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tv   Fast Money  CNBC  January 28, 2013 5:00pm-6:00pm EST

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some of the more cautious comments were directed at europe. there was a debate on whether anything has really changed in europe. there is still a crushing debt crisis, even though yields have come down, helping countries like spain pay less to service their debt. but the crowd continues to see europe as the real weak spot in the world today. bottom line, this was a more upbeat crowd this year but last year there was a lot of doom and gloom among the participants on the heels of the collapse from 2008. and the markets had a great year, as well. so, stay tuned. we'll keep catching that. before we go, take a look at the day on wall street. we did have six wins up until not for the dow industrials. today, we snapped that winning streak with a decline on the session, down 14 points at 13,881. nasdaq up just a fraction and the s and sp 5&p 500 down just fraction. yahoo! up after the bell. much of a 3.5 % rally has disappeared for yahoo!, as the stock is flat on the extending
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hours trading session tonight. that will do it for "the closing bell." thank you for being with me. hope you'll follow me on twitter and google plus. have a great night and see you tomorrow. stay with cnbc. "fast money" begins right now. >> live from the nasdaq market site in new york city's times square, i'm melissa lee. here are tonight's top three trades. taking on amazon. is walmart the biggest threat to the online retail juggernaut? currency wars. how the weak yen is hitting car makers here at home and how you should be trading the race to the bottom. and hot or not? has apple lost its mojo? carter worth has a contrarian call you will not want to miss. first, let's get to the markets. taking a breather here, but are you a buyer or seller as the dow and s&p are headed for their best in decades. grasso? >> the market trades as a whole, right? and you trade it with it. but i wound up buying google right before the earnings were up. i caught that $50 spike.
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i added to my position. caught that $50 spike. i sold out. i believe in the story longer term, but i did buy apple, which i don't believe in longer term, but i bought that on friday, due to an oversold condition. >> so, overall -- >> individual -- on a macro market, i believe the market is coming in. that 1361, the long-term trend line in the s&p cash is probably something we will see. >> i think there are a couple of interesting things going on. if you look at the sectors hitting all-time highs, small caps, mid caps -- >> trannies. >> trannies, too. correlations have been coming down. at the end of last month, correlations were down to 32.4, from 47.2 in june. which indicates that this is a market of stocks as opposed to a stock market. >> well, and cross asset correlations have been coming down, too. for a fund manager, it is some what helpful to be able to add that by going to different asset classes. when you look at those different classes, you look at bonds,
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particularly in the uk and japan, they are going down for the wrong reasons. they are going down on bad economic news. so, that's the kind of the black swan out there i'd be very concerned of. lots of news coming out of china, i know people say some of the news was good. some of the stuff i saw wasn't so great. you are starting to see a slowdown there. so, answer your question from the beginning -- >> yes. >> i was a seller today. >> about time. >> took awhile. >> i know, didn't it? >> worth it, though. >> that's it for me, though. >> the macro is very good. the durables numbers were good. i expect we're going to get the rest of this week, adp and payroll and if you are looking at the four-week trend on the jobless claims, things look okay. you've had more components of the s&p and technically oversold territory than we've had since 2004. this is a market that has run very fast. as you said, i mean, volatility is so low -- >> it is. >> overbought. >> sorry, overbought, thank you. and therefore, it's a great place to be picking stocks. it's been a place, karen
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mentioned this, she buys puts during this time to allow us to stay long. but when people are hedges with entire end sis, it's not working for them here. i think as a stock you picker's market, it's a great place, but you can't have it both ways. you are not seeing them respond on the short side and you better hope you are on the right side of the allocation trade. >> in terms of volatility, the s&p on average has moved .24% every day on 2013 and that's certainly come down versus the .59%. nearly more than half a percent in 2012. >> look at what happened to the vix today. the market didn't really do a lot and the vix actually starting to perk up a little bit. i think it was up, i don't know, 5%. oh, look at that. so -- i think that sort of is interesting. i still think even at this level, those puts are cheap and worth owning if you want to stay long and ride this bull patient. >> yahoo! is up smartly in the afterhours session, earnings just coming out. let's go to john forn fortt wit
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latest. >> hey, melissa. a couple of things before the conference call that could have had a dampening effect. one is guidance in the slides they are providing along with their call. they give a guidance range of 1.07 to $1.1 billion in revenue for q-1. the street was expecting $1.12 billion. for the full year, $4.5 to $6.5 billion in revenue. the street wanted just under $4.6. so, they are guiding to a midpoint below what the street wanted there. and in the current quarter, other revenue, which includes listing feels, royalties fees, that sort of thing, was a bigger percentage of revenue than usual. about 23% in q-4. it's normally 19% or 20%. i expect there might be questions about how big of an impact that had on them slightly beating revenue in q-4.
