tv Closing Bell With Maria Bartiromo CNBC December 12, 2012 4:00pm-5:00pm EST
stocks, and they sold bonds in a big way. >> okay, indeed. so there we go. there's the closing bell. getting some breaking news about alizabeth warren. having difficulty hearing that, to be a member of the senate banking committee next year. elizabeth warren. you've got your news alert as we hear the clapping for the closing bell. and welcome back, everybody, to the "closing bell." i'm mandy drury. maria will be back tomorrow. wow, lots of cheering here. >> there always is. people love it when the market closes. i'll bill griffith. bernanke spoke today. stocks gave back some early gains. here's how we're finishing the day on wall street. as we were saying, the dow was up 80 points at the peak today until the news conference began with the fed chairman, and the devil was in the details.
the dow down 12, now 6 points. we're finishing near final figures down to 13,241. nasdaq down 8 points and the s&p hanging in there, at least for the moment, still settling out but at 1428 and change. >> indeed. with the marks losing steam during the fed chairman's press conference. why don't we take a closer look at today's moves as we've got lots of people lined up here and a couple on the set as well? >> randy bateman from huntington funds is over there. stephanie link, cnbc contributor and bruce mccain with key private bank in cleveland and michael pento of pento portfolios, no idea where you are, and bob pisani on the floor of the new york stock exchange. what did you make, stephanie, of today's market action? you're the trader and follow the short-term swings. what was the message of the market do you think today? >> the message is the market is nothing is really going to change. interest rates will be low for an extended period of time. the fact that they tied the rates to unemployment, a little bit of a twist to the story, but
it means that rates stay low. i think that the housing theme continues. i think that financials continue to work because even though you have a flat yield curve they are a beneficiary of the housing cycle, and away from all of this you focus on what happens internationally and china continues to recover. europe looks like it's stabilizing and we didn't change our strategy based on the news, just a little bit more of what you're doing. >> randy, anything change for you? >> no, not really. what we're watching is the parallels that occur now, where we stood with the fiscal cliff and where we stood in 1999 with the y2k situation. we borrowed a lot of growth in 1999 from 2000, and that led us to a recession. we're looking at the same thing now. we're seeing people have accelerated dividends, pre-payments, seeing a lot of companies that single proprietors are paying themselves this year in
anticipation of higher rates. >> it's interesting that you point that out. it could be argued at the same time that we're delaying growth until next year because of the number of companies that have delayed hiring or capital expenditures because of the uncertainty about the fiscal cliff. >> yeah. well, uncertainty, unfortunately, is perhaps going to continue with this because the regulations are not going to go away there. may be a little bit more clarity but we're still writing up the regs on dodd/frank and looking at the health care thing. that won't be resolved in the first quarter. >> taking a cautious attitude. >> we think this is probably good. the numbers won't manifest themselves until the first quarter, but i think there's a lot of acceleration this year. the bonus depreciation is going to go away so there's been heavy capital spending last year and this year it won't happen, but i think pretty positive for the first quarter, but then we're going to have to face reality and it won't necessarily be that good. >> very much the opposite of what tom lee was saying, 1580 for the end of the year and block rock with 1,600 for the end of next year.
