the dow is closing down, and the s&p is at 13098 just above important levels. stay us with for the second hour of "closing bell." welcome to the "closing bell." bill griffeth will join me in just a minute. red arrows across wall street with the dow declining. averages are now down for the week. is this a sign of more things to come? and is the fed set to take more action to support the economy? we have charles plosser joining us. here is how we did today, the

13,000 right about even at 13,000. the nasdaq is lower by a wopping 32.5 points. a decline of more than 1.5%. >> it's a squeaker. is september going to prove to be an you thinkly month for the markets? traditionally it is. some speculating that ben ber nak key made this a point. steve leisman says what does that mean to disappoint? >> we'll talk about that, and the euro zone. how should investors be playing the market right now? we have ben paste, brian harry, james wells, and ron sonnen. you think it could hit 1500 by the end of the year?

>> i do, i think it's going to be a good year. i like some of the things happening here. they have been moving straight up ward telling us most economic reports -- we found out personal consumption in july and the chain store sales had a great start here in the month of ought. i think the economic momentum is starting to recover in the united states, and i think the stock market is following higher, if that trend continues, i think we will make that 1500 level before the year's out. >> ben pace, how are you positioned? >> i'm a little like jim as far as directionally but in and out quite the magnitude. i think our year end targets are 1345. we think you have to be more cautious. there's still issues out there

regarding fiscal policy and the elections and the never endi ii saga of europe. we think the economic growth will be positive. the economic numbers will get better but probably in a choppy way. being more cautious when you hit those price targets and maybe ratcheting back the position a little. >> ron, are you bearish? >> no, i thought we might have a correction at the end of the year and we did. and whether the fed qe 3, i think we will do some things at the margin. while he is sitting in the middle or on the fence, he may not want to pre-empt the fed chairman tomorrow. they will do a few things and i think the economic numbers are looking better. this is no tyke to get bearish. doesn't seem like there are any

glars signs it's going to grop. >> you think it's more than just qe 3. that's what we throw around here. you think there are other things they could do as well. >> yes, he could extend the language out to 2013 for keeping interest rates low. we're not expecting anything tomorrow, and in jim's camp we're looking at 1500 for the s&p at the end of the year. the investor confidence isn't there, but it is getting a little better, and for large cap stocks, i would say if you're looking long term i really like the stocks. i think they have growth prospects going further. >> jim, what sectors of the s&p are going to make that move? >> well, i like the e murgeing

market stories. they're trying from 6.5 to 3.5. i think those emerging stocks will take leadership again. in this country i like the manufacturing, the industrials, the isms have been hit this year in the slow down. i think they will come back again, and i also like the financials that are the second best performing year to date this year. i still think lending is showing a consistent trend and they will continue to surprise going into the next year. >> ben, anything in there you would like? what would you add? >> from an allocation perspective, u.s. large cap, not so much small, overweight emerging market, underweight in japan, we like industrials, we like health care, we like technology as well. we're slightly under weight

financials though, materials, utilities. >> how about you, ron? >> to an extent i would not agree with jim, i would not -- it's been unlocked, but if you're going to put things to work, and china comes down so much, it might be -- >> how do you do china? >> just do -- yeah. >> it's down 20% in the last -- >> it's down 35% in the last three years. there was no reason to be in china, but i think you can venture out and buy a etf with small amounts of money and see if those markets get any traction here. >> this is the first time we've gone through the markets without saying the word dividend. do you like some of the dividend

growers? >> i do, and i think it's a barbell approach. if you're looking for an income replacement, there are high paying dividend stocks. i'm a big fan of the domestic market. i think there is wonderful opportunities here and i kind of favor the domestic side as opposed to the euro zone for sure. >> gentleman, thank you. nice to see you all. >> today's sell off, is it a sign of more things to come? >> the future, i said this a few minutes soog in the hands of mr. draghi and mr. bernanke, i think. just the possibility that mr. bernanke might say nothing. i want sho show you the futures, we had a sell off going into the close. we lost 40 points, but if you put up the futures, the key thing is people convince themselves that mr. bernanke will not be doing too much

