tv Street Signs CNBC November 22, 2016 4:00am-5:01am EST
reform path, if it enables no, then investor will say europe, italy is starting to become a little bit slow. >> watch out. get it. >> swiss watch imports, exports rather slump by more than 16% as the slow down continues in october. donald trump takes to you tube to announce he'll withdraw the u.s. from the tpp, the transpacific partnership on his first day in office. good morning, everybody and welcome here to "street signs". glad you're with us. of course closing out once again in the u.s. with new all time highs across all the major indexes there. the dow, s&p, nasdaq, russell 2000, russell 400 mid-caps
hitting all fresh new time highs. the russell 2000 saw it's 12th positive session in a row. that's the first time we've seen that in 13 years. these gains really continue. ten out of the 11 s&p sectors were positive led up by energy. that was an outperformer. real estate the only negative sector which was down by a hair or so. this trump trade is just continuing for the time being. >> there doesn't seem tube lot of conviction behind it and that puzzles me. people say we're two weeks into the trump trade, does it have further to run and a lot of people put major question marks behind that rally. >> they are. but i also think maybe we'll be look at these looser regulations. he's loosening a lot especially in the energy sector. this is a boom for energy not sure it's a boom for environment but energy definitely. anyway moving on and showing you our european equity markets this morning, we're looking at quite
a bit of green. half percent to 2% when it comes to ftse. we have this referendum election coming up in italy as well here in two weeks time. so that's what we're seeing in terms of the overall markets. >> let's show you what basic resources are doing. up by 2.8%. let's get back stateside so what the s&p energy sector did, that was the best performing sector out of the 11 s&p sectors. up by 2.2%. oil prices rose 4%. obviously bolstered by the growing conviction that opec can actually strike an output deal next week. let's get out to pierce ahead of trading. thank you for joining us. you were listening to our comments. you saw the all time highs. how much conviction is there behind this trump trade. how much further can it go?
>> for u.s. equities? >> yes. >> i'm now pretty cautious. i understand why we are here because ultimately even though before the election the idea was well if trump wins it's going to are carnage. i think because of the congress is now republican, i think this opens the path for trump to actually deliver some of his fiscal stimulus. i get why equities at least snapped back and are now making all time highs but now they are making all time highs. i think really this is a knee jerk reaction. i think there are -- i told the rational argument why they are here but there's definitely irrationality in this because everybody seems to have forgotten about all the risks that a trump presidency presents both from let's just say the risk of a trade war, the risk with regards to politics internationally and particularly here in europe.
you just mentioned the renzi referendum. these risks have gone away. especially with the s&p 500, i get the russell 2000 for sure that's a domestically focused play. for the s&p the only reason for to us be invested in the s&p for the last 12 months is because ultimately yields are really low in the bond space and so you can actually generate some decent dividend yield out of russell 2000. now that the there are is stengthensing these are negative fors for the s&p 500 and while this issue rational euphoric one dimensional view on fiscal stimulus brought us up to these levels, now there's no more upside for the s&p. >> which asset class do you think is more at risk? is it treasuries which has seen a big selloff. it equity? is it the there are? >> i think the there are trade
will continue. i think the dollar will continue to strengthen because ultimately i think the inflation projection is steeper. the fed will raise interest rates in a few weeks. they will paint a picture of steeper rate projection for next year. the dollar trade, the dollar rally continues. yields will continue to climb as a result. definitely for me the asset class most risk of reversing these post-election moves is equities. >> but you also don't want to get out too early. yesterday the point was made presidents and policies they make u turns but inflation and economic growth don't. we might see a little bit of a change in terms of economic strength but it won't happen overnight. this trajectory that everybody is talking about high inflation
measures happening overnight will not happen. >> that's true. also i think people are assuming trump will deliver his fiscal policy immediately, like now. but that's definitely not going to happen either. his fiscal plan he ends up delivering is not going to be as much as he's pretending it will be. there's some interesting subtleties in the mix which makes it particularly difficult. for example the dollar strength is definitely going to be added toby the repatriation of cash that the u.s. multi-nationals probably are going to get the opportunity to bring back home at 10% tax rate than 33%. that's dollar positive. it's also potentially quite positive in the short term for these big multi-nationals. but that move then strengthens the dollar which in the medium term is negative for them. i think it's particularly negative. >> what's the impact on european
equity markets? >> i think the political risk has risen as a result of trump and i think, therefore, that makes the upside potential -- this comes with more risk. i think the ecb will feel like they are going to be forced into extending quantitative easing. another big risk before the end of the year. the ecb meeting in december and how are they going table to extend their qe program. yields rising has helped a little bit but doesn't change the fact they have to alter one of their rules, capital key rule over whatever it might be. >> that means buying european equities? >> you got to be quite clever. buy european equities, let's say that are going to benefit from a cheaper euro. buy european equities that will have u.s. domestic exposure, for example. that's probably what i would be looking at.
