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tv   Squawk on the Street  CNBC  August 28, 2015 9:00am-11:01am EDT

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>> and blythe danner is playing ruth in that one. >> we have a video to show you. a man sunbathing on top of a wind turbine going viral. it was caught on camera on a drone. the man was soaking in rays on top of a 200-foot wind turbine without any safety equipment. >> join us month or tomorrow. we don't be here. "squawk on the street" is next. >> good morning and welcome to "squawk on the street." i'm sorry. that song makes me laugh a little bit. i'm here with jim cramer. i am david faber and we're live from the new york stock exchange. kwoi carl quintanilla has the day off. we end this volatile week on a potential down week.
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after yesterday's strong rally following on the heels of wednesday's strong rally, we're up about 1% on the dow. i don't like to talk about the dow but unless the s&p stronger. china did all right. shanghai up 1.8%. shenzhen up, and nikkei at a 3% gain. we were below 2 % at one point on monday in the craziness, but now we're hovering in the 1.2. crude had its best day in many years. well above $40 again. monday, we fell below $40. it has been, to say the least, a volatile week in many markets. let's get to our road map this morning, and it starts with the last trading day of this wild week. the dow coming off its biggest two-day point gain ever, not
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percentage but point gain. equity futures, slipping. carl icahn has his next target. why commodities? why now? we'll talk about a company we've talked a lot about and mr. akahcarl icahn himself, and the takeover continues. pa perrigo is saying we're not interested. i'll have more on what to expect as the companies battle it out. futures moving to the downside after the strongest two-day rally in the s&p since 2009. that's on a percentage basis. both indices up over 6% over that period. this morning, the s&p, nasdaq, and dow are actually positive for the week. positive for the week. as you were saying to joe on
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"squawk on the street," though, it doesn't necessarily engender confidence for the retail investor, which i know we care about. >> i think there's people pulling out again. i think that flash crash on monday is not talked about enough. you were deeply affected by it, because it was very clear that it was so disorderly that it was -- >> it was shocking. >> and there was something wrong. there felt like there was something wrong. we came in think 3%, and some major companies were down 20%. >> then you think what is my hard-earned money doing in something that can use that much money. ge stunned me. it was 20. >> jpmorgan. >> cvs finished up. the week it was down 30 points from where it is now. this is the kind of thing that makes it so that people say i've had it. and maybe they had it in an s&p fund. >> we've had so many of those through the years.
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have they had it or not? they had it after 2000. they enjoyed an encredibincredi up. then we lost a generation of investors. then the flash crash drove out what might have been, and then there. but quantitative funds that run algorithms, and high frequently traders run the market. >> and the capacity is not set up for it. there aren't that many people involved, and the machines can run amuck and the people who defend the machines are people who make money because of it. >> etfs are a retail product. that's where they go. >> right. they don't care -- >> that didn't work very well this week either. >> they broke down, and i think that's the enduring story of the week, not the fed. we could say mr. dudley went pragmatic, but what really happened this week was, once again, it showed if you use market orders, you sold cvs, and
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people who used market orders, over 200 don't use limit orders. why would they ever come back? five brokerage houses broke down that way. these are the kinds of things that people say i can't do cds, maybe i'll do a mutual funds but i'm not going to buy and sell stocks, and i can't blame them. if your brokerage house is down and you sold some stock at the market because you were worried about friday's close so you might have said i don't want to be in, you got, actually, lows that we haven't seen in ages. >> but if you were somebody who was on vacation and really taking a vacation and not looking at your 401 k or your investment portfolio, should you be lucky enough to have one or your i.r.a., it was a fine week, and what do you do now. >> stay the course. i don't want to default to warren buffett. i'm not warren buffett. he's unbelievable. a great piece today about how
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one of the investors is buying berkshire hathaway. i find that you have to stay the course. i was on the today show a couple of days this week. i said panic is not a strategy. there were a lot of bears who came and were in the papers who said i told you so. and then you got market orders, and then they were back. >> on twitter we saw them all. the attacks we received as discussing the underlying strength of the u.s. economy. yesterday you get a 3.7% gdp print. that was while we were on air yesterday. it seems to have sparked an we're hearing from everybody. september maybe not off the table? i don't know. >> i think that dudley has put it thoughtfully. he said, look, we're going to be pragmatic and take a look at the situation. if the chinese prop up stocks. >> yesterday and the day before, excuse me, yes. >> after we heard reports they
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weren't going to do 2345. >> that's about a 10% move in the market since they began to intervene in their market. the shanghai is stale down about 8% for the week, i believe. >> think about what they're really buying. is shanghai composite is down. the shenzhen is up nicely for the year, up very big, 26%. it's basically the nasdaq. okay, it contains 1,767 stocks. of the shenzhen, 208 are unprofitable, 742 sell for more than 45 times earnings. they're buying these stocks aggressive, the chinese government, apparently they're going to buy them. they give you a taimetable. they're going to buy them through the anniversary, war. >> i thought i missed something. speaking of japan, it's not as though they have not been
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aggressive in buying anything that's not nailed down. >> i understand. i tried to analyze the companies in the shenzhen. you google them. you google them, and you feel like, wow, okay. that company, the silvery dragon prestress met materials company and the angel ease company and the black carbon company, i don't know how well they're doing. >> really fun if we could speak mandarin and just bring "squawk on the street" over there and just do this show every morning. >> my stepson was in china last year for a long time, and he said, look, these are all -- the companies employ a lot of people. they're state-run companies. they like to have names that pop, that have great attention, but when you look at the shenzhen j it's filled with companies that sound like nasdaq
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2000 companies. when you see those kinds of p/e roche ya ratios. i get nervous because we know in 2000 you started hearing, don't worry about earning. eyeball, eyeballs, eyeball. i gave a speech at the top for goldman in london any sai said tired of hiring ophthalmologists to determine how many eyeballs companies have. >> we spoke about free support mac marijua run. >> there's an 8.5 stake in the companies and shares are undervalued. he's planning to talk with management about costs and potentially try to take a position on the board. the stock was up sharply yesterday, recall, prior to the
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disclosure by carl icahn of the stake because they cut their cap ex. if recall, free port, think about copper. they're a huge producer of copper but they also bought planes, and mcmorn, it was a deal that investors hated at the time. we've sat here for months and months talking about this company. we've looked at the balance sheet. yesterday they showed they had flexibility. sometimes you can forget they have a lot of things they can pull on, including taking cap exdoecap capex down. there's no better investor than carl icahn. when it comes to instinct, he is the man that you want to watch. now, he owns his stock higher. he owns a lot of these energy companies. he owns chesapeake, ja near, but
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he sees something. it's all his money, even though he's down big in energy, he's willing to sit there for a while and he clearly sees value. >> we had the ceo of bp on earlier. he has cut back capex in some areas. you need oil to do better. there was a short squeeze in oil better. you need copper and gold to do better. they cannot create demand. this is not a situation where you see someone come in and say we're going to cut this and do that -- >> maybe if he becomes secretary of treasury in the trump administration, he can go to china and create demand. let's not go down that road. >> i think you're dealing with a company that is uniquely levered to china, and levered to labor issues in indonesia, levered to a balance sheet that just
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because you cut capex, it doesn't produce the sheets you need. it had been well run, but the acquisition made me feel in a i'm wrong to think that they're well run. i wasn't sure if the acquisition didn't raise eyebrows itself. >> with mr. most ffit, but he's buying the equity. a billion dollars for carl icahn is not that much. he has plenty. >> he's eclectic. chesapeake is daunting, because chesapeake sold their oil and sold a lot of their -- but really sold a lot of natural gas, and it's holding out well. that turns out to be the best of the fuels. look, let's see. i can't change my view about the demand side. >> you just don't like fsx, you don't even like it with carl icahn.
