tv The Kudlow Report CNBC November 20, 2013 7:00pm-8:01pm EST
liking that williams-sonoma tonight. there's always a bull market somewhere. i promise to find it for you report." we're here live at 7:00 p.m., 4:00 p.m. pacific. breaking news from the white house. the national association of insurance commissioners has just told president obama that his fix for canceled health policies could result in higher premiums and gaps in coverage. this all comes as a new cbs poll puts his approval rating at an all time low at 37% and opposition to obama care, 61%.
good evening, everyone, i'm larry kudlow. this is "the kudlow report." insurance commissioners say his obama care champions are creating uncertainty. we need to explore what that means. republican congressman brad wen cher and strategy associates and avik roy, author of "how medicaid failed the core." , the insurance commissioners had problems with cancellation renewal. the back payment and payment mechanisms on the obama care website has yet to be ruled. two-week crunch period. does that mean well?
>> kathleen sebelius is the former president of national association of insurance commissioners. i keep -- you're not going to invite me to this program anymore because i keep asking the same question. who is advising this president when it comes to how the insurance markets work? i don't get these guys. >> join the crowd. i get that, too. no quarterback. brad, let me go to you, congressman. yesterday we had these revelations from mr. chow, from the hhs. he says 30 to 40% of the website is not brok is not built. specifically the back payments and the purchasing. my question is even if you got renewals, bob says you have to get it in by the first half of december, how are they going to work this through if you can't
pay for it and connect the website to the insurance company? that's the part i don't get. >> that's the big question, right? we can't turn back time and wish it was another day before this all started taking place. people are prepared for this for three years at least on the provider end and people in the insurance business that planned for this for three years and now it's falling oo part because it's not ready. this is an extremely difficult time. the number one diagnoses will be anxiety and stress. this is really a big problem. each day the dominos keep falling. they also see how the rules have changed by the president saying they changed. >> avik roy, i come back to you. something the insurance commissioner said in a published release, premiums are going to go up. now it sounded to me, i don't know, you have to give me the details, in other words, renewal premiums will go up or just
premiums in general are going up? both contradict the president. which is it avik. >> premiums are going up for those renewing their policies. 20 to 25% increases on the same plan that was supposed to be canceled but is going to be able to be continued. plus, on the exchanges premiums are going to have to go up. the rates aren't going to go up this year because the rates are set. if healthy people stay out of those exchanges, then if you have older and sicker people, premiums will go up there. let's not forget the rest of america, people who get employer sponsored coverage, they'll see increases of 10, 15, 20%. even if the president has somehow only 5% of americans are being affected by these policies, it's not true. >> by the way, we're going to get to the employer based issue later. there are big numbers. bob, let me go to you.
i'm still not sure i understand. let's say half the states, let's say half the states allow the renewals to go through, maybe more than half the states. i don't know what it is. they go onto the website. something we learned yesterday. this is what i don't get. i think you mentioned the 834, 824 exchange or something. there's no connection to the insurance company. if you can't pay for this stuff and you can't connect with the insurance companies, how do you get this done in the first two weeks of december leading to january 1st? that's the part i don't get. >> this is a whole different problem. the hhs transactions, we're talking about the enrollment in the insurance company which has been going on and people are signing up. this is a whole other dimension. what this is about is that once everybody gets signed up for january 1, the federal government hasn't built the part
of the system that transmits the federal government's portion of the premium to the insurance company. more than that, they haven't built the part that reconciles the insurance company thinks they have covered with the federal government. this is tantamount to starting up a bank on the street corner, taking people's money, giving them a checkbook to write checks but the bank not having done that hasn't figured out how to send out statements. when they were challenged, they said, it's not a big deal. we don't have to figure this out until january. it sounds like a fly by night operation. >> were you in this hearing with mr. chow, the unveiling of 30 to 40% number that hasn't been built. can anybody, can anybody complete the transaction, okay? you can do the application, you can do everything you have to do, but you can't get through the payment. if you can't pay, then i'm assuming the insurance company doesn't make it official.
you don't get your membership card, you can't bill your doctor, whatever. how is anybody going to get through this? this is the point i'm trying to figure out. >> the american people are handcuffed. they have nowhere to turn. they're supposed to do this, the government can't get it done. this is a sad time for america. our government has rolled out with so many warning signs that it wasn't ready. this makes it extremely difficult. we're assessing this every day and within our caucus there, we're trying to fix this, but the problems are mounting each and every day. >> how can you not in good faith, okay, forget politics, republicans versus democrats, last question on this, how can you not extend all these deadlines for the good of the people who want to renew their insurance or the other people who want to sign up? do you see what i'm saying?
