Skip to main content

tv   Fast Money Halftime Report  CNBC  September 19, 2012 12:00pm-1:00pm EDT

12:00 pm
>> that's jeffrey gundlach on this program just a few minutes ago talking about apple under performing the overall market today and also said watch bank dividends. they could be at risk long-term in the european situation is not fixed. that does it for us. let's get back to headquarters, wapner, and the fast money halftime. >> thanks so much. welcome to halftime, four hours to go until the close. here is where we stand, green arrows across the board. you know the dow jones industrial average has only been down three times this month. that's true. it is up again today, up 41 points. nasdaq playing along as well. here is what we're following on halftime. crude crash, how to play the big drop in oil. algos gone wild. and our top story, the market. stocks moving higher again and will the bulls keep running? let's get the latest trades from
12:01 pm
steve weiss and john and jerry and brian kelly. how about it? give me the scoop. does the market continue to go up? >> i think it does. i was wildly bullish a week ago, still bullish, a little bit off, the moment of truth will be as we get close to earnings, we saw fedex yesterday announce earnings and guess what, the stock is up today. ups is up today. you're in a for giving market with the governments saying here is cash, it is free, you take it, take risk assets and go have fun. until that is over we'll keep going higher. >> dr. jay, you're positive on the market. are you still? >> i am still. i love that steven says we're having fun. we are. it is fun when you're long and if you're short and the market is going down but there have been few of those days, only three in the month of september and i bet you those were mondays because what is it -- it is a crazy number. there are a lot of folks who i
12:02 pm
continue to unfortunately be against doug cass on this chasing performance and going to continue to chase, i believe, for the next quarter. >> grasso, give us the read from the floor today. >> it is a little bit long in the tooth, but we have been saying that for a little bit now. >> exactly. >> 1442 was our line in the sand. above there it is every 20 handles is your resistance. we're right at one now, 1464, 1484, call it 1502. if you have been buying this ral i will, i think it is a little extended at this point. we don't see the explosion in guys coming in, new buyers coming. we see them maintaining positions. >> you have had this for so many months now. how much of it has been an explosion in your words except for a day or two here or there where you get a 150 or 200 point move to the upside? >> i think all of this, you could chart this back, scott,
12:03 pm
right to 1266 in the s&p. you could chart it where people start to talk about qe3 from that point on. i would say it has been 80, 90% priced before it even happened. none of us were really expecting this explosiveness coming out of the chairman's statements, but nonetheless we're still holding at these levels, huge levels in the s&p. >> are you a buyer brian kelly? >> yeah. >> you said the other day buy everything. >> i still think you can. we're still in -- look what happened with bank of japan last night. they opened up the spigots on their monetary easing again. i think what you have in the marketplace is dynamic of central banks printing an awful lot of money and the idea that you could have somes on tart out there. we have ben bernanke talking with senators behind closed doors and maybe we get positive news on the u.s. fiscal cliff here and that will not next catalyst to move us higher. >> good luck. >> as long as they didn't want to pript money. >> good luck. >> all the market is pricing in at terrible scenario. we need one little step in the
12:04 pm
right direction to break through grass. >> i totally agree with you. the problem is everyone we priced in all of these things and china and we priced into the best of our ability europe and we priced in so many of these different issues but the only thing that we haven't priced in is the fiscal cliff because turning out people don't seem to be that nervous about it, but if you really look at the numbers and i think they will in the next couple of months, it starts to get a little bit scary. i don't know you would get to afwreemt. >> you're not going to get one before the election. aren't we poised for a pullback? >> yeah. i will disagree. the market overall has not priced in all of those negative scenarios. markets trading at their highs, five year highs, hard to make the case they priced in so many bad things. it is a bifurcated market. if you take a look at the material stocks and take a look at kohl'sstocks, they're trading very, very locally
12:05 pm
valuations and deservedly so. the moment of truth as i said is earnings. last quarter we scathed through. this quarter will be much worse and we're going to see guidance come down and it is going to disappointment the street. >> you're already giving that. >> 3m today, fed ex yesterday or the before, whatever it was, the market is higher. >> here is why i am bullish and don't care. the u.s. consumer still does okay. the ones out of work, it is very, very tough to adjust in terms of the market earnings. depends where you play. i am in domestic focused stocks and i missed the european bank rally and i am not going to miss much more. it depends what sectors are you in. >> the fundamentals just don't matter right now. as long as the market believes that and they're going to be money printing, it really doesn't matter if earnings are weaker than expected. >> now you sound like terranova without the accent, the data don't matter. >> the data don't matter, that's the market we're trading. spot on.
