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tv   Fast Money  CNBC  February 1, 2017 5:00pm-6:01pm EST

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last quarter, amazon disappointed big time on the bottom line. the profit came in a lot lower than the analysts. that's always the tricky one when it comes to amazon. we'll be looking for the cloud business which has been growing like gang busters as well. >> that's all for tomorrow. that's "closing bell." "fast money" begins right now. live from times square. tonight on "fast," investors are pouring into one of the richest areas of the market but they could be making a big mistake. he'll tell us what has him so nervous. plus one group of stocks had a big decline but investors are buying shares any way. and later the one surging dow stock that pete nagerian says you can still buy.
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the stock in fact surging to an all time high and we're all over that story. julian boorstin just spoke with them and tell us what they said and she'll be monitoring the web cast. we start with our traders. so pete, what did you think? >> i think they did what they've been doing quarter after quarter and mobile continues to be the growth area. when you really look at what they've been able to build, it's incredible. now going forward, we have to start focusing on what's next. we're always lookinging for what's next. that's probably what's app, ways to figure out instagram in terms of monetizing better. i think they can do it is that clearly they're killing in it mobile. >> yeah. so love facebook, the metrics are really great. it might appear to be expensive but i don't think it is expensive. these numbers are phenomenal and
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they have been for a while. the growth, the rate of growth may be slowing a little on some metrics. i like it right here. i don't know that i would buy it but i certainly would not sell it. they did have that judgment this afternoon. we'll see if this is the end of that story or not. the 500 million doesn't really change the facebook story. i lying it. i'm hanging on to it. >> so advertising revenues are strong. bigger compared to a year ago. >> quarter after quarter, year after year. and all the numbers, the number that stuck out to me the most, operating margins came in. 63.5%. more like 60%. i want to say it is a record. i don't know that categorically. if not, it's pretty close. we've been pretty steadfast on facebook for a while. if you need any level to trade against, the previous high was
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133.5 i believe on october 25th. and then the stock sold off somewhat precipitously. you need on trade against something, you trade against that. otherwise, you still let it ride. >> what is a glass half full? >> when he said we've been all over it, he men you guys. >> that's not true. >> this is not a good day for me. i look at a story like this. last quarter they had 1.8 billion monthly active users. and then if you noticed earlier in the week, the "wall street journal" ran a story about how it is a major bush and this has been going on to get into china them need on get unblocked in china. that is their next growth outlet. at some point the developed world gets sat wratd that main facebook page. what did they do? they bought instagram.
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then two years later they bought what's app. these the levers of growth. if all that doesn't happen, and then they -- >> all that meaning occulus. >> when you are having sales growth decelerate from 53% last year to 33% this year. they can't get in china. they're willing to fake sponsored news by the chinese government. they can't get a handle of russian sponsored news in the u.s. that's something that could do it. >> when you see the growth, depending on what metric you want to look. a 18%, 23%, 24%. you have that kind of growth, and by the way. the one that they didn't get. the one that got away was snap chat. there was an opportunity. there he tried to pay $3 billion. backed away and said no way. don't you feel like they can figure out the modernization process of all the acquisitions? >> how do they monetize direct
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mentioning app? >> instagram. it is crushing it right now. how they're doing it now. >> video, facebook live. that was a thing we heard about a little bit in the spring and the summer and we're not watching watermelons explode on facebook live anymore. so the point is, there's only so many internet users on the planet. they have 8.6 billion of them. if they can't get into china. >> is clean part of the growth story? >> they have about 27% eps growth for my math. i was not great at math. >> we know. >> but it is around 28, 27 times. it is not ridiculously expensive
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stock. even if they muddle along, i think the stock kind of strong. >> i think the snap chat thing we heard, pulling dollars away. i think it will take valuation within faeb. if you feel certain that eventually it is right around the corner and it's not going to happen. >> it will trade about 25 times its expected $1 billion sales this year. that had happen or that's what's being reported. at some possibly, they had $27 billion in sales. at some point, snap chat will be a big part of it. they're going public so they can do the things that zuckerberg did with what's app and they're moving into wearables. >> what did you say? 20 times revenue.