michael pento, what do you think happens? >> send the kids out of the room before he answers this. >> i'm smiling for you, bill. >> i think first we have to realize that ben bernanke really has no idea what he's doing and must admit that his policy that's been in place now for four years of free money and 0% interest rates has really produced a very poor employment picture. let me prove my point. the november non-farm payroll report, we actually lost 22,000 jobs in the goods-producing sector. how could that be after four years of 0% interest rates? labor force participation rate, falling. the employment-to-population ratio falling and the key demographic of 25-55-year-olds, that demographic, they are leaving the workforce. >> michael, i get the feeling you're not a huge fan of ben bernanke. what would you do if you're the chairman then? >> if i was the fed chairman i would resign and realize that 12 people have absolutely no idea what the cost of money should be. the most important mechanism,
symbol in a free market economy is the cost of money, and they have no idea telling us what that price should be. >> price mccain, help us out here. what's your expectation in the fed has said they are going to keep rates this low at least until unemployment falls to 6.5%. when do you think that happens, and what do you do with your money in the meantime? >> well, unfortunately, our crystal ball probably doesn't go that far into the future, but we think -- >> get a bigger one. >> the two keys to the next 12 months. number one, the reexpansion that's going on overseas and what that will do for u.s. exports and u.s. firms, but number two, the uncertainty that small businesses in particular face and their reluctance to expand. on the one hand we think it's a little better growth than we've seen, but we think the uncertainties that smaller businesses in particular face is going to keep a lid on growth, and so what we see is an extension of the rather slow-growth environment had a we've seen that will help propel equity prices higher but not
dramatically over the next year or two. >> bob pisani likened the fiscal cliff to y2k, and it is to a certain degree, at least in terms of decision and hiring and that kind of thing, it's creating some kind of paralysis. you talked to the traders here on the floor of the stock exchange. is it creating paralysis for them as well? they are not making any big bets until they know what happened. >> y2k created a lot of talk but didn't have impact on the stock market. i was here for that. the fiscal cliff has more impact, and it did today. i watched what the markets are doing today. today when bernanke was on, i saw interest rates move up, bond yields move up, highs for the day, and i saw stocks move down. that's kind of the opposite of what bernanke was wanting to have happen. >> right. >> and two things, guys, that did that. number one, he was questioned persistently about the fiscal cliff and had to come out and say what he said before we don't have the tools to deal with it if we go over it. that was a approximate stocks started moving down and secondly, the 6.5% unemployment rate. that's got a lot of people talking down here that we may be
closer to that than a lot of people think. >> bob, that's only because people are leaving the workforce. that's how we're going to get there. if everybody decides to stop looking for work and stay home and watch soap operas then we'd have an unemployment rate of zero. >> that could be a factor in their decision making, i'm sure it will be, but i'm using the numbers actually out there, 6.5%. that number may be hit a little bit sooner. >> he said he was not going to stick to that if people keep leaving the workforce. >> right, just a guidepost, not a hard target. >> stephanie or randy, you know, another market that moved today was gold. >> yeah. >> moved higher after the fed's announcement. there are those who feel as they keep the rates this low for the foreseeable future, how inflationary that might be. >> labor costs are going nowhere north any time soon. >> you're not buying gold? >> not right now. there are other ways you can play this move and other commodities certainly, and that would be tied more to the recovery in china and the global growth story and the recovery,
but i don't see any inflation in the near term. >> i think one of the predictions that was on the cnbc.com slide show this week was that gold would hit 2000 in 2012 and certainly did not. what do you think gold is going to do in 2013? >> i think it will continue up. i'm concerned that we're debasing our currency to a certain extent. washington has yet to revoke the laws of supply and demand, and we certainly have supplied the economy with a massive amount of liquidity with the same goods and services, the balance has to be priced, and a price situation is going to be higher levels of inflation and they are keeping rates down pretty much right now. >> yeah. >> we have a diminishing level of return, and that's what's happening. we're pushing rates down, but it's not having the impact. >> lower bang for your qe buck as steve liesman put it earlier on. >> thanks for joining us. always good to see you, eyore pento. >> putting fire into the conversation. >> thank you. so much for the holiday cheer. with the rate things are going in washington, there will be plenty of holiday jeer between
now and the new year. >> the president's called for $1.4 trillion worth of revenue. that cannot pass the house or the senate. well, two former presidential candidates face off after the break. i feel like i'm going back to 2008 or 2004. steve forbes says no tax hikes for anybody while howard dean argues everybody needs to pay a little more in taxes and not just the upper income. both sides of that coming up here. >> and also just ahead, the ceo of a tech company says he may be forced to cut jobs because of washington's fiscal follies. he's going to be here. he's going to explain how bad it will be, not just for him, but for other companies as well. >> and then later a retail boom on main street and wall street. with just two weeks to go until christmas, we'll tell you whether consuperers have been hitting the stores in force and which retail stocks stand to benefit as a result. stay tuned. much more to come.
