Skip to main content

tv   Worldwide Exchange  CNBC  July 1, 2016 5:00am-6:01am EDT

5:00 am
if good morning. the post brexit bounce. we'll talk about what's in store for the second half, straight ahead. music to apples' ears. talks to gain jay-zs streaming service. and move over. a uk fight is taking the world by storm. it's friday, july 1, 2016, and "worldwide exchange" begins right now.
5:01 am
good morning and welcome to another special edition of "worldwide exchange." i'm sara eisen in washington today. >> and i'm wilfred frost reporting live from london. good morning to you all. >> good morning. it is the friday before independence day. we're wishing america a happy birthday with some of best usa themed songs today. let's get straight so the markets on a friday. let's show you what u.s. futures are doing. under a little bit of pressure after pretty giant rally. the dow climbing more than 200 points again yesterday. giving back about 48 on the session here. s&p future down. nasdaq down 14. the first half of the queer nye officially in the books. the dow and the s&p 500 up nearly 3% for the year, but check at the nasdaq, it is down by the same amount. six sectors are positive here today led by tell kom up 21.8
5:02 am
pjt. the worst performer the financials down 4% for the year. as for the ten year treasury note, we have seen another strong week. buying a treasury sending yields lower. down to 1.41. they are down again this morning. just stunning to see pressure on yield's worldwide especially in the uk. >> absolutely right and the yields in the uk hittingrecord lows again. the major embassies broadly higher. a few down. you can see the best part of 1%, germany, france, and london in around a quarter to a half a%. european stocks now a winning streak. still below pre-brexit levels.
5:03 am
check out the ftse 100. over the last year it's hit a ten-month high. so well above the brexit level. of course, yesterday the pound fell quite significantly again as mark carny the bang of england suggested there might be more easing. there is sterling over the last 12 months. painting the picture that of course not all assets are looking pretty after brexit. that sharp, sharp fall since late thursday is clearly cited on that chart. and interesting to say the ftse 100 year to date was at a ten-month high is down 8% in dollar terms highlighting the brexit moves have been negativenegative overall. >> two year guilt yield going negative yesterday for the first time. -- not going negative. we're up to .15%, but mark carny
5:04 am
suggesting there might need toe >> in my view, the economic outlook has deteriorated and some economic policy easing will likely be required over this summer. >> the yield on the ten-year uk guild also dropping to record lows. we're at 0 .8% this morning. towards the end of that chart, the sharp fall we have seen related to brexit issues. the story playing out, falling to the lowest level since march 2015. the reason looking for more monetary stimulus, and, of course, buying safe hachb assets relative to equities. italian banks among the biggest winners. they had been up more sharply at the top of the open.
5:05 am
now down. down some 4%. they had rallied initially because approved bank stop, but the program would guarantee liquidity for lenders. in the event which would require them to be bailed out. they have turned around in recent minutes, so about the last half hour. >> show you the picture in asia overnight. stocks closing mixed. we did get data points, especially in china. he think seng in hong kong has been higher. finished tw ed two percent in j it has been a brutal year for japanese stocks. in shanghai we did manage to close higher as well. meanwhile in japan, key sentiment barometer showing manufacturer's confidence was subdued last month. it is worth noting this report
5:06 am
didn't capture the post brexit global gloom because most firms responded before last week's uk vote. >> let's have a quick look at broader markets as well. the currency market this morning. sterling is broadly flat. it's just soft of 1.33. basically just blow that level. having to climb around 1% yesterday. . we've got the dollar moving around 1% . oil prices as we have m discussed in the last couple of days have helped markets in the recent days. little bit softer the last two days. just below 48. gold prices enjoy a good post brexit bounce, but right now higher again around 1.25%. 1.336. >> it has been interesting to watch the u.s. stock market recover over the last three sessions with some pretty decent
5:07 am
and broad based rallies. closing up another 235 points yesterday. three straight sessions in a row putting the quarter positive, the month positive skrks the year positive. it has been climbing this lull of worry, but especially in the wake of the brexit vote. we still are off. stocks are under pressure since the vote, but boy have they managed to recover a lot of the losses. the thinking here in the u.s. is perhaps it won't be as big an impact on the u.s. economy and there's also a lot of positioning that happened after the brexit vote so a lot of those being squeezed and also we've seen some mna. we saw some unexpected deals like mondaylys making a bid for hershey. hershey rejected it. big deals happening despite what has been a period of sluggish growth. >> absolutely right. and oil prices despite yesterday
5:08 am
and today, they started to rally in the early part of the week. that helped u.s. markets. and the bank stress test, that was a big worry coming ahead of them and they didn't go too badly at all. i actually think more than the three days of gains we've seen, i'm more sfriezed the quarter is a positive and the year is a positive. brexit one of the big worries for the markets this year and somehow we're in positive territory and i think it all comes back that because of these wares, central banks tilting towards the easing side again. that's keeping equity supported. >> yes, easing is back in. we do wrap up the trading week and the final day before the long holiday weekend with a pair of economic u.s. reports. we get the june manufacturing report at 10 am eastern time. we've got some fed to pay attention to.
