tv Fast Money Halftime Report CNBC November 15, 2013 12:00pm-1:01pm EST
and greg tweeting -- this offer will self-destruct in three, two, one, as will snapchat's user base, should have accepted. i think it's hard for people to think about turning down a couple billion dollars, but if jim cramer is right, maybe it will be $10 billion. now, time for "the half" and scott. #sell. that's what one analyst said to do with twitter. we'll hear from him live. it's our call of the day. whale watching. what big names are the biggest investors buying and selling, and should you jump in the water with them? we do begin with stocks, which are on track now for a sixth straight week of gains. little now standing in the way of dow 16,000, certainly not the fed nominee who did nothing to upset the bulls yesterday. and one of wall street's top dogs is upping his target for the end of the year. you'll hear from him in a moment. but first, the question to the traders -- is a global rally over the next six weeks now inevitable, and
how should you play it? it is "halftime," so let's play the action. josh brown, that question to you. is it inevitable over the next six weeks? >> wow. nothing's inevitable -- >> look at what's happening, though. japan, china. >> yeah. >> yellen. our markets. >> scott, i've been bullish all year. obviously, some of the major things to keep an eye on were things that held up, market bredth and internals, and another thing was trend. we've spend 52 weeks as of today above the 200-day moving average, you never had a hint of a reason to be bailing out and thinking there's a trend reversal. that being said, we're now up six straight weeks. the odds do not favor seven straight weeks. in fact, a 5% probability that we make it an even seven. people should catch their breath and not feel as though they need to allocate every dollar they have into the market just because we have the inevitable feeling. quite frankly, we've only been up seven times in a row three times in the last ten years.
it just doesn't happen all that often, so calm down, you'll have your chance. >> i don't know, pete, the s&p is up almost 6% over the past six weeks, and now we're on this big round number watch. >> right. >> s&p 1,800. dow 16,000, and nasdaq 4,000, keeping an eye on, as well. >> in my mind, those things will happen. you used the word inevitable, and i think you're right. it is. when you look at the markets, it's not suddenly i jumped in. we finally get the financials participating. we talked on monday about bank of america. 185,000 calls of the 230,000 total were bought for the most part bought in bank of america. they were the calls. the following day, you had some of the industrials, ge. then you even had some of the housing-related with yellen coming up with lowe's, those have moved to the upside. the housing builders are moving to the upside. people feel comfortable and have a better knowledge of where the fed is going. i look at the volatility, scott. trading near 12, near all-time lows. when you look at that, or at least multiyear lows, when you
look at that, it's a great opportunity for those that want to be in the market with the stocks. they can buy protection. you want to be with options, some of the best trading i've seen in multiple years. >> how about the idea of peer pressure driving things higher, anthony? individual investors see the headlines, hear us talk about the big, round numbers, the new records almost daily. hedge funds chasing the rally. at some point, is everybody going to come to the party? >> yeah, listen, a lot of window dressing, a lot of pressure on performance, particularly by year end. and so, those are things that will drive up the market. and i've been bullish, as well, because of the liquidity. but i do believe that right now there will be some rotation, scott, away from the growth in momentum names and towards some of the defensive names. look at the tobacco companies. take loral, in fact, the fundamentals are quite good. it's not surprising the market is where it s i do think you'll see a rotation towards the end of the year as people get
defensive. >> simon, where's the money going to be made over the next six weeks? if we have this global run into the end of the year, you saw japan was up big. >> china. >> china is up big. >> i don't think it's a global run. i think the higher beta names will be. we see the emerging markets crack a little bit, so cisco's earnings, the ecb cut the rates over there, the dollar getting stronger. i'm a little more concerned about the multinationals like ge and honeywell, so trimming those and going into the names like yelp, linkedin. talking about the hedge funds wanting to get more beta, i think the names will work from now until year end. stay away from retail, i think confidence has been hurt. but you have to add beta on the portfolio, and stay away from the international names. >> let's get to the man who bumped his price target up for the s&p 500 for year's end. he's tom lee, jpmorgan's chief investment strategist, live in new york city. tom, welcome back. >> yeah, thanks for having me. >> why the 50-point bump? >> well, you know, we're only middle -- in the middle of the fourth quarter.