>> now at the same time you have the. >> he is in italy trading at a six week low. not a level playing field. we'll have to leave it here. thank you so much for that. e-mail the show, get involved always nice to hear from you nice and early so we can use your comments to our guests. we're on twitter @streetsignscnbc. >> find ut at carolin roth and louisa bojesen. >> stimulus coming up amazon looks to hit a home run. we'll have more after this short break. don't go away. welcome back
to ask her about the impact from trump's success in the united states and the comparisons being made to her campaign in france. >> translator: the reality is that i was the only politician that definitively supported the defeat of hillary clinton and to consider that donald trump's policies subjects the concerns of my country were positive. the refusal of wild globalization, the refusal of massive immigration, the refusal of the intrusion into other countries that in reality contributed to the rise of fundamentalist israel lammists and let them become more powerful. also the refusal of these free trade treaties like the one hillary clinton was ready to sign between the u.s. and the european union. that would be completely devastating for the french economy. it's true the election of donald trump is a return of people. a return to the nation.
unquestionably we had some points in common with donald trump. because we hope for independence for our country. a return of power. and a calming of relations around the world. >> when donald trump won, the french establishment woke up seemed frightened and said wow, marie le pen could win in france. does it por tend good things for you? >> translator: i think the elites have lived too long among themselves. we live in a world where globalization has forgotten and put aside the people, the people's interests, aspirations and dreams. they have acted like carnivores who use the world to enrich themselves. whether it's the election of donald trump or brexit, the elites have realized that the people have stopped listening to them. that the people want to determine their futures and in a
perfectly democratic framework regain control of their destiny and that panics them because they are losing the power that they have given themselves. so, yes, in these conditions, if the french people too wish to regain their independence, wish to regain control of their country and wish to reinforce the elements of security, the borders, the rule of law, economic patriotism then i will be elected president. >> the shorthand to describe your party in the united states is frequently anti-semitic, anti-muslim. what do you say to people who use that description for the national front? >> translator: the description that has been used for the national front in the united states is exactly the description that was used for the supporters of donald trump in france. each is as false as the other. it's a way for the system to discredit those who refuse to play by the rules of the system. we cannot let ourselves be
infa infantilized or stereotyped. the deplorable image that's been made of the united states is insulting and misleading as the deplorable image of donald trump and his supporters in france. >> the polls say you could win. does that make you nervous? >> translator: no. it doesn't make me nervous at all. it makes me impatient. i see my country falling. i see in the eyes of strangers this lack of understanding when they arrive and they say but where is france? i also want france to come back and for france to rediscover its power. its impatience that motivates me today. quick, kwi let's put our beautiful coveted country back on its feet. >> stay with cnbc as later on we'll speak with scottish prime minister as we discuss her country's future.
