tv Bloomberg Markets European Open Bloomberg January 30, 2023 3:00am-4:00am EST
fails to answer most questions. stocks and futures fall as investors wait adani's plunge, china's reopening and rate decisions. the french automaker renault cuts its stake in nissan to 15% among a revamp. let's take a look at the futures. happy monday everyone. you have made it through the weekend. it will be a big week for central banks and futures on the downside. as we are expecting, the markets to open, european stock futures down some for tens of a percent. shares declining overall. in asia, traders and investors split attention on the looming interest rate decisions in the u.s. and europe and the reopening of mainland china and what is going on in the plunge with adani group assets. this is a picture across the board for what is going on. we are expecting the indices to stay subdued as we expect more news from central banks but also
the broader outlook from the fed is keeping pressure across the board. we always keep an eye on commodities. gold down 2/10 of a percent. a lot of equity markets are opening on the downside is expected. a little bit of green for the cac 14. fed officials in general we are looking at down shift in the pace of rate hikes on wednesday. for the markets as about jerome powell's look. what data could powell use to beat hawkish? >> it is about his outlook on the u.s. economy. if you want him to sound dovish, he could acknowledge the deterioration in the survey data. these are soft sentiment indicators but have been heading in the same direction. you can compare the magnitude of the move to the deterioration we saw and it has been notable. he could lean into this and say the deterioration in this data
is enough to stop talking about ongoing rate rises and enough for me to start talking about a pause, a possible pivot. if you wanted to son hawkish, francine, he could lay into the u.s. labor market data and essentially say it, this labor market is way too hot we know that wage inflation is something that is going to keep core services cpi quite buoyed and he couldn't lean into that curve there and say i need to see deterioration in this hard labor market data in order for me to start talking about a pause or pivot. 30 -- thirdly, he could sound boring and try not to come out as hawkish or dovish because he knows there's a lot of data and between this meeting in march. in march we get updated dot plot and forecast. if you wanted to make waves, he could wait until then and make it sound for itself if they read
-- revisor inflation forecast and dot plot and make their pivot then. francine: there may be defiance from the fed and he walks a tight rope. valerie tytel there looking ahead to what j. powell could say. we also heard from morgan stanley who said it is not the right time to chase the rally as the fed is moving. markets in mainland china have reopened after the week long -- lunar new year holiday. for more let's bring in chief china markets reporter. sophia, good morning to you. what is the take away from what china will do from here on out? >> it is a muted reopen considering the gains and offshore markets in hong kong. it rose 0.4% a catch-up rally in the yuan as well. it was a muted reopening given the data that we saw in consumption spending and travel really markets are taking profits and stocks in hong kong
fell significantly. the story is when the good news it does come get ahead of it. we saw strong northbound buying suggesting foreign investments -- investors want to get into the market. the fact that onshore stocks do not enter able market today suggest a little bit more upside but we will see where the trend is this week. francine: when you look at some policymakers in china and what they are not telling us what is that mean for equities going forward. sofia: is all about liquidity remaining appropriate. that is the key word. it is the key thing for the central bank in beijing. it will ensure there is enough money in the banking system to really get the credit growth story picking up that was really the main challenge in the final quarter of last year. the reason why is businesses
were not to borrowing. there was no demand. the economy was shut because of covid zero and it makes no sense to borrow. looking ahead at that and what the policymakers do to support the housing market in the lead up to lunar new year we had a ramp-up in support measures. more to look for their. also any conversations around what it will take to boost consumption because the lunar new year is a strong season for that weird weather will continue or stick and whether this is a trend in the consumer is getting more confident as a key question for policymakers ahead. francine: thank you so much. sofia horta e costa. breaking news out of spain. cpi rising 5.8% year on year instead of the 4.8% was expected. the interesting bit about the inflation in spain is the markets look at it as forward-looking indicators for the rest of the euro zone as inflation ticked up in spain