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>> sales. when you think about what they do of. >> annoy idea what you're talking about. >> dog ears on their faces and then they puke rain bows. >> sadly, i do know what you're talking about. >> the erpgs sent it to record highs but that's no surprise to our chart master carter worth who said this last friday. >> you're either going on earnings breakout, netflix, or earnings disappoint and that. could you say it is 50/50 in you could. we'll bet that faeb cebook is gg to exceed the high on its news. >> looks leak it is working out so far. what do you say now? >> earnings are binary. you can get it right or wrong.
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i think this marks the end of the run for tech. at left on an intermediate basis. let's look at that first. this is a chart from the depths of the bear market in 2009. we would all agree it is an uptrend. it moves from the bottom left to the top right of the screen. those lines are clear. what we know is that we've been in the top and the bottom of this channel. this is where you'll have some sort of giveback. i would hold that in the back of one's mind as we look at the facebook situation. first of all, hearing the chafrt xlk. the s&p 500 technology sector. we just looked it a. what is really important is even as it is doing it, these are new
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eyes. it is still underperforming the s&p. the relative performance to the standard and pouors. it is still underperforming. that's not good relative action. and we've had this huge bump. what takes it from here. we're up against the long term channel. relative performance is not ideal despite the good action in the names. not the greatest set-up. how good has it been? names, beat or miss, and the price action after. we just got one miss here. that's the one that's down. appleb applebee. >> many have faded and given it back. facebook, up somewhat. 3%. the point is we've heard from all these people. we're back up against the line. not the greatest set-up. whereas just for what it's worth. let's take the same picture of facebook. facebook is not back to the top of its range.
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i would say you have a ways to go in the aggregate. >> should we invite him over? >> nick, please bring in the chair for mr. carter. >> good to see you. >> are there some that look okay? >> there's latent potential and exploitation potential. they've and pended it. i would say that it can take this higher. and again, that long term chanel, i would say that. >> did you have a difficult question? >> did i. let's say, at the top it was 140. if writ to break above that, where do you see it go? you have to go back to your workshop. >> we're already above those. back to the 50/50.
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>> facebook has momentum now. they get the money back or someone who has made a lot of money. no one is unhappy. only one person is happy. >> or dan. >> that was a very definitive pushback. all those things made me want to sell it. >> so it did just gap above those prior highs. and we have amazon with the exact same chart set-up. apple is a little different. it has not gotten back to its prior highs. is there a chance that all of them fail at those prior highs and then that leaves the market lower? it's not growth. it's value. we do know that we've only got a few left.
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amazon only has a few left. this is a perfect thing on write call against. >> i'm going on may would you rather. >> apple or facebook. >> wow, you didn't even hesitate. >> i think he makes some good points about what i think facebook has to do going forward. >> as long as you look at services. they get better and per. it was 24%. >> it is a record quarter. a much smaller percentage. i'll not bigt. i heard you say, the stock was surging. it was a repricing of the stock. it had little to do about what was going on.
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>> 1 billion users and they have half the users that spotify has. >> so there's growth. >> the they take it to the other side. >> the apple thing was into earnings. i thought it was a really good chance it would trade to the 2015 high. as they pointed out, it was 134. i do think by the way, it continues to go higher. it is ready to take the next step higher for all the reasons. if you're making me choose, what you're doing by making me may the game would you rather. >> the essence of the game. >> i asked you yesterday. you're long. you're the last one. >> i suppose i like them both. >> no, no. to that.
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i think the most important thing, if you get opening pop, you have to grab it. whether it is trimming the shares outright. >> someone calls. >> it is a question. he didn't answer the question! >> they're equally good. >> what does the word rather mean to you? >> alternative facts. >> remember this stock hit an all time high holding in there at a gain of 2.25%. bp engineers use underwater robots, so they can keep watch over operations below the sea, even from thousands of feet above. because safety is never being satisfied. and always working to be better.
