tv Fast Money Halftime Report CNBC October 18, 2013 12:00pm-1:01pm EDT
than google near 1,000. >> google, it's a world-changing, disruptive stock. chipotle, a good business, building a burrito, and raising the price. >> there are skeptics out there. we'll see what the coming quarters. in the meantime, good weekend to you. >> you, too. let's get over to post nine and scott wapner and "the halftime." >> here's what we're following. great google! is now the time to take profits or stay long? inside the playbook, designing the winning move and fixed income with one of the street's best, blackrock's rick reeder. we look at jpmorgan, and stronger economic growth in china. and we debate, is there any reason to be out of this market? it is "halftime," and let's play the action.
john, any reason to be out? >> i am not getting out. here would be a reason. we're up 90 points since paul richards made the great call on your show about the s&p 500 and 1,650 holding. he was dead on with that. we've gone up, as i say, over 90 s&p points since then. that's just two weeks ago, folks. so that'd be one reason people might want to lighten up. but as long as we get a little optimism instead of just fighting out of washington, the next couple of weeks are pretty critical, because we could be getting blame game started again, judge. if we get that, then i think people go to the sidelines, and then the market is vulnerable. >> steve weiss, if you look at what the bear case could be -- well, i don't know. okay, economic growth 2%. that's not great. the fiscal follies, as doc says, they'll pick up again, get back on stage in a few months. other than that, what is there? is there reason to be out of the market? >> the only reason to be out of the market is if you're a fund manager looking for a career change. that's the only reason to be
out. [ laughter ] you keep saying cash, keep fighting the bull market, one of the best bull markets ever, you'll need a different career. look, everything is lining up. usually, and everybody, i think, here is bullish. so that typically is a warning sign. they have a right to be bullish. easy money for as far as the eye can see, not just here but globally. and you have earnings that will move up. but valuation, we're at 14 times on a trailing basis, we're turning it over the 2014 earnings. the market -- i'm sorry, 14 times the flow base. it's inexpensivnexpensive, and see an 18 multiple, going to 1,900, 2,000 on the s&p. >> that's a tepper play he laid out earlier. this multiple expansion that a few people have been talking about, 18 to 20 times, simon baker, is there any reason to be out of this market? and if there is, tell me what it is. >> i mean, we're high up, and we like the view. the air is getting thinner.
the question is, where do you go if you're out of u.s. equities? you need to be long this market. the question is going to the end of the year, what sectors? you stick with the cyclicals, the tech, the financials, stay away from the consumer staples, but you have to be long this market. there's a lot of hedge fund managers wondering which one will be next year struggling at 6.5%. you have trillions of dollars waiting to get back in. and you had a dip, and you had to buy the market until your hands bled. the mistake continues to be not being in this market. all of the macro stuff we're talking about in august -- syria, merkel, china soft landing -- all of that is gone. it's back to fundamentals, back to stock picking, and to your point, earnings and picking good stocks. >> that's what it is about, pete. >> it always has been, though. >> and cooperman, you know, the great day on the street, he would still make the point if he
was sitting here right now, as he did on that show, where else are you going to be? >> right. this is the best house. we've talked about that how many times when we started the show off, where's the best house? it's right here. it's the united states. it's in the equities markets. you have to be careful. we're trading in a market all news-based, and now we'll get back to data, earnings season has kicked off, we'll continue into a very strong momentous earnings season, that we've had some weakness when you look at ibm, but strong spots, as well. it's been very short duration. when you look at what people are doing in this market, it's short duration. i would point out, and you brought it up a little while ago on the volatility index, scott, the range, 11 to 22. we're trading around 12 1/2, call it. if you're going to initiate positions, you better protect them. because up here, if you talked about the thin air, if we are in it, you could see this pull back. >> is there a bear case to be made, or not? yeah, a few major flops when it comes to earnings.
