tv Worldwide Exchange CNBC May 31, 2016 5:00am-6:01am EDT
good morning. sell in may and go away? maybe, not so fast. we'll get you ready for the month's final trading session straight ahead. a developing story -- sumner redstone drama unfolds. viacom board members vow to fight back. the latest coming up. steph curry and golden state beat the thunder to set up a finals rematch with the cleveland cavaliers. "worldwide exchange" begins right now. ♪ honey i'm good very good morning and a warm
welcome to "worldwide exchange" on cnbc. i'm wilfred frost joined by dee basin in for sara eisen. >> good morning. >> it's great to reunite for the next few days while sara is enjoying a honeymoon. very good congratulations to her and her new husband. let's bring you up to speed on the markets this morning. futures right now pointing to a slightly positive open. but this does of course come on the back of strong gains. 2% gains and over 3% gains for the nasdaq. only just, though, in the final trading it looks like we will hold on to gains for may. the dow called higher by 3. nasdaq as well. 1.875, near the top of the range in recent week which is has been
1.7 to 1.9. 1.4% on tenhe ten-year. the dow is up on its best streak since five straight winning months ending in june 2014. six out of ten s&p sectors positive led by tech which is up by more than 5%. check out the month-to-date returns the dow is up 0.6%. the s&p higher by 1.6%. and the nasdaq has jumped more than 3%. wilf, if you had sold in may and went away -- >> we have had decent gains. we've also had it in the dollar. we've also had it in oil. those three united gains don't often hold for that long. will one of these break down the report. interestingly, as you mentioned the sector performances. only one sector remains in the
red as a year as a whole, that's the banks. >> and could that be sort of the sector to watch over the summer. we did a study a few weeks ago that showed a deeper more consistent trough for summer trading has been june 15th to october 15th. those are better dates to actually step out of the markets if you go by that, you may want to stay in for 15 days and then leave. that's just history. things could be different this time around. >> this is a check of our global markets this morning. asia overnight, better than expected economic data out of japan. factory output rising 0.3 in april. japan's household declined year on year. the nikkei up 1%. hong kong up about 0.9. shanghai did very well on stories that they're getting closer to joining international benchmarks up 3.3%. asia as a whole have been pretty strong over the last week with
u.s. equities. europe, too, strong over the last week. this morning down about .33%. german retail sales dropped. labor market data was decent. and eurozone wide money supply was robust. but down about .33%. we're watching oil markets closely. they're watching an opec meeting on thursday. crude prices have nearly doubled after hitting three-year lows this winter. briefly trade be about 50 bucks last week. and broader markets a quick look at the u.s. dollar. the broader index turning in another positive week. four weeks in a row for gains of the u.s. dollar. just a reminder that we're no longer in that softer environment. much softer than a year ago. four weeks of gains for the broader index. this morning, not too much movement. the biggest move is the
australian dollar. factors in the dollar, elsewhere only moves about 0.11%. a quick look at gold prices as well which this morning is suffering by 1213. it may be a holiday shortened trading week but there's still plenty of data squeezed into the next four days. look for personal income, the case-shiller home price index. as well as chicago pmi and consumer confidence for may. and wednesday, we got ism manufacturing and the beige book. thursday, adp employment report. friday, it is the big one, non-farm payrolls along with ism services. that will be a big one. >> absolutely. i think it's interesting that the last couple weeks very much focused on fed speak as opposed to the data. there's been some data, but this week, back on the data side with the jobs numbers.
>> with the expectations, it seems it just rose overnight with yellen making the promise that she did, that the fed is justify jumping. >> absolutely. the hike expectation coming forward, at least one this year, possibly two. when they will start will be the key. that jobs number will be important. there is also some more fed speak, of course, and speculation will move markets. james bullard speaking at a conference in seoul. he said labor markets appear to be, quote, well prepared for a hike but didn't specify a date for the move. stocks to watch, jazz pharma is buying celator for $1.5 billion. earlier this year, celator announced the treatment for
leukemia. and the coo of airbus said a slowdown is normal following years of extremely strong orders. the company has only secured 92 orders through the first months of 2016. as long as they match deliveries, airbus will be content. and sun cor operations are expects to resume following massive wildfires in the area. more stocks to watch. air france-klm in talks to sell catering unit. it's worth about $520 million. it's stepping up global expansion to buy swiss airline company gate for $1.5 billion. reuters reports several chinese and japanese suitors expressing interest in cit units.
