find collection will be sold in august in southern cal. among them is this 1936 pack card. now, car collected cars for 40 years. kept them on his property. he passed away and now the cars and dust that cover them could be yours for hundreds of thousands of dollars. when the wealthy are paying literally paying for dirt and dust, there's too much money in the world. >> we've had the story from you and now the dirty car story. robert, thanks. >> thank you. let's get back to headquarters. wapner and the "halftime." >> carl, thanks so much. welcome to the "halftime" show. four hours to go until the close. on the wall is where we stand on the street. dow industrials with a nice gain. 100 points. s&p, just a few points away now from its all-time intraday high. nasdaq is the out performance today. talking a lot about technology. here's what we're following on the half. inside the hedges. cape kelly exclusive on which

star fund manager is schooling his peers and exactly how he's doing it. the great debate. after a dreadful six months, what now for apple? two of our traders take their kisses to the jury. first, the top story is trading tech. it may have been a great first quarter for stocks, not so much so for tech, second worst performing sector in the s&p. apple has been a big part of the problem but it runs much deeper. in fact, facebook, cisco, microsoft, oracle, ebay, qualcomm, and intel all underperformed. our question today is what, if anything, can get the space going again and which are the names likely to lead the comeback. we're trading the hakz with pete, mike murphy, steven weiss, and stephanie. why is tech going to start working now? >> i think there are certain areas of tech that will start to work. i hate to lump these into one big area. i like the storage area. when you look at western digital and see how they perform you are talking about big data. people are swarming towards these areas. obviously with the cloud that

plays into the amazons of the world, google, apple, across the board. but i think the one lagger in the names that really sticks out for me, judge, is emc. i look at this name, the fact it was a $29 stock underneath $24 a share, i think there's plenty of upside there. when you look at the earnings per share, growth that they had in q4 of 2012 and the annual revenue growth, this is a company that's starting to move to the upside. vm ware has been the noose around the neck, that is starting to get released. the stock is ready to go much higher. >> mike murphy, is tech going to start working? sglts. you're going to start seeing money flowing into tech. to echo pete's point a little bit, you know, it's tough when you lump all of tech together. i mean, a couple of names that i think, let's just get it out there on the table right now. apple is a name that's too beaten down. the sentiment has gotten too negative. you will see apple start to rebound, regain the 450 level. another name i like is facebook. facebook, i think a lot of people don't completely

understand what their strategy is and how they're going to mondetize their system but i think they will run up towards the ipo price. >> how long are we going to have to wait for that? stock had a nice run and disappeared. it hasn't done anything. >> to 32. it ran up to 32 and sold off dramatically. down about 20%. >> i think that's what i mean. only performing down. >> exactly. now you're looking at $25 range and you know that you have the big news coming out on thursday. a lot of people feel that at this announcement facebook is going to make that they may announce a phone. if they do, that would be a big pop for the stock. your risk is definitely to the upside, very little downside. lastly, ebay is is a name that, again, sold off big. you can get in the name here. pay pal is going to be a monster. lots of upside for ebay. >> pretty good year of data. almost up 11%. stephanie, you told me yesterday that tech was going to start working. i don't know why we should believe that tech is going to turn around? why will there be a rotation

from the sectors that led the rally, health care, utilities, et cetera, all of a sudden now into technology and these names are going to be the winners? >> fourth quarter these stocks lag and you get the i.t. budget flush that we didn't get in the fourth quarter. you will see businesses spend more. i think job creation also is a positive for the group. but i'm looking at companies specific, scott. i'm looking at oracle down 12% since they recorded a horrible quarter. it was. there was not a lot of good there. i think a lot of it can be fixed. much of it was sales force problems. they didn't close the deals. they started to close the deals in the fourth quarter. they've got new products. great balance sheet. the other one i like is isbm. it's kind of boring. way to play technology. double digit, low single digit revenue. they transitioned from pcs into the faster growing businesses. i think over time you're going to see better revenue growth. and stocks trading at 11 times

forward estimate. finally, really good quarter in a tough government. and bookings were impressive, in consulting and outsourcing. >> pete, this sounds like the kind of sourcing that green talked about. you're going to have to be an expert stock picker to pick the winning names. >> yeah, it's absolutely right. we're seeing it more and more as we look at the market. seeing sectors that are just thrown for dead. and then sectors that just underperform because they can't get enough momentum going. if you take a look at tech. you really got to divide it into a very large cap, mega cap which haven't worked with the exception of probably an ibm even though that stalled out quite a bit. and the ones that have more growth opportunities in problem of them. the ones that i like, despite it being a big stock and big company and perhaps being in the middle of a nuclear war, the samsung. they are selling at seven times earnings, historical range has been seven to 11 tooims aimes a

