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tv   Fast Money Halftime Report  CNBC  July 5, 2013 12:00pm-1:01pm EDT

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>> this is on higher volume interestingly. we've seen a pickup as well keeping an eye on the ten-year which has been such a key gauge for how stocks have done over the last month or two. >> have a great weekend. let's get back to headquarters. scott wapner and requesting t"t" guys thanks very much. welcome to "the halftime show." glets to the wall and see where we stand. the dow is up 66. that's where it sits. there's the s&p, nasdaq positive as well. ripe for a buy. with apple booking its best week in two months, is the stock finally, finally safe to own? bet the farm. is zynga's 25% surge this week game on for your portfolio. first, our top story is rally watch. stocks initially shooting higher today on the back of that better than expected jobs report.
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rates are up, too, though and that begs the question, how can stocks continue to climb if yields do as well? we're trading the action with stephen weiss, mike murphy, pete and jon najarian. is the market proving it cannot continue to go up if rates do as well? >> the market is going through what it went through last week or earlier this week, which is basically off better economy. you have got rates moving up in a measured way, i believe. you could call it a spike but i don't think it is because you're still very, very much an easy rate territory. accommodation will continue and draghi head said we're going to keep going until we don't go. so the bottom line is this is an economic cycle where an economy proves you have got huge leverage to corporate revenue models. i think it can keep going and will keep going. >> why did the market react the way is it did off this better than expected jobs report? was it too good combined with the revisions of the prior two months.
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>> might be a little too good and then suddenly everybody starts to say, hold on now, maybe the fed is going to step away. maybe we're not going to see the same fed we've seen for months and months and that could be a problem for markets. when you see the rates get spiked up, that causes folks to pause. remember this, when we are looking presently and looking at the markets, we're talking about very, very low volumes right now that are trading. when you look at monday, tuesday, wednesday in the option markets, almost nothing out there. we've been running $17 million per day. so this is a time including today where despite the fact we did come out with job numbers, look at some of the volumes. i would like to say it's something where you got to be careful not to overread what you're seeing. >> mike, we had our taper tantrum ten days, two weeks ago. why are we going through this again? why can't we accept the fact that good news is simply good news. we added more jobs and the market should be rising along with the dollar and all the other indicators that the economy is strengthening. >> i agree with you completely. i think what you saw this
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morning, judge, was a lot of traders came in from their summer homes, came in for the morning for the specific jobs report. when they saw the good print, a lot of people just dumped bonds. if you look at the s&p early this morning, very interesting. s&p got up to the 1626 level, stopped on a dime, and reversed course. we're right back at that level now. that was a key level before and i think if we break through this to the joupside, we're looking at 1640. >> dr. j with us virtually today. what's the read? >> judge, i was one of the people who was, of course, bullish coming into the number and i think this number is actually very good. i think, judge, what we're likely to see because of the delay of the affordable care act, i think we're going to see numbers for july, august, and september, i won't be surprised to see a september number around 300,000, judge. so would i rather have the fed
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continuing to pump $85 billion into the markets by virtue of the purchases they're making or would i rather have a stronger economy and jobs market? i'd rather have the latter. that's what looked like it's going to happen to me so i'm turning my view around as far as we've got paul richardss on in a little bit. i'm with paul. i think the fed is going to have the ammo to start tapering this year rather than into 2014 and i think that's going to be bullish, quite frankly. >> who is buying stocks on the desk today? you got the s&p sitting basically at its 50-day moving average, a level it hasn't been able to close above. >> we're buying. >> bought some banks, regional banks. >> we're buying regional banks. >> i'm adding to citi today. added a trading position last week, added more. here is what has to be focused on is we're now through the preannouncement season of earnings or largely through it, and it's been relatively sparse.
