this current round of tightening is coming to an end. speaking exclusively to bloomberg, the governor said the interest rate hike since august should be sufficient as he sees a lower peak fed rate than predicted earlier. >> our view would be going to at least 6%, but now our assumption
will be 5.25%. this is most certain now, compared to last year. 5.2% globally, lower than we forecast before, 6.2%. >> just putting it out there, saying that the philippines would grow at 5.2%. are you at peak? you say that is sufficient to bring inflation back to where you want it to be this year. >> we are driven by good
prospects, we forecast below 4%, at most 3.7%. it will be below 4%. we are forecasting about 3.3% at the end of this year. we are counting on a peak at 5.15%. under this assumption we say 225 basis points is sufficient. meaning if there is no unforeseen condition, beyond our assumption, then i think this is sufficient. of course we are seeing most of
the information already in our book. >> so if nothing changes, this is the peak far indonesia. let's talk about inflation. headline inflation expected to be at 3.5%, core inflation at 3%. one of the risk? ? to that projection some people are calling for oil to be at 110 this year. >> wire will be the oil -- where? ? will be the oil price under our assumption, oil price 89. the amount of the energy subsidy. as long as the oil price does
not skyrocket, the government certainly will not increase the full price. my understanding, the president is committed to full price stability. we will be supporting monetary policy as well as fiscal. >> you talk about probability. some say there's a 65% chance of a recession, a global recession happening. how much of that has been impacting your calculations? >> this impact will be of course -- of course there is some impact. there may be some recession in europe and the u.s..
fourth of january which was the low point so far this year. but the year is still young. let's have a look at all this as we bring in our next guest from goldman sachs. thanks for joining us. let's look at the supply and demand dynamic. on the one hand, on the demand side we've got two aspects, the possibility of inflation, and the reopening of china. i suppose that is where the battleground is. >> the market is not prepared for substantial demand growth, because supplies are growing this year. from now until the year end, one point 6 million barrels a day demand growth and oil. for contacts, the oil market is about 100 moving barrels a day demand globally.
china reopening with 1.6 million barrels per day is quite meaningful, especially when supply isn't really growing because of the underinvestment we've seen in the last few years of the oil assets. with the china reopening, opec is back with the pricing cover and they will control the supply while oil prices are peaking higher. rishaad: what is the impact of that you you and its price cap on russian oil? does it really move the dial? and all these predictions of a dire energy crisis in europe been perhaps salvage because of the mild winter thus far. >> in our conversation with investors, the focuses moving to the russian product embargo that
is coming on the fifth of february. for contacts, diesel exports from russia account for 15% of global diesel exports and 80% of that has until recently been going to the european market. in case of product, india and china are also an exporter of diesel so the redirect can be more disruptive for the energy market compared to the crude sanctions we saw back in november last year. i would like to emphasize this is also happening at a time when the global diesel inventories are already very tight. we already have a type set up for refining margins, but on top of that, on the fifth of february, product embargo could be more destructive to the product prices, not necessarily crude. david: i'm just looking at some
of calls here, attractive value in oil majors and you are singling out metro china. if you could just flesh out that thought for us. >> we just put out a piece yesterday evening on how we strategize this year. we have high conviction on $8,200 range for the print price and were also confident about the duration of this call. in that range, the chinese oil majors make about 14% of cash flow yield. we think brent will be $90 medium to longer term. we are low 70's right now. is that dries up with the underinvestment view becoming more popular, we think that will drive the equities. we also like the refining equities because of the tightness in the refining market
. david: can you talk us through lng, is that a separate line of thinking? >> the underinvestment is not just in oil, it's hydrocarbons, and lng is no different. because of the warmer december and january we've had this year, but broadly we see higher prices because we like the australian lng players. those who have rising exposure to the spot lng, that includes
the australian lng producers. rishaad: what are your forecast with price targets with regard to the wti, and lng for the course of this year. with that in mind, let's look at asian oil companies. mason the forecast around $68 a barrel on brent. >> as i said, we have a $100 view heading into the third quarter and a $90 view in the medium to long-term. at that range we have over 35% upside potential, from a gas price perspective as well, we still think the lng prices will average over $20 over the course of the next 12 months.
