tv Closing Bell CNBC April 5, 2012 3:00pm-4:00pm EDT
we have the "closing bell" after the break. we hope you enjoined the chicago version of "street signs." sometimes the shows move about freely. thank you forebearing with us through th "closing bell" is starting now. hi, everybody. welcome to the final stretch. i'm maria bartiromo with the new york stock exchange. >> and i'm bill griffeth. kind of a chopping day. today is the last day. tomorrow we're closed. the dow fell out of the gate this morning and then rallied midday only to lose steam in the home stretch at tomorrow's jobs report. it would be the third straight down day for the dow making this the worst week for the average so far this year. a lot of buzz about
facebook. the high-profile ipo will list on the nasdaq when the company makes its public debut in may. this comes on the heels of the new york stock exchange and market system. full coverage and analysis straight ahead in the "closing bell." >> a lot more on all of those stories. first, take a look at the major averages. we enter the final stretch with the dow jones industrial negative, high about 30 points. we're bouncing off of the lows as we approach this final hour at 13,045. check the nasdaq with all of the news in technology and facebook, it is up at 9 points on nasdaq a third of a percent. 3,077. s&p bouncing off of the lows but still down two points there. less than an hour to go. taking a quick look at today's market themes. investors are weighing the prospect of the u.s. economy versus the latest out of europe.
wall street remains cautious with the latest headlines out of spain which some fear could be the next greece. we are expecting recessionary numbers. the better than expected jobless claims showing some support. all eyes turning to the march jobs report. it's expected to show that the economy grew 203,000 jobs last month. we know that we had a pretty good number on the heels of the adp number. that is what is going to be the mid-catalyst for the market. given the gains in the market, you would expect the earnings to grow. the s&p 500 is expected to show less than 1% of earnings growth. right now three sectors out of the s&p 500 sectors are actually expected to post earnings growth of better than 1%. those three sectors, industrials, and a lot of expectations given the market
gains and not expecting too much earnings growth. another story making the headlines today, sources tell cnbc, facebook has chosen to list its ipo. it will be listed at nasdaq. let's see what kind of impact that will have. bob pisani is on the set with us. also, kayla, scott wapner, and scott kessler. kayla, let's kick it off with you. what do we know about the facebook ipo other than it's going to be listed on nasdaq? >> it's quite a contentious battle been going on for years. it's been in the pipeline for some time and became a reality about one year ago when they did pass that 500 shareholder. facebook wanted to be a blue chip. it wants to be in your retirement portfolios and wants
to be held by the large cap fund managers. that leads some to believe that it would be listed for its part. we have an ad campaign that launched earlier this year talking about all of the pan dora, demand media, linkedin. we have the ad. it says, who will be the next to list on the big board and then it says find us on facebook with a big facebook logo making a punch to say here are all of these social companies that are here. we are the new place to list. as far as money goes, bob has talked about this as well, it's not really about the money as far as listing goes. there's only a 25,000 dlars different rengs initial but where you are seeing the money branch out is the trading fees. the maximum you'll pay each year to trade on the nasdaq where on
the nyse you can pay up to $500,000. you see the listing fees at the nyse is 250,000. at nasdaq is it's $225,000. it gets less expensive when you're talking about trading, maria. >> long faces at the new york stock exchange. and no comment, by the way. >> no, there's been no comment and no official statement. let me comment on kayla's thing. everyone agrees there's two things where they don't care about. where they ring the opening bell. number two, i don't think it's a big issue. nobody has -- what they care about, what matters to a company like facebook, i keep hearing the whole kohl branding idea. you've got a groupon out there listing with nasdaq. nasdaq says, we're going to help you with your marketing efforts and kick in money. if they do a pitch to starbucks, we'll say we're listed on
nasdaq. that's what branding is. >> that was a pretty good ad from the new york stock exchange. >> i i bet they would have wanted to get the follow through exactly has nasdaq offered. they only found out later incorrectly. that's what i'd like to know right now. >> no details coming out. we're going to get a little more information nasdaq declining to comment as well. they don't have the floor, the balance canny, the giant screen in times square and have a lot that they can do on the market site itself even though it's a smaller piece of real estate. >> scott kessler, what's your tame on this? looking at this decision, do you have concerns? what's your take away in terms of facebook going on the nasdaq?