you know, it's been a good six weeks. the conditions that would supporting a rise in the first six weeks are in place at year end, and we know investors usually position for the year end anyway, so we don't see the market stalling here. >> coincidence it comes after the day after janet yellen was on the hill and seems to not have changed the gps on the fed's roadmap? >> it was actually supportive, because, you know, one of the three reasons we are bullish, is, one, we think there's economic momentum. but second, it's an accommodative fed that won't negatively surprise us. and the third is relative value. yes, it's very supportive. >> tom, it's josh brown. i saw in your noteds that the three sectors that you favor heading into 2014 -- materials, financials, and technology -- you note that they traded a discount to the s&p's multiple. but if you ask anyone about technology, very few people would argue that it's cheap. could you speak to, you know, the action we've seen in the nasdaq this year, for example,
the piling in to speculative tech names? can we still call that group cheap on the whole? >> yeah, it's a fair question. i mean, if you take any sector, there's been some bifurcation, right, because the things that have visible growth, the secular growth, have seen their multiples explode. and those are hard stocks to want to buy and put fresh money into. but when you look at the rest of tech -- and i'd argue large-cap tech is almost as a category falls into this -- you're getting double-digit free cash yield, top-line growth, 6%, and you're paying, you know, a 12, 13, sometimes a 9 p/e for them. i think those are real candidates for re-rate next year, plus you have the earnings kicker if global growth picks up. >> but, tom, you don't think that cisco's blowup is indicative of something more sinister to come ahead in tech? it has been in the past. >> well, i mean, i think that's -- you know, that and
several other companies this quarter really did disappoint within tech. i think it's highlighting the current state, you know, that there is questions about capacity and sort of secular questions around cloud versus legacy technology. but then again, i think valuation still plays a role, and i think what -- a new, fresh set of eyes going to look at this group, they'll say, you know what, i think i'll get paid to wait, like i got paid to buy pharma three years ago. >> all right, tom, thank you very much. >> thanks. >> tom upping the price target on the s&p to 1,825. we're following a couple of big calls in tech. plus, stifle initiating with buy ratings with yelp and link pd in, and twitter initiated with a sale at s&p capital iq. we do start with jordan row hand. welcome. good to have you on. >> thanks for having me. >> two different calls but they seem to play in the same hands, and that's mobile, right? >> that's right. if you think about what makes really good internet companies
these days, a larger market, monetization in early a stages and consumer lock-in. mobile really locks consumers in. you have to ask yourself, how many apps are you really going to have on your phone? once you have linkedin, a professional network you're probably pretty well vested in, will you put anything else? once you have yelp for local information and directory, is there a better place to look for a restaurant or anything else? mobile really is the glue that locks -- that binds all of the social content platforms. >> yeah. i mean, look, there's some that looks at the price gains the stocks have had this year and wonder if it's too late at this point to go in wholehearted, right? >> completely understand that, and, in fact, that's the hardest thing to get over. when you look at these two companies in particular, linkedin and yelp, the monetization is in such early stages. linkedin is going after a total addressable market of 66 billion. yelp is going after a
$24 billion global traditional yellow page/classified business. remember those big businesses? they don't largely exist in the same form anymore. and there isn't a second-best brand name in local beyond yelp. >> you mentioned in terms of linkedin, and we'll move on after that, but they've been able to monetize mobile better than facebook. >> yeah, linkedin, if you think about it, they're monetizing the network, whether it comes on desktop or mobile, it doesn't matter. they've served two major constituencies, recruiters looking to reach out and hire on behalf of corporations, and increasingly, they're searching -- they're really serving the market for salespeople, b-to-b salespeople everywhere, looking to find the right decision makers within enterprise. those are huge markets -- they're platform agnostics, so they monetize mobile easier, something that make it is easier for the consumer to interact with the platforms. >> jordan, thanks.