pete mentioned ibm. today's strong numbers across the board, a wide array of sectors, seems to have changed that. mike santoli join us with that. mike, yesterday, talking about the earnings and the outlooks, you say, yeah, ho-hum, but today, a different story. >> absolutely. it's going to give and it's going to take. i don't think earnings are the thing that will be this rally's kind of waterloo. but i also don't think in themselves they'll be broadly lifting us. it will be like you guys were talking about. the story this year has been about multiple expansion, people getting more comfortable with reallocating into equities, around we're far along on this process. all of the return this year, except for about 4%, 5% has been that multiple expansion. can it continue? yes. i don't think earnings themselves will be broadly bad enough to really change the basic feel of the market. >> yeah, there are those who, you know, you look at china, right, they come out with the economic growth, comes in better than some people had feared.
so, you know, that's a level of opt mifl. you still have growing optimism about what's happening in europe. yes, our economy isn't where anybody would like it to be. . the unemployment rate, the job growth, below expectations on all measures, but things are getting better. they seem to be. >> they are. and i do think what you will probably see during the earnings season, is maybe a little bit leadership, or more pronounced leadership and the industrial-cyclical story has to play out from here. the coal stocks reviving, the steel stocks reviving. maybe they're not great businesses or necessarily have great sustainable growth, but people are rediscovering them because the global growth picture has firmed up somewhat. >> doc? >> i want to point out a big trade on the vix, and it feeds into what scott is saying and what more or less all of us believe, and that is over the next couple of weeks, unless somebody wants to start throwing some sort of bombs around in washington, d.c., what we're
going to see is almost nothing. so we could see a continuation of the melt-up. we saw that, because guys came in and sold the vix, 19 calls and 26-calls spread, in november, judge, but they bought the spread out in february. that's telling you that they think nothing in the short term but a potentially very big move out in front. >> yeah. mike, let's also not forget, you know, we haven't mentioned the name, except in the open, google. when was the last time you saw a stock move a hundred bucks in a single day? because i honestly can't think of one since i've been around here. >> or added, you know, $30 billion in market cap, basically, in one bite. no, i haven't seen it. and that's the other story here, is that these kind of anointed global growth stories, i don't really see them flagging anytime soon. so google's at, you know, 20 times 2014 estimates. $1,000 stock seems like it's way up in the sky, but it's actually kind of rooted in something,
which is sustainable growth potential. so, you know, again, the market won't be all boats getting lifted, but i do think that because of the stories, and because of the general sense that there's nothing in the way, at least immediately, look, the only thing i'm worried about, everyone agrees there's nothing in the way for november and december. >> michael, have a good weekend. we'll see you next week. let's stay on the earnings story, with morgan stanley making our guest look impressive. here's what mike said last month. >> my top three picks, as you heard before on this show, are morgan stanley, morgan stanley, morgan stanley. >> all right. well, mike mayo is live on the phone. mike, welcome back. >> thanks for having me. >> you talk the talk. gorman walked the walk, right? >> well, this is the last management margin, at least a decade, doubled from a level two year es ago, getting the synergies from the smith barney acquisition, and i'd go further. i'd say this is the best time in
a 16 years since the dean ritter acquisition that they're getting it all together. >> you have to feel pretty good, like the colts drafting andrew luck and having the number-one pick perform up to expectations, right? >> well, it's not over. they're just midstream. and i pressed the ceo on the conference call, james gorman. he said it's just beginning in terms of the pickup and the benefits from the acquisition of the joint venture. and if you look at the last year, they've certainly taken out a lot of cost in terms of downsizing branches by 8%. but on the other hand, this was confirmed on your show two times ago, scott. the attrition in financial advisors have gone down, and they've actually added financial advisors this quarter. they actually got $20 billion additional deposits that they're redeploying and the margin improved during a weak seasonal quarter, so i think there's more good news to come.
