tv Bloomberg Daybreak Australia Bloomberg February 19, 2023 5:00pm-6:00pm EST
>> welcome to daybreak australia. >> we are coming down to asia's major market opens. >> the top stories this hour. ties between washington and beijing remain strained and secretary blinken exchanges long -- blunt messages in munich. >> north korea fires and other missile prompting the u.s. and allies to hold joint drills and a show of force against pyongyang. >> it is a big week for asian central banks. our kids bracing for a slew of economic data. take a look at the close on friday. monday away on holidays but the picture was mixed. the s&p 500 losing ground for a second session. a little photo bargain-hunting coming in from investors
focusing on the narrative we are seeing a more resilient economy. but a soft lender might be possible but that implies we might see the fed remaining aggressive. the treasury curve has been a picture of resilience when it comes to the 10 year yield being above the 380 level. the two year yield above the 460 level. we have the dollar close to erasing all the losses for the year. we are seeing pressure on crude prices. it has been that dynamic between are going to see a more energy demand coming in from china, a more resilient economy, also when supplies are piling up. annabelle: there are so many questions. not just in terms of what we see from china with where the fed spirit there is a prospect of a no landing coming in where we have elevated inflation in the coming few months. we are mixed but muted. that would be the two key
signals we are watching. new zealand just online looking like this. australia going for a flat start today. in the currency space very see the greenback getting a little bit stronger against its g10 peers. also what is happening with the kiwi dollar because it is coming into a fourth weekly loss. a lot of focus on the rbnz. it is the key economic decision with the bank of korea in asia. what economists are expecting, the 10th straight hike steered even though we have seen signs labor market is starting to cool. you still have inflation levels building from the recent floods. when you take a look at what is happening with the two-year you can see taking a look at this terminal chart we are coming back to the february lows. that tells us traders are pricing for a lower benchmark coming in just under 5.1%.
perhaps we do see supply chain pressures from those disruptions, from the floods. cyclone gabrielle as well. that the economic weakness could force the rbnz to rethink where its peak rate ends up. haidi: we are focused on the disruptions from political tensions paid would a we get it has been when it comes to geopolitics and diplomatic tensions. we had the highly debated meeting between antony blinken and china's top diplomat. it was an unusual readout i thought from that meeting from the u.s. side. quite forceful language and in line with what we heard from president i than last week saying he would make no apologies but seeking competition, not conflict. we heard antony blinken winning against one we against providing with weights about his invasion of ukraine as we get to the one-year mark of the conflict rebuking him over the alleged by a balloon incident that set off these heightened tensions between the u.s. and china saying the u.s. had information
china was considering whether or not to give russia assistance. at the same time we see these developments over north korea as well. shery: really not going to help with geopolitical tensions when it comes to the intercontinental ballistic missile. i was talking about how oil was under pressure but we continue to watch oil prices because we are seeing more tensions around israel this week claiming i ran for an attack on an oil tanker this month and not to mention the international nuclear inspectors have detected and radium -- to take a uranium needed for nuclear weapons in iran. nuclear -- let's bring in tony from washington. go with us -- go through with us what happened with the blinken meeting and what that means for u.s. china relations. > it certainly shows even when the u.s. and china set down
to talk now which it is or has been a front moment these past few weeks, that these talks don't necessarily relieve the tensions that have built up. certainly not in the short term. as you say the tone from antony blinken who went on a number of u.s. tv shows to give interviews shortly afterwards interpreting what he had told china, the tone was very forceful and in its own way uncompromising. he talked about biden saying no apology. web lincoln said when asked was china did not apologize for the overflight of what the u.s. has called this spy balloon. that gives you an idea of
neither side backing down. certainly the level of rhetoric we are seeing here. haidi: it has been a busy weekend because we see this tit-for-tat military moves from the u.s. and its allies. pyongyang as well. we know they were going to increase these military drills anyway but was this a direct response? >> yes. there have been separate aerial drills or air force drills by the u.s. with japan and south korea after north korea launched the icbm on a test flight. of course it is in line with what has been building up over only the last few months again in terms of the u.s. wanting to increase cooperation or pledging to increase cooperation with japan and south korea would terribly.