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>> is that going to be the biggest issue on the conference call or something else you're looking for? >> i don't know if it will be the biggest issue. they haven't been giving guidance recently. there will be questions about what, about the environment, leads them to these particular numbers. also question about strength in search and whether they'll continue to see that strength. and the relative weakness in display advertising versus what people have been expecting. seems like they were getting better pricing on display ads but a lot fewer of the ads appearing. i expect if that's due to a shift to smartphones where yahoo! doesn't have a lot of adds right now and if they expect to monetize that traffic soon. >> jon, thank you so much. keep us posted on the developments there. revenue came in at $520 million versus a consensus of about $554 million. where do you stand on yahoo! at this point, tim? >> i stand on based what they're going to do with their buy-back. this stock was up 18%. i think people are waiting on this and waiting to see how they
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can monetize the rest of the balance sheet. i don't see a whole lot of organic growth. i think melissa has done a great job trying to bring forth this value. i don't need to own this stock. i think these are the drivers, people are waiting for the buy-back term. >> back to the markets here, because stocks are on track for the best january in years but could now be the time to sell. we're joined now by carter braxton-worth. this could be a contrarian call based on the bullishness on the street. >> well, that's part of it. but what happens is, you get rapidly priced increases, over and over and over as you reach an intermediate top. and we have this kind of flavor. look at the s&p mid cap. we've moved 16.5% in the last two months. we're up 14 in the last 18 days. the angle has changed but there's no vary gans. almost no buyers offsetting it. just up, up, up every day. this is overdone. now, on the other hand, yes,
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there are stocks that are underdone, if you will. something like an apple. and we think just as it is contrarian to call the market as overdone, we think apple is the opposite. so, take a look. $425, $735 to $425. a big round trip. it's a mature intermediate decline. $705 to $435. four months in the making, 35% down. it is incredible in its inact -- it's an epic bounce candidate. >> when you flag them as sort of caution, it's because of the parabollic moves, because it's been such a short amount of time where the moves have taken place? >> exactly. and the volume in the case of apple is almost 10% turned over in the last two, three days. that's typically car that athar. the s&p equal is at an all-time
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high. there are just a few dulds holding it back. >> just because a stock is underdone, why is there an assumption that it needs to goo back to the mean? >> right, well, it's not a question that it has to and this could turn into a kodak. something can be overbought and oversold. it's about the crescendo in volume and the sure magnitude of decline in terms of its persisten persistence. you're talking about unrelenting four months down 38%. and here's the best part. there was a gap exactly a year ago, from $425 to $450 on a good news report and we've round tripped the entire thing. all the euphoria has been expunged. >> grasso, you have a question? >> $435, you stated a level of $425. i looked at $435, thought it was extremely bullish it held there. that meant to me it wasn't going to close that gap back to $425. i'm looking for -- i don't know,
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let's call it $460 for the first stop, $461 or so. but i'm looking for this stock, if it continues to confirm, i'm looking for back to $500. do you disagree? >> i think even higher. i think you have a good trade on. you have $525, even $550 on your hands. >> carter, i have a quick question. you talk about the reversion of the mean, i like this trade a lot. this is the real pain trade out there, people being short of apple and long on the s&p. when you look at this, if i take this back to june of 2011, apple versus the s&p still probably has a ways to come back. probably 5%, 6%. how far back are you taking this mean? what is my time set to make this call? >> as an intermediate player, this is the call to say the september, january decline is mature, four months, mature in terms of magnitude, 38% and it's round tripped the entire move from $425, $705, $425 and we think it basically abates here.
