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tv   Fast Money  CNBC  November 10, 2014 5:00pm-6:01pm EST

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he's playing and thought we wouldn't notice. >> it bugs me that we will give china more vreas. why can't this country negotiate tough. >> "fast money" is coming up.vr. why can't this country negotiate tough. >> "fast money" is coming why can't this country negotiate tough. >> "fast money" is coming why can't this country negotiate tough. >> "fast money" is coming up.ea. why can't this country negotiate tough. >> "fast money" is coming why can't this country negotiate tough. >> "fast money" is coming up.s. why can't this country negotiate tough. >> "fast money" is coming up.. why can't this country negotiate tough. >> "fast money" is coming up. we'll be talking about singles day which is already six hours under way in china. we also have by the way an exclusive with roubini. he'll tell us his take on the -- >> i want to know if he has a bobblehead, as well. >> not as fine as this one. thanks, kelly. "fast money" starts right now before live from the nasdaq market site, i'm melissa lee. dr. doom or dr. boom?
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n roubini joins us live. and all45% of sales coming from mobile. so we ask the question tonight as ali baba closes, close to session highs at a new record, is this a sell the news event? >> no, absolutely not. if you have any indications from some of this is ali baba's own financial services, but they plan twice as much to merchants and events going into this bachelor's day, single's day, whatever you want to call it. a lot of people are just catching wind of it, but if you want to look at the metrics, it seems everything we'll hear from all the merchants, this is a very, very big day and something that should far exceed i think the expectations. >> it's a great story. but it's also appreciated about 40% in the last few weeks. so when you think about on a
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market cap basis, other than $100 billion in market cap. so i calls went ballistic. price of options has gone up a lot. i suspect you see a little bit of a sell the news. i think you'll probably see the stock below 150. >> you're in a little bit. >> yes, i am. i'd rather have it trade down than up. i could have come in a little bit, yes, but i wouldn't trade out of it right now because i think the chance of my being able to pick when to get back in is slim. i'll just hang on -- about it does come in a fair amount south of 110, then -- >> i think to tell's point, the ancillary trade has been yahoo!. now have a lot of analysts raising their price targets. i'm seeing some 55s.
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somebody is out there with a 60. so now the problem with yahoo! is the next quarter which i think is in january, they really have to do something off the charts otherwise this stock will be in troubling. >> this is all about ali baba. they did the heavy lifting. >> that's right. and i think at a certain point, they can only do it so longed a then yahoo! has to prove themselves. but you're right, it's been about ali baba. >> we saw all of them huge. is ali baba worth extrapolating? >> of course. >> just the appetite for the shopping holiday. >> it's an important time. the internet e-commerce in china, this is almost on some level still on display, the logistics, delivering on time, all the things that are very important that we take for granted over here. a lot of people still getting to know. so as it reads through to the rest of the space, very important. second large i ali baba overall, a company that is offering
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extraordinary growth at a reasonable price. so it's an interesting time .international growth, so making china open to the world, or the world open to china, that's what is important here. we'll see that tomorrow. >> and let's bring in mark mahaney. he has a buy rating on alli bab. mark, good to see in you person. at what point do you start getting concerned about the valuation or does valuation not apply to alley back pa yet? >> it does all rigready apply. we have a 130 price target. small buy. >> small buy. >> interesting term. >> and i want to be careful here. a year ago they put out robust numbers about singles day. got a lot of publicpublicity. but the growth rate was a little less. i'd worry a little about this as a setup. they pulled up demand to boost
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the single base number today. so just be careful about that. if the market will extrapolate and say whatever they print tonight, 50%, 60%, that's what the growth will be, i think that carries risk. >> and also there is the issue of returns. last year i think 25% of growth merchandise value was actually returned after the holiday. are you concerned the numbers as we're getting them $2 billion for instance in the first hour, any might not be the most accurate read? >> wait a second. if that $2 billion is right, last year they did $5.7 billion or a little under 6 buil$6 bui$. so the market will extrapolate $2 billion -- >> recommend bwe aren't buyers day. be careful about buying it just -- right now, i think that
