tv Street Signs CNBC December 15, 2016 4:00am-5:01am EST
welcome to "street signs." i'm nancy hungerford. these are your headlines. >> the gap between the u.s. and german bond yields hit the highest level in 16 years after the fed projects three rate hikes next year. european banks rally, but the euro comes under significant pressure after the fomc projection sends the dollar to a 14-year high. edf shares sink to the bottom of the stoxx 600 after lowering its earnings forecast
for 2017. nbc news reports that russian president vladimir putin was personally involved in the campaign to disrupt the election and divide american allies by undermining the u.s. as a credible global leader. good morning. welcome to "street signs." big day with global markets reacting to the fed decision. in europe a decision coming from the norwegian central bank. the expectations going into the decision were for the rates to remain unchanged. that's the decision from the norges bank today. rates unchanged at 0.5%. the dollar just a quarter percent weaker. interesting that we continue to see the dollar index moving higher overnight after the fed expectations for next year were more hawkish.
the norwegian central bank says activity in the economy is picking up at a somewhat slower pace than projected, and that prospects of inflation will be lower than projected as well. this will come as interest to many who have been watching the moves in oil prices, wondering if a sustained momentum to the expectati expectation. a slightly higher probability of a decrease than an increase in key policy rates in the year ahead. also worth noting, some analysts wondered whether or not the bank was at its lower bound when it comes to reducing rates. they suggest the key policy rate will most likely remain at the same level in the period ahead, but a slightly higher probability of a decrease in the key rate next year. also some data on the eurozone. we've been watching pmi data come out throughout the morning.
specifically interesting when you look at germany coming out neutral, a bit better than expected on manufacturing, weaker on services. for the overall eurozone, composite pmi flash estimate of 53.9, just shy of the forecast for 54. this is the rate in december. when you look at the manufacturing component, that's coming in at 54.9. and that is higher than the forecast of 53.8. again, similar story for the eurozone that we saw in germany. the services disappointing slightly. december services pmi at 53.1, that's the flash estimate. that comparing to an estimate of 53.9. the euro still showing weakness against the green back after that huge rally we saw overnight. we'll get into that in more detail in a bit. we have to got to bring you up to speed with how european equities are trading. a bit of a mixed picture. stoxx 600 holding on to gains
just shy of 0.2%. we've seen financials und underperform, to the down side, we've seen miners. let's give you a closer look at those sectors. surprises with wti dipping overnight as well. we will get into oil and gas in a minute. if we can give you a look at banks, higher by 1.7%. technology holding the ground higher by 1% on the down side. basic resources off 1.9%. utilities also weaker. giving a look at insurance, also pointing higher in tune with financials. 0.6%. one of the biggest stories of the night is what's going on in the bond curve. the ten-year yield still pushing higher, about 2.598. leaving many wondering when that ten-year will hit 3%. we'll get to that question in a minute. you can see the ten-year uk
pushing higher, 1.487. german buns at 0.367. the japanese bund yield, 0.088. the u.s. federal reserve raised its key interest rate for the second time in a decade and increased the target range by 25 basis points. the fomc says it sees three further hikes in 2017, up from a previous estimate of two. that was a big surprise for markets. despite the higher guidance, janet yellen also acknowledged the new presidency brings a level of uncertainty for the central bank. answering repeated questions about donald trump, she addressed the rally in equities which has been fueled by expectations of more fiscal stimulus. >> the changes, the financial market changes that you described, particularly the increase in stock prices, increase in longer term rates
and the strengthening of the dollar suggests many market participants anticipate expansion or fiscal policies that would raise interest rates somewhat in the united states relative to abroad, and would cause a strengthening in the dollar. but market participants are uncertain, too, but i would expect changes in our understanding of what is going to happen to also affect market prices in final markets as we move forward. >> there you have it. that's janet yellen talking about the changes underway in the marketplace. for more let's bring in nick garzite from jp morgan asset management. nick, good morning. what happens next really? you look at yields on the u.s. treasury specifically, still pushing higher this morning. how much higher do they have to go? >> they go a lot higher.
