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tv   Bloomberg Markets European Open  Bloomberg  January 27, 2023 3:00am-4:00am EST

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data and a gloomy intel forecast. reports from japan and the netherlands joining the u.s. in limiting chinese access to chips. touting the potential of broad amid rising criticism. u.k. chancellor jeremy hunt will lay out his plans to boost the british economy in a speech here at bloomberg's european headquarters and he joins us for an interview later. and the fallout continues. adami extend their route as investors react while the indian conglomerate looks into legal action. let's check in on these markets. another very solid day stateside. looking past the mixed data when it comes to the health of the u.s. economy. gdp coming in better than many had forecast but under the hood the consumer looking a little
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fragile. it was a drive coming through from tesla, 11% gains from that stock in the last few sessions. 11% gain yesterday and 50% in the last month powering the optimism. in terms of the markets, in the first few seconds, gains in italy of 1.3%. waiting for more to come through. we will talk about the pound because the chancellor will be here in our european headquarters touting the so far in elusive benefits of brexit. we will see how he plans to build out this beleaguered u.k. academy -- u.k. economy. adani indian shares were closed. the markets were closed yesterday. coming back the losses continued. the can, is a main listing down 14 percent.
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a 45 billion dollar route across the businesses. the company has come out disputing the claims by hindenburg research. the impact not just for the world's most wealthy man but also the indian economy. the run-up we have seen in the tech heavy index in the last few sessions. the bench -- the benchmark 10 year. the yen strengthening. you are seeing gains around 2/10 of 1% on the back of inflation numbers out of tokyo underscoring the pressure on the boj to address the yield curve control policy. you are looking at the recent treasury auctions in january they were one of the best months ever for auction demand. why are treasuries so hot? >> they are so hot at the moment. every auction this month in the
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u.s. treasury market printed below market yields meaning there was record demand high debt. we broke all records. to me it is all a reflection that the market and investors out there believe the yields will not be around for much longer and they are keen to grab them while they can. other things going on in the market. we know january has been a record month for bond issuance and there has been strong demand behind it going across em credit, credit in the u.s., sovereign bond issuance in europe. there has also been some chunky futures trades that have posted on the market. i want to take you through one. one is quite a decent bet that the fed funds rate will get to 2.5% by year end. that is around 200 basis cuts of points through december. there are some decent trades thinking the fed will pause in march meaning next week's hike would be the last.
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and the yield curve will steepen and steepen quickly. we know the yield curve has inverted, two-year yields have risen sharply due to all of the fed hikes but as a market looks ahead to the cuts coming, the yield curve could move steeper and there has been some decent positioning for that kind of trade. >> our markets reporter on the demand for u.s. treasuries that we have seen in the last week. we get a little more clarity on the trajectory for the european economy. spain coming out with pre-lim fourth-quarter gdp rising zero point 2% above the estimates. on a year on a year on year basis, you're looking at fourth-quarter gdp rising 2.7% year on year. pretty decently above the estimates of 2.2%. not a lot of movement for the euro. let's switch focus to the u.s. economy eating expectations in the last quarter of 2022 and
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slowing slightly but still expanding at a pretty healthy clip at 2.9 percent. the slow down is exactly what the fed wants to see added attempts -- as it attempts to tame inflation. joining us is an eco-group debt. we are looking at a goldilocks scenario. does this underscore those positioning for a soft landing? aneeka: it seems to give credence to the view that perhaps we are heading to a soft landing but at the same time there is mixed signal in the economic data and a lot of questions. will the fed -- where is it on its tightening cycle? will we see cuts or will they just keep interest rates at a high level and weaken the economy? the soft landing thesis is getting a boost but there are
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plenty of investors out there that say stay cautious on risk. >> the soft landing thesis getting a bit of a boost. a mixed picture. hard to get a clear trajectory because u.s. jobless claims unexpectedly coming in lower. strength for the labor market. the consumer is starting to soften. topline gdp, pretty decent. the consumer is looking a little fragile. >> and you look at the intel reports today, a grim forecast. shares selling off. the earnings picture is still looking a bit weak but that is what people expected so you're not seeing a lot of movement from that. at least investors we talk to, the one thing i have been surprised with is even if we are in the soft landing scenario you're not seeing investors say, it is time to buy and i am bullish. everyone is still quite skeptical about how it will play out. >> the jp morgan survey --
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when it comes to the earnings picture, tech rallying and seemingly looking past the travails of intel but there is a question about pc demand. is that an idiosyncratic story for intel as they try desperately to restructure the business. or is there a broader read across protect? >> -- or is there a broader read across for tech? >> everyone expected the softening and perhaps it has been priced into the big losses we sought the end of last year and now you're seeing things come back and the narrative -- we knew it was bad but it is not as bad as we thought it was going to be is starting to filter through. >> let's bring in an eco-group aneeka gupta, director at wisdomtree. do you have more clarity?