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so once again companies have gone out there, they've cut guidance enough that we'll see a beat to the earnings period. the only caution, judge, is china. china had a pmi report that came out. there are 12 indicators in it, they left 5 out. that's both good news and bad news is that they're saying we're going to make these numbers up even more so don't worry about it. >> throw up some of the banks while we're having that conversation. you can throw up the xlf if you want. look at the s&p, too. the spike we just had in the stock market, you all right hre financials leading the way. you had regional banks at multiyearbac highs. both of our next two guests were looking for good things from today's report, steve liesman, paul richards here as well, both live on the set. we're going to try to figure out xa exactly is taking place.
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>> the spike was at 11:55 and i see no news at the moment that explains it. >> at first we were sitting here discussing the fact of whether the market is reinforcing it's just not ready for higher rates. >> i think the market is ready. when i look at this market, if we were to be flat on the day with the following things occurring, a better than expected jobs report at 195,000, 70,000 revisions to the prior two months, more certainty in the market than i have seen in a long time but the fed will taper in september and some coalescing around what that number might be and stocks would stay at these levels, i would say that's a victory. 28d suggeit would suggest to me market is ready for this. i would take the wage gains and the jobs over the qe any day. as an investor, as an economist, as an american. >> paul richards was looking for
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a goldilocks scenario today. did we get it? or were we too good? >> it was a good number. i think this number alone without the europeans yesterday would have been a problem for the market but the europeans yesterday reminded us that central banks are in control. so you now have this diversity between two european central banks are doing and what the fed is doing now. they're going to move in september, but draghi and carnie just bought stability for this market and bought a very, very positive risk scenario going for the next six months. >> is that how we see it? >> absolutely. >> there's a term being talked about which is synchronized forward rate guidance which is bringing draghi on board with this notion that they're projecting forward on rates. that was the new development from thursday. again bernanke leading the way
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in terms of the innovation here with the information that came out by the way last year at jackson hole. we're coming up on another one. there's a huge tool in there which is to guide rates forward. it is interesting to think about that right now and to see they're kind of losing in the u.s. the forward rate guidance story. this 2.70% on the ten-year, that was another hurdle on the markets why if i would think we were flat today would be good, they're losing the forward rate guidance but getting decent equity response. >> you look at the ten-year at 2.70%, we're getting to a point where we'll see foreign buyers coming into the market. we've seen a complete exodus in terms of born bond investors. you get this to 2.85%, that's a great yield. i think the fed would be comfortable with that. i think we'll end up with a new mean in the ten-year of 2.5% but the range could be 2.20% to 3% in that time. this market can handle that. >> let me point this out as to
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why i think the u.s. market is trading not dependent on what draghi said yesterday, you have the european indices giving up a lot of gains. we have the ftse down almost 1%, the dax down, the cac down. i think the response is what's happening in the u.s. in terms of the better jobs numbers and the realization kormss have never been more lean, more productive. that's going to drive an incredible earnings renaissance. >> you have to have a couple of big days with rates near 2.70% to reinforce the thought and the psychology of this market that it can sustain a movement higher as long as rates are elevated? >> i think there's a point at which rates can begin to hurt. but when i -- >> it's hurting certain sectors today. >> when i look at the 0.4% wage gains, i don't think that's going to be sustained. but if we can do 0.2% and 0.3% i
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would be rethinking my call on some of the cyclicals, a little more money in the pocket of consumers ma mawould make some sectors more interesting. >> you had no improvement in it. the question is how many more people are sitting on the sidelines that will come back to the labor force that will pressure that number upwards? >> you see, steve, you need to take a step back. what are we talking about? we're talking about -- >> santelli was available. >> you're right. i'm agreeing with you essentially. we're talking about massive slack in the labor market. we're talking about the thing the federal reserve cares about is wage push inflation. we are so far from that right now that we are talking about an easy fed, maybe a little bit more easy, maybe a little less easy, but still easy for sure for a long time to come. this unemployment rate in my opinion could hold steady or go up if we continue to 200,000 as more people are attracted to the workforce.
