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tv   Street Signs  CNBC  May 15, 2014 2:00pm-3:01pm EDT

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which was up better than 12% at one point in today's trading session and now up almost 11%. three winners, ty? >> look at three winners. symantec, up 21.85. and goodyear tire and wind stream higher as well. that will do it for this edition of "power lunch." thanks for watching. >> we will see you tomorrow. "street signs" begins now. so is europe once again the canary in a coal mine trouble for stocks? bojure. retailers should be very happy and what's wrong with walmart super businesswoman kathy ireland pops on to talk small business, mandy. and you have your eye on another ireland. >> yes. that's something i want to talk
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about today. i want to start with europe. the nasdaq and small caps are a major drag on the market. we've been following that almost daily. maybe mr. tepper has something to do with that. in a question of who is wagging who these days, you can make up your own mind. i want to bring up this chart, you made this chart. italy, usa and ireland. the red flag in the middle, usa. italy down 2% in the last month, first quarter, its economy contracted. down here, look what is happening with ireland, down over the past month about 4%. our question, brian, is europe once again a leading indicator of trouble ahead for us in the good old u.s. of a. rick santelli. since we're on this team of u.s. following europe how much does the europe yield following the low and already quite a bit lower than where we are?
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>> absolutely. let's start at the beginning. let's look at southern europe where rates manipulated lower. we saw rates in italy and spain pop up and boon yields move down even with germany's stronger than expected gdp. the spread widened over 20 basis points. that isn't a good thing. i personally think the draggiest chapter in the book of bazookas is starting to unravel. you talk about boons, 20 1/2 basis points, 9 1/2 year wide between their rate, 130 and our rate, 150. here's what seems to be happening. the europeans and southerners getting a dose of reality and getting nervous, they buy boons. on the spread, 130 over there and 250 here. we see buying of treasuries and boon and becomes a daisy train. you add in weak equities, today,
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down 136. what happens to yields? they go lower. what happened in january when the dow lost 1200 points we lost 40 basis points in tens. anybody who traded in 1987 know some of the bullest treasuries were the darkest days of the crash. all those dynamics together, in my opinion, europe is what you want to watch and europe going sour or southern interest rates going up can't be good for the economy. >> you're right. that's why we love you. and bob, do you agree? is europe a market indicating where we're headed? >> certainly there was too much zuberance on buying. and i want to take you here, a lot of people have been arguing despite europe, the u.s. is still the best place to invest
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globally. germany is up a little bit, the straw man, not a particularly great performance. and china down. the u.s. is still the best place even with the economic growth. look at these yields. at&t 5% and altria at 5. look at at&t. remember how it's going up recently. remember what's going on with directtv and them buying it. they want to use that partly to take the cash flow and pay the diffident. it will be guaranteed. dvy is the same. what they do, they screen for companies increasing their incr dividend. notice the performance has been pretty steady here. people sense even though there was concerns last year, they won't matter, dividend yeeflds
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will matter if we continue with this weak economic growth. >> thank you very much. our number of the day is 148. that seemingly random figure is important, how many companies in the s&p 500 now have a diffident yield above that of a 10-year government u.s. bond. that is abrove 60 companies in few months. for calling this move down in yields let us bring in our analysts. david, your recent note is canary in a coal mine, what are you watching the most closely right now? what matters to you? >> what matters to me right now is what's happening with asset managers. all of us like to have some sort of tell on the market, something qualitative that goes beyond the stream of analytical data we look at everyday and what i'm
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bringing now the canary in the coal mine is asset managers even though the s&p despite today is at all time highs, asset managers are mostly down. this is a trend that started almost six months ago. >> it feels like a lot of people have been caught flatfooted, off guard. how do you invest in a low rates environment we have now possibly even a falling rate environment? the rates have been falli falling -- i'm sorry. was that for me? >> lou. yeah. >> for the fourth year in a row the common wisdom was the yield on the 10-year would go higher. in investing the last few weeks in particular we've seen a lot of people caught off-sides and one of the factors that pushed the 10-year lower. not matter of investing in the 10-year, but flight to quality or safety and also people covering for a trade they've
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been off-sides for, pretty consistently over the last four years they've been off-sides for from the beginning of the year. >> question. if people are selling stocks and they are, that means they have money in their account. is where that money going to go? >> it looks at least today some is going into the bond market. i would say to a retail investor, if you're locking in a 10-year treasury yield south of 2.5%, look inside the stock market. there are some pretty exciting certainly stable names yielding more than the 10-year. >> that was our point. 148 companies are now yielding more than a government bond. i can assure you that they won't be going bankrupt in the next five months. >> i can go further. they are going higher. looks like they will turn this battleship around and good last night. i guess they will be higher at cisco systems with a 3.5% yield