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you have a greater clip on their trajectory for the offset economy? are you more reassured? aneeka: based on the recent macroeconomic data that we have been getting, the picture is getting a lot more clear. we are seeing inflation beginning the. we are seeing growth beginning to cool. that opens at the scenario of a softer landing. that moves in favor of the feds next decision of increasing rates by just 25 basis points. and i think that is on the back of the labor market still remaining fairly resilient so i think the 25 basis point rate hike and moving across we are seeing a softer landing is how we positioned the u.s. moving around for 2023. >> you are in the soft landing camp.
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if they pause after february, how do you position around that? aneeka: it is a tricky situation because -- obviously, domestically we are seeing a bit of cooling taking place but let us not forget that inflation from headline inflation which emanates from the energy side remains uncertain. we do see chances of energy prices moving much higher. that could continue to cause a risk for headline inflation numbers. i think the bond markets are clearly out pricing cuts going forward. based on the resilience in the u.s. economy i think we may end up doing what the bank of canada has just done which is holding rates where they are. after the 25 basis point rate hike and see how the economy pressed --progresses along. >> do you want to fade the rally? a perfect -- and percents over
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performance -- an 8% over performance. aneeka: where we see the strength is in the underperformance of 2022. luxury goods, semiconductors, retail, these are the sectors doing well. and add that to the small caps sector. it is the sectors that underperformed in 2020 two that are outperforming now. it does not make a lot of sense because if you look at it, what is very important for europe is the reopening of china, that is more beneficial for europe but if you look at it from a remedy perspective, you have twice the amount of revenue from the us -- from the u.s. for the u.s. to have a soft landing or avoid the recession is more important to europe then
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the reopening of china. what you are seeing in this current rally of stocks is semiconductor stocks that have the maximum exposure of more than 20% to the chinese economy. very little exposure to the chinese economy. both are rallying north of 20%. there is a mismatch and that needs to correct. this week i think we will see a lot more risk -- a lot more restrictive policy coming in, the ecb going ahead with its rate hikes. and after we see a bit of cooling of the cyclical versus defensive rally is when we will start to see the true correct upward momentum take place for european equities. >> maybe the dust settles after those important decisions of next week. looking back in terms of a guide for the rest of this year particularly when it comes to energy and the eps growth accounting for about two thirds of the eps growth, does that
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outsized role of energy continue to play out towards the end of this year given your deep expertise on energy? aneeka: i do believe it is an important cash cow within the eps. investors continue to rely on the energy sector because over the course of 2022 we have seen sharp rate hikes and the energy sector has benefited investors with their better -- with their generous shareholder returns. they have discipline. they are the only sector dominating positive earnings growth. eventually i think you will see investors continue to lean against the energy sector. we did see a bit of a mismatch towards the end of the year when energy stocks outpaced energy prices. they were in for a correction which we have seen play out. but you need to keep in mind that 2023 is not about the
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multiple corrections. we have seen valuations adjust in 2022. 2023 will be about earnings contraction. you will see more of that within the cyclical sectors. that is a point to bear in mind. >> more resilience. let's get lynn thomasson's thoughts. what will you be looking at as we look at the importance around resilience if we were -- if we are facing an earnings recession? >> the interesting thing to us is job cuts. one interesting thing is a lot of companies have been cutting jobs but investors are not reacting negatively to that. in a lot of cases they are buying those companies with a bet that it is a sign of resilience and companies are tightening their belts to weather the storm coming. >> thank you as ever to get some
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of these key things across the market. and the director of research at wisdomtree. have a great weekend. coming up, intel has given one of its gloomiest quarterly outlooks in its history. the ceo says the chipmaker remains steadfast for the long haul. we have the earnings breakdown next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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tom: welcome back. intel shares plunged in -- ms sales range. the chip giant also gave one of the gloomiest quarterly forecasts in its history. we have been digging through the numbers. what is causing the drag at intel? >> computers, personal computers. we saw a lot of spending during the lockdowns as some people had more disposable income and some of that money was spent on electronics. now as personal finances have more squeeze, not as much is spent on that. tom: it should not come as a huge surprise to investors. that there would be a drag that