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at this level, at $11. >> you taught me to be a debt guy. i am. >> so is carl. it made me think twice. >> i feel absolutely that there is value to the company. i just didn't like the acquisition. and before the acquisition, i did like it. >> value destroying acquisition. now they want him to get rid of it. >> hey, good luck. >> all right m. the latest in the takeover battle. and then stanley fischer. steve liesman will be speaking with mr. fischer. also ahead, shares of kate spade down sharply this year. could the worse be over in we'll have an interview with that ceo coming up, and let's give you one more look at futures as we have about 15 minutes to the opening bell. a lot more "squawk on the street" after this.
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for in terms of the open about 14 minutes from now. it appears we're going to be opening lower. the stocks have been up nicely for the week. if you never watched what happened on monday or tuesday,
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you'd be quite, perhaps, happy, think it was all just good and more of the same. we'll see how we actually do open as the day goes along. this morning mylan announcing a proposed insolicited bid for perrigo. they've been pursuing perrigo for months. it's planning a tendser offer by mid september. perrigo expressed confidence that the shareholders will reject what the company calls the mylan destruction transaction. the tender will be open far couple of months. perrigo is down sharply since teva went away. jim, this one is going to get nasty from here. and let me just sort of paint it out for you where we go. mylan has said it's willing to accept as little as 51% in that
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tender and close it and take control of perrigo. that is not ideal, many would say, and there's a big argument between the companies as to what you can get in terms of synergies if you only own 51%. that being said, mylan is going to use the coercive nature of that to, perhaps, get as many as people to tender in saying you don't want to be part of a minority, a minority shareholder in a company controlled by robert cory, the chairman of mylan who we talked a great deal about in the past who is nothing short of a wild man in many ways, people say. people who know him and use it as an endearing term. but certainly relies on a very liberal corporate governance structure as a result of being corporated in the netherlands. we'll see.
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the big arguments are going to be over synergies and value, of course. right now you remember perrigo already rejected 205. this deal is worth about 193. mylan has to get the stock price up. we'll see whether it's successful in doing that, but at the same time you have a lot of risk arens in the stock. a lot saying i'm not going to take the risk of being a majority shareholder. then there's a 60-day period after the initial tinder. if they get above 50% where they can try to get the rest to come in. it's very coercive. the question i have for you is given perrigo is going through this, is there another potential buyer that's been watching and waiting, and, of course, another sq is whether they'll make the decision to say we're for sale, perrigo, we're exploring alternativine
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alternatives? that would chemo -- seem to be key to making sure mylan isn't successful. >> this is a great analysis. i'm sure people are saying how is it possible that you could hurt so many people at such a big percentage. i've identified joe papa, they managed to take up tremendous share in johnson and johnson, but if you bought something that looks like pepto-bismol, that's him. the stock has gone from 50 to 180 since i've had joe on. and every time they got a very big slate of new drugs that are going generic next year. it's going to be a big year for perrigo. this feels like air gas to me. if you remember, the company just said, listen, if you just give us a chance, we're going to be able to do far better than the air products bid, and
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typically, i did not ever side with what looked like an entrenched management, but there the management -- >> there, it was the board that had that decision. in this case under irish law, it's the shareholders. it's going to be their decision. they're being urged by perrigo management not to tender. they say we're going to generate the value if we have to do it organically or inorganically. >> i don't know why they'd put themselves up for sale. this is the premier knockoff company in a time when people have said i like knockoff brands. i figured it out. my kids didn't care whether they bought the name brand or not. it's a shame. if joe loses this company, it would be a shame. >> we're going to have a lot more following that battle in the months to come, but in the minutes to come, we have cramer's mad dash as we count down to the opening bell.
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can a business have a soul? can a business be...alive? >> there's a look at futures this morning as we head toward the open. potentially lower open. charles swhab having troubles this morning. it may not be operating properly. this friday, what do we have? >> i'm an aficionado of conference calls.
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ulta salon had one that i would tell you is perfect. you have comparable store sales at 10.1%. it's a beauty parlor in the back. you can't amazon a beauty parlor. they have the high end and the low end covers in terms of all their hair products and fragrances. this was an ideal stock that was up eight last night after they reported. eight points. no new it's barely up 8%. this is your stock to watch. this was magnificent. it's better than big lots. big lots boosted the forecast. everyone is going crazy about big lots but ultra and dylan delivers, and if it can't close up, we're in a little bit more of a sick market than we think. this was textbook. >> ulta is the key that the market? >> that's right. the customer-relations management is the best i've seen in terms of e-mail to sale and
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to people going there and mary di dylan is the most unsung retail person in this country. if you ask who's doing it right, they always say mary, always. >> ulta one of many names we'll be watching including the broad number of stocks that seem to be poised to open down on this week.