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hub. is ups in trouble? >> not only amazon, when credit is due, credit is due. also, their product mix is such that their margins are now worse. it is a very unhealthy brew going on. close to 16 times forward earnings, it is more expensive than federal expense. to answer your question, i think there's more pain to the down side. at a certain point it will get interesting. i don't think, it is down 3.5% after a day it is down big prior. and fedex is having issues as well. not just ups specific. all going back to the points about amazon. i don't think you have to rush in and buy it. despite the fact that i was a former employee and i crushed it. >> do you see that? >> brown is very becoming on you. >> in terms of being down graded, they make the point that there's no near term cat lift.
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ups will have to increase their infrastructure to keep one the level of packages going through. >> talk about the strong dollar being an issue as well. and they're on the lower end of margins because there's so much more on the residential side as opposed to business to business. hey, look. thousands of stocks out there. i don't think this is the area i would want to be investing in. >> the cigarette volume fell nearly 5% last quarter. declining at a faster rate. i guess all those psas about not smoking are not working. don't smoke. another psa. look at this. all up by 6% or more so far this year. >> i love cash flow. these have great cash flow dynamics. but i can't get that excited about the space. the dividend was the floor here for a long time while we were in
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that phase of the market. plus, our new president hates smoking. i would not be shocked the see some sort of anti-smoking tweet. >> let's say there is an ann smoking tweet. does that make you want to go to phillip morris? that's international smoking. not domestic. >> if he were to tweet something with tobacco or tobacco products, i think it's shoot first. ask questions later. and i think the entire space, not unlike what happened to biotech six or seven months ago. >> the stock gap down after this morning, it was below 70. one of the things that was interesting. it closed near the highs. when you look at that prior high. that was setting up, if that stock had closed below 70, just on a pure technical standpoint, that could have been impressive. i think you make a good point
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about the international once. >> does that pique your interest? >> i'm with you. you should not be smoking. >> it's terrible. >> look at pete najarian. look at that. don't smoke. still ahead, facebook hitting a new high. you won't want to miss out on what facebook the mark zuckerberg has to say. you're watching cnbc. first in business worldwide. in the meantime, here's what's coming up. ♪ everybody was kung fu fighting ♪ >> if you're worried about more losses, we have the one place to hide out. >> plus, pete is bringing the heat. serving up the pitch for what he says is a must-own surging dow stock.
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tech was big winner as apple shares soared more than 6%. the big story of the night. facebook out with earnings in the afterhour session. that stock hitting a new high butback off slightly. we'll hear from mark zuckerberg on what's behind the rally. and it is not facebook. quietly, another social media stock is beating the market. we'll give you the name and how to play it. but first, treasury yields rising after a slew of strong economic data. it comes after the fed held its first meetings after donald trump became president and
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offering what many call dovish territory. the exception of one group of bonds often deemed the rickiest. high yield or junk bonds. could they actually be one of the safest plays for fixed income investors? this is the head of the high yield strategy. always good to see you. so this ill applies that there is some risk embedded in the other parts of fixed income. >> i think that's fair. it is amazing how far we've come over the course of a year. 12 months ago the world was falling apart high. yield was blowing up. and here we are talking about high yield being a place to hide out. >> the benefit to it. it does have a higher spread cushion to absorb higher rates. so if the bank of america view is that we'll go higher on treasuries, then high yield is uniquely positioned to absorb that. assuming there isn't a major
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fundamental shift in earnings, quality, leverage. so in the near term if it is purely rates, high yield isn't a bad place for that. >> so what is that cushion and how does it vary? >> so the cushion is about 400 basis points. the way to think about it, 400 more than five-year treasuries at colonel. so if they went up 50 basis points, it is probably not a huge yield. you could go from 400 to 350. the yield doesn't change and of course because of price yield relationship, it doesn't change and you're able to earn your income. investment grade, for example, you have a smaller spread cushion. so as it goes up you won't be going any higher. as an example. so that's why high yield looks pretty well positioned.