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plays out. >> i think the scope of the decline has been the sharp. in the current quarter, the market has been expecting $14 billion in revenue and intel is forecasting between $10.5 billion. that is pretty painful for a company that was famous for its really juicy profit margins on the order of 50%. it is a bit of a shock. tom: the other big story that bloomberg has been reporting on heavily as the decision that is expected to come through today that the netherlands and tokyo in the u.s. in terms of further restrictions. how significance is this? >> it is hard to overstate how significant this is. a massive deal. tensions between the u.s. and china -- so much of it comes down to chips.
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u.s. has restricted the ability of china to buy chips. they are restricting china's ability to buy the equipment to make chips. one company in particular, a company in the netherlands. they can etch circuit patterns. that makes the cutting edge chips that china wants to become technologically self-sufficient. if you are going to do cutting-edge stuff in ai, you need this. >> interesting to hear previously from asml ceo, saying eventually china will have to start to build their own and there is a big gap but that is a pushback. >> easier said than done.
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it is not just a case of -- we will just build our own machines but you also need the components to go into those machines. and the expertise is difficult. >> alex webb, thank you from bloomberg quicktake. coming up, the uk's chancellor exchequer is scheduled to outline plans. this is bloomberg. ♪
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tom: welcome back. the uk's chancellor exchequer here may hunt is expected to tackle sluggish growth in the speech later today. let's get more from bloomberg opinions, therese rafael. what is the chancellor expected to say in the address? >> he is expected to say that confidence in the future starts with honesty. i think we are going to see him try to do two things. manage expectations about the economy. he is going to have to be very frank about the challenges facing the government. he will also need to reassure people that the government has a plan for growth and a plan to tackle, -- problems like
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productivity. tom: does that plan include tax cuts? >> i think we will have to wait a while for tax cuts and that will be to the immense disappointment to a wing of the party that believes it is the only way to restore growth. they will point out that the share of taxes paid by 10%, 5%, and 1% of taxpayers has gone up over the years and this is a mobile part of the population. people vote with their feet. i think he wants to lower taxes but he cannot do that under current set -- under current circumstances. productivity rates have declined. we have fewer people in the workforce for various reasons, health issues, others have taken early retirement. it is a big problem for the government. there has been increased immigration. we have lost a lot of eu
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citizens. there are a lot of barriers in the economy. while the rest session -- if there is one, shallower than many -- while the rest sessio=, ecession, if there is one, would be shallower than many expected. [indiscernible] which is what many tories are calling for now. tom: therese rafael, thank you for the preview of the speech which will take place around nine -- 9:20 a.m. here at the bloomberg european headquarters. anna edwards will be talking to him around 10:30 a.m. something to stay tuned for. profit taking particularly after the runoff we saw yesterday on
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wall street. futures in the u.s. pointing better by four tencent 1%. >> lvmh reporting's slow growth. despite that europe's most valuable company still reported sales growth at its key fashion and leather goods that beat estimates. ftx advisors say the collapsed crypto fund owes a long list of creditors including goldman sachs, j.p. morgan and wells fargo. bankruptcy documents shows thousands of entries with some kind of connection to the exchange. deutsche bank and others are also on the list. the disclosure does not reveal details such as the sign of it -- size of any exposure. bed, bath & beyond has edged closer to bankruptcy filing after saying it received a default notice from jp morgan and does not have enough funds to make payments. a regulatory filing reveals creditors are demanding an
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immediate repayment after the company breached the terms of a credit line. it listed around $2.1 billion of obligations as of november. it is the boot -- that is the bloomberg business flash. tom: intel shares plunge in trade after reporting a miss on sales and a grim short-term outlook. we did touch on that story and we will be getting more. across the markets, stunning pressure across bonds, treasuries, yields up close to four basis points. a similar picture in the u.k. gilts. futures lower in the u.s. stay with us. this is bloomberg. ♪
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tom: welcome back to the open. already minutes into the european trading day. top stories. markets -- mixed u.s. data.
