tv Mad Money CNBC September 13, 2013 11:00pm-12:01am EDT
my mission is simple. to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere, and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money." welcome to cramerica. i'm trying to save you a little money. my job is not just to entertain, but i'm also trying to teach and coach you. call me here at cnb c. have you noticed that since the supposedly wicked month of september began, we've had one heck of a ride higher? have you noticed that the rallies seemingly has no end in
sight with this week representing the second best performing set of sessions since the beginning of the year? s&p rising. nasdaq even advancing 1.7%. i urge you, don't get too complacent. next week we get the real test of the bull of the month, when the fed meets on tuesday and wednesday. spells out what's going to happen with this bond buying program that seems to be quite infe ineffectual of late. given that interest rates currently available in the 10-year treasury nearly doubled since the spring. that's where our game plan begins. let's stipulate the importance of this spending. remember risk on, risk off? remember that bit of tom foolery garbage you were subjected to constantly? supposed to sell or buy stocks, depending on some read, of whether people were feeling bullish or bearish or risky or something? i'm glad i stomped it out. how about fed tapering? the process by which the fed will scale back its bond buying
program. we have been playing that game for too long. you missed the whole rally if you were waiting for it. and it might not even matter anymore! homes have been incredibly affordable the last couple of years, courtesy of how low the interest rates were. and how glutted the supply was. housing market's been knocked for a loop already. so if the federal reserve says it's not going to buy bonds aggressively any longer because the economy's getting stronger, i don't know if it will matter. enough already. the damage's been done. that's why you need a personal game plan. i think when we hear any tapering will occur, and that will be wednesday, there will be jokers out there who will bail out of stocks. when that happens, listen up. you need to be ready to buy some of the many stocks i've liked on the show. other than the home builders and housing supply companies, i don't think there will be that much earnings per share impact. remember, that's what moves stocks. that's what we should really
care about, and that's what we do on "mad money." be ready, keep your powder dry for 2:30 p.m. that's when i suspect we could be in the nastier part of the sell-off. that might be your chance if you look to buy the stocks not related to housing. particularly international industrials that have much more to do with china. that have much more to do with the mortgage market that the fed's been targeting. we've been waiting to see if higher rates have actually hurt the real economy away from housing. we get two numbers on monday to help us find out. the empire state survey and the empire production. i think they'll be strong. those who have been selling stocks because they believe there's newfound weakness in the economy, i think they'll be proven wrong by this. i've got to tell you something, there's a lot of people think the economy got weaker. as they're looking for apparel. monday's also the first day for the morgan stanley industrials in auto conference. this might be the last window to learn how the big industrials are doing, because remember, they've got to go quiet. that's right. they've got to go quiet near the end of the quarter. monday we hear from boeing. yeah. the same boeing everyone else
abandoned except for me when the dreamliner looked like a nightmare liner story. things have only got better of late as europe and china are growing more positive about their prospects. the tone could set the moments leading up to the fed meeting. boeing breaking out all-time highs. it is so not done, people. we also get the citigroup. global industrial conference hanging off. if they'rening thatting around hotel, why not a second shing dig? companies are chatter about a turn in china. that is emerson, which has been red-hot. and united technologies, all-time high. wednesday earnings reports could actually have major pin action. the most important one we hear from is teflon transport, also known as fedex. i've always loved this conference call. the company gives you a terrific view of the world. smith, the guy who runs it, i can't tell you how many times fedex has been negative over the last few years and has guided down its own earnings because of its own forecast. what's happening to the stock? how about a climb from the low 80s to 107. if fedex lowers the boom on the economy and its own numbers, you have to buy the stock.