tomorrow. then around 11:00, the euro moved to the downside there. look at the drop at the close there. there is the euro around 10:00 this morning. we saw the move to the downside. and they said he's not going to have any bailout -- that weakenned the euro, stronger dollar. commodity stocks moved down. all were weak throughout the day. and the rest of the market remained fairly weak. we closed near the lows for the day. i want to note the terrific numbers for the same store sales. a 90% beat, huh? nobody complained about the guidance or the weather, and no nordstrom was up. i don't know, i hear that the fashion cycle was strong, the big bold colors were really

popular, i notice men's ties and pocket squares are bright. they just keep saying the fashion cycle and people like the clothes. >> it has gotten better, you walk by the gap, and for the first time in years i might want to try things on. >> they have gotten smarter with merchandising. thank you, bob. into real estate now. foreclosure is 23% of all home sales in the second quarter. so what does that mean overall, dia dia diana olick has the information. >> then, it's pulling down the prices of the overall national home price number which is what everybody is watching. the bigger issue lately is

supply. there's been very small supply and a lot of investors out there looking to buy these properties. so without the supply there, you see the prices going up on these foreclosures and that's a good thing. what reality track notes is they're starting to see more supply come on. it will mean that we'll see more foreclosed properties up for sale, and with supply, prices will come down. so we have to watch these, and it's been close, but it's all about the investors eating them up. >> how come there is not as much talking about housing on the campaign trail? >> it's amazing we have not seen more. governor romney said we should let the foreclosures happen and let it bottom out and correct itself. democrats have been running spanish language ads in swing

states using that sound byte, but they have not been talking about it that much. they mentioned housing one and said that the obama administration failed to correct the housing crisis. you think they would hit this hard because number one, we found out from a study from the university of california is people that have been foreclosed on or are under water don't vote as much as regular homeowners who don't have any other problems pch and for voter outreach, there's been another interesting story in the campaigns. both of them actually can't find the people they need to target because they have been foreclosed on and their address databases are all messed up. >> those are interesting data point there's there. >> do not go away, we have more for you on this edition of the "closing bell." >> coming up, fed watch, steve leisman sits down with charles

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tonight is the big night for mitt romney. here is the live picture. he will september the nomination for president, but right now he's going through his walk through high pressure he will do a mic check -- >> you can tell, he's looking at the prompters, getting his bearings. >> this is a big chance for him to really connect with voters. >> and if you have nod heart, client east wood is also speaking tonight. so a little star quality added to the covage respondent, and you can catch the address, and our coverage begins tonight.

>> it's all about the federal reserve as they await key teach by pen bernanke tomorrow. steve leisman is getting to pick the mind of one of the fis kwal hawks. -- fiscal hawks. >> thank you, i'm here with charles plosser, thank you for joining us. >> last time we were here, it was dark out. let's talk about the big question on investor's minds right now, and that's quantitative easing. >> like a lot of cost easing. the effectiveness is they don't think it really beats the cost bent test right now. >> let's talk about some of the costs, do you think additional quantitative easing koung bring

down interest rates? >> you have to remember, it's not that simple in terms of the challenges and head winds the economy faces. it's important that we not talk about structural versions cyclical, or supply verses demand. on the consumer side, we faced a lot of housing, and the natural reaction is to save more. they want to save more and restore the health of their balance sheets and restore their ability to spend and smooth consumption overtime. that's a natural and health reaction. policy is trying to push down rates so they don't save. they want to move spending from the future to the present. the problem is the consumers say we don't want to spend.