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and reports of japan on the geopolitics and the netherlands joining the u.s. in limiting china's access to chips tempering some of the decline. amid rising criticism, the u.k. chancellor will lay out his plans to boost the british economy in a speech here at bloomberg's european headquarters and will join us for an interview later. and the fallout continues. adani shares extend their route as investors react to the report from hendon berg research the indian conglomerate looks into legal action almost $45 billion has been razed in less than two sessions. 30 minutes into the trading day. profit taking around the edges. you are range bound across the european benchmark it. a solid session driven by technology. tesla up 11%. the optimism within tech overlooking a grim forecast when
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it comes to intel it also the mixed picture when it comes to u.s. data. the ftse 100 up to basis points. energy playing a role. energy gaining, 6/10 of a percent. pretty muted. about half of the sectors in the red so far this morning. retail leading but currently down 1%. part of that will be the earnings story as well. some sectors point to a brighter outlook. let's check in on some of the individual corporate stories as we talk about earnings but also some dealmaking. certainly investment around the supermarket grocery space. sainsbury, this is a business that has seen a bit of an injection from a family-run conglomerate of retailers in the ok -- in the u.k. they say they are open to adding
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garnering five-point part percent on the back of that. h&m, disappointing earnings as well. that is a drag on that business. restructuring and taking a hit from having to pullout of russia and belarusian -- belarus. particularly out of china when you have surging covert and still restrictions in place. pointing to a brighter outlook as chinese consumers come back onto him -- come back online. intel shares plunge to impose market-rate after a forecast surprised loss and missed sales range estimates. the chip giant gave one of the gloomiest quarterly forecast in its history. joining us is ray wang, rentable analyst of constellation research. i want to get into the tesla story but let's start with
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intel. is this a singular intel story or is it a broader concern for the tech sector? pc demand is falling but surely that will come back. reinbacher it will come back. --ray: almost every company has been hoarding chips and they have not had a good supply chain forecast in terms of understanding demand and it is not just intel. a lot of people held onto a lot of chips for way too long. tom: part of the concern is the cost put into this restructuring plan by intel around the factory buildout and around trying to be a tsmc of the united states. how much faith do you have in that turnaround plan? ray: pat gelsinger is a skilled leader and if anyone can pull it off it will be packed. there is a lot of work to be done. they have to get into the five
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nanometer and three nanometer chips. these are not easy to build. they usually take 3-5 years to get up and running. he is buying time by talking about where they will be in terms of their forecast for the near future. the spinoff has helped them to stay more focused on their core business which is getting chips out and the chipset companies want. tom: let's go to tesla. what a 30 days it has been. adding 50%. the context is it is still down about 40% over the last 12 months. how does tesla get from one hundred 60 dollars per share up to $200? -- from $160 per share up to $200? ray: when you look at what they are able to do and the capacity
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that every factory has, these factories are able to crank out millions of teslas and that is the important thing. they have vertically integrated battery operation to do that. the valuation of tesla is not just being a car company. they have imaging data to deliver on autonomous vehicles. they have the capability to do self insurance. and more importantly, thinking about tesla in the longer run it is also about the energy management conversation they have not talked about in quite some time. it is all coming into play and towards the end of 2023 we will see the semis, and the cyber truck. that piece will cause another explosive growth as they get into the light truck market and the long haul truck market as well. tom: pipeline and market dominance. when it comes to microsoft, does it look fragile?