are clearly a leading innovator. their phones are going to move dramatically. you have to trade around quarter quarterers. they blew the last quarter, not an uncommon circumstance, but the management came in and bought a boatload of stock added to their holdings napts going to be a consolidating business at one point. >> down 15% year to date. >> absolutely, which is why i like it and i bought it after it came down. one out of every four retail transactions happens on a smart phone. that's not what the infrastructure was built for. so they are handling the traffic. they're also growing their security business. and that's a great business to be in. i think that starts to change. i think it's relatively cheap. i'll give you within more and that's csc, computer sciences. similar business to accenture but a lot cheaper and a new ceo came in about a year ago. turned it around. had a huge move. i think it's still inexpensive. one more. >> all right. >> allscripts. the health care, particularly hospitals, are going through the roof because of obama care and

there's no bad debt anymore. this benefits from that and they've have a new ceo coming also. >> are you sure you're done? all right. you're done. >> i don't know. i'll get back to you. >> next guest is, in fact, betting on a tech turn around. media tech capital partners and managing partner there. great to have you out here. >> great to be here. >> you heard the view of the traders. >> they took the words right out of my mouth. >> do you agree with all this? >> absolutely. we're going to see a nice lift. tech is where it's all going to happen. there's one -- i agree about facebook, they will have a phone on thursday. it will be a specific android operating system that's going to be superb. the problem that facebook is facing right now that nobody is talking about now is kik, the uk company that's got 400 million teenage users on mobile and it's taking away from facebook's 1 billion user base. >> do they buy them? >> not yet. not yet. it's all free. it's really hurting the carriers more than it's hurting facebook because they're still staying on facebook but they're using the

carriers for free. >> why is a phone a good thing? >> the phone is the only thing. all mobile, all wireless. the 17-year-old kid who sold his company last week to yahoo! he said, marissa has got it wrong. it's not mobile first, it's mobile only. and he's right. he said it. >> i get that. but why going into the hardware business which is historically a lower margin business, why would that be a good thing? facebook, it's not like they're going to have the only phone out there? isn't that an admission 245 you're not getting a real stake on the other phones out there? >> i'm not going to disagree with you. facebook had serious fundamental problems. they never really figured out how to put advertising on mobile and they think if they own the hardware and software, maybe they will attract some of madison avenue's money. >> why all of a sudden is technology going to start performing to the way that certain people think -- we're in the middle of a sleeping revolution in technology, big data.

it's been there almost as long as apple tv has been talked about. but big data is changing the way everything works. industry, retailing, security, and the big companies that you guys all talked about. ibm has spent $16 billion in the last 2 1/2 years and bought 35 companies in big data. they see it now as $20 billion add-on to their regular business. you're going to see the cloud storage companies that you guys talked about boon because of big data. there is so much that's going to impact on the revolutionary way -- i saw a headline this morning that said, the media knows more than you know about yourself. and that's because of big data. everybody is contributing to this huge, huge cache of data and it's starting to be analyzed and artificial intelligence companies are going to boon. >> you're a believer in the apple story. >> absolutely.

>> you say there's going to be a red bound. why? >> apple is going to come out with a new apple mini ipad. they're going to come out with a low-cost next version phone for developing markets. they will get over their t. hurdle in china. they got their knuckles wrapped last week because of the warranty versus the state-controlled two-year warranty. they exceeded, tim cook made a very unusual apology to the government. >> what about margins from these products that you're talking about? those are going to actually drag down margins and how does the stock react? >> margins will be hurt. and they're going to have to face the reality of competition that's going to be driving the prices of hardware down further and further. whoever it was who talked up samsung. why aren't they doing anything? where is their adr? i mean, that's a really, really smart company right snou. >> let me ask you about hewlett-packard which you like.