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>> you're watching "squawk on the street." we've live from the financial capital of the world. the opening bell set to ring in about 40 seconds. is ulta really the key to this market or was i kind of kidding around and putting words in your mouth? >> i find when you have a benchmark of a good company and it delivers a double digit, that is something you want to watch. the other one you want to watch, citi has a great piece defending krogers. krogers also a stock i follow to measure money that that's scared
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of the international. scared. you do kroger, ulta, a big lots. you're not going to do zoey's or game stop. the game stop is going to get a hit. zoey's is disappointing because the labor cost went up. >> labor cost going up, probably a good thing for many workers. that was the opening bell. at the big board, ameritrade institutional celebrating the anniversary of the investors advisor act. pakistan celebrating the 49th independence day. you look at the realtime exchange, a lot more red on the board than green. this coming off two very positive sessions. in fact, we haven't had two
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sessions where we gained over 6% in the s&p. >> it's been a long time. six years since you saw oil go up 10% in a day. these are not good signs. when you see this level of ulta, you don't get confident. you get nervous. >> let's talk about the individual equities. oil companies had a great day yesterday too. do you think oils move up helped the broader stock market? >> very much so. when we go do our own investigating, we keep hearing the stress part of the economy is oil. there are companies that can sell futures and raise cash. there are other companies where someone might say i can sell some bach in here, people will get excited. 10% is going to -- an airline
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realizes maybe we should be hedging a little more. they airlines hedges in different ways, united airlines added to the s&p, should add that. it allows a stretched oil company to sell more futures and get a better price. that takes the near term off the term. i think oil is going to be lower longer. and the story will not be a positive one. propane, we are, we don't talk about it. we are exporting, we have so much propane we export. >> it's bbq season. a lot of people think about propoen. i'm sure they're buying it and thinking it's cheep. >> that's what we're allowed to sell overseas. >> jim, yesterday you were bringing up the point, at least wondering out loud, what are the saudis going to do? when are they going to have enough given the cost of the war they're waging in yemen that we
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don't talk a great deal about. not to mention maintaining social order to their country the way they can. the idea being that they are not -- they're going to give and say okay, we're going to cut production. do you think that that played out at all yesterday in the movement and the commodity in. >> i think there's continue wall rumors that they have to let go because they need the defense budget. if you've noticed the defense contractors, look at general dynamics. these, we're arming the world right now because we're not being the police person of the world, and i think we have to stay close to the saudis brinking. ir -- blinking. iran is going to be on. they've been saying we'll do anything necessary to get our market share back. you have to understand the refineries that we have in the united states, and the saudis, you can take our oil. we don't want to lose you as your customer. they can undercut anybody except
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for some of our producers in eagle ford which are cheaper right now, but as long as the saudis say we'll undercut anybody and send the oil around the world, you can't get oil to lift anything substantially. >> one day does not make for a change in the landscape. >> they'll either be in or sell fufs immediately. none of these companies is cash -- the number of companies that's cash flow positive right here, minimus. that's what people have to watch. >> we talked a lot about that, particularly as hedges that have previously been on roll off and then they start to look at lack of generation. >> the really the implosion of -- china. if you have balken oil, it's hard to get it someplace to get it refined. the discount.
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there's canadian oil selling for $30, sometimes $25. that heavy oil. >> sun corp. can't be doing very well. >> you don't want to own it. >> it's too early. something yesterday, free supporport. this follows yesterday's cut in capex yesterday. hard to imagine they're going to put up that much of a fight. it's got about an $11 million market value. remember how this thing has come down. carl icahn has a huge short on high yield. he's been critical of that. he has a cds to make advantage of potentially widening spreads. >> yojim cramer on a twitter,
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people say how could you still hate it? do you like something more because carl icahn is in? yes. this free port is run a little bit more like a private company. i think when you go down there, if you were 3g and you came in on fcx, i think you would find things that you'd think were excessive. >> maybe, hunting clubs, planes. carl icahn doesn't like that. it will be interesting to watch. the financials you were talking about being a key to the turn around on wednesday. i'm looking at them this morning. they're all down, as you might anticipate. the ten-year yield, let's call it hovering in the 2.13 range. >> they need the 30-year to go higher. they need the ten-year and 30-year higher and the federal fund rate to stay low so they can make money on your money
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without risk. that is why when every time you hear a fed rate, mr. bullard came out ago, a dogmatic fellow, every time you hear the rates have to go up, unless the 30-year goes higher, you know the estimates have to be cut. that's why a u.s. bank, a fabulous bank, was just crushed. crushed. and jpmorgan, we know that they're a good bank, but it doesn't matter. they're a bank. >> facebook announced that 1 billion users logged into the social network on monday. 1 billion users. >> when you speak to the ceo at pop eye's or sally smith at buffalo wild wings, last night on mad money, talking about social media is the way to go. by the way, we've all seen a very big action in buffalo wild
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wings, social media is the way to go. who is social media? google and facebook. they feel like they -- pvh telling me about all the money they make on facebook without doing anything. you link with someone who has a lot of followers, and your business goes up. you put games, there's promoting of new each week they might have a new chicken sandwich or something and they promote it on social media. with little games and stuff. it all works. dominos, such a technology experiment. people go to dominos, they go to facebook. after i left yesterday, i did some more work and tried to sharpen my 2016 number for facebook. i think $3 is conservative, and it's growing at 30%. >> remember throughout the bullish hedge fund manager i spoke to saying $10 in 2020,
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they're not even near monetizing the different things. >> think about it. there's no cost. the revenue per employee is off the charts. ruth porat will make that with google too. and they don't need to spend as much, targeting capex head count. i look at google, what an unbelievable business. you have to generate csi at facebook? do they have to do that? they don't have to do program. do they have to pay the ncaa for rights? >> no. >> they don't. what a remarkable model. >> it's a great business. >> it's great. >> they don't have to go write a check to the nhl. >> nothing. >> well, that check is not that large. >> no. nba. that's a large check. >> it is a large check. the nfl is a giant check. espn is probably thinking we wrote a lot of those big checks. >> i think they wrote the checks before google.
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and fox. look at that stock. that stock has not come back. >> no, $27.89 on that stock. down almost 25%, fox, this year. >> and they have great international products. >> they do, and the multiples in the sector, immediately now we're talking about traditional, have been crushed. viacom is trading at something like seven times. >> does time warner, does fox come back to time warner? >> i think eventually -- consolidation is without a doubt going to be a theme we're going to hear about, i think even this year, but not amongst the largest players yet, i don't believe. certainly not at time warrener fox. >> the ongoing story yesterday, people were saying disney is back. if you look at it longer term, i'm a believer in disney and bob iger. i think when the stock got to
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95, that was a great opportunity. they had taken off 27 points, and it's not like the company is doing badly. they just had some subscriber losses with a small guide down, but you have star wars. it's big. theme parks are remarkable. shanghai, we might not like it at this moment, but hearing about spend, actual people in shanghai and they're buying the nice shirts and i-phones. >> they're going to line up for years. >> i'm still a believer in what bob iger is doing and i'll bet we find out he bought a huge number of shares. >> that's a key point as well, buybacks. >> one of the things that i urge people to not sell game stop. i know the guidance was conservative. the stock is down badly but paul reigns is a good ceo. he'll be buying back stock and you'll be sell it to his buyback. that's not a smart thing to do. he had deservetive buys. one of the analysts said i think
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that guy is conservative, and mr. reigns said don't you want us to beat our numbers? we have to underpromise and overdeliver. he's a genius. he's running a company that's being compared to block buster? they have phenomenal loot business, the little things associated with games. they've had xbox one two fantastic. they're doing well and people aren't reading the conference call and they're saying guidance is bad. he's reinventing the company. i had been somewhat critical, and it turns out there's a great piece this morning that talks about the bear thesis is not panning out, and those who are selling the stock are reading the headlines and making a judgment based on the headlines. if you read the conference call, you'd be a buyer, not a seller. >> that's jim on game stop. let's get to bob on the broader market. >> good morning. and happy friday. starting to look like a friday
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in august. the least volatile day we've had on the week. we moved in a narrow range overnight, 15 points, that would have been titanic in a normal day, but considering what we had this last week, it was pretty quiet. take a look at sectors at the open. modestly to the downside, financials, tech, materials and industrials. materials just turned around. most widely held, on the mixed side. not nearly as volatile as we've seen recently. google is down a little bit. jpmorgan, pfizer also down a little bit here. take a look at the beautiful symmetry in the vix. the s&p moved 2% in 25 minutes yesterday. every short in the planet has been nuked in the last couple of days and guys who put in puts at the beginning of last week or t -- they're out of money. the vix went from 53 to 26.