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so you'll get a lot of variation as well. it is why we like telecome and high yield and not necessarily autos. >> so the energy spread. where was it and where is it now and would you want to own that spread now? >> it is phenomenal. when we look at energy, today it trades inside of the index, as a tighter spread than the overall index. it is one of the reasons we downgraded energy from overweight, it came in overweight energy. we down graded to market rate. you have a much higher quality portfolio than a year ago. 26% of all energy bonds default in the last 12 months. so a quarter of the market is gone. >> so what wouldn't you touch? retailers? how do they look? >> yeah. so retailers are a tough place.
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going through some very tough shifts. valuations are such pits already compensated for some of the problem areas. so we don't love tech. border adjustment, a stronger dollar will affect tech. a lot of sales outside the united states. so as we look at it, we don't love tech. we don't love autos and auto parts because of tight spreads. and retail. >> i don't know if you run into the auto analysts. >> every day. >> i'm wonder figure there is a difference in how the high yield market is viewing tech versus how an equity analyst might be viewing tech. if you have that conversation. >> we do. we all converse all the time.
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the one thing you have to remember in high yield, it is a very different set of companies than let's say the s&p 500. this is men maloverlap. if you are hook at it in high yield, you are comparing it more to the auto parts and suppliers. there's not a tremendous am of overlap. think of gm and ford. downgraded in 2005 but we've upgraded since. smaller cap issuers so there's not a ton of overlap. >> great to see you. guy adami, what would you glean? i think it is interesting that small cams widely seem to be huge beneficiaries. they pay the most tax to the highest rates. >> what i gleaned from this, it was february 11th, a 84 ago when
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the s&p 500 traded to 1810. we were talking about the potential for high yield to blow up. not only our markets but markets across the world and how quickly they seemingly heal themselves. and they've been on it by the way as well. i think in small caps, the stocks, and i'll say the again. everything second accurate. iwm, as long as it is above 130, i think you're fine. >> let talk about where you can go. outside the bond markets. >> it is a new stock for me, in 2017, but gm. when you look at the valuation it's trading at, you look at the january numbers from gm, the transaction numbers were gaining. they're selling the right
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vehicles. it seems to me they were focusing far board profit rather than just volumes. and because of that, i like that particular space. i know they can go down from here but i think this will end up being a very long term hold. >> i like gm. for me, they're doing long term contracts. this is a yield of almost 10. they got obliterated at the end of the last year. i like it here. >> doubt they're going to have to adjust that downwards? >> ever, who knows? the outlook is good and i'm help a to it back. >> it's pfizer. i was routinely taking calls. taking in more yield. the current yield is 4%
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annually. this is all the things that we talked about. border taxes. this is one that i might start dog it again. if you can buy it. you get a super yield. >> a super yield. >> we talked about that last night. >> sure. 15 call. president trump was talking about rolling back regulation. if you look at it today, that traded up significantly and i think it goes higher as well. my pick for this? >> i'm not going on ask you that.
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verizon had a miserable summer. the stock went from 55 to 45 from basically july into september. rallied back. and now january has been a disastrous month for a number of different reasons. here at $48 with a 4.65 dividend. they just bought a fiberoptics business. this whole charter thing does happen and i think it gets them right back in the game. if you're looking for a stock, this will get you there. >> can we get a break? i need -- >> facebook slayers getting a new high. >> the conference call underway. remember apple shares yesterday. you won't want to miss a moment of our coverage of that call. plus,ett just hit a one-year. can he convince them to be on that bandwagon?
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retailers down grading. those shares lower by about 3%. on the flip side, coach with
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growing momentum in the company outlet stores. they are up more than 8% while kors, down about 3%. >> i'm long on kors. i think the reason that coach is doing better is it managed to turn the comps. we need to see that from kors. the bar has been set so low here, it is trading at multiples that are half of where kors and coach is and where canada or ralph lauren is. i believe they're reporting february 7. >> why do you think there's such a difference? the trouble with the department stores would also hit coach. >> they've both been pulling back to control their goods. i see that for both. >> time for fast pitcher.