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trade may have just happened. >> mark, what do you say about people that say -- i know you're not focused on the singles day itself, but how about extrapolating across the year and the growth of internet and to some extent the people are not appreciating the fact that this is still not how we view it in this country. the internet sales in china are still on a per capita basis so small that the opportunity is great. >> interesting thing about ali baba, this is the amazon, ebay, google of china. they put it august togetheit al. the doj would be knocking down whoever was there. 70%, 80% share of e-commerce. if you want to play commerce in china, you kind of have to buy ali baba. that's where sales are going. it's only when we start seeing signs of markets that are slippage, maybe the, maybe other companies, that's where we have to worry about it. >> so it's a small buy right
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now. >> $130 price target, so modest up side from here. other names have gotten more up side. >> like what? >> amazon. you can't be surprised. >> i am. why is that so much superior to ali baba when they actually carry inventory and ali baba does not in ali baba has a much bigger market than amazon. there are so much just obvious things. >> well, it's a business model and ebay's business model is also dramatically more attractive. doesn't mean the stock is better. but the setup to think about for '15, not for the next two months, but for 15 kait'15, it'e end of an investment cycle. amazon is coming out of one. comps get dramatically easier. and they have other exposures to japan, cloud computing, price consults that happened in the june quarter. so we're through the investment
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cycle and no doubt about in the price to sales ratio, it's near a trough level. so investors are pretty darn skeptical. ali baba investors aren't skeptical. i think there is more up side next 12 months. >> would you rather amazon orally back about a? sounds like amazon. >> yes. >> let's talk about twitter.bac? sounds like amazon. >> yes. >> let's talk about twitter. in order to have twitter outperform, it needs to increase reach with advertisers. how does logged out users translate into engagement levels? i don't understand this whole notion of logged out users being valuable. >> that's a darn good question. one of the reasons that we have a hold on the stock. let me step back. we had a buy on the stock from the ipo and this stock was extremely volatile. i was here when it was up 25% and still a buy. but we were waiting to see signs from all these product
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improvements. translate it into mau growth.en. but they haven't paid off. so either it will take a lot longer than we thought or it won't happen. and the company is saying they will have the largest audience in the world. you will not if it keeps accelerating. also what has happened, we've had a lot of management change. i've never seen this much in one company. there are people on the board who should be responsible for it that, like this is a board problem that we had this much management change in this short of time. so i'll step back. they need to prove that they can stabilize that un uni growth. >> mark, thanks for stopping by. guy oig, play our would you rather. amazon orring ing ring ingor a.
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>> i'm ali baba camp. in the short term, the stock is vulnerable.about a. >> i'm ali baba camp. in the short term, the stock is vulnerable. >> karen. >> absolutely. i don't get the amazon thing. i don't -- i disagree with mark, i think they will find a way to spend more money. that's what they do. and think we're seeing prices come down. this valuation seems crazy. asset heavy model, amazon seems -- i don't get it. >> what i found most interesting about wlark said about to wit, heading into the first annual list meeting, remember, it's still up 40% some from that ipo price. so this has a $25 billion market cap. they're about to do $1.2 billion in sales. and when i think about to what facebook just said, they paid $22 billion for i think 500 a, 600 users.
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and when he's talking about monetization, here is it a company about to go to over 2 billion in sales next year. this is an interesting company to me with a $25 billion market cap. i don't think there is anything that they will say that is particularly positive at the meeting on wednesday, but if the stock flushes down for the mid-30s, i think it's a buy. >> be sure to catch the interview with jack ma tomorrow 10:00 a.m. on "squawk on the street". we have a news alert meantime. let's go to dom chu. p. down about 3 1/2 hours in the after market on 58,000 shares before the company has announced that they will conduct a secondary offering of stock. the plan is to sell 6 million shares of stock and it will be done by existing stockholders. so no proceeds. at current market prices, raising $211 million.
