tv Bloomberg Markets Americas Bloomberg February 13, 2023 10:00am-11:00am EST
mike wilson said equities refuse to accept reality and inflation numbers could be the catalyst. an decelerating or we accelerated the debate picks up around the strength of the u.s. economy. we will get the take from randall krasner. guy johnson is off this week, apparently skiing somewhere. this 1% rally i am seeing is perplexing, when you look at volume across the board is superlight at this point. ritika: we have -- dani: we have twin risks. the valentines day massacre seems too violent and extremely dramatic, but a lot of unknowns on deck for tomorrow. alix: and we have unidentified flying objects. in reality, there is another
risk. how do you price risk in at this point when we have seen such a strong rally in the equity market? you get expiring friday as well. dani: and the bond market, two year yield set a high. that brings us to the question of the day. it is what are the unidentified object risks? so much happening tomorrow. what else are we not prepared for? joining us for perspective, we will get kriti gupta. can we set it up for tomorrow. there might be some hesitation kriti: you are seeing the light volume. when you talk about the components of cpi, keep an eye
on the energy. energy prices have risen. they haven't risen and it is important to see how that shows up in the overall data, which will be a key piece of data. i don't think we can completely write out the geopolitical risk because over the weekend we saw the china u.s. tensions increasing a little bit. alix: i want to point this out. as of the spike in geopolitical tension from china's balloons and that russia-ukraine stalemate is bringing a broad-based policy and is becoming the new normal and not just a blip. what do you think about that? ira: we don't have a lot of fiscal flexibility unless you think the deficits are going to go up significantly more in
large part because mandatory spending like social security and medicare are a huge part of the budget. you have outstanding debt that is so high it is affecting market liquidity. there is a risk if it is a large increase in deficits you can wind up having more volatility in maybe rate markets will price in for more persistent deficits for longer, even though this year it looks like the deficit is improving compared to the last couple of years. dani: what would that look like and where would it show up? ira: just in the overall level of rates. it is hard to quantify the counterfactual, because if rates would rally to 3% instead they go to 3.25 because the idea the deficit will be higher, it is had to say where those levels
would be. there is a risk that if you wind up with risks rising faster than nominal gdp, if it is running faster and rates are probably going to state more elevated than they would otherwise, particularly if the economy runs at an ok pace. alix: it brings you back to the ufos. we all put the china-u.s. tengion thing on the side table but it feels like we have to start thinking about that. there was an article on the bloomberg that talked about how ceos are going back to china and then something like this happens. is there risk of that priced in? kriti: it is still seeping in. the best way to look at it is the dollar and fence. you are seeing it in the equity market and it feels like a throwback to win the war in
ukraine first broke out. that had a bigger reaction. looking at the china story, you are seeing the defense names catching a bit here the only laggard is boeing and these names you are looking at on screen had more bids and has shifted to cpi. it is important when we talk about the exposure we want. to the court about the ceo side, a lot of people did dive back into china, especially with the reopening. hasbro is one of my favorite poster child of this because they try to relocate supply chains and move it to mark mexico and south america and the stocks suffered for it. that is worth paying attention to. dani: speaking of how ceos have been reacting, this recession has been extremely well identified risk. someone argued it is too well
identified. you heard that of goldman sacks said he would have cut more people if he had known this in hindsight. what does it mean for corporate behavior? kriti: from a stock market or market perspective, perhaps the selloff of last year was over dumb and that is boiled in -- was overdone and that is boiled in. the hiring situation is being viewed in a bittersweet way. you have seen the layoffs in the tech space and they were rewarded in the market. take a look at it from industrials, 3m and ge talking about hiring and they were punished for it by the stock market. it is interesting to see that diversion with the last jobs report at 517,000.
it is hard to put a broad-based umbrella on it. better to shift focus to things like buybacks or issuance, because that is what is going to impact a lot of these shares. alix: wait till there is a tax on it. headed into tomorrow, what is the positioning in the bond market ahead of cpi tomorrow? ira: positioning is cleaner than it has been over the prior couple of weeks. the risk is we wind up with a cpi report that is a little lower but not as low as some forecasters suggest. and this goes back to the question about the ufos and tensions between the u.s. and china. if there are more trade tensions and we end up in a scenario where races of goods being import wind up going up again, that obviously can slow down the inflation story we have been getting and that could have
significant effect on the bond market overall and really start to see even more of a selloff in a deeper inversion of the yield curve. alix: you are looking at the two-year come up by two or three basis points. great way to set us up for the day. thank you both very much. mama -- more on the question of the day, what are the unidentified object risks? this is bloomberg. ♪ >> the u.s. government at no point believed these were reflective of a significant additional intelligence threat to the united states. i think both biden and xi want to look at the relationship but that is different than before. ♪
date. lori calvasina, some of the data is perplexing. what do you make of that? where are the risks? lori: there are upside and downside risks. we are basically around the 4100 target. i worry about things like the debt ceiling and i worry about whether or not we are going to be still debating whether we are headed into a recession in 2024. markets are pricing in 2024 as a recovery year and these objects are reminding us of geopolitics is something we continue to have to be worried about. last week we expected to see companies getting excited about the china reopening and the messaging was, there is a lot of uncertainty, let's wait and see. there are a lot of negative risks lurking. our upsides. what if we don't end up having a recession?