>> mike, simon here. great call on morgan stanley. i read your know on goldman sachs, where does goldman go from here. at this stage, do you get out of goldman and go long morgan stanley? >> well, as i said on the show the last few time, morgan stanley is my number-one pick. i still like goldman sachs. i don't have the catalyst. it was a bad quarter, brought down the compensation, something they do typically in the fourth quarter. goldman will be fine. maybe one quarter miss. but it's not my front-burner selection. >> mike, i have to run. the last question. jpmorgan, after the earnings in your universe, where do you put it? >> i see the money -- they need to resolve the labor issues, we're awaiting the $9 billion, $10, $11 billion settlement. it's up to jamie dimond to get
the fair deal for shareholders. >> good to talk to you, mike. be well. dead money. jpmorgan. >> totally disagree. completely disagree. i don't think it's dead money. you have plenty of upside there. when this thing starts to return some of the money back, i think jpmorgan can outperform some of the other bank, actually including the wells fargos, a lot more of a steady earning type. i think jpmorgan -- >> that is a negative statement from one of the boast influential and banking estimates, mike mayo calling them dead money. >> yeah, goldman up 23%, they're up 23%, jpmorgan, and look at the outperformance with the number-one pick, morgan stanley, up 54%. but then switch over to jpmorgan, and you look at the credit cards, judge, and you look at the refi business and all of the rest. there are more streams over there. yes, jaime has a target on his
back, but i wouldn't say it's dead money. when they sign that deal, like stevie cohen, then it's katie bar the door. >> i want to hear from weiss on morgan stanley. steve, i think you would be the first to say there was a time not long on this program you would much more negative than positive on morgan stanley, and i noticed your view seems to have come around, based on the execution of gorman and performance of wealth management, across all lines of that business. >> so i own morgan stanley going into the quarter. my view had turned, and part of that is because i do think you see the generational move into equities, and they are the most leveraged broker with the banking for that. i bought goldman sachs this morning, because to me, goldman sachs is still, in terms of talent, the deepest company in financials, and maybe in the whole s&p 500. every individual i've ever dealt with there is top flight. they just don't miss a beat. >> i'd agree with weiss. i think goldman is a screaming
buy. i think they just had a 6 bad quarter. buy it on the dip. google up above a thousand bucks, and it is big news. but it's raising eyebrows on the stock exchange. >> i do worry. we're hearing things reminisent to the 1999-2000 period, that the number of hits, the number of eyeballs -- >> all right. find out from mark mahaneny whether now is the time to trade. and is there a better place to put a thousand bucks to work? we're back live on the s&p. the most free research reports, customizable charts, powerful screening tools, and guaranteed 1-second trades.
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welcome back to post nine. what a day for google, topping more than a thousand bucks a share. is there anything that can knock the stock off the record run? mark mahaneny joins us live. mark, welcome. >> hey, scott. >> make the case that now's not the time to take some profits? >> yeah, okay. we've just gone through the, i think, toughest fundamentals quarter, going through the shift towards mobile. it's been an overhang for the last year, uncertain how it
would settle out. it looks like it settled out positively to the company. the core search business has nice growth for next year, and there's opportunity for revenue growth in acceleration, and the new bets -- relatively new bets like youtube, and good long-term bets. the valuation is not stretched on this name. talking about 18, 19 p/e multiple for at least the midteens, earnings grower. the valuations are reasonable. you can make money here. >> a guy like jeff said, you have to harvest some of the profits. the run is extraordinary. the one-day run of 100 bucks is extraordinary in and of itself. >> yeah. you know, step back and think about the valuation. again, this is the single best way to play the growth in online advertising. you can buy it at a modest premium to the market. you know, three, four multiple points higher than the market, with investments in new growth areas. that's a rare combination. there's one big overhang on all technology stock, which is technology obsolescence, but you
have a management team here, to their credit, has invested several times successfully against future trends -- whether it was video or mobile. you stick with the management team, you stick with the stock. >> a quick question on mobile use. we mentioned mobile usage going up and up, but advertiser the aren't paying much for the mobile ad as they did on the desk top. how will they overcome that longer-term? >> i think that's the bull case here, because you certainly have the gap between desktop and mobile monetization. but we're seeing that narrow. every year, the gap gets smaller. you want to own names like google when they're coming out of the gap, they've closed that gap. you'll have that for the next two, three years. it's the reason why i think you can bank-- almost bank on 20% revenue growth out of google for the next two to three years because they're closing that gap. >> mahanes, would you agree the chatter we heard about, the nfl, whether or not the direct ticket would leave the directv, the nfl game day pass, would leave directv and perhaps go over to
an internet service providing delivery mechanism, whether it's apple or google, that's another possibility here, and it's emphasized, in fact, i believe, by the report that they had about their chromecast and how the adoption is going over there. do you agree that that could be one of the big -- really significant revenue drivers for them going forward? >> you know, it could be. consumers have voted with their eyeballs, if you will. there are a billion people that are on almost daily basis going to youtube. you know, youtube is much more than the mtv of this generation -- of our generation. it's becoming close to being the tv of this generation. and with that, with that kind of user base, with that kind of ability to monetize through advertising, it has to be an increasingly attractive channel for active content, whether it's sports or not. >> mark, a thousand bucks in your pocket. it's burning a hole. all right? priceline or google? where is it going?