before did the rest of the region. joining us now is a european equity portfolio manager markets. what does the inflation number tell us about what is happening next? the german two-year yield move higher. >> good morning. it would has illustrated as well central banks have some breathing space because of inflation data out recently, we are not through the woods and this is a very clear mindset for investors. core inflation will remain robust and particularly when you see the labor wage data that we are seeing across the board at the moment. francine: what does that mean for asset allocation? do look at earnings or try not to fight the fed and look at central banks? marcus: we are the beginning of
an exciting week. we're looking at macro data and the three major central banks reporting and also a big week for earnings results across the board. what we have seen so far is earnings generally less at the people feared. we are in profound earnings recession but that has so far not materialized. you are seeing a relatively strong rally in the beginning of the year. we are recognizing recurrent themes from the earnings results we have had so far. the first one to point out is that although headline revenue growth has been relatively robust, the majority of that has come from a drop in volume. there worries there about how consumption might look moving forward. secondly, i would mention that inventory levels across the board are something for people to monitor moving forward. lastly, the margin pressure that
is beginning to materialize partly as a consequence of higher inflation and what it's indicating. what does that mean? francine: is it time to selloff? what does the market -- what is the market getting wrong? do you selloff in sectors that have been seeing a rally in the last two months? marcus: we have seen the most extreme moves already at the beginning of the year. if you look at the areas of the market that perform strongest year to date, it was roy the areas that were in the eye of the storm last year. technology and retail and travel being in the top three performing sectors. the next step of the rally i think we need more. that will be to prove not only are we not having a profound earnings recession but companies can remain robust through this challenging. which will inevitably happen the next coming months. the advantage for markets now is the valuations are much more
reasonable. that will urge so -- investors to be selective and bullish were where we are -- where we are currently. francine: what is your take on the semi conductors? there's a good story that there are too many memory chips. i don't know if that's an indicator of the industry or more worldwide economy and what we will face in the next 12 months. marcus: exactly a's -- as you said it's both. typically, you see the stocks in terms of share prices heading into the selloff earlier and many other sectors but also coming out of that quicker. that is what we have seen so far. there is no doubt earnings are week, particularly on the memory side of the sector. they will likely remain weak but the stocks of many of these places have traded strongly. that's a sign that investors are beginning to look through the recession already and play the upcoming recovery.
just to point out one result, a small swiss company reported 43% year on year decline in orders two weeks ago but the shares were up on the day. that's probably a very clear indication that investors are well aware of the recession upcoming but they are running ahead of the market and looking to play that recovery. francine: arcus -- marcus morris-eyton, thank you so much. we'll talk about the industries he likes. this is other breaking news from adani. this is the story that has dominated the headlines in the last four days or so. adani enterprises erases 10% of gains, all of the group stocks are dropping. let's take a look at the moment. the news over the weekend was that they responded and basically said it is not good
enough. they attempted to restore confidence in the business empire. that seems to be falling flat with investors. stockmarket loss is deepening and keep dollar bonds falling to fresh lows. coming up they continue to be under pressure as the lengthy rebuttal by the indian conglomerate fails to allay concerns. this is bloomberg. ♪
francine: welcome back to the open everyone. we are 30 minutes into the european trading day. we will spend a bit of time on cpi in spain. first of all, we saw the inflation print in january came about 13 minutes ago and was higher than expected. this is important because you think it is interesting over -- only for spain but not so. the markets have been looking at spain as a forward-looking indicator for the rest of the euro zone. inflation ticked up there before anywhere else. unexpectedly jumping after months of easing. that is getting a lot of investors on edge at the moment and we are seeing a move in treasuries and gilts which are weaker after the spanish cpi. consumer prices in spain advancing 5.8% from a year ago in january up from the previous