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it went up and then cut in half. no wonder the shorts are scratching their heads at this point. people were puzzles earlier in the week. we had a debate about why we're getting those huge market on sale orders. these are the largest single weekly outflows on record that citi has, and this explains why we had the market on close sale imbalances. most of the market on closes is from institutional traders who are representing retail people sent notes to their mutual funds to sell part of their holdings and they sell them at the end of the day. that's when they figure out what the net asset is. it's based ochbt clon the closis now we have the answer on close issue. shanghai, the important thing is another big session in shanghai. look at the afternoon. government was buying.
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i had a discussion about how they knew the government was buying. they watch the government agencies that are known to be using big brokerage firms, cicc, if t government uses them and everybody watches. when they see big flows coming out of them, they assume the government is buying and they biggie back on top. pension funds starting to buy soon, and i think that's important. a lot of talk about china having to sell treasuries to raise cash to defend their currency, and this may be why we had a lot of pressure on treasuries this week. interest rate sensitive looks, like utilities and home builders and real estate investment trusts and regional banks were all under pressure this week as a result of the move in treasuries, and here's some of the knock on effects of trying to do something like selling treasuries if you're china. i think that's an important story. heavily shorted sectors,
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everybody said it's a short selling rally. that's lazy, but stocks that short sold did better on the week. look at u.s. steel, these are all heavily shorted. they've done better than the market. we've also seen big etfs that nobody has cared about for a while at very heavy volumes in the last couple of days. semis, emerging markets and oil service all out of favor for the longest time. big volume this time on the upside, the upside big volume is something we haven't seen in a long time in those etfs. tgif. >> yes. thank you, bob. >> oil back again, holding in. and moving the stocks and the stocks are, i know, technicals. we tend not to talk but they're horrible charts unless they can breakthrough, and if they do, people are going to be more short cover ri. i'm focussed on the shorts. there's no fundamental reason unless someone knows the saudi move. and if someone knows it, they have a great piece of
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information. that's fabulous. >> let's take a closer look at the commodity with jackie. >> reporter: hi. good morning to you and happy friday. oil traders waiting to see how the week is going to shake out for wti, saw a more than 10% move today. pretty historic there and seeing prices turning into positive territory at this point. a lot of people were expecting to see selling pressure today after a price like that. it makes a little sense. we look to the dollar as an indicator. it's trading just under $96. it's come off a long way. higher on the session. it's come off a long way in the next couple of weeks. now we're flat lining at this point. i will say biaker hughes going o be out. see if we add rigs again this week. maybe we'll go back to the fundamental story, the supply and demand, but right now it appears oil prices are moving along with equities and they're
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tentative. they want to see how the friday session is going to shake out. i want to mention retail gas prices. triple a saying the national average is 2 .51. it's down from 2.63 a week ago. some areas may be a little higher than others, but the prices have come down at the pump, almost at the 2 -- 2 $.50 range. >> understand that the terms that the halliburton is offering are so generous that you pretty much have to drill. you don't have to pay right now, and that's very unusual. people who keep thinking the rig count is going to drop, they don't understand to get can a rig is inexpensive, and they need cash flow. you're not going to see a cessation in rig drop. >> because the terms are so
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generous. >> the icoming up, you'll want hear what stanley fischer is going to tell steve liesman. we'll have the interview coming up. ♪ no student's ever been the king of the campus on day one. but you're armed with a roomy new jansport backpack, a powerful new dell 2-in-1 laptop, and durable new stellar notebooks, so you're walking the halls with varsity level swagger. that's what we call that new gear feeling. you left this on the bus...
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>> there it is. free port is up the most. after hours, they hit 12 yesterday after carl icahn filed. bank of america isn't having a good day. >> the wrong yield curve. look at sprint. it's been up since the intery interview. ledger last night, sprint is putting out some data that was so good for sprint. he went crazy. he cursed. i wouldn't tell him not to curse. >> you shouldn't. >> you don't have to curse. >> no need to curse. that's what i tell my kids. but y new jansport backpack, a powerful new dell 2-in-1 laptop,
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time for stop trading with jim. >> four firms came out today and said don't worry about dollar general's quarter. it's down again today. if you are disappointed in retail, you are so hated that there's almost no comeback. i'm thinking about kill yam
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sono sonoma. macy's came down. dollar tree reports next week. did dollar tree start doing better than dollar general? >> the merger with family dollar. >> the dollar stores have been a good theme. >> they have. >> what's tonight on mad money? >> i spent all day working on this game plan for next week. i have to tell you, unfortunately, a lot of it's going to happen? jackson hole, but fortunately we have steve liesman and stanley fischer. >> next week should be quiet, maybe? >> i hope so. it's usually the most quiet week of the year, david. >> usually. >> all right. have a good one. i'm not hear. >> you too, buddy. >> coming up, breaking news on consumer sentiment, and, of course, markets that are in the red this morning. we're back on "squawk on the street" after this.
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>> good morning. welcome back to "squawk on the street." i'm david faber. now along with sara eisen and simon hobbs. we're live at the new york stock exchange. carl quintanilla has the day off. let's give you a look at the markets this morning. of course, after quite a week, you can see things have quieted quite a bit. but the s&p, i'm going to almost call it flat. the dow is down ever so slightly. crude was up dramatically yesterday. 10% move, and it's adding a bit. you can see the nasdaq ever so slightly in positive territory. >> let's send it to tjm institutional services for breaking news. >> our second round of consumer data today. we have the michigan sentiment number, and it's not good. we were expecting 93. we got 91.9 from last month's 92.9. the current condition index is 105.1 which is also a bit of a disappointment. last time it was 107.1.