>> yeah, okay. given that setup, i think you actually get better growth profile out of priceline. priceline is number-two pick. amazon would be first. i like both, priceline and google. if you had to pick between the two, pick priceline. >> interesting answer. all right. we'll continue on the desk. mark, good to talk to you. you've been right on the money on google. we appreciate you coming on. >> thank you. >> mark mahaneny over at rbc. guys, i pose the same question. i'm surprised he said priceline, but he did. >> to me, it doesn't matter what you buy. you buy 20 shares of $50 stock or one share of $1,000 share, it's the same return in capital. in terms of those two stocks specifically, i agree with him completely. the growth factors and the valuation of priceline make it a better stock. it's a cheaper stock in valuation than google. >> and 20 shares of facebook i'd buy over google. >> that's not the question, though. good answer. >> thank you. [ laughter ] >> what's the answer? >> the answer would be priceline. >> doc? >> what i really liked here,
judge, is what you and i talked about many times as far as mobile. the google, i didn't think, was growing fast enough in mobile. this recent report says they are. 40% or more of the youtube views are now coming from mobile. that's a big switch. that's something that they can monetize. and so, i guess i'm going to say google. >> everybody talks about mobile, so i'm going to bring it up, as well. who's really getting the winds now in mobile? it's yahoo!. i know everybody -- i know, steve, we disagree, but i look at yahoo! cut back of alli baba they were going to share. they've cut back there. getting kicker from that. and then you look at what they've done in mobile. 15% growth this past quarter. 380 million uniques coming to the site. there's a lot of rhines why if you put the same dollars -- yahoo! versus google -- yahoo! will outperform it. >> it's not growing as fast, even with aggressive numbers, it's a more expensive stock. and to me, the honeymoon period
will be over. >> it's not just about search. that's the one thing where you and i, i think, viewed yahoo! differently. people look at yahoo! and say it's a search company. >> google is not either. the world -- the world runs on android. that gives them so much opportunity. >> but if you look at google, the revenues are 90-plus percent coming from one spot -- search. >> advertising. >> right. that's where -- they're the same company. >> you still -- all right, going back to hq. a quick market flash from bertha coombs. >> athena health as an all-time highing, trading 17 times volume. the company missed on the bottom and the top line on its earnings report. in is a company that provides medical records, electronic medical records in the cloud. they have a couple of big wins and the street seems excited about that. sterne agee upgrading them. a lot of folk are wondering if
it's already been factored in. it's part of the big move we're seeing upwards. >> doc, i can only imagine what jonathan bush must be like in the office today. >> you can only imagine, right? >> yeah, the energy he brings every time he's on this network. >> he's great on the air. >> we have to get him on "the halftime" one of these days. he's very entertaining and running a great company. 2010, a $22 stock. you look at it today, as it screams up to 130. fabulous performance. it puts on $1 billion. we talked about google. everybody is focused on that. that's a huge number. in their space, for them to grow $1 billion in a day like this, especially on a miss, that says a lot. >> how about this? coming up, chipotle continues to grill the shorts. shares hitting another all-time high after its earnings blowout. we'll tell you how high the mo-mo stock can go. and nobody prepared to bring down the xs and os than rick
rieder. halftime from right here at post nine. back after this. [ bagpipes and drums playing over ] [ music transitions to rock ] make it happen with the all-new fidelity active trader pro. it's one more innovative reason serious investors are choosing fidelity. get 200 free trades when you open an account.