is continuing only discussion on one side of the ledger. it has always been about tax rate increases and nothing about spending. >> well, maybe my next guests, both former presidential candidates in fact, can come up with a few solutions for us. we have steve forbes, chairman and editor and chief of forbes media and howard dean, former governor of vermont and also former chairman of the democratic national committee. great to have you both with us today. >> we'll stand back and let the political flack go at it. >> and have you eight minutes so a lot of time to go at it. first of all, steve, fantastic to see you. >> good to see you. >> what do you propose? >> first, they extend this thing for six months. the idea you're going to reform tax code and entitlement between now and christmas is preposterous and pike on taxes right now, putting extra taxes on the economy right now when we're slowing down in the fourth quarter. i was just in europe. they are in a deep recession. france and germany are going recession. japan's already in recession.
they are doing the same thing the democrats want to do here. put on new taxes, and they are just putting their economies in a death spiral. >> this is no time for austerity is what you're argueing? >> what i'm arguing is don't put extra taxes on the economy. we know from europe and japan that does not work. >> okay. >> howard? >> i don't think we ought to kick the can down the road any further. we have a huge deficit. frankly i think ben bernanke has done very, very well stimulating the economy without government interference. i think the thing to do is go right over the fiscal cliff. you'll raise some taxes, yes, that's true, you'll cut defense and some human services. this is the only way we'll have a significant bite out of this deficit. i think the market is going to like this. they say no right now, but when they see that this government is taking on the deficit in a serious way i think they will like it >> you don't think going over the cliff is armageddon? >> this is just nonsense, absolutely not. this is a bipartisan deal that was made. now both parties are trying to welch on their commitments.
i think that's a mistake. >> steve, ben bernanke said today if we do go over the fiscal cliff, even if it's for a short period of time, it's going to be very costly and they do not have the tools to basically dig us out of it. do you believe if we go over the fiscal cliff it won't be as easy as the governor is suggesting? >> we're in trouble anyway this quarter and the next quarter and putting on taxes of any kind would be the wrong thing to do. sometimes the governor is a former physician, current physician, and you learn first go don't harm the patient. putting on taxes would harm the patient. we've seen that around the world. >> what do we do with the deficit problem we have? >> the only way to get rid of a deficit ultimately, spending restraint. you've got to do entitlement reform. that will take months, not a few weeks, but it's grow the economy. if we had revenues equal to what we normally do, 18%, 19% of gdp, that cuts the deficit in half. there's no way you can tax and cut spend out of this contraction. the last time we tried that was the early 1930s. did not work. >> let me disagree with steve.
the problem is not simple police we don't want to cut -- we don't want to raise taxes. if you look at this thing from a balance sheet perspective, raising taxes and cutting spending will do the same thing. they take money out of the economy. i think that that's true. i think we're going to go through two quarters of the recession. it will be a mild recession, 1.5% consecutive quarters down, and then we'll have, according to the cbo by the end of the year, a little less than 2% growth. we have to deal with this deficit. this is never going to be easy. i think it's worth having a mild recession, popping out of it after two quarters. i think it's worth making some of these cuts and worth everybody having to pay the same taxes when bill clinton was done. otherwise we're going to keep kicking this can down the road, and we're never going to get to the deficit. that is a big problem >> you know, governor -- >> alan greenspan agrees with him, by the way. do you think a mild recession, as he would characterize it, is enough of a price to pay to solve our deficit problem here? >> no, because it won't solve the deficit problem.