now italian ten year yields have soared ahead of the 4th of december italian referendum in which voters will head to the polls to approve or reject constitutional reforms put forward by the italian prime minister. the leader has said he will step down if a no vote prevails. > a rejection of the reforms what it would mean for the italian economy. >> it's very important. objectively this is a change that has been attempted by at least two governments or three before him without success. this is, let's say a major reform april a reform that enables other reforms because if you reform the senate, then the legislative process because more direct and therefore other
reforms have a better chance to go through without being changed so much that they are basically useless at the end. so in that sense it's kind of an obtuse reform. people say with these reforms why are we coping with the senate. we've been having it for many years. what's the big deal? the big deal is this is the slowing the largest slowing factor in the change in the italian reform system. so it needs to be addressed. what would happen if yes or no win, of course you have a lot of people talking about it. my view is that probably as always before the last few days before you might recall in this country too, everything becomes hinged upon what happens in the vote and then after you see that maybe it's not as big as it was originally thought. but this time i believe, that if
italy votes yes then all of a sudden europe will say okay italy is indeed progressing on the reform path and, therefore, the pressure is maybe moving to another country that will go into the electoral cycle next which would be france. if it is no, then the investor will say okay europe is -- italy is starting to become a little bit slow in the process, it was doing okay now it's slowing, we're worried, what happens about the government, how about france, blah, blah. all of a sudden things that are a problem become a bigger problem because the perception is that there's no push to change. >> enel has raised its dividend pay out while reserving the option of a share buy back in its 2017 to 2019 strategic plan. italy's largest utility will make a 4.7 euro digitized investment to stream line
operations. the group has set a target of 1 billion euros of savings in 2019. u nrcuniper said earnings fe first nine months rose by 54%. it was recently spun off from the german utility giant and follows its peer which announced cost-cutting measures. kingfisher has pooftd 1.8% rise in third quarter sales boosted by strong demand in britain and poland. europe's largest home improvement retailer says it remains confident it can deliver on its ambitious growth plan. american bank citigroup has joined jpmorgan at the top of the g-20 systematically important banks. the 30 lenders are required to
hold extra capital corresponding to the level of risk they represent to global markets should they collapse. citi and bank of america and wells fargo had their capital bumpers increased by several billion dollars while hbsc and morgan stanley were deemed less risky. there's a very, very simple reason as to why some banks were increased. it's the dollar strength. >> should have known. at the same time speaking of dollar strength, euro weakness ecb has added citibank's irish arm to its supervision list. the holding company has around 46 billion euros in assets and houses the u.s. lenders, european retail banking operation. >> ecb president mario draghi warned about reading too much in european markets reaction to donald trump's election victory. mario draghi likeened the u.s. election result to the brexit vote and he said both events
would likely have a long term impact that's difficult to assess at this stage. luxury stocks are seeing losses. the slump in watch exports continued in the move october just to give you a little more detail. they were down in nominal terms. a steep drop because of the anti-corruption drive by the chinese government. shipments to hong kong were down 21%. shipments to the u.s. were down 16%. and in hong kong, it's worth noting there's a lot of unsold inventory that needs be marked down and analysts this morning were pretty surprised about the weak numbers. one saying that watch makers they've voluntarily exported less in october in order not to build up more stock at retailers. i guess kind of makes sense. it does. why do we still see such disappointing numbers? >> i'm not sure. they have been disappointing for
quite some time. worth noting earlier this month we saw the controlling shareholder do away with the ceo rule and a lot of analysts were speculating because they need to be nimble on their feet to deal with massive drop in sales. >> my question really is this a bigger structural change in the chinese consumer's behavior hong kong behavior because it's not just a one off the anti-corruption drive, it's maybe a bigger structural shift in terms of appetite for luxury. >> could be. and legal changes with regards to gift giving. my first swiss watch had a coca-cola cam on it. everybody in denmark wanted to be or have something that was american. very special to get an american gift. as a child anyway. not sure i want a coca-cola
watch now. >> it would look great on you. genmab increased expectations. >> long haul and short haul pilots at lufthansa will stay on a 24 hour strike. the stoppage is over a long standing wage dispute. its budget subsidiaries including german wings and euro wings won't be affected. this is the 14th strike between lufthansa and the unions. i believe more than a year. 14. you would think that german companies never strike but they do. >> like on christmas or something like that. ibm cloud is making the largest commitment it's ever made to one country at a single point in