perhaps with both hands. if we get a real dip after the fed has spoken. this is a beloved company. i don't see any sign that it's become scorned in any way. if they see anything positive, i tell you, they're going much higher. 120 next stop. we also hear from oracle next week. i have to tell you, this one has me puzzled. finally gave up, took a loss. it had to take a loss. sales force.com is eating their lunch. even though sales forces deal with them. oracle always has an excuse for why it's performing poorly. what will be their alibi this time? thursday we get results from two of my favorite turn-around retailers, terrific home goods play, pier one, which has a great housewares story. that we've caught a triple in. and right aid, a newly viable play. in what has been two horse races between cvs and walgreens. lots of people said the housing related plays should all be pronounced dead on arrival ever
since mortgage rates spike the. i'm not so sure of that. look at lowe's corp. pier one has not only gotten their act together, it's fully reinvented its website. think we like what the company has to say before the market opens. it might be a good trade. rite-aid could keep percolating, too. i think it will head to the $5 range from $3.50. remember, it was like the buck? that's where it stands out. thanks for cleaning up the former big sty of a rite-aid in my corner in brooklyn, right next to the f train stop. it's finally safe. i don't mind walking there anymore. we've got a blank slate on friday. no news, no earnings that matter. frankly, i think by the time we get there, we'll need the rest, as we will fully have digested whatever the fed means by the gobbledygook it releases on wednesday. hopefully this time next week we'll know who the fed chief nomination is. yeah, i think we'll know. and i bet we get that name on friday. it's not going to be -- it may not be spring, it may not be fall, it may not be winter. so there's the bottom line, it's
been a fantastic run so far for a month generally considered the worst of each year. next week, we get the first test of the december bull's real m mettle, and after this run, it's reasonable think we could get a sell-off around the time of the fed meeting. like here, okay, actually in the clock it will be here or there. then again, i have to admit i thought we would have had a sell-off already. i can't imagine we could be less complacent with the magic carpet ride. this isn't nearly as important as others do. but we won't know if i'm going to be right until friday. ben in new york. ben! >> caller: hi, jim, thanks again for taking my call yet again. i would appreciate your advice on it. i shorted october options for gld, about three weeks ago. when it was at $132. i'm thinking that i closed that position. i went ahead and bought a long position on it, on gdx, not on
gld, for the same october contract. what would you do in my position? >> you have to unwind it. unwind everything. don't fool around. unwind everything and put it back on if you still like it. that's what every trader needs to do. unwind on monday. do not fool around. you have just done the wrong thing. and right it. bill in new york, please, bill? >> caller: hello, jim. great big buffalo and buffalo bills buya to you! >> hey, you know, e.j. manuel, spiller, let people know, it's a fantasy thing. go ahead. >> caller: i saw them and they're getting hot now. >> okay. >> caller: i have a stock that's hot and i'd like your opinion of it. >> sure. >> caller: a small volume stock called insys therapeutics. and it's up 92% since earnings last month. it was an ipo less than a year
ago. >> boy, bill, buffalo bill, i've got to tell you, i've got to study this one. i mean, really. i don't know this one at all. and it is red-hot. i've got to do some work. there's been something like 15 biotech companies that have come public that just started. i'm going to do a big review of biotech next week. that's it. i can't take it anymore. let's go to tracy in texas. tracy? >> caller: hey, jimmy, i spoke with you before. i want to thank you, thank you, thank you. your observations by commenting going into the store, bought it yesterday at $101.77, sold it today for $115.95. it paid for college. my husband and i want to thank you. >> i just happened to go buy it in jersey city. it's packed. sometimes you do that. >> caller: i jumped on it. when i read the transcript it referred to the crm platform. we watched the show. when you're talking about the
clouds. is that crm platform -- >> we don't know. that's a generic thing, customer relations management. mark bennett is the ceo. unless it's on their website, and i didn't see it last time, you don't know whether it's them. i always ask them, hey, listen, i went to so-and-so, is that yours? he's too discreet, mark bennett. my friend herb is a contributor to cnbc, he's saying don't take the bait. you know what, if this is the bait, consider me hooked. september, what an anomaly of a month. i still can't think of a week to be less complacent. there's also friday, by the way, hump day could produce the first big sell-off and give us a chance. "mad money" will be right back. coming up, dynamo? it could be the best stock you've never heard of. after more than doubling this year, can this big data spec continue to make cash rain down
from the clouds? cramer's got the forecast next. and later, i-p-oh my. the social superstar of the decade is going public. but twitter isn't the only hot story hitting the street. don't miss cramer's take on the new names you need to have on your radar in "know your ipo." plus, you ask, he answers. >> 1-800-flowers. >> you send cramer back to the books. now he's got the answers you need. plus, jim responds to your tweets at jim cramer #mad tweets. all coming up on "mad money." in a world that's changing faster than ever,
we believe outshining the competition tomorrow requires challenging your business inside and out today. at cognizant, we help forward-looking companies run better and run different - to give your customers every reason to keep looking for you. so if you're ready to see opportunities and see them through, we say: let's get to work. because the future belongs to those who challenge the present.