we appreciate it. >> thank you so much. >> jordan rohan. let's trade them. >> well, link i like to some degree, because i see where they make money, but yelp, i look at this name, the fact they don't make money yet, i don't know when they'll start making it, and when they do, what's the p/e level of yelp? this is one of the names way up in the stratosphere with plenty of room to the downside. i would stay away. >> i totally agree with you. 22 times sales, 330 times next year's earnings estimates, and i don't see the barriers of entry. and the price action, on a day like today, on a call, it should be up five sticks. it's barely up. and you have the downtrend from the blowoff top in the 80s. >> they had 47.3 million reviews in q3. the big concern about that is deacceleration. it was up 80% year on year. the story has a long way to go. >> roger mack thcnamee thinks s
well. >> and i don't think it's all that special and different. >> jordan may be right in the short term on some of the names because of the momentum. but one of the things he is getting wrong, if you look at the combined age of this desk, it's over 200 years, and he's probably -- >> wait a minute. >> -- he's probably right -- >> hey, weiss isn't here. >> only keeping a few apps on. but the kids, our children, they'll line up on different apps, and these yelps and so forth are going to change again in ways that we never expected. look at zigatz versus yelp. so the 200-year-old crowd, i get it. but that's not the crowd going after the names from a consumer point of view. >> let's talk about more names in the top three trades. first up, nordstrom, topping third quarter earnings estimates, but profits falling about 6% over the past year. bakes, you're up. >> yeah, the high-end retailers have done well. nordstrom has done well in this particular space -- in this particular space, and macy's reporting good earnings, but, look, stay away from this space.
the retail space in general is not good area. >> but maybe it's in for a surprise. didn't macy's open your eyes a little bit, i bet, to what you thought may be a head for the holidays? >> i don't think christmas is in the bag at all. stay away from the names. >> electronic arts is among the worst performers. pete? >> well, this name was $17 back in may and got up to $28. and now, here, pulling back a little bit. why it's pulling back likely today, you see insiders selling, and leon cooperman, taken his entire position off. it's had a great run. i think can you wait on this and buy it much cheaper. >> and solar rooftop projects. >> yeah, this is securitization of long-term contracts for both commercial and residential panel installations, and what this speaks to is the maturation of the industry, the intuition instugsalization of the solar.
and the yield is under 5%. so clearly, people really feel good about the prospects for solar. i prefer tam, the etf, to owning it individually. up next, whale watching. surprising third quarter moves from the big guys. but are these plays right for you? we'll find out next. plus, the hottest hedge fund trade of the year. then, following a slew of neutral ratings on twitter, the stock is down today after one analyst hit it with a sell. s&p's scott kessler is here with what's behind the bearish call. that and much more is ahead on "the half." [ bagpipes and drums playing over ] [ music transitions to rock ]
welcome back. it's whale-watching time as the world's biggest hedge fund buyers reveal some of their moves. dom is here to break it down. >> let's take you into the aquarium where we're looking for the whales. the first two whales we got are barry rosenstein and david tepper at appaloosa, because they're both getting involved in jcpenney. you can see jana taking a 5 million share take, and appaloosa almost 750,000, in terms of shares in jcpenney. another one we're looking at is fedex. that's a big one, because you have dan loeb at third point, he took a 2 million stake, we know, in that company. and perry capital, perry boosts
his position to 2.4 million shares, a big move in terms of fedex. our next whale trade, freeport, an oil and mining, copper and gold company, david tepper's appaloosa boosted his stake up to about 1.8 million shares. leon cooperman takes 2.8 million share in freepark, and we'll finish off with the last particular one, bruce berkowitz at fair home, he wants to buy the insurance, the mortgage bond insurance business of fannie mae, freddie mac. he wants to do it. and also, big ackman of pershing square, take as 10% stake in the common shares of both fannie mae and freddie mac. a lot of whales getting involved in a lot of big-name stocks. scott? >> these are, what, as of the end of september? >> these are september 30, yes, on a 45-day lag, but it gives us an idea of some of the themes. >> i bring that up, pete, because it would be seemingly well timed on the jcpenney trade. >> absolutely. >> for tepper and jana, barry
rosenstein. the stock had started that rise maybe right about then. >> right. right about that time. and we talked about some of monstrous positions looking for downside. they actually were totally rewarded to the downside based upon how low the stock actually got. i can understand why guys want to dip in jcpenney, because they think they're buying the bottom. i think a lot of the time, when you're trying to find the bottom and reach for a bottom, you get something you don't always want. i think that's what they're getting this time around. can you do much better in macy's, in my opinion. >> simon, i'm struck in the context of, what's so attractive for loeb, paulson, and the soros funds? >> yeah, i said monday on the show, i think you'll see other hedge fund managers stake the big stake, and everybody talks about u.p.s. being the better buy. but they already announced a restructuring of 1.6 billion over the next 10 years, announced 10% buyback on the float, which is a nice floor going forward. and still a great way to play a recovery in the u.s. economy, and also ecommerce, so they've
got the names in there. i think they'll be friendly, and great start going forward. >> i wonder if freeport is a play on the global economy in some respects? >> you know i agree with them. this is one of the better acting names in the materials space. broke out in august, but it's still cheap, even though it's gone up a ton, it's been an absolute wildebeest. this is still an 11 multiple. that's a 40% discount to the s&p multiple. in the meantime, you're getting paid 3% on the yield, and as global growth resumes and the cycle kicks into a higher gear than what it is now, these are the types of stocks that move up the most violently, so i like it here in the 30s. >> anthony, fannie and freddie popular among the hedge fund, and now we're learning, not only berkowitz, but ackman with the common. >> it's an exciting story. what the guys are looking at is the old fannie and freddie actually performed quite well before the crisis and before people were forced into the subprime mortgages. and so, if we go back to a more normalized era, these companies will make money.