5:09 am
cleveland fed president is in london. plus don't miss my exclusive interview with stanley fisher. he's the core of the fed, the number two to janet yellen, that is coming today. speaking of the u.s. central bank, st. louis fed president james sticking with the view the policymakers need to make a single increase to interest rates. speaking to reporters in london says doesn't see the brexit having a material impact on the u.s. over the next two years. clearly thinking about the long-term even though he's not committing his forecast in the fed. aa plus rating. issuer of the nations leading reserve currency. in contrast, s&p cut its rating from aa to aa plus. the ability to stay united post
5:10 am
brexit. it also learned that the eu may have less bejt flexibility. >> we're going to talk about that in just a couple of minutes with a top guest of the show. let's hear some more corporate news. opening an investigation into tesla cars after a driver was killed using an auto pilot mode. the crash occurred in may. in a blog post tesla says neither the driver or the auto system noted the truck against the white sky so the brakes weren't applied. this is the first known face-to-facealty in more than 130 million miechls where the auto feature has been activated. apple may be searching for a new beat. it is in early talks to by title. the music streaming service owned by rapper jay-z. both companies are declining comments at this time. has strange ties to artists such
5:11 am
as kanye west and right knee a bought it last year and gave 19 artists and bands small stakes and a promise of millions worth of markets. nike has name ld tim cook as the lead independent director of the board. this latest move comes as nike finds retire part of a planned succession. he's been named chairman. ceo is taking on the added title of chairman right. let's switch focus from corporate news back to uk politics in the fight to be the next prime minster. playing out here in britain, but the entire world is watching. firstly, i'm going to break up the son because they've come up with perhaps the best brexit related pun on words throughout the whole campaign.
5:12 am
brex cuted. boris johnson was stabbed in the back by michael gove yesterday. now not even a candidate to be the next prime minster. that was the big surprise yesterday. also going to hold up the daily mail which was of course a leave paper. it is also a big conservative party paerp and despite being a leave paper, they are baking theresa may. who was ton ont remain side. interesting this paper which has got a big conservative party reader backing tvm. who is the overwhelmingly favorite, i might add. tina, very good morning to you. thank you for joining us. extraordinary day in politics. >> since the day before at least. >> exactly. how much turmoil is british politics in right now. >> the opposition has
5:13 am
imemployed. labor has gone done in flames without a leader with much credibility. the conservative party is reeling from the sort of the internal things that have been exposed by this. that's why theresa may as a candidate is an interesting choice. may be a bit counter- intuitive because she would be a remain prime minster following a leave vote. >> how important is it she said yesterday, a, she's the favorite and b, she's a remain candidate that she said brexit means brexit. >> it's very important. that leads to what i think is a very important disconnect with markets we just went through the data and the rally and how much things have recovered. a lot of investors think brexit won't happen and if it does happen it won't happen for a really long time. it's true it's a process and not an event. she has been clear no second referendum and she will trigger article 50.
