tv Mad Money CNBC December 24, 2012 4:00am-5:00am EST
well, let's just say as the president closed tonight, it said things are just getting better. it is just the worst mistake. but there's just too much hatred between the two parties to put it off. put simply, sometimes i think they would rather throw us back into the recession than to betray their principles by compromising. the only way they know how to save the village is to burn it down. given the wanton hardship that beckons if we fall off the cliff and the chance of no deal is possible let alone one that can be reached in a few days time, why weren't we down much more? why weren't we off gigantically? why didn't we detonate? the market reaction brought about a successful t.a.r.p. bill
almost immediately tlaf? why didn't we crack? it looks like we couldn't raise the debt ceiling last year, after all, the cliff is every period as horrible as those nightmares, isn't it? there is no easy answer to why we didn't crash today. i heard all day, look off, a gigantic sell-off is right around the corner. i got tons of e-mails last night. i say anything is possible. but i wouldn't count on a sell-off of the magnitude of the previous round. here is why. the western financial world would literally teetering on the abyss. atms that might not have worked with the hefty cash control, possibility of endless bank
nationalization. as for the debt ceiling, the market just got that one wrong. just like with the debt ceiling deal we got last year, never forget politicians can always agree on something, something small until another time without any violation of principles. a politician took the tax increase pledge to the most powerful impact of the republican party. norquist can't vote for one. memo to washington who people think there could be a deal easily, these republicans don't fear the wrath of speaker boehner like they do the whip of norquist. in two weeks' time, we'll have a dramatic tax increase.
going over the cliff is the only way these norquist controlled republicans can spare the wrath of grover. which i believe having known grover for 35 years is indeed worth than the wrath of khan. so why bother to sell now? it's a pretty legitimate subsequent, can't it? now we rallied 7% from the november woes. and i believe we can keep selling off. not hard, but certainly a couple percent as more and more people recognize that we could be going over the cliff. even if this is why you shouldn't sell. pull back again. perhaps by getting the achievable goal by helping the middle class with tax breaks.
remember, it isn't a cliff where you have a hard landing. more kind of a jump on to a trampoline, maybe like a deep swimming pool. there is a recovery that is almost a certainty, but it could be a vicious belly flop where you come out and you're so red. jim, i think we should look for a grand bargain. instead, likely we get a smaller deal. it will be a letdown for those of us who would hope washington would recede into the background. washington should go back to being like the washington monument and the lincoln memorial. we have hedge fund managers who have bet we could have a benign finish to the year. it doesn't look like that's going to happen. heem go, here we go gn, it's going to be t.a.r.p. all over again. it's the same one we did today for actionar alerts.com. we judge the u.s. economy to be
strong, strong enough to survive a fall into a trampoline or a deep pool. housing, autos, thinking china related can be bought right here. this is an opportunity to buy not sell as we work towards a deal. it might actually take until the super bowl when everyone by then will have seen their truncated paycheck and you have to get a deal by then. you would have expected a much bigger sell-off today unless, of course, you recognize that a compromise is much easier reached in 2013 than 2012. if we only have to wait a short time before we get a kick the can deal from the government, better be a buyer than a seller. compromise is far, far more likely than not, despite last night's shenanigashenanigans.
jack in florida, jack? >> caller: i read your book. i enjoyed it very much. >> thank you. >> caller: i'm following a sector rotation strategy with some of my investments. currently in the material sector. and hoping to catch more of the housing uprise. but with the fiscal cliff looming, i was wondering if you would advise more defenseless strategy like consumer staples or something going into the new year. >> what i was thinking i told a friend of mine today conagra reported an amazing number. that's the kind of thing i would think about. nice yield. good growth. i think that's the best idea. why don't we go to brooks in ohio. brooks was here. brooks? >> caller: my question is about abbott, the split, how's it going down and which side are you on? >> good news today. the split will be included in the s&p which is why it was up. abbott is going higher. that's why my travel trust owns it. things seem dysfunctional in washington but even now it's better to be a buyer than a seller if you know where to look. "mad money" will be right back.