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and doubt very much exxon with a 2.7% yield will disappear sometime in the next 10 years. if you're looking in that yield at 2.5% you should do soul searching. >> we will talk about cisco with herb greenberg despite that waving the yellow flag and microsoft and boeing and am among your picks. maybe higher in 10 year's time. what about you, lou. what are you looking at? >> i don't offer investment advice. one thing interesting, today on the day you might see money going into the treasuries fleeing the stock market, we're 2% off the high of the s&p, a record high and yields are right now in the 2.5% for the 10 year, the lowest they've been since october. the stock market has doubled since march of of 09 when it was 286. the relationship stocks to bonds has not held up in a one for one
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relationship in that time and other factors going on. i think in the 10-year the key is over the longer run, inflation and inflation expectations and growth prospects for the u.s. has decoupled from the gdp. >> lou and david, thank you very much for insiders. appreciate it. >> thanks for having us. mandy referenced this, hedge fund david tepper made $3 billion last year himself saying i'm not saying go short, i'm just saying, don't be too fricking long right now. his term, not ours. herb is at the salt conference. all right, herb. tepper looks smart today. did he get it right or was he the reason this is happening and thus becoming a self-fulfilling prophesy. >> there's always a self-fulfilling prophesy in these things, and he was reminding people and said it
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it's one thing looking at market trading 11 times earnings and another a market trading 16 sometimes earnings. one time is cheaper than the other. when it's not as cheap you have to take that into consideration if you are really really strongly long. >> one of the other things tepper said that really caught our eye that the ecb better ease in june. you know what, there are a lot of people that agree with him notably carey cominski, friend of cnbc and now at morgan stanley said the real headline is the ecb is late which fed into our thesis at the top of the show, herb. >> the raeal question, what's going on in europe, hits to what you said earlier, is it the canary in the coal mine? your guess and his guess on this is anybody's guess. you're looking for telltale signs in this market for anything you can reach at and say there's something antidote
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tally. it's an important. i was in san francisco visiting a bunch of friends this past monday. >> now, i know you're lying. >> these are very very smart people -- brian -- these are very smart people. what they were looking at, they've been there, traders, know tech, said look at the sal building. they're building a 70 story building, 1.1 million square feet priced around $100 a square foot. they were saying, my goodnesses, you look at the issues and say -- >> san francisco -- san francisco, i love it but it's not america anymore. it's its own little weird bubble of wealth and pockets of absolute extravagance in every form. nobody can afford a home. teachers live 100 miles away from where they work because houses are 1 wh-- so expensive. >> brian. >> yes, herb. >> brian, i can't sit here and speak to europe, what's happening in europe. it's not where my level of
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expertise is. i can look at a variety of different things going on. europe is one potential telltale sign. which one do you want to pick, brian? >> you have all these smart rich people walking down the halls of bellagio and vegas throwing hundreds down on the crap tables, ask them. >> die. i talk to very rich people here and smart strategists. let me tell you what they're telling me. what we've seen in the market's route is just the beginning. there are people who have done very good work and very good calls in their lives believe the next leg is not a pleasant leg. do they know anything more than you or i or tepper? time will tell. >> at least people are saying frankfurt is prepping some kind of stimulus package for the economies over there. i will throw you a bone. let's get back to something you are an expert on, herb. that is cisco. i mentioned a moment ago you're raising the yellow flag on that one of the only positive dow
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components there. do you think maybe that's not quite right? >> i think this is a classic example of this market grasping at straws, basically looking for something they want to find somethi something positive in. this company spun the quarter. look at the headline on the press release, we see signs of growth opposed to reporting earnings and look at deeper issues. i wrote this up in realty check. this is a company that has a tremendous amount of stealth inventory off its balance sheet that's backing up in the supply chain there. interesting we talk about inventory,s there quarter in its earnings release they didn't break out finished goods and raw materials in inventory, they just gave you a lump sum. you have to wait for the 10q to figure out what's going on. i argue cisco, based on the numbers beyond what you're seeing in the spin, they can
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talk about positively we're looking at growth again, go back three-quarte three-quarters, they're saying the same thing. he wants something. the stock is up today and will remain up. think the stock has to do something more dire going forward with an interesting announcement. they have a lot of inventory. i can't stress the inventory enough, off balance inventory. >> look beyond the spin. thanks very much. now to dom for a quick market flash. >> check out what's happening in blackberry stock coming off its low spiking up, the company saying on its own official site it sees cash flow positive by 2015 and made a number of positive mentions including the fact they have 800,000 new blackberry service members since march. that company about flat but interesting move for blackberry. >> thank you. time for today's mystery chart?
