tv Fast Money CNBC December 10, 2013 5:00pm-6:01pm EST
>> they have been on the hyped wire. remember, of course, this is an industry that really booms but also busts so put those kbes together. >> the energy boom in this country is not just about oil and fraccing. >> fast money starts right now. live from the nasdaq market site in new york city's time square, i'm melissa lee. we've got a tiger cub on set to give us his 2014 play book. find out why he thinks the coffee chain is losing momentum. twitter breaking out $50 a share rally for the second straight day. it's mur than double the ipo price. traders tonight are tim seymour, dan nathan, karen finerman and
guy aidami. the federal reserve will likely begin tapering next week. europe showing signs of strength. we're seening green in china. tim, it's really been a clean sweep. >> we have bmis. they have been expanding. anyone is expecting china to be a consumption story tomorrow. very good news. maybe in the next decade. not tomorrow. having said that, it gave a great boost. we have hit it here. that is exactly what you're seeing in the american ones.
that's reasonable. they're really growing and really different it and that's the difference. >> also facebook and groupon. strong performances today. >> to me it doesn't really speak to a heck of a lot of what's going on in china. >> why isn't it a consumer story? >> let's listen to the shanghai kpos sit. so me i think the investor base are american or u.s. based investor investors i think it feets to a risk. >> tim has been really vociferous in this. we talked about yahoo! since it was literally a $15 stock.
here it is today. it sort of is right in the context of what we're talking about. >> to me the interesting china play, look at the casino stocks. look at what they transformed themselves. they have three major probts now. although it trades 21, 22 times. >> dan, you're basically saying that the internet is not the way to play the consumer story. >> i think the other way is the clearest way to play. i think it's the cleanest way to play it. let's just use a company like yum.
all intents and purposes it's only up 10%. >> this is is a chinese cell phone maker. they are involved in ecommerce. and they are developing the android operating system. i don't think apple can do it. if you look at this, if you look at it, a south african company but owns 34%, they are putting more money into the chinese internet story. that is what i want to follow. >> karen? >> well, we have some plays that indirectly are definitely predicated somewhat on the global growth story. if we look at some of the tanker
names. which is a product tankers. those -- the more growth we see the better those are going to do. i want -- >> what about supply there? has that been the whole story? it's just ridiculous oversupply. >> it's a commodity product. if demand is rising. >> let's move on. tim mentioned this. apple will begin offering preorders on china mobile. bank of america out with a note saying the street is overestimating china's iphone sales saying they expect apple to sell under 10 million phones. and dan you had actually flagged this being that it was going to be as big a deal for apple. >> i think china bulls are looking for a lot of good
reason. they just refreshed their entire product psychle in the last four months. to me it's geographic expansion so china mobile, yes, they have 760 million subscribers and 125 million of those are on the 3g or 4g network. there are estimates out there that there are 30 million iphones already unlocked on china mobile. it could be disappointing. >> you know, i certainly brought the china mobile news. who says that the last 30 bucks. a lot of people would say it's based upon valuation. >> some people were in the know all the way up now. the news has not been confirmed yet. >> i have been saying that as long as you have been. but if you want to look at
what's happened, you have seen bottlenecks. people were worried about that. if you look at valuations, they got to a place where ultimately apple looked like bargain territory. 2014, that is your option. i think i have been clear on that. >> do you think it was china? >> we've got a dude in there. >> when a guy is talking so loud you can't speak, you have to dude him. >> and you do that. >> it's a split screen. >> china mobile opens a huge opportunity for apple. maybe the pricing model won't be successful there. you have to allow for the possibility that it might not be as hugely successful as people want it to be.
>> speak of talking over people. >> china mobile was a stock that really moved on this note. that move, some would argue is based on the anticipation. >> this is is a play to give you exposure and their ability to begin to monetize but done expect that tomorrow. >> let's bring in a top hedge fund manager, a famed tiger cub. david is now navigating through the crisis that is not quite over. he is president and both hedge funds are positive for the year. welcome back to the show. appreciate having you.