>> announcer: coming up, the world is overflowing with information and tibco helps make sense of ones and zeros. while the market is up nice for the year, its stock is now down big. does today's turn to the green mean it's time to logon or should you pull the plug? cramer's exclusive with the ceo is next. and later, high stakes. looking to play a turnaround in the people's republic? much of the chinese market can get lost in translation but cramer spotted a stock that could be your passport to profits from the far east and plus, buy like a bull. washington took a few steps back today as we crept closer to the edge of the fiscal cliff. who will outperform if washington actually gets its act together? cramer's got a stock that could make 2013 a year to celebrate. all coming up on "mad money." i always wait until the last minute.
sometimes when a company stumbles, a strength of underlying themes take tibco. back on december 5th, tibco did drop the ball. company preannounced a downside. credit where credit is due, they didn't make excuses. they said their sales force didn't do a good enough job. days to follow it wasn't so strong. normally after negative preannouncement my rule of thumb is to stay away for a couple quarters to see if management has a handle on things. results were slightly better than expected which is why the
stock jumped up 1.62. up 14% from where it was in wake of the preannouncement. if you bought the stock the last time ceo was on in july, you have lost 19%. so where do we go from here? let's check in with vivek ranadive, founder and chairman of tibco software. let's find out about the quarter and company's prospects. welcome back to the show. >> jim, thank you for having me. it's always a pleasure to be on. >> all right. when things are great, we say how come they were so great, what happened? you were very candid on your call. what went wrong and how are you fixing it? >> well, jim, we failed to execute in north america in our core business. it was entirely our fault. no excuses. we have made a leadership change and that takes effect starting now. but there were parts of our business that were very strong.
we closed ads 6 million deal with the spanish bank. visual analytics were up. there's no question there is strong demand for our products. we failed to execute in certain areas. >> okay. there was one -- i know everyone knows the federal government is having a tough time. they seem to have spent less with you than they did previously. the federal government stiff you? what happened? >> it was bad execution. i can't blame anybody but myself. we had a greater than 90% drop in that business and that's just bad execution. but on the other side we were up 50% in the west. we were you were 50%, 60% in the south and in the northeast. so we had great strength in many areas but areas like the government, the center region, canada, latin america, we had poor execution. >> now, you do some work -- this is the first time i asked you about this. for the oil and gas industry. what do you guys do for oil and gas? we know what do you for amazon, what you do for retailers and for government. i never heard you talk about
this sector. >> oil and gas is a big data problem. we look at massive amounts of data and define patterns so people know where to drill so that's on one hand and then on the other hand it's an integration problem. they have lots of sources of data that need to be integrated and they need to manage their supply chains so we are the infrastructure for that industry. >> so in other words like they get a reservoir map and you figure out what is likelihood of where oil could be found. >> yeah, yeah. we look at massive amounts of data and we find patterns in that data. no different than what i do with my basketball team. who do i sell jerseys do and who do i sell tickets to? where do you drill? >> you own a pro team. it's not a pickup game at tibco. >> well, my lowly warriors did beat the heat so oracle is next. >> don't get me in trouble.
don't get me in trouble with elison. he'll say, how did you let him get away with that? you did mention in the conference call that the 49ers went from worst to first by a change in the head coach. are you confident that you have done the equivalent that the niners did at tibco? >> i am very confident of that, jim. we have strong leadership in north america. there were parts of north america where we had great strength. there were areas where we grew and we have to replicate that model across the board. you have to rec, recommend, jim, last time i missed i went on to have 17 very strong quarters consecutively after that and the stock grew five-fold from that point in time. hopefully we can reproduce those rules results moving forward. it was entirely our fault. it was bad execution. >> how are you able to do so well in europe compared to america? is that just an example of you
were disciplined in europe and you got a lot of business? i'm trying to understand. europe is harder right now than america. >> exactly. that underscores the point that what we do nobody else can do. we want to make the offer when your wallet is out of your pocket not six months after you leave the store. you can go look in the filing cabinet that oracle or s.a.p. or microsoft has and that's the 20th century. we're all about doing things in realtime. we make you that offer when your wallet is out and your credit card is in your hand. nobody else can do that. that's a universal big data realtime problem that only tibco can solve. >> you mentioned oracle and s.a.p. and analysts that i checked in with say that ibm has come on very strong. >> ibm is our strongest competitor. we beat them every single time in terms of technical performance. they do have strong relationships and at the end of the day we have to be three years ahead of the competition and we believe we are. >> okay.