so lowering interest rates as much as we have over the course of this recession, the consumers are still trying to save, and they have to save even more -- >> you have a reluctant agent. >> and that would be the benefit. you don't get a lot of benefit in the way you look at the world, what are the costs? >> i want to go one other step with investment. it's what consumers don't want to save, but what businesses don't want to invest. why? huge amounts of uncertainty. tax policy, the path of the economy, the fiscal cliff, elections, regulations, all of that is inexhibiting businesses from spending. so the consumer wants to save, doesn't want to spend, businesses don't want to invest because they're facing uncertainty, and both of those ahead wins are not something that monetary policy can fiction. >> are you intent then to let

things take their course? >> no, i think thing dos have to take their course, and the adjust wants that consumers have to face, the deleverages is different from previous recessions, the amount that has to be done, and that has to run it's course. monetary policy does not create wealth. it doesn't create wealth. all we can do is rearrange it, and that's hard to do, and it's particularly different for monetary policy. so talk about the costs. >> they're in the future, they're in the risks. montana policy is an at extraordinary level today, never been seen in history. there are unintended consequences, there is the rick of when all of the exsuccess reserves flow out, that's when the risk of inflation will materialize. we don't know how quickly we'll have to reverse course, but the

consequences of that -- >> let's talk about inflation. people have be worried about it and talking about it since the fed increased it. >> of course not. >> how do you know they're worried about inflation all of the time. >> a piano could fall on your head. >> it comes from the magnitude of the excess reserves floating around the system. that has not been converted to money yet. i don't know when they will begin, but the heightenned inflation will happen then. the size of the balance sheet is a risk because we have never

been in to position before. >> there was concerns about a recession here. we seem to be doing 2% growth, where is your view on where we are right now? >> i think a lot of it is the head wind that's we fate, i think it's uncertainty, businesses i'm willing to spend. i think until some of the uncertainty, whether it be do to fiscal policies or elections, there will be a repluck tans and that will restrain the head winds. >> do you think the federal reserve has been doing a certain amount of easing because the european central bank has not? if the ecb does step forward, would they take some of the pressure off of the federal reserve? >> i don't think our actions are trying to do something because the ecb are not, that's not the right way to think about it. >> one of those head winds is from europe, and they would be

less -- >> if there was a reduction in the uncertainty. whether or not the ecb is resolve that is a different question. monetary policy once again can't resolve the fiscal problems that are inherent at this point. >> what would you like to see the fed do from here? >> i don't think that's necessary, but i don't see any point in growing it any further. we're not just about the risks down the road. it's like when will the piper have to be paid at some point. we don't know the disforces that we're creating some of my colleagues talk about low balances, the fed and policy makers and economist are generally not very good at predicting the tech bubble or the boom in housing. i think it's naive for us to think that we will understand any imbalance ls that we may be

creating soon enough not to have consequences for them. i think again that's a risk, and we have to take into account the policy increasing accommodation creates risks. and we need to balance those. >> thank you for joining us. >> jim plosser. tomorrow we will talk to john williams, and coming up in fast money, marty stein, the stay mouse economist from the nber will be with us. >> that was terrific. >> everybody is there but mario drogy. >> the costs are in the future, the costs are in the risks. that was my favorite part of that. >> you wrote it all down. >> i did. >> if you're worried about retirement, we have good news for you. guess who is helping folks get ready for their gold egolden ye?

>> how about a one big time tax for the wealthy. we'll debate the controversial proposal where it is happening. don't miss that coming up. >> later, who has the book rights to the god father franchise? the film studio thinks it does, but so does the late author's estate. who is right? you know what i love about this country? trick question. i love everything about this country! including prilosec otc. you know one pill each morning treats your frequent heartburn so you can enjoy all this great land of ours has to offer

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during the financial crisis, one casualty was the 401 k plans that saw companies pull back on their matching contributions. >> here is a sign of the changing times. they're getting back in the 40 k game with the highest participation rate since before the crisis. >> jeff cox looks at this change, and what does this tell us now? >> it tells us when you have that wad of cash in your pocket, you have to do something with it. so let's look at what's happening. you have corporations getting a little more confident. they're not that confidence, so they're not hiring people, and three, this is a nice way to do it. the percentage of companies contributing fell to about 68%.