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the stock market had been staging a decent rally coming into this number, and it's lost a few ticks. the s&p futures are down 8. what strikes me as interesting is in times of high volatility, good news is good news, and bad news is bad news. from a market standpoint and a broader picture, i think if the market has a down day but it's an orderly down day, i think they're viewing that as a market positive because we can maybe suck volatility out and get a little bit of confident out. right now s&ps are down about 7 or 8. a little bit negative. >> just to recap, consumer confident comes through at 91.9. that is a deterioration on last month when we thought that, actually, it would improve. the university of michigan data has added importance fortunate fed after bill dudley made it clear 48 hours that this would
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be their first glimpse of how extreme volatility market over china could suppress things here making a september rate hike, in his words, less compelling. >> my understanding is they survey it close to when they publish it. it will be interesting to look at that report, and compare it to the recent conference board readings, the consumer confidence. >> of course, it takes on a little more importance. let's look at the market reaction. dow down about 50 points. not much. s&p 500 down about 2.5 points and the nasdaq lower a bit as well. let's bring in head of u.s. equity trading at rbc and a chief investment strategist at wells fargo. jim, are we making too much of every single data release with the obsession of when the fed is going to raise or do you look at the weaker consumer confidence number and raise a question about whether september is realistic? >> well, i don't think there's much change in the confidence
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number. i mean, that could be a statistically pucfluke, if you will. it stayed pretty close to levels in previous months. there doesn't seem to be much imimprarkts if at all. i don't know if the numbers are going to mean a lot. the only number that might mean a lot is the jobs number coming up. i really think if the numbers continue the trend they've been on which is pretty good buy and large, i think it's going to come down to the markets. is the financial situation stabilized? if it has, they go. if it's still very volatile in the financial markets, regardless of the numbers, i think they pause and wait to see if things settle down. >> ryan, ending the week with a women per. after crazy swings in the dow this week, is that it? is the volatility over? did the market get that out of its system in are you bracing for for? >> i don't think it's over. i think this is exactly what we
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want to see on a friday. we saw monday extreme overreaction. we closed monday with the s&p trading 4.5 standard deviations below the 50-day moving average. it's essentially unheard of. tuesday a good head fake. wednesday and thursday constructive. the 1985 level on the s&p 500 is going to be key. that represents the 50% retracement from the decline that started last week. i think this is exactly what we're looking for in terms of lower volatility, lower price moves and hopefully we can close somewhere around here and call it a week. >> jim, many people will make a lot during the course of the day of the much-feared death cross. this is the idea that the 50 of day moving average has crossed the 200 day moving average on the s&p 500 basically as a pu s function of the market moving so fast and so rapidly. >> i think there's a lot of
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technical th technical things that people are looking at. that's one. ryan pointed out another one. we've got the lows put in on monday. what we're doing now and will be probably for the foreseeable future here is trade less on data and information and more on technicals and emotion, here for a period of time until we can stabilize the vix. i don't put special significance on that death cross over other ones. >> let me ask you another question. as we've repriced and we have. we're still down, the s&p is still down 5 %, 6%, for august overall. as we've repriced and this is what people who sell stock markets are telling everybody, now is the perfect time to buy because things are cheaper and we've had the blowoff everybody was waiting for. do you agree with that or do you say as others will, this is a symptom of much bigger things beginning to breakthrough and actually the market is more dangerous as a result of august? we now see the whites of their eyes, in many senses? >> i think we have further to
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go. i would say that. my guess is that one doesn't know. i think that the thing that really brought this market down was basically a market that was overvalued, that had developed investor sentiment that became too complacent, and i think we have to correct those excesses before we can sustain another run. if we just go right back up to highs, simon, i don't think we've done anything. so i kind of think we need, maybe so bring in the buy and the dip moneys. maybe that will continue the next few weeks, and maybe redisappoint everybody this time and really scare people out, maybe below 1800 where we have complete capitulation and we'll see a flight to the quality treasury and a flight to gold and a flight to the dollar which we haven't seen yet and maybe that's a sustained base that we can make another run from. i don't think it's over. >> that's an important point that hasn't been made enough.
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as the head of u.s. trading at ubs, do you take comfort in the fact that we haven't seen a massive rush into government bonds or gold or the u.s. dollar or the japanese yen? it's not a cross asset after of risk fear move. >> this was all emotions, in our opinion. monday, like i said earlier, extreme overreaction, and you need to step back and think. a lot of the selling like on monday tends to be a panic sell. if you step back and look at the u.s. situation, we'll be in one of the better spots around the world than anybody else right now. so the fundamentals don't support, in my view, us to trade, to see 1800, to shake that fear out. i think if we can be constructive here, we see lower volatility and row is and lower volume. it's going to be a process. we don't want to see this happen in one or two days but gradually speaking, i think fundamentals
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don't support us trading that well, at least in the u.s. >> what are you seeing in terms of the flows, institutional buying? how many people are coming in and buying this debt this week? >> that's a good point. you want to make sure, one thing that probably jim and i will agree on, we don't want to see the rally sustained by short buying. you want to see real buying. if you look at the last couple of days, consumer discretionary, health care, technology, some of the names that got absolutely, completely price dislocated on the monday, have come back and led in a big way. energy is another one to watch as we watch wti. 40 seems to be the line and we seem to be trading in line with equities. as long as we can see some of those things -- >> hang on. one of the major factors yesterday was the major move on equity. surely the move on energy was short-covering yesterday. >> it could be. and you know what, simon?
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i think right around this level, it's absolutely more of a tech tall tra cal trade. i'm saying if we can sustain this going forward, energy could be one of the sectors along with consumer discretionary, tech, health care, that could be a leader going forward. >> it's a leader right now. jim, i think we have to leave it there. >> okay. >> we'll leave it there with energy making a move higher thank you. ryan larson and jim paulson. coming up later, you can't miss this one. federal reserve vice chairman, stanley fischer will be live on cnbc an exclusive interview. everyone wants to know whether the fed is going to raise rates in september and how they are looking at this brutal week in global equities. the slow down in china and much more. steve liesman talks. >> that was a big get. we were expecting him to talk on saturday. that was the big speech, and
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presumably, it would be disingenuous to see what you're not going to see on saturday. we get it during market hours. >> please a plain-spoken guy. >> they must have put together a message. >> it could be a market moving interview. that's coming up on squawk alley. >> i'm not involved but i'm going to be listening closely. >> maybe a special tonight at 7:00 as well. >> up next on the program, it's been a roller coaster week for oil as well as stocks, falling to a low of 47.75, and bouncing back to a high of 43.46 this morning. where does it go from here? it plumps skin cells with intense hydration and locks it in.
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global head of research. good morning. >> what was yesterday? what did you see yesterday in. >> well, we saw a move across. it wasn't the price that moved up. it was all contract prices across the structure of the market. it was a very surprising move, and as you pointed out, the biggest move in years in terms of percentage apreesh ratipreci. the last thing i can think that resembled this move is the first greek debt pcrisis in 2012, we had a big bounce in europe on the back of europe. we had a big bounce in oil. that's the last time i remember a big bounce like that. there was no big monews yesterd.