>> yes. >> goldman sachs downgrading to sell today and they say sentiment moved ahead of reality. isn't that the case? >> i think hp is misunderstood. i'm looking at the big data side of hp where they have the enterprise franchise and they have the technology. yeah, they got killed on autonomy and they took a $6 billion write-down but they got the ip and the artificial intelligence. they're going to be a power going forward. >> let me ask you one more thing about apple and then we'll leave that discussion. i read a tweet from somebody who said the biggest problem that tim cook has is that he's not steve jobs. the questions are back. can he ever get out from under that shadow? >> probably not. but he's going to do a lot in his favor when he announces that he's going to increase the dividend, which he will do. he's going to have a whole array of new prungt products. the apple tv that we've all been waiting and holding our breath for for ten years, it's going to happen in the third quarter. >> it's good to see you as

always. thanks so much for coming out here. courter bibb onset was. want to kick around some of these plays? hp, anybody like that one? goldman again, cuts it today. best performer last year. >> it could cut it. legacy, margins are going down. their pc business, dell goes private, they'll just kill them. >> pc is up 50% of revenues. >> they're trying to restructure themselves if i'm not incorrect and make it more like an ibm. >> exactly. >> it's the board that bout autonomy, it's the board that has had every misstep. >> does apple have that moment in china like other companies have that really caused them to stumble? that's a big question that hasn't been answered yet. coming up, the market continue to march to new highs but how has hedge funds faired in the first quarter? and, shares of apple have fallen nearly 30% since its high in september. two of our traders noi debate whether the tech giant has bott bottomed.

back at the halftime report. i'm josh lipton. carl icahn apparently tireless. his latest move taking a 9% stake in nuance communications. the company, a speech recognition software maker. icahn's stake representing a passive position. the stock right now up about 5 1/2%. scott, over to you. >> josh, thanks so much. carl not getting much sleep lately. that's for sure. goldman sachs hitting apple with

a body blow today, removing the stock from conviction buy list. it's still rates the stock is a buy but what do our traders think? mike murphy is a bull and nick is our bear. you're up first. >> apple is a screaming buy down here at these levels. we can talk about the valuation. we all know how cheap it is. we can put that aside. >> cheap at 700. >> well, apparently it wasn't, right? so down here looking at where we are currently in the 430 range, technically the stock rolled over from 450, came back down. we're longing it. valuations is one of it. give did increase is coming and that's one reason. it's more about the product. the sentiment has shifted so negative on apple we believe the new products coming out are going to be, again, they're not going to disappoint. people are going to jump in to own these things like they have in the past. >> two problems that i have with that. i think they do increase the dividend. the problem may be do they increase it enough? everybody looks at the cache

that they have. are they going to tap into the overseas money? i don't think so. i don't think they're going to be able to get what the street really wants. >> if they got something like where the president passed the law where they would bring that money back into the country without paying tax on it you would change it? >> when is that going to happen? this has been something that everybody has talked about for months about how they're going do share buybacks. everybody has been griping about what to do. >> and the stocks come down. >> and i think we may pause a little more. i'm not necessarily a bear but i'm not a bull yet. >> i got them, scott. he's backpedalling here. >> no, not at all. they missed the phone. i've owned this stock as well for multiple years. i'm fine with it. i want to add to it. i haven't found a reason yet to add to it but i will say this, they missed the boat with the large screen but that's coming out in the second half. >> gavel comes down. steve weiss, who made the more compelling argument? >> you buy apple in the 420s. that's where it always rests. when it goes up to this level

and 440 you think you missed it. buy it lower. here's the stephanie alluded t are twice what the rest of the worlds are in phones. they have to come down. they are no longer the dog with the tail wagging. they are the tail there and it's not wagging. >> iphones in europe -- used iphones are selling for over $1,000 in europe. >> i want to sell that person some real estate, okay? >> what people don't understand about the apple phone, it's a computer and they have missed the boat with the larger screen. when they get on board, second half of story, larger screen, then the stock is going to scream to the upside. >> tell white house you think won the debate. tweet us at cnbcfastmoney. we will have the results as we always do at the end of the show. well, the markets have been celebrating rourd hie ining rect everyone is feeling so yeuphori coming into the second story. kate kelly has this story. >> the s&p may have been up 10%

for the first quarter but the average hedge fund was up 3.3% according to preliminary numbers from marm lynch. that's partly because they sold stocks and ♪ s&p and nasdaq 100 and put money into commodities and u.s. dollar. the report says, causing no m. to miss the stock rally or have less exposure than they might have. one trader who found himself in the middle of the pack this quarter is steve cohen, typically out performs his peers by a wide margin. sac was up 4% through tend of march putting them a tick higher than the average and raising questions about whether the firm's legal overhang is affecting performance a bit. but dan lobe's third point fund continues to rip it. notably his ultrafund which is the levered offshore vehicle up 13.3% for the quarter. yes, you heard that right. big winners for loeb were new positions. the gas supplier up ans a ston nishing 49% this quarter. loeb also did great with yahoo!