so these are well above the five-year averages. they have not discounted any equities that we flagged. rishaad: good stuff there, looking at the energy complex. we will be talking about the rally with chip stocks in korea and taiwan, asking if it can continue as earnings forecast become less and less downbeat. this is bloomberg. ♪ avalarahhh ahhh
>> i want to remind everyone that we are on a multiyear journey. as we navigate short-term headwinds while securing a long-term strategy. rishaad: the intel ceo there after that really downbeat, gloomy assessment as to what's happening with regards to his company, with one of the gloomiest quarterly forecasts in history. it's all down to the pc slump that is taken a toll on the chipmakers business. and the netherlands and japan getting together, poised to join the u.s. and limiting china's access to advanced semiconductor machinery. it comes against that backdrop of jay powell -- designed to
undercut beijing's ambitions on the chip side of things there as well. that's a look at what is going on with those chips. david, we've got more on what is happening with these stocks, because we have had a rally. david: and a very strong one. relatively beside tencent and alibaba, still substantial, double digits. the question is, do these names have room to run? it might be conducive to another link higher. what is it say right now on why the specific group can defy the economic downturn? >> as we can see, the intel
doesn't seem to be affecting asian chip shares. they have been doing quite well this year, outperforming the overall asian markets. the main reason is that the markets are the investment community is looking ahead for a possible bottom out in the chip cycle. sales of semiconductors have been falling since the middle of last year, many analysts are expecting the sales to bottom out sometime before june this year are perhaps much earlier, around march, april, or may. history shows that the semiconductor shares typically start to rise a few months before the actual bottom out of the chip cycle. that means it might be a good time to stop buying chip stocks,
especially given that their valuations are cheap. rishaad: the smartphone shipments, which we saw have a serious fall back in december, how does that play into that narrative, and whether that is a key risk to this positive view, and what are the other ones as well? >> i think perhaps the most important thing here is that the sales of chips are slowing down, and basically it's an inventory correction. companies have increased their production after the pandemic, and because there were such a strong demand for everything digital. but sometime last year they realized that they produced too much, so they started to round down inventory. now markets are expecting that
process to probably end soon. but the current market pricing is probably not pricing in the chances of further slowing down in the global economy. so if the global economy slows down more than expected, then the market could face another correction. but that something where nobody has an answer at the moment. david: our senior asian stocks reporter there from tokyo. there is plenty more ahead. this is bloomberg. ♪
rishaad: here we go, let's have a look at these markets, h-shares up a little but not much else here. a bit of drag here for the hong kong market. let's look at the business flash headlines, looking at what is happening out there with morgan stanley. a quick look at what the company has been doing, is finding some of its own bankers a million dollars each for conducting business on whatsapp. the funds have either been call back from previous bonuses or will be. from future pay.
as part of an investigation that saw the bank pay hundreds of moving to dollars in fines. buzzfeed shares surging by record on plans to use open ai to boost content creation. the stock rising 120%, bringing its rocket value to nearly $300 million. the ceo said ai inspired content will become part of the core business this year. it could lower costs for buzzfeed. he has seen slower sales growth in the fourth quarter. group revenue for 2022 rose 3% to a record. the ceo saying the company remains vigilant for uncertainties. looking at some of these luxury
goods companies in this part of the world, i don't see 711, but never mind. david: not quite that price point. does anyone still wear those belt bags? in some ways it's a mainland china play. a mix across the asia-pacific, some markets are still closed including mainland china. there's plenty more ahead, plus the india opening. that's going to be the big one. this is bloomberg. ♪
this is "bloomberg markets: asia." asian equities are on the out. turning a blind eye to some mixed data out of the u.s.. there joining the u.s. in limiting tech which could come as soon as friday. hindenburg research claims fraud manipulation is, bogus. this is enough the stories we have been reporting. we have tech stocks helping things along, except for the chip side of things. soft gaining a bit of traction and rally.