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>> did it, has it given you pause for thought? are you like, hang on, i might have got this wrong. maybe oil is heading higher here? >> as you know, we've been bearish for the last three months or so on the back of the end of the driving season, weaker growth picture for china, and importantly, the iranian barrels which are scheduled to go online over the next few months. we think going into winter, we are going to see a bit of a relief rally, and the reason is simple. up by 1 million barrels a day from summer to winter, and they are demanding more oil. today we're trading the october contract. we have a couple more weeks of the october contract on the screen. once we get into november and december, refineries will be looking for oil and this means that we'll have a stronger bid. we're a little more sanguine
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about the market here. >> i think the market is about a third of what we'd expect. those that chased the bounce are doing well and this can be sustained? >> i think the market is probably starting to stabilize. i'm not sure if we'll relapse back down but i don't see prices heading into the low 30s or the 20s as some other analysts have suggested. i think the world economic picture is not that negative. certainly, there are big head winds for china, and i think over the course of the next year or two, chinese u.n. weakness will not help the oil market, but wouldn't go as far as saying china is going to have to appreciate again. if that was to happen, oil could get lower but the best case is that emerging market growth holds up this level and maybe picks up into year end on increased monetary and potentially fiscal tim yuls,
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simon. >> well, it sounds like what you're painting is a pretty solid demand picture. at this point, is it going to take some sort of meaningful change in the supply outlook for you to revise your target. >> we've always been -- our end quarter target is right around where we are. from there on we could see a $7 to $10 move up to year end. we've always had a bullish view to year end, because you have the winter demand season factors. you have the potential stimulus on the ends, and importantly, u.s. production is declining steeply. let's not forget, we are declining at a rate of 100,000 barrels a day because of the collapse in the recount that happened at the end of the last year. all the factors are going to provide good support to prices into the end of the year. >> and heading into the end of the year, what else will work
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with your hat on this multiasset strategy head? >> obviously, i think if oil finds the floor and we get a bit of a are leaf, a lot of assets are going to be repriced. the bigger question is whether the head wind in china are long-lasting as they seem to be, and then we end up in a continuation of an emerging market bear trend. but overall, i think, again -- >> hang on. hang on. don't ask questions unless you're going to answer them. do you think that will happen? >> look, i think china's growth is slowing down, and the question really is how fast does the chinese currency -- how fast does chinese fiscal and monetary policy have to adjust to the unfolding developments? we don't have a great read on it right now to be honest. it's really hard to say what's going to happen in china in the
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next three months. the big macro data is not terrible, but if you look at the micro or mac torfactory orders, don't look great. it's hard to read at this point. data dependent, but things do not feel great in china right now. >> okay. have a good weekend, sir. thank you for your time. a huge move on oil. >> you scared me there with that question. >> why? >> you were very strict. >> that's your job. you're allowed to ask questions. the guests answer questions. it's called cable television. it's simple. >> you don't want to miss, when will we see a rate hike. tune if for an interview with stanley fischer. take a look at these crazy huge swings in the market this week ending with a wimper with the dow down 54 points but traveling
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>> good morning. the ceo of ashley madison is resigning. the parent company of ashley madison which is the dating site who's motto is life is short, have an affair. it was hacked and all the data from that site was made public by hackers. the company that owns it is avid life media. they say that they are actively cooperating with international law enforcement in an effort to make those who are responsible to justice. but under pressure, it looks like the ceo, effective immediately will be stepping down at the ceo of ashley madison. >> not such a surprise, i guess. what a nightmare. >> i think we could have seen this coming. i'll see you in a few minutes for a news update. >> describing this biweek's mart move as a roller coaster is an
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understatement. we have more on what we've experienced this week. >> reporter: we've gone so far so fast in the past week or so. we've seen rapid moves of stocks and we're attacking some of the losses we got. and we got a nice $0.38 pop of price in oil. let's look at the kind of calm relative calm that we're seeing in today's trade so far. that could change by the time the afternoon comes around. overall, to back friday, the big 531 point drop followed by the 1,000 point intraday drop and a 200 on tuesday only to see a 619 point gain on thursday and a 370 point gain on thursday. these are the two biggest point gains in terms of back to back point gains in history. and they're some of the biggest
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gains since the phenomenal crisis. if you'd add up all the mini steps, all mini moves intraday up and down, we've gone over 10,000 points or steps in the dow so far. we'll see how it plays out today. on the oil side, a similar type story. on the macro commodity front, oil is up today by about 38, $0.40 but down $0.87 fwti. only the pap by $1.07 and the huge 10% up move for oil and tacking on gains for today. the oil price very volatile right now. energy stocks volatile. today is going to cap off a huge week of market moves. we'll see how they pan out as we get to the afternoon part of the day. >> i guess hurricane erika part of that as well. despite the market turmoil, some of the street east biggest investors are finding bargains. what are they buying? jim stewart has been talking to many of them.
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he'll join us after this break. g of the campus on day one. but you're armed with a roomy new jansport backpack, a powerful new dell 2-in-1 laptop, and durable new stellar notebooks, so you're walking the halls with varsity level swagger. that's what we call that new gear feeling. you left this on the bus... get it at the place with the experts to get you the right gear. office depot officemax. gear up for school. gear up for great. having a perfectly nice day, when out of nowhere a pick-up truck slams into your brand new car. one second it wasn't there and the next second...boom, you had your first accident. now you have to make your first claim. so you talk to your insurance company and...boom,
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>> good morning, everyone. here is your news update at this hour. senator tom carper of delaware
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becoming the latest to support the iran nuclear deal. he called it a good deal for america and the allies and it beats war with iran. florida governor declaring a state of energy in the for the arrival of tropical storm erika. it's expected to hit the southern coast on monday. the storm brought 15 inches of rain yesterday on a caribbean island. at least four people were killed in landslides. many others missing. rescue crews sent out to search for the missing and injured. a new round of firing by pakistani troops. those injured were taken to a nearby hospital. many residents in the area have fled that region and donald rump calling himself the king of the tax code on msnbc morning joe. he said the current tax code is too complicated and plans on releasing his plan to simplify
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it next month. stay tuned for that. that's our news update this hour. let's get back to "squawk on the street." >> thank you, sue. welcome back to "squawk on the street." you're looking at the dow jones industrial arch, the s&p 500 and the nasdaq. our next guess says seasoned money managers are searching for stock bargains. read your piece in the times today. i couldn't help but think how many times you sat here and said valuations are frosty. they're historically above average. we need a good, healthy correction. did we just get that? >> we got a correction, healthy or not. i think it is healthy, and anybody who's been here knows i've been saying for a long time, corrections are normal. they can be healthy.
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stocks go up. they go down. if they go up all the time, we're setting ourselves up for an even bigger fall. but i tried to be objective. this week i picked out some of the funds that have done the best over the last year. pretty treacherous year. i called them up and said what are you doing and virtually all of them reinforced the same idea. they were welcoming the correction. bill of the value fund was saying for this market to keep going on, we need something like this to happen. did we need it to happen in just two days? it was really fast and violent, but repoint ud out that fast corrections are easier to stomach than the slow grind, and i think the speed of it, the depth of it, the way it's bounced back is probably a good sign. >> can i for the record push back. we seem to be showing a lot of shots of where we've traded for the week. this is an august phenomenon. for the month, we're down 5% or
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6%. it wasn't just two days. there are bigger questions here, jim. >> well, and a lot of stock groups, individual stocks have been grinding down for a long time for reasons that i think we've all talked on the. you know, slowing demand for commodities, the china problems but if you look at the plunge that began last friday and continued into monday and then the selloff on monday, this was so indiscriminate. everything went down. that was another thing the managers were pointing out. there was no intelligent thought behind this. i mean, whatever is going on, it is not going to affect every geography and every stock sector and every individual company the same way, and yet, everything was down across the board. it also looked like people who were acting first and thinking later. we get these moments when markets are not rational or not efficient efficient. those are almost always buying opportunities.