>> thanks for having me. >> i want to deal with apple because you actually like apple at this point. what do you think the sudden, sort of the late in the year rally was based on? >> and clarify the duty comment. >> you know, i think she is probably right on this. the bad news is amped away. >> what is a catalyst at this point? >> they have refreshed their products. that has been a pretty decent catalyst for them. over time to apple. it's a pretty big market. >> let's move on and talk about the crisis. that's on the table at this point. do you think it's over for the most part? >> i think it's over to a significant degree but there's a
whole lot of regulatory pressure that has followed the crisis that is not over by any stretch of the imagination. so in that respect, the crisis isn't over by any stretch of the imagination. we have got more work to do there. >> what's sorts of opportunities do you see based on what you're seeing? you mentioned wide swaths of the financial industry that has not come back. are those your opportunities? >> i think financials are interesting. look, i think the opportunities are many fold right now. you have got a market that is making new highs, an economy that is performing somewhat better than it was previously and the likelihood that we will
probably see some acceleration into next year. i think there are a lot of areas that are worth looking at and i think japan is worth looking at. >> we're going to get deep into the japan trade as well as other trades for 2014. in the meantime, getting cautious on coffee. one call sending shares of starbucks into the red. we will talk to the man behind the move. and let the sunshine in solar. sun power is up more than 400% this year but will the industry see the same run without subsidies? that's straight ahead. ♪ [ male announcer ] how could switchgrass in argentina, change engineering in dubai, aluminum production in south africa, and the aerospace industry in the u.s.?
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trading the stock hit a new high and the afterhours session is up even more. >> mastercard, these moves just highlight what a tremendous cash generator this business is. it's just been a great company. it's not cheap but i'm still going to hold it here. i'm happy that it's up 20. that's just stupid. i understand that well, it will be priced at 78. >> it's the same. >> it's the same. it's the same thing. so that better not be why. i like it. hanging on to it. >> love that. >> master. wow. >> seriously, mastercard, 43 new interday highs, visa, 22. >> it has had at least three or four times where we had headline risks.
>> the swipe fees, etc.? >> a number of things. we mentioned it then. to karen's point, probably expensive but the momentum still seems behind the guys. >> next up, the hash tag rally continues. above 50 a share. >> the stock was pretty well contained. it's only been trading about a month. some of the other web 2.0 lost a lot of momentum. i think there is very few high quality social is values. i don't think you buy it at 60 bucks.
maybe 40. >> you didn't like it last night or hash tag as we call you? >> i tell you what, 24 times 2014 revenue it's a valuation that i don't know what to do with. i wouldn't be buying it here. >> does anything change in your view now that's broken through 50? >> no. let me be clear, it didn't mean that i told people to go out and buy it. i didn't believe the story at $40. the story is less compelling at $50. it becomes a greater fools theory. we're going to have a conversation where we say can you believe people bought twitter at x? it's hard to say how much farther it can go.
>> or can you believe that they bid it up 15%? >> or 50% increase in market cap. starbucks cooling off today. a bearish note said momentum could be sploeing. >> you make the point that in august, capital spending hit its peak. how does that translate? >> we have been seeing a slow down in the amount of money people are spending and the frequency. we're about a point and a half below the street. and as we looked at just the total momentum here, things have really been slowing since the back half of september.
i think there is something happening with the high end consumer and a lot of low end consumers. >> you enclose a chart that has starbucks versus qsr. i would imagine that includes a lot of the lower end. what is happening here? >> i always try to compare to the higher premium names. that's what the consumer is. it is a guy that is making 80 to $90,000 a year. that's where they see the other high end consumers. >> mid single digits roughly and then through the acquisitions of teavanna, how do you channel that into look, it's going to be tough to live up to those comps but this company has got a
longer room to run? these are the reasons why i'm long this stock and stay long. >> i agree with you. i'm very positive on tar bucks. i think there is a kpouping things, navy will beat army. and the high end consumer will be there for starbucks. next year you will be very happy to own starbucks. >> we point out the 50 day moving average. this level was broken on very heavy volume. >> it's a value added call. at least he's making a call at the top. and itg did a great job at j.c.