>> i don't know if it makes a lot of difference to most investors out there. historically and traditionally, people think of technology and high growth. they think of the nasdaq and even though kayla articulated a number of, say, social companies that have listed on the new york stock exchange, it's our contention and observation that a majority of the high-tech companies out there and those companies in social realms are listed, in fact, on the nasdaq. >> will, linkedin, pandora, they are not slouches out there. >> that's true. >> the nyse, at one point all of the big tech companies listed on nacátáip r(t&háhp &hc% it's almost 50/50. it's not clear who has won. >> do you have any sense of why? >> i think the biggest thing
that the nasdaq had to offer is legacy. when you look at steve jobs and bill gates and michael dell and larry page and sergey and a lot of the people that you would look at and say that mark zuckerberg is in that ilk, i think that goes a long way. >> that's a good point. >> i would disagree a little bit with bob as well. i don't know, bob, that it is neck-and-neck. it's the biggest listing out there. the game in social media is now over between these two companies. facebook is on the nasdaq. it was the biggest fish and the nasdaq happened to catch it and i don't think we can underestimate that. >> let's check on this. i'm talking about recent tech listings in the social media area. let's go back six or eight months. i'll crunch those numbers. >> they have gotten their numbers. when you look at groupon and zynga and now facebook, it's a huge deal for the nasdaq.
let's not forget this comes on the heels as well of the new york stock exchange and the deutsch deal going through. it's not been a great time perhaps. >> one criticism that was picked up about the nasdaq was volatility. when you have a primarily electronic trading system, critics were saying, hey, the nyse is more of a human-based trading system, even with all of the high frequency trading. they will say, we'll limit the volatility. you look at the social ideas and they jump 100% on day one. one of the claims of the nyse is that they would limit the volatility. the nasdaq has not proven that there's increased volatility there. but that is one -- >> with the volume the way it is -- >> reducing volatility. >> volatility and volume so weak recently. scott kessler, you get the last word here. give me your take on what you've seen in terms of s.e.c. filings.
people wondering why this period is limdifferent than the last t around when we saw vibrancy. these are real businesses today versus what we saw in the '90s? >> yeah, maria. there's no question. you and i were around and focused on this particular area back then and now as well. look, face book is a much more larger and successful company and in 2000 and 2001, i would just say we've been thinking about yahoo! over the last day. if you look at facebook, say, revenue per employee or net income per employee, it's a lot higher than yahoo!'s and more comparable to google. >> thank you, everybody. we have crunched data and here's a look at some of the top offerings listed on nasdaq, excluding closed-in funds.
charter communication, november owe # 9 and $2.3 billion. verisk analytics, $1.9 billion. google $18.7 billion. >> wow, that sounds tiny, doesn't it? >> yes. and yandex and 1$1.3 billion. >> the top three offerings by the nasdaq excluding facebook are enphase energy at $53.8 million and cafe press, $85.5 million. and ipos, gaslog at $329 million
and rexnord at $426.3 million. >> just to back up what bob just said, this year eight technology companies three technology ipos. it's been an up and down day so far with 48 minutes to go. the dow is down 32 points. one of the worst performing stocks on the street, after issuing earnings forecast. >> can the high-end retail industry nordstrom keep generating profits like that port foel yo? we'll look at that coming up. and a report card on jcpenney's pricing strategy. as we head to the break,
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welcome back. 45 minutes to go in the trading day, the trading week. let's get a quick market check on the dow. it's on track for the biggest weekly decline. concerns about europe over the long holiday weekend, markets are closed tomorrow for passover and the easter holiday. alcoa is the biggest loser today ahead of the earnings. kraft and ibm and at&t are the laggards. >> after the world's largest sales down 12% and british wine
business and fiscal year constellation gave an earnings outlook that missed estimates. the street was looking for $2.23 and they are guiding about $1.93 to $2.03. how do they plan to turn things around, robert sands is the man in charge. he joins us in a first on cnbc interview. good to see you sir, welcome back. >> thanks. good to be here. >> you're in an investment period. what you're trying to do is create new brands, especially here in the united states, and you're doing that at the expense of earnings right now, yes? >> yeah. we actually had a pretty strong fourth quarter on a comparable basis. we were up quite a bit. and we grew depletions which is sales to retail very strongly 7% growth on depletions in the fourth quarter and that's really due to investments that we're making in brand building which we intend to carry into our next
fiscal year so we're actually pleased with where we are at. we certainly know that our guidance for this year and on the other hand we think we're making the right investments behind the business for the midterm. >> at least one analyst was especially disappointed by your lower guidance when you factor in the idea that you're in the middle of a stock buyback program as well. you're planning to buy back $600 million worth of stock that takes that much of the float off the market and that theoretically should help improve your earnings. he was disappointed. he said, boy, without the share of buyback, things will look worse. >> well, we announced a billion dollars in buybacks and in all likelihood we would buy back in all likelihood 650 billion this year.