5.5% increase. let's get more on adani. short seller in the bird research says the group's response to its report alleging stock manipulation and fraud has failed to answer most of the questions imposed. many adani a group companies stocks and bonds have dropped. they say the report is bogus and unresearched. let's get more with pr sanjay in mumbai. >> adani has issued a 413 page rebuttal largely saying this is a baseless allegation and hindenburg research is largely ignorant about indian laws and regulations. whatever these allegations are not just adani but india also. in other words, they are putting
nationalism in front of this allegation to cover up and also adani has clearly said has been managing equity funds from investors. one less point with the allegation made on their directors etc., they have all been approved and given the green light to the supreme court. essentially, hindenburg research do not understand the regulatory framework of india. that is what adani group is saying. they give -- they have given interviews explaining this. francine: if you look at the rebuttal, it has not helped stop the selloff at all. >> which is true. the selloff is continuing. adani group company already lost $71 billion were of -- worth of market cap as of now. most of the companies are in the
red after losing the gains ahead in the first session. i feel it will be ending tomorrow and they have not hoped for repricing or extension of time. -- time period. francine: thank you so much for joining us. bloomberg's conglomerate reporter. let's get over to our business flash. hi adrian. >> ryanair says it is confident it can sustain a profitable run into next year. europe's largest discount airline report -- reported profit after tax of 211 million euros below estimates of 263 million euros. ryanair says the winning market share in spain and scandinavia and adding capacity in markets including the u.k.. toyota has kept its crown as the world's top-selling carmaker, widening its lead over
volkswagen, despite supply chain disruptions continuing to weigh on the industry. toyota group sales were mostly flat at 10.5 million units for 2022. volkswagen's output fell to 8.3 million units, marking the lowest level of deliveries in 11 years. asml says chip export curbs on china should not have a material effect on his earnings this year. the company is expecting sales of $6.6-$7.1 billion this quarter. the u.s. and its allies were restricting exports of some advanced chipmaking machinery to china. francine: thank you so much. coming, nissan and result are revamping their alliance. this is bloomberg. ♪
francine: welcome back to the open everyone. 20 minutes until the european trading day. we are waiting for the big central-bank decisions this week and the cpi print in spain possibly an indicator of what's to come and the rest of the euro zone because it was the first one to show those signs of uptake and unexpectedly jumping for the month of january. mark gets on -- markets on
tenterhooks. were notes in nissan -- renault and nissan are revamping their alliance. after months of drama, is this really it? what are the next steps? >> certainly good news for reno and nissan today. a key step forward. the operating board of the alliance met on thursday and gave the top executives of the three companies -- let's not forget mitsubishi here. they gave them an overhaul of the alliance and very complicated in the past few years. a lot of drama. the statement this morning is quite smooth and language but let's not forget that this is the result of months of tense talks. good news but it is not the final word it yet. the boards of the respective
companies have to approve the deal now. it should not be very problematic for the renault board but for nissan, we have seen surprises in the past. independent board of directors have given their nod to the plan a january 7 but until the contracts are signed we will have to wait for those details to come in a few days. francine: what does this mean effectively? >> this is a good question because renault and nissan want to show the continuation of a packed that they had created in 1999 when were nault -- renault saved nissan. the chairman at the time said the alliance was probably flawed from the beginning so a lot of tensions over the years and resentment. nissan became a bigger company
and the spectacular downfall in 2018. what does this mean going forward? essentially all companies in the automotive industry are under pressure. you have very quick technology innovations coming up with a dizzying speed. think of tesla and the capacity they have as a newcomer to become a giant in just a few years. you have software companies also starting to play in the automotive industry. nissan and renault need to move forward electrification. they need to be much quicker to snap up opportunities and deepen ties with chinese companies or qualcomm and the current structure did not allow for them to proceed so quickly. both companies will have more autonomy to deal with the massive challenges ahead. francine: thank you so much. as always, alberta torsoli.