-- south korea militarily. at the same time the icbm launch played into the munich knitting between blinken and -- meeting between blinken and china because blinken said in so many words once again repeated the u.s. stance that china has influence over north korea and should use it to keep the tensions on that front down. this is after some very assertive language from pyongyang about the u.s. basically mocking the u.s.'s attempts or statements calling for some kind of talks and denuclearization which also showed on that front the tensions are certainly not getting less.
haidi: a round up of all the geopolitical stories that have dominated this weekend. let's take a look at the market set up. we see the reality check weighing on risk appetite. let's bring in bloomberg's chief rights correspondent -- achieve rates correspondent. what is your take away from what we sell over the weekend and how that plays into the risk mood? does this improve things? it is not much of a catalyst what it comes to the china rally. >> i think what i can do is remind everybody who put money into china in the last while, the risks that there are that -- there is talk of the potential for sanctions of some court -- some sort of thing specified which also makes it worse. if you have a profit on the table you might want to go to i want to take some of those off because i'm not sure how this is going to develop or you might take the view there is always going to be nasty words being
thrown around but the two sides have too much to lose for that to be taken to the next step. it does add to the concerns that were there any way about the china reopening's further can it go, the immediate boost and there is still the potential for impact. there is some concern part of what has been going on has been good old-fashioned stimulus. lots of factories, lots of heavy industrial projects which are exactly the sort of projects china can turn around and say we did not want to duties. we wanted to do high-tech stuff. yeah, china like a lot of risk assets at the moment is that a fairly crucial point. the u.s. china tensions are a specific case where you can see
geopolitics adding sufficiently to the risk concerns that you might have not immediate impact should in the coming weeks. you might see that helped to cool down some of the optimism there has been about chinese equities and other assets. shery:shery: we are watching where the bank of japan is going for an indication of where assets could go pick we are going to get more indication when there is a parliamentary hearing this week. how traders positioning? we are hearing more warnings toward the boj not to shift too early. >> the japanese bond market is kind frozen in place. we have kuroda as the twilight of his tenure. he is -- he has lost much of his potency and everybody is
wondering -- we have these hearings at the end of the week that should reveal a lot on that front. some realization there is a severe risk if he was to go to hard to fast. that is part of what has happened with the yen the young got strong -- with the yen the yen got strong when his candidacy got floated and the press. it is a very tricky set of circumstances the bank of japan has. more than half of the bond market owns most of those key 10 year bonds that matter so much. it has been almost more often than not those tenure bonds have not traded. that tells you a lot of what you need to know about where japan's markets are and how uncertain
the outlook is and because of that i would argue the likelihood that a waiter will when he has in parliament he is going to be talking a conciliatory gradualist game because nobody is going to want him saying i'm going to raise rates as soon as i can come may. that is not the situation japan is in. inflation is at levels that might start to make people uncomfortable but it is not so much the case they are going to want to see radical action. in particular as long as the yen does not get too weak to quickly that seems to be of the main political point. haidi: garfield reynolds here in sydney. let's get over to vonnie quinn with the first word headlines.
vonnie: thank you and good morning. china's top diplomats says beijing and the european union should prepare for a meeting of their leaders. he urged his e.u. counterpart to help bring bilateral exchanges back to pre-pandemic levels as soon as possible. at a meeting on the sidelines of the munich security conference the officials discussed ukraine with him saying china is promoting talks for a political solution. microsoft has agreed to give kyiv free access to its computing platform. microsoft, apple and amazon had a presence at the conference over the weekend to the bind administration says tech belongs and any conversation about security. monitors in a ran has detected uranium enriched levels just below that needed for a nuclear weapon. is the second time this month they have detected suspicious activity. the iaea will report to board of governors as appropriate. the cost of cycle and gabrielle
which devastated parts of new zealand last week is expected to soar into billions of dollars. the finance minister told tv nz that it may take time to get a clearer picture. he says it could be on par with the 2011 earthquakes. financing arrangements across the adani group conglomerate have sent a fresh chill through esg markets as investors wake up to a new risk. norway's largest pension fund has dumped its entire hold of adani green energy shares due to concerns eight might inadvertently have helped finance of the world's most polluting activities. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i'm vonnie quinn. this is bloomberg. shery: still ahead, almost one year into russia's war in ukraine we will take a look at the likelihood of a prolonged conflict as kyiv presses the
west for more ammunition and sanctions. why watching economic data is key for investors ahead of the fed's next meeting. this is bloomberg. ♪ so, am i still on track to reach my goals? the plan we created can withstand uncertainty. lately everybody has opinions about the economy, but i count on personal financial advice. my ameriprise advisor understands the markets and me. she knows my goals and can help me reach them with confidence. the markets may fluctuate but you're still on track. no wonder more than 9 out of 10 clients are likely to recommend us. because advice worth listening to is advice worth talking about.
