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tv   Mad Money  CNBC  July 2, 2013 11:00pm-12:01am EDT

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but ted leonsis, he was someone i had dealings with when i started that guy i thought of ted -- ted was -- if there's a word for him, that word is money! and frankly, i didn't care one bit what groupon was doing with mason at the helm. who cared? so when mason got the boot, i said it was time to stop selling the stock because it had some bucks in is account. more than a billion dollars to be exact. it had ted leonsis running the joint. what the heck? there's no way ted would lend his name for a total joke. he wouldn't do that if he thought it would go under. why not just walk away? groupon has been cleaning up its act and now it's got a restaurant reservation system
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and a high-end business to speak of that actually might make sense. i don't know if we can take on open table, the primary entry in this space, we had them on tv a bunch of times, but he wouldn't attempt to do something he thought he could get beat in. that's not his style. that's what you learn when you've been at it as long as i have. my biggest mistake? i only said stop selling groupon. don't buy. i didn't tell you to buy buy buy as the stock has now doubled since then. today, andrew mason unveiled an album. it's called "hardly working" which to me sounds downright autobiographical. i like that irony. leonsis was running the joint. that switch told you it was time to buy! which leads me to zynga. last time we learned that the former head of microsoft's entertainment division is taking over the troubled gaming company
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from mark pincus, another founder and ceo who couldn't lead. hey, by the way, how clued was he in? i did trounce him a couple of times at words with friends, although in a degree of candor, my daughter was actually running the game. she's a facile and anonymous, she was at the controls there. anyway, that's how i won. when we dissected zynga on "squawk on the street" this morning, my colleague david faber asked if it was too early to buy zynga. see, that's been a long-running joke with me. too early to buy zynga. well i said no, it was time. i thought he'd fall out of his chair, but the new ceo is at the top of the game. microsoft's entertainment division is a huge success and the only reason you don't know that is that because the rest of microsoft is so darned big that even a stellar business with 40 million subscribers to xbox, that's more than netflix has, gets lost in the shuffle of windows. again, zynga has had all sorts of problems.
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it's anything but broke. nice cash hoard. more important, even though it's up 6.51% today off the news, matt rick who developed need for speed and the sims before he grew xbox base to almost 7,500 consoles, it's insanely positive. don mattrick joining zynga as the ceo is a spectacular coup for the company, its shareholders and mark pincus. this is great for the future prospects of zynga. do you know who said that? none other than jeffrey katzenberg, a member of zynga's board who happens to be the ceo of dreamworks animation. that's amazing, katzenberg, he's money. he's one tough guy too. how about this one? as a founder i know from experience that the right successors to accelerate the growth of the company and the strong record demonstrates he
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can balance big-picture vision with world class execution. that's a quote from reed hoffman, another one of my heroes. what's the cofounder of linked in who is on zynga's board of directors. hey, if zynga were really the ship of fools or the "titanic" of gaming, believe me they wouldn't be making these effusive comments. they could be cutting and running, and do you know why? they have too much to lose. zynga has the capital figured out, plus no one saw this, but a couple of weeks ago, they bought spooky cool apps founded by joe canacow. i think online casino style gambling has a huge future. i know others -- i don't bet. i know others will love to get in any game that has a real casino feel, preferably of course without the smoking. zynga, i don't think it's too late to buy and the way the insiders talked about it they'd be fools not to buy more stock. so i'm saying zynga is okay to buy.
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how about nokia? i don't know. i doubt initially even as microsoft ceo steve ballmer faithfully carries around the nokia phone with microsoft's operating system. talk about a solo endeavor. this week, nokia bought out siemens stake for $2.2 billion. so much for that obstacle. i imagine how cool nokia could be when paired with microsoft's skype. the downside is limited. i count myself as no longer a seller. i like the speculative situation. too much smoke has to be some fire. last but not least, what about blackberry? i don't like the idea there could be so many variant views about how they were doing ahead of the quarter announced last week. that means management didn't have control of the situation, or it wouldn't have let expectations get this far out of the hand.