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>> a sustained move higher by the dollar means what for the overall market? is this a psychological thing where we have to get used to that is higher dollar is okay? despite the impact it could have on certain sectors. >> i think it plays to my point that we've been saying that the second half at least european stocks on a relative basis may outperform the u.s. and that's fine. just start focusing on the ower side of the atlantic as opposed to this one. it doesn't mean you can't do well here as well. i think europe will do better. >> what happened yesterday? given what they're down now -- it was a huge spike. i think they're still up on the past two days. they have maybe just given back a little bit. >> you've seen a move since yesterday, again today, but where does it go? do we see 120? >> draghi -- i reckon draghi was close to cutting rates yesterday. we'll never know how close.
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>> do you want me to call him? >> in other words it was don't cut rates but give forward guidance. >> that was probably the compromise with the bundesbank. i think the euro is steadily headed down to the low 120s. he wants the export competitiveness. year ago it was 124.50 in july. completely different scenario now. he's a lot more comfortable. i think a steady grind down, 125 and then slightly lower. >> not to be critical of our own fed chairman but don't you think to some extent where draghi is proving to be a master communicators, certainly it seems he's able to communicate in the markets in a way bernanke is struggling at least lately. would you be willing to at least go that -- >> i think the fed stumbled on the last time, but if you think about the sequencing of where the two central banks are at, the fed is in time eight, nine months, a year ahead of the ecb.
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all the stuff that draghi is doing, bernanke did already. it's a lot easier, scott, to read the script and get the emphasis right when somebody has read it for you. >> that's a great point. >> owning thing i would add is that draghi talks because that's all he needs to do today. bernanke has actually acted. who moves in 2008, 2009? what do the europeans do in they took austerity on. >> and look at the results in employment. that's the thing i look at. >> if you could have looked from 18 months ago if you could say bernanke is where he is today, we would have all signed up for that. >> the spike in the s&p. mel lease sa lee is watching everything in the markets and she has a market flash on a specific group that is certainly being impacted by rising rates. >> even talking about this, the ten-year yield hitting its highest level in twho years. we're seeing an impact in the home builder sector. toll brothers, pulpulte, lennar.
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this is a pattern we've seen over and over. look at the tlc versus the hxb over the past three months. you can see the rise in long term rates have really hit the secto sector. it's taking the builders down in this session as well as the past few sessions. >> speaking of patterns, murph, the pattern is that you remain upbeat on the builders. and that doesn't waver at all as rates creep higher? >> it doesn't. creep higher to 2.7% on the ten-year? no. the 30-year mortgage -- >> it's weighing on a lot of people. murph, why not you? >> we haven't added to the position that we're long the home builders. we haven't added on this huge pullback. i want to see how they react monday morning when we have the varsity team in, when the desks are fully staffed. i want to see how they react. you saw earnings out of toll and lennar and pulte.
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they not only talked about what they did last yaur but their book of business going forward. those numbers are good. just the simple fact we have the spike in rates is not a reason to dump the home builders. >> steve, give you a final thought. paul, you as well. the fed speak that has been so present lately, does it continue now? does it get louder as the drum beat towards a september taper starts to build, starts to condition us market participants and the markets themselves that it's coming? >> i think it becomes sort of de rigueur. that it becomes stuff you have heard already. they will be emphasizing what they have been emphasizing, that we may go up or down on qe but that doesn't change the forecast on interest rates and the market can do what it wants and i don't think the fed will lean against that if it has the right impression of what the rate forecast is. >> paul, final thought to you. what will you be watching as we head into next week? >> i think you continue to look at u.s. economic numbers. the numbers will be fine. i think the market can with1257nd the july 31 fed meeting, we should be fine on
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that. we will move in september and the market will see it's all under control and critically globally, scott, central bankers have it under control. if we left it to the politicians, we could be having a problem. >> i need to point out, we're going to get some bad gdp numbers. i have seen numbers as low as 1%, even a half a point for the second quarter. it strikes me the market is looking through that but sometimes when the market sees what it's been forecasting, it freaks out. >> steve, paul, thanks so much as always. we're coming back with the guys as well. an already wild day on the street if not a bit of a lighter one because of the holiday. we're calling out names and revealing the winners and losers in pops and drops. plus apple is up 6%, but does our next guest see that momentum continuing? we're going to ask a top rated analyst where apple is heading next. that's when the half comes back in a couple minutes. customizable charts, powerful screening tools, and guaranteed 1-second trades. and at the center of it all is a surprisingly low price -- just $7.95.