that will impact positively our eps. that doesn't have any effect on our ebit. so yes in theory without the stock buyback the eps guidance would have been a few cents lower. >> you know, the wine industry is notoriously fragmented. unlike the beer business, fewer brands, more land loyalty, you don't have that in the wine industry. you're creating new brands and want to grow the brands that are existing here. do you need to see more consolidation to really make headwinds in -- or to make headway in gaining new market share in this business? >> no, i don't really think so. you know, being a large wine company, the largest premium company, we benefit from having a big and well-known consumer brands like robert mondavi and blackstone, for instance. so we sort of benefit from the fact that we're not playing in
the most fragmented part of the business or, let me put it this way. we don't rely on it. we have brands that we think will drive our performance in the future. >> mr. sands, good to see you. thank you for joining us. coming up, another james bond shaken and stirred in the new bond film said to be released later this year and i cannot wait. dow jones industrial is down 30 points. oil prices rebounding from a seven-week low. is oil a bargain at these levels or heading even lower? we'll breakdown the charts. and then a little known provision in the jobs act that president obama just signed could actually end up hurting
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welcome back to the "closing bell." natgas may be the story of the day. it looks like we might test that two handle. we've also gotten some news, where is the tipping point. traders say until you get real legitimate, not just wet of this related demand, we can see softness for a while. take a look at crude for the week, basically flat. the dynamic here is some traders tell me their bottom end of the range could be 100 guys. others say we may go down to 95 before we see real support. even though we saw a bid today, the sentiment is a bit bearish. back to you at the merck. >> brian, thank you so much. here we are in the final hour of trading and investors are watching crude oil. crude today getting a bid. we are seeing gains in crude oil but we're still looking at the fourth straight losing week for
oil prices. our next guest says that there's even more pain to come when it comes to crude oil. let's start talking numbers and speak with the chief technical analyst and that is mark newton. thank you for joining us. >> near term looks like you can go lower in crude oil. as you look at the daily charts of wti, trend lines from october recently have been broken on crude. also, momentum starts to slowly roll over and that's also a negative. you see these january highs that have been breached. all three of those things are negative. all those things suggest that crude gets down to $100, maybe down to 97. the one thing i want to point out, if you look at spot crude, looking at futures for the next five years, it's pricing a nearly $10 lower price for crude between now and 2013. it looks like the expectations are for crude to move lower.
>> do you think that the oil stocks are going to follow crude lower if we see a decline in oil? >> only in the near term. they are getting near to close materials. they show signs that you can start to bottom out. with the market overall i think it makes more sense. >> you're looking at murphy oil. >> this is one of the underperformers, it doesn't have nearly the same strong. exxon or conoco. >> if crude oil goes lower -- >> i think it's been bullish
february through may. >> bill, back to you. up next, we'll breakdown this chart to explain why it could be raising new red flags on wall street. what is it all about? you'll see coming up. plus, is the controversy around so-called pink slime doing ir rep prabl harm to the meat industry? that is as we come back after the break. back after this. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 the spx is on my radar. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 we're hitting new highs. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 and i'm on top of it all with charles schwab. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 tdd# 1-800-345-2550 i use streetsmart edge and its tools like... tdd# 1-800-345-2550 screener plus - i can custom build my own screens tdd# 1-800-345-2550 or use predefined ones. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 and i can trade wherever i want, tdd# 1-800-345-2550 whenever i want. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 the kicker? tdd# 1-800-345-2550 i pay $8.95 a trade. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 that's a deal in any language.