the first round bids for the releasing arm which owns a fleet of 350 planes are due in june. >> the ceo of singapore's noble group use of ali reza has resigned. noble shares are down 75% since then. they are up, though, today, 5.3%. a five-year battle between oracle and hp heads to court opening on a trial that focuses on oracle's alleged role. this follows a high profile loss for oracle last week in a court fight with google. wilf, the price tag on that would have been $9 billion for oracle. the jury did not rule in their favor but they sure could have used some of that. >> they definitely could have used that. this morning, we're watching, of
course, the sumner redstone battle. more shots fired over the weekend for the latest. here's landon. she's got details. >> wilfred, good morning. here's the latest on the saga, viacom vowed monday, they're not going down without a fight. the shareholders say they plan to fight any attempt to oust them from the board. they don't believe sumner redstone is mentally competent to act on his free will. the letter comes from a state from redstone issued by his spokesman that he was considering ousting the redstone ceo. and earlier this month, the 93-year-old removed aman from the control of the shares if redstone is incompetent or dies. viacom has dropped 50%. the stock has ridge more than
15% since redstone removed aman from the trust. and many believe redstone's daughter sheri is behind it. still to come on "worldwide exchange," india has a message for apple with stores in their country. first, you must do something else first. we'll tell you what that is, coming up. before we head to break, this date in history, may 31st, 1927, the final ford model t. ford produced more than 50 million model t cars between 1908 and 1917. the model t was named the most influential car of the century. there we go. still much more to come on "worldwide exchange." nnected tor and to your customers. with centurylink you get advanced technology solutions, including an industry leading broadband network,
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a very good morning to you. welcome back to "worldwide exchange," if you're just waking up, let's get you up to speed on the markets. last week strong for u.s. equities. 3% gain for the nasdaq. 2% for the other two indices. looking like we're going to hold on those gains this morning. in fact, this is the last trading day of the month all three in positive territory. the dow will have to hold on to about 0.5% of gains. the others have got more breathing space to remain positive for the week. let's have a look at oil as well. in fact, a key factor for
markets. just below 50 for wti and brent. let's move on to the twitter question this morning. stocks positive last week and in may as a whole. is it time to sell or buy? get in touch with us. consumers that martin senn has committed suicide. senn left secure itch in december follows a series of profit warnings and a failed takeover of the british rival. south korean officials say a north korean missile launch likely failed today. it tempers recent worries that pyongyang was pushing tour its goal of a nuclear-tipped missile that could reach america's mainland. india is telling apple it can open stores in its country
if it creates jobs. it seeks a waiver from a local sources rule. india wants the tech giant to sell at least 30% locally sourced goods. apple ceo tim cook met the prime minister about a week ago. cook's trip was to set the stage for the company's expansion in the country. s where in the world, moody's warns debt payments by rio de janeiro facing all brazilian states. the comments follow rio's missed payments to a french development bank last week. moody's said the french government is responsible for debts to foreign institutions. a new survey this morning focuses on brexit fears. a third of top executives at britain's biggest top companies say they have spent up to 1 million pounds preparing for the consequences of leaving the eu. almost 7% of those polled say they intend to relocate parts of their uk operation if britain
votes to leave. and wilf, you've been covering this very, very closely. what do you think? >> i mean, i think the business vote is an important one. and i'll tell you, on the business side, most favor remain when they come out and say something clear. in general, businesses have been quite reticent because of voting rules to make their opinions too clear. certainly, there will be costs and uncertainties. hard to know what the costs will be. >> what do you think of the markets? at the time the brexit talks flares up you've got that and the pound reacts. we don't see the equity markets react. >> no, and that's fair because we're weeks away. when you get to the week of the vote, we'll see the ftse 100 or more the ftse 250, the smaller uk companies react a little bit. sterling, around 146, 147 is towards the high point since the date was announced.