time as it triple its cloud capacity in the uk. the company is opening four new data centers. i want says client demand for the cloud is soaring. this follows as google and facebook committed further investments. amazon has held talks with the national basketball association, major league baseball and national football league as it explores live sports streaming. the details are still unclear it is understood amazon aims to create an exclusive sports package with prime membership. twitter and facebook have similar deals having a deal with nfl to stream thursday night games in the 2016 season. >> comcast, nbc universal has invested an extra $200 million in online media company. the new investment ups nbc use to million dollars. gives buzz feed valuation of $1.7 billion. they aim to include buzz feed's
inventory. nbc universal is the parent company of cnbc. senior vice president and head of global mtm research joins us this morning. good morning. >> good morning. >> we need to talk a little bit about apple and about what's going on with regards to the tech sector after the trump election win and whether we anticipate to see some very big changes. i did note this report apple will start assembling iphones in the u.s. >> i think it's because we think of it really the policies of the president-elect in many ways sort of promoting domestic manufacturing, domestic services as opposed to globalization. i think apple is the epitomy of globalization. best way to look at that is the margin. we look at apple it has an
operating margin that's quite outstanding when you compare it to other companies. you mentioned ibm just now. they have 14 margin. samsung closest global peer 13% operating margin. it's an issue i think for them. if the policies of the president-elect are very much going to promote the domestic market. >> i look at the tech industry opposelying the first to suffer when look at visas for tech workers. you're lacking skilled labor in this particular industry. and now donald trump one of the things he said that he wants to really tighten the amount of visas given to foreign workers to come over and the attorney general jeff sessions if he gets his way is anti-immigration. this will hurt the tech sector massively. >> it has that risk certainly who rely very heavily for skilled labor coming over to the u.s. that's one issue. i think for the manufacturing
based companies such as apple, for example, we can do the assembly potentially in the u.s. however very, very difficult, as you say, the panels, the l.e.d. panel, the screens, many memory factories in taiwan. it will take you three to four quarters to get facilities in the u.s. from scratch at multi-billion dollar investments of course. big issue for them. >> bottom line you're saying tech will be a very difficult area to invest in 2017 and you have to be more selective. where can you hide? aren't all the tech companies multi-nationals at this point? >> not all tech companies multi-nationals or not those relying on harboring manufacturing. services in respect to cloud services or facebook, for example and social media and the movement away from traditional media or the e gaming stroks,
electronic arts of the world which are immune. >> what are the other policies that's been getting a lot of attention is the tax or cash repatriation on the part of tech. apple has $200 billion in offshore cash. once that is repatriated what happens to that cash. can investors hope for a bigger share buy backs, higher dividends, more cap x. what are we looking at? >> we look at real estate and energy in united states that's $1.7 trillion it is in in cash offshore. if that comes back if we that have policy of repatriation, a tax holiday as expected a common belief that will be used for buy backs, for extra dividends, et cetera. we take a very different view. i think to get that kind of a holiday at 10% tax rate will if a ik it needs invested for growth again in domestically,
manufacturing, in jobs, creating full employment. that's a very different proposition. in the technology industry to your previous points we've enjoyed this globalization trade for long time. there will be some takes but i don't think necessarily tax repatriation alone will necessarily be a benefit for the tech industry. >> thank you very much. president and head of global tnt. we need to take a short break. check out world markets live. our blog that runs throughout the entire european trading day. lots more coming back on the back of the break. find us as twitter. we'll see you in a moment.
welcome back to the show. yes you're still watching "street signs". i'm carolin roth. >> i'm louisa bojesen. your headlines this morning. >> basic stocks are energized after a rally in the u.s. send all four markets to all time highs. >> enel raises its dividend. ceo telling cnbc of his concerns around president renzi's referendum. >> europe will say italy is indeed progressing on the reform path. if italy votes no then the
investor would say okay europe is, italy is starting to become a little bit slow. >> watch out. swiss watch exports slump over 16% as the slow down continues in october. donald trump takes to you tube to announce that he'll withdraw the u.s. from the transpacific trade partnership on his first day in office. let's have a quick peek at u.s. futures and we're expecting more buying today. the s&p 500 seen up by 4.5 points. due jones by 52 and nasdaq set to gain 20 points. this is after you heard at any time dow and s&p and nasdaq and russell 2000 closed at a record high for the first time since 1999. this is as energy stocks really outperformed, they are up 2.2% as far as the sector is concerned. this is as oil prices rose once
again to a three week high. there's optimism back in the market that this opec deal will come to fruition. i want to show you what's going on in the european market. we're taking heart what happened in asia and the u.s.. the dax up by half of 1%. stronger gains for the ftse 100. metals and mining that are driving this outperformance in term of the sectors in europe this morning. i want to show you what's going on in the currency markets. seems like the dollar strength is stalling somewhat. the dollar index pausing at 13 year high. we're seeing a little bit of strength coming through from the dow against the u.s. dollar changing hands at 110.67. we saw this earthquake and tsunami warning in japan and that sent some investors fleeing into the japanese yen. perceived safe-haven. i want to point out what's happening in terms of cable, pound at 1.2488.