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>> carter, i heard you talk about the volume crescendo. has it met that? i didn't see a volume chart understood beneath that. >> no, i don't have that here but i can just tell you in the days, you're talking about 10% of the float. that does not happen in things like ge and microsoft, meaning this is reaching the point where people literally are panicking. they're saying, i have to get out of it. and that's what you need, sadly, for the end to be at hand. >> carter, real quick, what do you think about the other side of my trade. i sold google, able to add to it under the $700 range. what do you think about selling today and looking for lower prices, trying to recapture retracement on that now? >> i think that's great technique. if you count the bounce for earnings, jumped up to $770 and now if you can get some fade back to $725, put it on again. but perfect. >> steve -- >> good job, grasso. round of applause for steve. >> you surrounded, though. >> surrounded the trade. >> carter, do you like steve's
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tie? >> what do you think of the other side of steve's tie? >> carter, always good to see you. so, we ask now, has apple, though, lost its mojo, even if it does look technically good? according to an article in "the wall street journal," apple may be losing the coolness factor but barron's says apple's glory days are not over. smartphone woes in general, not necessarily apple versus samsung -- >> i don't think apple's alone here. samsung was down right defensive in their guidance if they gave any at all in terms of, they are pointing to seasonal weakness coming up. i think samsung is much better positioned. i think they have the barbell. they are high end, low end, and they dominant the low end. apple is six in china, samsung is number one. if you look at what's going on here, the trade is really to be short samsung. if you look at the pressure going on, this is what we started to put on last week. this is something that you can stay in, because this is a stock
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that at some point is going to have to catch up with the lofty expectations, as well. not expensive, will continue to grow. but a chart that looks broken right now and south korea is, i think, on the currency side, giving something back, because they are worried about the strength of their currency. that's another part of this trade. >> profit margins were declining for samsung and so is revenue growth which is very similar to what apple had. >> this is something that actually dan nathan pointed out to me. samsung's profit margins are 14%, 15%. so, if apple really is going to be going after that kind of, maybe not lower end, but at least going after some of the samsung stuff, you're looking at a very big contraction in profit margins for apple. i'm actually short ewy if you want to short that market. >> straight ahead, "fast money" is where battles brew. but we will, of course, get to that story and the latest new on yahoo! earnings. two traders go head to head over goldman sachs. plus, u.s. automakers get caught in the kros fire of a current si
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war. the impact straight ahead. and why walmart is becoming the biggest threat to amazon. we get the bottom line, howevers before the online retailer reports earnings. back right after this.
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welcome back to "fast money." shares of vmware getting hit this afternoon. companies earnings topped expectations and posted a 22% growth for revenues in 2012. problem is, it is forecasting only 14% to 16% growth in 2013. wall street analysts were looking for growth of about 18% for the year. not a very pretty looking chart there, melissa. >> it is now. bertha, thank you. b.k.? >> yeah, i mean, the problem they have here is, everybody has their software already. they are starting to really get
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some saturation in the marketplace. getting a little competition from microsoft, though i'm not sure that that's really the big factor here. it's just that everybody's bought the product already and it's going to be tough. >> let's talk about amazon. near record highs once again. how are you trading ahead of earnings tomorrow? grasso, you've been in and out of the name and you are fine and excellent with good technique. >> i've been looking at the name since $194. i've loved it. i've been a proponent of the stock. i watched it trade up. i'm afraid i'm going to jinx it. so, i have never actually bought the name. just loved it. >> really? >> talking about surrounding the trade. >> yeah. >> for me, i'm always bullish on the amazon web services. i'm bullish on a whole bunch of things with the name. but at these levels, i would wait just a little bit. >> yeah. piper had a note out saying that march guidance, essentially,