5:14 am
likewise, gove may have a slightly different approach, but this could happen sooner than investors are expecting. >> so the rally a little overdone. >> a denial i would say. >> let's talk about implications of brexit for the rest of europe. bank bailout in italy. is that the country most likely to suffer from contagion. >> depends if we're talking about market contagion. this is systemic politically and i think that is also underappreciated although it is a slower moving process. in italy we have high levels of euro skepticism. we have a referendum coming at the end of the year. what we know and has been highlighted by the uk rempd is how these kinds of oversights can allow people to show discontent. and reverberate far beyond the
5:15 am
ballot paper. so more referendums. >> sara has a question from the states. >> numerous questions about how this is going to look once the negotiations start, but front and center is the trade relationship can the access to europe's open market. what are you thinking right now? what is the latest thinking do you think on the part of the eu. is it going to be norway, switzerland? where is the template. >> a few arrangements possible within the existing kinds of templates and one is the norway option, but norway requires in order to get access to the single market, it requires willingness to include the four freedoms which includes freedom of movement. both gove and may are tough red lines on freedom of movement. which is why you can certainly come to the conclusion that under a leadership under either of them means a tougher time getting to a deal that preserves single market access and then of
5:16 am
course passporting which matters for financial services. >> just to round things up, i can't let you go without asking, if there were implications, conclusions to draw from brexit from the u.s. presidential election, i think one factor we've seen is a lot more secret brexit supporters than the polls had realized. are there a lot more secret trump supporters out there. >> the key point for me is that watching the polls is useful as a guideline. watching the betting markets, the prediction markets, i think less useful. what we need to understand from brexit most of all is it applying to other big political contests is that things that seem unthinkable are happen lg. the old correlations are breaking down in politics as they are in markets and the appetite for political alternatives is enormous. >> just aside from the u.s. presidential election for the rest of this year and next year, what are the big political events to be focused on. >> beyond u.s. election, next
5:17 am
year is a huge i would seu elec. that's another factor. it will be for merkel and this is how all politicians think getting through the next election and then working out the rest later. that's how they work. >> tina, thank you so much for joining us. shedding light on an extraordinary political situation, not just here in london, but across the world right now. still to come here on "worldwide exchange" currency moves ruling the investing world right now: simon derek puts it all into perspective for nus ina couple of minutes. it is independence day here in the u.s. here is what to expect if you are traveling for the holiday weekend. of the next patient.. no problem.
5:18 am
it's a pretty huge file. done. sorry for the wait. that was quick. as part of our research, i also compared lab results with notes about prior treatments, then cross referenced it with thousands of medical journals. and i get the benefit of much more data, and a lot more time to plan the best treatments. i stay focused 24/7 and never sleep. you sound like a lot of medical students i know. i stay focused 24/7 and never sleep. hi baby! hi daddy! gain the freedom to fumble with the new water and shatter- resistant samsung galaxy s7 active. buy one now and get the samsung gear s2 for free. exclusively at at&t
5:19 am
5:20 am
lest focus quickly on the brexit fallout. the ftse si one is high. the pound tells us brexit is still worry. >> dollar exposure to weaker
5:21 am
pennies do well. look at the earnings. you're absolutely right. the focus right now isn't obviously the fact that we got monetary policy conditions kicking in. we have mr. karrny's comments yesterday making it clear that something is doing to happen to ease policy. that is coming into what is already a tough situation for the bank which is clouded by the lack of clarity about what is going to happen over the next few years. >> do you think brexit is affecting uk policy outlook orp other central banks as well. >> i think it's a far far broader issue. we already know if we go back to last month, janet yellen was telling us she was worried about international matters. they talked about brexit. so right now going into the summer, likely we're going to get any kind of move at all from the fed is pretty much zero. i would include september in there as well, but moving over from that, less obviously one of
5:22 am
the great safe hachbs is the yen. we were getting signals from the deputy covenant secretary yesterday they were very concerned and also going to start talking which is a big big signal. i think you can see the bank of japan doing better here as well. their problem is what else can we do. >> we've also seen the euro act as sort after a safe haven. it's gone up on days you wouldn't have expected given the negative interest rates. how does the euro move now? perhaps their affect instead a negative way so going ahead what's your forecast for the euro. >> you're right. the euro goes up in times of crisis. you haven't seen that this time or anywhere near the same way. we are trading at a lower level. not at 1.17 and 1.18. the big issue for europe right