20 years ago, warren buffett held it, wrote about it fansfully in his annual report, and that's what these guys are seeing now. there is political risk here. >> this is also ackman, in some respects, getting into his wheelhouse, right? real estate has been that for him, general growth properties, need i say anything more than ggp? ? mbia, another huge winner, too. >> yeah, i suspect they know something politically, where perhaps they will keep the agencies in place longer than people expect, despite the rhetoric you're hearing in washington. >> all right. >> an interesting trade. >> yeah, certainly. and so is japan, continues to be a hedge fund fave, with the nikkei headed for the biggest gain since 1972. will one of the best trades of 2013 work next year? paul richards is head at fsx at ubs. is the trade going to continue to work? >> definitely. it's about to go into a whole new leg, actually. it finally got through parity at 100. that's really important to stock watchers, because the correlation to the nikkei is very real.
>> why do you call it a perfect storm for dollar-yen? >> because, for the dollar-yen to go higher, the u.s. dollar to go higher and yen to weaken. you need a dichotomy between the two central banks. i think we could see ms. yellen's first meeting in january represent a start of tapering, very small, maybe 10 billion. it will be contingent on three good payroll numbers, so if we get a good one on december 6th, the market will start tapering for january, but not december. at the same time, one week before the january meeting of the fed, we have the boj meeting, and they're running out of time to get 2% inflation. >> what was the big takeaway from yellen on the hill, and what it means for the stock market between now and the end of the year, and for that matter, the markets globally. >> i think the market was expecting more than we got. we don't know this person. she's clearly very, very smart and worthy of the role. it was more of what we want. and that's more of chairman bernanke. but i also think they're much closer to tapering than the market was giving credit for. >> where are you on euro-dollar,
right? you made a good call on the euro, i believe, at 1.38, you said it was a sell. where do we go from here? >> if the fed will tighten -- or taper, equals tighten -- >> there's a difference, paul. >> apparently, there is a difference, but we'll get there. i think that the euro will go lower. it will grind down, and the ecb won't have any problems with that at all. very good for the economic recovery. >> we'll see what happens. have a good weekend. >> you, too. >> see you on the other side. shares of cisco having a tough week after delivering disappointing earnings, but we still found a bull, believe it or not. pete and josh will face off on cisco after the break. then, it is the biggest year for ipos since '07. with the latest debut bringing the total to 201. but how do you cut through the crowd and find the best trades? that and much more is what we'll do on "the half."
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cisco is coming off the worst day in more than two years after delivering what our own jim cramer called the worst quarter for any dow component. but does the plunge present a buying opportunity? pete najarian is the bull, josh brown is the bear. 1:30 on the clock. pete, make a case, and it's a tough case to make. >> it is. when you look at what they delivered, jim cramer is right, one of the worst reports i've seen. when you look through the layers and peel back the onion, it's what they've been doing for a while, which is serial disappointing, and part of it is on the upper management side. they may need a change, and maybe that's something that looks like microsoft. >> wait a minute, are you the bull? >> in the meantime, however, they have the share repurchase, 15 billion just added to the 82 billion. the valuation is phenomenal now that it's been pounded town to multiyear levels where it is presently, and you look at the cash they generate quarter after quarter, you can see why there's reason to want to look at this company, i like this company. and one last thing.