in other words, how can you help ordinary individual men and women, whoever they are, this is not politics, when you see the okay stackl obstacles. somebody has to step in, congressman, and say, dash irn let's have a bipartisan bill to extend the bloody thing. >> that's exactly right. we tried that as you know. we are in a situation where we need a huge time-out and as i look forward, time goes by fast around here. the state of the union address will be interesting in january. >> politics does intervene. the administration launched this website on october 1st knowing that it wasn't going to work. we just learned from the house oversight committee, they disclosed some documents today, an e-mail chain, that showed that they knew they were going to have these problems with hangups, people not being able to log into the website days
before they launched it. they still launched it because they were so afraid of the criticisms they'd get if they had to eat crow and delay the website. this is crazy. >> they're eating a lot of crow. bob, i'll give you the last word. you're still saying the first half of december, unless there's any extensions and changes the first half of december is absolutely crucial. can you expand on that thought? >> everybody is geared up to be signed up for january 1st. all of these people that have gotten cancellations have to sign up for a new policy january 1. all of these people with pre-existing conditions and are signed up are anxious about all of this. have to be signed up by december 15th in order for the coverage to take effect january 1. if we don't have the ability to enroll people by really december 1 to december 15, a two-week period here, we could have hundreds of thousands if not millions of people come flooding
to this thing. we can debate if obama care will be popular or not. there are 5 million cancellations. then all of the people to sign up, if this isn't fixed, if it gets back to what avek said, if they set in place a domino effect and the dominos are still falling and the congressman can't stop it, the insurance companies can't stop it. this is a mess. >> the more we learn, the worse it is. please stick around because there is a new report from the white house council of economic advisors out today that says between 2010 and 2013, those years, health care costs rose at the lowest rate in a three-year period on record. the white house is saying it's because of obama care. if john joined us with the details of this debate. >> everybody knows the obama administration is being hammered for all the difficulties with
obama care and its rollout from the website to the dislocation of some people who are losing their plans so the white house tried to push back. there's a slowdown. there's a lot of debate whether it's going to slow down in economic activity. jason if you areman, he put out a report today. he took partial credit driving down those costs. here are some of the headline numbers growth slowdown. first of all, for the last three years health care spending per capita has risen only 1% in the last three years. it's persisted even after the economy has recovered. health care price inflation, the cost of health care services is
going up on a year-to-year basis according to the report only by 1% year over year. the benefits of that flow not just to american corporations and individuals but also to the government because according to the congressional budget office, the spending on medicare and medicaid by 2020 would be 10% less if this cost growth slowdown persists. now everybody is wait to go see whether in fact the economy grows morrow bustly. it will wipe out some of these. the white house relies on them for changes in reimbursement rates, hospital penalties to make sure they're providing care more efficiently. all sorts of reforms that could potentially slow health care costs over the long run. that's something the administration wants to point to. we'll see how long it lasts. >> many thanks. john howard, we appreciate it. back with our panel.
i want to get your quick take on what he just reported. there's a difference of opinion about the definitions. glen kesler said national health care expenditures have been growing just under 4% for the same time period. it may be a definitional issue. the question before the house, both of these numbers are slowdown numbers. the question before the house and i'll start with you, congressman, can obama care take credit for the 1.5% number or the slow down numbers. >> i've been practicing since last december and i saw a lot of changes in how we're doing things. you're always striving to be more efficient with your patients. they wanted more skin in the game. deduct i believes and co pays, they gave things more time to get better on their own before
coming to the doctor. what i saw firsthand, people had some part to play in the decision-making process would say, do i need that lna. i'm going to have to put out a lot of money for this. >> right. >> when people are more invested and it becomes efficient. whifr number you use, jason furman's news or the post. fewer people going with insurance or fewer people going to the doctor. what's your take on that relative to the white house says it's obama care. >> i've covered the area. it's economic and statistical
hucksterism. it's slowed down spending across the world. the second factor is what the congressman alluded to. there's been a dramatic high deduct i believe insurance. >> obama care hasn't gone into effect. the vast majority ghost into affect next year. they have no significant impact on health spending. >> bob, i'll give you the last word on this to date. obama care, recession, what's responsible for the health costs. >> the congressman and avik just gave you all the reasons. i can't add to those. there isn't a single health care economist out there liberal or who's not assassinating them.