penney a couple of weeks ago. operating margins have actually been improving. revenue slowing. operating margin getting better. i think it gets to 75 and you got to buy it. >> he sent me a chart in the middle of the day and said the stock has broken through the 50. i totally agree. is. >> so nice. pay attention. federal reserve has the 411 on a piece of data that might be the last puzzle piece. we will hear from the ceo of sun power live on set after this break. ♪ i want to spread a little love this year ♪
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>> here is another link back to our discussion. take a look at the chart of the day. the u.s. jobs opening index. tim, you flagged this one for us. before we actually got into the teeth of the crisis. this is 80% off of the lows. >> solar has been one of the hottest sectors this year. shares of sun power have climbed in 2014. partnering to build the world's largest solar plant in chile.
>> a lot of analysts said that your guidance for 2014 was healthy but not exciting. seems like we're at a point where people are looking at the concerns and catalyst for the future. the whole notion that solar is is a boom bust period. a lot of other companies are doing better. yourself, you have a fad that is going to come online to increase capacity online. what can you tell us about whether or not your industry has learned from the last time you overbuilt? >> the great news is when costs come down dramatically, solar is going mainstream.
as costs come down you can serve the customer for a longer period of time. to adjust to, we're that's not going to happen to your industry. >> that card has been played. the card was scaled module capacity. get costs down that has been played. mod chules are not that much ofe cost of a system. >> tom, your third quarter was great. i think nobody can cast aspersions. margins are great.
>> it's more of a mix thing and it's not an indication of the fundamentals of the business. we're bullish on the business. so we build out of a fad. if we're competing with power from the grid. we're really optimistic about the future. the next few quarters are perfectly good quarters. i think you will see the company have real potential. >> when should we expect to see more projects be reflected in estimates?
they have what? 40 people dedicated? >> it built into it shs yes. >> when there l you see those chilies come online. >> absolutely. i think 2015, you have got to build out a bigger power plants. we will see more chiles announced by us in the near term built out in the 14, 15 year time frame. >> abss lawsuitly. but also from the balance sheet perspective. also from the rhode island perspective. there is is a lot of advantage there. but yes, more chile, more south
africa. competing with the grid. going mainstream. >> tom, thanks for coming by. tom westernor, the ceo. >> that was probably the one to hold on to. but, what i love about tom's business is these guys are a global company. it is probably the most aggressive grower of solar. this is is a stock that is not expensive here. >> coming up next, he is fast. you see him making his way back on set. stay tuned. eas that spark your curiosity tdd# 1-800-345-2550 can take you in many directions. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 you read this. watch that. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 you look for what's next. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 at schwab, we can help turn inspiration into action tdd# 1-800-345-2550 boost your trading iq with the help of tdd# 1-800-345-2550 our live online workshops tdd# 1-800-345-2550 like identifying market trends. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 now, earn 300 commission-free online trades.
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>> the name itself is horrendous. >> former girl, the big issue, the big news today is they are facing a tax bill in india. people are saying they could be $3.5 billion. it's the cost of doing business in india. if you look at what they have done, and focusing on their core, this company will be profitable again and i think you can own it again. >> pop here for cbs. >> even though cvs was already the biggest, size does matter. they love this deal. these guys have been doing everything right for a few years. >> pop here for facebook. >> i was really surprised it reached the $48 level. you have an instagram event.
i think the stock wants to trade up to levels it saw before. >> and we have a pop for cabbies. a pair of photographerers are being hailed for creating a pin-up calendar of new york city drivers. proceeds will benefit a charity on the lower east side. >> this is going to be bad. that last guy lying down without a shirt on? mark cubanish about it. he looked just like him. just saying.