let's turn to the energy sector. bell's new ceo said they will be overhauling things to boost performance. what is included in this overhaul? >> its internal housekeeping. they have reduced the size of the executive committee from 927 and created power bases within the company merging upstream with integrated -- integrated gas of business. secondly, downstream the traditionally refining and fueling business. those two parts of the business become a large and powerful. francine: what does it mean overall for the rivals? is this a template? are they behind the curve or does it show will other oil makers could do in the future? >> we have the new ceo coming at the start of the year in the big
issue for shall investors and they are behind chevron and exxon, the three biggest oil companies in the world. shell has returned over 70% since 2021, not bad. chevron has done a hundred and 10%. exxon hundred 80%. the desire for investors including the activist investor will be to close that gap. the big question is what does this mean for the energy transition strategy? will continue to build new energy businesses at the same pace? importantly, the other decision he has taken is to put the business and supply of gas into homes under strategic review. the question people will be asking is does the signal a broader change away from investing in new businesses and towards increasing shareholder returns for investors in
buybacks to better compete with chevron and exxon? francine: thank you so much. will kennedy with the latest. coming up, speculation of the bank of japan will normalize policy. other stocks move and a lot are falling. investors are not only looking at adani group. they are looking at inflation print from spain. this is bloomberg. ♪
francine: the fed decides that we have many other central banks. welcome back to the open. here are your top stories. the route and adani shares hits $72 billion on the companies a bond slide as hindenburg says the groups 413 page response to his allegation fails to answer most questions. the french automaker renault agrees to cut its stake in nissan to 15% as part of a revamp of the alliance. inflation unexpectedly jumps prompting traders to boost jumps -- that's on how the ecb will raise interest rates. investors are looking at adani and market caution if you look at what central banks could or
could not do in terms of central rate hikes a couple more pressure on some these equities. ftse under pressure. dax down 6/10 of a percent. there's a lot of caution creeping up in the markets at the start of the week. not only the interest rate decision, the fed, the bank of england and also big-name company earnings on both sides of the atlantic. we hear this day in and day out that equities may have been too pessimistic giving what could come ahead in earnings and margin squeeze. this is some of the groups that we are looking at in general. it is about inflation in spain. the inflationary figure in spain is higher than expected. this could be a cautionary tale for the rest of the euro zone. there it is. all groups out of the 20 that make up the stoxx 600 are down. some are not moving much. i'm looking at food and beverage and products or consumer products pretty much flat.
technology under pressure and travel and leisure under pressure as is real estate. let's focus on the end. there speculation that the bank of japan will normalize policy after a panel recommended the boj make changes for's long-term inflation target. we are joined by fx strategist sonia martin. thank you for joining us. we look at the prospects of the bank of japan changing their expectations that come before governor kuroda that steps down or is it a story from april onwards? >> think it will be a story from april onwards. the doj made that surprising december the decision to widen the bands. the market has been feeding off that since there we have seen the yen rallied significantly on the back of that what i think we have to understand that the move that the boj took in december was driven mainly by its desire to take some pressure out of the market. we all know it is entirely
dysfunctional at this point. they had this idea i think of releasing the pressure valve and letting some steam out. it has backfired on them because they have been forced to be very active in the market since because there's been a lot of speculation that the boj will take additional steps. i doubt it will happen near-term. we will have to wait until governor kuroda leaves for that to happen. even for does happen, it will not be the massive change that investors are currently speculating on. we expect them to hike rates but at the end of the year. we will talk about a 10 to 15 basis point rate cut -- rate hike which is not very much. francine: we heard from a panel of experts saying the japanese government should revise the joint policy statement and make inflation a longer-term goal. are we already pricing this in? is there a danger that the markets already think this will happen and so there is not much stock in all come april?
-- shock and all come april? >> this has been priced in. i still think once the boj takes another step later this year, that will have a another impact on the yen. it's not fully priced in. we will be coming out of a very come along. of mansion area -- a very long period of expansionary policy. i am not looking at the dollar-yen to trade below 120 on the back that. francine: you talk about a normalization of yields functions or complete rethink of monetary policy in japan? sonja: i think a bit on the part of inflation going forward. inflation japan has been higher and the boj has had the narrative that the inflation rate is high because of external factors. the longer the inflation rate is higher now, the more pressure there will be on the boj to make a move. whether they will abandon my cc,
we will have to see. that will be a major step. we are looking at cautious steps because they don't want to rattle the market too much. francine: where do you see yen at the end of the year? should i ask you before the end of the summer and then the end of the year because a lot could happen between now and then. sonja: we are looking for low one 20's but there is a risk of slight overshooting but that is the area we are looking or. francine: when you look at euro-yen or dollar-yen, what is the best pairing and are we looking for given the certainty -- uncertainty surrounding the fed, are you expecting dollar strength? sonja: we have a slightly negative view on the dollar. not overly dramatic but we are not looking for the dollar to have a substantial strong year like we saw last year. it's probably best paired against the dollar rather than the euro. we look at the ecb and we are looking at 125 basis points
which will give the euro some support. the yen versus the dollar is a better bet. francine: when you look at euro and what we heard from that inflation in spain, the markets are really taking that inflation number from spain as an indicator because last time it was the first one that went up. it's is still the case or are there more domestic factors in spain which would make this case different? sonja: we have quite a few countries in europe that are showing slightly softer inflation readings in december and are expected to increase again in january. that applies to germany for example because the measures taken by governments to soften the blow of higher energy prices are running out. that will lead to a pickup in inflation across the euro zone in january. that was to be expected. the reading from this morning was surprisingly high, but generally speaking, it was anticipated that inflation would pick up again. the problem is that the market
has inflation was over. the better inflation readings in december gave a lot of optimism and that was clearly overdone. the numbers from the rest of the euro zone will confirm this. francine: what does that mean for ecb policy? sonja: christine lagarde was very clear in december that there will be another two 50 point basis rate hikes and that is what we are looking for. we are looking for 50 basis points this week and march and early may 25. we have another 125 basis points in the pipeline and that is what the market is pricing and peer there has been speculation that the ecb might slow down earlier and that will confirm the cpi reading. francine: does the inflation print change anything? is there a danger that the ecb over titans to make sure that -- over titans.