most of us in obama care have the cadillac. i think they're a pie lot programming, i'm going to lose my respect for her. >> kesler. i've been working on kesler's tapes. he hasn't made a decision yesterday. he's not willing to say and give him a call and an e-mail. >> please, congressman and bob and elders. please hang around. a new round. we could be talking as much as 100 million cancellations of employer based qualities. so far i ain't hearing any economic freedom. i'm kudlow. we'll be right back. listen to this litany of
warnings about obama kier w weapon. would you advise to use this? yes or no? >> no answer at this time. >> same answer. >> same answer. >> yeah, i wouldn't use it. >> so it's a unanimous move? >> i would say it would have to be studied a lot more before i would agree with that. just by talking to a helmet. it grabbed the patient's record before we even picked him up. it found out the doctor we needed was at st. anne's. wiggle your toes. [ driver ] and it got his okay on treatment from miles away. it even pulled strings with the stoplights. my ambulance talks with smoke alarms and pilots and stadiums. but, of course, it's a good listener too.
the warnings have grown louder about what looks like a second wave of health insurance cancellations all due to obama care. this wave could be much more than the first wave. 100 billion employer plans could be in jeopardy. last night they said they don't see why thousands of corporations wouldn't keep their costs and sell their workers to the exchanges. we're back with our panelists. bob, the number from an aei study put it at 50 to 100
million. a lot of it focused on smaller businesses. a lot of it on larger companies like abbott because they don't want to pay the extra costs. help us on this. what do you see? >> yes. i think when they say 100 million, they're saying every worker's employee health plan is in some sort of jeopardy because of obama care. you can make that case. employers have a little bit of a wait and see attitude. i don't think we'll see any big moves. we are seeing changes. the smaller employer area is getting the most action. small employer, less than 50 workers, subject to the same mandate, pre-existing condition reforms as the individual market is. workers are coming in with the rate increases. some of those rate increases are
struggling. it has small employers wondering where they're going to be. >> right. they're going to walk away from it, that's what we're going to do. congressman, some of this has to do with the cadillac tax. some has to do with the premium tax because of all the mandates. the writeup on this suggests that even though the business mandate has been studied for a year, it's going to start, the pink slips are likely to start in october, next year, which is right before the election. what is your take on this? >> employers are going to make the plan, right? they're used to making plans. you are going to see people losing businesses. it will be a political kickball. what are you going to do for these people. enjoyed giving that benefit to their employees. so we're going to see the same
type of problems. you had alluded to real cuts but through the break, did you through the exchanges and trust is down so much. people are very anxious in every aspect of this. >> you see it in the polling data. avik, why don't at least the bigger employers do what i read weeks ago like walgreens is doing. they're giving a lump sum to their employees and put it in some kind of savings account or it's going sss. the private aeks changes, more options, is that what large corporations are going to do or is that a small drop in the bucket? >> what we're going to see, on the smaller employer then, people will move to part-time employment. you'll see substantial migration
to protect their costs cost certainty. you'll see a lot of mid size companies start to ensure. the large businesses are doing it through these private cases. one point i want to make, larry, in general it would be a good thing if people stopped getting it. it would be more market oriented and cheaper and as i understood the walgreen's thing. they lend down the information. lum p sunday but lsu closes down. why don't more large care. they would be out of the owe bombing ma care system. >> because i think one form will do that in one form or another.
they're offering their own private exchanges, if you will, where people are giving a defined prosecution and they produce what you've seen. it has the cadillac tax. in 2018 if your benefits cost more than the lawyer subject to 40% exsize account. they realize you're going to get that cadillac tax in four short years. when you start to pare back the benefits now, what's interesting about it, larry, to avoid it it's not enough to shift premiums for the worker. they have to get the overall costs for the plan down and you see higher deductibles. getting ready for the 2018 tax. >> they may get the pink slimts.
welcome back to "the kudlow report." i'm jackee deangelo. there's one thing president obama and paul ryan agree on. there won't be another government shutdown in january. governor ryan thinks they'll get another deal. the sequester would stay in place. president obama today handing out presidential medals of freedom, including two recipients, oprah winfrey. ernie banks, and the late astronaut, sally wry. president clinton received the medal even with his recent criticism of obama care. look at this, larry, people already lined up for black friday sales at best buy in ohio. they're camping out in style with generators, heaters. they're not looking to buy anything in particular, they like camping out being first on
line. i'm not sure that makes it better or worse, shopping with no purpose. >> a week ahead. >> very early. >> quite interesting. >> one quick thing on the paul ryan. they important he made these comments, he and senator patty murray who's a democrat. neither one of them want a shutdown. >> nice to see them working together to a certain extent. >> neither of them want a shutdown, i'll go that far, but the current law, the sequester, the automatic budget cut, stays in place and in fact drops down another $100 billion which suits me just fine. we're squeezing out the federal government and the deficit and i think it's good for the economy. thank you to jackie deangeles. you don't have to be a big chance with the banks.