12:06 pm
>> real quick, if you look at the sectors that have out performed, look at the xhb out of qe3, it was up basically 7% and now still holding onto nearly 3%. so that's the place where you want to be. everyone thought it was over priced. everyone thought that they were too topee and that continues to out perform. >> craig johnson making a big call on the market grabbing a lot of attention on the street and certainly on our trading desk. he joins us now. good to have you on the show with a bullish call and s&p, 15.50 over the next six months. how are we going to get there? >> i think we'll get there by continuing to see good stocks continue to trade higher, a strong row base, seeing fixed income markets starting to sell off and we think it is ultimately going to see money flowing back into equities. i will point out we have seen ten year bond yields make a series of higher highs and lower lows and when we see those come back to equities, it will be a real positive thing for the
12:07 pm
market. >> that's what we have been kicking around for the last week or so is when if at all do you get that huge rotation out of the bond market into the equity market to reach the kind of levels that you and other folks on the street think we'll get to? >> i think that's in the process starting to happen. again, looking at ten-year bond yields over the last year and actually two years, and what we have seen is a higher low and now a higher high set on ten-year bond yields and to me that's the first step of being in an up trend, higher highs and lower lows. >> i don't want to sell your predictions over 2,000 the next 24 months. what about as steven weiss says you have to worry about earnings going forward here. >> i think at this point in time certainly fundamentals do matter. if we are going to see money coming out of fixed income and going into equities, i think you will see the multiple. market get assigned a higher value. we will see the market really act like a deep cyclical type stock in that you will see the stock move up ahead of time and
12:08 pm
then earnings improve after the fact. >> where would you be in the market then to reach the levels you expect us to get to? >> well, we continue to like the technology sector, consumer cyclicals, and we see a lot of relative strength kprooufment happening in the financial sector. we do need to see the financial stocks really engage, disengaged back in 2007 and they have really begun to reengage over the last several months and that's a real healthy sign for the overall market. so those three sectors are where we're looking at. >> so i am with you. basically your case, i am not with you in the targets. i think they're way too aggressive. your case is you're going to see multiple expansion in the market which is that investors will be willing to pay higher valuations for lower earnings which i think will happen, but it only happens as you see the allocation from bonds go to equities, and that's going to start really in force. we have seen some when retail
12:09 pm
investors pick up their at the same times and seeing how much capital they lost, minor moves in the bond market. is that a good part of your thesis? >> absolutely, that is part of the thesis. the other part that's also going to move this market higher is nobody believes in the market at this point in time. i have been out marketing many clients around the globe at this over the last several months and more yet to come. what i am finding out is a lot of investors are not participating. the average hedge fund is up less than 5% for the year. they clearly under performed year-to-date. at this point in time there is going to be quite a bit of catchup that will have to take place, so there is going to be more money wanting to come back into equities and beginning to participate again in fear of under performing the market. >> craig, i got to run quickly. you see under weight energy and materials. hasn't the fed given you a reason to get into those names? >> when you look at the things on a longer time span, you will see they have not been good relative performers.
12:10 pm
when you do get secular changes of interest rates like you did in '82, they were laggards, and i suspect that will happen once again. >> craig, good to have you on the show. thanks for coming on. >> craig johnson, piper jaffray. seema is keeping an eye on the home builders >> strong data out this morning. existing home sales soaring to a two-year high and jumping and further signs it is in a recovery mode and home builders rallying on the back of the report. take a look. >> seema, thanks. despite the recent positive data that seema is talking about, robert schiller isn't convinced housing bottomed. take a listen to what he said yesterday on halftime. >> i might call it later this year although we reached the bottom, but i am not ready yet. i don't see calling it. i would like to see more consistency in the evidence. >> shil ler doesn't want to call the bottom. what would you do?
12:11 pm
>> if you look at the stocks, he is applying from a different side of the equation. the stocks are saying we hit a bottom on the individual granular stories, so if you look at anything in the xhb, all of those names have been running. we thought they were extremely topee. if you look at anything from whirlpool to lumber liquidators, all of these silly names that people don't realize they're in the index, forget about toll brothers mpl those are the cream of the crop. you want to be in a name like toll. >> are you still buying home builders here? would you? they had a good run. >> they have and i missed them and what schiller is not focusing on as steve was alluding to is the market is a discountsing mechanism. you don't need the sector to bottom in terms of the actual fundamentals. i missed the whole way up. i appreciate your coming to me again and reminding everybody that i missed them all the way up essentially. i wouldn't go there. i would still go to home depot. i think that's attractive in a good way. they were still buying d.r.