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we're watching this comeback in stocks, and pete is taking a look at some unusual activity as he always does. where are you seeing it today? >> in the solar space. when you look at the sector for the year-to-date, you see an explosion to the upside. everybody has been focused more and more on alternatives. you start looking at some solar names. yge is the symbolsymbol, smalle the sector, smaller than first solar, but this 2345i78 whname, over 3,000 contracts trading. that's heavy for this name. people expecting to see this stock moving to the upside.
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when you look at the last three months, most of that 90% move has occurred in the last three months. >> smaller market cap. >> 560 million. this is not a mill tultibillion dollar company. >> apple is up, is this the beginning of a real turn around? let's bring in brian marshall. it's good to see you. >> thanks. >> you have a buy on the stock. solid growth and attractive valuation. i'll give you that. best in class ecosystem. i'll give you that. years left of healthy growth for iphone. >> well, that's the issue. you know, when you look at it, 85% of the company's gross profits come from the iphone and ipad. they have 10% penetration of the global cell phone market. so going forward, a lot of large numbers, definitely an issue. is apple our best idea like it was a couple years ago? no. but it offers the highest dividend yield, about 300 basis
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points. we think the product introductions over the next couple quarters are going to be enough to reaccelerate the earnings growth. i think the stock will slowly start to factor in some of this. is a phone enough to get the job done or is there just simply too much saturation the likes of which samsung was talking about. their growth is slowing now, too. >> if you look at it, we think the phone is enough. and it depends on what phone. so i think it's important to attack two things. number one, the high end of the marketplace which has slowed basically to a stand still for apple. but we need a new five-inch phone. that's a fact, what people want. we think low cost iphone is hugely important because international ideally apple's penetration is less than half of what it is domestically. it all comes down to the affordability. people just can't afford it. so we need that low cost product to come out at the appropriate margin level. >> there's no doubt --
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>> the second half story. >> and so far it's been right. we've moved up from $396 now to $420. here is the big question -- >> you better hope there's more than 24 bucks -- >> we have hailed a lot of guys -- >> we are not declaring you a winner just yet. >> we have had three good days and hopefully we can get a fourth. you get a low-end phone and obviously as you talked about the larger screen, is it almost a bigger factor they have to get some contracts in china to be able to start selling in a much more competitive environment with samsung and the rest? >> definitely. i think when you look at it, the two areas they need to focus on is obviously there's a big carrier in japan they don't have currently as well as the biggest on the planet, china mobile. so if you think about china mobile, over 700 million subs. it's over twice the population of the u.s. so it's just a huge untapped opportunity. we have about 10 million iphones on that network today but they're not obviously connected through the traditional routes. so once they start to support
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the iphone, i think that's going to be pretty powerful and get this growth recatalyzed. >> we're talkinged about a company that's had twice the margins of -- twomore than twicn some case. we had samsung report earnings and they do have a low end phone. motorola has come out with a low end phone but samsung said it was disappointing and, by the way, it will be more disappointing, you haven't cut your numbers enough. to me it seems the market is saturated before apple gets there. what we've seen so far is china mobile and japan say we don't play ball like at&t and verizon. so it's game over it seems like before it gets started and you need more than an iphone, you need some real killer app product which the rumors just aren't there. >> if you look at it, this right now is the first time in the history that smartphones represent over 50% of all cell phones being sold today. so that penetration opportunity that we had over the last couple
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years is not as fertile as it once was. what apple needs to do going forward is i think a lot of it going to be on refresh cycles. is there knew opportunities to have new subs? of course. apple has hundreds of millions of dollars on ios. do they have the compelling products at the appropriate margin levels? >> but the u.s. companies have gotten very smart. it's no longer a one-year upgrade, it's a two-year upgrade. in europe they are doing the same thing. so you don't have the same type of traffic going buying those phones. >> the fundamentals are not as bright as they once were, no question. but we think apple represents a good investment opportunity. our current price target is $600. >> what do you think as a final question, what do you think the so-called hype premium is for a stock like apple? i ask that i guess in the