so the confidence in the sterling market is matching the confidence in the polls at the moment which of course are pointing towards the remain votes. and the point they're making, watch out, let's get closer to the vote. a long way to go. still to come here on "worldwide exchange," decision 2016, a lot of focus on california this morning. we'll tell you why. >> before the break, here's the national weather forecast from weather channel's reynolds wolf. >> good morning. there you go, smack dab in the center of the country, we have a chance of showers and storms and tornadic activity. year going to see the showers and storms not only in texas and oklahoma but maybe into parts of new mexico but then you get into the cooling, western great lakes another feature of round of showers expected there. possibly strong winds and damaging hail and can't rule out
tornadoes. meanwhile back to the west, pure bliss, beautiful conditions up and down much of the eastern seaboard. there's a look at your forecast. keep it here on cnbc. gym bag. before earning 1% cash back everywhere, every time and 2% back at the grocery store. even before he got 3% back on gas. kenny used his bankamericard cash rewards credit card to join the wednesday night league. because he loves to play hoops. not jump through them. that's the excitement of rewarding connections. apply online or at a bank of america near you.
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oral-b. know you're getting a superior clean. i'm never going back to a manual brush. welcome back. let's get you up to speed on the market action. last week was solid for u.s. equities. actually, it's been a pretty solid may altogether, despite that phase sell in may and go away. there's no shortage of recents
coming up this week in particular, of course, we have the nfp jobs report on friday which is the last before the federal research meeting and decision. as of right now, a decent day expected for the three major indices. let's take a look at currency as well. the dollar has been strengthening on the latest comments from chair janet yellen indicating that the country is ready for another rate hike. that's what the market is watching for. i want to point to the dollar yen. the yen has sortened which is providing some strength for japanese equities. let's take a look at oil this is going to be an important driver in the week ahead. we had the opec meeting in vienna. no agreement is expected to be reached. that may keep a cap on oil. it did go briefly above 50 bucks a barrel which is a big turn
around what we saw. donald trump uses memorial day to explain his donations to service. and bernie sanders and hillary clinton switches to plan "b" to get to california. tra tracie potts with the latest. >> hi, everyone. clinton is gaming their game plan. we saw with donald trump, remember when he skipped a debate because he said he wanted to focus on veterans and do a fund-raiser for them. now, amid some criticism, he's having to explain where that money went. later this morning, donald trump is holding a news conference to name the veterans groups who got $6 million in donations. >> we raised this tremendous amount of money because we love the vets. >> reporter: veterans will as speak out this morning, they claim trump lied about the money. still, no debate with bernie sanders who promises a comeback
like the golden state warriors he saw last night. >> they turned it around that is what we're going to do. >> reporter: sanders saw protesters rush the stage in oakland. >> we don't get intimidated easily. >> reporter: he's predicting a win from the primary one week today. hillary clinton's fund-raising in new york and new jersey today headed back to california a day earlier than planned for five straight days of campaigning before next week's primary. sanders has already been in california for days. he'll stay there and he's got a couple more events focused on health care. >> what's donald trump's rhetoric. is he trying to suggest who he'd rather fight and will that have any impact? >> actually, he's doing the opposite. he's stepping back. he spent a lot of time talking about hillary clinton. now of late, he's talked a little bit more about bernie
sanders but he stepped back from that debate with bernie sanders saying, wait a minute, we're going to wait until the democrats hash it out decide who they want to be the nominee and then we'll go from there. he's actually stepping back from it seems choosing between the two. >> tracie, thank you. u.s. chamber of commercial wants to keep the status quo in congress. "the wall street journal" says they will launch an issue any of to raise money for title senate races. the aim is to keep the gop from losing control of the chamber in november. the effort is being led by both republicans who back the parties, presidential nominee donald trump and those reluctant to do so. republicans currently hold 54 of the senate's 100 seats but 24 of those seat, up for grabs this year. to sports. it all comes down to one game in the nba western conference finals. the golden state warriors come
back from being 3-1 down in the series to force it with the thunder. we head to oakland with just five seconds to go in the first half. steph curry takes matters in his own hands going the length of the court and to the hoop, kisses it off the glass. the buzzer and then six points at halftime. they put the hammer down in the second half. curry leading the way. the official comeback in the game and series drilling a three for deep, 96-88, for the second straight year, they'll face lebron james and the cleveland cavs, that will be one to watch. >> wilf, since you've been in america, have you gotten into the basketball or were you already there? >> i've been to a couple knicks game and have followed steph curry because of sara's love of steph curry. i want to pick all of the teams.