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>> i'm ready. i'm on the edge of my seat. >> you're always on the edge of your seat. best market performing sector etf this year, done very well. here's your hint. think malls. >> time for cleanup in aisle 5. walmart listing its fifth quarterly decline. this is the world's biggest retailer. why can't you get it right? kathy ireland a multi billion dollar business builder, she's here. we go to break, dow jones industrial average down 183 points, not what we were hoping for. man: vamanos. driver & passenger: vamanos. woman: gracias. driver & passenger: gracias. passenger: trece horas en el carro sin parar y no traes musica. driver: mira entra y comprame unas papitas. vo: get up to 795 miles per tank in the tdi clean diesel.
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walmart having a pretty rough day today after posting its fifth down in quarterly sales. they mentioned weather three times but can you just blame the weather on this? >> as you might imagine, wal-mart blamed the weather. there are extra costs to manage the supply chain taking 3 cents away from the bottom line. they also qualified the weather impact and they paid more taxes than anticipated and took a currency hit of $1.6 billion, a hit to revenue and that marked
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the fifth straight quarter of stagnant or lower u.s. same-store sales and attributing it to economically strained lower income shopper and the reduction in the government food stamps affected them and the forecast comes from a cautious but still resilient consumer. >> we will blame it on the snow or tornadoes or something bigger than that. perhaps there's also something else brewing at walmart. jan rogers niffin, president worldwide. what kind of name is that for your company, worldwide nfr enterpri enterprises? >> i have kids on five continents. that's not true at all. is anything wrong with walma-ma? >> what's wrong with wal-mart is what's wrong with the lower half of america. not doing well.
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getting snapped more than they were, paying more in social security taxes than they were two years ago. it's a problem. until we see some growth in the economy if you're a $500 billion retailer with 300 billion in the states you look a lot like the demographic and lower demographic is what we're hearing. >> not good for shareholders to say. no one will sit around and wait and want solutions. >> i agree, the solution is a much stronger online business. walmart is the second largest player on amazon doing $10 billion online. they will have an omni channel business similar to macy's is doing from the point of view of approaching the customer and will grow that business. retailers have to do that. walmart is into the game, closest behind nordstroms and macy's in getting that done. i think we'll see more life there. they're growing that business faster than amazon.
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>> if you go back and look three years, wal-mart's three years sales growth is 4.1%, double target and quadruple kohl's. >> wal-mart is a large company and it takes a lot to move the need. that's billions and billions of dollars. there is something to be said about what jan's point is the economic strains many consumers are feeling. they did see bumps where you expect to see bumps at easter time in very specific categories. folks aren't freely spending as much as they used to. i took an informal twitter poll and people said, i'm not spending, my debt is too high. i've learned my lesson. >> is wal-mart too big? >> you can't ask that.
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>> wal-mart is not big enough. they need to absorb everything in the united states down in their category and do it quickly. they need to grow small stores and take it away from dollar stores and own the part of the business that ties in with target. they're about to do both of those. >> they are growing market share in a number of consumer categories. >> including groceries. >> i guarantee you target and walmart sell 95% of the same stuff. the differientation is in marketing and concept >> and apparel and home goods. the groceries will be the same. >> that's the 5%. >> the differentiation is even less than it used to be. in 2006, target and wal-mart didn't look alike. target didn't have the huge commitment to grocery in consumables, doing a lot more in apparel >> we started by saying how the lower end is struggling, why, by the way the lower end has always struggled. they're the lower end. they have no money.