you had 25 deals that were over 1 million. last year you had 28 deals over 1 million. should we believe that therefore the momentum here has slowed to a point where it's noticeable? >> no, no. you have to remember, jim, over the last three years we have grown 38%. grown our top line almost 20%. parts of our business like visual analytics that grew. our metrics are generally strong. you have to remember that even in our disaster quarter, this was a disaster for us we still arguably did better than oracle did in their victory lap quarter and that's after spending $40 billion to $50 billion buying companies. our performance was a disaster. we know what we need to do to fix it and we will. >> you're a stand up to come on the show. i saw preannouncement i hoped you would come on. this is what viewers want. they want to know who comes on and who owns it and you did. you laid out a pretty good case. vivek ranadive, founder and ceo
of tibco software. thank you for coming on the show. >> thank you. >> this is a tough business he's in. it's entirely possible to miss a quarter or two as he just mentioned and then come on strong. go do the homework, tibco. look at what they're doing right. bet that vivek was honest enough to come on the show and that's worth something. stay with cramer. >> announcer: looking to make a turnaround? cramer spotted a stock that could be your passport to profits from the far east.
on a nasty day like this one, let's not forget that government doesn't control everything. we invest in stocks of individual companies. in an uncertain environment, few things are better than a company with an honest to goodness turnaround story. one that's not dependent on the doings of congress or the president. take mgm resorts international. mgm for you home gamers, a stock i have not talked about in ages
but i think it's time to step up to the plate. largest casino operator in vegas. vegas is hard hit. they have a sizable business in china. center project in vegas that this company was practically -- you couldn't write it off. burdened with vast amounts of debt and then a new ceo came in. he slowly but surely has been fixing mgm's past mistakes including the massive citi center project in vegas that drove the company to the brink of chapter 11. this is a turn that's been years in making but now businesses are starting to come back. you haven't missed anything so this is the moment. let me explain. not long ago it was a real sick customer. took on a ton the debt when las vegas was fabulous place to do business. when the vegas market got annihilate during the great recession, mgm was crushed.
think of it like this. i'm looking for analogies all the time. mgm was on its deathbed. company was on life support. gaming revenues tumbled from 2007 through 2009. the patient, it was slipping. then mgm got a pacemaker in the form of a new ceo when a one-time wall street gaming analyst took over in december of 2008 right at the height of the recession. vegas business stabilized in 2010 and 2011. the president said he didn't like trips there or something. the doctors are making improvements with mgm with rebound in chinese economy, mgm's business is getting a much needed hip replacement. on top of that management is doing the equivalent of spinal surgery to clean up the balance sheet and all those things together take the company off life support, out of the hospital, in rehab and back in business. let's go through this in detail. it's amazing. doesn't get any ink.
first, mgm's core business las vegas. through september of this year the vegas market experienced 12% increase in visitation and 3% increases in revenues and 2% increase in room nights occupied. it doesn't sound like much. after years of declines, visitation is now on track to surpass peak levels in 2006 and 2007. it's back. vegas is back. the big problem with vegas during and after the recession was the huge amount of overbuilding. have you ever been out there? it was like being in one of those chinese cities that has a lot of tier 7 or something. from 2007 to 2010 despite the slowdown, the number of rooms in the vegas strip increased by 15%. that was just way too much supply and not enough demand. that is lethal for pricing. >> the house of pain. >> now the overbuilding is in the past. >> house of pleasure. >> there are no major resorts on the horizon in vegas for the next few years.
that's good news for mgm which operates almost a third of all of the rooms on the strip and things are looking better for convention bookings. up year over year. i didn't think that would happen. they upgraded rooms where cramer stays. two of the company's prime properties. and they're coming out with new entertainment and dining offerings. things aren't going back to where they were before the recession. not yet. not yet. they are definitely improving. i think improvement will be dramatic in 2013 especially if we get the super bowl deal in fiscal cliff that we're talking about that should come in the beginning of february when voters realize how much smaller their paychecks are and mgm is having a year end clearance sale at the citi center property. monetizing. monetizing. then there's the balance sheet. this may be the single most important point of the story. when jim took over mgm's balance sheet was hideous.