when you have a contraction you get less revenue and as we see in europe, the revenue goes up, pile on new taxes to deal with the deficit. it gets worse. why can't we learn from experience. when you remove barriers from growth, low tax rates and stable dollar, we start to see signs of life again. >> i'm very interested because we hear a lot of tough talk from both sides of the aisle, right, both sides and the media hearing things on a daily basis and a lot of differences and not much compromise at this stage. do you think that they really are so dug in, or is this just public tough talk? >> i have absolutely no idea, but as i said before the best deal the middle class in this country is going to get is if we go over the fiscal cliff. here's what will happen if we don't. here's what the compromise will do. there will be a small tax increase on people who could pay more. there will be no tax increase on middle class people fine in the short run and not long run because we can't about the budget without tax increases. the pentagon will get more money. this is note a good deal -- when -- i'll tell you what
happens in the deal. the republicans get a good deal, the democrats are going to get a good deal, and the american people get screwed once again. this is not the right way to do it. we need to deal with the deficit now. this will take a big $4 trillion -- $7.3 trillion over ten years bite out of deficit. that is a significant amount of money. we have to stop kicking the can down the road. the politicians made a deal. now they should stick to it. >> it feels like we're going to be in for a significant period of real austerity like we haven't felt in decades. >> this is not real austerity. >> we've had the worst economic recovery from a deep down economic downturn in history, and to think that a recession is going to cure the budget deficit, just look at europe. it's preposterous. the only way you get out of financial mess we're in today is through economic growth. >> to grow. >> that means not piling on taxes. also means the federal reserve stop hurting the economy through another one of these questions, what are we now on, 200 now, and what it does, what the fed is
inadvertently doing is giving easy money to the government and making it more difficult for small and medium-sized businesses to get access to credit which hurts economic growth. one of the big reasons we can't get above 2% growth. >> i completely disagree with that analysis. i think what bernanke has done is absolutely brilliant. the reason that there's the credit problem for small businesses is simply because banks aren't lending. they are investing in stupid things like credit default swaps to turn their money around and they are not lending into the markets as they should be. that's the banks' problem, not government problem. i think this government is being a lot smarter than the government in europe. the reason i don't think we have the kind of austerity we have in europe is because of the fact that bernanke is doing what he's doing. the fed is absolutely doing the right thing, preventing deflation and it's high time the politicians started seriously dealing with the deficit. the deficit is never going to get better. the situation about the deficit is never going to get better unless somebody does something about it. you can talk all you want. >> the europeans have been doing
the same thing the federal reserve is doing, and they are having the same problems we're having, and in terms of the banks, if you want banks to lend, have the regulators stop beating them up every time they make a loan. it's easy toe lend to the government, easy to lend to big companies, but small and medium-sized businesses, you better pay for that things over six ways to sunday and the regulators are camping out and the banks will be on your backs for it. we need a countercyclical bank policy, and easy times they ease restrictions and bad time they put on more restrictions. that is just foolish. >> the banks got us into this by their bad behavior. >> no, the federal reserve started it. they hadn't printed so much money, we never would have had the housing bubble we did, and we should have learned from the 1970s. when you trash the value of your currency, you get mal investment, bad things happen but every 40 years we've got to relearn the lesson. i hope we learn it this time. >> the executives at aig, lehman brothers, bank of america, countrywide mortgage had nothing to do with this. this was all the government's fault. >> the government created the conditions where they did what
they did, and if the government had kept a stable dollar you never would have needed this currency trading, default swaps and the like, so when you have a bad environment, people try to adjust to it, and the crazy things happen. in the 1970s, ail went from $3 to $40 a barrel and when we conquered the inflation and went back down, and we should do the same thing today. stable dollar, like 60 minutes an hour, thinking that changing minutes in an hour will help stimulate the economy, no. we need stability. >> gentlemen, you have very sufficiently filled eight minutes and i'm sure you could have filled 18 had we given them to you. >> two smart guys with two very different opinions. >> good to see you both. >> thanks. >> see you later. >> thanks for joining us. manpower survey shows businesses will continue to hire in the first quarter of next year with the fiscal cliff looming larger every day. what do these business leaders know that the rest of us may not? we're going to find out from the head of manpower in just a few minutes. >> also up next, are holiday shoppers beating back the grinch? our checkup is next and a look
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fedex shipped a record number of packages on monday. comscore says there's been eight days when online sales topped $1 billion so far this holiday season, but we seem to be seeing the shopping lull that many feared after the thanksgiving weekend and before time ultimately runs out. according to a reuters poll, 58% of respondents have completed less than half of their holiday shopping. 28% haven't even started, and only 18% have checked off their lists completely. but lucky for procrastinators and potentially retailers. this year the holiday season is two days longer than last year, and those days happen to be a critical weekend right before santa is scheduled to slide down chimneys around the cloglobe. retailers are flowing fresh product mid-month in december to capture the interest and attention of consumers. macy's and kohl's have both hinted at introducing new product later this season in order to capture last-minute spend and enticing somebody and
december 17th, that's free shipping day. they are expecting that could be a record day for online sales, too. most surveys including the latest surveys do reveal consumers are being careful about holiday spending, though that's the intention and not necessarily the actual outcome. bill? >> december 17th is the last day i can get free shipping, is that what you're saying? >> i want to be careful when i say it's the last day to get free shipping because it's a blanket statement but it happens to be a day many retail remembers going to offer. >> give me a target here. >> free shipping day. >> i've got to know a date, the drop dead date. >> panic on the 16th. >> fedex will tell you it's a different day than ups and amazon different than other retailers and december 17th is free shipping day where thousands of retailers will offer free shipping and that's definitely going to be the drop dead date for those. >> oh, yeah. got a date now. thanks, security. >> yeah, sure, bill. >> all right.