i came in the middle of the season i kind of watched from afar. >> you should keep afternoon eye on the raptors. the fans are crazy. everyone in canada, to the ice, the puck was dropped in game one of the stanld cup finals. pittsburgh penguins led by sidney crosby nation off. penguins dig the puck out of the corner and defenseman kris letang centers it to nick bonino to bring it home. bonino with the fifth winning playoff goal of his career. game two is wednesday night. wilf, there's a lot of attention on the warriors but the san jose sharks are killing it. >> i've got to get to an ice hockey game. >> you haven't had one. i noticed they had me tell that
story because i'm canadian. >> biggest sport in canada, is it? >> certainly, it's a national sport. still to come, this morning's top stories, but the ceo of coca-cola, the world's largest pop maker. >> they're playing this canadian singer. and the question stocks positive last week and in may as a whole. is it time to sell for the summer? we'll be right back. what are you doing right now? making a cake! ayla reminds me of like a master chef and emiana reminds me of like a monster chef. uh oh. i don't see cake, i just see mess. it's like awful. it feels like i am not actually cleaning it up
sell in may and go away? well, make not so fast. stats you'll need to see to believe coming up. first on c nbc, the ceo of coca-cola european partners joins us live. and hacked. katy perry 80 million twitter follower were in for a surprise yesterday. we'll tell you all about it. it's tuesday, may 31st, 2016. "worldwide exchange." very good morning to you on "worldwide exchange." welcome to "worldwide exchange," on cnbc. i'm wilfred frost joined by dee b bosa sitting in for sara eisen. >> it's a pretty solid month for
u.s. equities. the s&p 500 is set to open slightly higher. the nasdaq coming off of gains of 3% last week. a pretty good week for tech, implied open of more than six point which is also take a look at the ten-year. this is going to be important to watch, especially as we get closer to that june fed meeting and july fed meeting. the chat on the market is will the fed hike those expectations that have ridge on the back of janet yellen's comments and james bullard's comments. we've seen the fed rising over the last few session. let's take a look at currency -- no, not today. i'm still getting used to thing. >> the dollar which has been very strong. four weeks of gains for the u.s. dollar over the last four weeks. as we said, earlier, trading, this is the final trading session of may. the dow is on track for its
fourth consecutive positive month. that would be its best streak since five straight winning months ending in june 2014. six out of ten are positive. and led by tech up by more than 5%. dow is up 0.6 of a percent. s&p is higher by 1.6%. the nasdaq has jumped more than 3%. that led to the twitter question, is it time to sell for the summer? do continue to get in touch, and we will be updating down the results of that poll later in the show. >> you wonder, was may's gain sort of like a bonus, right? typically, the markets don't do all that well in may. let's get a check on the global markets as well in asia. japan's nikkei. up on the back of better data. china is the one to watch, wilf, 3% is not much for the shanghai.
it telling how boring china has been. consumer prices falling 0.1% on the year in may. that's the second month declining in prices. you're seeing markets there under pressure but a solid week for a lost these markets. >> exactly like the u.s., both asia and europe did well last week. opec meeting coming up in vienna on thursday. most not expect anything coordinated action on production pop could prices have doubled after hitting three-year low this winter. briefly trading below $50 last week. of course, strong gains for oil in recent weeks. it was up 1.9%. last weekend, it's up 7.4% in the month of way, wti. so, strong performance. all eyes on opec for thursday. >> that's right, wilf. i just jumped the gun a little bit. let's take a look at the bottom markets and the dollar.
four weeks, right, of gains for the dollar which is the longest streak we've seen for a while. this on the back of janet yellen's comments on friday saying the u.s. economy could perhaps handle another interest rate hike and that could be in june and july. certainly on the mind of investors. it's going to be an important data point for the federal reserve. let's take a look at what global has been under. we're currently sitting at 1,213. >> it may be a short. ed trading week but there's still economic data. today look for personal income. the march s&p case-shiller home index, as well as chicago pmi and consumer confidence for may. on wednesday, we get the ism manufacturing and the fed's beige book law on thursday. and friday, it's the big one, may nonfarm pairls along with the ism services index.