yesterday this pair was up 1.2%. in part people say because of comment of theresa may talking about an easier transition in the uncertainty of brebt. it was curious because a lot of u.s. buyers came in and propped up this pair in part because a lot of people say the sell off in the pound sterling has been completely overdone. maybe some bargain hunting in the pound sterling. opec experts have made progress on confirming details of its plans to cut output in the first dave two day meeting of the group's high level meeting while some experts said iran had reservations about the detail of the deal. several delegates expressed optimism that a final agreement would be reached by november 30th when that meeting with the oil ministers take place in vienna. oil prices have risen to its highest level. brent crude at 49.53. wti crude bouncing by some 4% in
yesterday's trading session and adding another 1.1% this morning at 48.75. >> let's talk about emerging markets. brazilian government slashed its 2017 growth forecast to 1% from 1.6%. the south american economy struggles to shake off its worse recession in eight decades. brazil president has warned that the country's national debt could balloon to the size of its gdp within eight years if public spending is not controlled and fiscal reforms are not passed soon. good morning simon. i was speaking to somebody from brazil who does fund management out of brazil basically and you're saying there's still a lot of opportunities in brazil and are confident that these reforms will be passed and the government is on track. do you agree >> i would agree. if we look at some companies
there still seems to be opportunities. justin last week there's some noise especially around the aides in congress he needs get that bill through the senate. we need to see that. if that stalls then we have a problem. >> how worry sorisome are the demonstrations? small demonstrators calling for a military coup, others say we need to see more political unrest coming from the people. >> the recent elections and the city elections that you saw have shown very clearly that people are dissatisfied with what in the last four to eight years. you saw a massive change in governors. rio, new impulse there's. they want change and they are going against anti-austerity measures or going for anti-austerity measures and this is not supportive of the government. >> let's talk about trump the elephant in the room and what it means for emerging market
assets. would we see a selloff. with yields at 2.3% or so for the ten year in the u.s., which countries are going to be think it hardest? >> i think you have a couple of, a number of groups. those that will be hit by this drive for protectionism, mexico and colombia, 40% of their exports go to the u.s.. more open emerging markets korea, taiwan, czech republic, hungary and a couple of lesser economies. 18% of these guys, 18% exports to gdp ratio in some cases. these are the countries that get hit the most. >> on the other hand, you could argue now that donald trump wants to rip up trade agreements primarily tpp in his youtube address yesterday many of these countries in asia they won't care too much about that because they are already trade sewing much amongst themselves, specifically china. can that be a silver lining?
>> you're absolutely right. this is the massive change we've had in the last ten to 15 years in emerging markets and globally. china makes up 15% of global gdp. only ten years ago it was 5%. emerging markets 60% of the emerging markets go to emerging markets. there's this change you have there. after all the united states is a relatively close economy 10% of exports of gdp ratio. you can see this in the movement of currency, the euro has been hit, not only emerging market currencies. >> isn't russia just the trump trade of emerging markets that rush and putin and trump they are very much singing off the same hymn sheet be it isis and trade issues. wouldn't you assume the trade would be sanctions would end on russia under trump or be milder under trump? >> i think a lot of people, fund
managers are trading that trade, if you like. you can see this reflected in the movement of bonds especially after the u.s. elections. russian spreads hardly moved whereas others really expanded quite strongly. so i think that trade is definitely being played and i think one we have to look into in the next several months. >> russian debt could be more interesting. >> absolutely. after all, let's face it, the sanctions were based on the presidential decree an executive order. so that depends on the u.s. president himself. >> why do you think a trump presidency would be so bad for turkey, not specifically the trump presidency but the rise in yields? >> look -- >> is anything bad for turkey now not just trump. >> there's a lot of i die 0 is
in ext-- i die diosyncracies. this hit the perception of foreign investors and getting people worried out there. obviously against the backdrop of increasing u.s. treasury yields, higher dollar costs higher currencies get hit first. turkey is amongst those grouch currencies. what we need to see is the central bank sengds us a message that it's on top of things and needs to react to the depreciation. >> thank you so much for that. now donald trump and argentinian president have both denied local media reports that trump asked the south american leader for a business favor when he called to congratulate the president-elect on his election win. the argentinian journalist reported on his news program trump asked him the president the argentinian president to