when it comes to tech stocks, you can never stop looking for the next big thing. a revolutionary new product comes along, and it tends to leave the previous generation of tech stocks in the dust. not to mention making boat loads of money for the companies behind the game changer. that tends to be true of any industry. but in tech, these game changers seem to come along a lot more frequently. when i started investing, tech was all about main frames. they were the cutting edge. they got replaced by smaller, cheaper, more powerful machines. mini computers, micro computers. the main frames are totally obsolete. we're in a world of cloud competing and big data. it's the vast quantities of information we create everyday. tonight, for speculation friday, i want to tell you about a
company with a disruptive technology that's taking the big data universe by storm. i'm talking about splunk. splk for you home gamers. fresh faced software company was founded in 2003 and just became public about a year and a half ago. you need to know the way the company historically managed their data. for ages now, the standard had been what's known as relational data base management systems. that's a $35 billion business dominated by oracle, which reports next week, ibm and sap. for all the shat chatter about big data, technology world, the truth is only 10% of the data out there is actually structured in one of these businesses. what about the other 90%? the unstructured data. that's where splunk comes in. much of this unstructured data, this stuff is what's known as machine data. which includes all the data generated by all the systems running in data centers, all the connected devices, applications, servers, security devices, machine-to-machine remote
infrastructure that powers any given enterprise. until splunk came along nobody was really doing much with this machine data. in part because it's kind of a catch-all category. there are literally thousands of distinct machine data formats. that makes aggregation very difficult. but splunk's platform takes the machine data and makes it accessible. usable. and, most of all, valuable to its clients. thus the heart of the big data theme you can use this information to diagnose security problems, assess the health of your remote equipment, and demonstrate compliance to your regulators, among so many other great applications. ultimately, splunk has figured out a way to figure out what's important in this machine data and bring it to the desktop in a format that's easy for users to understand. let me give you an analogy. make this easier to understand. the traditional data base model is like stumbling around in a cave, okay? with a flashlight. i mean, you know you can't see very much. a lot of stuff is in the dark.
with splunk, you get full illumination, meaning you can see what's happening. give value out of vast quantities of data just sitting there untapped. in fact, the founders named the company splunk as a reference to splunking, or whatever you want to say, when you go through caves. i used to call it splunking. hey, splunk. here's a telling quote from the director of product management at cramer fave salesforce.com. the fact that we had a data treasure chest was not obvious until splunk came into the picture. guys, is that an endorsement or what? i think it's a very disruptive technology. splunk has become the leader in the unstructured data business. tam for splunk software could all be worth north of $30 billion. the company's already blowing the competition out of the water. and a lot of major tech
companies have already partnered with then, cisco, ibm, big data companies. splunk software can be installed and implemented by a single person in a matter of hours. huge step up that required an entire of people that took months or years. and a separate platform plunk storm. for analyzing data from cloud. i think this story is in its early days. the company's been increasing the size of their sales force. 189 reps up from 174 in the fiscal first quarter. 50% of these reps are fully productive yet. they plan to grow sales by as much as 70% year over year. some think it should boost the revenues. can you imagine what's restraining you is you don't have enough sales people? oh, the clients are out there. splunk just reported at the end of august, delivered a smaller than expected earnings loss with higher than anticipated
revenues. it grew 50% year over year. the company also gave upside guidance for the full year. the next day the stock shot up 12.8%. it has not looked back. this is the yelp of big data. there's just one problem, the stock, like yelp, is very expensive. splunk has already doubled since the beginning of the year. how much money is being made in this market. we don't talk about it enough. splunk trades at 12 times, not earnings, but sales. little worrisome. it's not yet profitable. although it should move into the black next year. i don't like to chase, i don't like to pay through the nose for anything. but splunk is growing like crazy. it will grow like crazy for the next three years. it should be able to sustain revenue growth north of 35%. there's only a couple that do that, salesforce.com, 3035. companies could make 90% gross market. and if splunk is really
serving a $30 billion market, maybe traditional analysis can gain the opportunity here. this might be one of those stocks you need to break free from the four walls of the spreadsheet canvas. i prefer to wait for the stock to get knocked down, not by itself, because i think it's doing really well, but by the next marketwide pullback. brazil riots, remember those? that will be your best chance unless they do a secondary offering which would be an opportunity, like linkedin. sanchez, told you so. here's the bottom line. i think splunk could be a game changer. i think the stock is worth owning. but for speculation only, please. and i would only buy a tiny bit at these levels. splunk, the best new company you probably never heard of. and the one that i think will roar to the finish line by the end of 2013. after the break, i'll try to make you more money. coming up, i-p-oh my. the social superstar of the decade is going public.