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but the opposite case made, when things get better wal-mart struggles because that middle of the road consumer moves up. >> right. i think that middle of the road consumer has moved up to the higher end luxury players. we're seeing big bifurcation between high end and low end. the middle guy is still in the middle. if you're high end you've gone high end. you haven't moved down the way, in my opinion. >> i think the middle is also evaporating. we've seen this middle of the countryback less m country less middle and more upper and lower, not what their income looks like. >> their income has gone to double xl. i saw a quadruple xl sweat shirt. i'm a big guy. it looked like a muumuu on me. >> it could double as a tent. >> true. >> courtney, jen, thank you for joining us. we're still looking at these
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markets and the dow down nearly 200 points at this stage, i think the worst day for dow and s&p in over a month at this stage. the small caps and russell 2000 taking it on the chin. those little things still get you. cialis tadalafil for daily use helps you be ready anytime the moment is right. cialis is also the only daily ed tablet approved to treat symptoms of bph, like needing to go frequently. tell your doctor about all your medical conditions and medicines, and ask if your heart is healthy enough for sex. do not take cialis if you take nitrates for chest pain, as it may cause an unsafe drop in blood pressure. do not drink alcohol in excess. side effects may include headache, upset stomach, delayed backache or muscle ache. to avoid long-term injury, get medical help right away for an erection lasting more than four hours. if you have any sudden decrease or loss in hearing or vision,
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negative day clearly in the markets. a lot going on inside. first of all, rec space, jpmorgan's big call. >> they're out there trying to defend the name. not working right now. rack space down with the market. down 27% year-to-date and jpn assuming overweight rating on rack space, target 35 bucks, small comfort for a stock that was $53 late last year but jpn trying to come to their defense. >> and one of the stocks moving high higher marginally, we'll take the green where we can get it. >> this kind of day, you forget the recommendations, everything is down. these are long term numbers.
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goldman rate iing range resourc to buy from neutral. the stock is at 90.89 and change up 20% from the upside and already been up 18% over the last 18 months. >> and goldman sachs making a call. >> this stock is up. kinder marring gone eer morgan firm. 33% upside to the stock. here's probably why. the dividend yield on these type companies, 5% double that of the 10 year note. people reaching for yield today. >> l-3 comm, up. >> they go from buy or sell to buy. target also goes from 117 to 146. that's 24 answer upside and 20
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bucks higher than the current consensus price for l-3 communications. >> and under the radar name of the day, ticker oas. >> i never heard of them. a real estate play of water boilers. buy rated, 55 bucks a share, 7 1/2 bucks on upside on aos. meanwhile disappointing results on a cancer drug trial sending bristol-myers stock down today. does that mean you should not own it? >> one more look at our mystery chart today slowly grinding up making it the best performing etf of 2014 so far.
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that corporate trial by fire when every slacker gets his due. and yet, there's someone around the office who hasn't had a performance review in a while. someone whose poor performance is slowing down the entire organization. i'm looking at you phone company dsl. check your speed. see how fast your internet can be. switch now and add voice and tv for $34.90. comcast business built for business. now to our talking numbers segment we do it every day a look at a symptom from fundamental privilege. that's bristol-myers, down today after bmo downgraded the stock from market perform to market outperform after disappointing results on the company's cancer
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treatment. andrew joins us now. short term sell-off or longer term real kern for bmy? >> i will go with longer term real concern, brian. as a strategist we take things from a bigger picture standpoint. interesting, if you look at the industry as a whole, talking about pharma, typically you go to market periods like this you want to flock to a pharmacompany, and this is expensive that got up to pe multiple 30 times, twice the overall market. certainly wouldn't look there for defensive exposure and also doesn't have particularly good yield either. we don't think there's a lot interesting to buy. >> it's been very volatile this year. do you think it goes down further from here? >> i do. i'm with andrew on this one. this is a tale of two tops. clearly, this is a tough time
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for bristol-myers. it did well and then we run into trouble double top within the context of bigger top forming and broken below that line and clinging there to support the horizontal neckline of the double top pattern. when we pull back and look at it longer term it goes from bad to worse, loot at that 100 week average and trend line. the stock market tracks that with precision. we tracked it in a way that i see the tail end of the bearish run and set for a fast move down looking back around that trend at 100 week moving average, perhaps 42, this is a stock that could trade $35. i would be a seller in anticipation of that fast move down. >> should you buy bristol-myers? absolutely no. thank you for joining us, andrew and rich ross and check out the online addition with yahoo!