sonja: we looking for soft growth in the euro zone. it is no longer officially a recession but is slow down and that is driven by high inflation and the loss of purchasing power. today's inflation reading does not change that. the ecb if we are looking at 125 from here onwards, the ecb is moving into restrictive territory but it is not as restrictive as the fed. that is something they can sustain and is very much in line with their inflation target. francine: thank you so much. sonja marten. coming up, the german chancellor olaf scholz visit south america this weekend so let's find out what he wants from the trip. that is coming up next. this is bloomberg. ♪
welcome back to the open everyone. 41 minutes into the european trading day. a lot of pressure on the dax and cac all down. the focus not only on some things we are seeing, which is positioning ahead of the fed and the ecb and the bank of england but also a little bit of pressure because of the adani route hitting $72 billion as a fight with hindenburg is intensifying. let's check in on some stocks
that are on the move. note -- renault shares slipping after it is going to change the alliance with nissan. this is a historic rebalancing. renault lorded stake in nissan ash lowered its stake in nissan. the other stock mover is. shall. they huge impact on some rivals as well. look at all oil majors. shell overhauling its business after new executive has taken over. it will combine the integrated gas and upstream divisions and merge the downstream and renewable units. finally, unilever. this is one of our biggest top
stories. we had the chief executive today. the story is that will pick a new chief executive. on the back of that, share price gaining 7/10 of a percent. a mild winter may have helped europe dodge the worst scenario from the energy crisis but here's why the continents economic powerhouse may still bear scars. >> europe will probably survive the winter without blackouts but higher energy prices may leave their mark, particularly in germany. most developed economies have become services driven and don't make anything anymore. not so in deutschland. it is called europe's engine for a reason. 90% of the economy -- 19% of the economy is industrial manufacturing. making stuff is great but it takes a lot of energy. industry sucks up nearly 28% of germany's total power
consumption and less than 20% in france. giants can weather big storms but a large portion of germany production comes from mom-and-pop manufacturers. when energy prices explode threat can be existential particularly in glass, concrete, steel, bricks, chemicals. together they are big business. germany employs 55% of the working population with those companies and they are responsible for 37% of industrial jobs. the government is doing what it can borrowing more than half a trillion euros but that cannot go on forever. europe is the biggest exporter that relies on cheap russian gas that flows no more. francine: burke's oliver crook and berlin with a look at energy cost involved in keeping germany's industrial manufacturing sectors. olaf scholz visits south america
this weekend. he will look at supplies of lithium that card giants like mercedes-benz and volkswagen need for their electric vehicle batteries. chad joins us now. what is the main message from olaf scholz on this trip? >> he feels like germany had to learn its lesson with the heavy reliance on russian gas and we all saw how painful that process has been over the last year or so. what he is now focused on is where do they find rare earth? he did this trip to south america and he was in argentina on saturday, chill late yesterday and brazil today. he was looking for deals to get lithium. of course, the german automotive industry, oliver was talk about that his piece a minute ago, is so key to the economy here. lithium as we all know is a key
component of batteries. the carmakers make that shift to left vacation and they will need that lithium. he is working to secure contracts for these german companies for lithium. francine: i was surprised that this does not go through the european union voice. i don't know whether he feels he can achieve more as germany. he does seem to be trying to take on china directly. chad: he is in the message he was sending over the weekend is much of this lithium currently that they are producing is going to china where china and then is actually processing it and reselling it. the argument he is making to these countries is work with us. we will help you set up the manufacturing in your own country where people will get jobs in argentina and chile assessing the lithium and sending it onto germany.