12:12 pm
horton, d.h.i. i think professor schiller knows in his heart the bottom has been in but he didn't call it, so he missed it and like all of us he is loathe to actual -- if we saw any pullback in here, i am sure he would be on it like that to say where he is calling about. >> brian kelly, you know the run the home builders have had. do you get in? do you get in now? >> yeah. i mean, i think you can probably go to some of the secondary plays. i think you will be safe on the home builders. i would say the data doesn't matter, the home market has bottomed. i can tell you that right now. i would go to something like look at a weyerhaeuser. that will be the lumber exposure and a dividend and i think that's the way to play it now. you can certainly still buy the home builders, but there is other ways out there to get into it now. >> the best way to play, i think, is the with a i to play the mortgage rates and fat yields and power mortgage and they have been great stocks and
12:13 pm
continue to do well and buy those and make money on the yield and the stock appreciation. >> the retrade is definitely paid off. on the way, goldman sachs adds one of the world's most famous fertilizer stocks to its conviction buy list and we go behind mysterious market moves in our accountability zone. should traders blame high frequency trading? crude oil dipping to six-week lows and morgan stanley's head commodities guy tells us why when we come back.
12:14 pm
with the fidelity stock screener, you can try strategies from independent experts and see what criteria they use. such as a 5% yield on dividend-paying stocks. then you can customize the strategies and narrow down to exactly those stocks you want to follow. i'm mark allen of fidelity investments. the expert strategies feature is one more innovative reason serious investors are choosing fidelity. now get 200 free trades when you open an account.
12:15 pm
12:16 pm
12:17 pm
monsanto is a great way to deal with things like that. >> you could reach levels we last saw in 2008 assuming this market behaves the right side. >> monsanto was a talker. >> that's a former goldman guy. >> right. >> 11% over the last three months, 31% a year-to-date for shares of monsanto. more to go? >> there sure is. imagine if we didn't have the drought we had this year. as you know, we can't fertilizer your way out of a drought even though they have drought resistant seeds that they're going to be obviously in much higher demand next year because of what happened this year which probably means we don't have a drought for the next ten years. that would be a good thing by the way, not a bad thing. i think monsanto is doing a lot of things right. i think guy was spot on with his call and the guest yesterday was right as well. >> do you buy this name? do you buy the other names in the group. >> i love monsanto. that's probably my favorite and then the group and then you have something to shoot against. it broke above $90.
12:18 pm
you can now use that as kind of a stop level, technical breakout. i think it is much higher. >> what about the other names? >> i think you can. i think people forget some of the fertilizer companies are a cartel. i like pot. i like mos. i think you buy the whole sector. it will be a great planting season. >> okay. oil is dropping like a rock today. it is down about 3% and roughly 8% over the past three sessions alone. what is the best way to play crude sharp move? hussein, head of commodities research at morgan stanley. welcome to the halftime show. great to have you. >> thank you for having me. >> what do you think is behind this and where do we go from here? >> i think it is a combination of things. we had at nounsment from saudis yesterday and that they're looking to keep the market relatively well supplied and you have seen a little weakening in the sour crudes which is indicative of the fact that they may have put more oil in the water and you have a constant sort of background noise
12:19 pm
surrounding the spr which i think limits the willingness of investors to want to participate but overall, scott, i think the biggest issue is crude is trading at a level that historically has challenged economic growth, challenged oil demand, right as we're heading into a period of so farness. have you refiners going down for maintenance and quite a bit of non-opec supply shut in owing to field maintenance coming back. we think the fourth quarter is a softer quarter. we do think that the structure of the curve weakens and flat price is challenged. >> the noise can be around for a while. the election assuming that you think the noise is politically motivated, the election obviously six weeks or so out from here, so we could have this issue and you could have a ceiling on the price of crude just given that that could be around for a while, yeah? >> assuming that the spr noise is political, your window -- >> even if it is not, you know? >> the window to get it done in time to have an impact before we go to the polls is closing
12:20 pm
quickly. it is not an instantaneous event that occurs. i think the economy is not in a position if you look at the demand data out of the u.s. or the emerging market, the economy is not in a position to contend with an oil price where we have been trading i think over the last couple of weeks. >> everybody is seemingly raising their price targets on gold given what the fed and other central banks around the world have done, boj, another catalyst today. what et cetera your outlook here? >> i think we have been constructive, gold really, i joined morgan stanley in 2006. we have been constructive since then. the picture is getting far more constructive now with the announcements not only out of the fed but the ecb. i think in an environment where real rates remain depressed and central banks are net buyers of gold and the fundamental picture, mining production remains challenged and capex part of me is moving higher, i think the picture is positive for gold and i think the risk reward in owning gold more importantly is positive.