lots of data to watch this week. let's switch focus. the past week, coca-cola enterprises shareholders approved the merger with two bottling companies. that deal creating the world's largest independent coke bottler. it will start trading in new york, london and amsterdam. and joining us from amsterdam first on cnbc, john bock, new ceo. very good morning to you, john. thanks for joining us. congratulations with closing the merger with your other europe mean coke bottling companies. the question is, to what extent has been this merger forced by coca-cola, the company, because in the need of slightly declining sales? >> well, first of all, let me say it's really exciting to be here with you today from amsterdam. we'll begin trading shares later today. it's a beautiful day and it's a cause for celebration.
and we're bringing these three already significant bottlers together. coca-cola enterprises spain and germany, to form as you said the largest coca-cola bottler in the world by revenue. and we're really excited about it because it's all about growth. we'll have scale. we'll have flexibility. we'll have innovation. ability to bring new products, new packages to market and achieve growth. and frankly, what we're really going to be doing is taking the best practices from each of the three businesses and putting them together in this new entity ccep. a quick example, the germans are the best in the world, frankly, of dealing with discounters. cce is very good with dealing with the modern retail trade. and spain is incredible up and down the street. hotel, restaurant, cafe distribution. so it's the best of the best coming together to form ccep. >> good morning, john. i'm wondering about the savings
aspect of this. savings is a huge part of that. you guys aiming to cut costs by 375 million in three years. how do you get there? what are some of those initiatives? >> yeah, just to be clear, it is all about growth and that's the primary reason we did this entity, but it's also about savings. and we committed to 350 to 375 million u.s. dollars a year, by year three. the bulk of that savings is going to come from procurement. we are going to be able to buy things at a much greater scale and a much greater level. and that will be where most of the savings come from. obviously, as we look at combining at other entities, whether it's headquarters or other functions there will be some savings there. what i can say today, ten months after we announce the transaction, we're more confident than ever that those savings targets will be realized by year three. >> john, now, the biggest of course in the world in terms of
coke bottlers and taking pretty much all of europe under your wings, will there will be further consolidation moving forward with bottlers from america and from asia? >> well, let me just say, we're excited about this combination that resulting. ccep, as you said is going to be a significant part of western europe. we're always open to greater geographical diversification, 96 to our business. we've got a lot to do right now. frankly, we're very happy where we are. but if other strategic opportunities came along, i'll certainly say, we would be happy to take a look at them. i think it's also fair to say there has to be a willing seller and a willing buyer to make a transaction work. against, our interest is all about creating value for our shareholders. so if we were to do a transaction, it would be under that guise. that we're goes to clearly create value for our shareholders by doing it.
>> okay, john, you guys have moved your headquarter over to europe. what kind of savings is that resulting in due to the fact that you're no longer page a higher u.s. tax bill? how will that affect the balance sheets? >> let me just be clear this is a strategic and financial transaction, absolutely. our business was already 100% in europe. coca-cola enterprises was in seven countries in europe. coca-cola iberian partners were in three. spain and iceland. putting it all together is a very strong strategic and fvnl transaction. the new headquarters will be in london. in green bat britain, which is of the largest and we think is the most appropriate to have the domicile going forward. in terms of trading two primary
places, amsterdam in europe. and new york where the bulk of our shares have been traded historically. but those will be the two exchanges where we anticipate most of the our shares will be traded in the future. and, of course, that's why we're here in amsterdam today to ring the bell and celebrate the opening of trading here. >> john, as you said, all across europe and headquartered in london. does the threat of an exit from the european union concern you? >> we think that whole decision needs to be up to the choices that are going to be made by uk voters. just to remind everyone, some 95% of the products that are sold in any one our given markets are produced in that same market. so, we frankly, think that the british voters should decide about brexit. whatever the decision is, we will certainly be able to deal with it it it. >> john, your held quarters, you've only just moved into the
uk, they'll remain in the uk either way? >> absolutely. the headquarters of coca-cola enterprises was already in london. and that will be an expanded headquarters now for the whole of ccep. but what happens on brexit would have no impact whatsoever on the choice of our headquarters. >> can we touch as well, john, just quickly on the health of the consumer in europe. what trends are you seeing in your outlook for the year ahead? >> well, our sense is europe continues to get better and better from an economic standpoint. and i have to say in our category, just to put it in perspective, it's 100 billion euros. that's the size of the nonalcoholic ready-to-drink category. and unlike some fmcg categories it is growing. and we have certain pockets that are really growing like energy
drinks and wareters. we're very excited about the category. and as said, the real function of this combination is to increase growth. we think consumers are becoming increasingly positive. it's still a macro economic market that has somal chas. we think there are more green chutes out there frankly. and we'll make the point that our customers are becoming increasingly more positive about the future and that's important. because we need to have this very strong customer relationship. whether it's big grocery stores or whether it's up and down the street. and one of the things we bring so strongly to customers is a value creating proposition to both grow our business and their business at the same time and to create mutual value. >> john, thank you for joining us. john brock, ceo of coca-cola european partners.