the nsa issues are something in the past. i don't think that's going to continue. that'll help them in the emerging markets, where they had the biggest weakness. the u.s., they were fine. it was the emerging markets that killed them. >> let me take your points one by one. as far as free cash flow, last quarter they again -- this time last year they generated 4 billion. this time, it's more like 2.6. as far as the share buyback, let me explain what this company really is. they are a machine that issues stock options to executives and then mafbs them with share repurchases. the float never shrinks. the company has spent 12 years generating not a
penny in shareholder value. it is probably the worst managed of the large-cap techs, even worse than stocks like intel, which have done nothing. and i've got to be honest with you, whatever they're saying about government coming back and some point, asia coming back, they are getting annihilated by the competition. juniper said they have no weakness whatsoever. [ buzzer ] what cisco is saying, it's company-specific. this would be like the last -- >> i don't disagree with you,
it's not getting fixed this quarter. i think it's a change at the top. >> i'll buy it on a change at the top, but not until. >> -- every one of the same arguments with microsoft, and suddenly, all of a sudden, when ballmer is no longer running the show, look at how the stock has performed. it's a good company. cisco is a good company. >> who made the more compelling argument, simon baker? >> i have to go with pete. this reminds me a lot of oracle, everyone piled on and said sell. but longer term, a good buy. i have to go with pete on this one. >> really? anthony, you want to weigh in? >> well,
it's like partying like it's 1995. it's an older business model, but the fundamentals are there. and at some point, they'll unleash the value. >> the fundamentals are terrible, and the difference between this and oracle, simon, is oracle was able to grow. >> -- three on one right now, but you feel like you're -- [ overlapping speakers ] >> i don't really care. i'm not short the stock. you could buy almost any other tech name and have a better
return. >> josh, the nice thing, the guidance is set so low, any beat, the stock goes up. >> and yet they continue to disappoint just about every quarter they report. it's marvelous. i've never seen anything quite like it. >> we heard so many times from the guys who fought against microsoft, and look at the stock in the performance this year, cisco is in the position, where they are, to go up, not down. >> i'd love to hear what you think about the debate. tweet us @cnbcfastmoney, and use #bull or #bear, and we'll give you the results at the end of the show. > up next on "the half," we'll look at the trading floor. you're looking, by the way, at the house floor, where they're preparing to vote on the republican proposal to allow people to keep their health coverage through next year. john harwood is going to update us on the vote. and one analyst slapping twitter with a sell. he will join us after the break to say what's behind the bearish
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the cmi for a triple play. first up, chris at the cme. what's going on there? >> right now, not much. you know, if it wasn't happy hour in about four hours, i think a lot of the guy wuss have their pillows out. everybody is drained from the last night, overnight trade. the nikkei, up again, huge, 7.7%. on the week. that's where the story is. asia, despite yellen being dovish, everyone thought that the dollar would actually weaken. it actually gained strength against the yen, and carrying the overseas markets, and we're a slow grind higher. no one is hitting the big s&p pay right now. >> tom riley at the nymx, the longest losing streak for crude in 15 years. >> it should be lower than it is here now. we've got a big sell-off yesterday and rallied off the lows about $2. i mean, i think we should be getting down to the $90 level and through that. every time it gets through that, it rallies to the mid-90s. no downside here. >> joe grecco at the new york
stock exchange. what are you watching? >> two takeaways, obviously, in the energy space, interest rolling back into the refiners as trent widens out, and the activists are back at it, mining for diamonds in the rough. pitney-bowes exposed yesterday as an activist target, and that seems to be the theme, and it will probably carry into next year to outpace the market-federally. >> all right. good to talk to you. thank you. let's talk about another stock, and that's twitter. it's up almost 70% from the $26 share price, causing one analyst to wave the red flag on that stock. the s&p capital iq's scott kessler joins us with his big call. welcome, good to have you on the show. >> thanks a lot, scott. >> why the sell today in. >> you know, honestly, when we were trying to summarize and in just a couple of points, it was difficult. basically what i would say, is number one, we don't know the
growth profile is as strong and unassailable as some might have you believe. second, we see the social media landscape ever-changing and fraught with competition. and then, third, and you probably know this as well as anyone, the valuation, calling it stretched is probably an understatement. it's trading at two to three times the price to sales of multiple of facebook, and that's a richly valued stock. >> i'll give you the valuation idea, because everybody is talking about the stock being too expensive for where it currently trades. but the unassailable, the competition, who does what twitter does? >> right. i think that's fair to say, who does exactly what they do? but let's look at a couple of metrics that i think are important and are recent, right? so look at, for example, timeline views per user actually declined sequentially in the third quarter. why? we're not really sure, but that's not really something that the company is championing as an
indication of sustained growth. and then you look at the license data business. that actually declined, i think, 17% in the third quarter. the advertising business, we see a lot of opportunities. but they have to develop and deploy new products to monetize effectively, and we're not so confident they'll be able to do that without some execution challenges. >> well, they are growing the mobile ad revenue significantly, right? i mean, that's sort of undeniable. >> it is undeniable. but what we're saying, though, is the people that look at twitter as the singular best growth idea within the internet space and the social media segment might be right now. but coming back in a year, we're not so sure about that. they have less than 10% global penetration. the company talks about that as an opportunity. we ask why, we think one of the reasons is the fact that people simply don't understand twitter as well and don't know how to use it as well as the other social networks that might be more appealing over the short and long term. >> scott, be well, see you soon.