what do analyst think about this holiday shopping season? >> we've got a pair and whether they think a boom for retailers is still ahead. liz, let me ask you, first of all, what are you seeing in the season so far, and is the best yet to come? >> yeah. i think it is. i mean, it's very much like you said. it's a barbell season. people shop early and they shop late, but the weeks in between tend to be a little bit of a nail-biter. i think consumers are waiting for better bargains and know that fulfillment online has gotten better so they are pushing out purchases and it's just a long season and so the shopping has spread out a bit more. >> usually i'm earlier than this, eric, but i think knowing that there's one more weekend before christmas this year, i've sort of delayed a little more. you see that, and i think you agree and we've got a lot on black friday shopping and then we'll wait until the latter part of the season to get the shopping done. right? >> we've been saying the last
thing, the game is buy early and you maximize the dollar and get good product here. the consumer knows how to play and the retailers do, too, so we always talk about this valley between the two cliffs in terms of christmas shopping. this happens every year and we're on track for a very solid christmas right now. >> okay. the retailers know how to play it and the consumers know how to play it. how do we play it as an investors, liz? >> i like macy's. i think macy's is really -- they have done some tremendous things this season to have a strategy, to capture some of this late shopping, and the early shopping. some stores are going to be open continuously for the last week. i think they have got the great product. i really like fossil as well, a watch under the tree. i think there's a lot of watches in their arsenal that -- that will be perfect gifts for people so those are my two picks for the holiday.
>> i agree on the fossil, hint, hint at home. eric, who do you like here? >> we like beaten down names that we'll be able to take advantage of strong results and the ability to maintain lower inventories. the first thing we have express, a company that lost its way the last three quarters and gotten back to what they do best, discounting fashion items and we expect them to continue off low expectations and the other is the speteen space. that should enable combined with cheaper cotton and better margins and aeropostale, on the low end and abercrombie & fitch on the high end. very cheap cotton and a very much lower inventory position than in previous years. >> what do we avoid then, liz? >> well, you know, i think that some of the -- some of the moderate department stores are not great plays for the fourth quarter, you know, i think that penny's is struggling. kohl's is also struggling.
for me those aren't necessarily fourth quarter plays though it might screen differently on a longer term basis. >> neither of you chose any technology companies or any toy companies. eric, are they just not resonating this season, or what's going on? >> you know, when you look at it, i think this has been a year where power has really taken back share. there's no really must-have items, and you can look at things like tvs that have gotten cheaper and cheaper. not having as much impact and the toy business is having real significant problems given the fact that it's up against technology and frankly kids don't find toys as exciting anymore as -- as -- >> that is so depressing, so depressing. >> is that what's happening at your house? >> absolutely. they want stupid stuff. i don't mean stupid, things they are never going to get like an ipad. >> or a pony. >> or an iphone, it's like in your dreams. you're going to get a ken doll and that kind of thing. >> thank you both for joining us today.
merry christmas. >> see you later. >> happy holidays. >> i've got to get to shopping here. >> feeling the pain, a tech company's ceo. coming up next on why he may have to cut staff in 2013 and why washington could change all of that. >> yeah, but then later the header of the biggest and publicly traded firm manpower joins us, and wait until you hear what their latest survey indicates about hiring for the new year. back in a moment.