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thorsten heinz, i have to tell you, he's a nice guy. he's a nice guy. but i don't know if that's what i'm really looking at to run blackberry these days. maybe we need someone to come in and break it up into easy to swallow parts and say, you know what, ten bucks, i'll take 15. like an auction. 15, sold to you. here's the bottom line. after the missed opportunity with groupon, zynga is a buy under the new management, nokia is a good call option and as for blackberry, call me when it finds a don mattrick or ted leonsis or maybe even a meg whitman. she turned around hewlett-packard. you'll find me recommending that one too. how about brad in california? >> caller: dodger blue greetings from beautiful socal. >> a puig of his own. >> caller: that's a good one. yep. we're lucky. okay. i wanted to ask you about standard pacific. i know with the recent run-up,
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with the downturn a couple, ten trading days or so ago, it's come back to earth. >> i think this is -- i used to say when i was at my trading desk it's a time, not a place. there will be a moment out in time when this stock is going to be a buy. that's going to be the next quarter. you have to wait for the next quarter before you can pull the trigger on this stock. because people don't believe anymore in the housing recovery. i do. but you'll mark time to go down until that next quarter. i need to go to ross in maryland. ross? >> caller: hi, jim. i'm the first-time caller. i regularly watch your show and i listen to your advice. i apply it to my objectives.g÷gé and that approach has really worked for me. thank you very much. back in november of 2009, you commented on and recommended bte. it more than doubled by december of 2011. it was up in the 50s. and now it's back in the --
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around the mid 30s. what do you think? >> i decided to pull all my recommendation about the canadian trusts about a year ago. i just feel they're too hard and too many accounting issues and i don't want to get our viewers involved in the situation where when they buy, they have to go to their accountant. so i am not a follower of baytex even because i think i'm offering individual advice on canadian equities and i can't do that because they all have tax issues. let's go to gerard in south carolina. gerard? >> caller: hi, jim. big fan. can't wait for your next book. >> thank you very much. >> caller: i'm calling about pandora. yesterday morgan stanley upgraded it to overweight based on the radio transition to online. some analysts are making the case that pandora could be the next netflix given the extent of its content consumption. i wanted to know what you think about this. >> i think the stock's had a big run. i think the stock got hit in a
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lot of short selling when apple said they were coming after them and now it's had a big run in the 19. i think you have to wait for a pullback because someone is going to downgrade the stock and you'll get a better chance to enter it. i hear you. the netflix comparison doesn't seem that wrong given the fact that subscriber growth is unbelievable to pandora. sometimes you have to check the pulse of the flat line stock. it's inspired me to look at zynga which i now like. that's big change for me. i don't really care for blackberry and nokia, i'm calling it an honest to goodness call option that's worth buying. "mad money" will be right back. >> coming up -- cereal killer? from froot loops to frosted flakes, kellogg's brands have helped to beat the market this year. tonight, cramer's poring over the details to find out if it could continue to go -- >> snap, crackle, pop. >> or if it will spoil when he heads off the charts. and later, stock car.
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the market may move fast, but tonight, we've got something a little quicker. what do all those logos on the cars say about the speed of the recovery? cramer's one-on-one with the man behind the wheel of nascar. plus, time to clock in? half a million businesses across the country rely on paychex to get wages to their workers. but can this payroll player help your portfolio bring home the bacon? cramer gets the real read on jobs in america and takes the pulse of the economy when he talks to its ceo, all coming up on "mad money." don't miss a second of "mad money." follow @jimcramer on twitter. have a question? tweet cramer, #madtweets. send jim an e-mail to or give us a call at 1-800-743-cnbc.
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after the massive drubbing over the course of may in the first two weeks of june, a rebound started last week and
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may have ended with today's hideous reversal. the wall street fashion show has clearly entered a new season. there's a reason i like to use the fashion analogy. the defensive bond market equivalent stocks were very much in style. interest rates began to rise in may and then the group went out of style. meanwhile, the industrials and the banks in the old-school tech stocks are in vogue. but what about the supposedly secure, consistent defensive stocks? where for example do the food companies now fit in on the runway at the moment? tonight we're going off the charts to answer that question with the help of tim collins, a brilliant technician and my colleague at, the paid sister site to the street. some of the packaged food names can still rally. and despite the fact that this group has already come up enormously since the beginning of the year. and the main driver of that rally -- people reaching for yield.