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ray: there is a declining growth in cloud demand but there are three players. microsoft, amazon and alphabet. microsoft has a good lock on large enterprise corporate's. along with the fact they are going after open ai and the regenerative aip's will create a lot of growth for them as people think about increasing and improving their workloads. they will think about microsoft. and they are also waiting for the activision deal to complete. tom: what do you make of the job cuts across technology? is this cutting the fat? is there more headcount to go and what is the resilience of the talent market? ray: we have had 1400 rounds of layoffs. 27,000 workers announced so far this year but in the big picture
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tech companies have let go of their bottom 5% every year and i did not happen since 20 and the pandemic. it has been three years of that. what we have been's seeing is -- what we have been seeing is that workers let go have been able to find jobs within 60-90 days. while that sounds concerning, they are going to other industries. companies that could not pay the same amounts as the digital giants are able to grab them. and start ups that would not have been able to afford the salaries that these large digital giants are paying. tom: it is comforting to hear a lot of these people being laid off or finding positions rapidly. what do you want to stay clear of? you have talked about relative optimism around microsoft and tesla. are you sticking with the big blue chips?
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four do you want to take more risk -- or do you want to take more risk? ray: i am still not convinced we are going to have fed cuts in the way we are looking at. i think the fed has to hold its line and it will wait until the end to do it. if it goes well i'm looking at critical infrastructure. anything around analytics, automation, ai, cloud. take service now. he beat their numbers -- in silicon valley we talk about the role of 40 but they are operating at rule of 60. they have made a commitment to not fire anyone in 2023 so you are seeing them take off. and we are going to see what happens with salesforce. tom: smart analysis. fantastic stuff. ray wang, founder of constellation research joining
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us out of san francisco. adani group says the report from hindenburg research is bogus but group shares continue to come under pressure. or on that story just ahead. this is bloomberg. -- more on that story just ahead. this is bloomberg. ♪
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tom: welcome back to the open.
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42 minutes into the european trading day. modest gains across the european wrench marks. a choppy session. yesterday's gains looking at a mixed picture. nasdaq futures lower by 6/10 of 1%. first word news: chancellor jeremy hunt will boost the u.k.'s growth rate in a major speech at bloomberg's european headquarters this morning. he is expected to reject calls for tax cuts while arguing the country can use brexit freedoms to improve sluggish growth record. the u.k. remains the only g-7 economy with gdp below pre-covid levels. bloomberg tv will speak to him after his speech. don't miss it at 10:30 a.m. bloomberg has learned that japan and the netherlands are set to join the u.s. in limiting china's access to advanced chipmaking machinery. officials from the countries will conclude talks on the
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details as soon as today. it will further undercut beijing's ambitions to build its own domestic microchip capabilities. the u.s. economy beat expectations in the final quarter of 2022. gdp rose at an annualized pace of 2.9%, cooling from 3.2% in the third quarter. some economists said there were warning signs in the data, especially weakening consumer demand that suggested u.s. recession remains a big risk this year. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. this is bloomberg. tom: laura wright, thank you. let's switch focus to a banking giant with a footprint in london and hong kong. hsbc shares have become the most overbought in three decades. on the exchange in hong kong. investors are piling back into
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retail things to the brighter outlook of china reopening. highlighting that story for you. the listing in london up 35% since mid-october. a turnaround certainly in terms of the fortunes of hsbc benefiting from an unexpected flow of capital from mainland china into its branches in hong kong. shares of adani group companies tumbling after report from hindenburg research. losses accelerated even after adani disputed the allegations in a call with bondholders and has pledged to release a detailed rebuttal later today. let's get more details from mobile. we are -- from mumbai. will the rebuttal help? >> the damage is done.