that. bill and maria, back to you. >> all right. let's focus on the markets this morning. initial jobless claims dropped to the lowest levels. retailers posted mostly strong sale numbers. while all of that should bode well -- >> the index measures how well economic data is doing compared to ekxpectations. when you look at the chart today, the index is on the verge of going negative, a sign that expectations are higher than what the data is showing. >> the economic surprise index. >> i always have a new chart for you. >> i know. i've heard it all. >> so are the fundamentals pointing to more stock market losses ahead? we did noticchan the mood of the market this week, especially after the minutes of the fed's march meeting came out and seemed to suggest that the
fed was putting further monetary ease on hold. >> we don't need qe 3 if the economic data is strong enough that we don't need to have the liquidity injection. >> our expectations is a 50/50 chance on qe 3. but we're in the camp of a fiscal cliff in the second half of 2012. consumers and businesses are going to have to adjust their behavior in advance of the big tax changes that happen in january of 2013. so there's a chance that the fed will have to step in. where we're sitting right today, especially on the hope of the eve of the payrolls tomorrow, we don't expect, you know, that the data is going to deteriorate significantly in the very near term. >> one issue that i was pointing at earlier, which i think is really -- it struck me is the fact that in the first quarter earnings are expected to grow for the s&p 500 under 1%. you're talking about earnings growth of .93%. given a 17% rally in the nasdaq,
a 13% rally in some of the other averages, are the expectations too high in terms of what we're going to see in earnings? >> i think we've caught up with something that is more of a fair value. look, when we got into the fourth quarter, everyone was so negative. everyone had huge amounts of cash, afraid to take risk, and i think people are just expecting growth in the single digits. that's okay. >> on the day before a three-day weekend, we're expecting the woop, woop to happen. is it going to happen? >> i'm sure it will. >> i hear a lone woop.
>> maybe facebook is keeping things in check. >> this is the change i'm talking about that we saw this week. we're also worried about the possibility of an oil shock. >> you know, there are lots of things that could go wrong in the oil market. we already know that supply is very tight and there's potential for geopolitical conflict. these levels are starting to hurt consumer's pockets a little bit. $4 a gas, it does raise a question mark for us. you know, our lower in this price move than in 2008. we're not talking about 100 depreciation year over year. >> how do you want to invest, then, with all of that in mind? >> a lot of people are calling
for bullish on equities over the medium term. we think valuations are not stretched and if you can get through some of this oil price shock here, if we can get through some of this fiscal cliff fear, if we can get through some of the scary or slower data in china that we had, people are going to be willing to take in additional risk and we want to be long global equities at that point. >> all right. i know you come back next hour. you're talking about some of the sectors that you have here. >> thank you. we have 25 minutes before the "closing bell" sounds for the day. dow jones industrial is off of the low. coming up, the latest on the fa fakebook decision to list on the nasdaq. president obama signed the jobs act into law a couple hours ago. how it could hurt retailers. >> luxury retailers continue to shine. do they have more room to rally? we will look at that coming up.
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just before the break as part of "the dividend," we asked which dow component is outperforming the other so far this year. general electric, united technologies, or the walt disney company? now the pay off. disney. which is up about 14% year to date. welcome back. i'm seema mody as the nasdaq where facebook is expected to list in may of this year. getting a nice pop on that big
news. aside from that, we're watching shares from apple and google. shares of apple exceeded google at 1:00 p.m. eastern standard time. a dollar higher than google. apple wins the market cap contest, hands down. lastly, retail continues to be a winner. bed, bath, and beyond hitting a new high for q1. the best performing stock for the first quarter. maria, back to you. let's get a quick check on the nasdaq. hitting modest gains, it's off pace to snap a two-day losing streak. technology the leading gainer. apple in the green. let's take a look. the stock is set to close another record high on apple. amazing. here you have the 52-week highs on the session. several of the nasdaq companies hitting fresh 52-week highs.