all right. the ink is parl barely dry on jpmorgan's settlement. $4 billion for homeowners, another bailout they couldn't get through congress. 9 billion to various government organizations including fannie mae and freddie mac. now some of it will go to some departments and agencies. the fdic, state attorneys general. five or six of them. every one is a democrat. they get money. don't ask me why. i just want to say this. in my opinion, even though mistakes were made, this is basically targeting jpmorgan, number one, knocking it down a peg and number two, jamie dimon who was very critical of obama regulations, particularly the dodd frank bill for several years. i think we have not forgiven jamie dimon on that. i'm sure mistakes were made but you know what, a lot of this
mortgage-backed paper looked awfully good when housing was in a boom and it looked awfully bad when housing went bust. i don't think that's breaking the law. if there were infractions, tell us the metrics. to get this all across. get money but they couldn't get out of congress. give money to the attorneys general. organizers, community organizers are going to get money under the guise neighborhood works. they're going to get money to do what? i don't know. they're bleeding the banks because the banks have money and i think it's an injustice. i want to get some quick comments and a cnbc contributor, carol ross. what do you think, carol? i may be exaggerating.
no mistakes were made. i'm not saying that. i'm just saying that this smacks of a political plunder play and where this money is going. >> i think no good deed goes unpunished. the thing i have the biggest problem with, bear stearns, they weren't owned by jpmorgan at the time of the infringement. the fact that jpmorgan bailed out the companies and got smacked with a fine is absolutely ridiculous. there were problems that were revealed. not even getting the right kinds of decision. where is this money going to? is it going back to the investors, the ones that got hurt? no, it's going to the attorney general. >> community organizers, government agencies, housing
bailout. now they recover nicely. bailout money they could not get to congress. scheduleding, jpmorgan stock is holding up. is that fair? is that true? >> yes. it fell 11%. people were kerchtd about the legal overhang. they made these announcements, that's the number so far in total. ? a normal, in this reserve. >> the point is it won't impact earnings. it's an overhang removed. we can focus on fundamentals and 2013's cash deployment which is dividends and -- >> look, again, i'd like to
know, you know, you had this incredible laundry list of the finds and where the money went. community organizers are getting some of this money. i don't get that at all. fannie and freddie are getting some. what's the algorithm? if you do something wrong, you have to pay for it. i don't see the algorithm and with these numbers and that's why i think this was read trib bugs against jamie dimon. the person who gets hurt here is the average commitment. they lied and sawed that this appeared to be abiding by the rules. what this says is if you play by the rules in america, you're going to get hurt. i think that's the wrong message to send out. >> 13 billion, 9 billion went to
regulators. they should have gotten more in my opinion. >> no, they shouldn't have gotten a dime more. >> not the regulators. >> they have tried to have housing bailouts for years. it wasn't until the fed had housing recovering, they couldn't get that for more money so they have to go to jp morgan. >> you don't want it going to the mortgages? joe, sam, harry? >> a community organizer and it's all political conja. >> you don't want it to go to the regular looters. >> $11 billion has become
taxable. >> i'm not trying to change anything. i'm just bringing it to your attention. with no algorithms, this is a political shakedown if i've ever seen it. >> stay with us because we're going to talk about stock markets and we're going to talk about the fed minutes and where we're going. more on money just ahead with our two experts.
welcome back to "the kudlow report." the market splash. red market as stocks dropped on hints that the fed may begin tapering within the coming months. the dow dropping 66 points. the nasdaq down 10. the s&p 500 dropping. another decline for gold down $15 an ounce to settle at 12 poich point 58. >> many thanks. we appreciate it. let's go to our ace investors. let's talk for one second about these minutes that appeared to
drive stocks down for a while. i don't see any change. they're not telling you we're going to slow down the bond buying sometime and they're not going to raise the overnight fed fund rate probably in my lifetime. why would investors be so stupid. >> you always say it's really, really bad. i don't think the fed is going to stop. with what we're taking, you don't think this all is going to be taken out without falling. the wording the fed is coming, it's coming down the pike. >> if one fed person says something it shows up in the minutes. >> yes, sir. >> no, i bought. i bought. >> excellent. excellent. so i went to the market.