by the end of next-year people should be eyeballing a ten-year note around 3.5%. the fed is talking about three rate hikes next year, the reality is probably four if not more. we're in a new regime. think of the underlying dynamics. we will get a big fiscal boost. that's great for growth, great for inflation and terrible for fixed income. >> some investors were caught by surprise when the fed hinted at three. you're saying four or more. that suggests we have a big adjustment to go in bond markets when you look at how investors are pricing expectations today. what happens when we get above that 3% level on the ten-year? will we look at liquidity concerns? a negative knock on effect on equities? >> no ultimately that's the ten-year rising for the right reason. it's rising because intrinsically growth is stronger, inflation is stronger. remember, we are in a new regime now. people need to latch on to that. monetary policy is dead, it's
about fiscal policy taking over. that really ignites froth. >> the big difference between fiscal policy and monetary policy is the fiscal policy has plenty of loops to jump through to get approval. there's so much uncertainty still over what exactly donald trump's fiscal package will look like, what he can get through to congress. does that suggest there are still some risks in investors getting ahead of themselves or is it coming either way? >> it's coming either way. yes, there's some implementation risk, but i expect a lot of those policies will get through. the other thing it does is ignites animal spirits. when you get that going, think what economies are. it ignites confidence. gives investors the ability to invest that marginal dollar more. that's great for growth. >> do you see those animal spirits jumping across the atlantic? will we see coattail effect? >> there will be a spill swroov
effect. this year europe could well outgrow the united states. already you have europe growing above trend the ecb is still remarkably accommodative. they've just given us more forward guidance and extended qe to the end of next year. >> that may explain why we're seeing this massive gap still between the u.s. and the german bund yields. highest in 26 years. you seem to think growth prospects are better than what you expect. >> it's about the differential in central bank policy. the ecb, look at inflation, it's not satisfactory. even in 2019, they have inflation at 1.7%. way beneath target. they keep going on that monetary easing. we see a wider spread germany, u.s. and euro still takes the strain. >> if you are invested in european fixed income, where do
you go? >> high yield. when you look at european high yield, great offer, 4%. when you look at the credit risk there, all that growth underwrites credit risk. that's an environment where default rates go lower and lower. >> the other unique event is the le election risks, first and foremost in france. you are nervous as an investor? >> no look at this year. we had two major shocks, brexit and the election of donald trump. ultimately what markets do is go back to the fundamentals. they look at the impact on growth, inflation, and the case there is more robust. >> i do wonder if it is a cause for concern for the ecb, for president draghi to hold pat.
>> draghi has been crystal clear. he looks at inflation. that's the one lens he looks at. way beneath target and even with that latest increase in oil prices, it doesn't do enough to boost eurozone inflation. >> all right. nick, real pleasure to have you on. nick gartside from jp morgan asset management. we've had the fed, we had the norwegian central bank and also looking at the swiss national bank which has also kept rates on hold. the smb decided to maintain interest rates at the current record low as they continue to contend with a significantly overvalued swiss franc. they would remain active in the fs market and kept the full-year growth and inflation targets unchanged. we'll speak to the snb chairman, thomas jordan, later on on cnbc. the bank of england will
announce a rate decision today at 13:00 cet when they are expected to leave rates unchanged. we'll bring you that decision a bit later on. russian president vladimir putin was personally involved in the campaign to disrupt the u.s. election, that comes according to an exclusive report by nbc news. nbc's senior investigative correspondent cynthia mcfadden has the full story. >> reporter: tonight, nbc news can report that vladimir putin was personally involved in the russian attempt to disrupt the u.s. election. two senior intelligence officials with direct access to all the information tell nbc news the new intelligence is derived from diplomatic sources and others including spies working for america's allies. specifically a high level intelligence official tells nbc news, putin's role was directing the use of the hacked material. putin's objectives were multi-faceted. what began as a vendetta against