everyone will want some. even if it goes out at $20 billion. which comes to 17 times sales. that's the highest valuation i've heard anyone discuss so far. of course, it's me doing the discussing. all i ask right now on this deal, listen, people, who work at the big firms. all i ask is the book runners, be fair. try not to hurt the regular investor. we all know we want to be in on this deal. it's vital that this ipo not become the son of facebook. even if that makes sure it gets down to the new york stock exchange, for instance, if the nasdaq can't absolutely be sure that another facebook fiasco won't occur. how many people were left in this market because of the nasdaq did. can the people who run twitter and the exchange it's selected and the bankers involve all agree that there should be winners all around? we know that's possible. it's happened before. it can happen again. those are my first thoughts about the ipo of a company that i, at jim cramer, admire and use
around the clock, literally around the clock, giving my insane nonsleeping habits. as the coo of big buzz told us last night. twitter is the train tracks of the new media. what all the news and ads and commentary runs on. it's as much as advertisers want as much as facebook. it says that they want to build a great company and this is just the start. i am shocked that this company wasn't bought. i have to tell you, it's still not too late for apple to do something smart and buy twitter. even if the company's looking to get a sky-high valuation when it becomes public. that would still be something for the cash starched apple, who does not have a high ipe, because they don't see any growth. we don't know much about the company yet, but we do know this. there's a price for everything. the price for social media has been wrong pretty much every time in the aftermarket of an ipo. even with the best deals there's been a better price than the opening price on the deal, about 90% of the time.
in other words, not the price where they price the merchandise, but where it opens. rarely do you get one where the price is below where the deal actually came. but where it opens, that has often been a high water mark. they said we're all guessing what twitter's worth. i agree. i would have pegged it $20 billion. how did i get that? if it were much less than that, i think the company would have already been bought by somebody else. that's a daunting figure, $20 billion. that's kind of where a lot of people don't want to pay. the price makes sense, the company has one-fifth of the users facebook does. facebook is slightly worth more than $100 million. twitter is growing as fast, if not faster than facebook. that's the only back of the envelope calculation i want to make here. it looks to be on track for the best year for new offerings since 2007. before the financial crisis hit. not only have we had a lot of deals, but they've been performing fabulously. of the 131 stocks that have
ipod in 2013, on average they've given you a 22.6% gain when they became public. a fifth of this year's ipos are up more than 50%. guys, there's been a lot of good deals. just not the ones are not high profile. the best performing areas? biotech is one of the best areas. biotech, high growth stocks, particularly on the consumer end, those have been the best. so far this year, 33 health care deals up an average of 54%. most of them were biotechs. 24 of those were biotechs. we've also had 22 tech deals. within tech, the 15 software ipos have been rallying 56%. finally, there have been only nine consumer-focused ipos in 2013, but up an average of 53%. guys, they're giving the money away. going forward, not a ton of deals coming. the twitter big ipo announced, but the truth is, we don't know enough yet in part because of the jobs act back door twitter is using. i wish twitter wouldn't have done this. i liked the intense scrutiny you get from a deal that goes
through the sec's corporate finance gauntlet. i would rather focus on deals that are near to hand. specifically, two companies coming public next week that fit into the sweet spot that's working this year. you should get a piece of both of them. first, there's fire eye. a cybersecurity play that plans to list under the symbol feye. fire eye. fire eye provides a virtual machine-based security software platform for enterprises and governments that detect next generation malware. short for malicious software, which hackers use to break into your system or simply steal sensitive information. is this segment fabulous? now, fire eye has been on fire. the company sales have doubled and doubled again, year after year, for the 12 months, ending this past june. they booked $115 million in revenue. they now have 1,001 customers. including a fortune 500. and fire eye has terrific bloodlines. the ceo was the old president and ceo of mcafee before he sold to intel for 60% premium. in a deal that closed in the