that is the argument he is making an says germans know how to do this in a way that is more environmentally friendly. that is really the sales pitch that he is making and clearly, he decided he is not going to wait for the eu to take action here. he needs to step forward as a german chancellor and try to secure some of these deals. francine: chaddha, as always great to have you. -- chaddha, great to have you. let's get to the first word news with adrian. >> adani has published a 413-page rebuttal to the shortsellers's allegation of fraud and stock manipulation. the indian conglomerate admist a 42.5 billion share sale is seeking to stem a route that has wiped out more than $60 billion of the group's market value. hindenburg research, which published the initial report, said adani's response has failed to answer 62 of 88 questions it posed. israel says it may penalize the families of palestinian attackers by revoking identity cards and residency if it supports violence.
the warning comes after a palestinian man shot and killed seven civilians on friday. that followed a deadly israeli raid in the west bank city of jenin. the rising violence making january one of the bloodiest months in years comes ahead of a visit by u.s. secretary of state, antony blinken later this week. bloomberg has learned that top investment bankers in asia are seeing their pay packets cut in half this year. sources tell us that on average, managing directors at banks including goldman sachs, morgan stanley, and bank of america are seeing compensation drop by between 40% and 50%. the news comes as a slump in dealmaking pushes the industry to look for ways to keep a lid on spiraling costs. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. francine? francine: thank you so much. coming up, a conservative party
the markets are trying to get ready for central-bank decisions later in the week. they are looking at adani and the pressure there. we had the inflation print in spain that was higher than expected. it may be a signal of what's to come for the rest of the euro zone. let's look at the events that we are following this week. we keep an eye on yields always in europe because that could happen but -- indication of what the ecb does there may be more hikes ahead. ecb's villa roi is due to speak on monday. we will have the u.s. employment cost index. officials are poised to slow the pace of rate hikes. manufacturing data is due followed by rate decisions from the ecb and bank of thursday. friday has an u.s. employment, unemployment and payrolls. the u.k. prime minister rishi sunak has fired zahawi.
he said independent review showed serious ethics breaches. joining us now is bloomberg's leigh-ann gerrans. good morning. this is yet another blow to the government of rishi sunak. he is only been in power for three months. >> we know this is another blow to him. yesterday we found out that the party chairman had been kicked out rishi sunak over tax revelations that have really come to light and shifted the move from policy and controversy that happened within the tory party. we know that gavin williamson was earlier leaving the government resigning over ethics probe of bullying and now the deputy prime minister is facing an ethics probe. things are just not looking good as tories seem to be coming back
into the party. this is what rishi sunak has been promising to root out. francine: he has promised a lot. if you look at u.k. business, we had optimism that was incredible. there was lloyds banking group survey and a six-month high. leigh-ann: they have brought some optimism to the doom and gloom that we have been seeing when it comes to strikes plaguing much of the country. lloyds banking group, the monthly business barometer, something we do watch closely here, francine, is shutting -- showing the reading at a six-month high despite signs activity was starting to decline at the beginning of the year. i want to say confidence indicators in this country right now are sending out conflicting messages. i will tell you exactly why. the u.k. picture was reinforced by a separate survey by the business group the cbi which is
warning that we are heading into recession. the private sector activity is beginning to fall and that's because of rising cost of living pressures and the strikes we have seen in so many industries. two conflicting reports today, one positive and one slightly not so. francine: it is good that we have some positive. we have not had that for a while in the u.k.. leigh-ann: hopefully today we can have more positive news on the put it aside as rishi sunak is doing the rounds when it comes to the nhs pledging more money for that also. the what's on the horizon. francine: thank you so much. leigh-ann gerrans with the latest on the u.k.. surveillance early edition is up next. we look at the full markets and focus not only on inflation in spain but some of the individual stocks on the move. this is a picture across the board. i am looking at shell, one of the biggest movers in today's
trading session. we are also looking at the dutch dairy boss and the chief executive after the replacement. we saw unilever under a lot of pressure. they were putting dyer of investors including mason. we will look at individual movers. renault looking to lowered the nissan stake. this is bloomberg. ♪
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