japanese macro play. the nikkei's remarkable strength so far this year. david teper has been long japan, too, scott, which i'm told are real li good results although we don't have exact numbers yet. >> i want to know if underperformance in the hedge funds and chase foreperformance going forward is one of the things that could help the mafrkt, you know, obviously the bull case of why stocks would go higher. >> hedge funds have been cautious. they're hedge funds. if you're really long like lee is, up 9% for the quarter. i think -- well, the other you mentioned is because -- >> confidential there. >> but they have to get involved. the question is they're waiting for the market to correct. so many people talk about it before they put money? >> at what point do they say, to hell with it? this thing is not going to correct to where i thought it was and i have to get in? >> here's the problem they have. the problem they have is they've been telling their investors they underperformed because

they're negative on the market. -- and they're market on yooirp and chi europe and china. now they say we're not negative on them anymore without anything having changed. puts them to n. a fun ni position, contradicting themselves. >> i think the merrill point points to ambiguity. coming into the quarter a lot of hedge funds were net long to a larger degree and they took some of that off, reflecting concerns perhaps that we could have a hiccup here or later this summer. they put money in the dollar and commodities which have not been strong. they made wrong moves in the short term t at least. we'll see if it bears fruit later this year, of course. >> loeb is feeling good about himself? >> this not even his best years. >> misconception. >> right. >> he's had a number of, you know, 20 and 30% years. so actually compared to that he's underperforming. but, of course, he's doing much better than the average right now and really interesting ideas. it will be interesting to see if they can sustain their performance this first quarter.

virgin media obviously great timing there. >> yahoo! has been one of the big tech stocks that has done well. >> of course, in a successful proxy as well. >> kate, thanks, as well. kate kelly. coming up, two big names falling on down grades today. we will reveal those names and tell you if t t analyst t got it right. gold falling to a fresh three-week low. we're heading to the futures to see how the smart money is playing the slump. we'll be right back. she's always been able to brighten your day.

it's just her way. but your erectile dysfunction - that could be a question of blood flow. cialis tadalafil for daily use

helps you be ready anytime the moment's right. you can be more confident in your ability to be ready. and the same cialis is the only daily ed tablet approved to treat ed and symptoms of bph, like needing to go frequently or urgently. tell your doctor about all your medical conditions and medications, and ask if your heart is healthy enough for sexual activity. do not take cialis if you take nitrates for chest pain, as this may cause an unsafe drop in blood pressure. do not drink alcohol in excess with cialis. side effects may include headache, upset stomach, delayed backache or muscle ache. to avoid long-term injury, seek immediate medical help for an erection lasting more than four hours. if you have any sudden decrease or loss in hearing or vision, or if you have any allergic reactions such as rash, hives, swelling of the lips, tongue or throat, or difficulty breathing or swallowing, stop taking cialis and get medical help right away. ask your doctor about cialis for daily use and a 30-tablet free trial.

welcome back to the "half tile report." here is halftime of the tale of the take. humana defeated health care and cigna, four topper formers of the s&p halfway through the trading session. look at what the other ones are. health care is surging ahead today. nasdaq, hewlett-packard, southwest airlines and u.s. steel are the worst performers today. now let's get our top three trades. first up on the list, u.s. steel is falling again today. down 24% this year. steve weiss, what's the story, what's the trade now?

>> if you short this is a gift that's going to keep on giving. merrill came out and talked about lowering estimates but you've got way too much steel being produced, being produced in china. you've got being dumped in europe. there's over-capacity there as well. they don't need it given their economy. you've got iron ore prices that are collapsing or will collapse and hold up actually relatively well. so that whole commodity index is coming down and i think it will continue to come down. >>, nasdaq is doing a deal today and the stock is down 10%. >> they are doing a deal. i think it was a good deal for them, however, they overpaid. if you saw howard on, i believe he was on the carl quintanilla this morning he couldn't keep his smile away. he was laughing at the price he got for this. paying -- they paid up 12 times for this same, 750 million. if you're in this name, it may work long term but you wouldn't want to be -- if i had it right now, i would be holding for the long term because this deal they definitely overpaid. >> have you ever seen a ceo so