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it pretty much evaporated into thin air when rates skyrocketed. that's right. collins believes some of the higher quality food names can roar here, starting with kellogg, the company behind kellogg's, apple jacks, cocoa krispies, special k, eggo waffles, keebler cookies and my favorite, cheese-its and famous amos, many other brands. look at the daily chart. even though the stock has had a tremendous run this year as you can see. i mean, look at this. nice, huh? that's up 17% since the beginning of 2013. collins thinks the rally might not be over. he's the only guy i know who feels that way. he feels like the next leg of the stock moves could begin right here, right now. i mean, like now. maybe even already. the reason, there's a key crossover happening in the moving averages. specifically, kellogg's 13-day, okay, that's in green. moving average, very short term measure of the stock's
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trajectory, has just crossed over the moving average. that's right there. okay? that's a measure of the medium term measure. medium term measure. the 34-day. when the shorter 13 day moving average goes above the longer term 34 day one, then take this like collins, that's about as close as it gets to the chart flashing buy buy buy in big neon letters. then it becomes a sell. on this chart the 13-day is in green and 34 day is in red. while it's a small dot, i'm referring to just a very little thing that's now obscured by the arrowhead. you might be able to see that the green has indeed crossed over the red. buy buy buy. now, this moving average crossover happened yesterday and the 13-day moving average remained above the 34-day which is a big deal obviously. collins wants to wait one more day to make sure the crossover holds before he gets super bullish. hey, who can blame him? in late may, these moving averages gave you a false buy. that was a false buy right there. yeah, it was a false bullish crossover.
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it only lasted for two days before it was followed by a bearish one. he wants to wait three days. maybe three will get us there. with a chart like kellogg's, he urges you not to overthink things. kellogg has been caught in the descending triangle pattern with support, and it's the resistance at 65. kellogg broke out above the $65 resistance level and that's a big deal. he sees only one more ceiling left for the stock and into clear sky, wow. he thinks it will go much higher. that's the high of $66.38. that's less than a point above where kellogg's is trading right now. in short, this is the chart of a stock that's breaking out. and after today's move, collins thinks it's safe to put on half your position if you're looking to buy. so now he's won you over hopefully. if you want to buy a hundred kellogg, buy 50 tomorrow. this pictograph might give you a
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pause considering its run from last august through this past april. talk about straight line. however, collins points out it's occurred here. given that it was trading sideways and you see the flag, you know? i mean it's july 4. kind of an analogy. the stock has been consolidating its gains and collins thinks that can be a positive. look at the stochastics at the top of the chart. this is an important momentum indicator that's what you need to know. during the whole period of consolidation, the stochastics had pulled back and it's begun to rise again. see this slight inflection? you know that is? a sign that kellogg is gaining momentum. based on the daily chart, collins, remember he said $70.50 over the next four to six weeks, 8% gain. not bad for a slow grower. and based on the weekly chart he thinks it will go to $77 by year end. now a gain of 18% on top of the
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17%. that's stupendous. considering the low risk that kellogg engenders given the production line. all the brands i mentioned to you, they don't fluctuate with the economy. hasn't kellogg's come up too far too fast? is is reckless to believe it can keep rallying now that it's no longer in style at the wall street fashion show? well, collins has answers to those objections too. now look at kellogg's performance relative to the s&p 500. hey, you know what, kellogg's has actually underperformed the s&p 500. so much for the ballyhoo that it's straight up. we're starting to see an aggressive accumulation of stock. this is the accumulation line. then it's gone on here, the sellers, buyers, now it's just buyers. there's one last important thing happening. it looks to collins like kellogg's is about to break out of a multiyear down trend, relative to the s&p 500. the overall market thinks they can dramatically outperform this key benchmark. it's not just kellogg.
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collins is looking at another iconic food name that everyone is pretty much jumping out about. he's looking at jm smucker, the maker of all sorts of jellies and jams along with jif peanut butter and folger's coffee. this is a company that's been a rocket ship. check out smucker's daily chart. you can see the stock is heading up for the exact same move. honestly, if i held this like this, you might have thought it was kellogg's. at the moment, smucker's 13-day and 34 day moving average are almost the same, 13 day edging higher and when that occurs, you get this green dot right there which could be tomorrow, that's going to bring it up momentum to bring it up past the stock ceiling resistance. if than has then collins believes that smucker will make a bee line for 110. i want that gain. plus, the weekly charts is similar to kellogg's.