12:21 pm
>> i don't remember everybody being so positive on gold since it hit 800, i believe, in the 1970s. given that has a background, what's the incremental positive voice and are you concerned there is really no negative words out there in gold? everybody seems to love it. every fund, every analyst, every strategist. >> through the first half, through the first half i think it was challenged quite a bit by a stronger dollar and a frustration on the part of the investor that i wasn't doing more. i don't think gold goes up in a straight line. i don't think anything goes up in a straight line. in an environment where the value of the currency is deteriorating, there is growing concern surrounding inflation if you look at the break evens that started to move slightly higher. i just don't see a whole lot of downside in owning gold part of me. we're not of the camp that gold goes to 3,000 or 4,000 or anything extreme like that but ultimately see the market under pinned which really reduces your
12:22 pm
opportunity costs of holding gold. >> great to have your insight on the show. thank you so much. talk to you again soon. the head of commodities at morgan stanley. grass owe, what is it, the gl d or gdx? when would you play gold itself are or the miners? >> i am still in gdx, it out performed since the end of july. it is up basically 35% compared to the gl d, up around 13%. i think the average investor, i like to play the miners. they under performed and now seem to be out performing. i am saying in gdx until it seems like it is exhausted and we're not there yesterday. >> b.k., what do you think? >> i would rather be in gld. i know he has been in the minors. i get the trade. they under performed. i am betting on gold. i am betting the price will go higher and it is the ultimate bubble, the fundamentals of the gold market are impacted by the price that investors put on gold. it is this circular thing that can go as high as anybody wants
12:23 pm
it to go. >> this is why i love b.k. he refused to be confused by the facts. he still took the other trade. >> the data doesn't matter. didn't you hear me in the beginning? >> guys, guys. i am long ugl which is high test gold. come on. if you believe, then play. don't give me this. >> there is a lot of buying out there. in january of 2014, not just four months from now, the ones that are out there are 16 months out. january of 2014 a lot of buying of upside calls out there and people are looking for significant upside out of these miners. >> are you taking your refiner trade off the table at this point with this drop in crude? >> put it this way. if you look at those reports that we have seen on all of these down grades, they all say they're going to beat. that could be the numbers. it might be in the numbers. it incident moo be in the numbers. if you look at this last couple of days of performance, they have all been whacked 8, 10, 12%.
12:24 pm
now they have leveled off. if that refiner trade was truly, and i know it is crowded, but if it was truly off the table, you would see a lot more selling backed up here. i was actually tempted to get back into valero today so i don't think the refiner trade is over yet. can they go lower, yes. i would leg in by 10 or 15%. >> talk about a straight diagonal line. i know you have been talking about valero for many months and you wonder if you get into a name like that here. >> you do. >> if you think crude oil is coming down. >> some big hedge funds were doing that over the last couple of days and even as they got down grades. they were in here selling puts. we talked about it monday, i believe. they were selling the 29 puts in october in valero and obviously even on a day like today the stock is up another 40 cents. valero is, and the puts are shrinking. for somebody to sell that put, they have a belief the stock isn't going to break 29. i think they're right. >> tie it up.
12:25 pm
>> i am in the other stocks, playing energy through and great field and a great stock and hk which i love and some of the private equity players and sold the big chunk, artificially depressed it, spent the day last week with the ceo. to me you get the up i had so, the oil participation and the guy building the great company. >> you still love hk. >> i still love it. i bought more. >> taking pain there. >> a little bit of pain. not much. not much. by the way, as i said, it is two to four-year play and will triple. >> just keeping you honest. >> i appreciate that. >> coming up, new mysterious moves linked to high frequency trading, how these violent moves in the market affect you. facebook ceo mark zuckerberg has a case study for other social media ipos and lessons new companies need to learn from him. we'll be right back. with the fidelity stock screener, you can try strategies from independent experts
12:26 pm
and see what criteria they use. such as a 5% yield on dividend-paying stocks. then you can customize the strategies and narrow down to exactly those stocks you want to follow. i'm mark allen of fidelity investments. the expert strategies feature is one more innovative reason serious investors are choosing fidelity. now get 200 free trades when you open an account. ♪ [ male announcer ] how do you engineer a true automotive breakthrough? ♪ you give it bold new styling, unsurpassed luxury and nearly 1,000 improvements. introducing the redesigned 2013 glk. see your authorized mercedes-benz dealer for exceptional offers through mercedes-benz financial services.