giddy about a target? >> he was. >> we got 12 times revenue. regrettable. >> good reason. >> he was a happy man. for sure. pete, exxonmobil, what's happening here? the stock is flat. >> i don't go along with this downgrade at all. i was hoping the down graid would push the stock to the downside to get an opportunity to get back in exxon. it's a name i like. they have a great ability to give this shareholders what they want, which is some of that money back that they're making. they got plenty of cash. i think that some point in the near future they raise that dividend. 2 1/2% yield. great performing stock. great performance in nat gas. overpaid when 245i got in but now they got it it's a good thing. >> gold is getting dinged today falling 1% to the lowest level in three weeks. for more, let's go to futures now host, jacqui deangeles. >> that's right. today's drop comes as they publish a big note declaring the gold era is over. jim at the cme, my question to you, have we seen gold tap out? >> tap out forever, no. definitely short and medium

term. the direction is down. imperfectly fine with that. for me to be a long-term bear in gold, i have to be the fed is going to act responsibly longer term. i'm not there yet. what's more likely is the yen had a down fall. it started to bounce back. we expected a bigger bounce. the bounce has been muted. so if the yen is going to continue lower and there's no reason to buy the euro right now that means dollar strength that means our economy is comparatively the best ship in the harbor right now. so if people buy the dollar, gold is going to go down. i'm fine. down to 15.50ish. >> it should do gown in the short term. can anything save gold? >> jackie, i don't see a whole lot out there. if you look at the charts of gold, the higher, the highs have been lower. you have definite resistance now between 1602 and 1604. as jim said, the ultimate number is 1550 . if we get through that you're going to see 1500 pretty quick. next stop is 1568. >> 1568, we'll be watch that.

we don't want to go below 1550. that's what these guys think. how about you? do you believe with jim's call that the gold era is over? go to cnbc.com and vote and catch our live show today as well because it's not just the gold era that would be over. they say crude's bull market run is ending, too. he's going to tell us why at the top of the hour. sco scott, back to you. >> see you online in half an hour or so. sotgen is not the first one to say that it's over. credit suisse said that several months ago. >> i think that's right. gold is to me an emotional trade. when you see there's going to be high inflation you run to gold. check your asset values. there's no inflation anywhere despite the at sterchts of the fed. >> yeah. >> i don't think there will be because i've defy anybody to tell me how they value gold. is it worth 900? i hear people swear it's worth 900. just don't know.

it's an emotional trade. i'm staying away. >> people have called to get off the gold train for years now and they've been wrong. tough. >> are you saying they're going to be wrong? >> i think gold is going lower. >> you do? >> technically speaking. it's tough to say where it's going to be in five years but right now it looks like it's rolling over. >> i'll settle for the end of the year. >> have it like next few weeks it goes lower. >> charts right now are broken. gold, silver, they can't seem to get that mojo back. next up, hmos jumping on decisions made on 2014 medicare rates but is it too late to get in on this healthy trade? weir heading to the floor of the new york stock exchange for answers. can the bulls push the s&p to new record highs? we've got a guest with 22 billion under management with what could derail the rally. more "halftime" right after this. ♪

[ cows moo ] [ sizzling ] more rain... [ thunder rumbles ] ♪ [ male announcer ] when the world moves... futures move first. learn futures from experienced pros with dedicated chats and daily live webinars. and trade with papermoney to test-drive the market. ♪ all on thinkorswim. from td ameritrade.

at a dry cleaner, we replaced people with a machine. what? customers didn't like it. so why do banks do it? hello? hello?! if your bank doesn't let you talk to a real person 24/7, you need an ally. hello? ally bank. your money needs an ally.

welcome back. a big win forinsurers. official news broke yesterday after the close, it appears the information was leaked with names like humana spiking in late day trading and peaked as always, you're watching for this type of unusual activity. >> right. and several hours before. just wonder what the timing of the leak is. i don't know if we've got the charts of this but if you look at some of the options out there that were trading, the april 75 calls for instance, you were seeing chunks start to trade on the april 75 and the april calls. bought give or take for $1.20 a call and went over $8 today. april 70s went up to $12 a day, judge. when you see the big blocks trading in a blame like humana that does not normal lly like ts makes you scratch your head when they get the good news the last hour of the day and looks like washington, d.c. leaks are a lot

worse than anything we see on wall street. >> those are some interesting charts. grasso is down on the floor of the stock exchange. steve grasso, that is. tell us how to trade the names based on the fundamentals. steve, it's going to seed you again. >> good to see you guys. >> pete brought us some peculiar looking charts, to say the least. >> on a day when the numbers come out, though, and pete can agree with this as well, you always have guys making bets in the option world. you have guys making bets in the equity market. there's a lot of information out there. so i wouldn't necessarily say this was insider information. >> i don't think anybody is saying that. but -- >> but, steve, think about this. the interesting part is, nobody was going for the downside in these names. it was all going for upside, with almost as if they had a hunch that there was a really good hunch these numbers were going to reverse. >> think about this. in middle of february you had that numbers saying that the reimbursement rates were going to be lower by 2%. so the bet would have obviously been to the upside because people would have bet that it would have been higher, not lower.