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research and development tax credit which actually expired a year ago in december. >> indeed it did. well, the head of tech company transact technologies bart shulman is urging washington to bring it back before the end of the year, and if the r & d tax credit is not extended, he says that, plus obama care, could force him to lay off workers. he joins us now to make his case. >> welcome, sir. >> thank you very much for joining us. tell us in your own words what you're most fearing here >> you know what? we've got this r & d tax credit that has not been renewed, hitting our bottom line by 2%, 2.5%. think about it. these are high-paying jobs that we hire. it was just announced that china surpassed the u.s. in patent applications just last year. the r & d tax credit goes to hiring and expanding our r & d research. that and obama care, obama care just hit us by 19.5%. our medical costs are going up next year by 19.5%.
so what can we do? we'll have to adjust our costs and get them in line. we compete in the worldwide economy, and our costs are going up. >> how much did that loss of the r & d tax credit cost your company as well? >> it cost us about 2.5%, 2% on the bottom line. >> and if the r & d tax credit does not come back, how many people might you have to let go next year? >> so what we have is we've got the 2%, 2.5% that we lost in the bottom line and obama care hitting us by 19.5%. our costs are going to go up 19.5% next year, so we believe, we'll probably have to cut two or three people just to overcome the extra cost that's going to hit our business in 2013 so we've got obama care going through. we're going to take on half that cost and pass half of that on to our employees. think about that. that means that our middle class employees are going to see that increase in their health care costs next year. >> right. >> howard dean was just on with
steve forbes, and howard dean's feeling is, look, we've got to solve this problem of the deficit somehow. we can't keep kicking the can down the road. >> bill, we can't. >> and there needs to be a shared burden for everybody. that would be your burden that you just identified, right? >> well, no doubt. we've got to share it across but think what everybody is talking about, personal income taxes. that's the topic of the day. we've got to raise personal income taxes. what does that do? does that go after warren buffett? warren buffett says he wants his taxes to go up, but what are we going to do, hit people $250,000 and above and raise their taxes. that doesn't hit warren buffett. let's get into the details. let's sit down and understand what these tax increases are going to do. yeah, we all have to share in the burden, no doubt. we've taken on half the costs of the medical. we're going to lose the r & d tax cred i. lost this year and will lose it next year. >> right. >> we talk about personal income taxes, bill. i mean, it's not addressing the issue. we're not addressing the issue.
people didn't like the fact that mitt romney only paid 14%, but this tax increase doesn't take care of that. we're talking about a tax code change, not a tax increase. we need to look at tax code. we need to sol ever the problem. >> we certainly do. talked to a lot of ceos, around the water cooler and for lunch. what are they saying in terms of whether or not they will also have to let off workers next year or it hasn't affected their hiring plans? >> well, what i've heard from almost every ceo is, one, their health care costs are going up, so they are passing that on to their employees, so that's going to be a so-called tax on the middle class right there. i'm sure that other companies -- there's so much uncertainty, mandy. how do you plan for next year? what is going to be next year? are we going to hit a recession. you know what happens when we hit a recession. businesses have to lay off. we compete in a global world. it just doesn't happen here in the u.s. so if we're -- if companies are going to see the costs go up or the market go down or the revenue go down, what do you
think they are going to do? they are going to cut costs. it's inevitable. this is happening to -- it's happening to everybody, and we've got such uncertainty. i mean, how do you -- how do you do this with the fiscal cliff and let it the keep going, but bigger problem is this is going to take a lot of work. how can somebody just put a plan together over a week or two and say here's the plan for the future? >> right. >> we need a tax code change, right? >> you've identified it. we share your pain on that front, the frustration levels are going up, and i hear it in your voice as well. thank you for your time. wish you well in 2013. >> thanks for joining us. >> bye-bye. >> we've been listening to a very unhappy ceo threatening to cut jobs next year. will 2013 have to be the year of the layoff? manpower ceo is coming up next with what his exclusive research is finding. >> and it may surprise. >> you later on, want to know how to actually haggle on the price of a hotel room?
our buddy scott wapner takes you inside marriott international and we'll get a glass of water for mandy as well. you're watching cnbc, first in business worldwide. >> time to toast today's close with this. the original batmobile from the 1960s tv series is on the auction block. iconic move and tv cars have sold for millions, like the 1964 astin martin db-5 used in the latest james bond hit "skyfall." that one first appeared in the bond films "goldfinger" and "thunderball." so how much do you think it sold for back in 2010? find out next. [ male announcer ] trading's like a high-speed train.