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this is really interesting. it's the exact same pattern. a monster rally from last august, okay, then this past april followed by three months consolidation. there's that flag pattern again. the stock could be ready to resume its run. he thinks the next stop could be 118, 13% of where it is. these are food stocks for heaven's sakes. here's the bottom line. the food stocks may be no longer red hot when it comes to the wall street fashion show, but based on the interpretations of the charts both kellogg and smucker, two that no one expects much of right here, they could be ready to roar. this is an extremely controversial view, people. because the market will be downright shocked if you got a big upside move from kellogg's and smucker. me, i wouldn't be too surprised if collins is right, given how predictable his prognostications have been. when he came to me and suggested this i laughed.
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then i dug into the charts. i think he's going to be right. jeff in illinois, please. >> caller: boo-yah, cramer. just looking for your opinion on campbell's? >> they have very similar charts to the others but not the consistent growth, so therefore, i'm going to say no to campbell's versus the other players in your supermarket. vincent in virginia. >> caller: boo-yah, jim. i know you jersey boys like your dunkin' donuts, and what do you think about tim horton's? anything to know investing in a company based out of canada? >> there's nothing proprietary. the thing we need to know is we are in a doughnut bull market, which includes horton's and dunkin' donuts. do you know what's held up the best during the sell-off? krispy kreme. it goes to 25. barbara in my old home state of pennsylvania. >> caller: yes, a big fan. i want to know about texas
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roadhouse. >> it's putting up some good numbers. it's a buy. i think noodles has gotten out of control. i like the situation there at texas roadhouse. i also like bloomin'. those are two very hot stocks. wall street has moved into a new season, but tim collins thinks the packaged foods can rally. focus on smuckers and kellogg. he says they're going up very big, very fast. after the break, i'll try to make you more money. coming up -- stock car. the market may move fast, but tonight, we've got something a little quicker. what do all those logos on the cars say about the speed of the recovery? cramer's one-on-one with the man behind the wheel of nascar, next.
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out to a nice early lead. ♪ >> less than a lap to go. david reutimann off course. >> here he comes. look at the inside of turn seven. ♪
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>> time to talk nascar. no, this is not a deviation from our mission of helping you try to make money in publicly traded companies here on "mad money." sometimes as is the case with nascar you have a privately held firm that's so well connected, so culturally relevant that it's more than worth our attention. nascar is the second biggest sport in america, behind only the nfl in terms of popularity and television ratings. you may not realize this, but nascar actually outperformed the nba playoffs in terms of ratings this year. naturally, stock car racing is right at the forefront of innovation in the auto industry and more important, nascar is the king of branding. you go to one of their races and it's a sea of logos. as of now, there are 117 fortune 500 companies invested in this sport. so let's talk to brian france, the chairman and ceo of nascar. mr. france, welcome to "mad money." >> thank you. >> i don't know if many people would have the pulse of this many americans as you do. you get to see the spending on merchandise, you get to see the spending of companies.
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is this a sign, your numbers, that america is doing better, not just nascar? >> i think so. i think it's still cautious out there. companies as you see the 3m and many other companies that we do business with, one in four fortune 500 companies, they're more cautious now though. but they're starting to understand that the economy is what it is. and they're making bets and we're very happy that they're making bets with us. >> given the fact that your ratings are way up, would someone who came in 3m on the hood, would they have been able to benefit from the fact they got in before ratings were up and it happens to be that, wow, it was a bonanza? does this cost as much as it used to? >> it does. but we're delivering more robust rights with each deal. and ratings are going to go up and down based on match-ups and interest, story lines and so on. and they look at things over a long period of time. 3m has been with us over a decade, so they know that ratings are going to be ratings, but the value's always there, because they get the brand right
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into the playing field. that's the most unique thing in sports. >> one of the advertisers you just picked up is sherwin williams. there is a housing resurgence in the country. did they come to you? >> i think a little bit of that and they're seeing tha t our fans are their customers and that it makes sense. they like the national footprint that nascar is able to give them. >> one of the things that's changed i think for nascar is that your demographic has changed. it looks more like america in 2013 than -- certainly more than it used to be. what does that do for the advertisers? >> well, it's good. we're zeroed in on the hispanic demographic, we're up 20% in that market alone. doing great things with mexico. carlos slim has been a really big help to us, to attack that market. and it makes sense because these are family people. they love auto racing and we ought to be attracting more and more hispanics, and african-americans and we are.