>> steve, what about the fundamentals of these companies in terp ms of whether to buy th or not? >> humana, that's why you see the action in the stock. you know what, there's going to be a premium taxed on a lot of these companies. before you get in at these levels, i would let them sit for a couple of days. let it breathe and see where they really fall. i would assume that most of this is already in the name. a lot of these have popped so aggressively that it's possibly downside versus upside from here. >> do you agree with that, steve weiss? you like a lot of these names, don't you? >> i do. and another analyst to steve's point did come out and say they are going to revise the numbers up. that's exactly what happened. i think health care's sweet spot. i think the hospitals better because the government is biggestbig est customer and that's going to be no bad debt. >> off the radar screen is wellpoint because they've lad a lot of problems with prior management. they have a new ceo. he's got a provider background so i think that stock, it's

lagged and it's worth a look, especially as this guy kind of rolls out his strategy. >> sounds like -- >> the one thing i would ask stephanie is, a lot of these names post the supreme court ruling on obamacare, humana was up 37%, aetna up 59%, cigna is up 70% from there. a lot of names have already run. i think it's all in the names. >> that's why i go to wellpoint because it has lagged. it's trading at eight times earnings. historically traded 10 1/2 times. and again, this new guy has something company-specific that we can get excited about. we have to hear what he has to say but i think transparency gets better. i think you can take oh. >> do your point they took out a lot of these guys were looking for more medicare, medicaid exposure. cigna took out health spring. wellpoint took out amerigroup. >> steve, good to see you. >> thanks, guys. >> steve grasso, talk to you soon. dow is setting new intraday highs in delve of the past 20

trading sessions. next guest is starting to get a bit more cautious. jason pride, collector of investment strategy. jason, welcome back to "halftime." froo nice to see you. >> thanks for having me. >> we keep pushing past highs or setting new highs and here we are on the cusp of the all-time intraday high. >> yeah, i think we have to kind of look at this and recognize that, you know, first of all, i want to make sure you guys realize we are long term, bullish for the equity markets. fixed incomes a sets are priced underperform over the next ten years. investors have to take risk. but at the same time, that doesn't mean that you just buy anything any time at ni price any day as you move through this market. there are a lot of things that you can do to position portfolios differently. we also have been seeing recently that the economic metrics are leading indicators, have been softening a bit. we think we're still in a period of deleveraging.

returns are still probably going to be light but returns on risk assets generally relative to fixed income are going on the relatively attractive. we've been advocating investors need to take risks but be selective in the risks that they can take, that they take. that means taking risks in fixed income where yields are attractive, bank loans, emerging market debt. taking some risks in equities but not really all of the way out the risk spectrum. really staying in the hi quality dividend paying growth companies. perhaps even selling calls against the equity portfolio to generate a little bit extra return. and positioning portfolios to be maybe a little bit defensive within that equity portion but still constructive on a long-term return busy. >> so your near term cautious it sounds like. long-term bullish. what kind of pullback are you looking for? it sounds like you're looking for something. >> it wouldn't be unfathomable to see a 5% or 10% pullback in the market when you already see a 10% run up year to date.

5% to 10% pullback would not be out of the question. perhaps even something larger than that is -- you don't know. these sort of numbers come about on one-month, three-month basis. what we do know is long-term returns are still perhaps a little bit subpar well relative to the historical return and volatility is still going to be high even though we may have been through a period here for two or three months where volatility has been relatively low. >> two topics are runs that we don't get every day. colgate, palmalolive and philip morris. >> right. is point is you're taking equity risk but you're not taking equity risk all of the way out. slower growth, more volatile, deleveraging still environment, companies like that can eke out long h term returns for shareholders and deliver that with half, 75% of the risk of the broad equity markets. >> i understand that you like

these names for the long term but staples have actually been one of the breast groups and it's one of most expensive sectors to own. are you concerned about valuation? >> well, it's a choice of what you would rather have. if you're trying to defend portfolios with some positioning, instead of being blind and buying all equities, you have a choice of putting in some bonds in your portfolio or taking a position of investing in some defensive equity assets. we think those defensive equity assets are more attractive than positioning in bonds at this point in time. so those tend to be more higher weight. you remember the ore there side of this story we're almost have no representation in treasuries within this portfolios at this point in time. >> jason, thanks so much for coming on. appreciate it very much. >> thank you. >> all right. jason pride. the biggest pops and drops now in midday trading. new mont mining dropping 3%. >> it's a bellwether. it's cheap when you get a good dividend deal. it's not one i would like.