that is something that comes up in a lot of my meetings. so there are risks on both sides. dani: it is reflected in the two-year. i was talking that the two-year is at the highest level of the year, but there is disconnect between that and equities. mike wilson of morgan stanley writing about it saying equities don't reflect reality. do think we are disconnected to reality in equity markets? lori: i think equity markets don't reflect the reality he sees coming and that is an appropriate thing to worry about. but we are really starting this economic rough patch so we saw a lot of companies, particularly in the tech space, talk about how they are seeing signs of slowing. in guidance discussions, we saw companies saying we think recovery is going to happen in this point in time or think we will weather the storm well. i think there is reality that
ceos and investors have in their mind and it is probably reflected accurately in stock prices right now. whether that interpretation changes is a different thing. alix: part of what was driving it was low-quality stocks. lori: i pushback, and i was talking to my derivative sales team because they were getting a lot of questions in conversations that the junk is running in this has to fall apart. i am not seventh attic to that argument at all. one of the things we published in our piece this morning is if you look at whenever equity markets are coming off mid recession los, it may not be there but at the recovery you see the junk run, whether you are looking at the us a 1000 or russell 2000 -- the russell 1000 or russell 2000. that is what tends to do well
when markets are finally embarking on recovery trade. i have been doing this for two decades and everyone dismisses it as short recovery. sometimes they fizzle out but get started about those protests being made. dani: if we are seeing some of the hints of the beginning of that and perhaps it does fizzle out, do you want to change your 4100 call on this would be market if it is slightly above it at this moment? lori: we have said we are comfortable with our number. i feel like in terms of tone, my view is different from some of the more bearish strategists. we do see risks lurking on the back half. that being said, we have published that we said if there is risk we are being too conservative, we think the risk is more to the upside and some models will push us up to 4500. that is the kind of thing you get hit at the end of the year. any kind of conviction level as
much as wait to come out with 100% certainty, it feels more like a 60% or 70% world on any call so we have to state numeral. but on 4100, i feel neutral and feel like there are risks on slides and i continued pushback on the bearish view alix:. there is a lot of uncertainty out there. tomorrow you get the number, where is the biggest risk for the market? lori: things have changed a bit over the past week and a half. we saw all your the growth sectors rallying and the tech sector doing well. these areas you would expect to do well after the final february hike or we are looking at today. good news around that priced in. i feel like the set up going into tomorrow at least on the equity side has gotten cautious again. we will see what the data shows but if we get a favorable
reading in the fed view, the fed will be able to pause before too long comes back to play and there is room for growth sectors to run and of those, tech would be our favorite. dani: i can't help but wonder the macro story, driver of the cpi, does it take a backseat as you said you are starting to see a reflection in the equity market of ceos sees as the reality. his is the year of micro driving the equity market? lori: that is a great point. one of my big takeaways talking to clients is that people are ready to move on from inflation and ready to start thinking forward. i think some corners of the market priced in whatever we call our recession growth scare or whatever it ends up being. now that i see in the transcripts that ceos are talking about the idea of
recovery and let that seep into the 2020 for discussions. that is something investors will be eager to jump onto as soon they can. dani: i am eager to talk about something different than inflation, so i can seventh eyes. thanks for joining us. still ahead, hype over ai. some market watches sounding and ai stock. the startup is next. this is bloomberg. ♪ oh booking.com, ♪ i'm going to somewhere, anywhere. ♪ ♪ a beach house, a treehouse, ♪ ♪ honestly i don't care ♪
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outlook. the third-largest able corn will stop minting coins as regulators rack up pressure and clamp down the digital asset sector. qatari investors set to make an offer for manchester united in the coming days. the move would cement the desire to become a major player in global sports. officials at the sovereign wealth fund are hoping with preparations for a bid alongside a local family office. the ferrari ceo says the manufacturer is fully on track to unveil its first fully electric vehicle in 2025. >> we have a lot of confidence in the company to keep developing cars. from a driver dynamic, performance.