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financ finance. >> i am. bristol-myers is the worst performing market followed by e-trade and charles squab and micron. e-trade and charles schwab has been very weak and maybe that reflects what investors are doing and whether or not wall street seen this coming. and cisco, the best performer in the s&p 500 right now. >> and one of the only good performers. we've been talking lower with the dow and s&p. it's the worst day in over a month hire for those two particular indices. early on today there were only about three particular stocks including cisco, and verizon. >> there's only one now. >> only one. >> i'll give you a reason to not be as concerned, what you talk about all the time, copper.
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copper is actually higher right now. if there was this great global macro kern about the global economy reslowing down, europe dragging us in the murasce, we might see copper, i was looking at a different date. even july contract down one penny. so the contract i'm looking at is slightly higher. in other words, copper is not falling off a cliff today and natural gas up -- >> pretty weak so far this year. remember earlier on this week we did the mystery chart and it was side by side. the best commodity is your bet, coffee. the worst performing commodity has been copper, and i don't know if it's tied with what's going on with china. it is a good point. cisco, slightly higher on the dow. everything else looking decidedly red. >> now is your last chance to tweet your guest for the mystery
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time to reveal our mystery chart of the day. think malls, and the best performing etf so far this year, the answer, s&p reit, ticker rwr, up 15% year-to-date. its biggest holding is simon property group, thus the think malls. reits have done great. and dividend payer. >> seems like the gm recall mess is never ending. the beautiful thing about this is phil is actually here with us today instead of chicago. lucky us. >> this is not good news if you're a gm investor and the reason the stock is down today. this is a series of recalls from general motors. take a look at this. a total of five recalls, 2.7 million evacuation are impacted over these five recalls
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announced today. the reason the stock is down, look at that charge for the second quarter. $200 million. the bulk of these recalls of the 2.7 million, 2.44 involving vehicles built between 2004 and 2012. they're being recalled because of problems with the tail lamp. what is interesting when you look at the background of the tail lamp issue, 13 crashes, several hundred complaints according to general motors. this is what i find really interesting, there was a service bulletin about this issue sent to dealers and to the service departments of dealerships back in 2008. now, they've decided, let's do a full recall. as you take a look at the number of recalls from general motors, this is staggering, 23 recalls for all of last year, not even a million vehicles were impacted, so far this year, 25 recalls, 10.5 million vehicles. that's an estimate from general motors, at least 10.5 vehicles impacted.
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we talk about why the stock is under pressure today, rcb summed it up saying this is even more of a 2015 story at this point because you can't guarantee all the recall news is out and we don't think there is major news coming in involving the recall switch and they haven't done it yet. expect that in the next couple of weeks. involving all recalls, when is the end concerning general motors and we've got all the past issues out. >> when is? >> a lot of people thought that a few weeks ago they announced a slew of recalls and analysts said now you can feel confident. that is this kitchen sink and now this comes out and people say, will there be another slew of recalls in a couple of months? >> is there a chance we've gone too far, the companies are so terrified of bad press they have a minor problem, let's recall them all. >> they don't want the fed breathing down their throats. there are gm executives going to
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washington and have nhtsa breathing down their throats and nobody cautions them. as an investor looking at a $200 million charge, how do you know there's not going to be a $200 million charge in the third or fourth quarter. >> you don't. a special documentary on gener general motors called "failure to recall:investigating gm." 10:00 eastern time on sunday night. a reminder, a huge day for the markets. dow is down 180 points right now. our good friends, bill and kelly, i have a feeling you might mention the dow at some point during your show. >> among other things, absolutely. the big debate, as you guys know, why is this happening the way it is. a herky jerky market and the big mystery is the bond market and why yields have fallen as dramatically as they have.