there is now a fifth weekly advance. we have the stories dominating intel stock. after our are down about 10%. this was after one of the gloomiest forecast prepared japan and the netherlands are getting together to look at china's actions to improve machinery. a look at what is going on on the chip side of things. looking at that mix economic data, u.s. economy fourth-quarter. on the one hand, the better than forecast. if you look at other headlines, much less convincing.
global economics and policy editor kathleen hays joined us. kathleen: they are looking at the latest numbers well above the 2.1% forecast. a little less than the 3.2% forecast analyzed in the previous quarter. 3% growth does not sound like much of a slowdown. what you do see when you start to look under the hood, those are the blue numbers for personal consumption. that is how much people bought. that number is down to 2.1%. anything in final sales is only 2.8%. consumer spending was just not that strong. this is so important in gdp.
one of the big components is inventory. how much inventory builds up. if it is strong consumer, there is a lot of inventory because they have to keep up. if things are slowing down and you build up too many inventories in the third quarter or the course of the year, they filled up and you have to stop manufacturing as much or putting as much on yourselves. that magnifies any kind of slowdown underway. that is likable say it looks like the economy is cooling and it looks like recession is still a risk. there is no doubt about that. when marvin, jobless fell unexpectedly. the labor market is looking tighter than ever. things are pulling both ways. i think that is still bigger on a 25 basis point hike because
they want to wait helping look. even though they are believed to do 50, do not sop too soon. rishaad: one subject to another, imf, it is rare for them to be critical. just adding their voice to the chorus adding -- asking for some kind of change in the 10 year gdp. kathleen: they are used to the international monetary fund telling countries what to do. japan is still the third largest economy in the world. it is anything but a developing country. it is a leading force in economic power in the world. for them to tell the bank of japan that they have to get more
flexibility, that would help avoid abrupt changes later. we know that the last meeting, it did not do that in january. this is creating a lot of uncertainty as time when inflation has gone up again. the think here is that there is one more meeting in the second turn and's april 8. they need to either increase the 10 year yield target or widen the band. shorten the yield curve target, target five-year bonds instead of tenure or pivot back to a
quantitative tightening being reset a limit for purchases. this goes to show how concerned many investors are that this is untenable now and the banking trend is about to change. we know there will be a meeting at the end of april. rishaad: thank you so much, kathleen hays. taking a look at the whole china reopened story. gaining traction in hong kong and mainland china, market reaction is there. jeanny yu joins us. what are we seeing with hong kong? jeanny: yesterday we saw a lot of optimism in the market. it resumes in the first day. we have seen a very strong rally.
they have seen the index fluctuating a little bit. one reason is that we have seen a negative reaction to the yen. on the other hand, it seems like the index has rallied they are putting that into biased territory. they are already showing that markets have a lot of hope for the rally and earnings recovery of those companies. rishaad: what about china itself? jeanny: for the china/asia reopened next week, i think people are still looking for tourism, there is a slew of data
pointed to a sharper than expected recovery, including in the box office. also, we have seen news about tauris from china. for the opening of the asian market, we are still seeing a promising start. rishaad: thank you. jeanny yu. the 2023 tourist arrivals should count about 27.5 million people. that will be towards the china reopened. let's get over to new york with first word news. >> as you have been talking about the netherlands are said
to join u.s. to advance semi conductor machinery. dutch and japanese officials were set limits soon as friday period the joint effort will be further undercutting beijing's effort. russia has lost new missiles and a new wave of attacks that has killed at least 11 people. with president zelenskyy calling for donations, nbc news says biden is considering a trip to yuan in february. billionaire hedge had founder says he found a report alleging fraud. they tweeted that the indian conglomerate speaks volumes. he thought of tweeting that they have now invested in any
companies. he is said to be preparing a flurry of response after a broad denial of their claims. advisors say the collapse crypto firm has a long list of creditors. document show thousands of editors with thousands of exchange. this governor does not reveal details. global news, 24 hours a day, on-air and at bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2,700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. rishaad: thank you. just getting more out of the ministry of finance. seeing that headline cpi for 2023 will be 2.8%. core cpi at 2.3%. this is in line with what going on with tourism.