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aids is strong. aids is strong. but we are stronger. and aids... ♪ aids is going to lose. aids is going to lose. ♪ a toast to today's market close. how much did the '64 astin martin used in the bond films go for at a 2010 auction? $4.6 million. and some are comparing it to the original 1960s batmobile. barrett jackson says batman's wheels could sell for millions. >> worth every penny. >> well, after 15 straight quarters of positive u.s. jobs data, hiring is expected to continue at the same steady pace in the first few months of the new year. well, that is at least according to the latest manpower survey. 17% of u.s. businesses plan to
hire in the first quarter of 2013 conspired to 8% who plan to cut staff. >> concerns about the fiscal cliff have been holding them back from hiring even more workers. let's talk about this manpower survey with ceo jeff joerres who is joining us again. >> great to be here. >> we just had a ceo on very concerned about job hiring for next year because of the fiscal cliff and all the costs associated with, that and yet your numbers here seem to suggest that at least statistically we're not seeing that much an impact, or am i misreading this here? >> no, you're not. when you look at it it's actually slightly better than what we saw in the fourth quarter and a lot better than the first quarter of this year. >> how do you explain that then? >> what you're really seeing is that right now, as companies are looking at their demand, they are saying, you know what, you've got enough demand that i'll have to continue to creep up. this is not a robust hiring survey but a good hiring survey. i think the real crux is that we
are forgetting that at any moment a ceo can push a button and say we're not going to hire anymore because they are used to being agile. you look at fiscal cliff and what's going on in europe. they are standing on guard ready to make decisions very quickly, so when the survey was done. fiscal cliff didn't seem to have as much energy around t.each day that passes we're hearing from our clients, we're going to hold off and we have to make sure. it's really the quickness in which they can do this. >> i was going to ask you if you did that survey today, i wonder whether or not the hiring plans would be a little bit different. if we go into recession or are go over the cliff, what do you think the survey results would look like? >> it's a great question, and, you know, of course, you can't get down to what those 18,000 employers would really say now because some still have demand and some would be less impacted and more impacted. we look at our clients and what they are trying to do right now. 27% in this survey said there would be no change, and the reason this number is high and
higher than we've seen, they are holding their hands tight. okay. what do i do? don't know what to do, but we're hearing also, you know what, as your previous guest said if i had some certainty i would feel a little bit better about hiring some people and adding that cost on and until we get that certainty, until we can get through some of this and more we're not going to see a lot of hiring. >> talk to us about where we are in the economy when you look at who might benefit and who not hire. the benefits in wholesale trade. leisure and hospitality. professional business services and information. this was the graphic we just showed. the durable goods manufacturing. non-durable goods manufacturing, transportation and hutilities. is this a normal pattern that you're seeing here, or what does that say about the economy right now? >> not quite as normal as if you were to go back in the last recession which wasn't that long ago but even before that. you'd see manufacturing having a much stronger number than that, both durable and non-durable.
when you're seeing leisure this high, you're seeing a lot of entry level jobs that do not pay the same amount of manufacturing being added at a faster pace. what you're seeing in professional and i.t. is companies are committed to increasing the efficiency and productivity, you know, which is to actually reduce overall the head count eventually in the company. companies are putting money into that, and we're seeing that go up in the survarks and we're also seeing, of course, health care but health care has kind of levelled off over the last few quarters. >> and we've also put up here a map of america with the best and worst outlook for jobs. i'm not going to bore people and go through all the states state by state, but my question is are there any surprises in the outcome in terms of the best and worst states for jobs? >> well, you know, i guess one of the surprises is with a the west came out very high. now a lot of this is where they were before with the northeast particularly what we're seeing in some of the financials and pharmaceuticals, which are bringing their staff down a little bit. the west is doing quite well, and i think what you're seeing is some of the confidence coming
out of housing, and we're going to continue to see that. >> got to leave it there. >> good to see you again, jeff. >> always good to have you on. >> thank you. >> you bet. >> "fast money" starts in a few minutes. here we are. "fast money" is coming up with melissa lee at nasdaq market site, and she's got a preview for us right now. melissa. >> hey, guys. apple tv, how much could that mean in earnings for apple, and what could it do to the stock? our traders and a top ranked analyst will give you the lowdown and you know sheikh omar abdel-rahman, he'll give us the outlook for restaurants in 2013 and where the next big empire for him is going to up. that and much more at the top of the hour on "fast." >> no room for haggling. scott wapner up next on one of the key money-making strategies to make hotel chains profitable. >> looking forward to that. also later, what you need to know for tomorrow morning's markets. got another day of trading. our wall street panel top money pros gives you a leg up in just
a few minutes so stick around. tonight our guest, thomas sargent. nobel laureate in economics, and one of the most cited economists in the world. professor sargent, can you tell me what cd rates will be in two years? no. if he can't, no one can. that's why ally has a raise your rate cd. ally bank. your money needs an ally.