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they sandbag. guidance is usually between 3% 6% below street consensus. it will be interesting to see how the stock reacts in 24 hours if they do that once again or if it is so expected at this point that it's nothing. >> they have a wide range here. they have people that are saying, this may be a different quarter. goldman is saying they are 23.6. they are at the top end of consensus. they are the ones saying, look, as expensive as amazon is, this is a generational thing going on. the move away from retail. these guys are going to continue. the biggest run away story in the seconder. so, they are able to get comfortable, north of 21 next year if you look at these numbers. that's -- and if they miss that number, this is what scares me about owning a stock like this. no question amazon is growing and stealing from the traditional retailer. for how long they do that, at these rates, i don't know. >> technically, if apple -- when apple sold off, it went to google, ebay, into amazon. that's the way that people trade these names, like a bucket, all
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the high fliers. if apple rallies back, it's going to be coming out of amazon. >> they could lose out to a brick and more or the when it comes to smartphone sales. debbie, why is walmart getting aggressive on smartsmartphones? >> we saw it in the holiday season with apple for sure and one of the reasons we downgraded apple because of their aggressive stance on the sales over the holiday season at walmart. >> so, is this going to be a lost leader for walmart. they are going to get the cheap cell phone and pick up other higher end things? >> it's one of the things walmart is getting aggressive with. you pick up the ento and get your cell phone service through walmart. >> why can't amazon just lower their prices? isn't that what they've done with manior aspects of
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merchandise? >> well, they can. they can start to offer cell phone service, as well. at this point in the game, walmart's had the advantage. what we're starting to see walmart get much more aggressive with is do more with third party sales. what walmart has not typically done in the past is use, you know, let's say consumer electronics has a loss leader. or as something they've invested in price. it's more been food, which is obviously a high frequency business and toys. and so i would say consumer electronics is a new avenue for them and smartphones being obviously a very hot, you know, a very hot, newer item for them, and apple being, obviously, a very good partner for them, as well. >> deborah, it's karen. i'm not optimistic that walmart getting the p.e. multiple that amazon has, but is 14 a little low? what is your target and how do you get there? >> so, in terms of, you know, walmart, obviously, i think that
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where they're trading at right now and, in 2013, we have them at 13 times, on 2012, they are trading at 14. we have them at a 15 multiple and that gives 18% upside from, you know, an $82 target price where we have them at today. obviously there's a lot of opportunity here domestically, where they have started to rachet up their growth. when you think about an aging population having stores closer to, you know, everyone so they don't have to dirive as far. but i think that they and probably amazon and probably somebody else will eventually get, you know, fresh, you know, something in terms of fresh groceries delivered to the door and that will be a very strong growth category for them. >> all right, deborah, thank you for your time. deborah weinswig over at citi. are you confident this could actually help walmart? >> it's hard for anything to move the needle when you that big. i own walmart. you know, i feel like at this
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price -- it's worth owning. i hope that moves the needle but i don't know. >> yeah, i think it's -- i mean, she made a great case but it's hard to say that if somebody is coming in to buy a cell phone, that's a one-time purchase, a loaf of bread, clearly, is more than that. >> three times a week sometimes. >> exactly, depending on what you're cooking. i don't know. i'd be a little skeptical this would be, as karen said, move the needle for walmart. >> i think deborah is probably, and this is her sector and she knows it, but she's drilling almost too deep. i think they're going to benefit from mobile proliferation in general. i think the kindle continues to make advances both in its product line but its geographies and this is where amazon is posing significant competition for walmart. >> okay, coming up next, following the latest developments out of the yahoo! earnings call. plus, what this could mean for your portfolio. first, get ready to rumble. brian and karen debate if goldman sachs has theed goos for investors.