back to our cnbc exclusive now. the play book for 2014. he's a hedge fund manager. david, good to have you back. what's the biggest risk to the rally? >> when the fed starts pulling back on the amount they have in the system. >> no matter how litting or gradual it is in the market? >> the fed is walking a fine line in terms of trying to telegraph the longer routine. how well they do this is open to question. >> i know you play a lot in japan. what do you think is going on up there in terms of it's a very complicated balance between policy and consumption tax?
>> i think japan is in a full-fledged recovery. this has not been a high growth economy. they have been in recession on and off for the better part of 20 years but they have finally gotten themselves out of recession. i think you have to be long japan and long the right sectors. >> how about a sector? >> i like the real estate sector. beneficiary names as an example. >> all right. >> in terms of what you have heard about the valley, what has come when the fed starts to taper it's going to be at risk. i would think that would put certain sectors at more risk than others. in your view what are the biggest vulnerabilities in the market? >> the financial sector is going
to be most at risk. they're going to try not to do that. this is is a great monetary experiment. we haven't been through this before. how it shakes out is something that we will fall out. >> i think japan is going to outperform the united states. i think there are a number of stocks that are likely to work. >> delta is one. we have taken out a tremendous amount of capacity. the economy is growing again. fuel prices are undercontrol. the airlines, you know, were left for dead. they have moved up nicely.
>> thanks so much for coming over and sharing your top trades with us. let's switch gears here. lumber liquidators switching gears. >> it was interesting. the stock down more than 14% on guidance. that's a name that they traded about 350% of its average daily put volume. that's when options on lowes are relatively light. the ones trading most actively. by the end of the day those would have cost you about a buck. home depot would have been below $78 by the end of the week. as i look at these two names, 25 times earnings, which is a name that potentially has a lot of
growth. probably can't keep pace. i wonder whether a little bit lower might be the name to take a look at. >> thanks for that. more options action. check out our web site. . >> what's a trade on gm? that's next. and later, it's bitcoin week. we have got the youngest of bit coin entrepreneurs. smile. they're coming up. [ indistinct shouting ] ♪ [ indistinct shouting ] [ male announcer ] time and sales data. split-second stats. [ indistinct shouting ] ♪ it's so close to the options floor... [ indistinct shouting, bell dinging ] ...you'll bust your brain box.
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will now be gm's first female ceo ever. >> there may be some complaining a little bit right now but i think ultimately it's going to be a really good thing. >> probably for the first time in about eight years, i think we feel confident about 2014. the macro environment is improving. >> something is unhappy with a managed account or any advise that we rendered to investors. so we're stepping up to make that happen. >> clearly some big news for one of your portfolio holdings. she is is a woman, and i think
it will be a seamless transition. >> breaking news. john? >> we have got an announcement of a budget deal. the two chairs of the house and senate budget committees. this is something we have known about for some time. it is expected to be, we will get the details in a few minutes about a $90 billion deal that would lift the sequester caps easing some of the squeeze. it would involve some deficit reducti reduction. you have got no tax increases in this although there will be an increase in aviation fees, something that the house and senate and obama administration expressed tsh in before. they do hit things we are waiting to see whether or not there is any sort of agreement.
democrats made that last minute demand. we don't think it will be part of this deal. we may get an agreement to vote on a short term extension. the congress should do by the end of next week with something good to tell their constituents. >> appreciate it. a budget deal will be announced. i want to pull this back into the taper. part of that is the notion that there will be a budget deal. does that increase the odds in your view? >> it's amazing how the stars -- maybe it's not amazing. >> the job's numbers are better. the deal comes through. >> it's all coming together.