12:27 pm
wanted to provide better employee benefits while baingthe company, their very first word was... [ to the tune of "lullaby and good night" ] ♪ af-lac ♪ aflac [ male announcer ] find out more at... [ duck ] aflac! [ male announcer ] [ yawning sound ] a short word that's a tall order. up your game. up the ante. and if you stumble, you get back up. up isn't easy, and we ought to know. we're in the business of up. everyday delta flies a quarter of million people while investing billions improving everything from booking to baggage claim.
12:28 pm
we're raising the bar on flying and tomorrow we will up it yet again. time to hit the halfway house on half time. we hit our top three trades, corning getting a pop, upgraded from goldman to buy from neutral citing the diversification moves. there is a look at the chart. nice one today, up a little
12:29 pm
better than 2%. >> they didn't cite the gorilla glass either. that could be one of the reasons. as far as this stock, it was $11 just a month ago, and moves through 13 today. it traded 15 million today. i would say people are piling on and jumping on the goldman call obviously. >> take a look at the transport etf, bouncing off the support level. b.k., this is an interesting one. obviously it hasn't traded all that well. year-to-date up 2%. it is under performed. given what we heard from fedex, what do we do here? >> that's what's interesting. a lot of the dow theory people are concerned the transports have lagged in this. fedex even is at a support line even with the horrible data that they gave us. again, i think if we hold this level and you see the transports start to move higher off this level, which i think they can do, it would add another lag to the bull market. >> what is is up with tenet health care, on a run as we know
12:30 pm
rallying 15% over the past six sessions and getting upside move today. >> all of these hospital stocks have been on the move and as you just stated, since qe3 was announced, it is basically up 18%. now, do you buy this stock? it is a play on obama care. it is a play on unemployment, improving the unemployment rate and if do you that you get a lower bad debt expense for these hospital names. any trade thaer looks at these things will be extremely hesitant buying these names. doesn't mean they can't go higher. i probably wouldn't play them. >> all right. traders are still trying to figure out what caused a number of mysterious market moves this week and the latest incidents are raising more questions about whether too much technology is leaving investors at a disadvantage. eric is with nan ex, a firm that tracks unusual market activity and joins us on the phone. welcome to halftime. >> thank you very much for having me. >> what is the deal here? monday you have a 20-followed
12:31 pm
spike in volume and oil in a short period of time and yesterday we're talking about mysterious moves in a handful of energy related names and it all leaves investors again throwing up their hands saying what the heck is going on? do you have any answers? >> make sure you have a super computer and a couple of kwaunts on staff. >> what you're saying is the individual investor has no shot. >> well, as you will hear many -- >> mary and joe sitting out there trading somewhere have no quants. >> they could buy the super computers and get them. nothing preventing them from doing that. >> capital, the cost. >> is that the deal here though, the algos are running the game and the high frequency traders are the ones that have the inside move here and leaving everybody else out in the cold. >> and hasn't it always been that way? >> it has but is it getting worse? >> i believe it is. >> i am looking for answers. >> i believe it is. i believe it is getting worse. i believe it is getting faster
12:32 pm
and the faster it goes the more expenses come. >> what is at the root of the issues of this week? why did we see that wild swing in the price of crude oil on monday, showing everybody a look at the chart here and so they can see and you're seeing a dramatic drop just before 2:00 and then sort of levels off and rises a bit. what was behind that? was that a legitimate fundamental move in that stock or in crude or was that an algo going crazy. >> it wasn't an algo going crazy. what the chart looks like and the data looks like is there is a fundamental seller selling oil and whoever or whoever was making the market in oil or a group, maybe not in concert, absorbed as much as they could take and as soon as they got to their breaking limit, they turned around and dumped their position immediately and that is when we see the sudden drop off. >> very similar to the flash crash when they all of a sudden
12:33 pm
reached their full point, just turned around and immediately sell it which causes the severe price move. >> so what is the answer? i mean, why are we here? why are we talk about this every couple of weeks whether something comes up in the market? >> because we have no regulator who is able to actually look at the data like this and come to these conclusions. >> i don't understand why. you can look at the data. you can understand based on the market moves and the data ticks why a tern trade happens the way it does. why the hell can't the regularitiors? >> i do not know the answer and i am looking forward to hearing the answer. >> eric, i love your work as you know and i cite it frengtly on our site and yesterday, scott, when the trades were going off i was pinging eric and saying was this a news reader algo, some news i missed, something that could read it in a millisecond reacted to and eric said no, probably not, but as far as, eric, wouldn't you think a speed bump of some sort, like 50