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welcome back to "fast money." i am jon fortt with the latest from the yahoo! earnings call. yahoo! ceo marissa meyer
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pointing out a few highlights. usage of flickr up 25% since they redid the ios app, getting good uptake. the cfo saying some changes in search including a quick predict technology from microsoft helped drive revenues there that are highest since q-3 of 2010. marissa says she's going to talk more about yahoo!'s growth plans a little later in the call. guys? back to you. >> jon, thank you so much. men time, citi and douceutsche k downgrading goldman sachs. time for a street fight. karen is our bull, b.k., the bear. karen, start with you. >> well, the reason i like goldman sachs, a couple. the quantitative ones are the obvious price to tangible book value, which i think is unique ly low. if i look at the last ten years
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of that metric, 45% lower of the past ten years. trying to even out for the ups and downs. those are value-driven. those are two big things. but the rest of it is qualitative. we could see improvement in a lot of lines of their business. m and a could improve, equity trading could improve. this is one of the premier management teams in the world. it is a premier financial services franchise. and, lastly, i think that their reign as one of the most hated companies in america is coming to an end. probably to be replaced by apple, i think. and for all of those reasons i think that, you know, we're used to things now trading at this multiple to book and i don't think we should be. i think -- >> dude, you're toast. >> i don't think so. >> she is the -- >> i know. >> reigning champ so far. >> i got this, though. >> odds are against you. >> let's go to commercial now. >> all right. bear case. >> what you got?
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>> first of all, let's go with technical. if you look at goldman sachs, it is bouncing against a five-year down trend line. that's what caught my interest at first. secondly, when we look at valuation, you can look back at the last ten years, but the problem with the next ten years in this capital markets is not going to look like the last ten. so, if you look at the rally over the last three months and price to book, we're bumping up against the high end of the price to book ratio. but most importantly, what really, i think, is the problem with goldman sachs here is, t y their underlying business is deteriorating. a report last week talked about trading volumes on every single asset class including derivatives declines by 20%, but i don't think that market is coming back and for a stock that's up 13% in 20 days, it's hard for me to buy here. >> i think we ask carter. did he leave? >> he left. he took his sweater and he left. tim, what do you say? >> both great points.
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i think the fact that their comp levels are -- essentially efficiency on comp is never going to be this good. i think this was wind at the back. i don't think they have this going for them. i agree with karen that some of their stuff is coming back. i'm going to have to do this on a short-term basis, i'm going to have to back my man beeks here, because i think goldman is overdone here. it's not that they aren't coming back, they are. and i've said that with everything that's reported. i would get out of goldman sachs. >> wow. grasso? >> we flagged this at $119 and it's up to $144. it runs into resistance around $149, but if it crosses over that level, goes to $160. >> so, what does that mean? give me the bottom line. >> short-term i agree with beeks. if it does cross over there, you can't fall in love with an ideology. if it crosses over $149, be a bull. >> and you can take that to the bank. >> both are right, just within
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different time frames. >> fair enough. >> i guess. >> you are going to say that's lame. >> little bit. i mean, basically because i lose this thing every time i play, so -- >> that's true. >> i can't argue with anything brian said, but -- >> all right. let's move on. money flows out of bonds. the yield on the ten-year climbing above 2% for the first time since april. for more, let's bring in dennis gartman of the gartman letter. is 2%, close to 2% enough to squeeze people out of this long bond position? >> no. well, i think people are coming out of the long bond. no question about that. i think they're going to continue to come out of it. we begin seeing it a month and a half ago. you're going to continue to see it. 2% was an interesting number today. we peaked up above them, came back underneath it. my guess is that we're going to go back through 2%. i -- i've been in this business awhile and i can remember trading the long bond. the long bond at a 15% coupon. so, for me to see 2% on very short-term instruments less than five years is inconsequential.
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i think we're going to take ten-year instruments back to 4.5% in the next two years and money -- that will be very clearly, as money comes out of debt market, moving into the equities markets because the economy is doing better. equities will go up, the bond market will go down. my mentor in this business, gary shilling will take me to task for this, but for the first time in 20 years, gary is probably wrong. money is coming out of bonds. >> so, how bullish does this make you, dennis? >> well, for the last two months in my fund in canada, i've been long s&p futures and short the ten-year note. i see no reason to change that position. the only course of action that i have to make is, i make changes once a month in the fund and it's coming up tomorrow, the decision will be, do i buy more stocks, do i sell more bonds and i'm probably going to do that, i'm probably going to continue to buy more stocks and sell more of the ten-year note future because that's what the trend is, that's what the market's doing and i think that's going to continue for some while.