>> the fed could not do anything. >> this is great news. the two brain cells part of this is i think this is the next leg up. if you get corporations to start to believe, that is how this economy will heal. that's what we need. group one, automotive. joins us. >> thank you. good to be here. >> given your experience with gm and familiarity with people inside the company given the fact that she's a veteran, what do you think? >> i think it's a great choice. clearly they signalled this a long time ago. probably the most important job and clearly she was successful there. and i think mr. akerson
signalled it sometime ago when he said some day a female might run gm. i think he was letting us know that might be his choice. who has a better line up. >> ford has had the best line up but gm has really been coming on. they have been on the market here for a few months. we will have to see what the final verdict on that is. but gm clearly has the best product line-up in their history. a lot of kpetors also have their best line up. >> we think the growth will drop to about mid single digit. so, you know, i would think five
or six percent growth next year would still be a nice trend line for the recovery. >> and you expect that consumer spending will still, even if rates go higher, there is no concern about people being able to get loans by card? >> credit is wide open. even a small movement, i don't think will be a factor in our business. >> the ceo of group one automotive. gfi is a ticker symbol on that. we have got two of the world's youngest bitcoin entrepreneurs. 15 and 13. they are up next on "fast." stay tuned. so ally bank has a raise your rate cd
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guys, great to have you with us on the show. >> it's great to be here. >> nathan, i'll start off with you. what made you decide to take bitcoin? >> well, the idea of a non-centralized currency that was inflation proof was really -- that was something we really liked. so it was pretty interesting to us. >> and sam, i'm wondering how much honey do you sell and have you done many bitcoin transactions so far? >> we have done a lot of bit coin transactions and we have nearly -- we sell out of honey every year. >> it's karen. let me ask you guys something. once you get the bitcoin payment, do you immediately sell it for cash? or do you want to hang on to your bitcoin? >> we've held on to our bitcoins. we could transfer it to cash if
we wanted but we thought it would be better to hold on to the bitcoins. >> does it worry you that there are some recent periods where we saw the value of bitcoin plummet dramatically or do you think by the time you go to college these things will be worth something and you will cash in to pay tuition? >> at first we were pretty worried about drops and rises. but now we have gotten used to it and i think it's going to keep going up. >> have you guys made more money on the appreciation of the bitcoin than the underlying profits? i bet you have. >> yeah, we have. >> very cool. >> that could be a lot of honey. >> at 13 and 15? >> amazing. >> that's unbelievable. eighth grade and -- >> i would go straight to harvard. >> straight to dropping out of harvard. >> here is one. simple math. when you actually did the some
sort of calculation, what was the most expensive container of honey you sold after appreciation of the bitcoin? you sold it for a certain price in dollars and you got bitcoins. >> let them take the sats later. >> look at these two. i'm just asking. >> go ahead, give an answer. >> our first order was one little box of caramels. we sold that for 1.8 bit coin. and that's now a lot more. >> a whole lot more. >> and do you think you're selling more honey because you accept bitcoin? are there people that may not know about your business except for the fact that you take bitcoin? >> maybe. >> well now a whole lot more people know about your business, guys. thanks so much for joining us. >> could you send guy some honey lip balm, please? >> sam and nathan huntsinger. >> very articulate.
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>> did you know that it snowed? that's you, guy. >> shoveling out your driveway today. first making note of the east coast. time for the final trade. let's go around the horn. >> 10% stop on the bottom. >> dan? >> i like gm below 40. >> karen? >> hertz at 25. >> your line of questioning to sun power ceo was great. i thought he answered the questions well enough. and huge short interest. the stock has sold off enough that i think sun pow ser
interesting. >> what gummy bear do you have? >> they're all the same. >> they're not the same. see you tomorrow again at 5:00. don't go anywhere. mad money starts right now. >> to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere, and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money". william to cramerica. my job is not just to entertain, but to coach and teach, so kwaul me at 1-800-743-cnbc. in the stock market, just like in real life, bad leaders can be extremely worrisome. that's right. sometimes we get the wrong