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welcome back to "the half." let's do the top three trades. first up, chipotle is leading higher, trading at an all-time high. pete? >> when you look at what they've done with the earnings, beat by 17%, 18% on the sales. this is a company that continues to perform. it's in that middle range where you're talking about casual fast, and they're doing an outstanding job when you look at their competition. i think it goes higher. credit sterne agee for bumping it up in front of the earnings, not after. >> how about intuitive surgical, one of the few stocks in the red, because of an ugly earnings report.
i can hear herb greenberg standing in san diego, "i told you so." >> yeah, he did. and we shouted him out yesterday on the "earnings squad" yesterday, saying a whole bunch of issues here. discretionary surgeries, going for the laparoscopic or some sort of machine-assisted entry to make the recovery faster and all of the rest. people have been cutting back on that. there are some issues in the fda warning letter. but i covered shorting last night, as i say, and the stock is $14 off the lows of last night. >> how about schlumberger, steve? >> the company commentary saying around the world, the economies have stabilized or improve, including in europe. oil never goes out of style. you want to own the service companies, not necessarily the commodity. we're going to get halliburton reporting. >> guy, we like this name. a friend of mine who covers this stock telling me the first time in five years that all geographic business regions had operating margins above 20%. >> unbelievable.
>> impressive. >> yeah, they're knocking it out of the pocket. the energy space has been on fire. i agree with you, not necessarily the crude itself. you look at the baca names, the service names, the driller, and now the refiners participating, a lot of folks a part of the run. >> and still at the price of crude, even where it drops to 80, extremely profitable, and they'll continue to bring it out of ground, out of the ocean, this is a secretary you want to own. let's go inside the "halftime playbook." today, the xs and os on fix income, and who better than rick rieder. he oversees $650 billion in assets and joins us live. good to see you again. >> nice to see you. thank you. >> bonds and stocks, will they continue to go up now we have a deal in d.c.? >> yeah, you know, what you're seeing is once you get there you a deal, the incredible amount of liquidity in the system. i think oftentimes it's misinterpreted for the fed, putting in liquidity that finds its way in the stock market. i think stocks have gone up for different reasons.
i think companies have changed their capital structure, and debt stock is cheaper. do i think it will push markets higher? i do. and what you seeing in the treasury market today and yesterday, is unlocked liquidity. people are willing to take risks. >> we set this segment up, going inside our own "playbook" on the show, and telling the folks where the specific plays are in the market. where do you think there's a touchdown to be made, if you will, in fixed income? >> there's nothing cheap in the fixed income globally. the derivative impact of quantitative easing, easing monetary policy in europe, japan, it tightening money. there's still money to be made in fixed income. we like the shorter end of the curve, two to five-year, like asset-backs, commercial mortgages, and then if you go overseas, some of the peripherals, how places like portugal, ireland, which still have compression room to go.