5:23 am
anyway is places like france and in italy where the euro skepticism remains strong. they've been bolstered by what we've seen in the uk. by own feeling we still need to be careful about making too aggressive forecast. this is event driven, but i'm starting to think we do have 104, 105 back at some point. >> i'm in washington so i've got the fed on my mind today. i'm curious about what you said. no rate hikes this year potentially and that is something certainly reflected in the market, but those expectations can change on the dime. we do get a job report next week. if we start to see strength in the job market again with the 4.7% inflammatition rate. >> is it possible they could end
5:24 am
uptight, yes. nobody would deny that, but when it comes to looking at the timing it's very difficult to see them making a move. september for example markets fret about september moves. it's been a negative rather than as a positive. that is a difficult bun because you've got the election so at best, at best you're talking about december. i think that really is what it comes to. if you're going to go toward the end of the year, but frank lily given the uncertain if i of where we are right now the easiest thing to say is nothing at all. >> what about some of the other european currencies, swiss, would you be buying those. >> it's a brave one to take on the swiss national bank. they've been so explicit about the desire to defend. they will intervene. that said, that has been
5:25 am
significant flows into the swiss, but i think the s&p will fight against that. you've got to imagine the next move wasn't just intervention will be something more radical. do we hear the sound of helicopters in the distance. >> thank you so much for joining us. sara. >> coming up this morning's top market moves. the top half officially in the book and the dow and s&p 500 have recovered nearly 90% of the post brexit losses. stay tuned, you're watching cnbc first in business. worldwide.
5:26 am
5:27 am
5:28 am
hertz. still to come, political fights from london to washington. tony fratto is our special guest in just a couple of minutes. tailored to fit you and your budget. with unique features, like claim free rewards... ohh! customized home protection extra features all at an affordable price! i'm going to live in this. in means getting more from your home insurance with an expert allstate agent. it's good to be in, good hands.
5:29 am
5:30 am
by switching to xfinity x1. rio olympic games show me gymnastics. x1 lets you search by sport, watch nbc's highlights and catch every live event on your tv with nbc sports live extra. i'm getting ready. are you? x1 will change the way you experience nbcuniversal's coverage of the rio olympic games. call or go online today to switch to x1.
5:31 am
good morning. the post brexit bounce. the dow and s&p post their quarterly gains. we'll talk about what's in store straight ahead. music to apples ears. talk to acquire jay-zs streaming service. move over clinton and trump. the uk is taking the world by storm. it's friday, july 1, 2016 and "worldwide exchange" continues right now. >> good morning and welcome to another special edition. i'm sara eisen if washington today. >> and i'm wilfred frost coming to you live from london. >> the parliament behind you and the capitol behind me, it is the friday before independence day. we're wishing america a happy birthday with some throw backs of the best american themed
5:32 am
songs. >> it's the end of an epic two-week road trip for worldwide exchange to london. including prulss. where should they send us next, hong kong, tokyo, moscow perhaps or maybe we need a little bit of a relaxation break and do a show or two from hie you're paying for this trip. my currency is not worth anything anymore. >> that's true. i was thinking we should go to the caribbean then i got worried about zika. we should plan our trips on currency moves. >> we were indeed. if our bosses are watching, tokyo is the top or sara and i's list. u.s. futures right now after three straight days of gains and after positive territory for the last quarter. positive territory for the year
5:33 am
as a hold. we're just expected to take some gains off the top this morning. the nasdaq by 15 points. in europe a little bit of a mixed trade. most markets are up, but italy is down by about 1% and those gains that we awe earlier in the other markets have just lost steam as well. germany plat. the ftse 100 hitting a 10-month high yesterday. erat kate lg brexit losses at the pound fell again and mark carney kblied there would be easing over the summer. hong kong best parking lot t of >> even though the chie these currency going back to a 5 .5 year low oil --
5:34 am
>> $48 level. brent crude oil is 49.42. down about a percent. another strong week and quarter for treasuries with the global easing in full affect. that's pushed yields down on the tenure on the 140 region. 10 year treasury yield. the dollar has been weakening. the federal reserve is on hold. given the risks are piling up. brexit on the top of that list. gold has been a safe haven. silver strong overnight. reaching a multimonth high. the dow and s&p 500 have managed to climb back and fight back recovering nearly 90% of their brexit losses. joining me now in washington is tony fratto.