cpi at the moment, the headline is 5.9% for the country. they are suggesting that growth will be the same as they forecast and that will be at the rate of expansion. they had seen that at 3.4%. a little bit of a downshift. that surplus is down to the tourism. they are also looking at the currency as well. one of the best performers at the moment. an average of about 50. 68 at the moment. so to come. india equity strategies about
rishaad: we have a look at the bank of india governor preparing to select nominees for his potential successor. speaking exclusively with us, they will also expand the central bank's mandate for what they are already doing. >> we are thankful. >> some are saying that this will have you and monthly profit, is there any truth in that? >> with this monetary policy -- [indiscernible] >> your time and's midyear --
your time ends midyear, are you open to reappointment? >> [indiscernible] whoever they are confident of -- [indiscernible] >> you are 64 years young, close to retirement age. may age be an issue? >> we do not think the age matters. it is experience. i have gifted a lot of knowledge for the central bank.
including also the past three years. monitoring my job and saving the country from crisis. we will be looking forward also to save the country. >> what will be your priorities in the coming month. [indiscernible] the thing we are talking about, how do we best support the economy to provide financing
governor. we will get now back to the market action and have a look at havard chi. you are bullish on asian stocks, why? havard: happy new year to you from sunny singapore. there is clear science that inflation is behind us. going forward it will probably slow down to 3%, 55% -- 3%, 5% in the new year. prices will probably reflect that even further.
most of this will materialize this year. this will help start reducing rate in the second half. this will have a positive impact on asian equities. rishaad: very little time. you are out there trying to find bargains, how do you find one? havard: we realize that singapore is a hot currency. the central bank likes to appreciate the currency in order to mitigate inflation. most of the companies are very cash flow generated.
this is when rates are around 2%-2% level. that is because we really like the structure of the demand. also because of the structure of the economists in this region. rishaad: onto get to some of the other items we have in terms of industry. looking at potential growth. havard: coincidentally -- [indiscernible] there was a pretty attractive price.
it was nearest the highest price in the last five years. there was pretty poor management. basically, the group is also the manager in singapore as well. rishaad: very quickly. where do you focus on generally win in your activist mode? havard: i have a macro top-down approach. basically there will be a pretty big tug-of-war and the fed will be crying at every opportunity in the fight against inflation.
they are trying to bring expectations down. we like companies with revenue and profitability. hopefully lower cash on the balance sheet. [indiscernible] rishaad: harvard, thank you. we have a lot more on the way. you are with bloomberg. ♪ ♪ and start crunching a year's worth of transactions against thousands of compliance controls with the help of ai. now you're making smarter decisions faster. operating costs are lower. and everyone
opened and we have china not in the mix at the moment. they are still having their lunar new year break. looking at what is going on with the asia-pacific index is heading towards levels we have not seen it since march of last year. we also have material and tech responsible for the game. up next, will be digging deeper into japan and the never lens. as a business owner, your bottom line is always top of mind. so start saving by switching to the mobile service designed for small business: comcast business mobile. flexible data plans mean you can get unlimited data or pay by the gig. all on the most reliable 5g network. with no line activation fees or term contracts. saving you up to 60% a year. and it's only available to comcast business
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marking the lunchtime break. they are still in the middle of their holiday which means there is no trading right now. tech is mostly was helping to drive the advance. taking a look briefly at some of those constituents which are not doing as well in terms of the sector. 36 stocks are up, 32 on the way down, eight are unchanged. tencent and -- are looked to pace the advance. we are back in two fray as of now. it was marginally up. a bit more definitive around 1/10 of 1%.