>> you say peripheral. i was going to say are you buying greek debt. >> not as much. we've added a little. but slovenia is a place we like quite a bit. clearly banking stress in slovenia, but the government leverage is not that high. >> let's talk about high yield for a ekd is. we've gotten into a situation most-2008 where balance sheets are so much better. >> yeah. >> junk credits aren't as junky as they used to be. i know the value's not cheap relative to historically lows, it's actually expensive. isn't that a good place to play with the paradigm and how the balance sheets are going forward? >> it is. people talk about the tremendous issue. what people don't focus on, 75%, 80% of the issuance was pushing the maturity spectrum longer. you know what was earlier a wall, it's all been pushed out. again, it gets back to when you have this quantitative easing, it provides companies the ability to change debt stock. we think the high-yield market is attractive. we think it will continue to do well. if the equity market improves,
will you get the same spread compression you historically have gotten? no way. do you have a place to capture yields? i think so. >> have guys do what you do for a living had to reassess what the 10-year yield will be at the end of the year given the delay in the taper, and also yellen as part of that equation? >> yeah, a hundred percent. both of them. we think about, you know, we came out after the aggressive fed move, but the taper guidance being argued more easily, an effective way to argue the monetary policy, we thought you would touch 3%. >> yeah, as most people have. >> and you think about it today, we hit 2.50, so you're getting the lower end of the range. you're running out of upside. as far as yellen versus summers, i think one of the true powers of what the federal reserve can do is be transparent and be -- and give us some idea as to how
they'll respond to the data. i think janet yellen will be somebody that can do it, and i think it brings risk premium down. >> will she be as easy in terms of policy as everybody thinks? or do you think there's been so much press about that, she goes the other way a little? >> i think janet yellen is extraordinarily pragmatic. she is a true student of the date tarks true student of economic conditions. do i think her policy will be easy for the near term, because she sees that employment will take a long way to improve, i would argue there's structural reasons for that being the case. but i also think janet yellen is somebody who studies what the information flow is, and will react to it. i think she's getting a -- i think to characterize her as a permanent dove is not -- is not accurate. >> i lovecoming to the post. >> thank you. can anything cool down coors? shares are nearing all-time high, but could dysfunction in d.c. hurt the consumer and the stock with it. speaking of the consumer,
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♪ all right. shares of michael kors has jumped 50%, with the ipo just two years old. can anything slow that stock down? pete's the bull, dr. j. is the bear. pete, make your case. >> a brand-new category, the old category, they established it. it's called affordable luxury, and they own this world. they own this space. 91% of the revenues presently comes from the u.s. and canada. there's a lot of room for a whole lot of growth internationally, and that's next where they will plant their flag. that will be a big growth area, as well. when you look at the company, judge, they seem to be doing
everything right. they've had three secondaries in the last 19 months and the stock continues to go to upside. the sales growth is strong, as well. everything seems to be clicking for michael kors. it doesn't look overpriced. there are shorts in the name, i think it's going higher. >> i like michael kors a lot, and i like what they make, but they beat so handily the last three quarters, that they've raised the bar. they haven't sandbagged. so if they can blow through a great report, i'll be happy for them, but i'll be surprised. also, i'm seeing it now as discounters. i hadn't seen that. when you start to see that, i get a little nervous. lastly, no real panic. you do get at least once a quarter the mvp coming out with sort sort of a panic. yesterday, judge, nearly a $4 drop out of the stock when they said luxury handbags not selling as well as they thought. but they didn't single out course, but people jumped on it.
it's recovered from that loss. >> the last thing i would say is piper jaffray raised the price target. why did they do that? two catalysts. one, europe. they think it will be a monster catalyst. and two, they say teens are starting to buy the michael kors brands. [ buzzer sounds ] >> are you guys buying what one of the guys is selling? >> yeah, with pete, the comps in north america are tougher, but crushing in europe. in terms of expensive, last year this time, 35 times earnings, and now 25 times. it's actually cheaper than it was last year, so i'd be long michael kors. >> first of all, john, give simon the address of one of the discount stores, he needs a new suit. [ laughter ] secondly, the thing i'd say is the price tag has come down. it's still to me a door story. i like it. i am worried about the core, though, given the apparel. >> tell us who you think won the debate. use #bull or #bear.
we'll give you the results at the end of the show. hard to believe there are only 48 days left until christmas. if the recent numbers are any indication, the retailers will be sweating it out big time. they're here to break down the stocks to watch or avoid. the new co-heads of the consumer group, michael benetty, michael lassar. mr. benett imt, you got the tougher job, clearly with your coverage universe, mostly apparel name, which doesn't seem to be building up that well toward the holidays. how good will it be in. >> the mall traffic has sounded fairly sluggish. you're right. so far, michael seems to cover with the consumers, and you have the lulus and the michael kors,s that are a must-have. but there's not really a clear must-have product. there's been sluggish traffic and some reason to have cautious expectations into the holiday. >> within your universe, what would you be a buyer of, and
what group would you avoid? >> so we think the -- we think that the mall retailers like the department stores that we cover will be a little more challenge to drive traffic into the stores this year. i do still like the athletic sector and that's found off-mall. you'll find good product from nike, underarmour, and we think that they've got it better call for the consumer. >> michael, you have nike, vf corp. among the top picks, and a couple of the home-improvement retailers of home depot and lowe's. you have to be thinking about housing. what would you say are the jumpouts in your universe? >> from a -- >> michael lassar covers the hard lines. >> from a lard line -- >> oh, yeah, michael lassar, i knew i could get confused with the michaels. >> he's the better looking one. >> we just came off talking about michael kors. >> that's right. it's a popular name.