5:35 am
former white house deputy press secretary. is it surprising that the stock market has recovered 90% of the value post brexit. >> i think what you're seeing is some reallocation, right, not just leaving the market, but allocating into stocks that would be affected to stocks that won't be affected. the impact of brexit ton united states probably isn't the biggest story. i still think at the tend of the day the big story is the impact on the uk market its. even less than europe broadly, but really on the uk. >> so the last time we saw each other was in london. you were there for the brexit vote. you're back here now and getting a lot of questions from the circles. >> a lot of questions. one of the things we did see as you mentioned with wilfred the big move in the pound. here in washington people with wondering what the impact going to be. some is economic. the biggest impact is on our national security relationship
5:36 am
with the continent vis-a-vis russia and others and how we work with our partner in the uk and going forward. >> is that a big worry or are some of those concerns and warnings proving to be a little bit overdone. >> well, look, we have good relationships with all the members of the g 7. we have a terrific relationship with germany. we have a unique special relationship with the uk. especially where intelligence programs are concerned, but we would rely on the uk to help move the country's diplomatically in europe and elsewhere. i think that's probably diminished. probably overblown. doesn't put nus a bad situation, but it's not the same relationship that we had before. >> with that in mind, does it matter, then, who will be the next prime minister of the uk, between the two front runners, theresa may and michael gove. >> as we care about the foouf of the uk, it does matter.
5:37 am
we want to see a strong person in that role who can lead the country and lead them out of a very difficult period for the next three or four years. >> between the two are there any distinctions. >> no, i don't think so, whoever the british people and the conservatives choose will be have a trusted relationship with them. >> what about the read the relationship? already republicans on capitol hill are jumping on the opportunity to do a trade deal with the uk. >> i don't think they understand that's not something we can do right away. we have to continue to work with europe. we can't forget what some do here is even if they have antipathy towards europe and the eu. the eu is the world's largest economy. richest economy. most people. we need to have a relationship with that economy. it is unfortunate the uk is leaving that economy and making things more difficult. >> clearly trump has used this
5:38 am
as a talking point. he was there in scotland praising the uk even though scotland voted to stay in the eu. does it help him. >> it doesn't help him. americans weren't paying a lot of attention before brexit. they're going to turn back to domestic issues and concerns if they haven't already done that once the market volatility has gone the difference in the uk is you can do a protest vote voting against an idea. the idea of participation in europe or concerns you have with regulation from europe and the state of the economy and things like that. in the united states your protest vote has to be embodied in donald trump. he is singularly unattractive as a candidate. >> the focus has already turned to this meeting between lynch and clinton on the run way. the optics of that. does that go away. >> i don't know if it goes away.
5:39 am
you know, it's not the number one thing on voters minds, but it is troubling so bad judgment i thinking on both the former president's part and attorney general's part. >> tony, always good to see you. very valuable as always. >> tom trending stories of the morning. spotify accusing apple of not approving the app updates on purpose. to make it harder for the streaming company to compete with apple music. sending a letter to legal counsel this week claiming the actions are quote, causing great harm between spotify and it will customers. especially with the reports that apple could acquire jay-zs title next. >> spotify way ahead in terms of user numbers. next trending story. facebook launching a tool to help you raise money for your favorite cases and charities. the social media network will
5:40 am
allow users to set up charities. key feature friends with donate directly within facebook and won't be sent to an external website. interesting development. >> i think it's also important they are verified, the charity. snap chat lowering the cost of advertising. the cost for a single add will be a minimum of 1$100,000. that is substantially lower when it first welcomed brands to the platform. really trying to open here, i think, snap chat. we've seen firsthand as snappers and we were very active. the swipes, the pictures they have when they're sponsored are very effective. >> they're great. the filters. the location ones in particular, i couldn't agree more. tabloids, newspapers and other
5:41 am
publications are still weighing in on the post brexit turmoil. the cover of today's issue of the economist reads the new politics of anger above the words anarchy in the uk, references the famous song by the sex pistols. so the economist focusing on that as of course all of the british newspapers continue to do day in and day out here in london, sara. >> another on point cover for the economist . when we come back, today's must reads including a plea from tony blair calling on conservative leadership to act without bit r bitterness during these negotiations. oman owns this ho, with new cabinets from this shop, with handles designed here, made here, shipped from here, on this plane flown by this pilot, who owns stock in this company, that builds big things and provides benefits
5:42 am
to this woman, with new cabinets. they all have insurance crafted personally for them. not just coverage, craftsmanship. not just insured. chubb insured.