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>> okay. here's a tough one. a lot of the athletes, big-name athletes, nfl, we read about them doing some terrible things. now, i know that there's the vast majority are good. baseball, some guys doing terrible things. your reputation is one that guys are willing to put m&m's on their jackets. goodyear, toyota. people are willing to affiliate with your guys because they don't seem to get in a lot of trouble. >> you're right. they're not just a sponsor in the stadium somewhere. you know, they're on the cars. they're on the uniforms of the drivers. so that comes with a different set of standards, and fortunately most of the time our drivers try to meet. >> now, women. one of the things that -- a lot of friends at espn. one of the things they were saying is you would not believe the amount of participation in women watching. you have had a big jump. >> well, danica patrick has been a big help. >> it's exciting. hey, listen, the pole thing is
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pretty cool. >> and we're the most gender neutral sport. about 40% of the fan base is females. a lot of families come to the events. they make a vacation around it. it's not uncommon to see kids, you know, mom and dad, everybody coming to a nascar race. >> now, that again would be in keeping with what we have been saying is that there are certain vacations that have really come to the fore. theme park. so i have been recommending cedar fair and six flags. nascar fits into the depiction of the not that expensive vacation that a family can go to. >> that's part of it. we're not a theme park. we have events all over the country, we don't have hometown teams per se. >> right. >> so people do make vacations out of it. our biggest state is an example for the daytona 500, pennsylvania, biggest ticket base customer. wouldn't think that, but it is. >> i didn't know that. one of the things we learned,
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they have a lot of different things that came about that in technology that we ultimately are able to use in the regular way. what are we learning from nascar that we're going to be using in our regular life? in our regular cars, in our homes? what is the technological innovation that you're showing? >> a number of things. we have some of the best innovation companies, 3m is one of them. cafe standards are using so much technology now and into the future. >> do you make the cars safer with things you've learned? >> i think we do. there's crush zones. we have safer barriers that we have developed. we have got a track-drying system that cuts the drying time of an event down by 80%. >> that's amazing. >> that will be good on roads or bridges or a tennis tournament or two. >> next contract you can ask for more money? >> we're going to try. that what's we do. those discussions are going on now. >> terrific. that's brian france, chairman and ceo of nascar, which is doing fabulously and is certainly attracting some of my
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favorite companies to advertise. thank you so much, sir. good to talk to you. stay with "mad money."
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"lightning round" is sponsored by t.d. ameritrade. >> it is time, it is time for the "lightning round." buy buy buy, sell sell sell. play this sound. and then "lightning round" is over. are you ready skeedaddy? "lightning round," why don't we start with charlie in illinois. charlie? >> caller: hey, jim. hey, listen, i know you get a lot of kudos and thank you all for what you do for us. i want to say your phone staff is some of the nicest and most polite people i have come across. so a big boo-yah to them.
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>> absolutely. they do a great job. every single day. that's not an easy job. thank you. i'll pass it on. how can i help? >> caller: allscripts health care solutions, mdrx ticker symbol. >> been doing well since the new management. but the new management has brought out the best of all scripts. i think it's okay. charlie in florida? >> caller: yes. wft. >> i have never been a big fan of weatherford, because they had some accounting irregularities. linn. i did like the company but they're being examined in an informal inquiry by the s.e.c. on the accounting methods and accounting irregularities equals sell. i think the stock is very cheap. had to sell some for the charitable trust. let's hope it's cleared up. but that's the truth. accounting irregularities, sell.
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let's go to yasha in new york. >> caller: yes, doctor, i'd like your diagnosis and prognosis for x-1. >> 3-d printing is a very, very competitive business right now, so i'm not going to recommend it. i see the stock is a rocket ship. i don't want any rocket ships right now. i have too many other problems. jim in virginia, please? >> caller: yes, this is jim o'donnell. how are you, mr. cramer? >> i'm fine. how about you? >> caller: pretty good. my concern is with bank of america stock. >> bank of america. if you like it, you will love wells fargo which is what i have for my charitable trust. wells fargo goes much higher. emily in rhode island? >> caller: boo-yah from providence, rhode island. i had a question about linked in. >> a lot of people feel like that that last quarter was not that good. i think they're doing some
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spending in order to be able to dominate the category. buy buy buy. i think it's an opportunity to buy. i think it's well-run company. let's go to david in maryland. david? >> caller: hello? >> you're up. >> caller: all right. >> go ahead. how about a stock, dave? >> caller: hello. >> go ahead, dave. >> caller: i'm calling about amd. >> i saw it was down for the first time today. you know what? buy buy buy buy? this stock is inexpensive. got a bunch of gaming consoles in the next quarter. i think that amd can go to five, and therefore own it. jim in illinois? >> caller: jim, enjoy the show very much. >> thank you. >> caller: sir, i was wondering about navistar. >> navistar is one of those situations, sure, maybe they get it together, but then cummings goes to 120. the reason you buy cummins is because of problems at navistar and that, ladies and gentlemen, is the conclusion of the "lightning round." >> the "lightning round" is sponsored by t.d. ameritrade.