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context of if they're going to hang their hats on a cheaper iphone that's going to be more popular perhaps overseas than in the united states, are the days of the long lines and all of the cameras looking at all the long lines outside of the apple stores over and, if so, doesn't that affect the hype which in some sense has driven the stock price as much as the fundamentals? >> i think a lot of that hype and a lot of the luster has come off. the shine has definitely been removed. once the iphone 5 launched in september of last year, the stock was at $700 and then it was straight down. the loss of steve jobs doesn't help. ultimately we don't think there's a lot of hype. i don't think there's a lot built into the stock. so we think this becomes more like a microsoft, more like an intel for that regard. a company that's relatively slow growth, very mature, but has very consistent cash flow. >> $600 price target you better hope it's not a microsoft where it takes ten years to get back
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to $600. >> i think we're going to see growth in the midsingle digits longer term and with a discount to the s&p 500, probably do $40 of earnings next year and that can grow into something where take a 12 multiple, discount to the broad market, add in some credit for their $150 of cash per share on the balance sheet. i think we can get to those levels. >> good to talk to you as always, brian. >> thanks, scott. >> doc, trade apple for me. >> judge, i think the play here is to buy the september options just above where we're trading right now. let's say 4.25, 4.30 level and sell the august options. so that's just a time spread. you're buying time for this stock to creep to the upside until they have that announcement of probably the 5s, perhaps something else in ept september. >> i don't think the 5s is is enough. i think the television is what apple is waiting for. you talked about long lines coming back. if the apple, the long
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anticipated apple tv comes out, that's what i would be looking for. >> trading range, $400 to $450. samsung is selling at six times. they selling nearly double the multiple. there's not that big of difference. >> pops and drops, that's the biggest look at movers in midday trading. dell. >> when you look at dell right now, obviously this letter that was sent out that said, look, this better be a bid that's accepted for dell and silver lake or you have a major problem going forward. that's part of the reason we're seeing the big drop. >> there's a report out there that dell and silver lake were not going to raise their bid. >> there's no doubt. but they warned to the fact if you reject our bid, this stock could be trading significantly lower. >> tesla, dr. j. >> tesla, judge, i love the numbers. they came out. it sounds like they're guiding to us at least 21,000 cars. that super charger network is starting to roll out on the west coast on highway 101. that's all great news. and then people in hong kong
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signing up for the car without even knowing what price it is going to be when it comes out in hong kong in wintertime. >> murph, the miners. no surprise with gold getting blo bludgeoned today. >> newmont getting killed today. i don't think this is the time to try to jump in here. this has to settle in. i think the whole space can continue to go lower. >> doc, do you regret being bullish on the miners or what? >> well, i think we go right back down here, judge, and we're probably going to test about the 22 level for the gdx. that's the etf for the miners. we're about $1 above that right now. i thought it was all clear after last week, but as i say, the combination of that affordable care act being pushed out and these job numbers already getting better faster than i thought, that's a reason to perhaps pull back to those lows that we saw just ten days ago. >> you're telling me the health care bill has something to do with the gold miners. come on. >> heck yeah it does.
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>> come on doc! >> people's views of where job creation is going to be and whether it's real or whether it's just something that's a steroid shot into it by the fed, that's what the difference is and that's why they'd buy or not buy gold. >> all right. apache. weiss. >> i'm working on that. give me a second. apache. it was upgraded by another firm on the street. which is driving it higher. also you have crude moving up, of course, and nat gas doing og. suez canal, there will be no issues here. every country that's dependent on food going through the suez will not let what's happening in egypt disrupt deliveries. >> all right. coming up next after a short break, we're going to take a look at zynga which has been jumping. the traders are going to debate whether that can continue. that and much more when we come back. (announcer) scottrade knows our clients trade
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welcome back to "the half."