priceline.com and dollar tree. president obama, meanwhile, just signed the jobs bill into law and one of its goals is to enable small businesses to hire new employees by making it easier for them to raise money. what are the new rules? julia boorstin joins me from los angeles. what do you know? >> well, maria, the jobs bills tackles the startups complaints that it's too much trouble, a hassle, and very expensive to raise money and go public. the new bill will allow companies to do what is called crowd funding without s.e.c. registration requirements. it will also make it easier for companies to stay private longer, raising the cap on shareholder limits from 500 to 2000 before companies have to disclose financial data. and that new shareholder number will include most employees. now, for companies that do want to go public, the bill loses
regulatory requirements, calling any company with two years of audited financial statements instead of three and exempt from certain disclosures for up to five years. now, maria, it also allows more companies to qualify for lightly regulated offerings, what they call mini offerings, raising the cap from $5 million to $50 million, allowing more companies to go public with less regulation. of course, this could drive many more companies to go public over the next couple of years. bill? >> julia, stay there. we want to talk more about this from the jobs act to the potential risks that it poses for investors. the emerging growth company act paves the way for early shares and make it easy for $100.
anything that easy, joining us right now is dreborah, the markt analyst with the street. the restrictions put in place on small companies have been complaining about, put in place after the dot-com bubble burst in 2000. now we're going to relax them again. i'm getting sweaty palms about that. >> it makes you a little nervous, huh? i've got shares in the brooklyn bridge. these rules were created to keep investors from getting ripped off. while there's going to be a lot of very smart companies and very smart people raising legitimate money in legitimate ways, it makes you worry about the scammers salivating about this because there's not a lot of guidelines. >> but this will be a boom for the early shares, the kickstarter and some of the other companies designed to raise money for early companies, right? >> absolutely. we're going to see the crowd
funding services like kick starter. we will see some regulation of them but i think we're going to see massive growth and a lot more ipos. one interesting sound bite is bill, an old silicon valley guru. he expects more. >> everybody applauds a small company to get enough capital to grow their business with you you know that not every single one of them is going to deserve that money. we face that with the companies that came public during the dot-com boom but in the '90s not all of them had business going public. >> you don't even have to go back to the 1990s. guidelines and rules and regulations, restrictions, and still took a lot of people's money, a lot of innocent people's money, even if groupon. lo and behold there are questions about their
accounting. there is questions about liquidity. you can buy shares in these companies but you can't trade them. now, that's going to help a company stay second market that won't have the facebook shares that they used to trade before. >> julia, there has been questions about second market and how they want to trade there but it's been a growing marketplace out there, hasn't it? >> reporter: absolutely. second market, you have to be an accredited investor to participate. you can invest if you're not an incredited investor. it changes the rules of the game and allows anybody to invest $10,000 in these small companies. the question is how much disclosure are individuals going to demand? it's obviously up to individuals how much they want to spend on investments in these small companies but are people going to be satisfied with the amount of disclosures or are we going
to see pump and dump schemes? >> what's good about this act here? >> i think what is good about it, you will have legitimate companies raise legitimate money. they will hire people. so that's good. again, i'm concerned that you're going to have these pictures. i've gotten three pictures already this week from companies trying to get me to invest in a football team, a game app developer and it's crazy but maybe that will help small companies like a game app developer become the next zynga. >> it does place the emphasis on the investor to do the homework and due diligence and, remember, if it's too good to be true, it probably is. >> i did go to the web port tals and tried to get more information about the company that were pitching. i kobt gcouldn't get a lot of information. that makes me nervous. >> the s.e.c. is not going anywhere. there is still going to be a lot
of oversight, right? >> reporter: there will be a lot of oversight and these companies are already trying to self-regulate because they know that the s.e.c. will regulate them. they want to start that process so they don't disagree too much with what they are doing in terms of the regulation. >> always a good strategy. do it before the government does it for you. julia, thank you. deborah, always good to see you. thank you for being with us here at the new york stock exchange. well, very much a mixed market. we have a bid in retail but oil and financial services pressuring the market. a fractional loss, though. ten minutes before the "closing bell" sounds and dow is off the lows. >> why did facebook choose the nasdaq for its initial offering and how much of a blow is that to the new york stock exchange. the masters teed off this morning. [ nadine ] buzzzz, bzzzz, bzzzz, bzzzz,