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one of them pitches and whether they're buying or selling the pitch. what are you pitching? >> i'm pitching to you disney. what i like is just about everything. it has not a stock that i've been in for, it is a stock i've been in for quite a while. you start with fundamentals. i like that the dividend bill as well as the share buybacks. they are extremely share friendly company. even though stock has been moving up from the mid 90s to where it is right now, the stock from a valuation perspective is not stretched at all. sach sax in the middle of january had a piece out. they talked about this studio, the line-up for 15 and 18 might be the best ever. that means a lot to me as well so the studio has been strong. espn. there have been some head winds but i think it is starting to abate.
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the skinny bundles, all of it. i think it was overplayed and that's why it is moving to the jp side. the combination of all those things and one last thing. back in november. some huge call activity. they were buying the 105s in february. then 12,000 in the middle of january. they started buying more in june. the 115s. they bought again today the 120s. despite the stock has moved, this is still an upsight. >> if question he would mention. does it deserve the premium that it tens to get? >> i think it does. the reason i think it deserves the premium, when you factor in the parks and what we're seeing right now, that will be a growth area of shanghai. that just open this past year. the combination of that adds fuel and margin to the story. >> all right. so this thing, it looks a lot
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like apple. and facebook. >> apple the way you view apple? >> no no. i men the price action over the course of the last year and a half. it topped out in 2015. you think this is going back to those highs? >> i think it tests those highs. i think just because the fundamental story is there and the head winds of espn as much as they were there, i think they're starting to pullback. >> so let's vote. ready with the white boards? okay. >> he love pete. it is very hard to bet against pete and this is an outstanding company of i continue to be concerned about espn. great company but i'm not buying it. >> i don't really love pete. when i look at what apple did, a
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surge, i think this stock has the opportunity to get there. i think you might want to buy call spreads. you my want to buy something closer to the money and sell it out of the money. have a call spread. >> or own the stock and sell the call. >> that's very pete-like. >> so funny. so what level did pete mention they were buying calls in june? did you pay attention? what price? you were not paying attention. disney. rallies into 2/7 earnings. fails at $120. i think even pete would say if it gets on $120, you're taking chips off the table. so this is what i think happens. this is a very sill hard outlook a toss what dan mentions with apple. giddyap. >> nice guy.
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i put 120 before he said it. >> did he really? >> he did. >> we'll tell you, twitter shares taking a hit today. and traders are expecting a huge move ahead of next week. you're watching "fast money" on cnbc.
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and add phone and tv for only $34.90 more a month. call today. comcast business. built for business. julia is in l.a. what's the latest here? >> hey, before i tell you the haste from mark zuckerberg, i want to tell you the haste from cfo david wayner which gives us an idea. he said facebook continues to expect revenue growth to come down in 2017 and they say 2017 will be an aggressive investment year. he said they're going through some very tough comparisons. mark zuckerberg has been talking
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on the call. they're mostly focused on short form video and on sharing revenue with contend creators. >> we're looking for ways to grow the video content on facebook. we want people to think of it as a place for interesting content. last year we started to invest in more original video content. we're planning to do more in 2017. >> zuckerberg didn't hesitate on address criticism that facebook enabled the spread of fake news in the political cycle. >> we don't write the news that you read but we want to be a place people can access the information. this is a responsibility that we take very seriously. in the past, we've taken step and now we're approaching misinformation and homes the same way. >> about an hour and a half ago facebook issued a statement. this was a ruling about a $500
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million judgment levied against oculus. they said the heart of this case was about whether it stole the trade secrets and the jury found decisively in our favor. we're obviously disappointed by a few other aspects of the verdict and we look forward to identifying our appeal. facebook hand discussed the verdict yet though did he stay hand controls have been well received. >> thank you very much. julia boorstin. this almost feels like repeat of the last earnings call. everything was coming up roses and then conference call gets underway. they said they'll do it in 2017. they're reiterating it. and you've been right and wrong in the stock. these are the things that i want to see them do. i want to see them figure out
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how to invest to monetize it. that's how they get it to be the next apple. >> i agree. google, too. people were disappointed with it being spend. i was not. in the near term, maybe to your point. people think, i really want to see something soon. >> right. so the ad revenue growth rate will come down in 2017. gas expenses will be up. if you count 40% to 50%. i know we were jousting around that and that was one of the first topics. it is something they are focused on. those areors they can sell high.