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>> and in terms of areas of the stock market, which ones, because we have a lot of sectors hitting 52-week highs or all-time highs for that matter. where are you going? >> if i'm going to make a punt on an individual stock and i'd rather not do that, if i'm going to make a punt on an individual area, let me go to shipping, rail roads, steel. they have been boring, i'm a boring stock trader. i'm bullish on stocks generally, i'm bullish with the s&p generally. that's the easiest way for me to effect the trade. >> dennis, good to see you. >> thank you, mel. always good to be here. >> dennis gartman of the gartman letter. pops and drops now. p drop for joseph a. bank. >> this is a lay-up. something like buy four shares get one free today, something like that. don't touch it. stay away. >> pop here for waste management, up more than 2%. grasso? >> there's been discussion of a reconversion, though the company denies it.
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stock goes up a lot more if that's the case. not sure. i'd stay away. >> pop for hess, up 6%. tim? >> getting out of therefining business. big pop. >> chi ppotle, beekers. zblf if you are in it, you want to take some profits on it. i'd be afraid of the food inflation. >> and we have a pop for mantyhose. >> is that guy? >> from moisturizing genes to meggings, we have been all over the fashion trends. this is manty hose -- >> i can't way to see who is wearing those. >> panty hose for men. they are tightly squeezing their way into the american market. >> what is that? >> one manty hose maker had to create an extra large size for men above 198 pounds. >> that is sweet. look at that. i mean, i needed a bigger pair
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of manty hose. i tell you what, it's nice to know i can fill those things out. >> let's leave it at that. ahead on "fast," we go off the charts to find out what's on brian kelly's watch list. how the plunging yen is hurting u.s. automakers. back after this. ♪ [ male announcer ] don't just reject convention. drown it out.
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welcome back to "fast money." time now to go off the charts with brian kelly. in fact, we're going off to japan. >> we are. it's been a very popular trade, being short the yen, long the knee kay. but it's long in the tooth. if we look at dxj, it's starting to hit up against resistance around $40. that's really where resistance is. 11,000, here we go, nice line. so, what i would do here is, i'd start to get out of dxj, start taking profits. and the reason why is, if you look at japanese government bonds, those yields are going up for the wrong reasons. over the weekend, we had some news that japan was going to rely less on debt and more on taxes. you would think that bond yields would go down on that. but you can see here, they've really popped up.if japan start
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of their bond market, it's going to be a big, big problem. so, you get out of the dxj if you have the ability to short japanese government bonds, do it now. >> and tim, some of the other fundment am reasons that are going on in the population of japan, people are older, they're saving less, i mean, the savings right now is the same here in the united states. 2%. >> yeah, i think this continues. i think what's fundamentally different is that japan is actually seeking to pursue a budget deficit approach. they are effectively a trade surplus, budget surplus country. they are really pushing a weaker yen. this is leading to mass currency war talk. this is a big theme in davos, something that we've been hearing out of the emerging market countries. what is interesting now, a couple of the places like brazil and south africa, have inflation issues and they cannot weaken their currency that much. i think we continue to hear this. i don't think the move on the yen abait bates until we get to dollar. >> and if we get to that point,
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that could be good for the japanese automakers. they reported record global sales today. general motors was unseemeded at the world's largest car maker by toyota, which sold almost 10 million cars. are japanese car makers getting unfair advantage? matt blount is the president of the american automotive policy council and the former republican governor of missouri. pleasure to have you with us. >> thank you. >> and you penned a letter to the obama administration, asking them essentially to let japan's new ruling party know that the u.s. will retaliate for poll sills that are aimed at weakening the yen. what does retaliation mean in your view? >> well, i think there are a number of things that they could do. there's talk of efforts they could take, similar efforts they could take in the global currency market. really, i think, the first step is to recognize that this is a serious problem that effects american manufacturers and american workers. certainly effects auto workers
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and auto producers in our country. and let the japanese know that it's not acceptable. as you all pointed out, the united states is not the only country that's concerned about this. other nations are talking about the impact of this devaluing of the yen. and they are doing so really to sustain a model that doesn't work anymore. america's auto manufacturers are on a tremendous come back and they are profitable, producing great product, expanding and growing, leading the country in terms of end poxports. we've gone through a difficult and painful restructuring and the japanese are trying to avoid that. they are trying to sustain an outdated product. and that doesn't work anymore and certainly the only way it could work is at the expense of the united states and other nations. >> right. and governor, i think we can see this bourne by the data.