5:43 am
5:44 am
welcome back. the times title knife wielding gove deserves the torre crown. saying yesterday was one of the great days in politics brutal traj and dizzying. if you didn't find it fascinate you don't like politics. i certainly agree with that part of it. an extraordinary day yesterday. he goes off to offset that theresa may is the big favorite and to give some reasons why he thinks not only mr. gove should
5:45 am
win, but could win and the first one and most important one, unlike mrs. may, he advocated leaving the eu. he also says george osborne may be coming out very soon as an alley as gove. theresa may the favorite at the moment, a safe pair of hands, but remember voters overwhelmingly voted leave. when it's narrowed down to the two candidates, perhaps that would go for the person who advocated that brexit exit. >> i went to the telegraph for my must read. definitely involved in this conversation. we saw him on out bbc the morning after the referendum. now he's writing on the leadership problem. who will provided the statesman ship we need. the former prime minster writing, quote, during this time we need also for the leave leadership a detailed vision of what the new british economy
5:46 am
they advocate really means. blair goes on to say, do they see, for instance, roughly the same social welfare or something ratically different. major deregulation. what is the plan to get over the pain in the meantime. i mean, really specific questions he clearly is engaged. he cares. i would say he's still popular and laying out a road map for how prnt this is going to be and how these questions are going to be answered in what is a divided country. >> i have to say, sara, that article this morning has huge attention here. it's seen by some as him putting the name in the hat to help carry out the negotiations, but the one area i would disagree with you on is he is not popular. still viewed with a toxic and not to strong a word because of the iraq war and the fallout from it and the big report on the iraq war to come. in fact people's response to the article this morning is people saying he's trying to put his hat in the ring to help
5:47 am
negotiations is being seen with a bit of disdain. if you have a real leave campaign as the next prime minist minister, i don't know they would pick tony blair, but he certainly touches on important topics in terms of when the negotiations come. we are approaching the top of the hour. that means the team is getting ready for "squawk box." >> do i have a last minute edition to the must reads this mornings. i know you talked about the tragic tesla story before. there's a story in "forbes" that raises interesting questions. is tesla responsible for the deadly crash on autopilot. maybe is the answer. it raises all sorts of questions about driver's responsibility, the future frankly of who is going to be responsible for these type of situations, when there are accidents, when it
5:48 am
comes to insurance and how this is going to work. raises a whole number of questions i think are worth a read. i wanted to put that out there for you this morning. nonetheless, we're going to be talking retail, we're going to be talking brexit. eric can'ter. talking taxes, gas taxines befo this big three-day weekend. a lot to do before everybody goes on a three day holiday for independence day and i don't know how wilfred is feeling about that. >> i'm feeling very excited to get some much needed rest, but certainly a big day in the u.s. and i just don't think whatever the result of these negotiations that the 23rd of june will ever be remembered in any way near the same level as july the 4 as you guys. >> i agree with you there. have a great weekend my friend. >> when we come back, the brexit
5:49 am
fallout and the bounce back. the chief economist for international finance joins us next. today we kick off the second half of the year. s&p 500 financials down 4%. stay tuned yourself watching cnbc first in business world wild.
5:50 am
5:51 am
welcome back to worldwide exchange. joining us now chief financial director at the institute of finance which serves banks globally. good to see you. you have been doing some work on the impact brexit, specifically on the u.s. economy. what did you find. >> we're finding while markets may be rebounded over the past week, there's going to be an impact on the u.s. economy and indeed the whole global economy from the fallout in britain, the impact on the european union as well. in the united states we expect activity to slow because slower
5:52 am
exports, stronger dollar, increase in uncertainty, holding back investment, overall impact. the fed will have to respond to that. we don't expect the fed to raise rates any time soon. >> is that the response or you're looking for some additional easing measure. >> i think for the united states that's adequate. there's impact, but with a degree of fed easing the u.s. economy will continue to grope at a reasonable pace, continue to move towards full employment and inflation targets. i don't think the fed will have to do more than just hold off and be patient. >> what did you find in terms of the hit for the uk and the larger eu. >> we're much more worried about the uk. the uk will go into recession in the second half of the year. there's massive uncertainty how brexit will play out.