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>> what are they buying. >> these are value investors. value has done better over the last year. they're looking for classic value stocks. bill miller at the leg basin opportunity fund. it's been on a roll for years. he's been focusing on the home builders. completely unaffected by what's going on in china except for the fact that they benefit by low commodity prices. and there's a huge population in this country of young people who are in the process of household formation who want to buy houses. they don't own stocks. they're saving their money for a down payment so they're benefitting. this is all good for the home building sector. the airlines, bill miller, he's buying there. he was also sniffing around twitter, which i thought was interesting. it leaked back in the recovery. bill speed was looking at american express and buying news
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corp. they were looking for values. i also talked to international people. we're not in a correction anymore in the u.s., but overseas, emerging markets are still really cheap. china. >> maybe they're cheap for a good reason is the fear. >> that's the fear. they're there for a reason, but if you're a long term investor, there are bargains around the world. >> in fairness, i would hope that mutual fund managers were optimistic. that's what they do. they buy stocks. they're all in types of people. but just to push back. there were other people who were scared by what happened. they feel it's a symptom of something shas much bigger that people might lose confidence in central banks. and what's happened this week is that the fed looks to be delaying interest rates. you've got the ecb, the talk there is they will turn dovish again, possibly expending kwe, and you have the chinese going further into the market.
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the central plankbank's respons to go deeper and deeper. that's symptomic of something that's wrong for people and maybe long term stocks should stay. >> i don't know that they're going to go up. what we know for certain is they're cheaper today than they were even a week ago. i've also looked at research, that if you bought at markets tops and held off long enough, you do better in stocks than any other asset class. if you need the money tomorrow, you should not be in stocks in the first place. as a counter measure, i talk to the people at alpha simplex, they're market timers. they've ratcheted down. they see risks are more elevated based on their computer models but they're still 75% committed to the market. they haven't gone to syria market exposure. they're still confident over the long-term in stocks.
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and i think people have to be patient. they have to look ahead, and in a lot of the static, they have to tune out. >> it looks like you've found someone that is buying the weakness in china which is interesting. >> this was the johambro, they're international funds have done well. no one has done well in emerging markets but comparatively speaking they've done well. and they pointed out the market multiple got down to about 9 this week. that's where it was after the lehman collapse. that's pricing in a lot of bad news from china, and a lot of the big chinese companies have exposure to other parts of the world, especially the united states. a lot of them are at the head of the food chain in the technology sector where the ultimate consumers are in the u.s. and the u.s. consumer is looking good. they're also seeing bargains in the technology sector and other parts of asia.
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they're not interested in the commodity exporting nations like brazil, south africa, some of these, but they're seeing screaming bargains in china. >> yeah. great actionable column. >> thank you. >> jim, good to see you and have you talking markets. >> ten years after hurricane katrina, thousands of people, incredibly are still unable to return home. the costliest disaster is also the worst housing disaster affecting more than 1 million homes on the gulf coast. in new orleans alone, homes damaged and destroyed and floods that followed. a horschrible situation made wo by a program that was supposed to ease the problem. today we're back in new orleans. >> reporter: simon, the program is called the road home program.
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it's the largest housing construction program in u.s. history. it's funneled through the state. it's allowed 130,000 homeowners to rebuild. but the lower ninth ward, the program has failed here. the population here before the storm was more than 14,000 in this neighborhood. now according to latest figures it's fewer than 3,000. >> at least 200 families are still trying to get a home. our challenge is trying to get the funding that's in the road home program that's available for them out the door to them. >> reporter: we first investigated the road home program in 2007. we found massive bureaucratic log jams funding formulas that made it impossible for people to rebuild. we met melanie, he was the founder of the citizen's road home action team or chat. remarkab remarkably, she's still at it. >> there are many residents,
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homeowners who didn't come back, and partly, that's because of the unfairness of the road home program. >> reporter: even in the early days, after the storm, what people were worried about was what they call the jack lantern effect. that's an empty lot here, a home here, a foundation there. and here in the lower ninth ward, that's exactly what has happened. other places doing better, but it's a scattered, uneven recovery, and that's a problem. back to you guys. >> scott, thank you very much for that piece of the story. reporting live on the tenth anniversary of hurricane katrina. when we come back, several luxury brands are soring but kate spade is down. hear from the ceo in an exclusive. and later, an exclusive interview with stanley fischer. as we go to break, take a look at the dow today. the dow is down 56 points.
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travelers, walmart, pfizer, and cisco bringing up the rear. we'll be right back. innovating. ritrade, e and apparently, they also love stickers. what's up with these things, victor? we decided to give ourselves stickers for each feature we release. we read about 10,000 suggestions a week to create features that as traders we'd want to use, like social signals, a tool that uses social media to help with research. 10,000 suggestions. who reads all those? he does. for all the confidence you need. td ameritrade. you got this. hi mi'm raph. tom. my name is anne. i'm one of the real live attorneys you can talk to through legalzoom. don't let unanswered legal questions hold you up, because we're here, we're here, and we've got your back. legalzoom. legal help is here.
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>> an interesting season could hold the key to the energy trade. more "squawk on the street" straight ahead. [ piercing sound ] daddy! lets play! sorry kids. feeling dead on your feet? i've been on my feet all day. dr. scholl's massaging gel insoles have a unique gel wave design for outrageous comfort that helps you feel more energized. dr. scholl's. feel the energy!