authorize a building that he's constructing in buenos aires. "the guardian" journalist described the alleged conversation she says that argentina is welcoming foreign investment and trump replied he has $150 million investment in argentina stalled because of a building permit in bueno air es. >> donald trump says he'll use his first detain office to withdraw the u.s. from the transpacific partnership in a video released by the trump transition team. the republican outlined his policy plans for his first 100 days in the white house. the 12 nation trade deal was signed by president obama earlier this year but yet to be ratified by the senate. the president-elect has met with more prospective members of his administration. let's get out to tracie potts who joins us from washington. what are we hearing? >> reporter: so we're hearing first of all that rudy giuliani
who has been considered for secretary of state is also being considered as director of national intelligence. newt gingrich who has been very close to this campaign said he prefers rudy giuliani over mitt romney because of his temperament. he calls gull a fighter. secretary of state still unsettled as we go into this holiday. gingrich will not be part of the administration. he confirmed that himself saying he rather take an advisory sort of a big picture advisory role as opposed to focusing on any one department. lots of names out there. we still don't know who are doing what. they are working half day today before he heads off to his florida estate for thanksgiving. as you noted he put out that video, not a news conference. he hasn't had one in three weeks since he's been elected. his spokeswoman says that they will do one at some point. she did not say when. she insisted he's been working 18 hour days in a still getting
questions about conflict of interest after his d.c. hotel here hosted a reception for hundreds of foreign diplomats. there were giveaways and free stays. he tweeted only the media was making a big deal of this. the attorneys assure them there's nothing illegal with any cross over between trump organization which includes the hotels and the presidency. >> before we let you go, coming back to that youtube video he mentioned a lot of areas that are his key priorities. there's one thing that he left out and i wonder whether that has any significance. he didn't nengs mention the rep the affordable care act. >> reporter: it's interesting he didn't mention it. here on capitol hill lawmakers said it's one of the first things they will do. remember they talked about repeal and replace. replace part we haven't heard a lot about. >> thank you so much. tracie potts from nbc in
washington. now on a programming note our colleagues stateside have an exclusive interswru the commerce secretary penny pritzker. she ill welcome back on "power lunch". talking about trump and trade and other topics. >> i spoke to her last year about ttip. i wonder what her thoughts will be whether ttip will see lights of day. i mean tpp is 40% of countries involved in tpp. they account for 40% of the global economy. it's a huge group. tpp will be meaningless without the u.s. george the japanese prime minister shinzo abe. he told authorities that a u.s. withdrawal would disturb the fundamental benefits adding other members of the 12 nation deal had not discussed moving
ahead without american involvement. now the strong earthquake that hit northeastern japan in the early morning hours forced many manufacturers to halt operation and halted businesses. we have more on this from the nikkei. we saw the nikkei closing just a fraction in positive territory. >> reporter: yes. so all in all there wasn't that much of damage but still pretty frightening magnitude 7.4 earthquake hit off the coast of fukushima prefecture just before 6:00 this morning and even here in tokyo which is about 300 kilometers away from fukushima, i jumped out of bed and the room was swing from side to side. it was pretty frightening. area where a massive tsunami struck a nuclear power plant five years ago and japan's meteorological agency sent out an advisory. they are lifted now but tidal waves over a meter were
observed. the fukushima daiichi is undergoing a reprocess. it restarted an hour and a half later. so far no radiation leaks or unusual radioactive activity. now the area is host to many manufacturers which were affected by today's tremors. nissan halted operations at its engine factory and no one was hurt but the firm suspended production for the day. and a chemical maker, fire broke out of its lab and temporarily suspend operation. unexpected unexpected unexpectedly pokemon game was suspended. over 10,000 players have come and searched for monsters. unfortunately due to today's
earthquake the firm announced that the event would be ending day a day earlier than schedule. that's all from the nikkei. >> thank you so much. an earthquake does affect everyone even the monsters on pokemon go. it's that time of year. we'll look at outlooks for 2017. will the uncertainty of 2016 be matched for next year. that's after this short break. stick around. (my hero zero by lemonheads)
a monastery which is the largest of its kind in iraq was rest ransacked. the site represents a symbolic center of christianity in iraq. >> enel set a target of 1 billion euros in 2017. enel ceo spoke with steve about the company's evolving strategy. >> maybe more of a change. basically what we're trying to present here is something that will evolve our three year strategy. we've started three years ago. we are basically one year ahead of the plan we presented at that time. for several reasons. but it's good. and so things are progressing
faster and better than expected and planned. it's time to put together some new targets and new objectives that are more challenging and to take advantage of the good work done so far. so there's a huge, huge change in the way in which the company is evolving and what kinds of things we're trying to do, which direction we need to go. and only because we're performing better but because the world around us, believe it or not, has changed. now in other news hitting our wires. head of the italian bank bail out fund is saying that they are to present an offer to buy bad loans of four rescued banks. the head of the italian bank bail out says the bid will be conditional on lenders buy bad loans at those banks.