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coming up -- time to clock in? half a million businesses across the country rely on paychex to get wages to the workers. but can this payroll player help your portfolio bring home the bacon? cramer gets the real read on jobs in america and takes the pulse of the economy when he talks to its ceo. [ indistinct shouting ] [ male announcer ] time and sales data. split-second stats. [ indistinct shouting ] ♪ it's so close to the options floor... [ indistinct shouting, bell dinging ]'ll bust your brain box. ♪ all on thinkorswim from td ameritrade. ♪ a friend under water is something completely different. i met a turtle friend today. avo: whatever you're looking for, expedia has more ways to help you find yours.
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the most important piece of data coming out this week by far is the labor department's june nonfarm payroll numbers on friday. if you want to get the jump on the monthly employment report it's always worth talking to paychex, the payroll processing company with the focus on small business. now paychex just reported last wednesday. numbers, people thought they were a bit lighter, well, let's just say the company earned 34 cents. like a three cent miss on revenues that were a tad light. up 6% year over year. the most important metric is payroll which increased by 1%, a
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sign that paychex clients didn't add that many new workers. on the other hand, there's an interest rate component too. paychex gets paid, then it sends out a bunch of checks to the employees of the clients, and then they get to collect the interest on the money. when the interest rates begin to rise, something that could take a while, the earnings will get a boost and they're paying you with a 3.5% yield while you're waiting. so let's check in with marty mucci to learn more about how his company is doing as well as the employment situation here in america. welcome back to "mad money." >> jim, thanks for having me. good to be here. >> i have to tell you, on the one hand, i listen to the fed and the fed is saying, look, things are getting better. we have to be really worried about low interest rates. then i look at what's going on in the country which is what you had, the empirical data that you have and it's just not happening. >> i think it's the 13th
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consecutive quarter that checks for payroll are up. it seemed to drop off a little bit in the fourth quarter for us. that fiscal quarter. and, you know, one quarter doesn't make a trend so let's see what happens in the first quarter. we're still hopeful that it will bounce back a little bit. >> well, i think you're modest. you said you didn't bounce back for us. it didn't bounce back for anybody. i mean, you're taking your fair share. it seems like the business creation environment, it's just as if no one wants to start a new business. >> well, i think, you know, you have made many points over the last few days. i do think regulations hurt. i think there's healthcare reform that's starting to scare new business start-up. there's other regulations and taxes and changes going on that do scare you. temp hiring is up. you can see that. so i think people are cautiously moving forward. i'm pleased with housing, you have talked about it, prices are up, inventory's down. as new houses build a lot of jobs come around that housing for us. >> it does seem, marty, there's
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so much on the cusp here. you talk about what your company can do if you're going to start a business, you want paychex's advice on the health care. you want paychex advice on the defense of marriage strike down by the supreme court. maybe these are things that say, you know what, i don't want to start a business. who knows what kind of rights you have to give people? who knows what kind of benefits you have to give people and maybe it's better to wait and see. could that be what's happening? >> well, i think you're exactly right. i think there's just so many things going on that new entrepreneurs or businesses, you know, we also see businesses not starting that second business, opening up the second pizza parlor or the second office. you know, i think they're just being cautious at this point, particularly with health care reform. now, we feel good. i think it's real opportunity as you have said for companies like paychex because we have products that we're rolling out in september, october time frame when this really heats up to help them to decide what to do, when to do it and try to make it easier for them to help their
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employees. >> in a piece put out by credit suisse, one of the negatives they said was rate pressure in the insurance business arising from the affordable care act will impact resolve over first half 2014. they're calling the affordable care act more of a near term head wind for paychex. that didn't seem right to me, but maybe it's right to you. >> no. i think what's confusing there is the rates from carriers -- the commission that we earn will drop a little bit. however, the opportunity is much larger on the other side of that for clients who will want insurance. our insurance agency, the paychex insurance agency hit $100 million in annual revenue and well over 100,000 clients. we are feeling really good about the opportunity. yes, carrier commissions will come down a little bit, but that's going to be well off set by the opportunity in front of us. >> that's important because there was some confusion in the research. i think a lot of people felt because the two -- the five-year had a little bit of inflection and the ten year went up big in yield. somehow that would affect you,
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but you guys are way too conservative. you're not taking the float and putting it in the ten-year, right? >> well, the portfolio is split. on average $4 billion out there. it's split between short term and long term. so the short term when they start going up every 25 basis points is worth $5 million to us in revenue. that's really good. the long term, it takes longer because as they mature obviously then we start to see the impact of that. so that'll take a little bit longer for us to see. but to me, at this point it's all upside. >> yeah, i think that the analysts -- everyone got ahead of themselves. bernanke said it would get better, they all felt you'd instantly be able to make more money on the new rates. i follow every word you say closely. these guys got ahead of what you were saying. >> i think you're absolutely right. you know, the short term rates haven't gone up so that's where you're going to see it fast. and that's not happening yet. i think it's going to happen, but it hasn't happened yet. the long-term just takes time. it takes time to turn around.