from a hardline retail perspective, we like the housing-related names, and we think that will be an area of investment for the consumer. we think home depot looks attractive between now and year end. it's been an underperformer as of late. they'll have an analyst meeting. and this is about finding earnings momentum, and we think earnings momentum continues to be with home depot. another name we like is a small kind of undercover name called 5 below, a dollar store for teens and preteens. they have very good momentum, a lot of square footage growth ahead of them, and they also are playing well into this rainbow loon craze that's really taken over the younger set right now. and we see this stock going much higher over time. >> all right. guys, thanks to you both. congratulations on -- >> thank you. >> -- on the space over there, the space so big, they need two of you to cover. michael benetti, michael lassar.
>> what are your top consumer picks with 48 days to go until christmas? >> jcpenney on the short side. >> are you still leaning on that? >> i'm still short it. >> throwing up the chart by the way? jcpenney is under 7 bucks from what i understand. let's confirm that. at least it initially was. there it is. $6.99, right at 7 bucks. i think we're talking at more than 20 years, i believe, since the last time the stock has been anywhere close to the level that you just saw it trading on your screen there. >> so for everything that's tough, that they talked about the mall traffic, that's jcpenney. that's why it should weaken. in terms of longside, look, i like macy's. i've been wrong on the stock. i think it's compellingly cheap, and the surprise will be that it will be a good christmas, it will be good consumer traffic, and i think that's -- >> weiss, he was saying that mall traffic is getting slower. the macy's of the world are going to get killed. >> i think that's where the surprise will be. we'll see what happens. >> are there other names -- look --
>> the home space, i like -- >> -- the coverage universe, under armour, nike. i know you like both of the names. >> nike has had a pullback. >> phenomenal story. >> i don't know how much more is to the upside. i look at lowe's and home depot, the housing plays, buys on those are targets 5%, 10% above that. >> i think you sell those names. >> now? >> yes. i think housing is done in terms of the big lift we're getting, in that they will start selling them. the risk-reward, nothing wrong with the companies, just the risk-reward, at those valuations, too high. >> i would do the opposite. completely go long with penney. >> thank you for confirming. >> you'd go long jcpenney. >> let me clear that up. as a short-term trader, i think you'll get a pop in the stock in the short term. >> it's reaching bottom every day. >> it has to hit bottom before it goes up, and i think the bottom is there. [ laughter ]
>> you stick with that one. >> yeah. you stick with that story. [ laughter ] >> i'll stay with my bottom. >> that's worth quoting. a quick note before we break out of the segment, the housing story, right? if you do have a new paradigm, if you will, on rate, right, being reset, and now you have lower rates perhaps than we would have thought, even a month ago, that's good for housing? >> it is good for housing. but you have to bet that they didn't satiate that demand before. rates have actually come up meaningfully from the bottom. maybe you see a spurt. but the traffic's down. we're seeing the homebuilders having a tough time each quarter. where this was the prior quarter in terms of reporting the rates. so i think the risk-reward is not attractive yet. next, it's tough to sell the winners and buy the losers, we know that, but with 20% of the s&p hitting new one-year highs, today, is it now the time to take profits on the winning stocks? our traders will unveil which ones should be sold today. that and much more when we come back from post nine.