australia. taking a look at the week ahead come on monday economist expect chinese banks will hold prime lending rates steady after the people's bank of china kept its key rate unchanged earlier this month. we'll be getting the rba's meeting that it's on tuesday. this comes after governor philip lowe faced tough questions from lawmakers and suggestions his board is risking a recession through aggressive interest rate hikes. the reserve tank of new zealand is poised to deliver a 10th straight hike wednesday as the country battles with the hottest inflation in decades. economist expect the bank of korea to hold its key rate on thursday ending an 18 month tightening cycle. g20 ministers begin a three-day week. haidi: will also be on the lookout for major company earnings out the major pacific and the u.s. this week. hsbc and alibaba are some of the
biggest names to report. shery: our next guest says economic data does not move in straight lines. investors have one more u.s. cpi print to watch before the next fed meeting. joining us is the chief investment officer of a capital partners. how much of a difference will that make? i find it interesting the narrative now that markets are being supportive of the fact markets are resilient when that could mean the fed stays higher for longer. >> the first sign of warning in february and apparently the market brushed it off at first was the hot jobs number that said january created half a million jobs in the u.s. i think that needs in asterisk next to it. there is a lot of massaging of those numbers that try to account for seasonal adjustments and models being what they are, they are not the truth. they are a reflection of the world.
you have to take all of this information, cpi, unemployment rate, all the numbers that seem very precise. they are very imprecise and the fed is using them to make decisions that is where the cautionary tale comes in. shery: when you are looking at the data combined are you seeing a soft landing ahead and what does that mean for your investment mindset? are we talking about or upside for some of those stocks that have run up a lot in the last year? >> sure. i think some of the favorites will never come back. especially the ones that benefited from covid. let's just pick on peloton. that is probably not going to return to its glory days. there are companies that will probably even outgrow what they did in the recent past. that is because their products and services are used. it is a world that is going to
grow. never we are any times like these where we don't know the direction of the market, the direction of the economy and we have the geopolitical concerns building up, people get nervous and don't have a longer term view. i think that is the healthy way to go. plan for a long-term holding as opposed to trying to trade your way to riches. haidi: you have been a long-term investor when it comes to tech. that has never really gone out of style for you. what are you liking at the moment in terms of still being able to find some value? >> i like the semi's because i still believe in the power of 5g to be able to allow companies in particular, not as surly consumers, expand how they drive productivity or their employees. i really think that is going to be a driver of new devices, new software and the hardware that
supports it. that is what i like semi's. i especially like amd right now. something that helps people make semi conductors, a company called synopsys. haidi: ai is obviously as we have spoken about where everyone wants to be to the point of over exuberance and perhaps more about the possibility and potential of this rather than the current application. do you have different ways you like to get exposure to that? >> again i would say the best way is through buying the delivery mechanism which is silicon. nvidia, it could be the way to go. there are a lot of companies out there that are overpromising what ai can do. i was a software engineer. guess what field i was in. ai. i am encouraged by a lot of things but discouraged by people
>> uncertain environment for ipos and we think that may continue in the second half of this year. i would note we do see significant demand. >> it is pretty good the china markets reopening, a lot of supply of key components will come out of china. >> over the last two decades there has been little money spent. >> we fill in the -- we feel
inflation is peaking in our sector but we will not rub lease see the full benefit of those inflationary pressures dissipate until the next six to 12 months. >> as one of the world's largest gold producing companies we believe the long-term fundamentals remain strong and we believe the future for copper is very bright. haidi: some of the guests on their earnings coming out of australia. new zealand's finance minister grant robertson says he expects the cost of the devastating cyclone that ravaged the north island to be under the multibillion spear the australian treasury will be proposing further protections to safeguard retirement savings in his speech later on monday. it is a jampacked week of earnings starting in australia. lou steel is due as well as adelaide banks. will be watching for some of the
stock moves. scope forecasting underlying ebit up to 378 million u.s. dollars. getting exposure to the infrastructure push in the u.s. don't miss our exclusive interview with the ceo of bluescope. will be talking through those numbers and the outlook. shery: coming up next, we take a closer look at new revelations about adani group finance. this is bloomberg. ♪
i'm vonnie quinn. one day after north korea's intercontinental missile ballistic test, the u.s. bomber is escorted by fighter jets as tokyo took part in a separate exercise. pyongyang issued warnings after its missile landed in waters within japan's exclusive economic zone on saturday. according to some reports, sri lanka's upcoming local elections are likely to be postponed due to a lack of funds. a colombo newspaper says the election commission will seek a delay for the top court, setting difficulties around printing ballots and lack of fuel for shipping. earlier this month, the cabinet spokesman says cash flow issues may affect local elections scheduled for march 9. public support for japanese prime minister fumio kishida has edged down after a former aide made discriminatory remarks regarding the lgbtq community this month.