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we do our top three trades. mead johnson. it was downgraded but the stock isn't moving. >> it's come down heavy over the course of the last few trading segs. today the downgrade came from morgan stanley. i look for this type of action though, big volume, big sell-off, now the stock is holding its own. it will be interesting to see how it sells next week. >> pete, give me a read on sprint. why is the stock down 1%? >> when you really look at this deal, this is a huge move by softbank, but now the deal is done. people understand, it probably closes the 8th or 9th of july. stock is probably not going anywhere. there's no volume in this name. i think it's stuck on pause. now they will be the big competitor with at&t and verizon but that's where it's going to be around the $7 range. >> we talked about the banks
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doing quite well today. financials the best performing seconder. a c suntrust is up almost 4%, zions, and huntington bank up 3%. >> that yield serve steepening. i was buying as well. what are we up? somewhere between 15 and 20 basis points between the two-year and the ten-year already. that getting steeper is great for these guys. they don't have exposure to many of the bad parts potentially and that's why they're outperforming. >> another up day for oil. crude bubbles to a fresh 14-month high. lets get more from jackie deangelis. >> good afternoon. crude prices up more than 1.5% on the session, and, in fact, we're seeing crude trade above $100 a barrel for just the third time in a year. jeff kill beburg out to you, whs impacting crude more today, the
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geopolitical tensions or the prospect of an improving u.s. economy? >> we're certainly pleased to see a strengthening in the jobs number but the whole reason we're seeing the move today with crude oil popping above $103 is solely geopolitical tension. let's rewind just to monday. we were trading at $96. ever since they arrested morsi and took him out of the presidency and are holding him, we are seeing a lot of protesters come out. the muslim brotherhood is actually calling today a friday of -- sexcuse me -- rejection. i think it's going to be more bloodshed. is there more room to run? i think so. >> geopolitical fears really important right now. meantim meantime, jim, over to you. how long is it going to take for the escalation in crude prices to trackcle down to the pump? >> if crude can stay here for a week or so, i think that will happen rather quickly. there's been a huge divergence
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between the two and that could correct itself. i don't agree with jeff it stays here and goes higher. i think if you look at the move in crude that began on june 21st, the same day the move began in the stocks as well. part of the move that's happened in crude, the 11% -- >> but, jimmy, sentiment -- i disagree. sentiment is the chump card here. >> i get you disagree. the one thing i will give you is stocks turned around and crude didn't. today there's a little more geopolitical risk built in. if that starts to subside at the same time risk off comes, i think crude heads down. >> let's agree to disagree, gentlemen, for the moment. thank you so much to jim and jeff as well. scott, for now back over to you. >> thanks. weiss, don't you think that crude is ripe for a sell-off here? >> i do. the geopolitical risk is what's driven it higher. >> don't you think it's overblown as well? >> i do. >> it's not like you can walk up to the suez canal and cause a disruption of some kind.
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>> the u.s. is not going to let any disruption happen. you have the middle eastern countries, they're not going to let their life blood be cut off and you're talking about, you know, civil unrest. you're not talking about an organized army going out and disrupting it. >> what about the energy trade? on a day you have crude, you have the geopolitical concerns, crude is middle of the pack. not like it's having an outperforming day. >> i think you can appreciate the integrated names. you still get yield. everybody talks about yield. and those pipelines, continue to look at the pipeline makers. >> i'll take perform nens a bull market over yield. >> you will get performance and yield. >> i don't think so. >> good luck. do you want to finish that thought? >> it's been a phenomenal trade. and you normally get it. >> i can find performance elsewhere. look at the airlines. >> i love those, too. >> crude is not going to hold.
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when it settles down -- >> they're also telling what you a great by that refinery was for delta -- >> absolutely. >> don't let a commercial break get into the way of a good debate, okay? next, on the half, speaking of commercials, zynga has jumped 23% this week on track for its largest gain since february. will the change at the top keep the stock flying high? two of our traders are ready to go toe to toe and battle it out. plus a slew of earnings on deck for next week. our traders take their positions ahead so you know how to take yours. that's when we come back.