it was just awful. in 2009 the company was in vital of its debt covenants. mgm had to pay down debt by selling treasure island, one of my favorite casinos, for $775 million. the company was given time to get its house in order. fast forward to earlier this month. mgm announced 4.8 billion refinance of debt. the company is paying sdoun its inner secured notes. they replaced it with new lower rate senior notes and term limits. this is what you really look for. this is a huge, huge deal. okay. for caesar's i want to buy bonds but here i want to buy the common. mgm stock popped on the news of the refi.
i think it puts a floor in the stock at ten and two bucks below where it is right now and they should pay $4 billion in debt in the next five years clearing up the balance sheet. let's talk about china. mgm owns 51% of the chinese subsidiary which is publicly traded on the hong kong stock exchange. they are one of only six companies that allows to operate casinos which is in the chinese las vegas but it's much, much bigger. we know china's economy is on the mend. that's good news for mgm china. they have one resort right now but back in october mgm got permission to build a hotel and casino on the strip which is a huge new development of macau. it will take years to get this up and running. most don't expect it to open
until 2016 or 2017 but gives mgm growth down the road. so the out years might be much better. that's it. growth guys love that stuff. mgm popped off lows. not caught the bottom here. if you wait for fiscal cliff related pullback, you probably will do better and you know they'll give us a couple. bottom line, in this uncertain environment, there's nothing better than a good old fashioned turn around story. mgm gives you a three headed turnaround. clean up the balance sheet, vegas is improving, china is growing too. bet on mgm when the fiscal cliff looms next strike and this as well as all other stocks get hammered. craig in my home state of new jersey. craig? >> caller: how are you doing? >> what's going on, partner? >> caller: calling about expedia. the recent inquiry. how you feel about that? >> i feel really good about that. i follow this closely. expedia is a good partner of the inn that i own.
i know how powerful they are. this consolidates them in europe. is it enough reason to buy expedia? i liked expedia beforehand. i like it even more now. shane in georgia. shane? >> caller: hey, jim. booyah from sunny, atlanta, georgia. merry christmas. >> same to you. i like the falcons here. i like them. i got julio. j.j. is on my team. he's done fabulous. i know he watches. thank you. go ahead. julio is a close fan of "mad money." >> caller: with the fiscal cliff looming and with today's pullback and available funds to be invested, las vegas sands is a fine sales to income growth in china, asia and nevada and with p & e of 26.9 in a buy recommendation reiterated today, is now the time to be on the las vegas strain?
>> i like mgm first. i like wynn second and i like lvs third. there are very little distance between those. they are all good. thank you, shane. thank you for calling. things are waking up in vegas, friends. add that to its improving balance sheet and strength in china and you got the fiscal cliff blues, don't let them get you down too much because mgm is being brought down to prices where you can buy, buy, buy. stay with cramer.
>> you're allowed to have a little bit. you have to go to your tax person on that. when you put it in, there's a limit before you get hit with that business tax. check that out. epd, they are all coming down. every single one is coming down. i want to buy. louis in maryland. >> caller: dunkin brands. >> i like it very much. i wanted to buy it for my travel charitable trust recently, but i own starbucks for that one. that's one that ginny mentioned at the top of the lightning round. brandon in oregon. >> caller: how are you doing today? >> it's a good day. how about you? >> caller: real good. my question is what are your thoughts on snap-on? >> it's one of my favorites. let's go to gregory in mississippi. gregory. wow, gregory. >> caller: thank you for taking
my call, mr. cramer. my question is on company wr grace. techer symbol gra. it's had a good run this year. i was wondering your opinion. >> i have to save that one. i used to know grace and i'm not sure what's in it and stock is red hot. i vow to be bullish about it if i can find out more about it other than the chart. we'll do work on grace next week. let's go to jim in the little state of delaware. jim? >> caller: how are you, jim? what's your take on pandora, the big p? >> i don't want no pandora. i like to have companies that have a clear end game and that one doesn't have it. that's the conclusion of the lightning round. >> announcer: the lightning round sponsored by td ameritrade.