and opinion poll shows his cabinet approving rating fell by one percentage point from the previous month to 26%. he's fired the aid and apologized for the remarks. the number of people passing through hong kong's airport has jumped in january thanks to eased travel restrictions two. point one million passengers reported making it a 200% growth from the same period last year. traffic to and from southeast asia and japan reported the most significant increase. south korea preparing a domestic rocket development program following the implosion of its partnership with russia. they were -- revoked a partnership with russia in favor of a european ally. the korean vice science minister says his country cannot ignore the growing space industry. >> the space industry is growing at an exclusive pace. from an industrial perspective,
we can't ignore it. it's also important for national security as the competition for space is heating up among nations. vonnie: global news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i'm vonnie quinn and this is bloomberg. shery: a little more on north korea. we are hearing comments from a north korean official through the state media. saying that pyongyang says u.s. force movement is becoming more active and north korea will respond accordingly if u.s. movements pose concerns. we know the u.s. condemned the icbm launch by north korea and has held aerial drills with south korea and japan in a show of force this weekend. north korean officials say it is up to the u.s. how often the pacific is used as a shooting range so we are getting fishel comments coming from north korean officials.
let's turn to india. we are seeing signs investors in indian stocks are moving beyond adani groups concerns. fairly bullish now again? reporter: that's right. when you look at what and local managers are seen, they expect a key benchmark, the sensex, to reach a all-time high. we are actually heading back into that direction again. this is down to strong domestic demand expected to boost corporate earnings. the overseas funds are starting to come back into the equity market. it is worth around $3.1 trillion. essentially what some investors are saying is don't treat the adani issue as something emblematic for the entire indian stock market. these are actually two separate
areas. the government standards of many indian companies are on part of what we seem globally and having governance issues is not intrinsic to what happens in india. the slump we've seen so far in adani companies, glasses of north of $130 billion but it could end up not being a stumbling block either. it's interesting what you hear from international investors like mark mobius thing actually the hindenburg research could have an unintended side effect. it has given more exposure to the adani stock market and indian investors, and he's become more bullish as result, as is looking to buy infrastructure and health care stocks. haidi: the adani crisis has been a real wake-up call for est investors. just another way to look at the crisis. reporter: this is the flipside. you have the investment story,
but the real issue comes to when you look at the collateral web for companies in the adani group because this presents the real headache for any investor out there. norway's largest pension fund, this is a good or dimpled -- good example. there are nobles part of the empire, -- renewables part of the empire, it could have inadvertently financed some of the world's most polluting activities by mistake. in a february public filing, it was made clear adani is using stock from companies as collateral in a could it helping to finance a big coal project in australia, the carmichael coal mine. this is a real issue for esg investors. we did have research saying 500 esg funds in europe actually have exposure to adani group activities in one way or another.