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will the change at the top keep
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welcome back. earlier this week zynga annou e announced it would bring in a new ceo. shares have rallied big. should you ride or sell it? weiss is the bull, murphy is the
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bear. mr. weiss, make your case. in the spirit of america who loves a comeback story -- forget about the long term, i'm talking about the short term. they brought a guy in who is experienced in gaming. and i'm not talking about his microsoft history recently. >> electronic arts. >> also he sold his first game before he turned 20. so he can develop the games, he's got the connections in silicon valley throughout tech. to me it's a honeymoon, the quarter doesn't matter, the following quarter doesn't matter. it's not going to be quite a yahoo! story but it has a lot of the same elements. i think that they can bounce back somewhat. in terms of the stock. the company longer term, not as positive. >> the stock did bounce back. they've already rallied 40% off the lows from eight days ago. so the move is already in there. this is a company with a market cap of $2.7 billion. that's paying their ceo $50 million this year. remember ron johnson? >> who?
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>> ron johnson. jcpenney. this setup, zynga runs into major resistance around the 550 level. a gentleman went over to run nokia and the stock is down 60% since he went over there. >> this is a -- first of all, first of all, let me move over so we have room for you -- >> i thought you were getting up. do you want to -- >> move it over here now. first of all, this isn't nokia. this is not that complicated a company. this is very, very simple. this is games, that's it. and it's a great ceo right here who has the big company experience that can term them -- >> stock rallied 40% already. you're looking for the stock to rally. it did it already. the game is over. >> it's where they're going to. >> agreed. >> and dr. j, who made the more compelling argument on zynga? >> judge, you know i'm a bull on this one so it's not fair to you, murph, because even though it is stephen weiss, i'm going
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to go with stephen because i like the move here. i think it's very similar to andrew mason. also a very smart guy but just wasn't doing the job as the head of the company. i think this is a key strategic move. i think this stock sees $5 probably by the beginning of the fourth quarter, judge. >> do you think they overpaid them, doc, $50 million for the first year? >> not based on how much that stock has moved already, murph, no. >> this guy is not a-rod. they had to pay what they did to bring him into the house. >> now he has to perform. >> he adds another 500 million market cap, they haven't overpaid him. tweet us and we'll give you the results as we always do. today on big data download, what happens when hard work and performance aren't quite enough in courtney reagan and her special guest focus on a recent study that offers clues about the secrets to getting that big promotion. you can catch it all, up next, earnings season kicking
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and how do you play it? we've got to all covered for you. are americans giving up their gas guzzling ways? carless homes at record highs. and gas consumption is falling. what that means for the industries involved. and if they're not buying cars, maybe they're buying boats. sales there surging. mary thompson has our report. meantime, back to scott and "the halftime" team. >> thank you. see new 12 minutes. jpmorgan, wells fargo reporting second quarter results before the bell next friday. it's time to take your positions ahead of the banks on earnings. weiss? >> i think it's going to be a good quarter, not a great quarter because we really haven't seen or we haven't heard about tremendous loan growth, but i believe looking forward the discussion will be net interest margins which are going up. it will also be some of the talk of losses on bond portfolios. that's already been absorbed in the stock as of a week ago. now it's growth and improving economy. own the banks here. they've corrected, believe it or not, own them here. >> do we all gra he?