a lot of moving parts today. one of them is one we have been reporting on. a holiday free of strict covid curbs. a rebound in the travel market this year. we have more on why they are seeing pent-up demand. >> we only have 10 operating peninsula hotels. they are all in gateway cities around the world. we are focused on quality instead of quantity. that is enough of the trends around the world. we are in europe, paris and asia. what we sought last year was a very strong recovery in the u.s. and europe when travel resumed. that has been later in asia. we have seen in japan, a great
resurgence since october when the restrictions were lifted. we have seen that in china and we are already seeing some cover in demand and the closer markets. there is of course, a very large pent-up demand in the long haul as well. there is 1.i want to make. -- there is one point that i want to make. we will see that in china as well. when things open up in china, we see a lot of domestic -- as well. rishaad: shanghai hotels ceo there. a check out the first word news as we head to new york. >> july central bank has their rate unchanged at the highest level in more than two decades.
11.25% as a country waits for more signs. initial effects with aggressive tightening cycles. sources tell bloomberg, military find is exploring a multiyear aid package for ukraine where there is much as $16 billion. insurance from ukraine to donors and creditors hope the three-for your package could provide a catalyst for more funding. washington has sanctions on a chinese firm accused of helping a group -- ukraine appeared they provided satellite imagery. the biden administration increasingly concerned about the role chinese companies are playing in the conflict. global news, 24 hours a day, on-air and at bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2,700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg.
rishaad: thank you for that. the netherlands are poised to join the united states with their semi conductor material. we have a deal here in the offing that would create a powerful alliance to undercut beijing's actions. let's get to hong kong. what do we know the's far? -- thus far? they have been kicking and screaming at the table. >> this is an excerpt from my colleague. it has been a long-standing discussion here. the u.s. has been trying to invoke support from japan and the netherlands to support u.s. restrictions on their chip exports.
it is critical for the u.s. to engage in a multilateral response. they need the netherlands and japan to buy and. without their support, china could find ways to circumvent and boost their domestic chip production. we know that discussions between the netherlands, japan and the u.s. have been going on. we are expecting those negotiations to finish concluding sometime friday. although, we are not expecting some public statement. we do have some details on the netherlands part. this could involve white restrictions with the equipment that is critical for china creating and making their own advanced chips.
china is expected to invoke similar restrictions. rishaad: this also begs the question to what china is responding with. >> it is worth noting that beijing's response so far to all of these restrictions including a lot of the chatter -- chatter has been relatively muted. we have not seen much of a strong response. they are saying that the u.s. needs to rethink the approach to economic and trade policy but really, not the sort of ballistic response. on the other of covid zero was a new economic team in place. we are in this period were we
are expecting a transition of new leaders. we may see further concrete policies emerge. the other thing is that we have some very high-profile visitors. antony blinken is expected to come over very shortly. rishaad: thank you. our asia government and politics advisor. looking forward to india's budget. they are asking where constraints remain. this is amidst the final plan for next year's elections. this is bloomberg. ♪
group plans to detail response later today. they are labeling it as being bogus. this is due to a conference call of the hindenburg research level. extraordinary allegations about this conglomerate. the group is said to come out with a reply to all that. weighing in all this, ackman policy accusations credible. where are we with this right now ? >> it is interesting. yesterday, they held a conference call with their investors.
they have come out with an 18 page report saying that they have denied almost all allegations. . interestingly, hindenburg stood by their report. this has lent excellent solidarity to the hindenburg report. the report was submitted to the investors. they are saying that the allegations and companies have renewed interest. they are denying these facts and clearly saying that the company has been audited and are standing -- [indiscernible]
rishaad: hindenburg is seeking by the report, they have also hit back to these claims to what hindenburg is saying that it is bogus. >> they are saying that they have seen it all and they will explore options to take legal recourse against in bloomberg. hindenburg is saying that it has created a lot of shell companies which has led to tax theft and corruption. they believe it is time when
they capital market -- [indiscernible] rishaad: a lot of people are pointing to the close ties between -- that is something not going away. as you just alluded to it, the timing is very important. >> yes. this is one of the largest offers. they are drowning from the heavyweight and securities. and the life insurance policy. it is very interesting.