also into the msci, they're giving the adani a rating of a and they need to look at it more closely. haidi: the world bank says it had a good start in discussions with member countries on easing the debt burden of lower and middle income economies. the outgoing president told us more about those negotiations ahead of the g20 finance ministers meeting this week in bangalore. >> it was good this morning, first meeting of the group to bring the debtors and creditors together. china participated and that is good as a starting point for the discussion. they talked about the obstacles to getting to some of the debt restructurings that are needed. it was a good conversation this morning. one of my goals has been to narrow the same conversation to get to the next steps.
so the g20's meeting and separately we are having a meeting with the imf and indian finance minister to begin to try to push for a faster timetable so countries can really see light at the end of the tunnel on debt restructuring and debt relief. >> we've talked about trying a couple times already. i wonder about transparency because bloomberg circled sure but from the g20 last week. he says china has to tell us what the debts are. do we know how much indebtedness there is right now to china? > reconciliation of debt is one point of the process and it needs to go faster. that is right. that affects countries like ethiopia. there debtors and creditors are
writing down what they think the debt is in reconciling the numbers. that is just one of the items on the agenda. one is to form the creditors committee and get the creditors to meet at the beginning of the process and share information more quickly. there are a number of steps that can be taken to speed up the process. i was glad to see this morning, china is participating, but is also seeming to move slowly on this. >> we heard that ghana, zambia and ethiopia are working into the common framework. who is in the wings? >> there are other countries under pressure. some are middle income countries like sri lanka, which is important to india because it is close. it is important to china because they are one of the big creditors. there are a number of countries, i don't want to name the ones,
but the list is long of maybe 40 countries that are under severe pressure on the debt side. the context of this as you know is slow global growth. it is even stagflation if we want to think of it that way. people in developing countries, that means prices are really high for food and fertilizer and now interest rates are much higher and it is creating the pressure on debt and on the budgets of various governments including for climate finance shery:. world bank president david malpass speaking to david westin. coming up next, one year into russia's war in ukraine, we discuss the likelihood of a prolonged conflict as kyiv presses the west for more weapons, and munitions and sanctions. this is bloomberg. ♪
shery: this week marks one year since russia's invasion of ukraine the conflict has had far-reaching implications, sparking an energy crisis, threatening supplies of key foods and threatening economic turmoil far beyond ukraine's borders. tom mackenzie reports. reporter: russia invaded ukraine in the predawn hours of february
24, 2022. this after president vladimir putin spent months willing up troops along the border. the unprovoked attack sparked the biggest flow of refugees since world war ii, over 8 million ukrainians have fled the war. 10 so thousands have died or been wounded amid unspeakable brutality. the impact extends far beyond the human tragedy. the fighting between two of the world's biggest food producers hampered exports from the region. together, russia and ukraine accounted for a quarter of global week trade and half of sunflower seeds and oil. prices around the world surged but have since eased back the conflict also caused the biggest european energy crisis in decades especially in germany, forcing countries to cut reliance on russian exports. before the war, more than 40% of eu imports of natural gas came
from russia and over one quarter of oil imports. no longer. the soaring prices helped fuel the fastest inflation in the euro's history forcing the ecb into its most aggressive series of rate hikes ever. a year later, the war's shows no signs of ending although ukraine has made advances against russian forces using -- weapons supplied by the u.s. and europe. it will take hundreds of billions of dollars to one day rebuild the nation. what comes next from a large part depend on russia's moves, western support, and ukrainian determination led by a president who has become a household name around the world. haidi: bloomberg's tom mackenzie right there. the more pressing question right now is whether the u.s. and european defense industries can support the fighting in the long run. gorana grgic is a senior
lecturer at the university of sydney and joins us now. as we get to this one your point of the ongoing conflict with no real signs of an end in sight, i'm wondering what your key observations are for what lies ahead and how allies will continue to be committed. >> i'm actually speaking from europe, i am in berlin at the moment. in germany here, we just saw the end of the munich security conference where it was very clear that when it comes to western support for ukraine, there is an unequivocal message that the collective west, the u.s., european allies, countries, the pacific that are aligned with these countries, are firmly behind ukraine. the real question is whether there is sufficient ammunition