all right. welcome back. we're coming to you from the post. at the post of sherwin-williams and the stock is moving on pretty good volume. >> double today. about a million shares. >> and you've got two million? >> yep. >> heavier volume than usual. double is what this specialist told us. knocking the best one-day gain, hitting a 52-week high as stocks in the material sector push to the upside. suppliers also showing strength. sherwin-williams exterior paint
getting mixed reviews. ahead of the first-quarter earnings out two weeks from now, they have topped the estimate in five of the last seven quarters. analysts looking for earnings per share, and sherwin also over the last year advancing about 30%. pretty good move to the stock today, bill. back to you. >> painting a pretty good picture there. sherwin williams. we're coming back with the closing countdown for this thursday. we'll wrap things up for the week. the dow threatening to close lower for a third straight day. is it time to add some correction protection to your portfolio? we're look at that. plus, here's a look at some of the major averages trading. you're watching cnbc, first in business worldwide. back after this. [ male announcer ] if you believe the mayan calendar,
and you still need to retire. td ameritrade's investment consultants can help you build a plan that fits your life. we'll even throw in up to $600 when you open a new account or roll over an old 401(k). so who's in control now, mayans? okay. inside the five-minute mark as we head towards the close of the week. tomorrow closed for the good friday holidays. it's clear the message of the week was less risk. take risk off the table, especially after the minutes of
the fed's meeting of march were released on wednesday afternoon suggesting that further monetary easing may be on hold for a little while as we watch the economy continue to grow here and nowhere did we see the market response more than with the dollar index. the weekly chart with all of the averages and investments, and there's the move on wednesday. the first thing at 2:00 eastern time. that was the strongest safe haven play for the week. stocks skyrocketed and then they started pulling lower and for the week yield on the treasury -- the price went up almost a full percent. stocks obviously lower. this is probably one of the worst weeks, if not the worst weeks for the major averages for the week the dow down 2/3%. now, oil will eke out a gain.
some of that may be short covering. they are concerned about less oil coming from iran but, maybe no mistake, demand is still going down in this country and we saw an inventory number that came out much stronger than expected. a lot of oil and for the week down a fifth of a percent as it crawls out of the hole there. crude has become a safe haven play lately. for the week it's down 1.7%. a lot of selling on wednesday. and for the week we're down to $1631. a tech told us yesterday that he could see it going down to 1400 before it's all over. for the sectors, the one that benefited the most, technology. for the week technology was the biggest performer. let me talk to warren meyers here on the floor. as i said, less risk. that was the mantra before the fed meetings came out, right?
>> absolutely. you saw the large cap stocks get hit which was a typical reaction to that. >> a reversal of what we've seen? >> absolutely. the positive is the commodities bounce back a little. maybe we're overdone. no one is going to be able to act on that. you see volume light. people lining up their positions now waiting to see what it is tomorrow, come back on monday and go after it again. >> there was an ebb and flow to the markets. do you feel like it changed much this week? was that a big change or are we making too much of it? >> i think everyone has been anticipating this big move. when it came, everyone said this might be the one that we're waiting for. it didn't feel like that was it but it could be the beginning.
>> where do you think the market will be? >> somewhere this that realm and if it is, people can have a mini sigh of relief and then it will give ammunition to put on a little bit of risk. maybe not enough to go full board but -- >> and then of course we have earnings coming out very soon for the first quarter. >> i think there's going to be huge focus. and i think that's going to dictate how strong this economy is, how strong the companies are, and really what direction we're going to go. >> do you think the expectations are too high for what the earnings reports are going to be? >> you've seen a lot of lowering of expectations but you haven't seen nearly enough. you've probably not going to get beats on the percentage basis that we've seen and it will be less than normal. >> good to see you. thank you. as we head towards the close, the first hour of trading -- last hour of trading for the week, here's the first hour of the "closing bell" with the
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