>> southwest? >> yeah, the whole airline complex is down. they are getting pricey. steph the week before, i sold mine two weeks ago. they just got ahead of themselves. too much came -- too much momentum. i think buy and reload a little lower from here. >> hertz, getting a little pop. >> they had their investor date today. they raised guidance over the course of next three years. management basically did everything right on this -- in this presentation this morning. this is an angle we've talked about it a lot recently. if you're still long hertz, this is where you go. we bought them this morning. this way you're do tl for the upside but protect yourself if the market has the correction everyone is looking for. >> pfizer? >> when you look at the pharmaceuticals, talk about an area that's been producing to the upside. across the board, pfizer just participating along the way. gives you a great yield. you can understand why people are t attracted to it. look at trading around 12 right now. one of the names along with

bristol, lilly and the rest that i think has plenty of upside. a lot of people going there for safety. up next, if you think there's no money to be made in europe, think again. one manager reveals the beetden down names he's buying right now. later, we'll head to twitter to give you the trade on the stocks you wanted to know most about. we'll be right back after this. ♪ ♪ here we are, me and you ♪ on the road ♪ and we know that it goes on and on ♪ [ female announcer ] you're the boss of your life. in charge of making memories and keeping promises. ask your financial professional how lincoln financial can help you take charge of your future. ♪ ♪ oh, oh, all the way ♪ oh, oh departure. hertz gold plus rewards also offers ereturn-- our fastest way to return your car. just note your mileage and zap ! you're outta there ! we'll e-mail your receipt in a flash, too.

it's just another way you'll be traveling at the speed of hertz. and never back down. who believe the american dream doesn't just happen, it's something you have to work for. ♪ we're for those kinds of people. because we're that kind of airline. and we never stop looking for a better way. it's how we've grown into america's largest domestic airline. we are southwest.

welcome aboard. so you want to drive moreseconds safely?t. stop eating. take deep breaths. avoid bad weather. [ whispers ] get eight hours. ♪ [ shouts over music ] turn it down! and, of course, talk to farmers. hi. hi. ♪ we are farmers bum - pa - dum, bum - bum - bum - bum ♪ and coming up on "power lunch," north korea keeps the

threats coming. we will talk to peace negotiator and former u.s. senator george mitchell about our strategy and the magnitude of those threats. a judge's ruling may be putting your pension in jeopar y jeopardy. we'll tell you exactly how. plus, are you a fan of footies? we're sitting down with liverpool's managing director. i'm not talking about the pajamas here. i'm not talking about the pajamas. liverpool, the soccer team, the football team and the big business of soccer. how did the english premier league or barclays league get to be such a global player? now back to scott and the "halftime" team. >> thanks so much. is it time to go bargain hunting in europe? katrina dudley manages the five-star rated mutual european fund and think it's time to start buying beaten down names. welcome. >> thank you for having me. >> why is now the time when there's still so much concern about what's happening there? maybe another shoe dropping, especially after cyprus. why is now the time to get in?

>> because europe is a cheap market. if we look at it plastic free cash ploe flow, dividend, price to earnings. cheapest developed arkt market out there. >> for a reason out there. >> there are reasons to be negative but that's our opportunity from our point of view. with all the headlines people are flowing the entire market away. we're looking at a good time to go shop for cheap stocks in europe. >> where is the breast opportunity? >> we like saffron which the an aerospace company. this is a company that sold the engine a number of years ago andes that engines need to come back into the shop for a shop visit. when they come back in, the spare parts are profitable, they get four times the corporate average margins. trading up. it's got a good dividend yield. we think there's more room to run. >> you like king fisher in that group as well. >> we think that europe is going from an austerity focus to a

pro-growth focus. it's going to benefit the macro environment. king fish, is home depot of europe, is suffering. and so the multiple's are very cheap and we look at it. buying a stock with a very cheap multiple. it's trading at 12 times depressed earnings. it's got a self-help story there as well. >> we are talking about a very select group of companies within a very select group of countries? yes? you're being quite selective on the countries that you're willing to find and invest in, right? >> yeah. we'll go shopping anywhere in mutual. we are looking to buy good companies at the right valuation because you can buy a good company at the wrong price and it's a bad investment. >> steve weiss? >> if you look at what happened in europe throughout the whole cyprus issue, which is that the spreads between funds, spanish and italian debt didn't budge. europe was not worried about it. does that mean that we bottom from a sentiment stand point which will lead to higher market and that we don't really care if we bottom from an economic