12:34 pm
millisecond you have to hold the bid which is forever in high frequency trading world, wouldn't that be at least some step forward that the regulators could take? >> absolutely. i mean, just goes to basic common sense. if you tried to get away with this face-to-face with another human, you would be ostracized. this behavior, human nature says it is wrong. >> eric, appreciate your insight. it is a story that obviously we on halftime continue to follow and i know we still will because there is going to be another incident at some point. probably in the very near future. eric, good to have your insight on halftime today. >> thank you very much. >> i do have a comment and i want to finish ordering my super computer and quants on amazon. i think the biggest issue is some hfts front running the other orders, legitimate orders. you put a legit order on the
12:35 pm
books and they come in and trade ahead of you and that's what's going to bring the regularities into this. >> some people still talk to vids and that's why we all exist because when the machines fall down they call a human being. go figure. >> the landscape has changed. it is not going back the other way. >> doesn't matter. i can still price things. we have the ability to price things so i don't payee roen uses trades. a a computer jumps on of a cliff. a human being doesn't. you boo i at lower prices and you realize something is not right >> not only were there mysterious market move this is week, also there has been bizarre behavior on our trading desk. take a listen. >> this is fast money. i am not getting married to these names. i am a serial dater. i am a happily married man and i considered leaving my wife for bernanke. he brings so much joy to everybody in the world. i love it. i am thinking of flying down there and giving him a wet one on the lips. i told you, i am a serial dater.
12:36 pm
weren't you watching the show before? >> weiss has a nice tie on and matching cuff links today, too. >> bernanke. >> i don't know who you want to plant a kiss on today. >> i just spread love and joy throughout the world. >> yeah, baby. >> all right. ahead on halftime, we couldn't resist. who is in the in crowd when it comes to social media stocks? we'll get picks and where to find the biggest upside among retail stocks. americans believe they should be in charge of their own future.
12:37 pm
how they'll live tomorrow. for more than 116 years, ameriprise financial has worked for their clients' futures. helping millions of americans retire on their terms. when they want. where they want. doing what they want. ameriprise. the strength of a leader in retirement planning. the heart of 10,000 advisors working with you one-to-one. together for your future. ♪
12:38 pm
12:39 pm
welcome back to halftime report. i want to do a market flash on facebook. we're seeing it pop today, up more than 3% on heavy volume. take a look at the chart there. the big question right now of course a lot of people wrote this one off. scott, my question is is this the one that got away? >> we're going to find out. i can tell you we're going to talk to somebody coming up right now who has interesting thoughts about facebook. it is coming off the best week, since the ipo, still trading well below the ipo price and
12:40 pm
another social media stock, groupon down about 75% from the ipo. what will it take to get them back to where they debuted? porter, become to halftime. >> great to be here. >> it has been a remarkable turn around and make you can trace it to zuckerberg going public. people seem to be more comfortable with him and facebook's business model more than they were before. >> i think usual right. he did speak out for the first time since the ipo. my feeling is mark zukerberg is in over his hoodie. >> i know it sounds good but what's behind it. >> he has 50% of facebook users logging in from mobile devices. he has yet to come up with anything close to a model that
12:41 pm
monetizes mobile. the other announcement that he made last week has excited the market and i think it is probably what's behind the lift in the share price today. he said, well, we're looking hard at getting into the search business. my advice to mr. zuckerberg is check with steve balmer at microsoft and ask him how much traction he developed for binge. it ain't easy getting into the search business. >> dr. jay owns facebook and i think he would disagree with you. >> i would, porter. i don't disagree that he may be in over his hoodie, but it was a very positive talk last week back and forth at tech crunch disrupt, and just as you say he talked about search. he didn't talk about developing binge or google. he talked about ways that they could use search and i think if they have higher levels, for instance, of facebook that you can acquire, by virtue of you being willing to use the search function on facebook, that they