>> yo, mad money. >> what's shaking? >> man, i lived in tents. let's go to karen in arizona. karen? >> what -- what -- you -- i'm sorry. the big -- >> booyah from beautiful wesley chapel. >> man, everybody is compared to where i'm from. i never say that. >> you're the sexiest man on tv, cramer. i'm always in the house of pleasure whenever i'm watching you. >> well, thank you. >> booyah from pittsburgh. how are you? >> i'm doing great. i have my pittsburgh steelers stoul. you, my friend, control your own destiny. >> so what did bob have to say about the action in goldman sachs? he thinks the technical picture frankly is down right beautiful. he's done what's known as a bullish crossover. that's where the black line -- i know this is difficult to see, but i've got keith going right to work here. this is a classic buy signal
right here. believe me, classic buy signal. i'm lible to start a fire! you can't start a fire without a flame. this to him is like the metropolitan museum of art. like that other exhibit. meats. meat. this year, more farmers brought animals to market because of the drought. so some people are worried there might be a shortage of hogs come next year. hot links. kielbasa. i'd rather eat a cold corn dog. well, check that. listen, this tastes better than the dog food i ate my first year of the show. oh, man. puperoni. this is darn good.
i always like to play devil's advocate here. the market is roaring. i say curb your enthusiasm. when the markets get pounded like we saw today, i try to be more constructive. that's why tonight i'm going to give you the over the counter investment fund. last thing you would think about. thursday night the house republicans couldn't whip up votes for their own fiscal cliff plan. speaker boehner says they'll be going on vacation without legislation. everyone assumes the fiscal cliff negotiations are done for the moment. suppose the newfound bears conventional wisdom is wrong. suppose if we don't go over the fiscal cliff or at the very least we get resolved with minimum destruction as i talked about at the top of the show. my super bowl see you in new orleans solution. i'm not saying this will happen. i'm saying this positive scenario is very much on the table. it has to be considered. and in that rosy okay things are all right scenario, good things
could happen to our stock market in 2013. let's say you're an optimist that believes the fiscal cliff will be resolved and they rise above. what's the best way to play a fabulous bull market that some think could be unleashed? simple. assuming that everything goes right, the best proxy for the market in 2013 is the blackstone group. the big publicly traded asset firm. why blackstone? a company that i wasn't keen on. the company earns money investing other people's money. private equity funds. at the moment the company has $205 billion in assets under management. that's the difference between where the congress is it's so much. it's as good as it gets. everyone says that. when you see someone who in the
business work at blackstone. they are a smart guy. that's the way it is. right now in this not so hot environment all of blackstone products are beating benchmarks. that matters. it's the end of the year. the business is good. in the last two years the company managed to raise 72 billion of new money from investors and greater assets under management, the more money blackstone makes from performance fees. this is how they're doing in an okay but somewhat troubled environment. now, let's think about this. suppose the fiscal cliff gets resolved quickly without wrecking the economy. i think washington is the only thing standing in the way of a worldwide surge in growth and profits. not just in stocks but also in real estate. if you take washington out of the equation -- my job would be so much fun. blackstone should zoom higher. first off, if the fiscal cliff does get resolved people will pull money out of bonds. they should pull them out of
bonds any way because deal if small will be inflationary. they're more likely to invest in aggressive alternatives with higher assets under management. for those of that you don't know, the private equity where you buy companies using borrowed money and you fix them up and flip them a few years later by taking them public. over the past two years, blackstone brought eight private companies in its portfolio public and in the next 12 months, they plan on doing another eight. it goes without saying that if we're in a bull market next year, blackstone will be able to realize much higher price which is it brings companies that it owns are public. this is a vicious cycle down. it's a virtuous cycle when things go right. they'll do more deals to capitalize on market strength. people always want to play real estate. it's hard unless you can buy a house. you can play real estate with blackstone.