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also on the second carry stock offering front, check out what is happening with sfh. those are down, as well. the company says it is announcing the launch of a public offering of 15 million shares of common stock held by al pop a polo global. ubs acting as the sole underwriter. that's about $455 million in tuckeds raised. so again, sprouts farmers markell down in the after market. >> thanks. and of course this entries to mind what is going on with gopro. th this seem like a problem. >> and you have a lot of these
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high flying tech stocks where a lot of insiders are learning the company is not doing a lot with the stock but people looking to get out. and that's always a concern especially with valuations for a lot of these guys unsustainable. i think this is a case where the casual dining space is a little overdone. cmg taking a lot of people up with it. >> i tell you what, we don't talk about probably enough. almost a $5 billion market cap company. this is now going to push down to levels we last saw in may. they flush it out tomorrow, i think for a trade this one sets up really interesting. >> the natural gas weaning streak coming to an end. should investors buy? dennis gartman's take. and why the white house is getting involved with your internet. that's next.
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big day? ah, the usual. moved some new cars.
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hauled a bunch of steel. kept the supermarket shelves stocked. made sure everyone got their latest gadgets. what's up for the next shift? ah, nothing much. just keeping the lights on. (laugh) nice. doing the big things that move an economy. see you tomorrow, mac. see you tomorrow, sam. just another day at norfolk southern.
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let get today's top trade. netflix higher today after president obama accepted as strong message to the fcc with his views. take a listen. >> the public has already commented nearly 4 million times
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asking the fcc to make sure that consumers, not the cable company, gets to decide which site they use. >> this response, netflix tweeting president obama agrees, consumers should pick winners and losers, not broadband gate keerps. joining us now is managing director and analyst at janey capital markets. tony, it was surprising that the reaction net nix shares wasn't sharper. netflix shares wasn't sharper. should the president's intent get executed? >> we're long from seeing i think the action here. it's a big shift in momentum, but the president will have to go to congress and honestly getting the republicans to sign off on this is a long shot. but at the end of the day, what you have is the internet publishers having a victory take and probably what is the biggest issue for all of media which is
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what is somebody going to have to pay to download a movie or surf on the internet. and the whole idea of having to pay for usage, there is a conflict of interest there and it seems like the government is taking greater attention to about. >> there seems to be a does hdo proportionate reaction. if things are so far off, why did we see that sharp reaction? proportionate reaction. if things are so far off, why did we see that sharp reaction? >> nobody likes to be told that they might be a utility. and for comcast, it's a big fear. and i think the multiple compression is a big fear for them. whereas netflix, the business will do just fine. i think the fees are relatively trivial to the commitments that they have out there. and even if there were these tolls there, there are few people that could afford to pay those tolls outside of net tfli
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and youtube. >> when you think about the lobbying effort that a cable organization -- that a cable industry could put together, do you think they could prevent this from happening? >> that's the thing that is really interesting here. actually i think that washington was squarely in the cable camp going as far back as 2010. and the question, why is there this shift all of a sudden. not to bore people, but the fcc has tried to do something like title two in the past. this is really where they would get authority. have more say over the internet. they have been reluctant to do that. they have sided with the cable upgraders. i wonder here if people are underestimating the political pressure from just the voter and frankly will i think it's a political nightmare if you had facebook, instagram, netflix, google and a whole bunch of other guys saying press this if you want to lobby your
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congressional leader and prevent your data bill from moving higher. i think that 4 million comments referenced is a part of this. we have to remember everybody john oliver was able to crash the website. >> tony, thanks. if they don't have to pay these tolls, that goes away, is that incrementally positive? >> i'm surprised the stock dpts doesn doesn't play better. i don't like it here. i don't think you take take shot at it. >> same thing that helps them here in terms of sfer net and speeds also helps other competitors. the whom story is sle story is 37. >> coming up, nat gas pulling back significantly seeing its
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worst day in more than a month. find out if dozen dennis xwart man is buying the dip. and macys ahead of earnings. cute little guy, huh? this guy could take down your entire company. stay with me. on thursday a hamster video goes online. on friday it goes viral - a network choking phenomenon.
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over 100,000 people from around the world come to cleveland clinic for care each year. and we're ready for you with a second opinion or a same-day appointment today today today and everyday. call today, for an appointment today. time for when we take a look at am ter nlternative strategie. with much of the nation bracing for the season's first blast of cold weather, should you buy? let's bring in dennis gartman. great to see you.