>> he spoke at the headquarters in italy. alix: it is 20 past seven on the west coast. the bay bridge is covered in fog. we want to get to the startup and talk about the top tech stories. joining us is ed ludlow. it may be dreary but not if you are investing in ai stocks. ed: it has been a bizarre 24 hours. the question is who is more advanced, the united states or china. a strange market dynamic. there is a company that is in ai company focused on computer vision and a i analysis and they came out and said we cannot do what check gpt is doing -- chat
gpt is doing and others in terms of that style of ai. shares fell 10% in this knee-jerk reaction. by the close of play in china, they were flat. i bring that up with this chart which is a multi-month performance of beijing and it china rivals. just like in the u.s., everyone has been speculatively betting on these stocks that they will announced something. overnight, they announced we cannot do this, at least not yet. that is brilliant in the context of what we have been covering in the recent weeks. dani: that was an excellent segway. it didn't ask -- answer the question. alix: thank you. dani: we will give you a chance again. i wonder if we are seeing anything from companies, much
like what we saw with the hype around the cloud and crypto, where every company is claiming they have some ai element to them. ed: bloomberg news has done terrific writing about this. are these ai related stocks behaving like meme stocks, herd mentality, buying in because it is all the hype or rage, or is it with crypto where everyone speculatively jumped in because they didn't want to miss the boat? a lot of these companies are early-stage pre-revenue and went public for spac's. year to date or two month, six week performance is absolutely staggering. big bear is up more than 500%. when we speak to venture capitalists investing in this
area, and we speak to experts in the field, they couldn't tell you what these were doing. they were speculative bets to what we are seeing in the real world. alix: the nasdaq 100 is up 94 points and microsoft is accounting for 50 points of that. what gives? ed: this is going back to basics. analysts are taking their time and said the outlook or microsoft software is decent and that it is attractively valued and fundamentals are strong. when they look at the artificial intelligence component, they see the benefit of the top line being distant and moderate in the near term. there was so much hype about what microsoft was doing in ai research, that in the scheme of things that it will be a while before it meanly shows up in earning so just chill out.
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alix: an hour into the u.s. trading session. volume super light. kriti: the s&p 500 higher by .7%. it comes down to the same things that have driven rally year-to-date, microsoft, alphabet, tesla is the biggest volume trade apple lagging just a bit. it is the two year yield you want to keep an eye on. it is not functioning in the
same way that we have come to know in the past year or so. that is an important part of the conversation when it comes to how sustainable tech is. let's go across the atlantic and talk about the economy in europe. you are seeing growth increase and the inflation story perhaps not as bad as it was before. it feeds into the no landing idea that what if this recession we have priced in all of 2022 isn't as bad as we think it is or perhaps isn't there at all? that is something you'll see factor more and more into market conversations, specifically after the cpi number tomorrow. we are looking at a global recession and turnaround. it is the dollar that will show up most. you will see some weakness in the dollar quite a bit but there are technicals at play when it comes to the greenback
specifically. one of the reasons dollar is stalling out is we are under the assumption the fed is coming to the end of their tightening cycle. what if that is not true? something to keep in mind. at on to all that, is the idea of the geopolitics were you were talking about it at the top of the show, that we are just coming off the war of ukraine and that is priced in and now more geopolitics with china. that is creating into the industrials and aerospace. that is helping drive the trade as well. dani: when aliens are in the conversation, most how we should price that in? to that point, free flying objects have been down over north america in as many days, with another reportedly spotted over a chinese port city. fighter jets shot down objects over canada and alaska on and
saturday another over michigan yesterday, less than 10 days after a balloon was downed off the coast of carolina. joining us now is our reporter, nick. what is new is the state of the u.s. shooting them down. why now? why the sudden escalation here? nick: the defense department gave a convincing argument that they fine-tuned the radar more and are looking much more for objects in u.s. airspace since the incursion by the chinese balloon 10 days ago. they are picking up these objects and when they see they pose a risk to civilian aviation or drift toward a sensitive military site of which there are
many scattered around the u.s., they have to make a call on whether to shoot that down. there is no indication whether those three objects shot down in the last three days had anything to china, what is happening now is the u.s. is looking more scrutinizing in airspace closely and we are seeing this pattern. alix: we look at this as another step up of the tensions between the u.s. and china? there is speculation that the markets are not pricing this in. are we underestimating the ramp-up? nick: you are right that it feels very much like tensions only continue to get worse. we had the u.s. really going hard on the idea that this was a chinese surveillance balloon that was part of a global surveillance program and china shot back and said it was a weather balloon. the u.s. shoots down other