first month of 2011. if we can repeat that performance with fire eye, he will make his shareholders some very happy campers. fire eye plans to sell 14 shares at a price range of between 12 to 14. at the midpoint, that would put the valuation roughly 13 times sales over the last 12 month, which is far from cheap. we like earnings, not sales. 13 times earnings is good. 13 times sales is rich. as long as it's not north of 16, i think it could have a nice pop. if you can't get in on the deal, hey, pass. play bridge. pass. you should get a piece of benefit focus. that's a cloud-based software platform for managing employee benefits. and it plans to list under the symbol bnft. this is in the cloud sweet spot. it's in the early stage of the growth. the company has 2% penetration
of large employer market. but everything is being moved into the cloud these days. i think the stock could be a good way to play. the price range for benefit focus is 2150 to 2450. the mid point of that range, this would be a tiny $629 million company, trading at 6.7 times its sales over the last 12 months. that's not so expensive for a fast growing cloud play. i think this ipo is worth trying to participate in. the first day spike could be stupendous. i wish these deals were trading on earnings, not sales, though. my discipline says be careful. here's the bottom line. let's hope that they make twitter good for everybody. while we're on the subject of initial public offerings, remember, try to get in on fire eye, and benefit focus, when they come next week. and as my statistics show for the year, never, ever buy a social media ipo in the aftermarket where it opens, not where it is priced on the deal. you almost always get a better price later on. susan in california, susan? >> caller: hey, great fan of
your show. watch it every day. you've given me fabulous tips. i hung on to starbucks. now i've got gigamon. interesting stock you recommended. i bought it at $27, it's plus $40. i want to see what your view is. >> no, it goes higher. this is networking products. that's exactly what the sweet part of this market is. we know that from juniper. i think we'll hear from cisco this quarter. stay long. it's gigamon. i know it's like pokemon but it's gigamon. can i go to steve in new york, please? steve? >> caller: hi, jim, thanks for taking my call, to you and your staff. >> my staff's fabulous. make me look good every single day. >> caller: i bought william lyon homes two months ago and i'm down about 20%. i see it has good resistance at this level near 20. but last month, three analysts started following it and i don't know if now it's hit the deck. i'm wondering if i should hold. >> i would hold it. i think we're going to see --
mortgage rates are going to stabilize, i believe. if mortgage rates stabilize, it could rally 10% to 15%. then you have to go. the housing business has peaked in this country, courtesy of the interest rate rise that really has decked the mortgage market. how about chris in texas? chris? >> caller: hey, jim. chris, a first-time caller. regular viewer and newsletter subscriber. want to thank you for your knowledge, hard work and generosity. to all the viewers out here. my question's about go go in-flight entertainment, ipo'd around 16, dropped to about 10 and has been on a pretty quick run. up about 25% over the last three, four days. i really wanted to get your thoughts on it. >> chris, first of all, thank you for subscribing. this is one of those where, frankly, i -- as soon as you mentioned it, i thought i'm a subscriber to go go. i don't fly that much. but i saw the stock creep up this week. i don't know the reason why. maybe we should do a full bore analysis of gogo for you, and our other viewers next week. trending now, social media. it's red-hot. the tweet heard round the world
told us that i just hope the twitter ipo is fair. all right? please, bankers, brokers, listen to me, make it fair. fire eye and benefit focus look pretty good, too, but we cannot have -- i cannot bear to see the people leave the stock market because of screwups by bankers. still ahead, you ask, he answers. >> 1-800-flowers. >> let me do more work on it. >> you sent cramer back to the books. now he's got the answers you need. jim responds to your tweets at jim cramer #madtweets just ahead.