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japanese auto sales have been down but they added capacity to their factories to export the cars to the united states, which have a subsidy here in the u.s. boil it down, though, in terms of the actual impact on the automakers. what does this mean in terms of profits, for every yen per dollar that it weakens or any other metric that you want, let investors know exactly the nitty-gritty of the impact of the weakening yen. >> really just since october of last year, the yen's been devalued by about 14%. that essentially means they can hold their prices the same and increase their profits in terms of yen by 14%. or reduce prices by 14% and still make the same amount of profit they were making previously. as you know, there's not a lot of auto products that have a 14% profit margin. so, it really has a significant impact on our ability to be competitive and the ability to continue to add job unless the auto sector in the united states.
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>> mr. blount, how does it fit into the political equal when you see foreign countries making cars in the u.s. how much between a rock and a hard place do you think president obama is there and how much -- is that important at all? >> well, actually, if you want to encourage foreign direct investment in the united states, you ought to be concerned about this. obviously the appropriately valued yen can cause them to place production where their sales occur, like in the united states and other markets. you ought to be concerned if you want to see that sort of foreign direct investment to continue. certainly it has an impact. they're exporting half of their product. that's not a sustainable model unless you do so at the expense of other nations. >> what is an appropriately valued yen? >> well, it should be set by the marketplace. and it shouldn't be set by these efforts to devalue it. really to get a trade advantage,
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which is what's occurring today. >> okay. governor, we're going to leave it there. appreciate your time. fascinating topic. governor blount. >> i would just say, he's certainly naming a very contentious issue but you can't tell mel that the u.s. hasn't benefited from a weaker dollar for the past five years and you can't tell me that u.s. expor r exporters don't love the dxy at 79 and change and stuck there, by the way. be careful. >> and we haven't -- we, the u.s., hasn't been successful in telling other countries what to do with their currency. we never have been. >> never haven be. and with the federal reserve with a $3 trillion balance sheet, it's difficult to go to somebody else and say, you can't do this. this is the big issue. keep an eye on the currency wars. >> quickly, to get a trade? >> i'm looking for a 12 hand on the stock with ford, it has to retrace 50%, the big move it had from $11. >> let's bring in scott nations. noticed unusual activity in
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ford. scott? >> that's right. ford options got quite a bit more expensive for the reasons that grasso just laid out. much of that option buying was focused on the weeklies, the options that expire this friday. and call biluyers are bulls tha want to find their risk. so, we saw call buying today. around midday, we saw a buyer of 2,000 of the weekly $14 calls that pay about 19 cents for the calls, that makes the break-even math really easy. $14.19. but this call buyer is shooting for $14.30, which is a high and a double top. >> scott, thank you. coming up next, c nbc's jane wells deking up the best business stories from the west coast. jane? >> hey, melissa. everything out here in california is more extreme. coming up, the biggest local tv deal ever. the most expensive ever sold and the dumbest move by an actor, all in the golden state after the break. ♪
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jane wells? >> melissa, the dodgers and time warner cable have announced a new cable channel starting in 2014 in a deal that will reportedly last 25 years and total between $7 and $8 billion. the lost ever for a local tv deal. at an age when sports programming costs a lot, "the l.a. times" estimates the dodgers channel would cost $5 a month on top of a new lakers channel costing 4 bucks. gosh, what if you are a clippers fan? and melissa, how much will the market bear? >> yeah, that is the question. >> it's scary stuff. they can overpay for hanley ramirez, josh beckett, carl crawford and they don't need to fund it and pass this on. msg's been doing this. this is a thing that has made this stock go a lot higher. i think it will continue to go higher. this is bad for fans, very good for the networks and not good for baseball. but you guys get overpriced kind of average talent out there, jane. sorry. >> yay. all right, the hard-hit real estate market just got pulled up by a single sale of a single
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home. i'm sorry. bless you. this home in silicon valley's woodside has reportedly sold for $117.5 million. the most expensive residential sale ever. designed by allen greenberg, the pool house 1,100 square feet. melissa, we don't know who the buyer is. >> congratulations, karen. you did a great job. it looks wonderful. have a lot of years of enjoyment. >> i didn't know ace greenberg was an architect. >> no, he can run the company. >> in terms of the trade, though, obviously, we've seen all the data so far indicating a pickup in home sales in general. >> yeah, it's hard to -- it's gotten so frothy, though. i had to sell some last week. that's how sad it is. >> unraveled that overbought situation, so, a lot of these names, you think can't got any higher, but when you think that, they rachet up. i'd rather be in home depot. >> i would have loved to have
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been the realtor. imagine that commission. finally, an apple a day keeps the doctor away, but too many apples send you to the hospital. ashton kutcher says he tried to hard to get into character of steve jobs that he tried jobs' extreme all-fruit diet and had to go to the hospital. reviews of the movie are not particularly healthy, either. >> it's not a good thing. i'll just say that.