they have clearly said that there is no lineage. his compliments go national. that is what he is hinting at with his statements. rishaad: when you look at this. if any of these allegations proved to be true, it could do a lot of damage to investors looking at india brought as the next best thing, which they have been as of late. >> that is true. [indiscernible] they have also flagged -- [indiscernible]
that has been accounted for in another 15 page report. there is a lot of damage in case it has been proved right. that will prove some sentiments for the company. this shows how hindenburg is preparing for their cents. rishaad: thank you for joining us. let's also take a look at what is happening a bit later at the start of february. this is also sticking to the fiscal path. let's find out how that plan will impact markets. we are meeting with neelkanth mishra from credit suisse securities. what are you looking at in the
market? any particular surprise you foresee? it would not be a surprise then. [laughter] neelkanth: the elements of the budget for equity markets have fallen meaningfully over the last several years. several large policy announcements that have been during the budget. the budget is now turning out to be exactly what is is meant to be. it is of much stronger relevance to the bond market and is the equity market. on a broader perspective, i think the expectation is a continued process of fiscal consumption.
the assumptions made in terms of gdp growth and some of the critical expenditures, it would add to the credibility of the numbers that the government proposes. rishaad: do you expect it to be one that would be a populist event given the general election in 2024? >> --neelkanth: this approach has been a lot less populist than prior governments. the expectation is not that there would be too many of these . several of the announcements that have already been made,
like monitoring the free reign scheme with the national security act, there is also possibly an increase in the cash payout scheme. the last love -- the last was five years back. there is not too much physical space for the government. more importantly, any of the new schemes that are launched, for them to become relevant for the economy needs to be at least a trillion or more in terms of size. it is very hard for a new policy to scale up that fast. the likelihood of substantial
policies is law -- is low. this may be seen as friendly but from a broader macro perspective, i do not expect it to do that. rishaad: i want to look at a sense of how much reputational damage it could do for other companies that want to take out dollar loans. neelkanth: the dollar loan market has been frozen for the past year. 21.4 billion dollars of loans in 2021.
$6.5 billion were in january of last year. in the past 12 months, there has been -- given that the rates are high in the u.s. are not that attractive , dollar loans were cheaper. companies are choosing to repay the loans. this is one of their concerns and the closure would be of a concern. rishaad: as an equity strategists, what is the hit if
these allegations are true of the overall corporate governance surrounding the benchmark indices in india? neelkanth: the allegations are best conquered by the companies themselves. it consists of really high-quality banks, consumer companies -- i think the risk to the benchmark is not meaningful. the larger index is untouched. as regards to allegations, it is
the best place to come for them. rishaad: thank you very much. neelkanth mishra from credit suisse. looking at adani. two days of losses. 20% to the downside. 4.2% to the downside since this report. . also losing ground here are some of the other groups. we wait for the response to these allegations. stockman inflation and fraud. this is bloomberg. ♪
a beating of late trade after a dire forecast. intel expecting maximum cells of $11.5 billion, far below their estimate. the company expects big cuts in customer inventory this quarter. >> i want to remind everyone that we remain focused on short-term headwinds while executing the long-term strategy. rishaad: this is kicking off trading at 9:30 in the morning. 12:30 in hong kong. the time in iraqi at the moment is 11:00 or 8:55.
much-needed loans are in flux. $6.5 billion imf lending stalled with a debt default perhaps on the cards. let's move now to some of the other companies making headlines. lg display co., touchy moto -- fuji electric and tata motors as well. this is after the chip crunch eased some of the pain for the carmaker. markets are a mixed bag. hong kong is positive. "bloomberg daybreak: middle east " is next. ♪
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