to the fun stories here. walt disney is vowing action against a chinese theme park over possible infringement of intellectual property. this after they opened a rival theme park over the weekend that featured workers dressed as disney's capital america, snow white and storm troopers. let me tell you, wilf, that's not the weirdest thing you've seen in a chinese theme park. i've been to one. it's got replicas around the world. katy perry's 89 million twitter followers were in surprise last night. the pop star's site was hacked. the page was filled with profanities and slurs and defeats to her rival taylor twist. 89 million people. i forgot how many followers she has. >> you got to remember, too, how
many are those are zombie followers regardless, that's a lot of followers. >> very quickly deleted. >> the stakes are high when you have nearly 100 million followers. coming up, must reads including an important one on china. "worldwide exchange" will be right back. cathy's gotten used to the smell of lingering garbage... ...in her kitchen yup, she's gone noseblind. she thinks it smells fine, but her guests smell this. ding, flies, meow febreze air effects heavy duty has up to... ...two times the odor-eliminating power to... ...remove odors you've done noseblind to
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pick, financial sometimes entitled xi jinping has changed china's winning formula. writing the key to the hold most powerful leader a few decades was that the trade was domestic poses and foreign policy were constructed to create the perfect environment for a chinese economic miracle. with mr. xi, however, political and foreign policy imperatives frequently appear to trump economics. very interesting read. the way that president xi managed to take almost all control. and also saying how within the economic priorities that used to be focused on exports, manufacturing and it changed to consumption led to domestic growth seeing a lot of bumps in the road. it's a big experiment that president xi is taking on, risks bigger. >> and it's a much different take than the former administration, right?
because he has ruled with sort of with an iron fist. he has cracked down on corruption which has outed a lot of ceos and a lot of companies. it will be interesting to see how this goes. >> well, we're approaching the top of the hour. that means the team is getting ready for swsh"squawk box." becky quick joins us. good morning. >> good morning, wilf, let me ask ba your weekends were like. a lot of us were kicking off our summer plans but sara was kicking off the beginning of the rest of her life. how did things go. >> she was indeed. i confirm a very beautiful and touching service sunday night. all those there happy to celebrate matt and sara's ceremony. dee, i want to welcome you, too. it's great to see you. because we're gearing up for the last trading day of the month, today is it. so far, it looks like indices in
positive territories. we're looking at positive futures. we'll see if the markets can hold on to it. we do have a lot of market guests lined up to talk about things. we're digging into politics. ben white will be joining us. and later on in the show, we have rand paul joining us to see how things are playing out. plus, we've got a few academics we're talking to this week. and he's go to be talking to us about the rise of the machines. what happens when the machines take over more and more jobs. something we've been watching for centuries. is it different this time around and what can you do about. we're also talking to a harvard university law professor who has an interesting take on the world. he's been looking into on "star wars." he's a huge fan with his son. we're talking about the box office, speaking of hollywood, anyone looking for a positive open this weekend, memorial day
weekend is a bit disappointed after a big bomb, disney's looking through the hourglass. >> wilf, i'll ask you to show me pictures of the beautiful wedding. the dow is coming off its best week in march. and now since february, as we wrap up the final trading day of may. jurrien timur will weigh in. you're watching "worldwide exchange." cnbc, first in business worldwide. ected to each other and to your customers. with centurylink you get advanced technology solutions, including an industry leading broadband network, and cloud and hosting services - all with dedicated, responsive support. with centurylink as your trusted technology partner, you're free to focus on growing your business. centurylink. your link to what's next. what aremaking a cake!ht now?