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it wasn't too alonging inglong thinking what is going on with nat gas. so what do you go now. >> you had a huge run to the up side. 10 or 11 consecutive days is extended by anybody's imagination and you were getting to the point where at $4.50 per million thermal units, that was probably for lag of a better term a sporty price. and we know that there is going to be a polar vortex, we know that temperatures are dropping into single digits in parts of montana, minneapolis might get down into the low teens. it will stay down there for several days. the question is will we have a protracted and consistent period of cold weather. if you know what the weather will do, you know what natural gas prices will do. crude oil prices gave up the ghost today. coal prices gave up the coaghos today. and expectation that the polar
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vortex has not last as long as people feared put down pressure. 4.50 was extremely purchase. let it get to 3.95 and you'll have my interest as a buyer. but at 4.50, not kudos to you. it's felt that it wanted to bounce. what is the one single fact to if you had to pick one? >> i think it's the fact iran and veb wnezuela are under dure. what is really important to iran and venezuela and other oil exporters is what they need to maintain their budget taker concerns. iran probably needs about $135 to $140 per barrel.taker concerns. iran probably needs about $135 to $140 per barrel.
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they're making so many promises to their people, so many support programs. the problem that they have therefore with the w it ti at$7 you need to increase production. venezuela is in the same circumstance. even saudi arabia is in the same circumstance. everybody positions lower prices will curtail production. it may in the balkan, but it will not from iran or venezuela. >> thank, dozen mi rkthanks, de. all projects are approved the at $80 for the next three, four years. that's about where he with are, but on average for the next
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three or four years. >> so i would make the argument that they can trade better. i think oil has horrific to the up side than to the done side. and that includes an opec cut and -- >> i think this sock watock wan go higher. >> coming up next, roubini's predictions are coming true. he joins us live next. plus karen and dan going head to head in an epic street fooif fight over macy's. and you at home get to vote who is winning. let us know he if you're siding with karen the bull or dan the bear. e if you're siding
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roubini has made bullish predictions and they may have come true. take a listen. >> predicting a collapse of the dollar. and inflation rising sharply. just the opposite. i see a u.s. economy which in spite of q1, 2, 3, there will be an economy recovery. >> so what now? joining us now in a first on r. we've seen the predictions come true. oil has essentially collapsed in to a bear market and the rise of the dollar. so why did you see the economy going at this point? >> the just economy is on a cyclical growth being around 3% for the next year or so. however, are theethe rest of th will be down and the dollar appreciating. there will be some head winds.
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growth will be worsening. commodity prices are falling. and that implies the fed will start raising lates slower than otherwise expected. >> so we should not be expecting the fed rate hike in the second quarter? you're thinking it will be pushed out because of the tomorr tomorrdomino effect? >> could beu june, could be jul. it depends what happened to the rest of the world. even if growth and ennation are at the right level, the fed would like for wait just to make sure if they start 450iking with the liftoff, they will not have to be a bort it and go back to zero. otherwise they lose their credibility. so better be safe rather than
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sorry, fed will start slightly later. >> you mentioned economies being may not be strong enough to withstand what is going on. >> well, they go into quantitative hequantitate easing. a bunch of central banks will ease monetary policy from the bank of korea, probably the chinese, the swedes. so what will happen, these competitive qe wars that are proxy for currency wars will lead to the dollar strengthening further and further. so suppose the rest of the world is worse than the fed expects and suppose the dollar appreciates another 5% to 7%, at that point the impact on the
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u.s. growth and u.s. inflation could be worse that be the fedded is currently expecting. that would lead the fed to start hiking later and much more slowly. >> and for a long time for years in fablct we've been calling dr doom. didn't seem to fit anymore. what would you like to be called at some point? >> i've never been dr. doom. when things were terrible, i was the first one speaking about it. i'm dr. realist. i think every day you have to try to figure out what is right, not pez mistoptimist. >> and you have a news will theler aimed at main street. do you think main street investors are concerned or worried about global macro when they're trading?
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>> even if the united states, you're affected by what happens the rest of the world. what happens in europe, what happens in china, what happens this japan, what happens in emerging market impacts the united states through trade channel, commodity channels, financial chapel channels. so you have to understand it's complicated independent global economy. you want to diversify your portfolio. you have to choose the right fo foreign markets. whether bnd bonds, current cities. so i think it's important to have that economic and financial literacy. >> great to see you. thanks for your time.