objects and we start to see reports in chinese media that there is a balloon drifting off the coast of china and china says the u.s. has sent surveillance blooms. we seem to be in this escalatory spiral. who knows where it will lead with the two countries trading accusations. we are not talking about aircraft carriers boat balloons so it is odd in that way but it definitely seems to be getting worse. alix: thank you very much. that is one risk the other is heading into cpi tomorrow. that is the number. the fed governor michelle bowman said more rate hikes may needed -- be needed. >> we are still far from achieving price stability and i expect it will be necessary to further tighten monetary policy to bring inflation down toward our goal. doing so will likely lead to
some softening in labor market conditions. alix: that was michelle bowman speaking earlier. our question of the day is, what are the unidentified object risks? there are some that we know and some that we don't. how do we deal with that? the former fed governor, randall kroszner, joins us. what is the risk? randall: if the inflation print is higher than expected, people are going to get concerned. they are hoping for deflation of the inflationary balloon and if that is not coming, that is one of the big risks. even if the inflation print is within spec patients or better, as the governor bowman said, it is about the labor market. the fed is very concerned that the price increases are going to be sustained unless we really see a step down in the growth of
the labor market and most recent jobs reports suggests anything but that. dani: there seems to be gratification on the side of powell that we have seen some improvement and there are no cracks in the labor market. do there need to be cracks in the labor market to confirm the trajectory of inflation is moving down? randall: i think that is what the fed is looking for and the most likely outcome. some have called an immaculate disinflation that we get the rate to come down and wage growth to come down without the job market significant we weakening. we have never seen it before. it is possible. it is not just about the cpi report and the other inflation reports, it is also about the
labor market. the fed has made it clear that unless they see inflation on a sustainable and sustained path down to the 2% goal, they are going to keep at it and they will continue to raise rates to the mid-fives at least and hold it there to make sure inflation comes down in a sustainable way. alix: if you are on the fed and the print comes out, what is your worst-case scenario, that it is higher or slows not as much as we were thinking or slows faster? which is the worse outcome for the fed and whether messaging has to be? randall: if it slows significant, that is good. alix: you can make the argument that if it slows significantly than asset prices will rally. randall: if you get inflation coming down significantly and in a sustained way, that is great. it is only one data point.
the fed makes it clear that they don't overreact to anyone data point. i think the most problematic outcome is if inflation is moving up in ways they are not expecting. i think they think they are going to see less pressure on the good side. services will gradually come down and they are hoping the other services which are really driven by the labor market is such an important part of the services sector comes down. if that is not coming down then they have to keep at it and see the labor market crack and that means a recession is much more likely. dani: market has been buying it when powell says rates remain tight for some time. how useless word -- forward guidance?
randall: the markets have not been believing him for a while. he gave the jackson hole speech where he shortened it but said one thing eight times, which is we are going to keep at it. they finally started to accept that a little bit. you can see in the market expectations they are getting to be closer to where the fed is, that rates will stay above 5% for most of this year. it is likely it will stay above 5% or all of this year. i haven't seen much discussion about even when the fed stops raising rates, when you adjust for inflation, that means real just rates will go up as inflation is coming down. so there is continued tightening when the nominal rate is staying constant. i think that is where the recession risk increases towards
the end of the year. alix: if i am reading this right, we are still looking at two cuts on the end of this year. does the fed need to price that out? do they care about what the function is telling them? randall: they are being pretty consistent in messaging and will be consistent in their actions that they are going to keep rates up. if the economy falls off the cliff and there are a lot of other geopolitical things that go on. obviously we are to me about unidentified flying objects and enormous geopolitical tension, so that could lead to that. putting that aside, unless the economy really contracts and inflation really comes down rapidly towards the end of the year, they are going to keep at it and hold because they don't want to have happened what happened in the late 1970's, which is when the fed pivoted to
early and they had raise rates to double-digit -- too early and had raise rates to double digits. dani: you mentioned a fed rate could come from geopolitical tensions. how bad does it have to be for that to be the driver? randall: there certainly is hot or going on with russia and the ukraine right now. i hope there will not be other hot wars that will come online. one never knows and it would be an important pivot. the fed would have to think about what are the economic consequences of significant increase in tensions if there is some intervention somewhere. those would be some things you would take into account and they see that as a big impact on the economy. alix: what do you make about
people talking about a vibe session? you see that and you worry about it and we can see in current expectations numbers, but the data is still good. not just talking about the on employment numbers, there are signs in different areas of the market. even housing seems to have found a bottom. what does the fed do with that? randall: so much of what the fed is dealing with is the expectations, not just actual inflation, but where do they think it is going to be going. that is why the fed doesn't have to raise at double-digit levels because if you look at inflation expectations, haven't gotten out of control. that is good given how inflation got out of control over the last year and is starting to come down. so it is always about the expectations and about where people think things are going.