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welcome back to "worldwide exchange." our twitter question this morning, stocks positive in may. is it time to sell for the summer? 55% of you say sell. joining us from boston is jurrien timmer director of global mac crowe at fidelity investments. thanks for being with us. what say you, sell in june and go away? >> normally, basically from may
to november, at least till october is the weakest part of the year. but right now, i don't really see the ingredients for that. the two major indicators that led the market on the way down which were oil price and high yield credit have both been leading on the way up. so, i'm not seeing evidence from there. also, earnings are down five quarters in a row. so, you know, it may not get much worse than that. i don't really see the immediate negative catalyst to drive us down here. >> jurrien, have you been surprised with how we equity markets have taken talk of a rate hike coming sooner than expected? >> i wouldn't say i'm surprised but clearly there's a game here like a dance between the fed and the markets. the fed is testing the waters to see if the market will give it the green light to go. and so far, the answer has been a very big yes. the s&p is back at the highs of the range.
even though the odds for a june rate hike are are 30. but for september, it's about 70. so far, everything has been quiet. that seems to be approval by market. i would caution, though, that the same thing happened last december, right? so the markets blessed a fed hike in december. everything was fine. for a couple weeks, the markets were completely normal and quiet. then january rolled around it was still a pretty nasty event in january and february. so, we won't really know until the fed has actually pulled the trigger which over, it looks like it's probably going to do over the next few months. >> jurrien, i was going to ask you about it last time and what's different this time? how do you expect the jobs report to come in this friday and factor into its decision? >> not really, i hope the fed
doesn't make its decision based on single reports. but then again, we need to watch what's happened in china, the youan as gone down. and awhat happens in china, i think that's the key thing that we need to watch for. so far things have been quiet. >> jurrien, would you not say that authorities in china do have a better handle on thing, the currency one inspect of that, than when they did the markets fell out of bed in china? >> we are now in the next round in summer when it devalued and the fed sort of put this thing on hold. then in december, the fed got the green light from the markets that pulled the trigger. in january, we had another round
of involuntary devaluation. the fed understands this is about the dollar. if the market can price in a hike here without the dollar really going, you know, sharply higher. than i think everyone will probably get sort of a reprieve here from this occurrence repeated yet again. >> jurrien, just quickly, you mention allowed oil prices have been for markets what's your latest on oil? >> i don't really have a view on where it's going to go. but my sense is at 50, companies are going to start making money again. at least in the unconvention shell oil industry. above 50, companies goy ies areo get good results here. above 50, those oil rigs are going to get turned on. i think there's a natural ceiling here. whether 55 or 60. i don't know.
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good morning, traders have just one last day to sell in may, but the dow is headed into the session on track to post its fourth straight month of gains. there's new drama at viacom, board members vowing to fight any attempt to oust them from that board. details straight ahead. and hrc, hillary clinton, cancelling campaign events in new jersey. and heading out west, now focusing on a close primary race in california. it's tuesday, may 31st, 2016. "squawk box" begins right now.
♪ if i was in l.a. >> announcer: live from new york where business never sleeps, this is "squawk box." good morning, everybody. welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc. i'm becky quick along with joe kernin, andrew is off today. guess what, tuesday, today, it's the final trading session of may. the dow is on track as joe mentioned for its fourth consecutive positive month. that would be its best streak since the five straight winning months that ended back in june 2014. six out of ten s&p sectors positive for the month. led by technology up by more than 5%. check out the month to date returns. dow up by 0.6%. that's a gain of 100 points. s&p is higher by 1.6%. nasdaq jumped by 3.3%. they're gains are safer. check it out, the bulls are in demand this