it's kind of a good news thing if you're trying to get that 401 k rebullet. >> so we have gone from 68% to 73%? that's a great improvement. >> yes, and when you saw those contribution levels go down, you also saw the savings go down. one thing i'm concerned about here, this is one thing that every investor should keep their eye on. a little thing, companies can declare income for the tax deductions they take on capital depreciation. in number is very highly elevated at this point. it's boosting levels and it's one of those things that people watch. kind of something to keep up with, so far a good news story. >> they're still waushs with their cash allocations, that's for sure. >> we'll take a break, guess what, the government wants more

money, and the way they want it is raising eyebrows. we'll debate this controversial uk plan and why it's raising eyebrows here in the united states. >> and taking it to the mattresses, mario puzos estate are duking it out over the godfather franchise rates. a famous hollywood attorney. we want to know if you think another god father film should be made. tweet us at cnbc "closing bell." at merrill lynch, we understand the importance of your goals. today, our financial advisors lead from a new position of strength. together with bank of america, they have access to more resources than ever before. a steadfast commitment to help you achieve your financial goals in life. that's the power of the right advisor. that's merrill lynch.

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so do you think the rich need to pay more in taxes? check this out, over in the u.k., they're debating a one time wealth tax. right now, the best paid people have a tax rate of 50% on their income. and it's not close to the income tax in france, but it's raising eyes in the u.k. and beyond. >> yes, let's talk about this. . we have one of the few people we could find who sports this initiative, we also have probt frank. seriously, another tax on the

wealth? >> and you support this? >> i'm one of the few people you could find. all of the much biggest wealth tax is suggesting smng on t-- something on the lines of .5%. >> can we explain this? because in the united states, we have never really had a wealth tax, this is very, very european. this is not what i make in a year, everything i have in the bank, my assets, add them up and i have to hand the government 20% or 50%. so do you think it's acceptable? >> it's not 20%. it ranges from .8%. in switzerland they have a

wealth tax. and it's cost that state around $900 million in revenue a year. >> it probably brought in a lot more residents to florida that paid a lot more in taxes, right? >> we have a finance minister in britain that says we're all in this together together. you talk about another tax on the rish. in this country we cut the tax on the top 1%. they have given a 40,000 pound tax cut. so a wealthy tax has all of the advantages that they don't have. it does much less harm. they afor identification -- >> let me bring robert frank in, put it in perspective, the implications it could have in the united states as well. >> it's not surprising that the people who would not pay the tax

would support it. that in and of itself is not that surprising. wealth taxes have had -- >> the rich could support it. >> regardless, it's not surprising the majority of the population would not support it. swedeen had one, they dropped it. you're trying to value somebody's house. how do you value waelt at any given moment, and in addition, they look at france, and they carved out so many deductions, that it doesn't raise that much revenue which is why they're going to this other proposal. so countries iceland it is working, but i would not use iceland as a great global example of how to manage your budget. it's very mixed, it's very complicated, and it's hard to

value people's assets. >> is this a one time assessment? what are they talking about? >> the prime minister in this country, what he is suggesting is an emergency tax. he is says a one off tax. we get to hear details of those who suggest a tax. and the fact social security this. wealth inequality is worth than income inequality. they have four times as much wealth as the bottom 50% put together. >> thank you so much for joining us, we really appreciate it, thank you. thank you. >> that's when he lost you, right? income disparity is the trade off you accept for growth. if you want everybody to be

even, we've seen that, you can go to soviet union, communityist china, they all had the same income and they were very hungry. coming up next, the head of td bank. >> a hot button issue for her. >> how about a wealth tax on men in this country worth more than $30 billion. that would be an idea. >> can't wait to talk to ed clark. dra ma in the courtroom. we're going to talk to a hollywood lawyer coming up. on how different asset classes are performing, and it lets you go in for a closer look at areas within a class or sector that may be bucking a larger trend. i'm stephen hett of fidelity investments. the etf market tracker is one more innovative reason serious investors are choosing fidelity.