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>> if everybody wants a preview, check out the ticker. the high yield is a misnomer. we're talking about potential for record low yields even though it had a sell-off. >> two words by the bond market is moving guys, bell jump. >> bell jump? >> belgium. >> belgium. among other things. >> just the fact foreigners are buying u.s. treasuries? >> the fact, i think there was a fantastic note from peter this morning putting his finger on the pulse saying possibly a large company, maybe even china doing a lot of buying of treasuries but doing it through belgium, maybe not necessarily belgium buying. >> or ecb. not china. no sounds like a great suspense novel. we'll look into that. david tepper, the big hedge fund manager expressing his concerns about the stock market. that may have something to do with it. we have another hedge fund biggie joining us, bruce
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richards. he will be here to give us his thoughts on this market and where he sees things going. >> if nothing else, tepper has proved his timing is impeccable. >> or he caused this route. we don't know. thank you very much. >> look forward to seeing that on the "closing bell" gum. see you in 15 minutes. >> thanks. this morning we got started with a red flag from walmart and retail heavy hitter about to give us her thoughts. supermodel turned entrepreneur, kathy ireland is on the way next. >> i love this job, can i just say that?
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now you could have done it twice. this is awkward. check your speed. see how fast your internet can be. switch now and add voice and tv for $34.90. comcast business built for business. the fcc voted today by a 2-3 vote to impose new rules on so-called net neutrality allowing internet service providers to charge heavy content like youtube and netflix for fast delivery and create a fast and slow lane of the fcc and also asking the public if it should go even further try to regulate the internet as public utility. democrats on the panel approved the plan and two republicans voted no. don't get your snickers in a twist. there is a public review panel
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starting now and vote the end of this year. i doubt snicker knickers ary this next guest. kathy ireland is joining us from 4s conference belting a $200 million brand. i'm getting tongue tied and will ask you a question. how is your business? how do you see the economy? >> thank you. no dumb questions. we're very grateful our business is doing great. we're celebrating our 21st year this year. it's been an incredible journey. i'm encouraged by what i'm seeing in the marketplace, particularly with entrepreneurship. we're at the forbes women's summit, about the entrepreneurship of everything. we're re-defining power, mora forbes has brought together some phenomenal people who happen to be women, leaders in science,
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military, government, the big four, ceos, philanthropists. this is why i'm excited about our future, with this group of women coming together. it's extraordinary. generally speaking we love the guys, we don't discriminate. guys are really at delegating. women are extraordinary at implementing an that's what's happening here today. >> that's why we make such a great pair, right? just a moment ago we were talking about walmart and our guest was suggesting that it is kind of like a window on the economy. right? a barometer of the consumer particularly at the low end. they're not doing particularly well right now. you have a lot of brand, have you a lot of particular products across all sectors of the economy. where do you see weakness, where do you see strength right now? >> diversification is key and that is where we're working at every level of distribution. and being in step, being ahead of the curve as far as what that is all about.
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that is critical. we see growth in small businesses and i'm very encouraged by that. i'm very encouraged by what i'm seeing in our other country as well as globally. i think that is a very strong determination about where this economy is going. it is exciting. >> i was glad to see you said a minute -- i thought i were going to say men are good at moving heavy things instead of just delegating. >> we love the guys. we need to learn from you all. you're excellent at delegating and sometimes women i think we try to do it all. we have a hard time saying no. >> you're saying -- >> we love what we do but there is a lot to learn. >> it's a veiled insult. you're saying all we're good at, men, is telling other people what to do. >> no, i did not say that. guys are good at many things. we love the guys. but guys do tend generally speaking to be goodell gators. >> i'm pretty good at
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delegating. brian, can you go pick that up for me? >> thanks, guys. >> thank you, kathy ireland. >> little fun interview -- can't have bad news all six hours of the market day. the dow down plus we're just off record highs. people's 401(k)s have doubled over a couple of years. things are good. today they're not. dan greenhouse, as well and brian piskerowski. we are seeing a sell-off, dan. are you concerned or is this just a healthy pullback? >> you are focusing on one day here. for our clients that trade in non-s&p 500 names, the russell 2000 or even the russell 1000, this isn't a one-day affair. it's been a several-month affair. those guys are having a much tougher time right now. it is very easy for me to say don't forget the s&p 500 made a new high two days ago. but for those clients that aren't as exposed to the s&p as
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much as the russell, it is of little consolation. >> i'm just wondering, so there are pockets of weakness but nonetheless a lot of it is being put down to the weather. is the economic data we're getting on a daily basis weak enough to justify such low rates to you? >> i think what you're seeing here is a combination. i think first on the large cap versus small cap thing we all remember how great 2013 was. 32% total return on s&p. then looking in the small-mid, were you up between 35% and 37%. you have to frame that out. even see egg the underperformance in the russell this year. that said, we are in a very data-determined market right now. griffin the fed's case laid out for tapering, but then add in the wait-and-see approach at chair yellen has intoe natunate. at some point fed needs to move higher on interest rates.