everyone went back. moving to mards in the ranging range. i have to see if the em perfect russ of the duds. >> nice. started out as a queen. i elevated her to emperous. >> the point is that we'll have these head winds on the market of the -- sometime in the quarter of next year. i don't think it's coming in december of nonfarm payroll. we haven't seen better data, larry. gdp. >> we'll talk about that in the next segment. they'll start to taper. i think the industries that will
benefit from this -- >> i want both of you to weigh in. where are you investing now? >> i'm looking at some contrarian phase. i like to look at things when everything goes one way, where can you make money the other way? smith and wesson has a huge short interest. i've been good identifying a short interest. i want to make a disclosure. if you think the market is going down, warren buffet -- if you look at exxon, it's done really well historically when the markets go down. it's a cash machine. there's investor interest. >> where are you investing?
you have the selloff, that's brilliant. terrific. absolutely terrific. again, we brought groups that went next year. >> where did you put the 2017? >> where do you position? >> financial. industrial imply better growth instul of calling it shovels. i'll see cheaper. that only goes two markets. >> you look at apple, red hath, adobe bewhich facebook which migrates to the headache. >> i just want to say one thing.
a very distinguished friend of mine from sug's. he's not -- scott granite says that there's no evidence that any of the qes affect long term interest rates. no evidence. he's got charts to prove it. for those who doubt that, pitch over to his website and you'll see the charts. thank you very much. that was very informative. cnbc regulators debate that next. something is going on. we'll check it out. americans take care of business.
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welcome back to "the kudlow report." i'm jackie deangelo. if the obama care rollout hasn't had enough press. the obama administration has egg on its face one more time. during a stop in florida last night to promote obama care quarterback. it crashed on as she watched a couple sign up for health insurance. chick this out. >> it's been a long time coming. >> yeah. , temporarily down.
it'll come back. >> it happens every day. >> larry, no doubt that the late night kmup ncommunity. gdp has been crawling back slowly. you know what, you've got a bunch of new economic indicators. it has me thinking there could be an upshift of retail growth. very strong last month. gold falling. i love that. are we going to get 3% growth or bether? we asked steve who is a chief u.s. economist and joe the head economist at deutsch chi back. we're also the well, there's not
been move going forward. it looks like kwul 4 gdp lp advised. they cited record back logs and very high ism. i think it continues this quarter. we have growth over 3, 3 1/2 so i am agreeing to this. steve, let me get your tax on that, the third quarter will be revised up. the re5789, you've had one nice quarter. it will result at home. i disagree with watching the ism as app indicator telling you what industrial production has to do. indus still have production is seeing what's actually happened?
>> john burns, i think he made this point. in a not, he wasn't foop dropper health. i just claysed sick like a dye from 3.p, that's triple a is it not? >> it obviously. it's pores flow. this is in addition to higher edge kite at this prices, house. >> steve, home sales went down today. they were very disappointing. there is a school of thought that says the prior interest rate hike is slowing that down. that may slow the economy down?
is that one of the view. is that one of the fundamentals. the retail sales for building materials is down for three consecutive months and a drag against that. minus almost 10% annually. i didn't see that. retail sales -- >> it seems now -- >> steve knows that the bhulding material here goes into that. at least he's hirer. eating, drinking, sporting. i saw a lot of nice discretionary spending games in an economy that looks healthy. i'll tell you what, the ism worked greater and telling us gdp looks to be three. i'm putting a lot of weight. >> furniture was up 1%. i got my stats courtesy of 2%,
and be apparel, why does leb and almost. the reality of the situation we have an economy that's grew. i ever night goss go through all the detauls. we don't have it time with us going, the disposable income amount may very well go into savings. the consumers are certainly uncertain. we're seeing the confidence problems. all of the problems with the obama care. these things are important. >> california, i'm running out of time. it's going up whether you're employer based insurance. you have a big tax height from
friem jum. >> we had a bigger increase than the quarter. 200,000 plus, larry, on jobs the last three months. that's impressive. zwr you're byte em prompt. thank you for your arms. that's it for "the kudlow report." thank you for watching. i'm larry kudlow. we will be back tomorrow night. staying active can ease arthritis symptoms. but if you have arthritis, this can be difficult. prescription celebrex can help relieve arthritis pain and improve daily physical function so moving is easier. because just one 200mg celebrex a day can provide 24 hour relief for many with arthritis pain. and it's not a narcotic. you and your doctor should balance the benefits with the risks. all prescription nsaids, like celebrex, ibuprofen, naproxen and meloxicam have the same cardiovascular warning.
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