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shares of td bank trading lower today. there you see it down 1.3% today. the stock down despite reporting a 14% jump in quarterly profits. the bank boosted it's dividend for the second time this year. one agency says banks may be in for a tough ride the second half of this year. all things we're going to talk about right now on a cnbc exclusive, we welcome back ed clark. good to see you again. >> good to be here, a quick char characterization of the quarter? >> it was great, we're pleased with our earnings and we had strong growth. so it was a very, very good

quarter, but i think you mentioned in your introduction it's better to have a great quarter and great market and not have it in a down market, and then i think it means there is a overhang that the growth rates will slow in canada and the effects of lower interest races and what that will do going forward. >> do you take issue with that or do you agree with them? >> no, we have been telling the market that for some time. i desz the only thing we caution the market is don't go to the other end and exaggerate. in 2012, we said we would have to work hard to be in our seven to 10% shares growth. i think we will get in our share growth, and we're saying to the market for next year we have to work hard again. there is lots of he'd winds up

there. >> you, your second dividend increase of the year, we keep hearing you want to make a deal or an acquisition, are you not finding what you're looking for? where does that stand? >> dividends we see diving by earnings growth, and what we anoungsed is we're moving up the range that we carry. so for the next while, you'll see the dividends grow faster than the earnings. as we move up to catch up to their new pointing with they will have to go even father. our capital position, it makes a significant difference to our capital position. >> you're looking i gather, still? >> we always look, we look add a lot of deals, but you know we have a very simple par dine with the strategic position to

compete with anybody. you only want to make ak -- acquisitions -- and we can grow pretty rapidly, so you only want to make an acquisition if that's a cheaper way to go. >> thank you for joining us today. >> take care. >> so mario puzzos estate and a movie company are clashing. companies have to invest in making things. infrastructure, construction, production. we need it now more than ever. chevron's putting more than $8 billion dollars back in the u.s. economy this year. in pipes, cement, steel, jobs, energy.

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it is a legal battle worthy of an award winning script. we have the latest. >> that's right, this is between mario puzzos family and the move

view industry. we'll see who has the rights. they will be facing off today in a manhattan courtroom. >> his son wants to end the rights to the famous "god father" trilogy, but paramount says they have all of the literary rights and copy rights from puzzo. they're saying we have tremendous admiration and we have a need to protect our trade mark interests. pare mount tries to stop a god father sequel published in may. if puzzos family succeeds in this battle, we could see a movie at a studio other than

paramount, but some people like myself hope that idea sleeps with the fishes. >> who will have the final say on this one. joining us is del sendally, and we have bert fields by phone. what did you tell the court for why you should win this case? >> this calls for boiling down a long, long argument. i spoke for a long time, and my opponent spoke for a long time. it's tough to say. basically paramount has sued the the kids for copy right infringement for publishing books. and the kids defend by saying

that mario puzzo very clearly reserved the publication rights as opposed to the film rights. and they have cross complainted, rather than simply defending, they cross complained by asking the court to terminate paramount's rights in the theory that paramount in taking this position and telling the publishers that the estate didn't have the rights, have violated the contract. one of the remedies for violating the contract is termination of that contract as we say perspectively. >> barry cohen, where do you stand on this? it goes back to 1969. a relationship with a best selling author and a move vee

tuesday owe, which side do you come down here? >> he got multiple blockbusters for paramount. the contract specifically excluded and carved out certain rights for mario puzzo related to sequels. that's what his heirs are trying to do. now we're five or six years later. paramount has changed its mind scene trying to come after them. >> you side with the family. dale, how about you? >> absolutely. >> i side with paramount. a movie studio does not normally go into such a big thing as to spend hundreds of millions of dollars in making movie unless they have all the rights locked up exclusively. in fact, the contract says the rights are granted exclusively with the right to exploit them

exclusively. >> was the 1969 contract nebulously worded? isn't it crystal clear who has the rights? >> well, here's the line. there's a line that specifically refers to book rights, says the right to publish any and all parts and elements of this by publication. that in this -- by the way, this is a printed form paramount had mario puzzo sign. that line is crossed out. it's pretty hard for anybody with a straight face to say that that wasn't a reservation of rights and publishing. i don't even think paramount is going to say that. i think they're going to say, well, yes, he reserved publishing rights, but that was only in the original "godfather," and not any of the subsequent books. i don't even think paramount is going say he didn't reserve

publication rights in "the godfather." >> so dale, it was crossed out. >> are they taking advantage of that then? >> you bet they're taking advantage of it. what they're doing is reprehensible. they're suing mario puzzo's children for punitive damages after mario puzzo saved that studio. that, as i say, reprehensible what paramount is doing. it's a typical example of bullying, trying to outspend a far less equipped defendant. >> right. dale, this was -- >> they're taking advantage of the fact they have the big bucks. >> dale, this was signed at a very different time. book publishing was in a different era. the money involved was a lot less. they had no idea it was going to be this big a deal. is paramount taking advantage of that situation as a result? >> the estate has made millions of dollars as a result of this. the investment that paramount has put into this has made