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>> in terms what he's saying, dollar possibly appreciating 5% to 7% on a trade? >> i think in the meantime, though, i agree with that, and i think in the meantime stay away from gold. because this is a trade that will continue on get slammed. and the gold miners, while largely have outperformed, they have always been head fakes. >> there is a weird disconnect continuing gooding ing on. and we mentioned last week, you have the swiss referendum out there. gold position. they're looking at voting on taking their reserves from 8% to 20% which is about 1500 ton frs gold. it won't happen overnight, but it is something to watch. >> time for pops and drops.
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dan. >> toll brothers pre-announced better than expected. going to report december 10. i would not chase it. this is one of the higher end home builders. it's down 11% on the year. just acts awful. i thinks's anticipating possibly high are rates in the new year, but even if it doesn't get higher rate, it's telling you something. hard 30 stock. >> big pop for fire eye. >> reported third quarter, he said all the right things and it being looked like the stock was interesting. jpmorgan puts it on their focus list. i still think the stock goes higher from here. >> gm a drop. >> another recall related bad news about them ordering new ignition switches. i sold. this is the second time in, lost money again. i'm done with gm. >> pop for 3d systems. >> mixed results, but a lot of it priced in.
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stock down 15% as they talk about product delays. i think the horse is largely left the barn meaning i would not be shorting the stock. i'm neutral, but 64 down to 35. pick your spot. >> macy's gearing up for earnings. so time for a street fight. grab your phones. you at home can vote live for who you think is winning during the debate. karen is the bull, dan the bear. so care, the clock starts now. >> macy's talk about it all the time, so many things i love about it, but i think they have the best management team in the business. tremendous scale which gives them significant buying power and a stock that has expectations lowered in front of their earnings. we saw them trade down a few times. lastly, always i look at valuation. and this stock is not expensive on an absolute basis and i think we have a chart of relative
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basis of this stock. it always trades at a discount. and what we're seeing is macy's a trading below the average of itself to the s&p, so it's cheap to itself, it's cheap on an absolute basis. you have a great management team. and i feel like the bar has already been lowered. so i'm long macy's. >> the bar has been lowered because they lowered their guidance for the quarter. so this is a cheap stock trading at 13 times earnings. supposed to groi w 15 times nex year. so why is it trading at such a discount? they have embarked on a long restructuring. but they have just disappointed. heading in to what i think will be a very difficult holiday season, we've already seen very high profile misses from walmart, we've seen them from
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abercrombie, from coors. i don't care where oil is. i think it will be very challenged and heavily discounted. >> time is up. can i just say, it's already a land slide. karen's winning. but you can still vote. because what they say at the end of the desk, they might change your mind. >> i think you should vote for dan because i like dan. >> no, that's not -- >> karen is like my sister. but if you look at the chart, it's interesting. this is that other year where the stock is basically going sideways. last year was a monster year. i think the quarter will be good. i think it's north of $62. >> sideways has been $59 since february. i don't know what that cat catalyst is. sorry, dan. i have to degree with
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catalyst is. sorry, dan. i have to degree with karen.t catalyst is. sorry, dan. i have to degree with karen. cat is. sorry, dan. i have to degree with is. sorry, dan. i have to degree with karen. >> but you don't know what takes it higher. >> karen is the winner. 64%. >> i think you buy the stock in the mid-50s. >> i'm trying to help the people. >> voting is over. >> voting is not over. >> the ultimate arbiter. >> is this a beauty contest? she should have won by more then. still ahead, maker of a cancer vaccine files bankruptcy protection. could it be a warning sign for other one trick biotechs?