that is what infects consumption and savings -- affects consumption and savings. dani: the vibe is important. so great to get your thoughts ahead of tomorrow's release. coming up, california is able to borrow more cheaply than florida, texas, and half a dozen other states that voted for donald trump in 2020. the key is esg.
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keeping you up-to-date, here is the first word. tens of thousands of israelis protesting against government plans to reduce the power of the judiciary. there on the verge of constitutional and social combat. they want to make it easier for the state to appoint judges and limit the supreme court's authority to strike down legislation. german chancellor olaf scholz faces more turbulence after a state election in which all three ruling parties lost support and one crushed out of the city parliament. the main opposition party at the national level emerged as the clear winner after sunday's vote in the german capital. they beat his social democrats by 10 points. global news 24 hours a day, online and at quicktake on bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries.
i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. alix: it costs more for texas and florida tomorrow then california. this comes from the latest opinion piece from bloomberg news and met with her says "if social and mean state control of reduction, distribution and exchange of goods and services, than florida and texas fit the description." that is an interesting piece. what is the overall esa's -- nieces? -- what is your overall thesis? >> texas and florida are aaa rated. california does not have that rating. not bad but nowhere near that. in california today, consistently borrowing at interest rates that are well below florida and texas. that, if you like divergence,
widened dramatically when both texas and florida, the states publicly said, we don't want any banks that are in any way favoring esg to be underwriting our bonds. and if specifically in the case of texas, they didn't like the banks that had a view of a firearms, automatic weapons that have unfortunately made a mess of our schools. these banks have been excluded. since that point in 2022, the cost to the taxpayers of florida and texas go up every time they borrow, compared to california. alix: is it because banks hold out so they aren't the underwriters? matt: if you exclude jp morgan, citigroup, goldman sachs, to name three, which in the past five years, that is more than one third of all the
underwriting in the united states of america municipal market, you are taking out a huge amount of liquidity and picking up distribution as well, so that is understandable why you would see rates perhaps go up dramatically at that point. alix: are there other factors? matt: states have different ways of treating taxes. there is not an income tax in florida and texas states. that is different from california. even when you acknowledge these differences in taxes, you still see the dramatic widening of borrowing costs go up since 2022. dani: good to speak with you. it gets back to some other questions about disney, for example, the politics there. what is the playbook for companies trying to weigh the broader esg the shareholder
needs and political risk emerging from these types of discussions and laws? matt: it is unfortunate that companies are put in this situation because companies are responding to their customers mostly. if you think about disney, the largest employer in florida, doing things that it's customers and its employees wanted to do with respect to treating people with equity and inclusion, for example. the state of florida has pushed back against diversity and inclusion, which is something disney is responding to. it is a bit cynical if you think about it this way because disney is the largest employer in florida. alix: are the rating agencies going to catch up to this?
matt: companies rate the states based on their economies and so forth. it has very little to do with social issues. the state of florida and texas are pursuing a social agenda, literally a social agenda or they don't like commercial banks acknowledging that diversity and inclusion is for example part of the pursuit of excellence. they don't believe that, but there is ample evidence the longer we live that diversity and inclusion is part of the pursuit of excellence. these policies by both texas and florida are regressive and hearken back to the days when both of those states, if you remember, they have racist policies. there is a bit of nostalgia for the racism that pervaded florida 50 years ago and racism that
dani: a strange start to the week for trading. two big set pieces in the way of cpi. it has been called a barren wasteland when it comes to data reports. european equities moving higher .9%. volume is one third lower than they usually are. why would you want to put a lot of risk on the table with those cpr numbers in the u.s. could change things up quite a bit? we will get european gdp tomorrow. in the meantime, we had an upgrade from the european
commission to the outlook. two-year yields in germany at a 2008 high. overall to this picture of a brightening outlook in europe. we will talk about that w withei li at -- with wei li. ♪ get help reaching your goals with j.p. morgan wealth plan, a new tool in the chase mobile® app. use it to set and track your goals, big and small... and see how changes you make today... could help put them within reach. from your first big move to retiring poolside and the other goals along the way wealth plan can help get you there. j.p. morgan wealth management.
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