so we're still trying to figure out how to unwind some of these bad loans in italy, essentially. the global economy is moving in the right direction. that's according to barclays 2017 global report which says that although growth could extend into next year quote an unusually uncertain outlook may hamper trade relations. let's dig deep near to that report. do you think that maybe 2017 could be the year where fiscal stimulus will take precedent over monetary policy stimulus? >> i think we already -- it's already under way. it has been coming. look at china it's massive and bit opaque the way they merit and see what's going on in local governments. to some extent the european union maybe not officially but you see how many countries have really gone over there. their fiscal deficits they agreed with. and also the monetary policies
giving a lot of room on the fiscal side by reducing interest rates. so you already have probably more stimulus than was anticipated and now, obviously with the trump election win, potentially 2% of gdp stimulus or so next year and the year after from the u.s. >> there's still so much uncertainty around as we saw there in the introduction and you say that's set to continue for 2017. how should the central banks manage this uncertainty. i guess they can't take their feet completely off the pedal, they still need to be on to it some extent. >> this is our assessment. central banks have to weigh these different aspects. on one hand they are finding the fiscal stimulus they want to. but they got to maybe not with the same kind of tilt that they wanted to because they got it in somewhat uncoordinated fashion. got it with a lot of criticism of central banks and got it now which you reported already with
a lot of protectionism and anti-trade flavor if you want. then of course that puts them in a position where they have to look at the shorter impact from fiscal impact which is pro growth, pro inflation. some things like protectionism are impede meants to growth and productivity gains so they have to look at the short term definitely better growth more inflation, longer term, productivity may not rise. i get higher debt levels. how to weigh this? bottom line we think central banks will probably be relatively cautious in tightening monetary policy so therefore i think that's still a good environment for equities. this is our position. >> i want to ask you the same question i asked a number of guests in the last couple of days the point of whether or not we're overdoing this inflation expectation and, again, i refer to a piece i read on how policies and presidents make u turns but not economies. do you think we've potentially are running a risk of
overestimating this inflation increase that everybody is anticipating? >> i think it depends. first of all, you know, it's very, very diverse. we see inflation going up in u.s., wage growth climbing over 2%. you look at japan still at zero. if you think by april we think inflation would be over 2, european inflation wean the energy boost of 1.4, and japan can be happy to have positive inflation. what we could see and this is in a way the risk, we could see some type of inflation in the u.s. if you really shield yourself off you create a lot of tariffs. you constrain domestic capacities and you inject fiscal stimulus. but you get low growth and you'll -- >> i guess we're hearing expectations fed will hike rates
bay billion times next year. does it have to? >> we think the fed will go into december and go two times next year. actually in the second half. first one, no one knows what will happen. back to inflation, one thing that's in the back ground is china. china has been doing a lot for growth, a lot for reflation if you see the demand for commodities. you see currency growing weaker. a lot of uncertainties in the financial sector. so china certainly to discontinue with what they've been providing to the global economy. you can get quickly some deflationary impulse. >> thank you for that. christian keller head of barclays. we were talking about fiscal stimulus. german finance minister said it calls for fiscal stimulus cannot be directed at germany which has increased investments. others would disagree. that's it for today's show.
. good morning. market rally all four main u.s. indices soar to record highs for the first time since 1999. oil shock. crude prices continue to climb in anticipation of this month's big opec meeting. >> trump transition, the president-elect promises to withdraw from a 12 nation trade deal on his first day in office. it's tuesday, november 22nd, 2016. "worldwide exchange" begins right now. ♪ welcome to "worldwide