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>> absolutely. jpmorgan and wells fargo. wells fargo doesn't give you that same oom poomph. >> they have exposure to housing, wells fargo through the mortgage business. all the banks have pulled back. wells has kept chugging along. of course, i'd love to own them a little lower, but we're long the banks. >> wells fargo is the my least fort gage because of the mort garnl exposure and because they're not going to pick up share in europe like citi and jpmorgan and b of a. >> but they're all about being slow bu steady. when you look at the names, you don't get the violent move to the downside or upside. look at 52-week highs. >> you may not get a great read until you get morgan stanley and goldman in terms of the fixed income currency and commodity trading and the impact of the market, the bond reaction as weiss you were talking about until the following week. >> that's true. but what you'll see from --
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first of all, i think part of that is in the stocks already. there will be less impactful to the bank's earnings and then uch the regional banks which have been pretty good movers, but i'd say with the -- >> there are multiyearare, as t. by the way, the talk of consolidation, that's why you're owning regionals. i can't imagine, these people have held on, some by their fingernail, and say just as things are getting bigger, we'll sell out. that's not going to happen. >> i think to your point on looking at goldman's trading book, goldman is 10% off its recent highs, and i think weiss might be right here. >> you're smiling if you say weiss -- >> i'm not ready to do that. no, i'm not ready to do that. it's a friday. >> let's broaden it out as the earnings season kicks off without alcoa reporting before the bell. earnings tricks and trends to watch. there's a look at a light but
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important calendar as we start earnings. weiss, you are fixated on wd-40. not alcoa? >> alcoa i think is so -- >> have you ever used wd-40? >> i have. i have hinges that every once in a while, you know, need -- >> people on his property. not hinges on me personally, but like a door. sorry, doc. in terms of alcoa, really insignificant. aluminum is commodity unto itself. it never has a pre-sage of what earnings season is going to be. we'll get into it in a week or two. >> that's true what he's saying about alcoa but you get a lot of insight to a lot of other areas. when alcoa's call comes out, their ceo is for the right with what's going on and you can get a major read. the banks is what to focus on. >> the banks is what we always get the read from.
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>> another individual name, you guys too scared to buy yum? >> no. jon, go ahead. >> you're exactly right, pete. yum brands, that's the one i think is a real focus. stephen and i are both going to be watching it because we have polar opposite views of how things are going in china, and this will give us a great read into that. coming up, our viewers have questions on everything from ford to disney. we're trading your tweets when the "half" comes back. it. the ones getting involved and staying engaged. they're not afraid to question the path they're on. because the one question they never want to ask is "how did i end up here?" i started schwab for those people. people who want to take ownership of their investments, like they do in every other aspect of their lives. vietnam in 1972.
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welcome back. when you the viewers ask we deliver on trades of four stocks that have lit up. coca-cola, ford ford, disney and amazon. >> weiss? >> it's steady, coca-cola, and the thing is if you like the market, and do i like the market, there's going to be volatility. this is a name that will par tis pay. not the best performance but nothing that you sell here, something that you hold on to. >> murph? >> ford motor? >> ford motor has performed phenomenally well over the course of this year and the back half of this year and this is a name you stick with here. you saw the auto numbers that came out. ford is hitting on all cylinders. the big gentleman on my right owns a couple of fords, and the ford is a stock we own and ride it into the 20s. >> doc, amazon? >> regulation and taxes are two risks going forward, judge, but
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i think they overcome both of those. i think this is a $300 number perhaps in the next two weeks. >> did you have something you wanted to rebut? >> no, i didn't want to rebutt. wanted to play him back a compliment for agreeing with me. rates coming down in europe and that being a trouble area another positive story. >> disney, pete? >> "lone ranger," big bomb but looking at valuations, getting into football. the bob identifyiger extension, good. >> we'll tell you who won our debate after the break. more after this. when the world moves...nce] futures move first. learn futures from experienced pros with dedicated chats and daily live webinars. and trade with papermoney to test-drive the market. ♪ all on thinkorswim.
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>> murph? >> key bank. >> that was mine. you stole mine. you saw that. >> key bank is mine. not his. >> doc? >> hban, and i'll throw one out for weiss, how about sun trust, weiss, sti. >> all right. have a great weekend. we'll see you on the other side. follow me on twitter. "power" starts right now. "halftime" is over. "power lunch" and the second half of the trading day start right now. >> good afternoon, everybody. up and down day for the dow after a big jobs number. the unemployment rate 7.6%, right where it was last month. what does this all mean for the taper patrol? the folks who wonder what's going to happen. there you see the dow up 95. now, that brings up the question what should you do now? we've got a roster full of people ready to answer. violence, of course, over in the middle east. let's go over here now to this monitor where the muslim brotherhood supporters are hitting the streets after friday prayers. they are, of course, angry to


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