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i think this year is devoted to adjusting when and how that will happen. beyond that looking at the equity case. when you look at u.s. stocks right now, they have a lot more competition than they did this time last year. last year we were the tallest of the dwarfs here in the united states. this year obviously europe looks better not directed out of the gdp numbers out of europe today per se but the other side of the silver lining of that coin is you've seen what's intonated by ecb -- >> how do you think is the tallest dwarf now? excuse the expression. >> thank you, mandy. i think what you are looking at for us, we still like best versus developed japan and emerging. said, the u.s. has done better than its counterparts. rebalanced a strategy right here which will get you a little more allocation maybe some things outside the u.s. than inside of the u.s. buyers of the u.s. on pullbacks. i think you ought to be waiting for are a little more --
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>> two quick questions. do you agree that the ecb must do something, they will ease? if not, what do we do based on what the ecb does? >> it is a pretty foregone conclusion at this point though i shouldn't say that. it is pretty likely the ecb will cut rates, reduce deposit rates into negative territory. i don't think that will matter one bit with respect to the broader economy or bank lending ratios or rates. i also don't think that asset purchases on the order er of quantitative easing is likely either. our view is that if the ecb really wanted to do something, they should buy u.s. treasuries. >> they might be. >> i got news for you. we put out a note about that. one or two other shops have sort of put out a similar idea. it is not likely but it is something they should be considering. >> dan and brian, thank you so much. we are off the lows of the day right now but there is still one
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more hour of trading to go. we'll look at what's going to be driving the markets for the rest of the day. >> the best performing thing right now is natural gas. natural gas is up 2.5% right now to $4.47 per btu. if you're looking for something that's higher today -- >> is that the technical term, "thing"? [ girl ] my mom, she makes underwater fans that are powered by the moon. ♪ she can print amazing things, right from her computer. [ whirring ] [ train whistle blows ] she makes trains that are friends with trees. ♪ my mom works at ge. ♪ i'm spending too much time hiring and not enough time in my kitchen. [ female announcer ] need to hire fast? go to and post your job to over 30 of the web's leading job boards with a single click;
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at a special site for tv viewers; and i get a lot in return with ink plus from chase i make a lot of purchases for my business. like 60,000 bonus points when i spent $5,000 in the first 3 months after i opened my account. and i earn 5 times the rewards on internet, phone services and at office supply stores. with ink plus i can choose how to redeem my points. travel, gift cards even cash back. and my rewards points won't expire. so you can make owning business even more rewarding. ink from chase. so you can. here's some sort of good news for you. 31 years and $37 billion later,
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the federal government will finally quit charging you a fee on your electric bill for something it never actually did in the first place. you've probably never noticed everyone of your electric bills included a fee for building a nuclear waste site. sounds good. but no plans were ever made to build the site but uncle sam kept charging you anyway. via a court order that brought in $750 million per year. of course, don't get stoo excited, america, you're not getting a refund. $37 billion sits in that fund. the feds now say they may use it to actually build a nuclear waste site by the year 2048. >> by which time we'll have well and truly disappeared off this planet. a very big market day here today. let's bring you two points that we haven't yet hit on. first, the convictivix is up 8.. was up more than 10% earlier on
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today. i guess it is still only at 13 so historically very low. earlier i talked about the term complacency. >> my big thing is the kbe bank index, worst per forming etf this month. hi, everybody. welcome to "the closing bell." a market sell-off on wall street today. take a look at what's happening across major stock indexes. i'm kelly evans down here at the new york stock exchange. bill, it's been a sea of red. >> for the stock market. different story for the bond market where yields have come down. the 10-year treasury yielding for a time below 2.5% for the first time in about six months. that has the markets -- again, it's a conundrum if the stock market earlier had


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