>> hi, neil. i'm thinking of trading my race stock for royal stock. >> august 24th, the rays were percentage points ahead of the red sox. then joe maddon went all dr. doolittle. his team's acting like it's snake bit ever since. >> what was that? what is that? no, that is neil everett, the fabulous neil everett from espn. he's known as the calm and fabulous voice, smart guy, espn. love that. thanks, neil. now it is time for the "lightning round." and then the lightning round is over. are you ready, steve? steve in new york. >> caller: hello from new york. first-time caller. starbucks, what do you think? >> starbucks, fed meeting by the second half, even if it's
higher, i don't care because i like that stock so much. tom in wisconsin. tom? >> caller: hey. jimmy. pba, what do you think? >> that's a canadian. i don't recommend it. let's go to ed in california. ed? >> caller: booya, from northern california. >> sweet. >> caller: you always tell your viewers to say diversify. the last three years, i've owned these two stocks, symbol hxl and beav. i know these companies, jim, are basically the same type of aerospace business. i'm up about 150% on both. what should i do with them? >> you have 20% of your portfolio in one sector, i'll bless that. less than that, i think you're fine. those are really both fine companies. you have to have eight other stocks. it's about the number of stocks. max in puerto rico. >> caller: hi, jim, booya, how are you doing? >> good, booya, how are you? >> caller: good. i'm just wondering what do you
think about l and g? >> it was red-hot on the news that dominion got approval. dominion is a competitor. let's go to horice in virginia. >> caller: thank you for taking my call. i need your input on ngi. >> no, no! that's next to emg. we like emg. that's the one we want to be in. all right, let's go to andrew in florida. >> caller: yes. professor cramer, big fyu booya. blo. >> listen, there are so many oil companies we like. i'll also send you to eog. that, ladies and gentlemen, is the "lightning round." >> the "lightning round" is sponsored by td ameritrade. [ indistinct shouting ]
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homework caught up. it's a tiny business, there's like 100 of these, they all sound the same. been a showner for a tedecade. until a week ago when they struck a deal. which is a super on bio tech. it's bear. 10 million up front. 500 million potential milestone payments. doesn't that sound good? you're not alone. compu jen just went up. 68% move since the news broke on august 2nd. i say we got to let this cool off. it's nouft judge my style. it's just not my style. perhaps a dip in the stock. you get dips. next up on september 4th, miles in minnesota, wanted to know about 1-800-flowers. flws. as you probably know, the company is a world leader in floral arrangements and gift baskets. clean balance sheet but i don't
see any spark of higher revenue growth. 15.8 times earnings. you know what, up 47% for the year. i don't know. if you had that run, i'd probably take some off the table. mike in new york asked me to opine on immunonex. i wanted a closer look before i said anything. because the company is so small and speculative. it's a tiny $500 million biotech that specializes in cancer autoimmune diseases like lupus. it has an exciting pipeline. the stock's doubled year to date. i need to see it cool off some before i can give it my blessing. so many biotechs have doubled. i said the same thing when it was at $5. now it's up 20%. i wish i had caught that move but it's simply too risky for me up here. if you own, i suggest it's time to take the pipelines. let the pipelines catch up with the lofty evaluations. the group is too hot. we know there's going to be a correction. i don't want to be recommending them when there's a correction. i like the ones that i want. on wednesday, shay in maryland
challenged my global stock knowledge, with the symbol gram. it's the largest engineering construction company in peru. expanding new countries, like chile and colombia. it became public, now just trading below the offering price. i view this as a speculative play on peru. given latin america is out of favor, courtesy of the rest of the rise in interest rates in the u.s., i'm not surprised they didn't do better. but i think the emerging companies are coming back. it's worth considering. the company's growing its backlog by 76% over the last few years. the stock trades at a discount to other construction engineers. i'm giving them my blessing. i want to thank shay for this terrific emerging market idea. i would like to say, i've always been a fan of shay's work. but i think that's a totally different shay. he may not have been a stand-up guy.
maybe that's just my old reactionary self in my older age. now your tweets. all right. this one is from at ms. lobelia. jim, should i move my boeing price target higher now that it's at a new high or trim? i find stocks i really like and i don't want to have to say, i'm raising my price target. or that you think i'm not being disciplined. i think boeing is a huge stock, and you own it for multi-year move. i don't say what the price should be. i just say you own it for a multiyear move. so if that means raising your price target, yes, indeed. here's one from trisha tnk who says, jim is #buffalo wild wings. you still like this one? yeah, they are. they're opening them globally. yes, i still like this one. i know people were shorting a stock like mcdonald's rolled out wings. they're not the same. you get the wings, the hot sauce, the beer, big screen tv. hey, you get the burner. they're different. let's go to a tweet. this one from jay dez.
who might be like dez bryant, i don't know, dez watch. hey, did you see desean jackson's mother retweeted me? thanks for the great show. under armour. no. i don't like teva when i lost a ton on it. the compact zone, exception, was going, let's say had too much competition. i don't like teva. i like deshawn jackson's mother.