standpoint? >> i think -- the people you talk to say things haven't gotten any better, they're worse. >> the they stunk. >> right. 2 numbers, still at an all-time high, 12%. by the way, before the whole european continent blew up, italy didn't grow their gdp for ten years. so why in this type of environment will they grow it at all? >> cry have a look at what mario monti has been able to accomplish in europe and in italy in particular. and that has been phenomenally reforms that he's put through. and we think those reforms are really what's going to start growing the european market what's going to start leading to growth in italy. >> what if the reforms were reversed by the incoming administration in italy? what if you get a comedian as the president of italy. >> only italy could elect a comedian to lead the country. >> when you look at europe you look at the financials, they've been decimated. that's an area where you may at some point in the near future see an opportunity. are you looking at anything that tl that looks like a good buy at

these levels? >> we're looking at the financials which are trading at a discount to the book value. we saw a lot of value in the insurance names. we own an insurer in belgium which is a gs, trades at 60% of the book value. we look at the value of the franchise franchise and think that 40% discount is it completely unwarranted. >> what about countries? you're very company-specific, but what countries? where are the areas that you actually are seeing promising, in terms of growth or opportunity? >> i think the theme of last year was the north versus the south divide. i think that that export trade, where people were looking to buy new european exporters, who sold these products anywhere by in europe is kind of long in the tooth, so we are looking for domestically oriented companies, so they could be based from france, the uk or anywhere, but the companies that have really suffered under the all tert regime, we think that regime is coming to an end. >> we've got to run, but cutting

rates for now? >> i'm not willing to bet on that. >> it's good to have you on the show. >> thank you. >> katrina dudley. coming up, you asked for it, and we're going to deliver. four plays on four stocks, you can make your next smart move. today on big data download, it's all about dividends. the st. they'll join courtney reagan. no investors to consider in the current market environment. surging for that term alone are up, you can catch it on "big data download" and on the cnbc mobile app..

how do traders using technical analysis streamline their process? at fidelity, we do it by merging two tools into one. combining your customized charts with leading-edge analysis tools from recognia so you can quickly spot key trends and possible entry and exit points. we like this idea so much that we've applied for a patent. i'm colin beck of fidelity investments. our integrated technical analysis is one more innovative reason serious investors are choosing fidelity. now get 200 free trades when you open an account.

welcome back to the "halftime report." i'm josh lipton. valero energy taking a dive here. here's the news, the largest u.s. independent refiner telling cnbc that the cost of complying with new pollution standards for gasoline will cost hundreds of millions, specifically $300 and $400 million in equipment and

upgrates. valero in the red this afternoon. thanks so much. pete, want to take a stab at valero? >> we've loved this names for a long times. psx is another one, but these names, as josh just pointed out, huge runs recently. after this big run, you needed something as a pull back. this is definitely a story line. i don't think it's a one-day event. i think you can jump back in, the stock near the 200-day moving average. >> we deliver on trades. four stock that is have lit up my twitter feed. first up, priceline what's the trade leer? >> 60% of their bookings are europe. though it's growing faster than the u.s. in terms of travel, it's only 5% to 6 pushes. the stock is not expensive, but one -- i would hold it and on

weakness i would buy. caterpillar? fridays 2013 lows? >> talk about unloved. this whole sector right now. obviously a lot of people play china off of caterpillar. i think it's not quite time yet. i know that stephanie has some opinions. i will be more bullish, but would like to see the stock closer to 80ivities you were talking cat versus deere, which one you would prefer. >> right now for me it would be deere, and you brought up lindsey as well. i prefer both of those above cat. final trades are up next. we went out and asked people a simple question:

how old is the oldest person you've known? we gave people a sticker and had them show us. we learned a lot of us have known someone who's lived well into their 90s. and that's a great thing. but even though we're living longer, one thing that hasn't changed: the official retirement age. ♪ the question is how do you make sure you have the money you need to enjoy all of these years. ♪ a talking car. but i'll tell you what impresses me. a talking train. this ge locomotive can tell you exactly where it is, what it's carrying, while using less fuel. delivering whatever the world needs, when it needs it. ♪ after all, what's the point of talking

if you don't have something important to say? ♪

welcome back. earlier in the show, we asked you to weigh in on the appear the debate, decide whether the bull or bear won. we've tallied the results. you said mike murphy won the debate. >> wait a minute, did you