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the companies have lost around $45 billion of wealth and some of the key stocks have lost in double digits and it continues. the context is that today is when adani groups a flagship company [indiscernible] it is managed to allow shares to anchor. hindenburg launched its report. we are expecting more and we expect the report to calm after the closure. we do not expect it today. tom: it is worth pointing out
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that adani and executives have said the claims are totally unfounded and we will wait for the full rebuttal. there is a broader read across for india corp. the investment thesis in india has been shaken by this. will it be sustained? how concerned are indian corporations and executives about this? >> there was a previous report that flagged the same thing. the company watered down its stance. in case of this being proven right, it could have an impact on india but for now it has not
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been proven. and it is being denied by the adani group executives. and they have also threatened that they would be taking legal action against hindenburg research. the story is developing. it will be one to watch. tom: it has a lot further to run. always excellent, thank you for bringing us the latest on the misfortunes or controversy around adani group. talking of stocks and individual names, let's bring to our attention some of the mover's. in the grocery space. family-owned bestway group buying a percent stake in sainsbury, the second largest grocer in the country. the bestway group is the owner
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of cost cutter among others and saying they are open to increasing their stake at some point. shares rally on the back of that new speculation about the future of sainsbury. h&m is a different story with earnings pointing to a contraction around margins and concerns about high inventory. talk arete -- stocks down around 6%. lvmh up five -- 5/10 of 1%. sales rising 10% in the last quarter and they are optimistic about the future as chinese consumers come back out and starting to spend. we will be getting the latest from an lvmh executive. reporting on the slump in chinese demand. at the luxury giant says the year started well as the restrictions of ease. we will hear from an lvmh executive, the cfo. it is next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> from this low amount of business we have recovered significantly in january. it is only three weeks and it is hard to make a trend of three weeks but we can be really optimistic that china has turned a page of the disruption of the
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pandemic and we can look forward to the business with more optimism. tom: the lvmh cfo speaking exclusively to anna edwards. for more on europe's most valuable company, joining me now is bloomberg's european luxury reporter. what are the main takeaways from these results from lvmh? >> basically when it comes to the fourth quarter, they were heavily impacted like their pee rs by their performance in china. china has been a crucial market and in december the country went from lockdowns to a complete u-turn. but then a covid wave hit. a lot of the customers could not go to the stores and also their workers were ill. that led to asia being down a percent on the quarter -- that led to asia being down 8% on the
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quarter. but the start of the year according to the cfo has gone well. for instance trends in macau, a crucial or big forest destination -- tourist destination are incredible. they are seeing encouraging signs about the recovery. and among -- last year it surpassed a 20 billion euro sales and that is their biggest label. lvmh does not write down financial numbers per brand here they did. tom: we talked about the domestic market in macau and the reopening but then there is a question about the all-powerful cash rich chinese tourist coming to europe. how much of that spend will be beneficial? >> that is a big question.
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pre-pandemic, the chinese tourists would love to come to paris and milan to buy french or italian labels. they were saying that the chinese will travel in asia initially however it will take a little more time for them to come to europe even though there is pent-up demand but there is limited airline capacity. yesterday he was telling us that he expects more the wealthy individuals to come rather than the big groups of chinese who used to come and benefit from package stores. he reckoned -- he believes the massive return of chinese tourists will happen next year. tom: their show producer wants to know if her dior handbag will cost more again this year. >> we put the question to him
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and he said the labels across the board increased prices and are driven by inflation. however he said they are less likely to do so in 2023. they are leaving room for some maneuver. he said you cannot do price hikes every three days because it is disruptive for the customer. and you have to be careful because it is risky and when you do price hikes you have to justify them. you are a lot of marketing and promotions and advertising which are also costly. tom: angelina, fantastic. thank you so much. and the prospects for lvmh companies. it has been a bit of a turnaround in terms of sentiment turning more positive across the benchmark.
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across the benchmark, gains of about 1/10 of 1%. germany adding 21%. the ftse 100 getting a bit of a lift. we look ahead to the u.s. session after wall street closed particularly the nasdaq up around 2%. will the optimism around technology continue or will the focus shift back to the prospects of what is happening with the fed next week? the jobs market remains very tight indeed. that is it for the european market open. we will hear from u.k. chancellor exchequer. this is bloomberg. ♪
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