hillary clinton morphed into an effort to show corruption in american politics and to split off key american allies by creating the image that other countries could not depend on the u.s. to be a credible global leader anymore. >> he's had a vendetta against hillary clinton. that's been known for a long time. he wants to discredit american democracy and make us weaker in terms of leading the liberal democratic order. and most certainly he likes president-elect trump's views on russia. now it sounds like we have evidence to support those hypotheses. well, get in touch with the show. send us your thoughts on all things d.c. politics related and the fed market reaction. we'll follow it through all asset classes this morning. we want to hear from you. firstname.lastname@example.org or get in touch with us on
good morning. welcome back to "street signs." we've been taking a closer look at the dollar's sharp rally after the fed move yesterday. now taking a look at the japanese yen, which has fallen to a ten-month low versus the greenback after that decision from the fomc which they signal they will rise rates at a faster rate than many in the market had expected. as you can see, the dollar still gaining against the japanese currency by 0.6%. pauli
pauline has a look at the broader market. >> the tokyo market was the only market that benefited from the stronger u.s. dollar and the weaker yen as the nikkei 225 closed up a tenth of a percent. it did lose ground closer to the end of the session. asian markets are closing lower more broadly because of that stronger dollar and the pressure on emerging market currencies. it's also putting pressure on the resource sector, especially in australia the asx down 0.8%. the asx mining index down 2.3%. hong kong ending down 1.8%. energy stocks leading the declines there. central bank activity, the hong kong monetary authority also raised rates by 25 basis points. the hong kong dollar is pegged
to the u.s. dollar. bank of korea holding rates steady for the sixty month in a row. the bank wants to take that wait and see approach to see how the fed rate hike impacts the economy. back to you. >> the government should fight for the city of london in brexit negotiations and should not be ashamed to stand up for britain's banks expertise. that's according to the house of lords eu financial affairs subcommittee. the committee is believed to have been warned that big banks will start making decisions next year as to their long-term future in the uk. the report went on to say the danger is that in the absence of clarity firm also restructure or relocate on the basis of a worst case scenario. elsewhere, eurozone lenders put a short term debt relief deal for greece on hold. greek prime minister alexis s
cyprus announced the program. the esm already criticized the speech on monday, but a parliamentary vote will be held today in an effort to rally domestic support. and let's bring you the latest in italy the new prime minister, paolo gentiloni, won a confidence vote in the senate allowing his coalition government to take office. he faced criticism from opposition parties over his decision to keep almost all of matteo renzi's key cabinet members. shares in bmps were temporarily suspended in trading after rising almost 7%. the board of the lender will discuss plans to launch a last ditch attempt to raise 5 billion euros. a decision will be announced later today. as we highlighted at the start of the show, we are seeing outperformance in the sector. you can see euro stocks banks higher by 2%. strength in deutsche bank.
credit suisse higher by 3%. across the board looking at green arrows. bmp higher by 3.4%. joining us now for an outlook on the sector is the senior analyst from axiom investments. thank you for joining us. so much to discuss. let's get with the broader outlook. what do you think is driving outperformance for banks? >> typically new rate environment following the fed hike yesterday. potentially good omen for rates as well in the eurozone, but also in sterling. banks will be age to transform more risk and generate more profits over the next 3 to 5 years. that's what the equity market is watching. >> which banks do you think are most positioned to benefit from the rate hike? we have the bank of england
expecting to hold, the ecb doesn't appear to go anywhere soon. who benefits? >> global banks, if you think about some banks in the uk, like hsbc, that has a balance sheet in dollars, but also some banks active in the u.s., typically the large commercial banks like bnp, social general, and maybe deutsche bank. >> and those are some of the top gainers today. let's talk in more detail about the situation in italy. highway optimistic are you that bmps can get this resolved by year-end? >> they went high early in order to pitch their industry plan as early as last july. when you look at what unicredit
announced on tuesday, it seems like monte dei paschi could get away with less capital, a bit mpls to offload. as we say in italian, [ speaking foreign language ] and they could benefit stepping back and how they could optimize their transacti transaction. >> you'll have to give us the italian translation on that one. do you have a preferred bank? >> unicredit. i have been impressed by the scale of changes and transformation that the new french paratrooper is taking to the country. >> it is expensive. we are talking about a serious sum there. you think he can deliver?