>> all right, scott. options contracts start trading today on twitter. john najarian is live up in chicago with that. doc, good to talk to you. >> great to be with you, scott. thank you. >> what are we expecting? >> we had the options listed. they're listing weeklies, which have been very actively traded, as you would expect. the offerings being 80 million shares versus 460 million for facebook, for instance, we're not seeing the same sort of volumes, nor would you expect that really. about 30,000 options have traded on the call side, about the same amount on the put side in the first two and a half hours today, judge. but the volatility's lower than facebook was, as well as the fact that we're seeing just a lot of speculative trades on the downside, perhaps because of the capital iq downgrade, but also because people are trying to protect their holdings, they're buying puts two to one on the offer and selling calls. so that's kind of a setup,
judge, for something we call a collar, where they're buying a protective put, paying for it by the calls, and not a lot of upside calls speculation, at least on the first day of trading. >> doc, good stuff. have a good weekend. >> you, too, thank you, sir. >> we'll see you next week. >> all right. let's trade twitter, guys. what's the best way to do this? >>/just -- i just thought scott's commentary, he's clearly right on valuation and the fact there are some metrics that don't look rosy. you could have substituted the word twitter and put in facebook, and we were having an identical conversation almost 18 months ago. it's too early to say whether or not all of those minor negatives are going to manifest as big ones, so in the meantime, i don't think i'd make a trade based on the analysis. >> i don't think you could say that 18 months ago, or 6 months, or 12 months ago. the thing about facebook, could they monetize things in the mobile world? the answer was, yes. they answered that question. quarter after quarter after quarter zuckerberg has stood up and done that. the problem with twitter for me
now is does this translate internationally? that's one of the things brought up just now by the analyst. will they be able to do things internationally the way they have in the u.s. the answer is still a big question mark. that's why you're seeing more put buyers in the options. people playing for the downside. >> they have a heck of a lot of international users. >> more international users than u.s. users. >> but he's talking about what kind of revenues will they be able to generate? >> so here's the thing, facebook is generating about $1.70 per user per quarter and twitter is half of that. so, yes, you could look at that as, why aren't they as profitable as facebook per user, or you could say, hey, this company's half the age of facebook, and they haven't had the capital to make the investment necessary, which is the way i would take it. >> the stock is going higher, because what people are forgetting about twitter, this is a worldwide messaging system, and once they capitalize on the economics of that, this thing's going higher. it goes against every value principle. it's priced to over perfection,
but we're in a growth-and-momentum market, and this is a favorite in the early part of 2014. >> all right. speaking of momentum, how about the momentum around ipos? coming up, 201 initial public offerings debuting so far this year, making it the busiest since '07, but is there room for you to invest in this crowded space? that and much more is ahead on "the half." mer. the peruvian anchovy harvest suffers. it raises the price of fishmeal, cattle feed and beef. bny mellon turns insights like these into powerful investment strategies. for a university endowment. it funds a marine biologist... who studies the peruvian anchovy. invested in the world. bny mellon.