with the defense industries, whether they can sustain the supply of both ammunition as well as general weaponry needed in the site that still shows no signs of relight -- relenting or ccing in the near term. the question has been resolved but the question now if the material is one that needs to be answered and needs to be answered very urgently. haidi: what weighting does the impact of china have? one of the topics that was really pushed was against this idea of beijing potentially providing assistance. >> it really depends how
credibly we can estimate these efforts on the part of the chinese leadership, knowing that a year ago in the meeting leading up to the invasion of ukraine, china and russia announced they would be in this no limits strategic partnership. ever since then, we have not seen a lot of signs that would point otherwise. while china has offered at times these messages of moderation, a player -- apparently saying it would not stand for any escalation that would include for instance the use of tactical nuclear weapons, we have not necessarily seen moves that would force russia's hand in a way that would go towards the negotiation table rather than escalation on the battle clear
-- battlefield which is what we see in donbass. shery: what you're saying is we will continue to see intensifying intentions, the escalating military battles right now, and perhaps a prolonged struggle right now? >> at the moment, basically there is a dispute of where we are in terms of the russian offensive in eastern ukraine. i think a lot of the official's the nato alliance, talking about the secretary adored the leading countries, have said this is already something that is underway so that russia is very much ramping up its presence and offensive in donbass and this will provoke and necessitate ukrainian response. some are saying maybe we have not seen assertive -- this is
the early days. all the estimates are that this will get much worse before it gets any better. shery: what sort of response are we going to see from allies? the u.k. prime minister rishi sunak was already talking about a attentional security guarantee -- potential security guarantee for ukraine. >> we have seen different sorts of taboos over what sort of weaponry would be provided to ukraine had been broken and in the next couple weeks we will see the delivery of the first german tanks onto ukrainian battlefields, something that probably a year ago would have been unimaginable. of course the ukrainian government has been petitioning for much more. talking about different types of
missiles that would have their range of potentially aircraft and similar but in terms of the security guarantees, there's no doubt once it comes to a stage of negotiation of any start -- sort, there would be no doubt support incredible commitment to make sure any commitments that are made are backed up by support from western allies. shery: gorana grgic, senior lecturer at university of sydney with her views on what is happening in ukraine right now. tune into bloomberg radio to hear more from the days big newsmakers and get in-depth analysis from the daybreak team, now broadcasting live from our studio in hong kong. listen on the up, bloomberg plus or berg radio -- bloomberg radio. stay with us. ♪
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put a ballpark number on this, in the region of about $8 billion u.s., around the same cost to rebuild christchurch after the 2011 earthquake. this is a different scenario, a lot of agricultural land destroyed. the area of hawkes bay is famous for vineyards. all of this will add to food price inflation. it will be likely the reserve bank of new zealand will make note of the stores -- disaster when it meets wednesday. it creates a problem for them and we have seen rate hike bets pull back. the prime minister says he's for shadowing some big calls on the budget which we won't get toward the end of the year but is challenging joe biden, with build back better, saying the infrastructure was not enough.
shery: this is also human tragedy most of all. what do we know of the people who remain displaced and the death toll? reporter: the death toll stands at 11 at the moment but is almost certain to rise. they new zealand herald reported as of yesterday still thousands of people unaccounted for. when you look at the scale of the disaster particularly on the east base of the island, some homes were buried up to the roofs in silt. there was a 30 foot high wall of water that came down so there was a concern people might have been washed out to sea and might not be discovered for a long time. communication is also an issue. some service has been restored to the area although we heard from vodafone, more than once, the generator from a site has been stolen and then
communications go down again. power still out in a lot of areas and will take some days or weeks to be restored. shery: here's a quick check of the latest business flash headlines. a malaysian minister suggested that rare earths could keep units in the ground so long that the way strips out. they failed to get approval for a unit that malaysian official says radioactive waste. the unit could continue if the waste is taken away. facebook parent meta is launching a subscription service that includes a account verification badges and increased very -- visibility. it is set to be primarily targeted at content creators. the subscription will cost three dollars more if through apple's ios. meta is testing the product first in australia and new zealand later this week. a qatari group has hired bank of
america as one of the advisors for a bid to buy manchester united. the effort is being led by the royal family member, who's also the chairman of qatar islamic bank. he said he wants to return the club to its former glory on and off the pitch. bloomberg has reported the opening qatari bid with value men united at $6 billion. that's it for "bloomberg daybreak australia." daybreak asia is next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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