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in mobile, and who is winning in the mobile monetization race? and want to negotiate a better salary? who doesn't? five-time nobel prize, world-class negotiator, bill richardson, has some advice for you. in the meantime, back to scott and the "halftime" team. >> all right. see you at the top of the hour. stocks soaring to 52-week highs, including starbucks, tak these names? take the bioteches first, down the list here, i know you like the bioteches. the stocks have had tremendous runs. can you do anything here but take some profits? >> yeah. you can continue to own pete's favorite amgen because that's a big bio pharma that has great upside i believe, it continues to work. >> celgen. >> it's still one of my biggest positions. i would love to buy more if it weren't so big. it's compelling in evaluation base.
i wouldn't own the small bioteches just because they're just fraught with risk. we've seen what can happen it to them. get dismated. >> how about whole foods? >> i love whole foods. i love it three times apparently. >> very bullish. >> nof tlop hit a new high today, a defensive contractor, sluggish growth with the sequestration going on, i think it's going to be in trouble. hit a new high, i would be selling that stock. >> whole foods is a perfect one because there's nothing wrong with whole foods. i like what they're doing, judge. >> i'm not -- >> no, anything on the list or anything i named no suggestion whatsoever there's anything wrong with the fundamental story. >> i totally gri. >> just a fact of as the tide has risen here and the stocks are here, you know, time to do something. >> some of them have gotten to this level here. i look at that name and starbucks, great examples of sometimes you got to do things that are little painful. today i'm taking off my starbucks position, first time. i want to see a pullback. nothing wrong with starbucks either. they have a great story behind it but they are going to pull
back and i want to buy it. >> i would sell amazon. i think it's a great company, no competition, but that valuation just can't come to grips with. i don't know when they're going to make money next and not going to. nothing against the ceo. i don't see any evaluation basis. >> from financial to it tech to the minors, your requests covered as we head to the twitter sphere, trading your tweets when we come back tos post number 9.
all right. welcome back. that is how the picture looks on wall street. the s&p 500, be sitting above its record high. major averages are in the green. hard to imagine it was less than a week ago we were talking about the markets possibly falling apart if they couldn't reach a deal in d.c. certainly all that has now changed. got a deal. and you have a big, big market. >> earnings reports the stock up more than $100 on a single day. go back to the dotcom boom of the '90s, 1999 seeing gains like this in a single session from a single stock. technology what we're talking about then and now. not so fast, simon baker.
our traders are quick but they're not always right. in august simon made a bearish call on letter x, u.s. steele, let's listen. >> just on the output coming out of china, it will be sitting there a while at 17. >> well, that stock is up only 38%. >> that's the last time i'm going to get a stock pick idea from weiss on the show. fundamentally this stock is in trouble. listen, last quarter, earnings were down 187%. this quarter they're down 238%. if you told me the company stock was up 30% i would still take the bet. if i'm up 30% in the stock i would be running and i wouldn't be putting it into weiss' idea but certainly it was a bad call. >> usually your jokes are a little suspect. that one actually hit the mark. congratulations on that. >> thank you. >> we'll take a quick break and do final trades and let you know who won the debate as well and
we'll continue to talk about this wild market that we have been watching for the better part of the last week. hoping for a deal in d.c. getting it. the market rising substantially since then. you've got nearly a hundred s&p points since early last week when we had paul richards sitting here on the desk talking about when this market could be a buy, what would happen if he got a deal. 1741. s&p has never been higher. back after this. ♪
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>> american airlines in great numbers. >> simon baker. >> marathon petroleum. >> doc. >> caterpillar, like the call buying. >> three stocks, we've been talk about the markets at these record highs, google, chipotle and morgan stanley. that does it for us. have a great weekend. follow me on twitter. "power" starts now. >> "halftime" is over. the second half of your trading day gyps now. >> record-breaker, s&p 500 all-time highs again today. how should you play it? advice for you throughout the hour. another record breaker here. google, the stock passes $1,000 a share. how this giant makes money and what its problems will be down the line. after two record breakers, plain old broken. more glitches and problems with obama care. did the gop miss the boat. instead of talking the costs, should they have pointed to the glitches? sue is out and tyler at the nyse. >> all right. thank you very much. the