>> yes, i believe he can deliver. it gives high level of power and ownership to his staff, time as we well. he definitely tries to give interest to the organization. when you look at unicredit for investors, it's commercial, simple bank, which in fact, if you believe that the eurozone and the eu will tease, it's a good place to sit. >> so nice to have you in the past. thank you for joining us this morning. >> thank you. let's give you a check on shares of edf, they have slipped to the bottom of the stoxx 600 after trimming its 2017 outlook on weaker expectations of nuclear output. the french utility says it now expects ebita of between 13.7 billion to 14.3 billion euros in
2017. investors don't like that news. shares off about 12% now. this comes after edf's board approved the partial sale of the company's power grid unit to the state bank. and to fly and to serve. a promise some british airways cabin crew may not keep this service. more than 2500 union members have voted to walk out on december 21st. saying the airline's pay rate is indefensible. a statement says it is disappointed the union is creating uncertainty for customers. travelers can't seem to get a break this holiday season. as we count down to the holiday, so much more coming up on "street signs." fresh data from the uk on retail sales, this ahead of the big bank of england decision. stay right here.
good morning. welcome back to "street signs." i'm nancy hungerford. these are your headlines. >> the gap between the u.s. and german bond yields hit the highest level in 16 years after the fed projects three rate hikes next year. european banks rally, but the euro comes under significant pressure after the fomc projection sends the dollar to a 14-year high.
mediaset sees its worst decline in four months after vivendi raises its stake in the firm to 20% and threatens a hostile takeover. nbc news reports that russian president vladimir putin was personally involved in the campaign to disrupt the u.s. election, and divide american allies by undermining the u.s. as a credible leader. good morning. welcome back to "street signs." it is a busy day of economic data. the latest hitting the wires is uk november retail sales data. we're looking at sales increase of 5.9% year over year compared to october. that was in line with forecasts, but also marks a slowdown from october where we saw a rate of 7.2%. that annual rate of increase is
5.9%, slowing a expected. when you look at the retail s e sal sales, 0.5% month over month, an increase annually of 6.6%. that's higher when you look at fuel expectations of 0.1% monthly. overall sales growth slowing but largely in line with forecasts. if you look at the sterling/dollar trade, the dollar continuing to gain grounds. now sterling about 0.3% softer against the greenback. let's give you a look at how u.s. markets are called to open. it was a down day, unusual down day on wall street after the fed decision where investors tuned into the guidance expectations of three rate hikes next year. a lot of investors were positioning for two. no surprise we got a downbeat sentiment on wall street. the dow jones breaking its seven-day winning streak. now looking at a bit of a rebound the dow jones called
higher by 50 points. s&p 500 called higher by 5 points. the nasdaq called higher by just under 9 points. let's give you a broader picture of how european equities are trading. the ftse 100 the only major market in the red, off by 0.16%. a lot of this is down to the miners. softness in basic resources. again, largely tied to the dollar strength. xetra dax pushing higher. french cac 40 higher by 0.6%. the ftse mib higher by 0.7%. we have seen outperformance among the financials. let's bring you up to speed with the latest fx curve. dollar dollar dollar appears to be the story. and the strength continues. euro lower against the green back by 0.3%. dollar pushing higher, still against the japanese yen by 0.6%. the sterling softer and the aussie dollar is basically flat. let's give you a closer look at the commodities space. the impact the dollar is having
there. wti had a brutal day on wall street relatively speaking considering the gains of late. wti falling 3%. that weighed on energy stocks. we are seeing wti move higher by 0.4%. brent crude outperforming by 0.8%. gold is back in the red. we had seen a recovery earlier after gold took a dip on the fed comments. we will be getting deeper into that trade coming up on the show speaking to eugene weinberg from commerzbank. for all you gold bears and bulls out there, stay tuned. let's bring you up to speed on some stock movers today. vivendi said they are raising their stake in berlusconi's mediaset taking its holding to 20%. the move prompted carlo calinda to warn the conglomerate against a hostile takeover of the italian media company. the french media group built up
its stake this week from an initial 3%. shares off about 7.5%. mondelez shares spiked 12% in extended hours trade amid speculation that kraft heinz is looking to acquire the confectionary company. mondelez stock has since pared some initial gains after reuters reported it has not received an approach from kraft. mondelez has been under pressure from william ackman to speed up revenue growth or sell itself to a rival. joining us now is head of european equity strategy from ubs nick nelson. thank you for joining us. we've been through fixed income, looking at the dollar, of course we want your view on equities. what is your reaction to the fed decision? i think it was clearly a move that was fully priced by looking at the futures markets. the move on the dots that people seem to focus on dramatically from two to three hikes next