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i got it. now jump off the bridge. what? in 3...2...1... are you kidding me? go. right on time. right now, over 20,000 trains are running reliably. we call that predictable. thrillingly predictable. hepatitis c market gets a boost today. there is new data on liver drug. meg is live in boston with the latest developments. >> reporter: that's right, there are three pillar this is liver
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disease that wall street is focusedpatitis c and the he hepatitis w and also nasb and . nash.they're aiming to shorten treatment times. data came back and were disappointing to e invest informati ors. and would he have seen companies like arrowhead research, their stock plummeted a month ago on disappointed data.he have seen like arrowhead research, their stock plummeted a month ago on disappointed data. help tight tuts b affects more
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people than hepatitis c. >> we can do it in a safe way. there are no signs of toxici toxicities. so we're excited and a bit surprised that the har kets ma reacted the way they did. >> the third mill lar of course is nash. this is one of the biggest diseases that many people just haven't heard of. we talked with anxious under the radar french company working in the space with their chief scientific officer about the scope of the disease. >> nash is becoming a real issue and real problem in a worldwide scale. a better study peg it s at abou percent. >> and we talked about how it's different from others out there. this has been a volatile space.
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melissa. thanks. before we let you go, we want to ask you about the company filing for bankruptcy. back in march, we did have john johnson on fast money. we pressed him and take a listen to what he had to say. >> our debt is closer to 650. so the company got ahead of itself in fact when it built out because of the promise of imemnimemm immunotherapy. we have had to eliminate about 60% of the positions. we'll keep all our positions open and look at the best choices for the company. >> on that day the stock trading away $3. it's a mazing how far this company has come. is this a cautionary tale what could happen to a biotech company in terms of overshooting
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for the up side? >> yeah, and what we're hearing from analysts i spoke with a couple today about this, and this was a high flying darling of the wouldbiotech industry. people were really excited about it, but as we heard in that clip, they took on too much debt. and that's what analysts are saying. it's about the risk of biotechs betting too much to on new technology. the break through status contributed to its demise.on ne technology. the break through status contributed to its demise.n new technology. the break through status contributed to its demise. new technology. the break through status contributed to its demise. it's expensive to manufacture. and they just couldn't handle all they that had. so the question is will anybody buy this drug. the company says it will stay on the market, but analysts have a
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lot of questions. >> and one course of treatment was somewhere awround $93,000. >> only trades around 10 1/2, 11 times forward earnings. the reason why theyed wou esold stock, w4e7b a drug misses revenues, they sell first, ask questions later. but it was a tremendous quarter. they have another five or six drugs. it's a monster company and an incredible opportunity. >> a new s&p sector being headed 7. >> and 1999 was the last time they added a whole sector to the s&p 500.
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and this will be real estate investor trust. they will elevate its position from under the financials and bringing it to 11. they also say investors told us, s&p dow jones, that there are significant differences between public real estate and financial companies and real estate deserves a deck indicadicated s. they're requesting comment there wall street by february 13, 2015 on this proposed change. so it could be interesting. would we could see real estate getting its own cralassification. >> my mind is reeling. this is crazy.
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>> i proposed to my wife and gave her 2 1/2 years to accept. ultimately this is a case where you start to look at the legal structure, this is what it comes found to because of the way partnershipsed a tru ed and tru treated. >> when guy started, it was just -- >> coming up next -- billionaire investor may be taking a stake in a new retailer. dan nathan tells us what the rumor mill is saying. (vo) watching. waiting. for that moment, where right place meets right time. and when i find it- i go for it. (announcer) at scottrade, we share your passion for trading. that's why we give you the edge, with innovative charting and trading features, plus powerful mobile apps so you're
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walmart shares surged to a year to date high and if set off a fwlurry of big option bets. dan, is this about earnings? >> they pre-noins e pre-snoubs . today options ran four times. calls made up about 85%.
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but one big trade in the morning when the trade about 21,000 of the january 82 1/2 calls. two year highs. so if you're playing from a speculative stand poespoinstand would one way to do it. >> check out our live show on fridays, we have you first. come right back.
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now that the elections are finally over, it's time to get to work fixing our long-term national debt to help build a stronger economy. with a solid fiscal foundation, we can create more jobs, invest more in innovation and infrastructure, and make america more competitive, giving our kids a better future. a bipartisan solution to our long-term debt means more growth today, more opportunity tomorrow. and the time to start is now.
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time for the final trade. >> is the second large retail player in the e-commerce in china. play it on the move. >> karen will own macy's, i say wait. >> i love jamie dimon. but it's had a big recovery from
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lows. so sell out of the money calls. >> out of the great state of new mexico, kneel feel better, kevin. lions gate doing good my mission is simple, to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money." other people want to make friends. i'm just trying to make money especially


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