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retail a big focus. luxury stocks being hit mike coach, tiffany, and michael k s kors. kate spade fell more than 40 % in the last year alone despite strong sales numbers in the most recent quarter. i had a chance to sit down with the ceo of kate spade and i asked about the expansion of new products for children and home and other lifestyle products but given all the other volatility, we had to start with china. >> in china, where we've --
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we're still developing that business, we feel really good. still seeing dig strong double digit comps in that marketplace, and we're only at the tip of the iceberg there. >> to so the global slow down that everyone is worried about, are you saying you're not seeing it really in your geographical spots? >> what's great about our business is we have a diverse business model. it's diverse across two real ax axes. one is product categories. we have a full lifestyle brand with many categories. over a dozen categories of products, but also in terms of geographies. as a business in 27 regions around the world, that helps us whether changes in certain parts of the business are in a product category or if it's in a particular region. it allows for us to really have an incredibly stable and sustainable growth projection. >> i want to talk about the
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project side. got a chance to see home goods and baby sections. why are you expanding there? >> one of the things that's important for everyone to understand about kate spade and company is that we have a really differentiated business model, and one of the key different ya or thes is that we are truly a global lifestyle brand. we've gone from a handbag and small leather good company. we'll also have anchored there, but we're entering new product categories, most recently children and home. >> when you talk about the lifestyle brand, sometimes you get lumped in with michael kors and coach, you you've talked about ralph lauren as a model. >> as a business analog, we're not the same brands, but if you look at them as a business analog, how they grew their business, truly becoming a lifestyle brand, consistent execution from a global perspective, engage in the consumers in a really authentic
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way, that's something that's extremely important to us, and something that we think they've executed really well. and, again, when you look at points of differentiation of our brand versus those in our peer set, we are really different, and being a lifestyle brand is one of those. >> i have to say, it is unusual to see double digit comps in retail. that's what you saw in the last quarter. >> it is. >> is it sustainable, and is there something wall street is missing when you look at the stock. >> we believe it's sustainable. and we absolutely feel it's sustainable. we're excited about where our business is today. and i think as i said earlier, what is important that the message that's out there is, that we are all, one size does not fit all. we are a business with a differentiated business model. that's what's going to lead -- we want to be talked about a growth story not just next year
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but five and ten years from now. we want to be talking about kate spade and company as a great growth company. >> is there a misconception about your brand out there on wall street? >> i think it's easy to lump brands and businesses together as a short hand for what's happening in the industry. and that's why i think it's important that people understand how we're different from other brands in our space. >> that was the ceo of kate spade making here that he does not want to be a michael kors or coach. the three get in there grouped together and when you look at some of the valuations, wall street isn't presuming that it is. kate spade is trading in the 30s times earnings, while michael kors is trading less tlan around ten times. >> it's a differentiated lifestyle brand i think was the message. >> right. and he's taking it into home and baby, and he's actually getting rid of the jack spade brand and
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the saturday's brand. >> it's still about handbags, right? >> 70% of the revenue is about handbags. that's the model. that's where they start, the platform, but he wants to shift the revenue mix to get it higher toward other categories. they've found a committed consumer, knowing many women who like the brand. >> they always talk about consistent execution, but the only thing consistent in this industry is the inconsistency over time. anyone. >> and i asked him about that. what he could say, in his words, which is retail ceo thing to say, you have to stay authentic. you have to keep in mind your customer, keep surprising them and keep kinconsistent. they've managed to keep up the growth. one reason the stock is under sprsh because it's hard for them to get a comparison of sales
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because they're in the process of shutting brands. >> up next, what better way to wrap up a crazy week for the markets than art cashin? he'll join us live at post nine when we come back. a number. ery auto insus but not every insurance company understands the life behind it. those who have served our nation. have earned the very best service in return. ♪ usaa. we know what it means to serve. get an auto insurance quote and see why 92% of our members plan to stay for life.
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40 minutes on cnbc and what may arguably be the event of the session. stanley fischer will be interviewed by steve liesman. vice chairman of the federal reserve due to speak there tomorrow but he will appear on cnbc exclusively in advance of that. art cashin is with us. could seriously move the markets. this is the one we're waiting for. >> he certainly could. don't forget his backdrop is that he wants to keep everybody still guessing so i think he's going to do whatever he can to leave room for a possible move. >> one of the narratives that you kept bringing to the table was that fischer had sent everybody out to talk up the prospects of a september rate hike. clearly they have walked back from that. >> well, not necessarily him. >> right. >> but the others, it's less
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compelling. nobody's really taken it completely off the board. in fact, if you look at the fed fund futures, they're keeping some risk of it still about so i think fischer will try and do that. i think he will probably tell steve that they are aware of what's going on around them but they are really still data-driven. i think he will try to keep the did door open. >> wti crude trading above $45 a barrel, another boost on top of yesterday's nearly 10% rally. this is significant. why aren't stocks rallying? >> we have a little bit of a drag here. we had that surprise rebound late yesterday that was over $1 billion to buy on the market at the close. and so i think you're getting a little bit of adjustment and payback. i think that caught a lot of people by surprise. the market had rolled over and i think there was a feeling that it was going to close a bit
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flatter and all of a sudden we got a big boost. >> i have gone a very long time without talking about the u.s. dollar because the action this week is really in the stock market. stocks stole the show this week. but in terms of other assets, if you look at the dollar which has rebounded from the lows that we saw on monday, and treasuries where yields stay above 2% on the ten-year, what is that telling you in terms of the implications for stocks? >> well, it certainly is telling us that they're not ready to take the rate hike completely off. the strength in the dollar could theoretically be people waiting to see if they're going to hike rates. the other thing, you can't forget what else is going on. there has been some talk out of the ecb that almost made it sound like they were going to add a qe on top -- >> those are central banks that unlike china, the market trusts and they believe. >> can i point out notes are
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beginning to emerge. actually on thursday they will sound more dovish. they will talk about potentially qe in europe being extended or the pace of purchases, accelerated. talk only, but still it could move the market. >> it certainly could. this market is tremendously sensitive. there's no bigger topic around as what will the fed and the other central banks do. and how will that begin to move things along. i mean, it's obvious china is not going to let their market go down. it was interesting to see shanghai get rescued but hong kong wound up down anyway. >> in summation for the week, is this it for now when you have a calm day like today? are we able to say potentially we have bottomed here? >> yes, but it's usually not a single day. i mean, there are the bottoms, if you would, but they are much rarer than people think. i think we may have a lot more backing and filling going on as we move into next week. you will have the payroll
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number, then the three-day weekend coming up. >> one of the quietest weeks of the year usually, next week. >> sounds dangerous to me. >> be careful what you wish for. >> you think it will be? revert to form or not? >> i would think it should, certainly we have had people start deserting the floor already for a non-three day weekend. i think the end of august and the beginning of september, kids, school, whatever, i know traditionally it's skeleton crews everywhere. lot of exciting stuff going on. >> yes, there is. >> david and i are both going on vacation. >> nice to see you. >> have a great weekend. >> art cashin. let's send it over to kayla tausche. >> we have a big hour coming up for you. the interview of the morning, the fed's number two, stan fischer, will sit down with steve liesman and it is the interview that you cannot afford to miss. plus investors are catching their breath after a wild ride
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in the markets this week. we will tell you where you can find value right now. and forget monthly active users. facebook said one billion people logged in to that platform just yesterday. we will get thoughts on where growth is for facebook next. and a special cohost. you don't want to miss it. that's next on "squawk alley." [ male announcer ] eligible for medicare?
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good morning. it is 8:00 a.m. at facebook headquarters in menlo park, 11:00 a.m. on wall street. "squawk alley" is live. >> good friday morning. thanks for joining us on "squawk alley." with me for the hour, andrew ross-sorkin. what a treat to have you here at post nine. of course we have to begin with the markets, currently down slightly on this final


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