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coming up on "power lunch," the dow and s&p 500 at record highs once again. does it keep going higher, and if so, what moves it? higher-yielding dividend stocks, or is it going to be a high-growth story? the playstation 4 hits the stores. microsoft's latest xbox is out next week. for those that don't play the games all that often, what's the big difference between the two? and kentucky is one bright spot in the health care debate. kentucky's governor will join us and tell us how they are doing it right. all of that at 1:00 p.m. eastern time. scottie, back to you. >> all right, sue, thank you so much. daily deal site zulily is the latest company to go public, with the shares trading in the past hour. it brings 201, the best showing for new public offers since 2007. mike santoli is here to answer the question if there are more on the horizon. welcome. >> hey, scott. >> is this thing peaking, or what? are we at a top?
>> no, i don't think so. in terms of the ipo pipeline, it doesn't assume that way, assuming the market holds together. i assume this year where pent-up supply of deals, of companies that were ready, near-ready, kind of finally found a welcome home in the markets. to me, it's another example of, like i say, a bull market acting like a bull market. it doesn't mean all of the deals will be great. it doesn't mean they won't be kind of caught up in a little bit of the first-day nuttiness, but i'm net encouraged, for example, that cheg, the market just spit it out, so when you don't have a deal that's worth holding onto, the market's not going to take it for its own sake. >> what happens when demand wains? >> i don't think the problem will be demand waning. i think the first problem is if the market stays at these levels, it will be the first-day pop will be nutty enough, priced unattractively for anybody who doesn't get in. that's why a lot of the anticipated ipo rs, the tech leaders coming around, or
square, box, the king company, and it's just one of the things that the inner play works for a long time, i think, until you have demand going away. >> not to mention ali baba, that will be a monster sometime next year. >> yeah. >> we're a day and a week after the twitter ipo. >> yes. >> give us your read on how this thing has gone thus far. >> you know, my initial read is that, you know, they kind of pegged it pretty well. i think that the fact that the market is kind of kept it in this range, not too far from where it opened up on the first day, i think it's the same story, which is, you know, so many people are willing to make a long-term bet here simply because it's at a relatively early stage in this monetization process, and nobody really knows what the platform can become. at the same time, a lot of, i think, very healthy skepticism that, you know, looking at this, already giving it too much credit for growth down the road. so if you ask me, the market is kind of, you know, because it's been so strong, i guess, didn't have a chance to really flop,
but it's probably been a pretty successful deal on most of the fronts. >> yeah, mike, thanks. >> okay. >> mike santoli. unusual activity time, pete, it's time for you. >> keep an eye on the fxi, if you look at the tape, 3-to-1 calls, 140,000 contracts, 100,000-plus on the call side. december, the expiring on the 6th. also the monthly december 40 strike calls, extremely active, over 30,000-plus trading early in the trading session. it looks like people are starting to think there's more upside to come, despite this monstrous move today. >> it underscores what we talked about at the top of the show. it's the japan trade. it's the china trade. if there is a six-week sprint -- >> yeah. >> -- into the end of the year, rising tide may lift big boats like that. >> and too many of us, i think, have decided, okay, ibm's not doing all that great, and cisco isn't doing that great, so that's telling us about the international and the emerging worlds. it's not been read. if you look through the first part of the season, things have
been solid. >> anthony? >> well, i said last year with the regime change in china, they would surprise people on the upside with stimulus. that's happening. and i think china is going to be a continual gradual momentum to the upside, better than expected positive growth overall in asia. >> all right. coming up, hewlett-packard is one of the top five s&p performers this year, but someone on this desk told you to sell it. so has he changed his mind? >> no! >> we'll find out next. >> very sensitive. ♪
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welcome back. we're on nasdaq 4000 watch. let's go to the exchange with sheila. sheila, round-number watch all the way around. >> i know, round-number watch here at the nasdaq. we're less than 30 points away from nasdaq 4000. that's a level we haven't seen since september of 2000. a lot of excitement to see whether we can cross that key technical level. taking a look at the big movers, we have strength in biotech's. the biggest loser on the nasdaq is reagagregeneron. we have a mixed picture on netflix and green mountain coffee. back to you. >> if not this week, next week for sure. thanks. market flash now with don. what do you see >> how about an old world
company mob up over a percent. buffet disclosing he's taking a round a 40 million share stake in the company. when i tweeted this out, they said exxon is not an oil company any more, more of a natural gas company. so exxon certainly in the news today. back over to you. >> we love xom. >> buffet loves it but i liked it before that. those refiners still have so much more upside. when you look what's going on and desoro had a lot of activity. the energy space across -- all layers seems to be rising. >> definition of a defensive name, again i believe that this will be the rotation into the early part of '14. >> better names >> chevron is better. double the dividend, half the market cap. i think the stock can move much more quickly than exxon. they have a war chest of 20 billion in cash they can deploy
more effectively. >> xom can split themselves and then you have an incredible value. you can also look at the phillips 66, conoco. >> how do you feel about cisco? >> great. put it in your 401(k). >> not so fast. last month josh made a bearish call on hewlett-packard. >> it's a melting iceberg. the problem with the stock you can't trust them when they come out today and say earnings are little bit better. i don't trust what they are saying today. >> how does it feel to be "titanic"? stock is up 11%. >> i'm not backing away. they missed earnings shortly after i said that. i would sell the stock with three hands. no justification for the move higher. today they are telling retailers to stop selling the chrome book they are making because the batteries are blowing up.