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my children were very little and they ate a lot of fruit, it was igly. >> yeah, yeah. >> all right. >> jane, thank you. you learn something new every day. still to come, we play a round of good, bad and ugly. karen's in the hot seat. that's next. twins. i didn't see them coming. i have obligations. cute obligations, but obligations. i need to rethink the core of my portfolio. what i really need is sleep. introducing the ishares core, building blocks for the heart of your portfolio. find out why 9 out of 10 large professional investors choose ishares for their etfs. ishares by blackrock. call 1-800-ishares for a prospectus which includes investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses. read and consider it carefully before investing. risk includes possible loss of principal. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 hours can go by before i realize tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 that i haven't even looked away from my screen. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 that kind of focus... tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 that's what i have when i trade.
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let us play the good, the bad and the ugly. one of our favorite games here at "fast." in november, karen gave us the fine print on timken. take a listen. >> this is a stock that i think is actually very attractive. even here, even with the runup yesterday. i'm hanging onto all our shares. >> nice call. shares of timken up 15% since you laid out the fine print, karen. what do you do with it now? >> we trimmed a little. like, 10%. so, i still, nine-tenths into it. >> all ball bearings these days. >> yeah. >> movie quote. >> onto the bad. >> okay. hit me with the bad. >> wasn't that it? >> that's it, i'm done. >> here's what she said. >> so many metrics that set up great for the value proposition.
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you know, cash, net cash and great balance sheet, big sales and all of that. smack dab in something that's in such flux, i wouldn't touch it. >> well, shares of dell have popped up 42% since then. karen -- a little bit -- maybe a little bit unfair because it's moved higher because of other reasons, not fundamental reasons. >> but you know, when you're in this business, you make a lot of decisions, and sometimes you make what i think is an okay decision and it doesn't come out the way you hope. dell's one of them. i don't regret that decision. i do this all of that is true. if you have to be in it with the hope of a buyout which is not really my thing. i've made so many other bad decisions that led to bad outcomes that we didn't choose. owning hp at all in the first half of 2012, at all in 2011, that was a bad decision. so, this one, yeah, would i like to have made that much none in dell, absolutely. but i don't view it as a bad decision. >> right. >> that was a genius acceptance
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speech for the good, bad and ugly. totally -- >> i could do a whole show on bad decisions. we don't have that much time. >> wow. >> finally -- onto the ugly. and this is one that everybody here can partake in. a couple of weeks ago, our traders were talking apple ahead of earnings. take a listen. >> we got the signal between 482 to 492. buy it for a trade. >> looking for the market to be as negative as they possibly can be, now's the time to play the other side. >> somewhere around actually 480, the stock has bottomed. >> has us getting longer. little nervous. >> that was ugly. >> shares are down 10%. the company taking a big hit. our bad here. but we certainly have had many other good calls. first move tomorrow when we come right back. stay tuned. i'm only in my 60's...
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