since the beginning of the blackstone has put $16 billion into real estate, bringing the total real estate assets to $54 billion and they expect to monetize them in the near future. they buy assets that are in overleveraged situations that's how blackstone is one of the largest operator of hotel properties. and the largest institutional office space in the united states. they've been running out of office space and they have a ton of opportunistic investing when it comes to foreclosures. we're running out of homes. the better the economy is doing, hopefully from a bridge fiscal cliff, the more blackstone can get when it sells these properties. and then blackstone liquidity. of all assets they manage, they have performance fees on top of base management fees and these business performance fees are how you make the biggest money. down 127 billion. 66 billion or 52% is invested in earning performance fees. that means blackstone has 61
billion on sidelines they could put to work in a lucrative manner. right now blackstone sells for ridiculously low rate. they are the smartest people in the game. that's absurdly cheap. the reason it's so inexpensive is because while there are a lot of ways for blackstone to meet clarity expectations, it's opaque. maybe all of the above. in that happens, let's just say i'll admit i have not been a fan of blackstone. blackstone the stock. that's because the company chose to come public in june of 2007 at the peak for the stock market and the economy. to really do well a company like blackstone needs a thriving stock market so they can short the market. it can sell off private equity at good prices and that's the
situation we'll be in if washington gets its act together and resolve the fiscal cliff before it's too late. after the super bowl is the drop dead moment where it's too late. here's the bottom line. it's counterintuitive on a day when everyone is fretting fiscal cliff negotiations have fallen apart but if we bridge the cliff without too much damage to the economy, we could have a good bull market in 2013. given all of the things that can go right here, remember this stock is only for you, those of you who believe that washington can only get its act together before it's too late if it's a loser. blackstone is a loser. if you're a pessimist about the talks and less about the country in general. "mad money" is back after this break.
i always tell you please to stay the heck away from battlegrounds. stocks where there's so much heat that you'll end up withering in no man's land and that's no place for you as an investor. this week we got not one, not two, but three battleground stocks that crushed people and it's worth reviewing how horrendous they can be for your portfolio. three of the most controversial stories out there right now and controversy is something you don't want in your portfolio.
we isolated the smallest semiconductor company earlier this year as a terrific play on the big boom. mellanox reported astounding earnings beating what analysts were looking for and it doubled in no time. when the stock reached 120, the company announced the cfo was retiring for personal reasons. immediately dropped 20 bucks. we didn't care. we don't like owning stocks when the cfo leaves. we stuck them in the sell, sell, sell block. perhaps i was being paranoid. it was justifiable paranoia. the company reported inline quarter which started after the cfo left. moral of the story, it remains when the cfo unexpectedly announces his decision to depart for personal reasons, you must sell, sell, sell. and another one we put in the sell block was allscripts. the ceo said he would sell the company to bring out value.
we said don't be tempted. don't own the stock for takeover purposes when fundamentals are lacking, right? then earlier this week the stock sold off sharply cut in half from when i told you to dump it. why? the sale was called off. no buyers. and he was fired. battleground moral, never buy a stock on a takeover business if the core business is weak. why would any company be interested in purchasing it? you shouldn't be, either. finally there's herbalife. a company that we had come to like over the years but had grown leery of lately because of questions about how it manages it sales force. we were concerned that the stock had a big run yet our friend herb greenberg was raising red flags about how the product ended up in consumers' hands. how much of it was in the
consumers' hands versus ending up with newfound sales people brought in my other sales people that's the distribution model that herbalife uses. you don't go against him. his work is too high quality. too right too often. better to take profits and go elsewhere. who needs it? sure enough a famous money manager came on our air and said that herbalife is a fraud and will go down in flames. why hasn't the government shut it down? just tell the justice department if the ceo wants to stop him from attacking his company, why not sue him? more important though, i don't care who is right. i care about you not losing money. battlegrounds like this one must
always be avoided because facts stop mattering and emotions take over. three stories. three battlegrounds. run from and not to the battlefield. you'll be a heck of a lot safer and wealthier if you do. i always wait until the last minute. can i still ship a gift in time for christmas? yeah, sure you can. great. where's your gift? uh... whew. [ male announcer ] break from the holiday stress. ship fedex express by december 22nd for christmas delivery.
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