12:42 pm
could incent folks to do that. i will say that i had this wrong. i bought it at 20, fell down through 18. now that it is back up to 22.60, i look better but still haven't called it right yet. >> don't wait until october 25th when the next earnings report comes out. it will be a bummer as well. the one thing he does have that he has not promoted and that's really ironic, he is starting a competitor to google's ad sense, an advertising syndication service that will send ads through facebook and to websites and destinations way beyond facebook and that could be a very important monetization model for the future of facebook. i don't see anything really visible that is happening in that front. he didn't mention it at tech disrupt. >> let's go to groupon now. andrew mason will speak exclusively to julia boorstin in
12:43 pm
the next hour. i think you can make the case his appearance may be as important as zuckerberg in the clear sense the stock has dramatically under performed. he hasn't done anything public. the market wants to hear from him. if he blows it, it may be their last shot. >> i think it is his last shot for the simple reason that from the beginning there was no barrier to entry. the idea of offering special discount coupons on a daily basis was not original. it was not novel. he was able to create critical mass quickly, but that success, that early success of groupon hassen gendered a huge amount of direct and peripheral competition. everybody under the sun is doing the same thing and taking away the traffic from groupon. >> let me ask another question. between apple and google which move lately is more impressive to you in the stock, i mean? >> well, nobody can deny what apple has done that is just
12:44 pm
astounding. i think that google which was stagnant and not really appreciated by the market for over a couple of years is really on a fast track right now and i think you will see over the next 60 to 90 days a lot more movement upwards in google shares than in apple. >> give us your top technology play, what stock you think will appreciate the most through the end of the year. >> staying with the social media, i really like ren ren in china. it is a u.s. listed stock and i like cena which owns wibo, the twitter of china. those two social media stocks in china are going through the roof, and investors are not paying much attention to them because it is china. china has 550 million internet users. wibo has 350 million users on their twitter clone.
12:45 pm
there are 180 million users on renren which is the facebook of china. i think those stocks bear a lot of attention and are going to see nothing but upward movement. >> porter, great to have you on the show as always covering all things media, social, and otherwise for us. thank you so much. >> thank you. >> groupon is one that i am going to be selling into mr. mason's speech because as he said as porter said and as bill gurly said, there is no mote whatsoever around groupon. as far as facebook, i will give zuck the chance to screw up. in other words, i admitted being in at 20 and riding to unto 17 and change was painful, but i think it is on its way back. i think it will be a slow climb and those earnings are going to be key. >> his analogy, porter's to microsoft doesn't hold water. microsoft was a software company that was not their job to attract viewers. that's facebook's motto and they did it quicker than anybody else
12:46 pm
in the history of mankind. i don't have a position. i am worried about the lockups, so if i were dock, i would start to look to get rid of it soon. >> on the way, your tweets traded and food shopping or hitting the mall. where morgan stanley sees the best retail opportunities. we'll get the best dressed retail stocks coming up. ♪ [ male announcer ] introducing a reason to look twice. the entirely new lexus es and the first-ever es hybrid.
12:47 pm
this is the pursuit of perfection.
12:48 pm
the entirely new lexus es and the first-ever es hybrid. ♪ forz(power!) andiamo! andiamo! (let's go! let's go!) avanti! avanti! (keep going! keep going!) hahaha...hahahaha! you know ronny, folks who save hundreds of dollars by switching to geico sure are happy. and how happy are they jimmy? happier than christopher columbus with speedboats. that's happy! get happy. get geico. fifteen minutes could save you fifteen percent or more. retail stocks coming up.
12:49 pm
> i am right there in the enclosed, sealed headquarters of cnbc. the stock has been getting crushed. now groupon unveiling a bold new mobile payment plan. will it be enough to turn around the stock? we'll have a live interview with the ceo, and the brand new forbes 400 list, the grand daddy of the wealth list. i am not on it but who is surprised by that? who is in, who is out, who is up, who is down and the staggering amount it takes to even get on the list. it is at the top of the hour. now back to scott and more fast. >> we'll see you at the top of the hour. looking forward to that mason interview for sure. looking for the best way to play retail from now until year's end, morgan stanley put together a list. here with me at the plasma they like shopping, foods, drugs and pills.