year may have unnerved some people. we're still thinking we'll get two hikes next year rather than three. there's a risk that it's quicker. from this level, i think it's okay. we're starting from very, very low interest rates, even bond yields, despite the back up to 250 on the ten-year and u.s. treasury, these are low level of yields. for the time being i don't think they worry equities. that could change if it tightens more. >> you're sticking to your forecast of two hikes next year. >> yes. >> how does that play out for european equities? until the pare back on equity last night. many have been stunned. europe seems to be missing out on the party a bit. how does that change in 2017? >> it has. you could unkindly say that europe was underperforming the u.s. on the way down. as you rightly point out, post the u.s. election it was lowbeater into the rally, not what you want from an investment. it's fair to say you're starting
to see last week and this week a bit of a move in europe, breaking out to the upside. i think that's partly because you're seeing money flows coming back. u.s. investors were selling europe for ten months in a row, via etfs and just starting to see some of that come back. a bit of inflows from international investors, and some acknowledgment that the valuations in europe and the stage of the cycle, it's much earlier in the cycle is maybe more attractive. >> we've been spending so much attention and time on the central bank story, but what about profits? europe has already been lagging when it comes to profitability. you look at euro trade today and you could say this is a blessing. >> the last six years in a row the consensus numbers have been optimistic and we've delivered zero earnings growth over that period. when we look into 2017, we do think you'll get your first year of proper earnings growth. we're looking at 8% from the top
down models. that would surprise people. they're so used to the bottom up numbers being downgraded to something disappointing. the u.s. apart from the last 18 months or so has delivered decent growth. >> if you believe in the surprise to the upside, which sectors will benefit the most? >> we've had a brutal move in cyclicals against defensives. if you look at the move which coincided with the low in bond yields around july, cyclicals in europe have outperformed by nearly 30%. that's a sharp move. we are still slightly pro-cyclical, but we wouldn't buy all the cyclical sectors. energy is one area we're overweight. autos is another. construction. software. some of the cyclicals, but not a blanket buying. >> on the down side, you're not particularly hot on transports. why? >> transports, just the inverse side of the energy trade.
the oil price will continue to rise. we're thinking $65 for brent by the end of next year. bullish for the oil producers. positive on the oil integrated sector, negative as a transport cost. you think that outlook holds if we continue to get the dollar strength? >> yes, for us it's much more about supply. yes, we had the opec agreement and then the nonopec agreement, but for us it's about the lack of capex in 2014 and 2016, which means you have less capex potential supply going forward. >> what potential roadblock could prevent this from being the year that europe turns around and catches up with its counterparts is the political risk. you are repositioning ahead of that political risk? >> we had that in our outlook document as a key risk. we navigated so far, the italian
referendum, in march the dutch elections, may and june the french elections, september the german elections, maybe early italian elections. of the big four, five economies almost all of them have major elections or question marks. in the background the article 50 in the uk. it is a big risk in europe, a lot has been priced in. i guess we've been used to this going through 2012 and brexit and the break up of the euro. investors should be wary about those specific events. >> any one political risk that stands out to you as the biggest? if we learned anything, you can't treat all elections, all referendums equally. they have different impacts on the market. some people think the french elections could be big. >> for international investors, that's true. clearly the second biggest economy in europe. clearly a key part of the eurozone. if there was to be some concerns that you would get a party who would be wanting to take france out or have a referendum to take
france out, that would be a huge negative. there is focus on that. maybe less focus on the dutch election in march, maybe less on the german election in september. that seems to be the flash point, the french presidential elections. >> since you touched on brexit, so up uncertainty again today over article 50, when they were trigger it, how, where do you see the ftse going next year. >> we're more cautious on the ftse. we think above 7,000, but not by much. the reason is because we see the domestic economy slowing. you are seeing inflation input prices coming through. that will crimp peoples disposable income. >> the bank of england decision coming up today, expected to hold, in the year ahead, do you think think hike first or cut first? >> there's still a chance we get one more cut. if you think back to 2008 and 2009, they looked through headli headline, they looked through
sterling, they still eased policy. we think the uk economy slows next year to something like 1%. so we don't think they're in a hurry to raise rates. >> thank you very much for joining us. nick nelson, head of european equity strategy at ubs. russian president vladimir putin was personally involved in the campaign to disrupt the u.s. election according to an exclusive report by nbc news. let's get out to nbc's tracie potts who joins us from washington. good morning. we've heard a lot about this report, the cia report, russian hacking, how does this change things? >> it's a big development it points the finger directly at russia's president. first we knew it was russian hackers. then they tried to connect it to the russian government governme.