>> far too many times, one hand he's got this, other hand he's got. three hands on this stock. >> you could own i want if you feel like it but it's been cheap for four years and they do almost everything wrong. better places to be. >> how do you really feel about it >> i'm not a fan. i got to tell you. look, you can buy great companies with great news where the shares price is working because fundamentally it makes sense. i prefer to do that. >> it's old tech. avoid it. you the viewers ask and we deliver. trades on four stocks that lit up our twitter feed. verafone much >> it continues to get pounded. it's fine at this levels. management had their issues. but starting to clean them elves up and there's far more upskid. >> intel.
>> i love this name because of its contribution to hewlett-packard. but what i really want to say despite the head wind in the pc space this is a name that you sock away. it has a low pe, tons of cash and an heir loom sort of name. i like it. i'm a bull. >> josh you would disagree >> i wouldn't actually. i've been wrong on intel. i thought it would drop below 20. i want hasn't. that 3% plus yield is keeping where it is. the street is giving them the benefit of the doubt. so i don't hate it. >> more than -- much more than the yield. there's so many different stocks out there. you can say i'll buy this for 3% yield or that one. there's some of them out there. when you look at the stock they have transitioned themselves inno bill. took them a long time to get going. now once they did they are very
kei competitive with qualcomm. >> i may disagree on defensive stocks. people are moving out of those names into higher beta names. >> josh, silver wheatton? >> i would buy this one. i've traded it before. i love their business model of streaming silver out of the gold mines and not having that cap x. it's a good company. this trade is for sale. nobody wants to be left with this gold and silver stuff on the books when the year ends and we brown have a global blow up. these stocks will get sold on every rally. >> pete i bet you have an opinion on silver wheaton. >> if simon is right and we do have a blow off top and start going to the south a name like this has an incredible amount of upside because of the streaming. they've done some investments.
now getting themselves more into the gold. they positioned themselves as well into gold far more than we once were. >> what about our final one, peabody. >> this is a disaster. down 24%. last four quarters, beat street consensus on good cost controls. a lot of mines are shut off. supply is limited. this is getting good set up for next year or good bounce back. >> we'll take a quick break, come back and do final trades and find out who you think won that debate on cisco. g to let t. ♪ like they helped millions of others. by listening. planning. working one on one. that's what ameriprise financial does. that's what they can do with you. that's how ameriprise puts more within reach.
opportunities aren't always obvious. sometimes they just drop in. cme group can help you navigate risks and capture opportunities. we enable you to reach global markets and drive forward with broader possibilities. cme group: how the world advances. >> we tallied the results. the people have spoken. josh brown the bear on cisco won the debate, i'm told in a landslide. >> wow. >> how about that. >> in landslide. >> more on josh brown. >> i'll say the name. >> give us a final trade.
>> i like hunter builders. >> pete? >> citigroup is going higher. >> i'm with pete. get long on wells fargo. . >> that does it for us. have a great weekend. we'll see you on the other side. power starts right now. >> what a way to end the week with another record breaker for the dow and the s&p. the dow is now up 143% from the 2009 bottom. the nasdaq not at a record but just 27 points from nasdaq's 4000. will we do it today? new documents are circulating that the white house had fair warning months in advance that healthercare.gov was simply not ready for action. we'll be talking about that in just a few moments. a brand