scott joins us now with a preview. >> you can bargain for a new car an amrans, even a home, but don't think you'll get a last minute deal on a hotel room. mare yolt's revenue management guru dave roberts told me they've got good reasons for passing on your offer. let me give you another scenario. i walk into the hotel, i go to the frank desk, you have a few rooms available that night, say, sir, room is going to be $300. i say, how about $200? here's 200 bucks. do you take it? >> never. >> why? >> no way. that's called the fade. and that's something that -- >> there's a term for that? >> called the fade. if you do that, you've just trained that customer. don't book in advance. >> you'd rather that room go empty for the entire night than give it to me for less than what you would otherwise charge? >> yes. over time, you don't want to train customers to wait and feel like they can get a better deal. >> and for more insights and a
look behind the scenes of the hotel industry, be sure to tune into "hotel behind closed doors at marriott." bill, you have to rethink that strategy you were going to try, huh? >> i was going to try the old fade, but i guess not there. so, what is the best way to get a good room at a cheap price? i mean, you don't wait until the last second, is one thing, right? >> no. you have to book far in advance, because in that revenue management department that they have, they actually call it revenue management. i mean, they're looking at every last detail, when people are booking. that's why if you and me are staying in a hotel, we could be in a room right next to each other, you could pay $150, i could pay $350. they are constantly manipulating this. >> so, you have just trained us to go and knock on the person next door and -- >> what did you pay? >> hang on, what did you pay? how many marriott beds did you
have to sleep in before you got your full docdocumentary? s. >> we went halfway around the world to mumbai in india to see mare yolt's next frontier. everybody looks to china as the market that all of these fortune 500s next and many are, but india is a huge growth market for marriott. they have 15 properties now, they want more than 50 there in the next several years and that presents a whole host of challenges, security among other thing, that we take you through tonight. >> and, you know what, i'm going to tell you something, having lived in asia for over ten years, when you're somewhere really exotic and you want a familiar face or a familiar name, you see something like hilton, marriott, something, you identify with, it's a very good feeling. >> you do it. can't wait to see it tonight, scott. debuts at 9:00 eastern. another good one from scott wapner. >> thanks, guys. >> okay. give us just a minute and a
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our next guests are going to tell you what could move the market tomorrow. joining us, stuart freeman, peter bookbar and robert luna. stuart, why don't you kick it off for us? 30 seconds. >> okay, very good. well, you know, the market has been looking the last couple days, i think, for the fed to say that they're going to do more treasury purchases, as operation rolls off. they said today they would be. that's been a positive the last few days. clearly investors are watching congress. hourly, right now, in order to get a feel for whether they are coming together for the fiscal cliff at this point. advance retail sales come in tomorrow. i think they'll be better than last time. last quarter. and we're also going to see inflation. ppi tomorrow, and that's going to be -- look like disinflation. >> peter, 30 seconds. what are you watching for tomorrow? >> specifically in retail sales, i want to see what impact the hurricane had and look at what the beginning of the holiday season was. business inventories is
important. q-3 saw a big jump in the inventory contribution. tomorrow's october number that's going to be reported is expected to show the latest rate of gains since june. see if there's any give back from the q-3 lift. we need to see that relative to sales, to see whether there's going to be any inventory build that's unwanted. >> okay, last but not least, by the way, you hate a little bit more time there, robert, why don't you go on the clock? >> yeah, mandy and bill, tomorrow, i, too, am going to be watching the retail sales numbers. the consensus is for a gain of 0.4%. this number is going to help us take a look at the health of the retailers this holiday season and see if we can get this santa claus rally for investors. after that, my eyes are going to turn to the xrt. this is the retailer's etf. technically, i'm seeing the same patterns it's had before the last two breakouts. i want to see if the news tomorrow can help drive this sector and the market back to the highs of the year. >> gentlemen, it's clear.