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but we're feeling good about it. but i think they got a little ahead of themselves. >> i think everyone has been reset and now is the time to buy some paychex. marty mucci, president and ceo of paychex, thank you for coming on the show. >> thanks for having me. >> i love it when they reset the expectations. all the analysts got ahead of what marty was saying. now you get the stock cheaper. time to buy paychex. "mad money" is back after the break. stay connected to cramer on ♪
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are you as tired of the parlor game about what's driving this market as i am? when i wake up these days i look at china to get my usual dose of disappointment. then i see japan and examine how horrible europe is and how the latest fed guessing games are going on and then i look at how stocks are doing. that's exactly what i'm told to do by everyone i listen to. and precisely that order, frankly. some people have told me that all i have to do is to monitor japan. and others say that china is in charge, and if they implode, we're through. people's republic does seem to be a ticking time bomb, especially if china needs to repatriate u.s. bonds. and then italy will get europe going again, which therefore means we'll see a turn here. but i keep thinking about the
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new rules in offense. that's right. if you started the process by looking at the point of view from who has the best new restaurant chain or the best growth in biotech, in other words, you would be more u.s. stock centric. fortunately, i was able to see a valuable piece of property and you caught a 55% gain as it was up another four bucks today. i only recognized that because celgene is down the block from me. and also because my mom died of kidney cancer, personal insight that drew me to onyx's franchise, which is a breakthrough drug for kidney cancer. which has been a death sentence for many before this. and noodles and company, when it started trading, it hasn't looked back. it's infuriating to me. i'm blaming the fact i missed this in the parlor game of international finance. there was too much going on and i was too worried about the ten year. i knew that noodles might be the hottest concept out there. you can't even get into the joint. "new york times" say the hottest trend around is noodles.
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i know the chipotle chop house noodle business seems stillborn but the concept is a winning one. the ipo itself, hey, lost in the thick of the hand wringing over whether the fed was tightening or not. although my colleague herb greenberg does point out that noodles may not have the same store sales growth that the bulls are looking for. the money has been made, including today's $8.73 run-up. this is a bad sign for a stock picker like me. you have to take advantage of the free money. lately it's been in the ipo market. the noodles deal, i always talk about this, when you have had it with stocks and ipos are being cancelled. you have to know what the chain is like, and no one i talked to had even -- about -- well, everyone was focused on the fed and the fed obsession. no one was talking noodles. yeah, this was a real wake-up call to me. a real wake-up call to get the international focus, no matter what, because that's where the money is. it does keep you from thinking
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about what really moves individual stocks these days. you don't find a noodles by looking at the yen. you don't find onyx by guessing u.s. gdp. if only life were that easy. stick with cramer.
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president obama is changing the rules, boy is this complicated. always a bull market somewhere. i'm jim cramer. see you tomorrow! >> a war is raging in mexico's border towns as rival drug cartels battle for control. in a scene of horror. the mexican government has declared its own war on the drug barons. it seems powerless to stem the tide of bloodshed. [ sirens wailing ] >> [ shouting in spanish ] >> the drug gangs here are as heavily armed as the security forces. not in a million years would i expect to find something like this here in mexico. people come here on holiday. thousands have died or simply


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