two separate sources in the intelligence community with direct access to information are telling the u.s. and nbc that they have a high level of confidence that putin was involved here, not specifically in the hacking but in determining and directing where the hacked e-mails and material would go. how it would be used after tfac. that he was basically pulling the strings on how to use that information. how we found out about that, diplomatic sources and even spies of some of our allies is where that information is coming from. so certainlyt' a pretty big development as the results of this election now accepted, but for many americans still in dispute. there's a cloud over how donald trump was elected. now, what's also important to note is that what's not clear,
even among government and intelligence agencies here is why this was happening. we're being told first of all that vladimir putin had a long vendetta against hillary clinton and did it -- hacked the dnc e-mails to some degree to try to smear her. also to discredit democracy and discredit the u.s. with allies. >> one other question is what impact, if any, this will have on the transition team specifically when you look at donald trump's pick for secretary of state, rex tillerson. many raised questions about his relationships with vladimir putin. he worked with russia during his time as exxonmobil chief. is this a distraction? is this an unhelpful headline for the transition team? >> it's something that they'll have to continue to answer questions about. the thing is they're not doing news conferences, so the president-elect is not, so he's not answering these questions directly. it is important to point out that link between putin and the
trump team, or donald trump himself has not been made yet what we don't know is that donald trump was or anyone on his team, before the leelection was colluding with putin to make this happen. though there are plenty of inferences. it's important to note that link has not been made by our intelligence community. you bring up rex tillerson who has this close relationship with putin, because of these developments that's why lawmakers here are so concerned about him being secretary of state. if he's very close with someone who now our intelligence community is pretty sure was trying to hack and influence this election. >> it will certainly make for interesting hearings on the hill. thank you very much for joining us. tracie potts of nbc news. valley came to trump tower yesterday. the president-elect hosted a group of top tech executives to discuss jobs and innovation but
also to patch up relations. john fortt filed this report. >> reporter: technology ceos from some of the biggest companies in tech meeting in trump tower this afternoon with the president-elect, donald trump and a number of cabinet members and three of his children as well. what did they discuss? the attendees included ginny rometty, jeryl shaandberg, elon musk, cisco's ceo, microsoft's ceo. a who's who of silicon valley and beyond. topics included jobs, immigration and china. those were the major topics for someone familiar with what's discussed inside. characterized as friendly. they covered a lot of ground and it was productive. sub topics included security.
i wasn apple tangled a bit with the obama administration over encryption in imessage and whether they would crack the iphone operating system. vocational education was a subtopic, what would tech do to bring more middle america into the fold with the growth that tech brought to the economy and repatriation, bringing foreign profits back to the united states at a lower tax rate than they would have to under the current rules. a lot of ceos would like to see that. a number of companies including apple, oracle and cisco have hundreds of billions of dollars in foreign profits that are overseas that they would like to come back. the ceos did not speak to the press on their way out when they came down the elevators and out of the lobbies. i did follow larry page and eric schmit of google out the front doors, asked good meeting?