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it is interesting. but to spend. it is not surprising at all. it shouldn't come as a surprise but it seems like, holy smokes. now there's a little selling pressure. >> you should be happy that they're playing the long game and not just concerned about guidance for the next quarter or the next couple quarters. and i agree. you said it looks eerily reminiscent to the last quarter. last quarter it went 133 and a half, it was at 117. >> i think a lot of that was, remember the tech crash post election. they all got thrown out with the bath water. this one probably more than others. >> and what level. we're ticking lower. i don't want to make too much of a big deal out of it but now we're up .8%. what point do we get concerned?
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>> you don't to have get concerned. a lot of people believe in this story. they think it is a 25-year story. >> he hated out the ten-year story. let's hear it. we heard that you had a plan for siri and voice five years ago and we don't know what that plan is. this guy lays it out. e-lon musk lays it out. >> on twitter if you're buying facebook off the earnings report. here are terngs. 46% of you said yes. 55% of you said no. it seems split here. >> with earnings in full we know is, making a big bet on twitter ahead of the earnings report. so dan, what did you see? >> well, the call volume was two
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times. and i know that gets pete interested. the company does not report earnings until next move. it is about 10%. the stock has moved about 12% the day after earnings. so this is one that we know has been very volatile. we know this is been a lot of disappointment in the engagement and groetss. obviously management turnover. when i look at this stock and i look at the potential for an upside move. we know that sentiment is just horrible. there are only five biratings. about eight sales. 7.5% short interest. nobody loves it. it trades about 4 1/2 times sales. so it is kind of cheap.
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they who's a lot of money on a gap basis. i see a lot of technical support. this is about the sale process. i see a hill of a head and shoulders top here. i do believe 16 should be good support. tech nickly and on a valuation basis. especially when we see snap chats. it will be 20 to 25 times sales. and i want to remember, remember this. this is what the chart looks like since the ipo. so at the end of the day, i don't know how much they can sell this off. i don't think expectations are particularly high. we'll take a closer look next week prior to results. this is really at a level they could snap it up. >> who is shocked -- >> i don't know if it is facebook. listen. think about right now what's going on. the public policy is taking place on twitter. like it or not. twitter, you have to be on twitter.
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you have to have some access to it to find out what's going on. somebody is going to figure out how to monetize that. >> and you don't think -- >> it is the winner in materials of jack. jack's focus, just to me it is obvious. not on twitter. at some point it gets sold. i'm not sure who it is but it makes sense. >> all right. check out the full show on fridays. up next, the one tech stock down since earnings. karen says that's why it is time to buy. [pony neighing] what? hey gary. oh. what's with the dog-sized horse? i'm crazy stressed trying to figure out this complex trade so i brought in my comfort pony, warren, to help me deal. isn't that right warren? well, you could get support from thinkorswim's in-app chat. it lets you chat and share your screen directly with a live person right from the app,
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♪ ♪
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♪ disney hit 52-week highs today. it will keep going higher. giddyap. >> a couple days ago we talked about is the trump pullback enough? not yet but a couple other days added on. i think it is time. >> ups got as low today. >> feisty show.
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>> feisty. wow! >> thermo fisher, not one we talk about. >> for good reason. i think it goes higher. >> thanks for watching. see you tomorrow for more "fast money."


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