5:53 am
so that will lead to -- we've already seen a substantial drop in consumer confidence. we expect to see a big drop in business confidence. the pound has weakened 10%. that's a major hit to the european economy. we expect europe to soften in the second half of the year, which is a real problem for the ecb even though they're working hard to get the economy going to get inflation back up. we're expect a further easing package from the ecb in the months ahead. >> wilfred. >> charles, do you think we'll ever see upmonetary policy norm around the world. it seems whether it's across an ocean leads to people to have to ease again. the world seems to fragile to ever come off easy monetary policy. >> brexit was a shock. it's a one time event.
5:54 am
i don't think you can see that as business as usually. the economy is in reasonable shape. i don't think the fed needs to take any further easing measures. just needs to be patient and wait to see how this plays out and make sure markets are absorbing the shock well and make sure the u.s. economy continues to grow on a good pace. that will not be until the end of the year. >> this is all bad news for your members, the global banking system, which is hurting from the negative interest rates and the super low interest rates. what are you telling them. >> it's particularly bad news for the banking system and particularly the uk banks and the european bank hit by the weaker economy. going to be damaged by further easing and also damaged by the cost of adjusting to brexit. this is a major shock to the city of london. it remains to be seen whether the city will maintenance
5:55 am
financi maintain financial passport. a lot of additional costs a s inefficiencies. bad news for our membership. >> last question because you do a lot of work on flows that go into stocks and bonds. what does it mean for emerging markets. >> that's a good question. emerging markets relatively unscathed. equity prices have climbed a little bit. not that much. bond prices have not increased and we've seen very little impact on flows. the reason for that although there is an impact on the global economy, which is negative, on the other hand prospects of greater easying and prospect of the fed being patient is good news. >> we'll see on strong the dollar gets. good to see you charles. >> wilfred. >> we've got about a minute left of worldwide exchange road trip. it's been a pleasure to join everyone around the world from
5:56 am
london for the last couple of weeks. it's time for chart of the quarter. of course at the end of q 2 and i have to go with the sterling chart. extraordinary moves we've seen in the british pound over the course of the last quarter. it was fascinating to see it get bit up as we got closer to june 23. we expected to vote to remain. we hit 150. he collapsed at that level. fascinating times during the quarter in london in the uk and the sterling chart really sums it up, sara. >> i agree. you stole mine. that's the chart of the quarter, no question. so i will do the chart of the 10-year treasury yield. it sums up the global doom, expectation that the federal reserve will not be raising rates this year or next year according to the market. just all of the worries and the fact this recovery in the stock market is not echoed as much in bonds and currency so keep an eye on the tenure yield.
5:57 am
>> keep an eye on the race in london to be the next prime minster. that's it for today. squawk back"squawk box" is next on various trading floors, helps us uncover insights. insights that help investors predict market closes, well before markets close. you know, your analysis has helped us improve our predictive accuracy by over 500%. 550.2, to be precise, but we can always do better. i like your attitude watson.
5:58 am
5:59 am
. s&p one of the biggest gains since august of last year. reversing a lot of those brexit losses and posting its third straight quarterly gain. i don't know if anyone would have predicted such a quick snap back. a full market run down straight ahead. apple is hoping to turn the tied in the battle of music streaming dominance. tech giant reportedly talks to acquire jay-z's title service. if you have trouble remembering
6:00 am
passwords. don't worry. you may be able to log into your bank account by taking a selfie. just what we need. more people taking selfies. we'll talk to the ceo of this company behind this technology. friday, july 1, summer is flying b by. slow things down. 2016. "squawk box" begins right now. >> do good morning everybody. welcome to squawk box. check it out. let's take a look at the u.s. equity futures. red arrows to start the second half. the dow is down. s&p down by 6. the first half is officially in the books. the dow and s&p


info Stream Only

Uploaded by TV Archive on