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this morning on the "squawk on the street," i found myself stymied. david and i were all discussing about what's about to happen in washington. we could be looking at another debt ceiling showdown, as well as possible fear of government shutdown. judging by the current rhetoric, that's precisely what's going to occur. we'll stare down the barrel of another federal fiasco, fewer
than three weeks from now. i then turned to carl and said when that occurs, there's no way we're going down. there's no way this stock market can handle that kind of pressure from washington. you know what it's going to be like. we'll hear about social security checks not going out, possible u.s. government debt downgrade. and those will all weigh on the stock market. sell, sell, sell. ask me a logical question, do you just sell now? i thought about it for a second and i said, you know, i've actually been advising people to do a little selling. but candidly in this red-hot september, i've been wrong. then david asked me what will i be thinking as we get closer to this political gun fight. i told him here's how it works. i'll say you should be doing some selling right now. i'll be saying that right into the event, but the market will keep going higher and higher. and then i will break down and say, i can't take it anymore. just go buy something! and that will mark the top. of course, i was being
facetious. sure, the market is stronger than expected. but it's also frothier than expected. ultra salon traded up today. i know there were people thought it might miss. it is a very high flying retailer. this rally is 17 points. there are a ton of managers who can't resist owning a retailer that had an honest to betsy better than expected quarter. you don't believe me? check out the recent runs in lumber liquidators and tractor supply. as i always say, my friend david faber, these are the keys to the market. i show you how the portfolio managers are willing to throw money at the market. how much they're willing to pay top dollar for the most prosaic of growth retailers. i don't like this kind of activity. yes, i obviously want stocks to go higher, because the vast majority of you own stocks. i want you to make money. and most of you aren't short
sellers. but i don't like it when they shoot up 17 points on some better than expected news. we've been having these exaggerated words. up 6%, upgraded by credit suisse. there's hints something bigger going on. maybe earnings surprise? but the real truth is, people are just incredibly enthusiastic about the stocks right now. much more than i've seen in, let's say, 14 years. we saw it yesterday, too, when walgreens made a gigantic move. one of the best in the entire s&p. what happened? goldman recommended it. little ridiculous, right, convince buy? culmination of the stock market has changed, reverted to the way it was in the '80s and '90s. perhaps my skepticism should be suspended because it sure wasn't prudent in the 1980s and 1990s to stay skeptic. to me, this is a little too much. still, as i completed the discussion with carl and david this morning, it became clear to me these worries are still articulated today, and could be made in the last few weeks. like left out of 3, 4%. this has left me boxed in,
people. my discipline says you can't chase it up here. but the market's mocking discipline on a full-time basis. here's my conclusion. i can't embrace froth when i see it. not when the government is on the eve of shutting down. the fed reserve beating at the door. all the sell-offs we've had since obama was elected president and even before in the last couple of years with bush. that means i just have to trim and wait. which is what i'm doing with my charitable trust. i don't play two-faced here. i hope i won't end up screaming, that's it, i can't take it anymore, go buy anything you want. but for me, september was supposed to be a mighty tough month, but it's only been tough for the skeptical. i am staying cautious. betting that we'll get a better opportunity to buy the stocks i like so much. but i just can't chase it up here. because that's just not my style. stay with cramer.
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try to let everybody win. don't make it like facebook. also to the exchange who gets it, please don't make it like facebook. we need winners, not losers. stop making the public look stupid. i'm jim cramer. i'll see you monday! >> a modern american miracle -- your neighborhood supermarket. 48,000 items under one roof. >> oh, boy, it's just like a playground of food. >> you're looking at the abundance of america, in a way. >> absolutely. >> you've got to see what i found over here. >> a half-trillion-dollar industry that touches us all. >> you are empowered to make. somebody's day. >> did you find everything you needed today? >> take a deep breath, because we're gonna wow you. >> a billion and a half dollars worth of groceries sold every day, reflecting what we want and who we are. i'll bet most people think
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