"godfather" such a success. one of the things a movie studio would be concerned about is someone free riding on that success or diluting the value of that success. one of the wonderful things about "the godfather" is its quality. we're talking about proposed sequels unfortunately not written by mario puzzo, but by someone else. that's very different. the language at issue does seem on its face to say that you can publish that particular book. it doesn't say anything about sequels. it seems to just be reserving the publishing right to the original "godfather" novel. >> dale, the problem with that is -- >> the characters -- >> one at a time. >> the sequel is just the use of the characters in a different situation. >> right. barry, are they -- >> if that line was not crossed out, paramount would certainly contend that that line gave them book publishing rights in sequels, and if that's true, and

they must contend that, then crossing that line out crossed out book sequels as well. >> very interesting. >> i think they're in a hopeless position on that issue. that's not what we argued today. we just argued the cross complaint today. >> thank you, guys. thank you, mr. bert. we're running out of time. >> horribly out of time, unlike in courts where they can go on all day. >> i want him to be my lawyer some day. he's good. he never stops. before we go, earlier we asked yo whether or not you think hollywood should make another "godfather" movie. greg tweeted, yes. think big. >> absolutely. roger says, yes, and it should show how the mafia may have moved into high-frequency today trading. >> and jeremy wrote, better off going back in time and purging the third fill.

>> it was awful. >> thank you for all your thoughts on that. we're back with more after this. i'm only in my 60's... i've got a nice long life ahead. big plans. so when i found out medicare doesn't pay all my medical expenses, i got a medicare supplement insurance plan. [ male announcer ] if you're eligible for medicare, you may know it only covers about 80% of your part b medical expenses. the rest is up to you. call and find out about an aarp medicare supplement insurance plan, insured by unitedhealthcare insurance company. like all standardized medicare supplement plans,

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okay. with 30 seconds on the clock, our next guests will tell us what they think will move the marks tomorrow.

>> kevin cummings, darren wolfberg, and ward mccarthy. kevin, we begin with you. >> bernanke is the focus tomorrow. the bottom line is he's unlikely to send a strong signal about the outcome of the september 13th meeting. we think he'll have a tilt as far as reiterating a lot of the themes in the august fomc as well as talking about and explaining some of the mechanisms they have to use in its tool kit. in the end, he'll likely want to see his other colleagues' view as well as the august employment report, which we'll get at the end of next week. >> all right. >> per fek. >> darren, 30 seconds. what are you watching tomorrow? >> hey, guys. tomorrow bernanke, it's all about him. we're going to wait and see what he has to say. i think it's going to be speaking a bit dovish, even though he's not going to pull the trigger on anything. i think you will get the quick knee jerk to the 1385 level in the futures. i would use that as an entry

point. we're going to be moving higher from there. i think the next step will be september 12th. >> all right. that will be big. >> ward, over to you. >> what he will do tomorrow is reiterate a lot of the sentiments we saw in the minutes and that were repeated in the letter to representative dan issa. he may go so far as to repeat the phrase that this go for more easing. what he will not do is precommit to anything at the september 12th and 13th fomc meeting. what could be most interesting would be if he'd had some discussion of the new tools that the fed is considering and possibly some discussion of what an open-ended qe might be. markets might be disappointed because he is not going to precommit, but he's going to hold a carrot out there. >> all right. >> close. >> thank you, gentlemen. very good. see you tomorrow. >> that's always fun. >> the dow down over 100 points today. we haven't had a 1% move in the last 47 tradi