12:50 pm
gny, what do you think? >> i think gnc is okay. it is kind of a niche stock. i am not so sure about it. i will go with that. >> you forget to take your supplements today? >> take them but i go i do. but i go to vitamin shop. it is a lot cheaper than gnc. >> i sold whole foods. >> they had a great later quarter. >> but the multiple here, valuation too high for me. >> how about target? >> target i like. i think they're picking up share. it is managed extremely well. costco which they mentioned also, another great company. i love going to costco. it is like a field day. so much fun going through the aisles. >> you like eating all the free samples. >> i get breakfast and lunch there. i get there real early on saturdays. >> grasso, what name on this list do you like? >> the two last names, target and costco. >> i thought you were going to
12:51 pm
say wapner and weis. >> that's redundant. you know i have four children. but target has figured out how to manage the square footage better than anyone else in the space recently. it's getting a little long in the tooth but i'll get back to that. stick with what's working. target, costco has been what's working. also whole foods. they've been able to manage their stores pretty effectively, too, with suppliers. >> they haven't mentioned jcpenney. ron johnson said i'm not going to give any updates about earnings, not going to talk same-store sales. leave a lot of hope out there, that's european strategy. today he is hosting a tour of his new stores with analysts. stock's trading up. i was long for a nanosecond. i have no position. i'd like it to trade a higher. we'll be right back. at optionsxpress we create easy-to-use, powerful
12:52 pm
trading tools for all. like our all-in-one trade ticket. we put strategies, chains and positions all on one screen. start trading today with optionsxpress by charles schwa
12:53 pm
12:54 pm
welcome back. you've got questions? we've got answers. seema, what are traders talking about on twitter? >> let's get right to it. market seems tired. pundits would call this digestion. to me it feels like indigestion. steve, any thoughts there? >> there's always a seventh inning stretch in everything you
12:55 pm
do. you just had a big run. it's got to consolidate a little bit, then you'll see the next leg up. >> the next one, cnbc's "fast money" -- everyone's saying to buy gold. how about silver? do you take profits or buy high and sell higher. b.k.? >> i will say buy high and buy higher in this particular name. still going to be subject to the ebbs and flows of the dollars but i love silver here. i actually bought some yesterday. >> thank you. dan says what is the real story behind pharmaceuticals? >> there was chatter that aetna was going to cut coverage on sqcor. the stock what i don't understand is why they didn't stop it from trading. it dropped all the way to a 50% drop before they finally put in a trading halt. it made a rebound and it hit the trading halt again on the way back up. now it's still down $17 which is about 35% but obviously the
12:56 pm
bears feasted on this one today. >> big dip there. lastly, they want your money. he tweets if profit margins retreat, does the stock market correct, by how much? fedex did warn us yesterday. steve grasso? >> profit margins will contract a bit here. i don't think anyone's paying attention to b.k.'s point. fundamentals don't matter at this stage in the game. i think they do. when they're hit smack in the face with these margins contracting, you're going to see the market retreat. i think we'll still stay above 1,400. >> grasso, thanks. seema, thanks, as always. still ahead, final trades. later on "power lunch" -- big news from groupon. the stock is soaring and the ceo is talking. adrew mason coming up in the 1 p.m. hour. we'll be right back. capital on, olaf's pizza palace gets the most rewards of any small business credit card! pizza!!!!! [ garth ] olaf's small business earns 2% cash back on every purchase, every day!
12:57 pm
helium delivery. put it on my spark card! [ pop! ] [ garth ] why settle for less? great businesses deserve the most rewards! awesome!!! [ male announcer ] the spark business card from capital one. choose unlimited rewards with 2% cash back or double miles on every purchase, every day! what's in your wallet?
12:58 pm
up. a short word that's a tall order. up your game. up the ante. and if you stumble, you get back up. up isn't easy, and we ought to know. we're in the business of up. everyday delta flies a quarter of million people while investing billions improving everything from booking to baggage claim. we're raising the bar on flying and tomorrow we will up it yet again. looking for a better place to put your cash? here's one you may not have thought of -- fidelity. now you don't have to go to a bank to get the things you want from a bank,
12:59 pm
like no-fee atms, all over the world. free checkwriting and mobile deposits. now depositing a check is as easy as taking a picture. free online bill payments. a highly acclaimed credit card with 2% cash back into your fidelity account. open a fidelity cash management account today and discover another reason serious investors are choosing fidelity. and those well grounded. for what's around this corner... and the next. there's cash flow options from pnc. solutions to help businesses like yours accelerate receivables, manage payments, and help ensure access to credit. because we know how important cash flow is to reaching your goals. pnc bank. for the achiever in you. welcome back. let's do final


info Stream Only

Uploaded by TV Archive on