you're not going to say nothing? no thanks was the response. we'll have to see if these more informal conversations translate to technology policy after january 20th when president-elect trump becomes president trump. i'm jon fortt in new york. yahoo! has been hit by the biggest cyberattack in history calling into question the acquisition of its internet business by verizon. the company said over a billion accounts were affected in august of 2013. that is twice the number hit in i first ma its first major breach in 2014. after the wireless company learned of the original hack in october, verizon said it might withdraw from the $4.83 billion deal. coming up on "street signs," it's our favorite italian plumber. he's been given a new lease on life. but will the release of the modern super mario bros game
welcome back to "street signs." looking at live pictures of the swiss national bank, where chairman thomas jordan is delivering comments after the central bank made no change to its policy. however jordan is making comments on the fed decision. he says the u.s. fed decision shows the u.s. economy is on track which is a good sign. he is also commenting on questions surrounding the ecb saying that the snb is not a slave to ecb action. this comes after the snb did say the swiss franc was overvalued. jordan saying over time having interest rates and global monetary policy normalize will
make it easier for the snb. we will speak to thomas jordan later on today. carolin roth will bring us that interview. u.s. prosecutors are hoping to reach a criminal settlement with volkswagen more than a year after volkswagen admitted to emissions cheating. the federal prosecutors are said to be eager to reach a settlement before the end of the obama administration. as vw attempts to move on from the diesel emissions scandal. market share was up in november compared to the same month last year. but the namesake brand market share was still down slightly. and as promised, we're bringing you all the details of a new game coming from nintendo. they're bringing the favorite italian plumber back to life with its release of super mario run. i love that music. modern edition of its 1985 classic, super mario brothers game. from today iphone and ipad users can download the game from the
apple app store for $9.99. a big question is whether mario will run up nintendo's shares, which have risen 55% over the past year. this is down to the success of its pokemon go mobile game released in july. i' just in time for christmas. the gold coin seeking mario would be interested to know that spot gold hit a ten month low following the u.s. federal reserve's quarter point interest rate hike on wednesday. let's bring in the head of commodity research at commerzbank joining us from frankfurt. thank you for joining us. people are looking at the moves in gold, that drop after the fed move a bit of a recovery and wondering where we go next. what do you think? >> it's the perfect storm at the moment. the situation is quite similar to the situation last year, expectation of rising interest rates on one side, probably
equity markets on the other side and heavy u.s. dollar. this is all weighing on the gold prices. definitely. i would like to also comment on the super mario as well. it makes sense not to look only at gold in terms of u.s. dollar but also in euro terms, super mario is one of the reasons for the weakness of euro. in euro the gold prices are still hovering at around 1,100 euro, which is still a pretty good run over the last years thanks to the actions of the central bank. >> that the play? to invest in non-dollar denominated gold? >> definitely. it makes sense for the european investors, for the japanese investors to stick to the gold coins, probably increase their holdings going forward.
i think in dollar terms we are close to the bottom, though i would probably on a timeline wait for the prices probably to drop some what below $1100, and the rest of the optimists going off the board in gold, i think the gold prices are likely to recover next year. >> a big part of this is to what extent we see an uptick in inflation because that, of course, has been the big trade state side. but a different story here in europe you might say. >> yeah. that's very, very good point you're bringing. should the inflation and the inflation expectations peak, they peaked dramatically in the u.s., but peak further then we are likely to have anticipation where the real interest rates remain extremely under water, extremely negative. in this situation gold, as a noninterest-bearing asset but on the other hand it doesn't also
cost you money. doesn't cost you real interest. that might come back into focus again. i think we're likely to bottom at the -- around or below 1100 u.s. dollars, but should recover next year to the levels probably at 1100 in the middle of the year, and probably 1200 to $1300 by the end of next year. >> thank you for those price forecasts. we'll give you a shot of u.s. futures before we say good-bye. this is the picture. green arrows across the board. modest increases at this hour. thanks for watching. "worldwide exchange" is coming up next.
good morning. 20,000 another day. the dow 's march to that key milestone will take a bit longer. historic hack, yahoo! discloses another data breach of a billion accounts. is its deal with verizon in trouble. and officials say putin was personally involved in the covert campaign to interfere with the u.s. presidential election. it's thursday december 15, 2016, "worldwide exchange" begins right now. ♪
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